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You are here: Home / Politics / Domestic Politics / Prediction

Prediction

by John Cole|  May 23, 20037:47 am| 7 Comments

This post is in: Domestic Politics

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After watching the Democrat candidates for a couple of months, I have decided that Gephardt or Dean are the ones who stand the best chance of winning the nomination. Balloon Juice readers will note that this is a complete reversal for me regarding Gephardt, who months ago I said was completely unelectable. I still think he is unelectable, but he looks better than the rest of the Democrats out there, and he seems to have the Unions wrapped up, as well as securing the endorsements of everyone who matters in Congress.

Dean seems to have a shot because he is strident and angry, and he appeals to the fringe elements of the Democrat party who are just bitter and angry. That counts, for now.

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Previous Post: « Good For Him… And You
Next Post: The Long and Winding Road, Pt. 2 »

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7Comments

  1. 1.

    the talking dog

    May 23, 2003 at 11:59 am

    John Edwards.

  2. 2.

    John Yuda

    May 23, 2003 at 12:53 pm

    The thing with Dean is he’s really not that liberal, or a fringe candidate.

    The media is painting him that way somewhat, but it’s mostly the DLC and the likes of Kerry and Lieberman who are afraid of him that are trying to portray him as some sort of raving left-winger. Kucinich is the raving left-winger, although he does keep his raving pretty low-key.

  3. 3.

    90210

    May 23, 2003 at 4:27 pm

    Dean was chairman of the Democratic Governors’ Association. That’s hardly a position for fringe lefties.

  4. 4.

    John Cole

    May 23, 2003 at 4:35 pm

    I said his anger appeals to the fringe…

  5. 5.

    Dave

    May 25, 2003 at 6:37 pm

    I think Leiberman/Graham or Leiberman/Kerry would be the toughest ticket for W to beat, closely followed by Kerry/Leiberman or Kerry/Graham.

    I think Leiberman will be unable to get the support from the Dem base, though.

    I don’t think Graham’s going to make the Presidential slot. Like most have said, he’s a Veep type.

    Kerry… without the proper running mate, he’d do halfway decent but never really be a threat. He’s pushed his Vietnam service too many times, people are getting annoyed by it now. He’ll need the right running mate to make Bush sweat.

    Dean’s biggest problem is his very loud ambivalence over Iraq – ‘I suppose that’s a good thing’, etc. At this point, it’ll be hard to overcome before the primaries start.

    The rest are, of course, so fringy that they’re likely to bring Bush a 50-state sweep.

  6. 6.

    Dave

    May 25, 2003 at 6:38 pm

    I think Leiberman/Graham or Leiberman/Kerry would be the toughest ticket for W to beat, closely followed by Kerry/Leiberman or Kerry/Graham.

    I think Leiberman will be unable to get the support from the Dem base, though.

    I don’t think Graham’s going to make the Presidential slot. Like most have said, he’s a Veep type.

    Kerry… without the proper running mate, he’d do halfway decent but never really be a threat. He’s pushed his Vietnam service too many times, people are getting annoyed by it now. He’ll need the right running mate to make Bush sweat.

    Dean’s biggest problem is his very loud ambivalence over Iraq – ‘I suppose that’s a good thing’, etc. At this point, it’ll be hard to overcome before the primaries start.

    The rest are, of course, so fringy that they’re likely to bring Bush a 50-state sweep.

  7. 7.

    Dave

    May 25, 2003 at 6:40 pm

    Oh, and for Edwards…

    Trial Lawyer.

    ’nuff said.

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