This special election poll for PA-18 is astoundingly close:
Saccone holds a 49% to 46% edge over Democrat Conor Lamb in the race to fill the open House seat on March 13, using a turnout model similar to voting patterns seen in other special elections over the past year.
This is an R +11 district. Democrats currently hold a grand total of one district with a Cook PVI of more than R +5. Remember R+11 means that on average a Republican Congressman wins by 22 points. To be within 3 or 5 is just remarkable.
If Lamb wins this, it’s a political earthquake. I’ve upped our goal for this race to 15K. It’s a good investment since Lamb isn’t taking any outside money and total Democratic spending in this race looks to be something like one-fiftieth what was spent on the Ossoff race.
Yutsano
I honestly don’t trust polls anymore. This one is gonna be all ground game.
Comrade Colette Collaboratrice
Donated and done. Thanks, Doug! Go blue.
Jumbo76
Can we talk about the fact the Chuck Schumer is backing an immigration bill that funds a border wall? This is offensive to me. . . Maybe that makes me a crazy liberal, but this seems like a good time for blue staters to start calling their senators and telling them to vote against the “Common Sense” plan. They’re trying to pass this with Democratic votes.
DougJ
@Yutsano:
Yup
Nicole
Thanks, Doug, for the reminder! Donated.
DougJ
@Comrade Colette Collaboratrice:
Thank you!
Nicole
@Jumbo76: So much more than $$ stands in between the idea of a border wall and a real border wall, eminent domain being just one of the thorny issues. I think Schumer is calculating he can get some stuff for agreeing to something that will never come to be because everyone wants a border wall, right up until the point where it’s THEIR property being taken for it.
patroclus
The Senate has just started voting on cloture for McCain-Coombs – it has a decent chance of the 60 votes needed. As as a back-up, Rounds-King has a chance as well – it’s not as “clean” but would still be a step forward. This could be a very good day for the Dreamers!! Dreamers! Dreamers!! Dreamers!!!
patroclus
@Jumbo76: Rounds-King, which is the back-up plan if McCain-Coons goes down, authorizes $20 billionish for border security, but conditions any funds for a physical barrier on an annual DHS certification which obviously wouldn’t be forthcoming from a sane President. So essentially, it’s only providing 1-year funding. I suggest that you read the bill.
Major Major Major Major
@Nicole: even if they manage to get through the eminent domain challenges, we’re talking about a Republican Administration, and trump’s to boot, so it would never actually be built, the contractors would spend it on hookers and blow, and somehow manage to electrocute some soldiers in the process.
ETA and, of course, when you lose an election due partly to too many of your erstwhile supporters being bitchy purity ponies, you have to make gross compromises.
tobie
@patroclus: Fingers crossed for Dreamers! It would be beyond fantastic if McCain-Coons passed.
patroclus
%&#@$!!! McCain-Coons goes down. Not enough Republican support. They own this now. I think they’ll vote that reprehensible Grassley thing down next and then the real test on Rounds-King.
Feebog
A Wall is never going to be built in any meaningful sense. Twenty billion in additional border security with some of that going toward a wall for a path to citizenship for thousands of dreamers is a decent compromise.
Jumbo76
@patroclus:
Rounds-King ant the one getting Schumer’s blessing today. He might back it, I don’t know, but he is pushing the “Common Sense” plan, which is back by Collins and Manchin. It would authorize $25 billion for a border wall. Schumer has called this a good “compromise.”
Amir Khalid
@Yutsano:
I can’t send money so I send good wishes and encouragement.
You Democrats should just keep on keepin’ on with that ground game; it’s been gaining the yards for you. What I’ve seen reported here of the polling seems to show Democratic candidates generally gaining on Republicans even in the latter party’s strongholds. And the recent special-election results are heartening. How did that slogan go? “Fired up! Ready to go!”
Major Major Major Major
@patroclus: Newell’s analysis at Slate, which I read this morning, is that the whole thing is a set-up to make the Grassley bill the “this or nothing” option at the end.
tobie
@patroclus: Just saw the voting on C-Span. This is so depressing.
Nicole
@Major Major Major Major: All true. Politics is the art of the possible. Amazing how so many purity ponies don’t want to accept that.
WaterGirl
@Amir Khalid: March 13, a little less than a month away. If we can win this one, I will pull out Yes. We. Can.
JMG
I have read that the national Democrats are reluctant to spend a lot of money in this race because court-ordered redistricting might change its boundaries in ways that cannot be predicted with another election coming in November.
PS: No Democrats should vote for the Grassley bill.
patroclus
@Major Major Major Major: The Grassley thing is a piece of dung. All hopes now rest on Rounds-King. As mentioned above, it authorizes funding for border security (appropriations would or would not follow), it delays the ability of the Dreamers to sponsor their parents or other family members until they become actual citizens and it alters the visa lottery. Nowhere near as “clean” as McCain-Coons or Graham-Durbin but still acceptable (to me) – it’s got a 12-year path to citizenship and it prioritizes DHS enforcement against others than anyone who arrives by 6/18.
Major Major Major Major
@patroclus: the Grassley bill is just what trump wants, yeah. And it’ll probably be the last bill standing, and then it won’t get cloture, but Mitchy can throw up his hands and say he tried but there’s just no compromising with these amnesty-loving illegal-humping sanctuary demonrats.
patroclus
@tobie: We only got 52 and needed 60. The Toomey monstrosity is next up.
tobie
@patroclus: The Toomey bill is that ridiculous one about withholding funding from so-called Sanctuary Cities. Right?
patroclus
@tobie: Yes. It’s a waste of time. Like Rahm’s gonna take his police off real crime and round up half the City of Chicago for ICE.
rikyrah
@JMG:
Stop with the phucking excuses, Dems… GO.ALL.IN!
tobie
Thanks Doug for the fundraising link. I gave because at this moment everything in our country is a binary choice and it would be terrific if a D could win in this R+11 district.
Percysowner
Of course Trump has pretty much already said he’s not going to support anything that isn’t exactly what he wants Trump Administration Moves To Preemptively Kill DACA’s Last Best Chance
marcopolo
@JMG: That is also what I’ve read. Since Gov. Wolfe rejected the new “even more” gerrymandered replacement map that the Rs produced under the court order, I guess we wait to see what the Supreme Court produces. But it is entirely possible that the new map for this district might be more R or it might draw Conor Lamb out of the district. Also agree on the Senate DACA bill comments. And seriously, for anyone who is actually paying attention it is clear that McConnell, Ryan, and Trump do want to deport the Dreamers. The effing WH was whipping against any kind of compromise bill (including those lovely anonymous backgrounder interviews) as of this morning. Anyone saying otherwise can GDIAF.:
WaterGirl
@rikyrah: Plus, the race is less than 30 days away. Ballots will have been printed, and if there’s early voting people will have started voting. Not sure how any redistricting can affect the election on March 13.
But I agree, we have to go hard for every single special election.
? ?? Goku (aka Baka Amerikahito) ? ?
Sorry to be negative, but given the shooting and that idiot father’s bullshit response and the cluster in the Senate right now with Dreamers, this country deserves to collapse. Perhaps I can emigrate to Canada as a refugee. We’re going to commit massive human rights violations and nobody can do anything about it.
Percysowner
Also I donated. I tried to edit my original comment but it wouldn’t let me.
Humdog
Doug, R+11 means plus eleven, not plus 22. Like R 55, D 44. What did you mean?
glory b
@JMG: The proposed Repub lines draw Lamb out of the district, but PA (don’t know if this is true nationally) allows for a rep who lives outside the district. If Lamb loses the special election, he can’t run if his township is drawn out.
Nancy Pelosi, ever the pragmatist, said previously that she doesn’t mind Dems running against her as long as they vote the right way when they get to D.C.
patroclus
Toomey goes down. @marcopolo: They may want to deport the Dreamers, but two federal judges have stayed that and it ain’t happening. More likely is that even Rounds-King goes down and nothing gets done and we wander off into a legal morass and the Dreamers into limboland until after the midterms when we can try again.
schrodingers_cat
@Major Major Major Major: I agree with Ezra Klein.
burnspbesq
@Jumbo76:
There is no DACA fix without funding for border security. HOLD YOUR FUCKING NOSE AND DO THE RIGHT THING, DAMMIT.
James E. Powell
@JMG:
That’s just stupid. Stupid and crazy. Winning is always better.
efgoldman
@Jumbo76:
Schumer is no dummy. Maybe the bill gets thru this way,. Authorizing is one thing, actually funding is a budget matter.
? ?? Goku (aka Baka Amerikahito) ? ?
@? ?? Goku (aka Baka Amerikahito) ? ?:
Whoops, I did forget about that court decision staying deportations of Dreamers.
Mnemosyne
@patroclus:
I doubt they have enough Polish speakers on the Cook County jail staff to handle that many illegal immigrants at one time.
Because, yeah, any illegal immigration sweep in Chicago is going to pick up more Polish speakers than Spanish speakers.
mai naem mobile
Give the Orange Asshole his fucking wall if that gets you the Dreamers. If the Dems get the House back next year they can dick around with the funding so that it doesn’t happen.
Honestly, I don’t think the Republicans want any results. They’re just screwing around trying to make it look like they want to do something. Just like gun violence.
patroclus
This it – Rounds-King vote now. We need 11 Republicans.
(In Chi-town, it’s not just the Poles and Latinos – we’ve got Romanians and Kazhaki and Pakistani and Serbs and Malaysians and Cambodians and Indonesians and Indians and well, you name it, we’ve got em).
DougJ
@Humdog:
No it means R 61 D 39
Major Major Major Major
@schrodingers_cat: yep.
Did you take a break btw? Welcome back if so.
marcopolo
@patroclus: I could live with DACA being tied up in the courts for another year. I don’t trust the @sshole administration & ICE not to try to deport as many of these folks as they can in the meantime, though.
Also too, I donated. Third time to Conor for me, and I am pretty sure I will be going well over the Dem campaign contribution budget I set for myself on New Year Day.
In MO news, my Indivisible group will be starting up two new postcard writing campaigns this month. And it won’t be GOTV this time. The first is to Dem voters in MO-8 asking them to step forward and volunteer for Kathy Ellis who is the only Dem in the race to swing the seat. The second (and I think this is kind of cool) is writing postcards to people who were previously registered D in another state but who have now moved to MO and appear to be unregistered. We will be asking them to register and join us in voting out Rs in November.
Jumbo76
@patroclus:
You’ve mischaracterized the Rounds-King bill a bit. It actually appropriates $25 billion for border security, including a wall, but only $2.5 billion is available in any given year, subject to reports from DHS on the use of the money. I can see your argument in favor of this, but it doesn’t really answer the big question for me. We are giving in to Trump’s demand for a border wall. There is really no way to see this as anything but a compromise with bigotry. Maybe that compromise is acceptable in this circumstance given that the funding is limited and controlled in certain ways. But when do we actually stop compromising with bigotry? How is Chuck Schumer et al going to move the ball forward?
You all can call me a purity pony, if you want, but there has to be some other component here. Something where we actually fight back against the toxic bigotry that lead to Trump’s election in the first place. Where is that?
TenguPhule
@patroclus:
Trump is threatening a veto.
WaterGirl
@schrodingers_cat: I am taking photos of the pups – thought I would send them to Adam and see if he would think about putting them up on a thread on Friday evening.
? ?? Goku (aka Baka Amerikahito) ? ?
@Major Major Major Major:
Can ask you a writing question? Do you have advice on avoiding creating mary sue characters? I kind of know that a good character has flaws that actually tangibly matter to the plot.
sherparick1
@Major Major Major Major: Then nothing.
Major Major Major Major
@Jumbo76:
Gosh yeah if only there were some sort of recurring front-page thread raising money for pro-DACA democrats trying to expand the electoral map
TenguPhule
@? ?? Goku (aka Baka Amerikahito) ? ?:
Going? They’re already happening. Have been since 2001.
WaterGirl
@Jumbo76:
Are you forgetting that the Republicans are in charge of ALL 3 branches of government? Stomping our feet and saying this isn’t right isn’t going to get us anywhere.
Jumbo76
@efgoldman:
It appropriates funds for a border wall.
efgoldman
@Nicole:
Politicians do politics. Doctors do medicine. Bank robbers rob banks.
Purity ponies see one of these statements as not true.
Fuckem
TenguPhule
@patroclus:
And guess who will be blamed.
Hint, not the Republicans.
burnspbesq
@TenguPhule:
Let him veto it. We can hang that around the necks of every Republican candidate in the fall.
Jumbo76
@WaterGirl:
No, I’m not forgetting that.
TenguPhule
@WaterGirl:
The problem of course is that Republicans actually did this from 2008 onwards…and look where they are now.
? ?? Goku (aka Baka Amerikahito) ? ?
@Jumbo76:
By winning more seats. That’s literally it. Right now, as Adam L. Silverman has said before, we’re in a holding pattern and there’s only so much Democrats can do in the meantime. The R’s control the agenda right now because they have the majority. Until that changes don’t expect miracles.
Major Major Major Major
@? ?? Goku (aka Baka Amerikahito) ? ?: not necessarily, that’s only strictly necessary for tragedy. As for avoiding a Mary Sue, they’re usually so obvious (again strictly defined) that I can’t imagine you’d have a problem.
Steve in the ATL
@Major Major Major Major:
This is good stuff. You should be a writer.
Jumbo76
@Major Major Major Major:
Point wasn’t about this blog.
patroclus
@Jumbo76: No, this is not an appropriations bill – one cannot legislate on an appropriations bill nor can one appropriate on an authorization bill. Further appropriations would still be required in every year and every Congress can change it’s mind. So, Rounds-King is only really for 1 year and subsequent years would require a DHS certification and the leadership of the DHS changes with every administration. Rounds-King is the obvious deal – 1 year of border security for Dreamer citizenship in 10-12 years.
dmsilev
@TenguPhule:
Assuming it passes the Senate, I see two possibilities. Either Ryan allows a House vote and Trump folds on his veto threat, or Ryan does a “well, the White House is opposed, so…” and there’s no vote in the House. I think the latter’s more likely. Ryan’s a weasel at best, and he’s also afraid of the anti-immigration zealots in his caucus.
TenguPhule
@? ?? Goku (aka Baka Amerikahito) ? ?:
1) Make sure their flaws are real. And that mistakes actually have consequences.
2) Hilarity should ensue at some point, if not, you’re probably doing it wrong.
Jumbo76
@? ?? Goku (aka Baka Amerikahito) ? ?:
Symbolic victories are useful.
MJS
@TenguPhule: Does anything that gets out of the Senate even make it through the House for a veto?
TenguPhule
@Jumbo76:
By compromising more. Until the pigs stare at the men and the men stare at the pigs and there appear to be no differences between them to an outside observer. /s
Major Major Major Major
@Jumbo76: so the problem is that Chuck Schumer isn’t taking an absolutist stance on ‘building’ a ‘border’ ‘wall’?
Jumbo76
@patroclus:
Dude, you told me to read the bill. I read the bill. It says it appropriates the money. It’s on page 49. “The following sum is appropriated . . .”
patroclus
Not looking good – the Republicans already have 38 no’s.
TenguPhule
And Wapo is reporting that Bannon is refusing to answer House committee questions by picking and choosing.
I don’t foresee the House Committee holding him in contempt any time soon though.
patroclus
53-40. Which Republican is going to kill it? And it’s Corker – the supposedly “reasonable” one. Well, that’s it – the Dreamers lose and the blame game will commence. Now, it’s up to the voters and we’ll see in the mid-terms.
marcopolo
So this is totally OT but it is 78 in St Louis right now in the middle of February. WTF!
? ?? Goku (aka Baka Amerikahito) ? ?
@Major Major Major Major:
I guess I meant that flaws need to be not shallow, like “X is ugly”.
? ?? Goku (aka Baka Amerikahito) ? ?
@TenguPhule:
Define real. As in flaws the reader can identify with?
glory b
@Jumbo76: “…but there has to be some other component here. Something where we actually fight back against the toxic bigotry that lead to Trump’s election in the first place. Where is that?”
If we knew, why wouldn’t we be using it?
Purity pony or not, I’m SICK of people saying “There must be something…” without a blessed idea of what it might be.
The other day I saw a roundtable discussion on Joy Reid’s show that included Lawrence O’Donnell, who worked for the Senate in his previous life. He was saying that the Senate rules let the minority say “No,” but no one cares what they say after that because they don’t have the power to enact something.
At times I listen to talk radio. I hear people on our side grouse about the Dems “letting” them pass the tax cut, etc., as if we could have done something to stop it.
Good on the hosts who push back on this, but it’s depressing to hear over and over that there is some magic and we could wave but instead we just sit on our hands.
ASV
R+11 means it’s 11 points more Republican than the country as a whole over (pulling from memory but not looking up) the last two presidential elections. That would mean an average GOP victory of about nine points, not 22.
rikyrah
Please read this thread, and then contemplate the cruelty of what Republicans have done with regard to healthcare. America should be better than this. https://t.co/pI2UZ3WR0r
— Joy Reid (@JoyAnnReid) February 14, 2018
My birthday is Feb 21.
I can’t afford my #healthcare after Feb. 28 because my monthly premium leapt to $1,978.10 in January.
I’m re-applying for #Medicaid and #SSDI, but no one should have to do this in America.
I am just one of millions.
— Victoria Brownworth (@VABVOX) February 14, 2018
Major Major Major Major
@? ?? Goku (aka Baka Amerikahito) ? ?: personally, and I know this sounds dumb, a character is like meeting a real person, and they reveal themselves to me as I write about things they do. So any flaws they have aren’t like you’re making a D&D character and need to pick two Flaws to balance out your extra Feat, but rather the sort of quirks and ‘flaws’ that anybody you’d meet around town is going to have. In genre this often has plot relevance but again not necessarily.
This obviously requires a lot of revision but it’s what works for me. I find that if I construct a character they come out feeling… constructed, just pieces of personality tacked on to their underlying narrative purpose.
Jumbo76
@Major Major Major Major:
That is my problem with this bill. As I said, I understand the compromise here, but we’re really saying that white supremacy is ok, because they’re not going to build an actual wall. The actual wall isn’t the problem for me. An actual wall wasn’t the issue for Trump either. It has always been the symbolism of the wall. So, sure, if we give a little symbolism to help 2 million people, yes, I get it. But when do we say we’re not compromising with bigotry?
efgoldman
@patroclus:
Can anything pass the house, or even get to the floor?
Frankensteinbeck
@? ?? Goku (aka Baka Amerikahito) ? ?:
Avoiding Mary Sue characters isn’t that hard. People love hyper-competent heroes and villains. They rarely even mind wish-fulfillment characters. It becomes an annoying Mary Sue when those traits are integral to some other writing failing. Unless people are going ‘But there is no reason for that to happen!’ or ‘You just destroyed the entire point of the story by being Better Than Everyone’, you’re good.
Peale
I’m just glad that there is finally an immigration vote. I’m tired of the GOP getting to run out the same 2 “moderate” faces and pretending that there’s this secret group of elected GOP members who are going to come through for immigration, although they never appear in public. I know it will be the usual “Democrat capitulation” and whatnot. But if you have to mobilize a vote against bigots, voters have to know that their senator or Congressman is actually a bigot.
Major Major Major Major
@Jumbo76: I don’t see congressional democrats tripping over each other in their rush to ban Muslims or keep trans people from pooping. There’s lots of disavowal of bigotry and refusal to compromise going around. My read is that people are willing to compromise on the wall—which is, yes, a symbol of white-supremacy-adjacent nativism—because the stakes are so high for the dreamers, and Dems feel a moral obligation to them specifically due to obama’s executive actions.
efgoldman
@? ?? Goku (aka Baka Amerikahito) ? ?:
Pay attention. It will be on the test and there are no Cliff’s Notes.
? ?? Goku (aka Baka Amerikahito) ? ?
@Frankensteinbeck:
That is true.
Could you give me an example?
patroclus
@Jumbo76: Dude, now I’ll suggest that you familiarize yourself with budgetary procedure in the U.S. – appropriations can only be made for one fiscal year.
The Grassley dungheap is up now and it’s going down for sure. So much for McConnell’s promise and Trump’s posturing on the issue. Based on what happened today, it should be clear to everyone that the Republicans just killed the Dreamers’ hopes. With their now-recorded votes. The deal was there – 1-year wall funding and a DACA fix. And the Republicans didn’t take it. At least it also stops the wall. And the Dreamers aren’t going away. Hopefully, the Dems will have more votes starting next January.
JMG
Nothing is going to get 60 votes. That was McConnell’s plan. Trump has made it clear he will attack any Republican who opposes him on immigration, so they’ll all shut up after this and keep their heads down, hoping that a chorus of “both sides” from the elite media will turn the issue into the usual blur for the usual blurry-visioned average voter. I hope one Democratic Senator has the guts to go on the floor and denounce the Republicans as the party of white supremacy that they are.
dmsilev
@efgoldman: It failed to meet the Senate’s filibuster threshold (54 in favor, 60 needed), so doesn’t even go to the House.
Edit: At least one version failed. Sorry. Many votes. Much confusion.
gene108
@Jumbo76:
Never.
Every Civil Rights law for the last 150 years has been a compromise with bigotry.
Our immigration laws, as they are, are a compromise with bigotry.
The immigration system cap the number of people, per year, who can get Green Cards from each country. Some countries, like India, China, Mexico and the Philippines, have years long waits, because that is where the demand to immigrate here is from, while there is no wait time for Norway, because Norway does not hit its country quota, since very few Norwegians immigrate here.
A simple fix is for Congress to do away with the country caps and allocate all available Green Cards to everyone waiting each year, i.e. the unused GC’s for Norwegians get allocated to people in waiting.
But we don’t do that, effectively limiting immigration from Latin America and Asia.
And this current system is a lot less bigoted than what Trump, Cotton, et. al. want to introduce.
Baud
@gene108: This is the correct answer.
H.E.Wolf
@Jumbo76:
When we’re out in our neighborhoods, college campuses, towns, and cities registering new voters, of course!
You’re working on GOTV in your local area, yes? If not, come on in; the water’s fine.
Patricia Kayden
Was looking through the Balloon Juice calendar. Cute!! Loved seeing all the beloved furries, but who the hell named their cat “Treacle”? Poor cat.
efgoldman
@glory b:
No one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public.
Mencken was a bastard, an anti-semite, and a racist but he was oh, so right
? ?? Goku (aka Baka Amerikahito) ? ?
@Major Major Major Major:
Yeah, the first draft is usually terrible and has to be revised. Another complaint I’ve heard of such characters is “Protagonist Centered Morality”, where the protag is always right even when another character makes a similar mistake and gets raked over the coals for it by the narrative. That one shouldn’t be too hard to avoid.
TenguPhule
@? ?? Goku (aka Baka Amerikahito) ? ?:
As in it is an actual flaw that hinders the character in a consistent fashion throughout the story, it should be something you as a writer can imagine in real life ideally and which is a crucial part of the character’s behavior in some shape or form and doesn’t go away just because it makes things harder for the character at any point in the story. And it should not be something that is solved (unless trying to fix it is part of the plot) and if it is solved, it should ideally lead to new complications and problems from the change.
Character flaws are one of the things that can win your readers over to the character, but its a fine line to walk.
Steve in the ATL
@patroclus:
Maybe he is running for reelection after all
Dorothy A. Winsor (formerly Iowa Old Lady)
@? ?? Goku (aka Baka Amerikahito) ? ?: It can be useful to have their flaw and their strength be two sides of the same coin.
patroclus
60 no’s on the Grassley pile of excrement. At least the Dems can stop bad things.
Gene is right – not only has every Civil Rights bill been a compromise with bigotry, it’s even more of the case with immigration bills. The 1924 Act was one long exercise of bigotry and even the 1965 Act had some not-so-laudable compromises. As did the 1986 Act. There’s always a two-steps forward, one-step back component to every single effort the U.S. has ever made on this issue.
TenguPhule
@Frankensteinbeck:
Individual tastes may vary, of course.
I’m more partial to the Dresdens of the world, myself.
Dorothy A. Winsor (formerly Iowa Old Lady)
@? ?? Goku (aka Baka Amerikahito) ? ?: To me, the most telling sign of a Mary Sue is that they suck all the cool out of other characters. It all belongs to them.
And OT, but I see Stormy Daniels is claiming she has a Monica Lewinsky dress.
Corner Stone
“But muh promise”
Steve in the ATL
@? ?? Goku (aka Baka Amerikahito) ? ?:
IOKIYAP
Corner Stone
@Dorothy A. Winsor (formerly Iowa Old Lady): Well I had planned on eating at some point today…..blech.
TenguPhule
@Corner Stone:
Collins just realized they came in her mouth.
efgoldman
@Dorothy A. Winsor (formerly Iowa Old Lady):
A similar style and color, or THE dress?
ETA: Or some dress actually worn by Lewinsky.
Dorothy A. Winsor (formerly Iowa Old Lady)
@efgoldman: The forensic evidence dress
schrodingers_cat
@gene108: Even Norwegians have a 14 year wait for the sibling visa.
schrodingers_cat
@WaterGirl: I has an excited. Can you describe the pups?
DougJ
@ASV:
Nope 11 points more Republican than 50 means 61. Read the wiki
efgoldman
@TenguPhule: Collins just realized they came in her mouth
Baud
@Dorothy A. Winsor (formerly Iowa Old Lady): Note to self: Insist on proof of dry cleaning next time lawyer agrees to say he paid for hush money.
Kraux Pas
@burnspbesq:
There’s a difference between security and a giant
white elephantwall at the border.Jumbo76
@gene108:
That’s great and all, but it’s also kind of the problem. Let’s say it’s 2021, Trump is out, and we have congressional majorities. What’s your plan then?
efgoldman
@DougJ:
What, are we arguing basic arithmetic in honor of McMegan’s hire at WAPO?
Chet Murthy
Doug, first, I really appreciate both your lovely titles, and your periodically bringing up elections and donation. I wrote checks to Conor Lamb & Beto O’Rourke today. It’s time to start that cycle, and I wonder about two (ok, 3) things that maybe someone on this list knows the answer to:
(1) I read that donating via credit card slices off the merchant fee and maybe more. Is there some way other than a physical check, to avoid that?
(2) repeatedly I’ve read that Jason Kander’s GOTV group is doing excellent work. I’d like to read a bit about that, before writing them a check — can anybody point to where I might?
(3) Are there other on-the-ground GOTV organizations to which I might donate? I know of the Texas Organizing Project, and the NAACP chapters, but that’s it.
Thanks in advance
Baud
@efgoldman: To be fair, they are arguing about what number the + is added to.
Frankensteinbeck
@? ?? Goku (aka Baka Amerikahito) ? ?:
Now I have to try and think of a property mainstream recognizable that has a ‘Mary Sue Bad’ issue. Okay, Twilight. If the protagonist ever did anything to deserve the attention she gets and the phrasing issues weren’t godawful bad, no one would care that the plot is ‘All the hot guys are fighting over me!’ There’s still little enough mainstream ‘hot predator guys want me’ material that women bought it by the millions.
DougJ
@Chet Murthy:
I will see what I can find out!
Corner Stone
@Dorothy A. Winsor (formerly Iowa Old Lady):
Not that I really want to know…but if he paid to have sex with her did they even make it to the “naked” part?
Major Major Major Major
@Dorothy A. Winsor (formerly Iowa Old Lady): true.
@? ?? Goku (aka Baka Amerikahito) ? ?:
Well, then don’t do that, or at least lampshade it. Write, kiddo!
Kraux Pas
@marcopolo: In Massachusetts we haven’t been able to keep any snow on the ground all winter. If it snows it melts. It’s pretty much been raining all February.
efgoldman
@Jumbo76:
Depends entirely on who is the RWNJ minority leader and whether they plan to go full obstructionist again.
If it’s still McTurtle, I can see it being as bad as Obama’s second term
? ?? Goku (aka Baka Amerikahito) ? ?
@Frankensteinbeck:
That main problem Bella Swan had was she was just a self-insert of the author.
Have you ever read any of the interviews with the actor who played Edward? He rakes the series and Stephanie Meyer over the coals. And really? Edward and Bella relationship, the little I’ve seen of it, is creepy.
Dorothy A. Winsor (formerly Iowa Old Lady)
@Corner Stone: I am never, ever going to think about Trump naked. So stop it right now!
Corner Stone
@Frankensteinbeck:
Bella clearly has some special skills that draw Edward to her. I think Jacob’s lust for her is an artifact, plus she nakedly leads him the fuck on constantly.
Major Major Major Major
@? ?? Goku (aka Baka Amerikahito) ? ?: isn’t this generally thought to be where Mary Sues come from?
Barbara
@Chet Murthy: I usually leave a small tip that is enough to cover credit card fees. I hate writing checks. I have an on-line check writing software through my bank that I could probably use to deliver a check to a political campaign without any extra charge.
Mnemosyne
@? ?? Goku (aka Baka Amerikahito) ? ?:
IMO, people worry too much about Mary Sue characters because a lot of idiots use the phrase to refer to characters they don’t like that are not Mary Sues. Rey in the new Star Wars trilogy is not a Mary Sue, but online morons love to call her that because they hate that a woman is a protagonist.
Bella from the Twilight series is much more of a Mary Sue (or at least an empty vessel that readers can pour themselves into), but writing her that way was successful enough to have two best-selling series based on her (Twilight and Fifty Shades, which started as Twilight fanfic with sex put back in).
gene108
@Jumbo76:
My plan on what exactly? If it were up to me, there would be no restrictions on immigration anywhere in the world. If people wanted to move, they could move.
? ?? Goku (aka Baka Amerikahito) ? ?
@Major Major Major Major:
The idea is probably as old as fiction itself. And SI’s don’t have to be bad. They just have to be entertaining and likeable.
Mnemosyne
@? ?? Goku (aka Baka Amerikahito) ? ?:
Flaws that create a story problem. Don’t make your character the equivalent of going into a job interview and saying, My biggest flaw is that I’m just too hard-working.
Jumbo76
@patroclus:
Only if you go back so far, of course. The Chinese Exclusion acts were pretty much all the steps back. I think this is a compromise we have to stop making. They won’t have the majorities and the White House for ever. Let’s think about what we want when we have the majorities. What if we didn’t make that compromise? Isn’t that, at least, a better baseline to start from?
Let’s be clear too—immigration really isn’t connected in any way to the lives of people who live here now. Immigration doesn’t make the lives of American citizens worse. I’m not going to be able to express this idea fully at the moment, but if we take seriously the complaints from white working class voters that they’re not getting ahead, well, that isn’t connected to immigration. They’re not getting ahead because of other factors in the economy. The decision to exclude people from the country because of their origin really can’t help to solve the economic pressures that people are facing. That has to go on a second track. So, for me, the message down the road is more like we’re going to help everyone. The government is going to rebalance things, and if you’re struggling, you’re going to get help. Just don’t lay the blame for your struggle on immigrants, because they’re the same as you, with the same struggles and goals.
I don’t know man, I’m off track. I’m just sick of this stuff to a certain degree.
Mnemosyne
@Major Major Major Major:
Yes and no. I think a Mary Sue/Marty Stu is a bad author insert that sticks out and distracts from the story, but an author insert character is not automatically bad by definition.
If you’ve ever read the Dorothy L. Sayers Peter Wimsey detective novels, the character of Harriet Vane is a pretty obvious author self-insert. BUT Sayers made Vane such a flawed, funny, intelligent character that readers love Vane anyway.
Peale
@Mnemosyne: Unless you plan to tragically work them to death, or have them die in the office due to some mishap. :-)
Major Major Major Major
@Mnemosyne:
Completely agree, and yeah you see this exact thing a lot in fandoms.
@Mnemosyne: flaws don’t have to create a story problem and story problems don’t have to be caused by flaws though.
ETA #notallflaws
Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism
@? ?? Goku (aka Baka Amerikahito) ? ?: Mary Sue (and her cousin Gary Stu) is easy to avoid if you keep the defining attributes in mind.
Just ignore the idiots who will try to tell you that any competent female character is a Sue.
Major Major Major Major
@Mnemosyne: and of course Kilgore Trout was awesome.
@Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism: “ignore idiots” is great writing advice in general.
TenguPhule
@Mnemosyne:
But she does unfortunately share the Mary Sue problem of “I can do this without really trying hard or with minimal training. Just don’t think about how I’m able to do this and all will be well”.
The Directors have not done her any favors by giving her the easier road.
marcopolo
@Chet Murthy: I think googling Let America Vote is a fine way to see what they are up to but here are a couple articles:
What is currently happening:
And what they did in Virginia last year:
I am a big Kander fan. If he throws his hat in the ring in 2020 I will be there helping him out.
Jumbo76
@gene108:
I agree. I’m tired of this stuff. Here’s my dream immigration plan: You can show up at the border and come in. If you want to work, you register with the government and they give you a number. Employers have to file this number with the government when they employ you. You’re subject to the same payroll taxes as everyone else, as long as you’re working. You can’t pull unemployment, etc, until you have 5-10 years of work. Don’t have a number, you can’t work, but tour around as long as you like. Employers who use immigrant labor without registering them pay high fines. (This ensures they are paying appropriate wages). ICE is restricted to removing immigrants who pose a threat to national security. Localities can request the removal of aliens who are convicted of serious and violent crimes.
Will that ever happen? Of course not. But maybe we can start from a different position.
TenguPhule
@Mnemosyne:
Which just proves that millions of women loved bad writing if it allows them to fantasize about predator males satisfying them on their terms.
Mnemosyne
@Major Major Major Major:
They don’t have to, but I think it generally makes for a better story if character flaws tie into the plot, or at least into their relationships with other characters.
@Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism:
At the antiquarian book fair last weekend, I got a signed copy of Shards of Honor with a really gawdawful early 90s cover. But it’s signed by the author! ?
germy
Why Won’t the White House Explain Melania Trump’s Parents’ Immigration Status?
Fair Economist
@Mnemosyne: Mary Sue/Marty Stu generally makes for bad art, but not necessarily bad entertainment. People like to fantasize, and an MS character provides that for somebody with compatible fantasies. I’ve enjoyed some books with some MS-ish characters, although they get tiresome if stretched into series and they don’t stand up to rereading.
Weaselone
@Jumbo76:
Good news. Bigotry has refused to compromise with us. If Thief Justice Gorsach and enough of the Supremes hear and overturn the 4th District Court’s ruling, or Trump’s ICE just ignores it Right Wingers will get to fap to an endless stream of misery porn as the dreamers are deported.//
Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism
@? ?? Goku (aka Baka Amerikahito) ? ?: Most recent example I can come up with is the new character in the Avengers comic. (I’d have to look up her name.) We’ve spent a good part of two issues now with the other long-time members talking about what a wonderful person she is and how much they hate that she got accidentally erased from the timeline after helping to found the team. But now she’s back! And it’s awesome!
Mnemosyne
@TenguPhule:
Hulk Explains Why We Should Stop It With the Hero Journey Shit
TenguPhule
@Mnemosyne: It wasn’t convincing the last time you tried that shit either.
Last Jedi is just one of your blind spots.
Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism
@Mnemosyne: Eeeeeeeeeee! for the Shards of Honor find!
Major Major Major Major
@Mnemosyne:
…the latter of which is not, as generally defined, the plot. You shouldn’t try to shoehorn it in just because “you’re supposed to.”
Major Major Major Major
@Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism: “and when Poochie isn’t on-screen, all the other characters should be saying, “Where’s Poochie?””
Mnemosyne
@Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism:
I was pretty excited. The cover is truly awful, though — early Photoshop that’s trying to be at least somewhat photorealistic and … isn’t.
Also, did I tell you I finally read Gentleman Jole and loved it? All of the objections people had were dealt with in the very first chapter. Plus I feel like people have somehow forgotten the fact that Cordelia is Betan. She lived in that society until her mid-30s. Forming a triad with two men is not going to be foreign to her at all.
@Major Major Major Major:
It is in my genre. ?
Peale
@TenguPhule: How hard did Luke have to work? Three months of training and he’s off to fight his father who has been training for years.
rikyrah
@patroclus:
Nope, because they didn’t want it.
Mnemosyne
@TenguPhule:
It’s definitely somebody’s blind spot. Given the overall critical and fan reaction, as opposed to a small but vocal group of whiners, I’m pretty sure I know whose.
ETA: Don’t forget, some pathetic rando re-edited the film to remove all of the women and emotion, so you can fap to that to your heart’s content. ???????
Major Major Major Major
@Mnemosyne: touché, though even then I’d argue that since you’re only talking about interactions between a very small subset of the characters (and of course have other intervening events) my point is still valid.
Corner Stone
@Peale:
A fight he lost, IIRC.
SiubhanDuinne
@Mnemosyne:
Ha! Beat me to it! I was literally just about to mention the DLS/HV example.
TenguPhule
@Peale:
Which ends up with reality ensuing. He gets his ass kicked, his hand chopped off, a case of Heroic BSOD and he has to be rescued by his sister.
Rey practices by herself for a week, manages to take out half a room full of experienced anti-jedi bodyguards, beat a handi-capped luke skywalker and apparently mastered lifting up rocks. Just because the sad excuse of a plot demands it. Her record of defeats or real setbacks so far? Zero.
TenguPhule
@Mnemosyne:
And you would be wrong. And just digging yourself deeper.
Mnemosyne
@TenguPhule:
And, like Luke, Rey lived on a backwater farm where her only combat experience was shooting womp rats, right?
Did you even see The Force Awakens? Because most of this stuff you’re complaining about is shown in that film.
Mnemosyne
@SiubhanDuinne:
?
? ?? Goku (aka Baka Amerikahito) ? ?
@Mnemosyne:
That’s it exactly! “Flaws” that aren’t really flaws.
Major Major Major Major
@Mnemosyne: fwiw I wasn’t saying that all author inserts lead to Mary Sues, but the term came about due to a preponderance of bad author inserts in fan fiction, as ridiculed by the eponymous parody character.
? ?? Goku (aka Baka Amerikahito) ? ?
@TenguPhule:
Like a commenter above said, most people don’t care about hyper-competent heroes or villains so long as the story is entertaining.
Mnemosyne
@Major Major Major Major:
I think you were clear — a Mary Sue/Marty Stu is a bad author insert, but having an author insert is not necessarily bad.
I suspect that Ford Prefect is Douglas Adams’ author insert in THGTTG.
Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism
@Major Major Major Major: Although there are a lot of people in fandom who will argue that all author inserts can’t help but be Sues. IV would call it a lack of imagination on their parts.
TenguPhule
@Mnemosyne:
He had a speeder and it was established very early on in an important conversation that he’s educated enough to qualify for the Imperial Academy. And even then, he’s still working on his aiming right up until he starts letting the Force aid him, because he’s not experienced enough to rely on skill alone.
Did you remember anything about it when watching LJ?
Rey is supposedly WORSE OFF then Luke, but apparently she’s supposed to be better at everything then he was.
Some of it can be handwaved from FA, but LJ pissed on continuity “I grew up alone” suddenly changes to “I was sold into slavery by my parents”, She can apparently tap into the Dark Side of the Force without suffering any consequences for doing so. There is no growth here, there is no real risk to her beyond “the plot compells you”. Its the inevitablity of the whole thing that is so wrong.
TenguPhule
@? ?? Goku (aka Baka Amerikahito) ? ?:
But the story wasn’t entertaining.
? ?? Goku (aka Baka Amerikahito) ? ?
@Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism:
I think the temptation is there where authors just want wish-fulfilment at the expense of the story and forget they’re writing for an audience.
Major Major Major Major
@? ?? Goku (aka Baka Amerikahito) ? ?: Perhaps an author insert becomes a Mary Sue when the author isn’t being very honest with themself.
Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism
@? ?? Goku (aka Baka Amerikahito) ? ?: And that is the definition of a Mary Sue.
House Sparklypoo, if you’re familiar with Potterfen.
oldgold
From the article cited in the original post:
TenguPhule
@oldgold: I’m sure it will work out as well the retreat from President Obama in 2010.
satby
@Jumbo76: troll
Mnemosyne
@TenguPhule:
I remembered things like Rey being shown doing hand-to-hand combat on Jakku and saving Finn’s butt, plus we saw her flying around doing her scavenging. You know, all of the skills that you claim came out of nowhere in TLJ.
Yes, it’s almost like living by yourself and scavenging for a living is better preparation for combat than living on a farm. Who knew?
It’s almost like TFA included things like a scene of her screaming after being abandoned on Jakku as a child, and a whole subplot about her being reluctant to leave Jakku in case her parents returned.
You may want to bring a notebook to the theater with you the next time you see a film, because you don’t seem to retain plot points very well.
Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism
@Mnemosyne: Ah, Gentleman Jole. There was a sentence added between the ARC and the published text that made that clearer; most of the howls were from ARC readers.
Oh, and tolja. ;)
Mnemosyne
@Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism:
Now I’ll have to see if I can figure out what the inserted line was. ? For me, it was totally clear that Aral and Cordelia discussed forming a triad and they were looking at various candidates. There had been a few instances where Aral had chickened out and not pursued someone they had agreed on, so she was pleasantly surprised to come home from her conference and discover that the deed was done.
TenguPhule
@Mnemosyne:
Yes, hand to hand combat against other scavengers. While also armed with a staff. Now explain to me how this translates into her being better then a bunch of presumably specially trained forces supposedly designed to counter people like her? Please note she suffers precisely ONE injury of note during their fight and that impacts her after the battle in no way whatsoever. Beauty is never tarnished indeed.
FA: Big Lipped Alligator Moment: Mind control! And at a level even Obi wan Kenobi and Luke Skywalker weren’t able to pull off.
LJ: Again, beauty is never tarnished. Dark Side? Nothing matters anymore.
Its almost as if you missed the point of “Wait, if she was sold into slavery, 1)how did she get out of slavery 2)who helped her do (1) and 3)why weren’t there any hints or clues or anything before this to keep this from being an asspull by the director making it up as he goes along…oh wait, because HE DID.”
Citizen Alan
@Frankensteinbeck:
The classical Mary Sue character is unique to fanfiction, as I recall, and refers to original characters introduced to a fanfiction setting who casually and improbably resolve all of the main plot conflicts. Like a character introduced into Star Trek the Next generation who, by the end of the first chapter, has gotten Picard and Crusher to admit their love for each other, helped Worf recover his family stolen honor, taught data to have emotions, cured Geordi’s blindness, and defeated an alliance of all the enemy races in a single space battle.
WaterGirl
@schrodingers_cat: They are maybe 24 and 27 pounds each. One is mostly white and the other is white with brown spots. They are very sweet! And it’s a bit crazy with all the critters.
Frankensteinbeck
@Citizen Alan:
Exactly, and it’s not that they’re really great at something or an author insert, it’s that they blow the Hell out of the continuity and destroy the story.
J R in WV
@marcopolo:
It was 78 in WV today as I drove around town on weekly errands. I ran the A/C in the car, but our house is in a shady glen, so didn’t start A/C in the house… yet. A pleasant afternoon in a tee shirt, but very odd.
Smelled like the Gulf Coase to me… we are so fuqed by climate change!!!
Mnemosyne
@TenguPhule:
You mean other than the fact that she just came back from her training with Luke Skywalker, Master Jedi?
So three tries on a single guard before succeeding at mind control is “a level even Obi Wan wasn’t able to pull off”? We saw him do far better than that in a single throwaway moment in “Star Wars.”
Well, there was this whole “escape from Jakku on the Millennium Falcon” thing from TFA …
Finn and B.B.-8.
Other than everything on Jakku in TFA? What did you think the whole “turning scavenged materials in for food rations” thing was? Her part-time job while she went to community college?
The fact that you were misdirected and thought something else was going on is not the director’s “fault.” Again, you should have paid more attention and thought back to previous events.
KS in MA
Sent $$ to ActBlue for Lamb. Thanks, Doug!
Citizen Alan
@Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism:
I think that’s intentional. Trope that has come up in recent years is the evil Mary Sue, a character who was never a part of the story before but who has been retroactively inserted in to history as part of some evil scheme changing everyone’s memories in the process. Buffy had an episode in which minor league villain Johnathan cast of spell to essentially make himself a Marty Stu who was good at everything and who everyone believed was responsible for all the heroic things Buffy had done in the past including Buffy herself. There was also a Torchwood episode about an alien who could manipulate people’s memories and who used his powers to infiltrate the team. Several characters actually had changed personalities because of how their prior character development had been altered by the insertion of fake memories.
Mnemosyne
@Citizen Alan:
Fun fact: Danny Strong, who played Jonathan, is now an Emmy Award-winning TV writer.
Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism
@Citizen Alan: That’s what I’m hoping for. But as the story stands now, she’s a classic Sue, down to the other characters dithering about what to do and her having to reluctantly step in and lead them. Would be Sorted into Sparkleypoo if she went to the Potterverse
TenguPhule
@Mnemosyne:
What training? You mean the part she does into the Dark Side despite his express warning not to? Because that was pretty much it.
No, we didn’t. He & Luke both used the Force to persuade their targets, convinced them that what they were doing was what they wanted to do (just another traffic stop with nothing to see here & Jabba would be pleased, respectively). Only after Lucas did the prequels did Obi Wan pull off something similar in Ep II in what was one of those big lipped alligator moments on his morality.
She does a full out CONTROL of his mind despite it being contrary to his orders and his nature. Again, comes out of nowhere and Kenobi & Skywalker both were trained but still didn’t reach this level of domination.
She’s not a slave in TFA.
Perhaps you need to review the whole concept of slavery again, its almost as if you’ve forgotten what slaves are.
She’s scavenging for a living, she gets PAID for it. Nobody owns her in TFA.
The Director himself has already admitted that he was pulling this out of his ass because apparently the previous director didn’t leave any guiding instructions behind.
Mnemosyne
@TenguPhule:
Ever read Oliver Twist? Was the Artful Dodger a slave of Fagin’s? His parents sold him to Fagin as an “apprentice,” so does that make him a slave? Keep in mind that slavery was illegal in England, but punitive apprenticeships that were virtually indistinguishable until the person’s mid-20s were not.
The only person referring to Rey as a slave after her parents sold her is … you.
Mnemosyne
@TenguPhule:
Also, a reminder: American chattel slavery is not the only, or even the most common, form of slavery. Even in the new trilogy, Anakin’s mother is a slave in the first movie and has been freed to marry a farmer by the second one. Obviously, the “Star Wars” universe’s slavery is not the same as American chattel slavery.
TenguPhule
@Mnemosyne:
So you’re trying to suggest she was sold because….they need more people to scavenge stuff from the desert? I’m not sure you’ve thought this through. If she was sold, what was her value? What did the buyer get in return? In fact, who bought her?
Peale
It’s possible that the entire Star Wars universe isn’t that good to begin with. Anyway, the Mary Sue character in the series is actually Rose, not Rey. Her biggest flaw seems to be that she was overshadowed by her sister and under appreciated although she already possessed the ability to be a hero who and takes over the story. Rey has the blah blah “born with it” characteristics of a “chosen one,” which is something else.
Mnemosyne
@TenguPhule:
Since it seems to be a fairly lucrative business … yep.
To be trained as a scavenger, just like the Dodger was trained as a pickpocket.
Scavenged materials. You know, the stuff we see her doing and then exchanging for food rations.
The guy who runs the exchange post seems like a pretty likely bet. Buy throwaway kids, train them to scavenge for you, and short them on their rations as often as you can. Meanwhile, you sell the scrap for a profit. Perhaps you need to read up on Victorian England to see how this kind of “apprenticeship” worked.
Rhubarb
TenguPhule: It would be easier to take you seriously if you learned the difference between “then” and “than.”
Mnemosyne
@Peale:
Since Poe was the Mary Sue in TFA, then Rose is probably the Mary Sue in TLJ. I think she has more character development than you’re giving her credit for, though. She’s kind of like Violet in The Incredibles.
Mnemosyne
@TenguPhule:
Or, in short, Rey is a mudlark. Did you really not know that these kind of jobs existed?
No One You Know
@Jumbo76: Mm. While I see your point, I wouldn’t be willing to trade actual progress for pure motives when lives are at stake.
Can’t speak for anyone else, but I am very aware of the politics of practicality. Just because they can’t do all we want in one lap doesn’t prove we shouldn’t build a block at a time.