For the first time since January, the Army met its recruiting goal this month, but it still faces what some senior Army officials say is a nearly insurmountable hurdle to meet the service’s annual quota.
Gen. Richard B. Myers, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told a public forum at the Pentagon on Wednesday that the Army exceeded its June goal, but he gave no details. Senior Army officials said in interviews earlier in the day that the Army exceeded the quota of 5,650 recruits by about 500 people. The Army Reserve also made its first monthly goal since last December, the officials said.
That still leaves the active-duty Army about 7,800 recruits behind schedule to send 80,000 enlistees to boot camp with only three months to go in the recruiting year that ends on Sept. 30. The Army has not missed its annual enlistment quota since 1999, when a strong economy made recruiters’ lives miserable.
Army officials publicly insist that they can still reach their annual goal, especially with hundreds of new recruiters on the street for the peak summer recruiting month, armed with big enlistment bonuses and greater leeway to recruit more high-school dropouts and lower-achieving applicants.
But privately, senior Army officials voiced skepticism on Wednesday that the Army could make up the deficit.
“If you ask people point-blank, we just don’t have enough time left to make it,” said an Army official who has been briefed on the June figures, but who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the Pentagon does not plan to release them publicly until early July.
They barely made their recruiting goals, and this is after adjusting the goals downward to reflect ‘changing market conditions.’
Two predictions:
1.) There is time to make up the deficit, and they will barely find a way to do it this summer. Maybe. That doesn’t make future recruiting scenarios any rosier, just that I know how resourceful these Army types are in a pinch.
2.) Hugh Hewitt is going to go absolutely ape-shit when he sees an anonymous Army source being quote in the NY Times saying they won’t be able to do it. Because everyone knows, you can’t trust anonymous sources. Plus- they are harder to punish when they stray from Hugh’s worldview. This article needed some balance- why, Hugh has five or six generals who will go on record saying the Army will meet its recruiting goal.
Also, if you are interested, the Washington Post has a long piece on how the Bush administration bringing in the academics to explain how to keep morale up on the homefront. Not a bad idea, at all.
Mr.Ortiz
Anyone else wondering why June, that time of the year when fresh-faced high school graduates start panicking about the rest of their lives, has the LOWEST recruiting goals of the year (other than december, when it’s apparantly too cold to recruit)? It’s easy to hit your target when you’re allowed to redefine it every time you miss.
John Cole
Ortiz- I keep forgetting that I needto restate things- I wrote about how they have redefined their standards several weeks ago. I will edit the post and make sure that is reflected.
Marcus Wellby
It’s easy to hit your target when you’re allowed to redefine it every time you miss.
Would you expect any less from our “first CEO president”?
I hope those “egghead academics” that the GOP likes to bash every election really put their all into the task at hand. As long theys ain’t those e-leetist, latte drinking types.
I think firing Rummy and replacing his sorry ass with someone qualified would help public, and military, morale more than the focus-grouped drivel they will march out next.
Tim F
Draft is inevitable.
docG
The link to keeping up morale on the homefront was very interesting. May I share a letter to the White House written to help shore up support?
Dear Mr. President:
You have said certain conditions must be met before withdrawing U.S. troops from Iraq. I, like many others, would like to know the criteria you will use for deciding when troops should leave. Given the lack of specificity and clarity so far on these points, I have created a template for you to complete so you as Commander in Chief can make unambiguous and final decisions. Once completed, the roadmap will be clear to all, and support at home for the war will increase, per your recent discussions on ways of increasing support.
Please complete the following statements. We will leave Iraq when . . . .
1. The total number of insurgency attacks per week declines to (insert maximum acceptable number here).
2. The total number of trained Iraqi military and police reaches (insert minimum acceptable number here).
3. The total number of foreign terrorists entering Iraq each month is (insert maximum acceptable number here).
4. The average number of political assassinations monthly in Iraq reaches (insert maximum acceptable number here).
5. The required amount of monthly Iraqi oil production per month (insert minimal acceptable number here).
6. The required amount of monthly Iraqi oil exports per month (insert minimal acceptable number here).
Well, sir, I think this covers the major points alluded to by you and members of your administration. If any major points have been omitted, please feel free to use this template concept to clarify them as well.
Best wishes and hope to hear from you soon.
James Emerson
Mr. Ortiz nails it…
June is when the high schools graduate a fresh batch of cannon fodder. We’ll have to wait and see if meeting the recruitment goals represents a new trend in patriotic fervor amongst our recently graduated aimless youth…or whther the recruiters have managed to find the “rock bottom” fulfillabe goal they can live with while simultaneously deflecting criticism of the administration’s foreign policies generated by a failed and unpopular war…
Lee
I find it an interesting juxtaposition of this post and attempting to discount the Chickenhawk meme. I would think they are directly related.
p.lukasiak
It sucks that the Army can’t meet its real recruitment needs.
Its outrageous that it artificially reduces its goals and then goes into PR over-drive when it manages to exceed those artificial goals.
Its this kind of crap that makes people lose faith in the military’s own leadership. Its bad enough that we can’t trust Bush and Rummy, but when the Brass are pulling this kind of shit to justify Bush regime policies, its really time to pull the plug on the Iraq war before further damage is done.
Kimmitt
I really don’t think that hiring a guy who studies PR to do some wartime propaganda is precisely “bringing in the academics,” but ok.
Jon H
“I wrote about how they have redefined their standards several weeks ago.”
The thing is, the June target was far lower than the ADJUSTED May target of 6700, when you’d think they would have adjusted the June target to be above the adjusted May target, because June is a better month for recruiting.
p.lukasiak
For a President who supposedly doesn’t pay any attention to the polls, its pretty amazing that he’s able to give speeches designed to butress public opinion for his war policies just when the polls are going south, and feels the need to hire PR experts to design the PR message that can best sell the war like a box of cornflakes to the American people.
Tim F
I challenge anyone to find me a long-term Iraq commitment strategy that does not entail a draft. It would be nice if the
ARVNIraqi Guard could take over but their US trainers say we’ve got years and years before that happens. If the insurgents keep up their current pressure then by then there won’t be anyARVNIraqi Guard left to fight.We’ve practically never had a war that didn’t stimulate massive recruitment. Here just the reverse has happened; making this year’s goal is pure fantasy. The army that we have now simply cannot keep up its current commitments without coming apart entirely; double and triple-tours have become the norm and anybody who claims that the NG was meant to be used this way can please sit in the corner with a pointy hat.
Bush hopes that he can put off the inevitable until a Democratic administration has to pull the trigger. Won’t that make a pleasant House-warming gift; the army will be twice as strained as we are now and the draftees will still be a year from full combat readiness.
Jimmy Jazz
Chocoration
james richardson
lemme see if i have this straight—the bush administration is bringing in some of the evil traitorous liberal elite academics to use their pagan witchcraft on our fine moral soldiers’ morale?
pardon me while i check to see if hell’s frozen over.
JR
Don Meaker
We should understand that there is a bunch of seasonal variation in recruiting. Note the low numbers in December.
The recruiting is not fixed, but it isn’t broken either. One robin does not mean Spring, nor does one frost mean winter. Our nation must be defended for the long haul, and the resources of the US far exceed those of the terrorists.
Democracy is a winning proposition, and if you don’t think so, feel free to move to a country that better suits you.
Jimmy Jazz
Which part of “7,800 recruits behind schedule” are you having trouble understanding, Chauncy Gardiner?