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You are here: Home / Politics / Domestic Politics / Rita Damage Estimates

Rita Damage Estimates

by John Cole|  September 23, 20059:23 am| 19 Comments

This post is in: Domestic Politics

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This is fabulous news:

Hurricane Rita has the potential to flood an area almost twice the size of New Orleans when it reaches shore early Saturday, causing tens of billions of dollars in damage to the Houston metropolitan area and plunging yet another major Gulf Coast metropolis into disarray.

A study performed last year by the engineering firm Dodson & Associates found that a Category 5 storm could inundate 369 square miles of Harris County, which contains Houston and some of its suburbs. The study estimated the total cost of a worst-case storm at $80 billion, with 75 percent due to flooding and the rest from wind damage.

The roadways on the south side of Houston are virtually empty in this unusual view of the city that always has heavy traffic on Thursday, Sept. 22, 2005. Much of the interstate traffic north of the city is a virtual parking lot as evacuees proceed at a speed of about 4 miles an hour as they flee the approaching Hurricane Rita. (AP Photo/Pat Sullivan) (Pat Sullivan – AP)

“You’re looking at the southeast quadrant of the city of Houston, from downtown to Galveston Bay, being underwater,” said Chris Johnson, president of Dodson & Associates.

That area is home to about 700,000 people, 15 percent of the metro population. It includes the Johnson Space Center, which sits about 20 miles southeast of downtown Houston in a low-lying area threaded by bayous. NASA evacuated the space center Wednesday, shifting ground control over the International Space Station to a Russian space agency facility outside Moscow.

I know it is probably ghoulish to say this now, but at some point, we need to have a serious conversation about the government obligations to people who live in fl0od plains and high-risk area.

From Feb. 20, 2005:

Houston’s perfect storm would feed on late summer’s warm waters as it barreled northward across the Gulf of Mexico, slamming into the coast near Freeport.

A landfall here would allow its powerful upper-right quadrant, where the waves move in the same direction as the storm, to overflow Galveston Bay. Within an hour or two, a storm surge, topping out at 20 feet or more, would flood the homes of 600,000 people in Harris County. The surge also would block the natural drainage of flooded inland bayous and streams for a day or more.

Coastal residents who ignored warnings to flee would have no hope of escape as waters swelled and winds roiled around their homes. Very likely, hundreds, perhaps even thousands, would die.

Meanwhile, as the storm moved over western Harris County, its most dangerous winds, well in excess of 120 mph even inland, would lash the Interstate 45 corridor, including Clear Lake, the Texas Medical Center and downtown.

Many older buildings could not withstand such winds.

Anything not tied down, from trees to mobile homes to light poles, would become missiles, surreally tumbling and flying through the air, flattening small houses, shattering skyscraper windows and puncturing roofs.

The experts have predicted all of this years events, sadly. Reminds me of this Onion story:

Citing years of frustration over their advice being misunderstood, misrepresented or simply ignored, America’s foremost experts in every field collectively tendered their resignation Monday.

“Despite all our efforts to advise this nation, America still throws out its recyclables, keeps its guns in unlocked cabinets where children have easy access, eats three times as much red meat as is recommended, watches seven hours of TV per day, swims less than 10 minutes after eating, and leaves halogen lights on while unattended,” said Dr. Simon Peavy, vice-president of the National Association of Experts. “Since you don’t seem to care about things you don’t understand, screw you. We quit.”

“My final piece of expert advice,” Peavy added, “is that all of you people should just go fuck yourselves.”

Sigh.

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19Comments

  1. 1.

    Krista

    September 23, 2005 at 9:35 am

    I wouldn’t live in the southern U.S. now if you paid me. We might get snowstorms, but not so many that we have to name the damned things, and we don’t lose our houses to them.

    Still won’t stop us bitching about the snow when it does arrive, though.

  2. 2.

    Ben

    September 23, 2005 at 9:50 am

    John says ” know it is probably ghoulish to say this now, but at some point, we need to have a serious conversation about the government obligations to people who live in fl0od plains and high-risk area”.

    Being a libertarian, I agree with you John. However, what about footing the bill for medical costs for people who have bad eating habits? People who speed on the roads and maim themselves or others? The cost of educating illegal aliens? The cost of the per child tax credit? All boondoggles and giveaways, rewards for unhealthy lifestyles. There are a lot of things that tax payers should not be paying for… let’s stop all of it.

  3. 3.

    DougJ

    September 23, 2005 at 10:05 am

    Is there any way anyone can anticipate this flooding? This sure sounds like the fault of the local authorities to me. Not to worry, we’ll spend whatever it takes to get the area back on its feet. But we won’t raise taxes to pay for it.

  4. 4.

    docG

    September 23, 2005 at 10:08 am

    A serious conversation is indeed, needed. But can you imagine the politics and lobbying that would go on in simply defining a high risk area, in that it might lead to government de-funding of disaster recoveries? You can bet, for instance, the areas adjacent to the Mississippi River that have powerful congress men or women would not be flood risks, while those same adjacent areas represented by backbenchers would be designated flood risks. The process would become what military base closures is to the nth degree. I honestly don’t know how we have a serious discussion of any important national questions anymore. “Of the people, for the people, by the people” has become “of me, for me, and for those I have to buy off to get more for me.”

  5. 5.

    Don Surber

    September 23, 2005 at 10:33 am

    Last week, John, you defended Jim Hood, the attorney general of Mississippi for suing insurance companies for flood damage — something they do not cover. He’s doing this because FEMA pays out no more than a quarter-million for a house.

    This week, you question why we rebuild in flood plains. We don’t. FEMA rules call for mitigation.

    Oh well. Maybe Hood can sue the insurers to pay to rebuild in the flood plain so they can collect FEMA money next time

  6. 6.

    p.lukasiak

    September 23, 2005 at 10:36 am

    But can you imagine the politics and lobbying that would go on in simply defining a high risk area, in that it might lead to government de-funding of disaster recoveries?

    we have already mapped out the areas that are flood prone, and require that people with federally backed mortgages have flood insurance. One very good idea would be to require flood insurance in all flood=prone areas — either by requiring it to be part of home-owners insurance policies, or by requiring municipalities to add the flood insurance premiums to local property tax bills.

  7. 7.

    p.lukasiak

    September 23, 2005 at 10:44 am

    BTW, it looks like the evacuation plans of local officials aren’t working out in Texas either. Even though officials recommended evacuations early on, so many people have taken their advice that the routes out of the Houston area have become parking lots……

    and it looks like FEMA is screwing up the Katrina recovery effort in another way. FEMA wants to set up massive trailer parks for th 200,000 families that will be homeless thanx to Katrina. But there are nowhere near 200,000 trailers available, and nowhere near even sites with the necessary infrastructure (power, water, sewage) to put them. Blanco (and this is dumb too) want to put the homeless up in hotels and cruise ships. The obvious answer is putting money into Section 8 housing vouchers — there are over 1,000,000 vacant housing units in the South right now with an average rental cost of $700/month. But Bushco is resisting that obvious solution—mostly because it had planned to severely reduce the Section 8 voucher program (and one presumes, eventually eliminate it.)

  8. 8.

    John Cole

    September 23, 2005 at 10:45 am

    Don- I did nothing of the sort. I highlighted Hood’s exposure of companies acting unfairly- asking people to sign waivers for immediate cash payments. I also believe many of these people are led to believe they will be protected, but aren’t. Further, I think that many of these insurance agencies refse to pay out for legitimate wind damage because the water damage, which is not covered, can be blamed for the wind damage.

    And, regardless, that is not the point. This is going to be a FEDERAL bail-out. Again. Not from insurance providers. That 200 billion slated for Katrina- not insurance agency money.

  9. 9.

    Another Jeff

    September 23, 2005 at 10:51 am

    —-mostly because it had planned to severely reduce the Section 8 voucher program (and one presumes, eventually eliminate it.)

    Good. It would be one of the few right things Bush has done as President. I always love liberals who talk about how great Section 8 is but don’t live anywhere near a neighborhood that has it.

  10. 10.

    Trent

    September 23, 2005 at 11:07 am

    I know it is probably ghoulish to say this now, but at some point, we need to have a serious conversation about the government obligations to people who live in fl0od plains and high-risk area.

    Nothing wrong with this. Clinton asked the same question and acted to discourage people from moving back to the same flood-prone areas. (I don’t know the details, but he talked about this on Larry King Live the other week.)

    And i agree as well. If you want to live on the coast, you have to assume the risk. I think that the federal government’s responsibility lies primarily in infrastructure and disaster relief. But they shouldn’t be doling out money for people to rebuild their summer house. Fuck that.

  11. 11.

    Northman

    September 23, 2005 at 11:15 am

    but at some point, we need to have a serious conversation about the government obligations to people who live in fl0od plains and high-risk area

    Part of the solution would to be to stop allowing developers to build there. New Orleans’ problems stemmed from building into the lowest areas of the bowl its situated in. Galveston has a seawall to protect it from storm surges, but development has pushed beyond its protection without bothering to extend the seawall. It’s just begging to be destroyed.

    I understand those who hate government regulation, but when a disaster strikes, its human nature to want to help. Bush got hammered on Katrina because he didn’t appear as ready to help as he should have been. Regardless of whether we should help people living in disaster-prone areas rebuild, we probably always will. It would be better to find ways to prevent the very predictable disasters, like hurricanes, from doing so much damage in the first place. Forcing developers to either only build in protected areas or to help extend those areas when more area is needed is probably the best way to help lessen the impact on taxpayer wallets.

  12. 12.

    DougJ

    September 23, 2005 at 11:21 am

    Come on people, why should we talk about what to do when floods happen? There is no way anyone can anticipate them. And after they happen, we’ll spend whatever it takes without raising taxes. So what’s the big problem?

  13. 13.

    Trent

    September 23, 2005 at 11:22 am

    I understand those who hate government regulation

    I’ve always said that our country is great BECAUSE of these annoying building codes and regulations, not in spite of them. That’s why SF can survive an earthquake and that town in Iran was completely flattened by one.

    But can’t the private sector regulate itself? Huh, huh, can’t it? Drown it in a bathtub, eh?

  14. 14.

    John Cole

    September 23, 2005 at 11:32 am

    DOugJ- Could you do me a favor and pick only one thread a dfay to fuck up?

  15. 15.

    Northman

    September 23, 2005 at 11:40 am

    The building codes in California are part of the reason I figure gov’t regulation in this area would help.

    In the case of hurricanes, its probably more important, because it doesn’t matter how well you build a place if its going to be underwater when the storm hits. Don’t allow buildings where there is insufficient protection from flooding and you don’t have to pay for the flood damage.

  16. 16.

    Zach

    September 23, 2005 at 11:52 am

    I have a question, what is happening with the Katrina evacuees stili in Houston?

  17. 17.

    Steven D

    September 23, 2005 at 12:01 pm

    At the rate things are going, the Onion and Jon Stewart will soon be the only accurate sources of news.

  18. 18.

    Defense Guy

    September 23, 2005 at 12:24 pm

    DougJ

    Why in the hell would we need to raise taxes when we have all the sweet Iraqi crude to steal. Jesus man, use your head.

  19. 19.

    jenofinquity

    September 23, 2005 at 1:00 pm

    John, the problem is that almost every part of the country is subject to disastrous natural occurrences. Not building in a flood plain seems like a no-brainer, but my entire state is an earthquake, tsunami and volcano zone. Then there are the forest fires across much of the west, terminal drought in the southwest, tornadoes in the flyover, etc. etc. I suppose we could all crowd into North Dakota to avoid the moral hazard of living in an unsafe area — but could we stand it?

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