I just caught some more of the coverage, and it just keeps sounding like things are getting worse and worse. I don’t know if the situation in some areas is actually getting worse, or if desperation is starting to set in.
It is, however, starting to be clear that the City of New Orleans was not adequately prepared for this- barring that this is the worst case of the bad case scenarios, and there really is no way to deal with it. I tend to think it is more of a situation where little can be done.
I am a little shocked that there was not more of a plan in place to fix a possible breach of the levee. If this was the worst case scenario, surely the city had to have a plan to patch it should it give way. At any rate, it appears that if there was a plan, it failed, and we are left with headlines that read like something from the Onion:
“Huge sandbags planned for levee leaks”
Big sandbags is what we have come up with 36 hours after the levee has broken. I had thought they were going to fill shipping cars (cargo cannisters) and drop those, but I guess not. Big sandbags are what the city is pinning its hopes on.
The whole thing is just so depressing. And, in a sign of things to come, gas prices here jumped from $2.55 to $3.09 in the 8 hours I was at work.
I don’t think people realize that while the death toll may not surpass 9/11 (although having been to New Orleans several times, I fear it will), the impact economically is going to be much worse. The entire gulf economy was just wiped out, and a city of a half million is largley under water.
KC
You’re totally right, John. I think the city should have had a plan as well as the state. Frankly, I think the federal government–and yes, the Bush administration–should have made more preparations to deal with this storm too. After all, it was clear three days before Katrina hit land that New Orleans was in trouble.
That said, I’m wondering, does anybody think it is a good idea to not rebuild the city? Or, would it be better to build the city somewhere safer and let the old New Orleans turn into the swamp it should be? Just curious.
KC
By “swamp it should be” I meant “swamp it once was.”
demimondian
Actually, it’s worse than that: they tried the “big sandbags” yesterday. The sandbags simply sank without a trace. I’m hearing innovative proposals like sinking barges to block the flow.
I think you’re being a little overwrought about the “entire Gulf economy” having been wiped out. Houston’s not chopped liver, and neither are Tampa/St. Petersburg, Pensacola, or the like. The blow is awful: the US oil industry is in the tank, midwestern agriculture is going to be on the ropes for a while, and God only knows what the chemical industry is going to do without Slidell. As I see it, the unvarnished truth is bad enough without enbroidery.
Rafael
Hurrican season lasts until November 30th. SEPTEMBER is the most active month. That is what really worries me right now. What if Florida gets hit by a Cat 3 before the year ends? Can FEMA manage two crisis at the same time? They haven’t done great with just one.
srv
There are obviously 1000s of people in N.O. who weren’t at the SuperDome and would be dead today if the “worst” case had happened.
I for one vote against rebuilding a city below sea level.
Anderson
Laura Rozen:
Exactly. What the fuck have we been preparing for these past 4 years? Jack shit, apparently.
Or, as a leftist folkie I’m fond of sang a while back:
CaseyL
Whether the cause is natural or due to global climate change, weather researchers are consistently predicting the next 10 years or so will see an increase in hurricane severity – not in the number of storms so much as in their intensity.
Last year: 4 hurricanes whipsawed Florida. This year: Katrina. Imagine this being the status quo for the foreseeable future.
The federal government simply won’t be able to bail out the same areas over and over again, not at the tune of $50-100 billion plus every year. Insurance companies sure as hell won’t: most of them have already pulled out of Florida, and the ones that are left charge an arm and a leg for homeowner/flood coverage.
I think what’s ultimately going to happen is, either cities in Hurricane Alley are extensively rethought and retooled… or people will face a choice of being on their own in event of a natural disaster, or leaving the coastal areas. I think most of them will opt to leave over the next 10-20 years.
srv
People,
No, a city of a half million was built below sea level. Give the gov’t a Darwin award.
Yes, please crucify Bush, but let’s also hold the last two generations responsible also.
KC
I lived in SF for a four years when I was in college. I remember when I moved there, the first thing I and my roomate did was put some of those things in our cabinets so none of our stuff would fall out. Honestly, after doing that, I think that was the last time I thought about earthquakes until I actually felt a small one at work several years later.
My point is that I think a sense of complacency sets in for people after a while. I know it did for me. While I knew disaster was possible, I sort of ignored it because, after all, it was just a possibility. My bet is that that kind of attitude afflicted a lot of people in New Orleans, including public officials. How to curb it, I’m not sure.
demimondian
You know, that’s an awfully insightful comment. I live up in the Pacific Northwest, where, yes, we *will* have a major earthquake someday. Looking at the tectonics, we’re “due”.
Now, I could spend my life worrying about that, or I can take the reasonable precautions necessary to make it _as likely as possible_ that the house doesn’t fall down around anybody’s ears. But beyond that, yes, quakes and volcanos are just a fact of life around here. If they bother you, you move.
I don’t doubt that the people of New Orleans felt the same way about hurricanes. I know that my sister-in-law in Jacksonville does — and I would, too, probably, if I hadn’t lived through the night of August 26th, 1992 waiting for Andrew’s eye to come ashore.
srv
I currently live in SF. I’ve lived in Houston. I’ve listened while an F4 tornado wiped out 1400 homes. Complacency is a good excuse for people, but not for governments. While it may upset some peoples sensibilities, rebuilding part of LA, the Bay or Houston every 100 or so years is a win-win situation, considering their contribution to the GDP. While New Orleans is one of few truly great American cities, and I’d support rebuilding Bourbon street for tourism, having 500,000 people live there is just nuts.
JonBuck
The economic and political ramifications of this disaster will echo for years, if not decades. It will be weeks and months before we really know the full extent of the damage.
Complacency kills.
KC
Maybe New Orleans will do what Sacramento did in the 1860s:
George Turner
Several things are worth pondering.
What percentage of NO residents aren’t going to return. Given X that lived from paycheck to paycheck, and Y who won’t find aid to float them for a couple months, Z will find a job where they’ve ended up and won’t go back. Even this morning an evacuee said he was going to start his kids in school in Dallas, and once they’re in, and if he finds a decent enough job, he’ll likely stay in Dallas.
To cut to the point, if you evacuate a city for too long the residents find other work elsewhere and don’t all return. Demographics and income would skew the trend, with those who can hang out in Aruba looking for lost blondes most likely to return, and those with less income to spare less likely, though family connections might be an equalizer.
We’ve never had to abandon a city this long, as residents can travel farther and easier than ever, and most other cities hit by disaster suffered fire, river flood, or earthquake damage, allowing residents to immediately start smearing bricks with mortar instead of moving elsewhere. We’ve also got an outreach system where a NO address on a dirver’s license will likely qualify a bum for aid that was forever out of reach in his benevolent home. Given human ingenuity, this will probably get milked for what it’s worth.
Other problems are that homes don’t normally sit in flood water for an extended period. A couple days worth still requires signnificant rebuilding, tearing out drywall and replacing furniture. How long before foundation cracking, mortar problems, wood rot, and complete rewiring are required?
These and more questions face the residents.
Kimmitt
More and more, I come to understand that Lousiana and Mississippi are high-performing LDCs grafted onto the rest of the country.
Just Some Guy
Almost 300 years ago. Crazy creatures, them humans.
DecidedFenceSitter
Slate Story from someone, according to Josh Marshall, who did his college degree on environmental sciences, and the history of New Orleans.
jobiuspublius
When I think of rebuilding N.O. I think of swamps, not simply buildings. It’s fine to rebuild historic N.O., but modern N.O. should find higher ground. IIRC, modern N.O. was built at the expense of the swamps and is further below sea level than the French quarter. Nothing of national significance should live in a bath tub. It’ll make the next bail out much more afforable.
jobiuspublius
Some places in Mississippi are expected to be inaccesible for weeks, I heard on TV last night. I don’t remeber hearing anything about Alabama.
Steven
I wouldn’t be so hard on the gov’t and the engineers for not being able to repair the levees. Think about how big the hole is…500 yards long by some accounts and 40-50 feet deep…with water constantly pouring through it. There is virtually no way that anything can be done until the levels equalize. And people seriously underestimate the force of water. I saw the video on the Today show from the storm chasers who were in Gulfport and caught the storm surge as it came ashore. It was truly unbelievable.
Jim Allen
Go read this:
http://www.indyweek.com/durham/2004-09-22/cover.html
and see if you still want to wait until “all the facts are in” before we decide that the Bush administration doesn’t deserve the blame. And, yeah, that article is almost a year old, so it isn’t some after-the-fact lefty blame-game using Katrina to bash Bush.
Jim Allen
And while you’re at it, try this one.
http://www.hurricane.lsu.edu/_in_the_news/houston.htm
Key quote:
“[E]arlier this year the Federal Emergency Management Agency ranked the potential damage to New Orleans as among the three likeliest, most catastrophic disasters facing this country.
The other two? A massive earthquake in San Francisco, and, almost prophetically, a terrorist attack on New York City.
The New Orleans hurricane scenario may be the deadliest of all.”
The date on this is December 1, 2001. And the Chimpanzee-in_Chief has the absolute gall to stand before the American public and say, “I don’t think anybody anticipated the breach of the levees.”
Worst. President. Ever.
George Turner
Thanks for that election 2004 article, Jim. I don’t suppose a bloated federal bureaucracy with an axe to grind would EVER complain when some of their recently gained powers were being moved down the food chain.