Bush’s poll numbers have improved slightly. I attribute it to the Barney Cam:
After months of political erosion, President Bush’s approval rating improved markedly in the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll, largely tracking Americans’ more positive attitudes toward the economy.
But his presidency is still plagued by widespread doubts about his handling of the war in Iraq, with 52 percent of poll respondents saying the Bush administration intentionally misled the public when its officials made the case for war. A majority of Americans want the United States to set some timetable for troop withdrawal; 32 percent want the number of American troops reduced, and 28 percent want a total pullout.
The survey, conducted Dec. 2-6, showed Mr. Bush’s approval rating at 40 percent, up from 35 percent a month ago, which was the low point of his presidency. His gains primarily came among men, independents, 18-to-29-year-olds and conservatives. He remains a fiercely polarizing figure, with an approval rating of 79 percent among Republicans, 12 percent among Democrats and 34 percent among independents.
Really, at some point, there is no where to go but up- especially when you were bottomed out at 35%. You can see the complete results here (.pdf), and I like that the NY Times is now attaching the complete results all the time, so I don’t have to waste time figuring out how the writers parsed the results.
M.A.
Quite so. He’ll go up from where he was, especially when (as recently) he hasn’t had any major screwups. If/when Rove gets indicted, Bush’s ratings will dip again; if he does something that’s actually popular, he might even break 50% again.
I think people (left and right) are a little too fixated on the poll numbers. They’re useful as a general guide: Bush isn’t very popular at this point. But there’s always been this idea that the President’s poll numbers are a meaningful guide to how he’ll be received on any given issue, so Democrats went along with Bush on certain things when he had high approval ratings, and the Republicans are backing off now that they’re low. I think in both cases his popularity/unpopularity is a poor guide to how his specific policies will be received.
cd6
Notes:
If house elections were today, Dems have a massive lead in generic ballot, 46-33. Ouch
Only 20% said abortion should not be permitted at all. Why does it always seem like the debate is 50-50? Anti-abortion crowd is a clear minority.
Dick Cheney’s approval rating has gotten back up into the respectable 20’s (barely) and he’s now riding high with 20% approval. Hooray!
Steve S
Because Democrats are stupid.
If you start off asking about parental notification and small things like that, it’s more like 80% support for. Democrats fight against these minor limitations and get branded as being stupid.
It’s the slippery slope stupid argument, akin to what the NRA claims. That if you give minor limitations, soon they’ll want to ban everything. Never happens, but it guarantees you look like k00ks.
BTW, I miss Bill Clinton. He was not nearly as polarizing of a figure. Sure, there were a handful of Clinton haters. But they were a small(albeit vocal handful). Bush haters are now 60% of the nation.
Pb
Looks like Christmas and its (seasonally) lowered gas prices have finally helped out Bush’s poll numbers a bit. Happy holidays from Osama’s Homo-bortion-pot-commie-jizz-porium! :)
Shygetz
Two reasons–first, the anti-abortion crowd is loud.
And the second (and more pernicious) is that it is culturally unacceptable to criticize a position based on religious beliefs. So, fundies can call us murderers for killing womb-babies, but we can’t call fundies psychotic for listening to voices in their heads.
Krista
And sadly, right now, an awful lot of women take the right to choose for granted, and so they don’t speak up the possibility of that right being lost. That’s why the anti-choice crowd (enabled by this administration) has been able to slowly chip away at those rights without anybody making much of a fuss.
John S.
You gotta love Jon Stewart.
db
Political Arithmetik has been tracking these Prez approval numbers very carefully and systematically:
Approval 1
Approval 2
Approval Summaries
Search the entire site for lots, lots more.
Pb
Regarding the abortion issue: a bit more polling. Steve S, looks like it’s more like 36% support for (and 55% opposed) restricting abortion rights, not even close to 80%. The most support the Republicans get for restricting abortion rights is 54% (generally across the board from their core supporters). Whereas for Democratic groups, it ranges from a high of 37% amongst Conservative Democrats, down to just 10% from Liberals.
Paul Wartenberg
I think Bush’s poll rising is due more to the Democrats looking clumsy over the ‘withdraw Iraq’ issue than with any actual leadership skill by the W.
The poll numbers can still take a hit depending on what happens with Abramoff. And with Fitzgerald’s investigation of Rove’s role in the Plame leak. And with Italy’s arresting CIA agents for kidnapping. And the guy suing the CIA for wrongful imprisonment and torture. And the heating bills. And the soon-to-burst housing market. And…