Sometimes it is the smallest things that bring down corrupt regimes. Little things like third rate burglaries, etc. Is it possible that the Chinese secrecy and deception regarding SARS could be the foundation of an internal uprising, particularly when people in China start dying in the numbers that I unfortunately think they will? Could this be the end of communism in China?
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Change on the Way?
John Cole wonders if the Chinese government’s mishandling of the SARS epidemic might not lead to something big.Sometimes it is the smallest things that bring down corrupt regimes. Little things like third rate burglaries, etc. Is it possible that the…
MommaBear
Following the information (via the Gweilo Diaries) of not only the underreporting of the SARS deaths but the underreporting of AIDS infections rates, plus the confluence of pulmonary disease on AIDS victims, the Chinese may well suffer one of the worst death rates seen in many years. What this will do to their economy as well as their government is to worry about.
Neal
Just off the cuff, I’d say it’s doubtful. Stalinism killed millions of people through various means, and there was no “uprising” until much later, but for different reasons.
How many Chinese died as a result of the Great Leap Forward? Millions? What happened to communism then? Not much, and these were examples of the government policies directly resulting in the deaths of millions of citizens.
I’m not sure what ballpark death toll range you’re thinking of, but I think, unfortunately, it would have to be a lot.
Interesting premise, though.
Daniel
Probably not. Neal’s comment gives an accurate historical perspective as to why.
What it might do is cause enough domestic ire to force the Chinese government to operate in a more transparent environment. This in turn could lead to secondary reforms in the long term, but I can’t honestly see the Chinese government imploding on account of this. Their hold on the country is still too strong.
Moves towards transparency could also come about if the international death toll continues to climb or accelerate. I could see the Bush administration using SARS mishandling as a platform for calling for Chinese government reform or transparency. Sadly, despite the disease having hit Canada first, I can’t see Chretien actively condemming a marxist country.
Jim Henley
John: Yeah, it just might. Taking Neal’s point about the Great Leap Forward and all that, which is all true, it’s nevertheless not the 1950s and 60s any more. It’s a more open society and a less confident elite. I’d say there’s at least a chance, as you say, that SARS becomes the PRC’s Chernobyl, the impact of which on the Late Soviet regime was apparently huge.
Neal
Jim has a good point and one that I was going to caveat my argument with until I got distracted by something shiny. Even up against the Chinese government’s best efforts otherwise, the people have access to much more information than they did forty years ago and the task of the communist machine keeping the people in a blackhole will be much tougher.
90210
Unlikely. I think it’ll just be one more step in the incremental process that basically began with Deng Xiaoping.
david
Tonite they showed a few disgruntled citizens of hong kong talking about their dissatisfaction with their govt. With masks on. I look forward to seeing a growing revolt in China. People emboldened to speak out. The masks helping them feel more secure about doing it.
Tom
Both because of the increased access to information, and one very basic difference between SARS and the Great Leap Sideways, I think this might actually have an effect. That difference? The Great Leap was terrorism, this is mismanagement. The fear ain’t there this time, folks.
Tom