Yesterday, Kos wrote:
I think it bears restating that Reid just proved to Senate Republicans that Democrats don’t need the filibuster to stop Alito (or any other judge, for that matter).
The Senate has plenty of parliamentary maneouvers available to the minority, any of which would accomplish the same thing in the end — preventing the majority from running roughshod over the minority.
Today should, for all intent purposes, make any talk of a “nuclear option” obsolete.
Could yesterday’s events have been all about Alito? This LA Times piece lends credibility to that theory:
Democrats began gearing up Monday for a high-stakes fight over federal appellate Judge Samuel A. Alito Jr.’s nomination to the Supreme Court but stopped short of threatening to filibuster President Bush’s pick.
Democrats and Republicans predicted that Alito’s fate would probably be decided by the so-called Gang of 14 — senators from both parties who cobbled together a compromise in May that averted a showdown over judicial nominees.
“There is a potential for the Gang of 14 to perform a pivotal — if not decisive — role,” Sen. John W. Warner (R-Va.), a member of the group, said in a statement supporting the nomination.
Privately, senior Democratic staff members doubted that the seven moderate Democrats in the Gang of 14 would consider Alito’s strongly conservative record — or the fact that his ascension to the court could tip its balance — as the sort of extraordinary circumstances that would allow them to support a filibuster.
“I don’t think Democrats are going to say filibuster unless they are sure they want to filibuster and they have the votes,” said a senior Senate Democratic aide, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the political sensitivity of the issue.
The worst thing to happen to the Democrats would be an attempted filibuster that is either broken legitimately, or broken with the nuclear option (which, as Mark Kleiman asserts, is not merely changing the rules, but cheating. I tend to agree, and do not want to see the so-called ‘constitutional option’ employed). Kos may be right that yesterday’s actions may be a shot across the bow should the Republicans attempt to use the nuclear option.
Horshu
Maybe Reid wants the GOP to pass the nucular/constitutional option. If internal polling shows the dems taking back the Senate in ’06, or if he has a great deal of confidence it would happen, how ironic would it be for the GOP to get rid of a minority-protecting procedure right before losing their majority? It wouldn’t really matter as long as a republican is the prez, unless the option gets expanded beyond judicial appointments (and if the GOP uses parliamentary procedure to end those types of filibusters, the Dems could use that as justification for ending other filibusters).
MrSnrub
I thought that those rules were established with every new session of Congress. I guess Reid could pass the rules as they inherited them from the ’04-’05 session though.
Otto Man
Horshu has it right. If the Republicans do away with the filibuster in judicial nominations, I think it’s effectively dead for all matters as well. You can’t kill it in one regard and still use it in another. And that would mean that lots of liberal legislation — from minimum wage increases to health care guarantees — could easily be passed in the Senate the next time the Dems gain control.
But as to John and Kos’s point, I think there is a slight connection here to the Alito nomination — this does show the Dems flexing some muscles at an appropriate time — but I think the real timing issue is that in the wake of the Libby indictments it seemed like an opportune time to demand the full accounting of the Iraq intelligence issues that were promised by Roberts over a year ago.
Bob In Pacifica
Getting rid of the filibuster may serve the Repubs for about 12 months. Changing rules in the middle of unpopular wars is a good way of motivating a change.
I think Reid was flexing his muscles, and that’s what got Frist’s panties in a bunch. I know, he’s also worrying about possible indictments on those insider trading charges, but his dreams of the Presidency are gone.
The most proximate reason for why Reid pulled the Rule 21 thing is a lot closer to the investigation. Take a look at some recent things that Murray Waas wrote about Cheney’s involvement in blocking documents requested by the Dems.
Also, there’s a reprint from Larissa over at Raw Story about Pat Roberts’ efforts to cover for the Administration.
ppGaz
Considering that Alito has been reviewed, and confirmed, before, one has to think that the Dems’ reaction here is mostly theatrical and posturing. Which does not mean that I think Alito is a good choice …. I don’t know enough about him yet to say one way or the other. It also doesn’t mean that I think the Dems’ moves here are not a good idea. Keeping the arrogant Senate Republicans off tempo is fine with me. I’d be in favor of letting the air out of their tires out in the parking lot, too.
Slide
I’m all for confronting the thug Republican party. Let them try the nuclear option. It will be perceived as cheating by the American public that is increasingly looking at the Republicans with dismay. Delay indicted. Frist under investigation. Rove under investigation. Cheney implicated. Libby indicted. Scandals almost everywhere you look. With all that, if the GOP tries to change the rules half way through the game I think it will backfire on them badly.
BTW, Broder has a great column on this today and how the pulling of Miers nomination takes the “deserve an up and down vote” argument away from the Republicans. If a bunch of right wing pundits and bloggers can force Bush to pull the nomination how can anybody demand that the ELECTED Dem Senators allow and “up or down vote”. What good for the goose is good for the gander. Go for it Frist. Lets see if you have the balls.
Stormy70
I haven’t seen evidence of any, yet. I am not holding my breath. I thought yesterday’s stunt was to appease the base for when Alito is confirmed without a major fight.
Slide
Trust me, there will be a major fight. And part of yesterday was connected to that fight. It was a not so subtle message to Senator (insider trading) Frist, that the Dems are going to play hardball if the GOP plans to go nuclear. There are alot of things the Dems can do to completely shut down the Senate if they want to. This told Frisk that they will have no hesitation in doing just that. Guerrilla warfare 101.
Steve
I wonder if people like Jeff G. are under the impression that past Republican minorities in Congress did nothing but sit there and take it, dutifully showing up every day to cast their meaningless opposition votes until the next election.
The truth is that the Senate has always functioned on principles of comity and rules that follow those principles. During the present administration, the GOP has completely ignored the concept of comity, shutting the Democrats out of conference committees entirely, refusing to approve routine subpoena requests. The base loves this, of course, professing shock and dismay that anyone could ever believe the minority has any rights.
Frist finally got to experience how it feels when the other side goes their own way unilaterally, and it doesn’t feel good. Sometimes others do unto you the way you did unto them.
The message I think Reid is sending is that if the majority wants to keep playing this “no holds barred” style, he is going to do the same. And the Democratic plan is not to engage in simple obstruction, but to advance what they consider the business of the American people, the things they would be doing if they were in the majority. One of those things is to force the Republicans to keep their promises and complete phase II of the Iraq investigation.
There is a majority in this country who believes the Administration deliberately misled them regarding the cause for war. It’s an important issue to investigate – far more important than the daily investigations the GOP launched into Clinton’s land deals or whatever, back when they believed that oversight of the Executive Branch was their foremost duty.
Phase I of the investigation looked at how the intelligence was gathered and concluded that it was done fairly, that the intelligence gatherers weren’t improperly pressured or anything. It was a whitewash, of course, but that’s over and done with. And right there in the report it says there’s going to be a phase II, which will focus on what the policymakers did with the intelligence, a subject they deliberately agreed to leave out of phase I. They promised and promised phase II and then, once the election was over, suddenly took the position that it was all “old news” and didn’t need to be done after all.
My own impression is that the Administration built the case for war much the same way as Dan Rather authenticated those memos – look around till you find one person who backs you up, and then ignore everyone who tells you otherwise. But if I’m right or wrong, I think it’s in everyone’s interests to see the truth come out. This idea that we are some kind of fragile country that can’t handle the strain of an investigation during wartime is ludicrous. They should get on with it already.
Shygetz
I have to disagree with John’s statement that the nuclear option would be one of the worst things for the Dems. I think that invoking the nuclear option at a time when the Republican party is already trying to rub the tarnish off of its reputation would be a win for the Dems (but a loss for the country). However, if the Gang of 14 breaks the filibuster ligitimately, then I agree that it’s a disaster for the Dems.
ppGaz
Well, there are only two possible outcomes here, ultimately: Confirmation, or rejection.
Reid is obviously a skilled tactician. I doubt that he will pursue a course of action that creates a disaster for his side if the most likely of the two ultimate outcomes comes to pass. In a minority position, you aim to win wars, not battles. Alito is a battle, not a war.
Steve
There’s not going be any drama if the filibuster is broken “legitimately.” Here is what will happen in the real world in that scenario: There will be several days of debate on the Senate floor, a cloture motion will be made, and the cloture motion will pass (thanks to the Gang of 14), ending debate. Wow, big deal.
There is not going to be some Hollywood-style filibuster which ends with Ted Kennedy being carried out of the Senate chamber by security, still clutching his microphone.
Slide
Interesting polling data from Gallup on Alito, the filibuster and the nuclear option. Good news for the Dems all the way around if you ask me:
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John S.
I think it is interesting to note that the last time Rule 21 was invoked was during Clinton’s impeachment. And guess who invoked it?
I hink it’s safe to say all the “partisan politics” whining going on in the GOP is just a classic case of projection (as Jeff G. has clearly shown).
I reckon the GOP figures if they used 21 for partisan politics, then that must be everybody’s motive for using it.
Lines
The Republican side of the Gang of 14 has already started screeching like mad harpies. In my opinion there is no Gang of 14 anymore. That Gang existed for a single issue, and only the press is keeping the memory alive. DeWine is a particular piece of slime, sitting on the news, Alito spooge still on his chin, lapping up the attention and saying there will be absolutely NO filibuster because Alito is the greatest guy evah!
I don’t understand the Conservative Love Fest of Alito, its baffling to me. He may be intelligent, but I think his record of solo-dissents on important cases marks him as a reactionary activist, and thats just something I would want both sides to avoid.
Reid made an impassioned plea yesterday, trying to get people to notice the continual whitewash of an issue that is of vital importance to America and we see the attack shitzu’s rushing out to nip at his heals and bark. It’s a pathetic repetition of the same strategy that is digging the Republican party deeper and deeper into looking like schoolyard bullies and not like the leaders the Conservatives claim they are.
Congrats, Democrats. You’ve finally done something, is it time now to crawl back into your cardboard boxes and tuck your pathtic little tail under you? Or is it time to lead?
Cyrus
All the war metaphors people are throwing around (about Congressional procedure, I mean) are appropriate, but only to a limited point. I’m reminded of something I read a while back about how part of the problem with Miers was that right-wingers wanted a dramatic fight and humiliating defeat for the left, and Miers wouldn’t give them that. Someone, somewhere, said that responsible people in democracies know that the ends CANNOT justify the means – because there are no ends. If a conflict in a democracy ends with the other side being politically crippled or dead (or actually dead, obviously), then it’s a one-party state and not very democratic any more.
So by all means, I hope Reid and friends use every trick in the book that’s not totally below the belt to end GOP dominance of the government. But when/if he succeeds I hope they reinstate the filibuster, improve minority party representation on Congressional committees, and undo all the other changes enacted over the past five years that made it easier on the majority party to get its way.
But Steve, on another note, thanks, this made my day:
C-SPAN should have scenes like that more often.
Vladi G
The point has been made elsewhere, but the nuclear option also means no more excuses for the thugs. Abortion? School prayer? All that wingnut religious right crap? It’s put up or shut up time at that point. I don’t think most of the moderate Senators want to be forced to have that fight.
Boombo
“C-SPAN should have scenes like that more often”
I agree, it’s a great visual.
Cyrus
Vladi G Says:
Unfortunately, that would never happen. Two reasons. First of all, the filibuster is far from the only procedural complication. When/if the filibuster is gone they could just blame failures on half a dozen aspects of the committee system, or something else. I haven’t heard too many people blaming the filibuster for a lack of reactionary policies being passed anyway – they always blame the courts, and we aren’t getting rid of them any time soon, thankfully. And secondly, it wouldn’t happen for the same reason that the recent bankruptcy bill didn’t cause a mass exodus from the Democratic Party – we all know the Dems aren’t perfect, we just think they’re better than the alternative. Same deal on the right. Even if Frist has not yet sponsored a constitutional amendment outlawing birth control, he’s more likely to than the other guy.
Steve S
It does seem the only people who are talking filibuster are Republicans. I heard an interview with Sen. Nelson(D-Gang of 14) and he said he had yet to hear enough about this Scalito fella to even hold an opinion.
But the GOP is just drooling for that. I don’t understand why, other than to go back to Jeff Goldblum’s projection problem… the GOP is willing to destroy the country just to win a political battle.
Anyway, brilliant move on Reid’s part. Frist is no longer in control of the Senate.
Edison
So true! And look at how GOP Senators are all given the same instructions as to what to say and how they are all running around obediently parroting the same collective script when talking about Reid`s brilliant tactic!
Hilarious!
RA
Bring it on donkeys! Shut down the senate for weeks or months. See what happens to all those Democrats in red states. Ha! Desperation is a wonderful thing to behold.
The folks out there are going to be too embarrassed to admit being a Demoocrat. LOL
The Disenfranchised Voter
Claiming that the filibuster should be done away with shows an obvious misunderstanding of our government and how it was set up to work. The purpose of the filibuster was to protect from a tyranny of the majority–which surprisingly enough–is where we are heading right now. The minority needs to have the ability to stop the majority in certain cases in which the majority are wrong and out of line.
The Republicans won’t even do the Nuclear option. I guarantee it. They know that if they were to 1) it would screw them down the road and 2) history would judge it as nothing more than a reckless power grab by an authritarian Republican party. It would forever be a stain on the Republican party, just like their opposition to civil rights is (sorry, I couldn’t help myself haha).
Doug
I think the Republicans are trying to get a little cute on the filibuster, nuclear option. The pretext under which they will break the filibuster of a judicial nominee is to claim that the filibuster rule does not apply to consideration of judicial nominees. Regardless of the truth of the matter, if they can get 51 Senators to say that the filibuster Rule is simply inapplicable where judges are concerned, then they can proceed with the vote.
Presumably the filibuster would still remain in place for consideration of legislation and would still require a 2/3 vote to change the Senate Rules governing filibusters or a 2/3 vote to invoke cloture for a particular filibuster.
Tulkinghorn
Alito will be confirmed, although there will be a major fight. The Dems will Bork him nearly to death, but not go for the kill. The numbers are just not there for them, and Reid is too clever to over-reach. (I hope.)
The game is to peel independents away from the Republicans. A fair number of those independants have strong libertarian sentiments, and making a big spectacle from the authoritarian-sounding rulings Alito has made could be very effective. The Dems can then get out of the way of the vote, lose honorably, and proceed to scream to high heaven when Alito pens some politically unpopular rulings.
If Alito helps overturn Roe v. Wade, we can expect another 5 Blue states for the long term. A generation of heretorfore moderate-right leaning American women will be permanently driven from the Republican party.
Eric Lindholm
For a filibuster to succeed, the seven Democrats on the Gang of 14 will have to admit they were basically full of it when they said “only in extreme circumstances.” Here’s a guy who was unanimously confirmed to the Third Circuit and now the Democrats will have to invent some criteria to sink him. Shouldn’t and won’t happen.
Shark
Kos may be right that yesterday’s actions may be a shot across the bow should the Republicans attempt to use the nuclear option
Won’t happen. Tom Daschle is out because of obstructionist shit like that. They start throwing temper tantrums to block Alito, they’ll lose more seats than they can dream of in the midterms
Shark
The Senate has plenty of parliamentary maneouvers available to the minority, any of which would accomplish the same thing in the end—preventing the majority from running roughshod over the minority
Parliamentary maneouvers eh? Lets suppose the following outcome happens following the next election: Hillary Pres. with a GOP Senate.
What would KOS think if the GOP used Parlimentary maneouvers to set aside the electoral votes from CA and NY, allowing the GOP candidate to assume the Presidency? (It can happen, remember the Dems challenge to the Ohio vote?)
Does he really want to do down that road?