Once more, we must revisit Jane’s Law:
Jane’s Law: The devotees of the party in power are smug and arrogant. The devotees of the party out of power are insane.
A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll shows that disapproval of Congress’s performance is higher than it has been since 1994, the year voters swept Democrats out of power on Capitol Hill. Americans have grown gloomier about the nation’s direction, the economy and Iraq, and by 65%-17% they say Congress doesn’t share their priorities.
“If you’re a member of Congress … you’d better be looking over your shoulder,” says Democratic pollster Peter Hart, who helps conduct the Journal/NBC survey. His Republican counterpart, Bill McInturff, adds that a particular concern for incumbents looking to 2006 is unhappiness among senior citizens, a group that disproportionately turns out to vote in midterm elections.
While the survey contains warning signs for members of both parties, it is especially problematic for Republicans as the party in power at both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue. The poll of 1,005 adults, conducted May 12-16, shows that the greatest erosion in congressional approval has occurred among self-described Republicans. The poll’s margin of error is 3.1 percentage points.
Just 42% of Americans say their representative deserves to be re-elected, while a 45% plurality calls it time for someone new. When Americans are asked which party they want to control Congress after the 2006 elections, Democrats hold a 47%-40% edge — the party’s best showing since the Journal/NBC survey began asking that question in 1994.
Again, Democrats should not take this as a sign that things are turning their way, because the poll shows disgust at them as well. But, as a life-long Republican, I have never been as disgusted with my party as I am right now, and I would have a hard time voting for the national Republican party right now.
The whole poll can be found here in .pdf format.
*** Update ***
Fiscal conservatives in action.
fuzzywzhe
You’re disgusted with your Representatives?
Is it because you finally have realized that the war in Iraq has nothing to do with weapons of mass destruction or Democracy and that the executive branch lied to the American populace and treated them like fools?
Is it because Osama binLaden, the biggest murdered in US history, is still free?
Is it something else?
Halffasthero
Both parties are taking a hit for their quasi(pseudo?)-reality based governing. The Republicans are just the ones in charge.
KC
Halffasthero, both parties are taking a hit. However, the Republicans don’t just happen to be heading a government that’ll steer itself, they are pushing an agenda and enacting policies that will determine the near future course of our country. The public sees what Republicans are doing and apparently does not like it. If this trend continues, Republican leadership in Congress could be in trouble. On the other hand, the Dems are obviously not loved. However, they just have push a slightly better agenda and adopt a more moderate tone and they could be on the rise. Either way, as of now, the public is clearly uncomfortable with the way things are going and since the Republicans control the government and are directing its course they are seen as part problem.
Nikki
The majority party controls both branches of Congress, the White House and the Supreme Court and is virtually unencumbered to push its own agenda. The minority party has yet to present an agenda. Yes, the Dems are taking some heat, but it’s not going to be nearly as rough as what the Repubs will face in 2006. The people are aware of who is in charge and making all of the decisions.
Jay
These polls about the public’s opinion of Congress are completely useless.
If they were to poll individuals about their OWN representatives, you’d get much different results.
TJ Jackson
Why should the public be dissatisfied with a Congress that can’t:
-enforce our immigration laws
-idea of social security reform seems to be to increase taxes and raise retirement to 70 while means testing the Ponzi scheme.
-Spend like drunken sailors while acting if they were the guardians of the public’s purse
-Accuse members of the Congress of abusive actions while neglecting to mention their own party is far worse in this realm
-Examine and disclose confidential FBI reports to smear opponents without apparent retailiation.
-Allow people to stuff secret documents down their pants and punish them by forcing them to read Newsweek.
-Declare that you can’t be a member of the judiciary if you are a member of a religious group.
-Declare the need for a draft.
Yeah I’d say a bunch of politicos are in trouble. Let’s see how they voted.
matt
The Repubs are losing support because they have lost their principles. People now see that they don’t stand for anything anymore, except tax cuts and staying in power. When they rammed through the Medicare Prescription law they doomed themselves by not staying true to themselves.
Stormy70
The Republican base is restless right now, and alot of it has to do with illegal immigration and the confirmation battles over judges. The base thinks their Senators are pansies, and want action on these two issues.
Some Republicans should be punished for the out of control spending that has happened under their watch. I think Rick Santorum will have the toughest reelection fight in 2006. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out in the midterms.
Jamie
Seems to me there’s some context missing from this poll report: what were the numbers partway through Clinton’s second term? Partway through Reagan’s second? During the Nixon years? How about the Carter regime?
I get that the point of Jane’s Law purports to apply to ANY majority party, but this poll appears to me to be trying to make a point about THIS Congress, and without knowing how the American people polled in analogous situations in other years, the point can’t be made.
moreydee
Fuzzywzhe-you’re right…….this all that that they found in Iraq- -Systematic rape of women, including ‘rape rooms’ set up for the use of Saddam’s cronies, including his sons
-Civilians being shredded, feet-first, in industrial shredders
-At least 1.5 million people killed by death squads
-The massacre of 5,000 Kurds with nerve gas
-Saddam offered to pay $25,000 to the families of Palestinian suicide bombers
-The raping and pillaging of Kuwait during Gulf War I
DarkMech
The GOP has got to get back to basics. Fiscal conservatism, smaller government and strong foreign policy. The actions in Iraq were inevitable, whether a GOP or DEM was in power, the necessity would be the same.
If the DEMs can capitalize on the fact that most Americans don’t want this intrusive level of government (thiers of the GOPs) they can make some gains. I don’t think immigration is really that viable an issue.
Inspector Callahan
The public sees what Republicans are doing and apparently does not like it.
And what agenda is that? Because it certainly isn’t a conservative agenda. Hell, the repubs are giving Americans the type of government they would have gotten from democrats.
And regarding this whole “public seems to agree” BS, all it will take is one major initiative, or one thing to happen, and the fickle, uneducated American public will forget what they felt yesterday.
Pardon me if I take these BS polls with a grain of salt – we all can cherry-pick the polls that reinforce our pissed-at-the-republican views.
TV (Harry)
Laddy
I’m sure the self-described Republicans are pissed off at the Republican Congressmen. I know I am. Why? Because they are spineless. Furthermore, President Bush apparently doesn’t know he can veto legislation. But will I vote for a Democrat? Uh, no.
M. Simon
The Republicans need to stop the flow of illegal immigrants the same way they stopped the flow of illegal drugs. More laws and more police.
FxConde
When the Republicans started winning I predicted that in time they would turn into Democrats and eventually the Democrats would become conservatives. It happened a lot faster on the Republican side than I thought and the Democrats have turned into Socialists instead. I still support the war but domestic spending (read vote buying) is out of control. Higher spending does not justify higher taxes, it just becomes a circle of destruction and when the economy shuts down then revenue goes to hell. Libertarians need look at the bigger picture instead getting rid of the post office etc.
Kimmitt
and the Democrats have turned into Socialists instead.
Point to me a single word on any Democratic Party platform or speech anywhere in the past ten years where a Party official above the level of Precinct Committeeman has advocated state seizure of the means of production.
Words mean things.
Ken C
if Bush doesn’t shut down our immigration soon I would vote to remove him from office. any pro immigration congressmen might as well resign now.
Knemon
Kimmitt – what about their burning desire to complete the nationalization of health care? It’s not exactly the means of production (isn’t that more of a “communist” thing?), but it ain’t laissez-faire, that’s for sure.
Xiaoding
Voting is for chumps, and more than a little gay. Remember, if you vote, then you have no right to complain. The American people are asleep at the switch. Unfortunetly, we got the government we deserve. Neither party has any princicples. Only the elimination of both parties will solve these problems.
DavidN
Congress is a useless group of self absorbed people who do as their party directs and does not reflect the wishes of the area they represent! It’s shameful.
Why can’t they all just get along and work together to solve some of the huge problems we have?
I cannot believe this is what our forefathers envisioned.
Mike
Congress–both houses–needs to get its priorities straight. We have major problems eith the economy, the budget, transportation–and everything comes to a screeching halt over judicial nominations. Frist needs to get a life–and he and his collegues need to get their priorities straight. A genuine effort at dealing with the deficit would be a good place to start.So far, nobody will confront the issue head on. Pitiful.
Kimmitt
Kimmitt – what about their burning desire to complete the nationalization of health care?
I guess my response to this is to ask if you are also against public ownership of sewer lines, roads, electricity grids, etc. Everyone thinks that there should be public/private partnerships in certain industries where economies of scale, asymmetric information, or network externalities are dominant. The question seems to lie in whether or not medicine fits into one of these categories. While socialists are part of the debate, neither the pro nor the con mainstream on health care are socialists. At least I don’t think my mom’s a socialist.
It is worthy of note that the hallmark Democratic initiative — single payer — relies on the existence of private hospitals, doctors, pharmaceutical companies, and other health care providers, seeking to nationalize only the insurance aspect. Saying the government would probably do a better job on the paper shuffling and risk management still isn’t anything like saying the government ought to be running factories and banks.
W.B. Reeves
Kimmitt,
Trenchant. But don’t expect it to cut much ice with ideologues. Folks who equate Socialism with any state or collective enterprise aren’t likely to appreciate the distinctions you raise.
We are in an era where faith-based (ie, wishful) thinking dominates U.S. politics. Our legendary pragmatism seems to have evaporated. Analysis, rather than being seen as a way determining facts and countering prejudice, is valued solely to the degree it can be jiggered to validate pre-conceived biases.
Those who see Laissez faire as holy writ and collective enterprise as a diabolic evil have no qualms about sending public roads, sewage, trash collection, etc. to the stake. Its all about ushering in their version of the “good” society. In this case, one where the meek definitely do not inherit the earth. The’re not likely to let minor details, such as rhetorical or intellectual coherence, get in their way.
It’s a species of utopianism, or perhaps dystopianism. Point this out and you’ll be treated either to a temper tantrum or blank incomprehension. A lot of strange things are marching under the banner of conservatism these days.