Someone please try to make some sense out of this bloody mess of a post:
I admit to having little to add on Ronald Reagan. I’ve had a magnificently cynical fear that his death would come in an election year and lead to conservative resurgence — or at least unification — fueled by his spectral presence. That may be happening, showing that cynicism isn’t always misplaced.
As for the man himself, I was born in 1984, so the Reagan revolution didn’t impinge on my consciousness all that much. Josh Green has a terrific article on how unconservative Reagan was, but I’m really in no place to evaluate the tussle over his legacy. What I will say is that focusing on his approval ratings to debunk the myth of his popularity misses the point — America decided retroactively that he was popular, probably for reasons connected to the era of good and evil more than anything else. To attempt to diminish a myth at the exact moment that man becomes martyr isn’t very smart politically and misses a truth of human nature. People like legends and, when they attempt to create them, rarely look fondly upon those who stand in the way. They’re not even supposed to be based on past’s truth (MLK Jr. was quite the womanizer), they’re made for the future.
People decided they liked Reagan after the fact?
1980 General Election:
Reagan- 43,901,812 votes, or 50.9% of the vote, equalling 489 electoral college votes.
Carter- 35,483,820 votes, or 41.1% of the vote, equalling 49 electoral college votes.
1984 General Election
Reagan- 54,455,000 votes, or 58.8%, equalling 525 electoral college votes.
Mondale- 37,577,000 votes, or 40.5%, equalling 13 electoral college votes.
Seems like they liked him from the beginning, and as his vote count increased in his second election, perhaps they liked hime even more. By comparison, the most people to ever vote for Clinton were 47 million. Is Ezra arguing Clinton was unpopular, or that Clinton’s popularity was a myth?
Here, btw, is a graph of the Gallup approval ratings of the past seven Presidents, here is a head to head match up between Clinton and Reagan, which is frighteningly similar with Clinton pulling out ahead.
Tomorrow, as a continued public service, Ezra will take on the myth of gravity and then explain to us that Cheers, Seinfeld, and MASH really weren’t that popular.
Ezra
Welcome to John’s world, where 58% is overwhelmingly popular (less than half the people don’t like me!) and ending approval ratings of 55% are utterly spectacular. Further, imaginary people make imaginary arguments about how popular Clinton was (no one’s trying to deify him, are they?) and these figments of the imagination somehow enter the argument.
The simple truth is that Reagan wasn’t unbelievably popular come the end of his term. Esteem for him ratcheted upwards as the years went by, nostalgia for the indomitable optimist. Barely over 50% isn’t bad, but it’s not extraordinary and it certainly wouldn’t command this sort of glorification if it was the end of the story. But it wasn’t, so my argument, simply stated, is that those trying to prove that reagan wasn’t supremely popular are barking up a useless tree. he is now and that’s what matters.
Come on John, this really isn’t so hard.
John Cole
Keep re-writing history as fast as you want, Ezra,
Reagan’s popularity was in the high 50’s to early 60’s his entire presidency, except during the 82 recession and the Iran Contra.
He was popular then, he is popular now. Unless you have other ways of explaining the polling data I have provided you, and the election results. Clearly two of the largest landslides should count for something…
Furthermore, it should be noted that while Reagan’s Job Approval rating (which we have been talking about here) went up and down, his PERSONAL approval rating was always very high. Clinton, on the other hand, enjoyed consistent job approval ratings while holding mediocre PERsonal approval ratings.
Reagan was and always has been popular with the American public, despite your utter inability to understand that and your desire to deny the undeniable.
Jay
What the hell are the Clintonistas so afraid of?
Dean
I think it would be interesting to see, years after a President has left office, or maybe even passed on, how many people THINK they voted for him, and how many actually did.
It’d be an interesting metric on how popular said President is.
Frex, I’ll bet that, when Harry Truman died, more people claimed to have voted for him in ’48 than actually did. (Remember him holding up the newspaper?)
Conversely, despite the massive landslides, I’ll bet that fewer people claimed to have voted for EITHER LBJ-’64 or Nixon-’72.
Now, looking back on Reagan, I’ll bet that more people “voted” for him in both ’80 and ’84 than actually occurred.
And THAT, I suspect, is what the Clintonistas fear—that, at the end of the day, most people won’t say they voted FOR him, or even voted AGAINST him, but won’t even remember WHO they voted for. (Sorta like asking folks whether they voted for Stevenson or Ike in ’56, or Harding vs. Al Smith in ’20.)
Josh P.
A fear that his death will come in an election year and lead to a conservative “unification”? I wonder how many popular Democrats would have to die to bring “unification” to the flip-flopping, “anyone but Bush” party.
Ezra
As is so often the case, your brand new argument doesn’t have anything to do with my argument. If you’d be so kind to look back at what you quoted, and what you should have read, you’ll notice that I specified “approval” ratings”. In addition, I also clearly aimed my post at those on the left trying to debunk his popularity through his approval ratings. Now you’re talking about personal popularity (using a broken link, btw), which is something different.
As for how popular he was at the time, you prove my argument. His approval ratings tracked Clinton’s quite closely — I don’t care what his personal popularity was at (notice Bush’s has been high too), were he considered as towering a figure then as he is now they would have been significantly higher than Clinton’s. While I agree they were quite good, they certainly weren’t amazing, and Reagan’s outsized legacy speaks to the powerful effect of nostalgia.
All this aside, I’m not quite sure what bit of my argument you’ve taken offense at. That America has decided he was overwhelmingly popular, rather than simply popular, is pretty clear, that reasonably well-liked Presidents become more beloved with time (hiya Truman) is common knowledge, and that death elevates the respected into the revered is human nature. That I’m arguing against liberals who want to downplay Reagan’s legacy by focusing on approval polls from 20 years ago when his legend is very current and constantly fought over (CBS miniseries comes to mind) should put us on the same side of the argument.
So not to be dense but do you have a point or are you just being contrary?
Yan
Sorry to be a smart ass, but Smith ran against Hoover in ’28.
The point in the original post certainly stands.
IXLNXS
Reagan was likable. Had a nice smile. People recognized him as one of their own.
George Bush Sr was the man behind the curtain during Reagan’s day. I laugh off all claims of what great things he did, and what scoundrel like things he did.
An ex CIA director makes for a powerful whisperer in the Emerald Palace
Booker
The legacy of the total fall and disgrace of communism can never be undone by any number of historical revisionists.
Reagan was a great president, the master of his administration. With a bit of assistance from Margaret Thatcher and Mikhail Gorbachev, he changed history for the better, forever.
This is what pinheads such as you refer to hate so much.
dhermesc
Ever want to see revisionist history? Compare the Kennedy “Myth” to the Kennedy presidency – hard to recognize they are one and the same. One would think “Camelot” would refer to a time of peace, not the Bay of Pigs, Vietnam War, Cuban Missile Crisis and civil unrest in the streets. The only action that save him from going down in history with a legacy worse then Carter’s or Nixon’s was taken by Oswald.
As for 50%+ approval ratings – Both Herr Klinton and Jimmy Carter would have killed significant portions of the population to achieve those numbers.
Ezra
Umm, Clinton had a higher average approval rating than Reagan. Both were in the 50’s with Clinton about 2% higher. Sorry.
Flugelhorn
Ezra,
What exactly is your argument here? Reagan had the highest approval rating of any president since FDR when he left office. Removing those president who never actually “left offce” such as FDR who died while in office, Reagan had the higest approval rating of ANY president at the end of his term.
Again… what is your argument again?
Kimmitt
The statement makes it appear that Reagan’s approval rating was higher than Clinton’s when he left office. It’s garden-variety misdirection, pretty much standard practice these days. It’s worthy of a rebuttal and some grouching, but the fact of the matter is that both sides do it.
Andrew | BYTE BACK
Go ask Ezra on his own site – damn.
What an obsession.
(Yes, I realize I’m 10 days too late.)