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You are here: Home / z-Retired Categories / Site Maintenance / Open Thread

Open Thread

by John Cole|  January 7, 20063:36 pm| 70 Comments

This post is in: Site Maintenance

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Apparently Tim’s beer blkogging was a smashing success, because neither he nor I feel up to writing anything.

I didn’t do anything last night, but am unmotivated and just prepping for the playoffs. You all fill me in with what I am missing in the comments here, if you like.

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70Comments

  1. 1.

    OCSteve

    January 7, 2006 at 3:54 pm

    Any thoughts on Stephen Hayes reporting on Saddams terrorist connections?

    THE FORMER IRAQI REGIME OF Saddam Hussein trained thousands of radical Islamic terrorists from the region at camps in Iraq over the four years immediately preceding the U.S. invasion, according to documents and photographs recovered by the U.S. military in postwar Iraq. The existence and character of these documents has been confirmed to THE WEEKLY STANDARD by eleven U.S. government officials.

    No connection to terrorism.

    The official continued: “[Saddam] used these groups because he was interested in extending his influence and extending the influence of Iraq. There are definite and absolute ties to terrorism. The evidence is there, especially at the network level. How high up in the government was it sanctioned? I can’t tell you. I don’t know whether it was run by Qusay [Hussein] or [Izzat Ibrahim] al-Duri or someone else. I’m just not sure. But to say Iraq wasn’t involved in terrorism is flat wrong.”

    Certainly not to al Qaeda:

    Speaking of Ansar al Islam, the al Qaeda-linked terrorist group that operated in northern Iraq, the former high-ranking military intelligence officer says: “There is no question about the fact that AI had reach into Baghdad. There was an intelligence connection between that group and the regime, a financial connection between that group and the regime, and there was an equipment connection. It may have been the case that the IIS [Iraqi Intelligence Service] support for AI was meant to operate against the [anti-Saddam] Kurds. But there is no question IIS was supporting AI.”

    only 50,000 of these 2 million “exploitable items” have been thoroughly examined. That’s 2.5 percent

    A whole more is going to come out – especially now that these docs are getting more focus.

    Long article but well worth a full read.

  2. 2.

    InsultComicDog

    January 7, 2006 at 4:00 pm

    May as well blog my cat

  3. 3.

    Pooh

    January 7, 2006 at 4:05 pm

    OCSteve, that is interesting. Any confirmation from more, er, mainstream sources than WS?

  4. 4.

    InsultComicDog

    January 7, 2006 at 4:18 pm

    By OCSteve’s rationale, we should probably be at war with half the countries on the planet.

  5. 5.

    rilkefan

    January 7, 2006 at 4:21 pm

    John, any comment on the report in the NYT that around 80% of Marine fatalties in Iraq due to upper body injuries could have been prevented by available armor the Pentagon has declined to supply?

  6. 6.

    rilkefan

    January 7, 2006 at 4:24 pm

    Sure wish Bush had taken out the terror camp in N. Iraq (an area not under SH’s control) before the war instead of letting Zarqawi live to feast on our later blunders.

    Oh yeah, Bremer admits we didn’t anticipate the insurgency.

  7. 7.

    The Other Steve

    January 7, 2006 at 4:39 pm

    OCSteve – So let me get this straight. Based on documents, apparently captured in Iraq, but have not been released to the public… Hussein had terrorist camps.

    We know this because eleven anonymous informants told Stephen Hayes. But we can’t verify this, because the documents are secret and have not been released.

    Seriously. You want us to take this seriously? This is the same piece of shit reporting that came out before the war proving Hussein had WMDs.

    Engage your brain for 5 seconds. If this information was at all credible, don’t you think the Bush administration would be cheerleading it around the country on a bus tour? Hell, they’ve been doing bus tours to promote information that isn’t credible, what makes you think they’d hide this?

  8. 8.

    srv

    January 7, 2006 at 4:39 pm

    Willy Kristol throws down the truth:

    The Bush administration has shied away from engaging the issue of Saddam and his terror ties. This is both foolish and unmanly. The president is neither. It is past time that he insist that his subordinates get the facts out. Then we can have a serious debate, and reach a better-grounded judgment, about the terror connection.

    You tell him like it is! Yeah!
    2 of the 3 of his cherry-picked silver bullets seem pretty lame. Isn’t it amazing he wants to have a serious debate now about Saddams real connections?

    And we’re supposed to listen, because they’ve all been so credible in the past? My bet – Chalabi and other INC folks have had their hands on these docs first.

  9. 9.

    The Other Steve

    January 7, 2006 at 4:43 pm

    John, any comment on the report in the NYT that around 80% of Marine fatalties in Iraq due to upper body injuries could have been prevented by available armor the Pentagon has declined to supply?

    I’m not sure yet if it’s a lack of armor, or if the soldiers are simply not wearing it, or a combination.

    Body armor is heavy, when you add the steel plates necessary to stop rifle rounds and offer much protection. It’s fucking hot in Iraq. If you’re hot, are you going to want to wear all this stuff around all day long?

    The failure isn’t the armor, or the armored vehicles. It’s the soldiers being placed in an insurgent situation without proper planning or leadership support. As Bremer said, they didn’t anticipate an insurgency.

  10. 10.

    OCSteve

    January 7, 2006 at 4:44 pm

    OCSteve, that is interesting. Any confirmation from more, er, mainstream sources than WS?

    Not really. This guy has been on the case of these docs for months – mostly stymied by the DOD or whoever. MSM has given it zero coverage as far as I can tell (surprise).

    Every private is taught that when you capture/kill the bad guy you collect this stuff. 2 million items, too few translators and analysts. It could take years to go through it all.

    I’m hoping that the folks in charge will give this more priority now. It’s a treasure trove.

  11. 11.

    OCSteve

    January 7, 2006 at 4:46 pm

    By OCSteve’s rationale, we should probably be at war with half the countries on the planet.

    At least the ones supporting terrorism. I’ll include our “allies” the Saudis in that.

  12. 12.

    The Other Steve

    January 7, 2006 at 4:47 pm

    My bet – Chalabi and other INC folks have had their hands on these docs first.

    Is there any doubt?

    These guys are so desperate, they’ll cling onto a rubber ducky if they think it’ll keep them afloat.

  13. 13.

    The Other Steve

    January 7, 2006 at 4:51 pm

    This guy has been on the case of these docs for months – mostly stymied by the DOD or whoever. MSM has given it zero coverage as far as I can tell (surprise).

    Rubber Duckie, you’re the one,
    You make bathtime lots of fun,
    Rubber Duckie, I’m awfully fond of you;
    (woh woh, bee doh!)

  14. 14.

    The Other Steve

    January 7, 2006 at 4:52 pm

    OCSteve – I’m sorry I’m making fun of you. It’s just that you make it so easy by believing articles out of Neocon Pravda.

  15. 15.

    OCSteve

    January 7, 2006 at 5:00 pm

    Seriously. You want us to take this seriously? This is the same piece of shit reporting that came out before the war proving Hussein had WMDs.

    Dude – there are 2 million articles to analyze – hard copy, computer hard disks, floppies even. I’ll agree with you that A) there should have been a lot more emphasis on this, B) The powers that be f’d up by losing translators/analysts and not having enough to go through all this more quickly. It should have been a top priority. The fact that 2.5% of all this material is all they have managed to get through – pathetic.

    If this information was at all credible, don’t you think the Bush administration would be cheerleading it around the country on a bus tour?

    I will be the last one to say that BuchCo has a clue about promoting success. They suck at that.

    This guy has been on this for a long time. He has been filing FOIA requests, etc. They have been denying him access. Just saying – the claims that Saddamn had no ties to terrorism may have come up way too quick. It’s going to be 2025 before we know everything.

  16. 16.

    Ancient Purple

    January 7, 2006 at 5:13 pm

    A new AP poll suggests that Americans want our King to get that pesky warrant before snooping on people.

    I guess the Bush administration will now claim they don’t follow polls, except, of course, when they do.

  17. 17.

    Gold Star for Robot Boy

    January 7, 2006 at 5:27 pm

    I’ll include our “allies” the Saudis in that.

    Hell, I backed invading SA first, before Iraq. We know the Saudis had ties to 9-11. Plus, its army would’ve been a pushover. As for WMDs, money goes a long way in buying dangerous toys – making it a priority to take out the bank.

  18. 18.

    Pat R.

    January 7, 2006 at 5:30 pm

    The poll that Ancient purple quotes has already been pretty thoroughly discredited. For one thing, the sample included 53% Democrats versus 38% Republicans, hardly representative of any recent election history.

  19. 19.

    ppGaz

    January 7, 2006 at 5:38 pm

    By OCSteve’s rationale, we should probably be at war with half the countries on the planet.

    Bush has three more years, a difficult midterm election, and freefalling public admiration to deal with.

    Give him time. “Half the planet” doesn’t seem like that much of a challenge for these spuds.

  20. 20.

    Gold Star for Robot Boy

    January 7, 2006 at 5:39 pm

    The link OCSteve provides, here’s an explanation why the Pentagon doesn’t want to release all the documents:

    The main worry, says DiRita, is that the mainstream press might cherry-pick documents and mischaracterize their meaning. “There is always the concern that people would be chasing a lot of information good or bad, and when the Times or the Post splashes a headline about some sensational-sounding document that would seem to ‘prove’ that sanctions were working, or that Saddam was just a misunderstood patriot, or some other nonsense, we’d spend a lot of time chasing around after it.”

    Cherry-picking and mischaracterization. Really.
    Shorter DeRita: “Our political enemies will do the same thing with the data we’ve already done, and we can’t have that.”

  21. 21.

    srv

    January 7, 2006 at 5:48 pm

    You know what’s really going to be sad? GW’s law about presidential records. Basically, his presidential library will be more of a time vault behind barbed wire. Only to be opened after his death.

    Hey, I got an idea. Maybe Guantanamo should be the location of his library!

  22. 22.

    OCSteve

    January 7, 2006 at 5:51 pm

    Give him time. “Half the planet” doesn’t seem like that much of a challenge for these spuds.

    Not half the planet – but I can certainly think of 3 that need an ass-kicking. In order: Iran, Syria, SA,

    Now, to verify my red-neck credentials, I’ll add “Get ‘er done”.

  23. 23.

    Bruce in Alta California

    January 7, 2006 at 5:58 pm

    My congressman John Doolittle’s silk panties are in a bunch, but he is not going to give up the $4,000 campaign contribution from Abramoff.

    Doolittle’s ties to Abramoff
    The following is a look at Congressman John Doolittle’s ties to Jack Abramoff’s lobbying, including political contributions from Abramoff, the tribes that hired him, and SunCruz Casinos, since 1999:

    Recipient / Donor / Amount / Cycle

    Superior California Fed Leadership Fund* / Mississippi Band of Choctaw Indians / $9,000 / 2004
    Superior California Fed Leadership Fund / Agua Caliente Band of Cahuilla Indians / $5,000 / 2002
    Superior California Fed Leadership Fund / Coushatta Tribe of Louisiana / $5,000 / 2002
    Superior California Fed Leadership Fund / Mississippi Band of Choctaw Indians / $5,000 / 2002
    Superior California Fed Leadership Fund / Saginaw Chippewa Indian Tribe / $5,000 / 2004
    Superior California Fed Leadership Fund / Tigua Indian Reservation / $5,000 / 2002
    Superior California Fed Leadership Fund / Saginaw Chippewa Indian Tribe / $4,000 / 2002
    Superior California Fed Leadership Fund / Agua Caliente Band of Cahuilla Indians / $3,000 / 2004
    Superior California Fed Leadership Fund / Mississippi Band of Choctaw Indians / $3,000 / 2006
    John T. Doolittle (R-Calif) / Abramoff, Jack A & Pamela / $2,000 / 2000
    John T. Doolittle (R-Calif) / Abramoff, Jack A & Pamela / $2,000 / 2002
    John T. Doolittle (R-Calif) / Chitimacha Tribe of Louisiana / $2,000 / 2000
    Total: $50,000**

    Doolittle’s wife Julie Doolittle is involved also. She runs Sierra Dominion Financial Solutions, which has poored money into Doolittle’s campaign and into her pocket in the form of commissions. Between 2002 and March 2004, Sierra Dominion worked for Abramoff, a close friend of the congressman

    Doolittle faces competition in the primary in the form of Mike Holmes, a 65-year-old retired Navy captain.

    On the Democratic side, Charles Brown, a retired Air Force Lieutenent Colonel is runing in the Democratic primary.

    Either way, I hope either military candidate overthrows Doolittle, who’s name is an oxymoron, in my opinion.

  24. 24.

    Perry Como

    January 7, 2006 at 6:08 pm

    How about the disgusting smear job the MSM has pulled on Tom Delay? The liberal media has done such a vicious job he has now stepped down from his leadership position.

  25. 25.

    Gold Star for Robot Boy

    January 7, 2006 at 6:22 pm

    You’re too obvious, Perry.

  26. 26.

    OCSteve

    January 7, 2006 at 6:25 pm

    How about the disgusting smear job the MSM has pulled on Tom Delay?

    Sorry – but John’s comment section is such that I can’t tell if you are serious or not…

    DougJ is that you :)
    FTR – they did. I didn’t think he was that great anyway, if he is corrupt in any way he needs to go down. But the Earle indictments – pure BS and 100% political.

  27. 27.

    jg

    January 7, 2006 at 6:25 pm

    Stephen Hayes has been banging this drum for years. The reason none of his findings get any play is because they don’t add up. No way is Saddam funding or supporting a movement that he has no place in. The goal of the jihadi mon=vements is an Islamic theocratic state. Saddam’s rule is secular. Incompatible. I’ll grant that Saddam gives a figuarative ‘high five’ to anyone who bugs us or Israel but he does it at a distance and for the same reason the Saudi’s do it. To look good in the eyes of the average middle easterner. Saddam tosses out a token ‘the west sucks’, or ‘Islam rules all’ every now and again to keep people on his side if the shit goes down. Didn’t work. He was abandonded and left in a hole but it was a nice try.

  28. 28.

    OCSteve

    January 7, 2006 at 6:51 pm

    He was abandonded and left in a hole but it was a nice try.

    No try here really – I’m just saying it will be years before we know the truth.

    We still have stuff coming out about WWII. We won’t know the truth here for many years. This is just one aspect of that.

  29. 29.

    John S.

    January 7, 2006 at 6:51 pm

    But the Earle indictments – pure BS and 100% political.

    You of course are stating an opinion based on…on what, exactly?

    Lord knows this is not a statement of fact – until proven otherwise.

  30. 30.

    Pb

    January 7, 2006 at 6:54 pm

    Pat R.,

    Ipsos-Reid generally does a decent job with the polls, and this one doesn’t look that odd, considering. More importantly, it’s the first poll that I’ve seen taken in 2006. I expect that we’ll have more to compare it with within another week or so. However, I will predict now that it will not be an outlier. What do you think about that?

  31. 31.

    demimondian

    January 7, 2006 at 6:59 pm

    Quote for the day: “Dante and Milton were amazing men. They wrote about Hell without seeing it. Me, I live in Seattle.”

  32. 32.

    Pb

    January 7, 2006 at 7:00 pm

    John S.,

    Well, that’s what Tom DeLay thinks about it too, and if we can’t trust him… heh. Personally, I think we should have explained to the Republicans decades ago that money laundering is illegal. They still just don’t seem to get it.

  33. 33.

    Pooh

    January 7, 2006 at 7:05 pm

    Other Steve,

    Good point about the armor. I’m wondering whether this represents a tactical decision (maybe justified, maybe not, we have no control group.) or a failure of planning/procurement. If the mission involves a lot of manuevering, it might make sense to not dress like a medievil knight, especially in 115 degree heat. I can’t pretend to be an expert on the subject…

  34. 34.

    Jay

    January 7, 2006 at 7:07 pm

    John, did you read my email? Any chance for link?

    Thanks

  35. 35.

    jg

    January 7, 2006 at 7:13 pm

    He was abandonded and left in a hole but it was a nice try.

    No try here really – I’m just saying it will be years before we know the truth.

    I didn’t mean ‘nice try’ to you. It was to Saddma’s attempt to look jihadi in the eyes of the rest of the middle east.

  36. 36.

    Ross

    January 7, 2006 at 7:23 pm

    Hey everyone, I’ve been reading the blog for about 6 months and this is my first post to say hi and introduce myself. I enjoy the balanced debate that goes on here and the smaller community vibe on this site – compared to some of the bigger blogs. cheers!

  37. 37.

    The Disenfranchised Voter

    January 7, 2006 at 7:40 pm

    But to say Iraq wasn’t involved in terrorism is flat wrong.”

    Unfortunately for you the douchebag who said that, people didn’t argue that Saddam had no connection to terrorism at all. They argued that Saddam had no ties to anti-American terrorist groups, such as Al Qaeda. It is well-known and accepted by just about all that Saddam had ties with pro-palestinean terrorists, like Hamas.

    What I find truly hilarious is that 11 top officials in the government are confirming this, yet they are unwilling to give their names…

    Why would officials want to remain anonymous when this report would only support the Administration? Use your brain dude, and this isn’t even mentioning the fact that the WS is nothing but a Neo-conservative think tank disguised as a news magazine.

  38. 38.

    The Disenfranchised Voter

    January 7, 2006 at 7:44 pm

    The poll that Ancient purple quotes has already been pretty thoroughly discredited. For one thing, the sample included 53% Democrats versus 38% Republicans, hardly representative of any recent election history.

    Too bad you just discredited your own intelligence with such a moronic statement. Take a sociology class. They will teach you about polling science. Your belief that the number of Dems/Repubs has to equal the ratio in elections is misguided and shows that you are ignorant when it comes to the science of polling.

  39. 39.

    The Disenfranchised Voter

    January 7, 2006 at 7:47 pm

    But the Earle indictments – pure BS and 100% political.

    Well there we go. When you make such a ridiculous statement as the one above–which could have been said by a spoof–you lose all credibility with me and I’m sure others as well. I won’t be responding to any more of your posts.

  40. 40.

    Paddy O'Shea

    January 7, 2006 at 8:11 pm

    The Coriolis Effect

    http://www.pollkatz.homestead.com/files/NEWBUSHINDEX_27229_image001.gif

  41. 41.

    guyermo

    January 7, 2006 at 8:15 pm

    TSA has a trial program at Rochester International Airport (MN) that allows every-day people go to past that mysterious security barrier and actually see their loved ones to the gate!

  42. 42.

    ppGaz

    January 7, 2006 at 8:32 pm

    Now, to verify my red-neck credentials, I’ll add “Get ‘er done”.

    We’d have stipulated to the red neck.

    ;-)

  43. 43.

    GTinMN

    January 7, 2006 at 8:33 pm

    Stephen Hayes is always making shit up
    He’s purely a neocon propagandist, and keeps flogging the same old crap because he’s paid to do so. As noted by The Other Steve, if there was any actual evidence for Saddam working with Bin Laden, it would have been dug up and flouted by now, one thing Bushco does well is trumpet success, although their incompetence at actually governing requires them to often maket that up too.

  44. 44.

    Andrew Reeves

    January 7, 2006 at 8:35 pm

    The goal of the jihadi movements is an Islamic theocratic state. Saddam’s rule is secular. Incompatible.

    Well, the U.S. worked fairly closely with similar homicidal Salafis in Afghanistan, and the U.S. and those guys didn’t exactly share similar goals, just a common enemy.

    Though my gut judgment is that this business is going to amount to a whole lot of nothing.

  45. 45.

    KCinDC

    January 7, 2006 at 8:41 pm

    …when the Times or the Post splashes a headline about some sensational-sounding document that would seem to ‘prove’ that sanctions were working, or that Saddam was just a misunderstood patriot, or some other nonsense…

    Amazingly, that’s not some wingnut blogger or talk-show blowhard ranting that the New York Times and the Washington Post believe Saddam is a misunderstood patriot. The official spokesman of the Pentagon believes, or pretends to believe, this stuff. If the people in power now are so round-the-bend that they really believe the Times and the Post are supporting Saddam Hussein, then how difficult is it to believe they’d be spying on journalists — or even targeting them in Iraq?

  46. 46.

    The Disenfranchised Voter

    January 7, 2006 at 9:00 pm

    Good point KCinDC.

  47. 47.

    Jolly

    January 7, 2006 at 9:05 pm

    Now, to verify my red-neck credentials, I’ll add “Get ‘er done”.

    Um, I don’t think we have enough soldiers to do all this. Are you going to enlist?

  48. 48.

    Perry Como

    January 7, 2006 at 9:10 pm

    If the people in power now are so round-the-bend

    I’m deducting two points for not using the phrase “jumped the shark”.

  49. 49.

    rilkefan

    January 7, 2006 at 9:12 pm

    “Your belief that the number of Dems/Repubs has to equal the ratio in elections is misguided”

    TDV, I’m not a trained pollster, but I believe this is a controversial point – does one weight the sample to the underlying distribution? How much variation from the underlying distribution is acceptable before one decides the selection is biased?

  50. 50.

    Perry Como

    January 7, 2006 at 9:18 pm

    TDV, I’m not a trained pollster

    Look it up for 5 minutes on the internets. It seems that that’s how everyone else becomes an expert on things these days.

  51. 51.

    demimondian

    January 7, 2006 at 9:45 pm

    It seems that that’s how everyone else becomes an expert on things these days.

    Certainly, that’s the way most of the so-called research done by the left-leaning idiots in the main-stream media get their “stories” when they aren’t making them up out of thin air.

  52. 52.

    Jolly

    January 7, 2006 at 10:06 pm

    Certainly, that’s the way most of the so-called research done by the left-leaning idiots in the main-stream media get their “stories” when they aren’t making them up out of thin air.

    Like WMD in Iraq? And all the terrorist threats that caused the Bushies to raise the threat level prior to the elections in 2004?

    I agree – it really is annoying when those guys make this shit up. And it must really be annoying to the Americans who died from having to go to Iraq.

  53. 53.

    demimondian

    January 7, 2006 at 10:37 pm

    Like WMD in Iraq? And all the terrorist threats that caused the Bushies to raise the threat level prior to the elections in 2004?

    I’m glad you pointed out those examples, because they’re myths caused by the phenomenon Perry described.

    Because the MSM is spoiled by getting all its “evidence” through trivial searches these days, reporters believe that anything which takes more than thirty seconds of effort to find from the comfort of their Aeron chairs just simply doesn’t exist. The WMDs — we haven’t *found* any, but you know we’re still looking.

  54. 54.

    Paddy O'Shea

    January 8, 2006 at 9:33 am

    The Bush Trash had better get their Apologias in gear this morning. The slaughter of Americans in Iraq contimues unabated with 17 more deaths within the last 24 hours, 30 since Thursday.

    AP: Five Marines Killed In Iraq, Military Says
    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060108/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iraq

    AP: 12 Dead After Helicopter Crash In Iraq
    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060108/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iraq_helicopter_crash

  55. 55.

    SmilingPolitely

    January 8, 2006 at 9:56 am

    Suns beat the Spurs. I’m happy and horny.

  56. 56.

    Pat R.

    January 8, 2006 at 10:06 am

    The Dienfranchised Voter has demonstrated repeatedly that he has no functioning brain, most recently in his ludicrous post above about “polling methodology.” If he will wander over to the patron saint of all loony-tune nutjobs, Daily Kos, he will find evidence that Kos himself thinks the poll is shit….much like the brains of The Dienfranchised Voter.

    http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2006/1/7/164559/1164

  57. 57.

    The Disenfranchised Voter

    January 8, 2006 at 11:27 am

    I don’t know what is more hilarious. Your obliviousness to how ignorant you sound when you claim that the Dem/Repub ration has to equal recent election numbers to be valid or the fact that you present Markos (whom I don’t really care for) as some sort of rebuttal to my point.

    To only further debunk your bullshit claims, I shall present the post you linked to:

    From the National Journal’s Charlie Cook, who is huge big factor in the DC conventional wisdom.

    On the House:

    On the other side of Capitol Hill, Democrats would need a 15-seat gain to win a majority in the House, which is currently divided at 232 Republicans and 203 Democrats. But while the numbers are different, the dynamics are much the same: there just aren’t enough competitive open seats or vulnerable Republican incumbents on the table for Democrats to have a realistic shot at winning a majority […]

    Ultimately, as of this writing, we list a total of 28 seats as competitive –10 are held by Democrats and 18 are held by Republicans. For Democrats to pick up 15 seats – the number they need for control of the House – it would mean that they’d need to win almost every one of the vulnerable Republican seats (an almost 85 percent win rate), while not losing any of their own. Those are very long odds, even if the political winds are blowing favorably for Democrats.

    While there may be more Republican retirements in the coming months and some of those might be in competitive districts, and while Democrats do have some time before many filing deadlines for candidates pass, it is unlikely that they will be able to put the 50 Republican seats in play that is thought to be necessary to have a reasonable chance of scoring a net gain of 15 seats. A more likely result is that Democrats end up with a net gain of between four and nine seats, roughly cutting the Republican margin in half in this midterm election campaign.

    On the Senate:

    In the Senate, where Republicans have a 55- to 45-seat majority, Democrats need to gain six seats to secure a majority. A five-seat gain that would bring the chamber to 50-50 does not help Democrats much since Vice President Cheney would break tie votes in favor of the GOP […]

    The bottom line is that even if one assumes that Republicans are going to have a very bad election year in 2006, the odds are still quite high that they will maintain a majority in the Senate, albeit with a diminished margin. It appears today that Democrats will pick up two to four seats, which would leave Republicans with 51, 52 or 53 seats instead of the 55 seats they hold now.

    This actually sounds about right. While a huge wave could bring us control of at least one chamber in 2006, the odds are against it. Chances are we’ll gain roughly as many seats as Cook says in the House and Senate, positioning us nicely for a 2008 takeover.

    Now where exactly does it say that he thinks the poll is shit? I see absolutely no mention of the validity of the poll itself.

    Nice try though. And thank you, honestly, you make my work too easy.

  58. 58.

    Pat R.

    January 8, 2006 at 1:18 pm

    You’re too disingenuous, Dienfranchised Voter, or more accurately, just a fucking LIAR, as you fail to note that Kos endorses the conclusions of Cook, which means that the poll result YOU cited isn’t worth SHIT….which most likely is a fair description of your brain.

  59. 59.

    The Disenfranchised Voter

    January 8, 2006 at 1:51 pm

    You said the poll was discredited. That means the poll was invalid.

    You are wrong about it being invalid because the reason that was given for it being discredited were bullshit.

    You also said that Kos thinks the poll is shit and pointed to an article which says nothing of the sort.

    Talk about being disingenious.

  60. 60.

    The Disenfranchised Voter

    January 8, 2006 at 1:52 pm

    *were=was

  61. 61.

    The Disenfranchised Voter

    January 8, 2006 at 1:53 pm

    On top of that, Mr. Asshat, I didn’t cite any poll results. Check the thread.

  62. 62.

    demimondian

    January 8, 2006 at 1:55 pm

    OK, fun’s over, DougJ.

    TDV, Pat R. is to Pat Robertson as T. Mag. was to Tom Maguire.

  63. 63.

    Pat R.

    January 8, 2006 at 2:10 pm

    C A U G H T ! !

    But Dienfranchised Voter is STILL a dumb shit….even Kos agrees with that conclusion.

  64. 64.

    demimondian

    January 8, 2006 at 2:16 pm

    C A U G H T ! !

    Hee-hee-hee. :)

    I’ve been having a grand time watching your sock puppets play ball the last couple of days. I’m really impressed — every time I come up with a DougJ filter, you mutate. I’m going to stop telling people what I watch for pretty soon, just to defend myself against being made to look like more of a fool than I normally do.

  65. 65.

    demimondian

    January 8, 2006 at 3:03 pm

    Seriously, Doug. I’m trying to figure out what rules I should follow when I’ve caught you. (In this case, I caught you yesterday morning and asked for advice here.)

    I don’t want to jump in whenever I realized you’re fishing, but I also don’t feel entirely right about letting you go on unimpeded. Not everybody is as good-natured about being hooked as, say, ppG. What rules do you suggest I follow?

  66. 66.

    The Disenfranchised Voter

    January 8, 2006 at 4:19 pm

    Bah! I’ve been had!

  67. 67.

    Krista

    January 8, 2006 at 8:48 pm

    demi – just sit back and laugh. Or, play along. That’s what I usually do.

  68. 68.

    demimondian

    January 8, 2006 at 10:09 pm

    Or, play along. That’s what I usually do

    How does one do that?

  69. 69.

    Krista

    January 9, 2006 at 3:03 pm

    As soon as you realize (or suspect) that a troll has entered the premises, egg him or her on to even greater and greater heights of rhetoric, just to see where it all winds up. Someone usually winds up catching on before too long, anyway.

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    Because I am bored Meme….

    I cant get up for much serious blogging, so I have been on a meme hunt, this one I got from Cobb. 1. What time did you get up this morning? About Noon 2. Diamonds or pearls? Diamonds 3. What…

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