This is an interesting perspective:
The vast majority of Muslims and even Islamists recoil form the daily pictures of Sunni mass murder of Shia in Iraq. Even Al Qaeda’s number two understands as much and “in a letter made public last week, Al Qaeda’s second in command, Ayman al-Zawahiri, cautioned Mr. Zarqawi against particularly gruesome executions and attacks on Iraqi civilians for fear of their negative impact on the global jihadi cause.” Why do you thing Nazi sympathizers try to deny the Holocaust? Is it because they are proud of it?
Blowing up Westerners may seem like romantic justice to ideological radicals. Blowing up hapless fellow Muslims less so. In other words, the Islamist may have to give up on Iraq and permit an establishment of a democratic form of government there which would accelerate significantly the reform process already underway in the Greater Middle East.
Nor would it be easy for the Islamists to intensify their campaign in the West without causing major difficulties to their Diaspora which includes their own leadership. The home grown London bombing began to put an end to their cherished safe haven of Londonistan. The rest of the West is going to follow suit even more vigorously after the next bombing.
I have to agree with one central aspect of this post- it does seem to me, what with the flourishing cable news enterprises and expanding press in the Middle East, continued mass execution of civilians in the pursuit of some Holy War would on its face seem an untenable and unsustainable endeavor. Your thoughts?
srv
Well, I don’t for a minute believe the story about al-Zawahiri’s letter. Could easily be disinfo. And while AQ (if you believe in Mr. Z) may not be able to sustain attempts to start a civil war on his own (he just has so many #2’s), the Sunni/Baathists will pick up the slack when they see the opportunity.
What if todays Sunni/Baathist insurgent/enablers are just the ones willing to stand up to us? To presume that’s all the ‘bad’ Sunni is d-u-m-b. They’re smarter than that. They’re probably just sitting it out, waiting for us to go. Then they’ll come out and we’ll have a real civil war.
What evidence, anywhere, does anyone have that most Sunni will peacefully accept minority status? Or that the Kurds/Shia will try to accomadate them with representation and oil profits? Rememeber the pleas about where was the Sunni George Washington? Well, we’re still waiting.
Mr. Z and crew are just the crazy show. The real battle in Iraq hasn’t even begun.
Anderson
Fantasy. I’m willing to buy that Zawahiri’s letter is genuine, but he’s calling for an Islamic state, and I think it’s plausible that Iraqis in general (I exclude the Kurds) are much more interested in living under Islamic rule than in “democracy.” And I don’t think that most Sunnis are willing to invite their extermination by diehard resistance; the ones who are willing, are growing fewer & fewer.
The letter is scary as hell, if authentic. Read it and see.
searp
The real problems in Iraq have nothing to do with foreign jihadis and everything to do with a power struggle among ethnic groups. The jihadis commit terrible crimes, but focusing on them as the source of all problems is like focusing on the Totenkopf SS and forgetting about the Wehrmacht.
AQ is a bit player in Iraq and doesn’t determine anything. The focus on these groups is due to (1) the horrible crimes they commit and (2) the need to bolster this Administration’s fantasy that the war was about fighting jihadis.
Steve S
Interesting. I would have suspected Zawahiri to write a letter in Arabic, not English.
Has anybody had Joe Wilson check with Niger to see if this is real?
ppGaz
WRT to WOT and “insurgency” ….
Can we say, “conflate?” While AQ may be supportive of Iraq insurgency, it is not dependent on it. The so-called experts have been wrong about Iraq and the insurgency right along. I don’t expect them to suddenly start getting it all right.
But whether they do or not, or the insurgency wanes, or waxes, will have little to do with worldwide muslim extremism and terrorism. Saying we’re “Winning the war on terror” is like SC Johnson saying we’re “winning the war on roaches”. We’re not, but trying to is putting a lot of money in SC Johnson’s bank account.
scs
I’m optimistic. I think they’ll work it out, slowly over time. There are too many smart people in Iraq for it not to. I know that the Sunni’s don’t want an Islamic fundamentalist state, they have become too modernized for that. The Kurds don’t. The Shiites just want to do their own thing. Who wants this radical Islamic state that Al Quaeda dreams of? No one. Only the foreign jihadis maybe. It’s just not going to happen. The only thing Al Quaeda can do, and can do well, is blow up a lot of people. But without the political organization behind it, it won’t go anywhere.
stickler
Oh, “they” will work it out, all right. Maybe slowly, maybe fast. But the whole question turns on just who “they” are.
The Ba’ath party was a conspiratorial underground group from its foundation in the thirties, until (in Iraq) it took over in the 50s. I’d bet they still remember some of the skills of underground insurgency.
Plus, all of Saddam’s secret police, special forces, and Republican Guards seem to have disappeared from the headlines. Probably they’re running for office and learning the niceties of constitutional democracy. Or something.
I could go through a laundry list of the other “they” candidates in Iraq. Shia, Kurd, Turkmen, and let’s be nostalgic, the Iraqi Communist Party.
How many of “them” are really friends of the USA? How many of “them” want the same kind of democratic, Israel-friendly, oil-blessed country that we do?
scs
I think they, meaning the totality of all the groups, have no better choice than to get along. That is what most disparate groups throughout history have done as they formed countries. They knew in the end they were stronger together than they were separate. Why should Iraq be any different?
Jimmy Jazz
Ah, but which “civilians”? The targets are largely the security services aka “collaborators” (in the minds of both the Sunni insurgents and foreign fighters). There is no national identity in Iraq to speak of, and I’m doubtful that most Sunnis are very disturbed when armed Shi’ite or Kurd militia are blown up when operating in Sunni areas.
On the other hand, when schoolgirls are blown up by random car bombs, it just contributes to the sense of overall insecurity and weakens support for the insurgency.
stickler
I will rein in the snark here, though the low-hanging fruit is so tempting.
Let’s just focus on the sentence which contains the words “as they formed countries,” and presume it’s useful.
Who drew the boundaries of modern Iraq? Who says the partisans (Shia, Sunni, Kurd, Pro-and anti-Baathist) want a new Iraq in those borders? Who defines what that “country” is, at heart? We already know that — whatever else it might be — Iraq will be a nation governed by Sharia law once the new Constitution is approved. That’s a huge change from the secular state that existed before 2003. What other huge changes are a-borning?
And what, with only 150,000 men there, can we hope to do about it?
Bob
“[M]ass execution of civilians in the pursuit of some Holy War would on its face seem an untenable and unsustainable endeavor.” It’s been happening in the region for thousands of years, if you think that there’s any historical accuracy at all in the Old Testament. My guess is that it’s only a local fad and it will peter out in another millenium.
scs
Stickler, you are getting caught up in the small picture again. Many countries throughout the Middle East and throughout the world were formed somewhat arbitrarily, with borders being drawn by politics and warfare rather than some utopian ethnic love for each other. In other words, lots of arranged marriages here. Many countries even in Europe for instance had many warring factions who hated each other and spoke different languages (dialects) and had different religions and through time and some political processes or the other melded into a country and made it work. Germany and Italy are some examples of this that I can think of now.
Who says the people in Iraq DON’T want a new Iraq in those borders? They are practical people like anybody else. As most surveys done in Iraq show, the people want to keep a unified country for now. But does Stickler know better than the Iraqi people? Oh, I will rein in the snark here, though the low-hanging fruit is so tempting.