In the short term, I expect an uptick in bold and poorly planned attacks on American troops withe results like this:
American soldiers killed 11 attackers who ambushed their patrol using a flock of pigeons as a signal of the force’s approach, an American military statement said today, in an incident that appeared to be a further sign that the insurgency has not slowed after the capture of Saddam Hussein.
The military also said in other statements issued today that unrest continued in Ramadi and Falluja, two towns known for their support of the former Iraqi leader, and that American troops shot and killed at least two gunmen.
These “dead-enders” have nothing left, and this should taper down in a month or so, if not before. These are not rational actors with a long-term strategy. These are Ba’athists and other Saddam loyalists lashing out in anger and, more importantly, embarassment from the way their cowardly leader surrendered.
What will probably continue to be a problem are the suicide bombings and other acts of terrorism conducted by the usual coalition of whackos and jihadis from abroad. At least that is my prediction- and it is starting to appear that the Iraqi population has little patience for these wing-nuts.
Andrew Lazarus
1. The alleged dead-enders are not stuck with nothing left. They’re jockeying for a stronger position in the mess that will be post-Occupation Iraq, or for leadership among the resistance if the Occupation alienates a larger portion of the Iraqi people.
2. The Israeli experience was that over time the guerrilla (or terrorists, as you will) improved their kill ratio. At the beginning of the current intifada, there was a firefight outside Bethlehem with results similar to the one here, and the Israeli senior officer at the scene was quoted as saying something like, “They shoot off guns so much; don’t they ever take target practice?” These people may be very evil, but they aren’t too stupid to learn from their mistakes.
Sean
What will probably continue to be a problem are the suicide bombings and other acts of terrorism conducted by the usual coalition of whackos and jihadis from abroad.
-You mean the people who actually attacked us? in other words, the important problem. Too bad we’re wasting too much time capturing tin pot secular dictators (and allying ourselves with other ones) to focus on this iraq adventure instead of finishing off the real danger.
Ken Hahn
I seriously doubt the dead enders are looking for any position in post occupation Iraq. They are either looking to go out with a bang or to escape. The former will cause a brief uptick in terrorism, the latter will leave or face their fate when our troops no longer protect them from lynch mobs. The Palestinian terrorists have powerful and wealthy sponsers. The Iraqi fanatics have far worse logistic problems. When they use up their resources, supplies are not going to be easy to obtain. Iranian, Syrian, Egyptian and Saudi suppliers are willing to bear the consequences of Israeli anger. they are less willing to face the US. While the Israelis have the capability to defeat each and all of those countries, the US has the power to destroy them.
The terrorists are not usually subject to reason, but fear they understand.
Sweet Lou
Wait, Sean…people attacking us? an “important problem”? Back in the Dennis Miller thread, you were telling me that was nothing but my white male inferiority complex…
Could you get your story straight? My shrink is charging me a fortune, and I want to make sure he is treating the right thing.