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You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / The Latest From Israel

The Latest From Israel

by Tim F|  July 19, 20066:27 pm| 89 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, War

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Putting recent events in the frame that I described below:

* Kevin Drum notes that Israel may not want to destroy Hezbollah but merely degrade it. This agrees with my understanding of the situation – the political pressure within Israel does not mandate that Olmert make Hezbollah go away entirely, merely that they stop firing rockets into Israel. Hezbollah’s newer Iran and Syria-made rockets require a relatively sophisticated infrastructure to fire which means that Israel has a decent chance of making most (but obviously not all) of them inoperable before the UN is able to impose a truce. Kevin’s correspondent also notes that Hezbollah has built itself an infrastructure that upgrades them from a pure guerilla force to something approaching a regular army, which paradoxically makes them much more fightable with conventional forces. The more that you have built up, the more that your enemy can knock down.

* Israel has already begun invading Lebanon. Either the domestic political pressure became unbearable, the risk of an external peace deal became too immediate or Israel has decided that Hezbollah can no longer resist effectively. Suing for peace now sounds appealing except for two factors: Hezbollah will not stop fighting voluntarily, and I cannot stress enough how damaging it would be for Olmert if Israel were forced to withdraw while rockets kept raining from Lebanon.

* In case anybody was still unsure, Israel has declared that it has no interest in fighting Syria and Iran. Any widening of this conflict would inflict tremendous Israeli casualties for negligible benefit and would distract, at least in the short term, from the goal of ending the Hezbollah rocket fire. Michael Savage can go cry in his Cabernet Franc.

* Also via Kevin Drum, a scoop from Garance Franke-Ruta that could prove politically damaging (to say the least) if any Americans are hurt in this escalating conflict:

Individuals within the State Department, I am told, have been reluctant to create an impression that the Israeli assault on Lebanon is as bad as it is or that civilian U.S. citizens are being threatened by U.S. ally Israel. If a conflict this severe had broken out in, say, Indonesia, the American embassy would have been shut down the next day and its personnel and families rapidly brought to safety….The diplomatic message sent by shutting down the U.S. embassy in the face of Israeli bombing would have contradicted the U.S. government message of support for the Israeli mission against Hezbollah terrorists.

* I had an illuminating conversation last night about how exactly the factions can deal with this in the mid/long term. It seems to me that Israel needs another occupation like it needs a hole in the head, which leaves basically one option. If Israel demotes Hezbollah from quasi-army back to ragtag guerilla outfit and participates aggressively in the rebuilding of Lebanon and particularly a central Lebanese army, the chances are very good that Lebanon will exert its prerogatives and clamp down on the Hezbollah troublemakers by itself. For one thing the simplest definition of a government may be whoever owns the monopoly on force, and no functioning government can long tolerate an independent entity using force within its borders. Worse for Hezbollah is their sponsor (Syria) who grows increasingly unpopular among the Lebanese. In my view Israel can help guarantee the security of its own government by contributing generously to that of Lebanon.

As always, post your updates in the comments.

***Update***

* To add, of course Israel must take more care to avoid civilian casualties. Apartments and gas stations can be rebuilt, but you cannot reassemble children.

Twelve-year-old Nour lay heavily bandaged and fighting for her life in a hospital in the southern Lebanese city of Tyre. She is one of many children killed and injured in Israeli air strikes on this Mediterranean port in past days.

More ambulances streamed into the hospital and doctors hurried to treat the victims of the latest bombing. Whatever the Israelis’ intended target, the bomb fell on a small water canal next to the Qasmia refugee camp, home to about 500 Palestinians. Its victims were 11 children taking an afternoon swim in the canal.

People who support Israel should make an extra effort to demand that she avoid handing these PR gifts to her Hezbollah enemy. And yes, Hezbollah’s indiscriminate rocket barrages are no better.

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89Comments

  1. 1.

    p.lukasiak

    July 19, 2006 at 6:48 pm

    In my view Israel can help guarantee the security of its own government by contributing generously to that of Lebanon.

    since Israel is dependent on US foreign aid, shouldn’t we just cut out the middleman and send the money ourselves?

  2. 2.

    Pb

    July 19, 2006 at 6:50 pm

    If you’ll pardon some cold numerical calculation for a minute… Regarding Hezbollah’s rocket arsenal–it’s thought that they have 10,000-13,000 rockets total, and by now they’ve already fired 1700 or so. And the death toll is up to 300 Lebanese and 40 Israelis (24 of them civilians). Statistically speaking, it sounds to me like Hezbollah hasn’t been that successful with the rocket attacks–they could fire all of their rockets and still they wouldn’t be likely to kill as many people as Israel has already killed. Is that because everyone in the north of Israel is hunkered down in bomb shelters or has fled south already?

  3. 3.

    Marcus Wellby

    July 19, 2006 at 6:56 pm

    The diplomatic message sent by shutting down the U.S. embassy in the face of Israeli bombing would have contradicted the U.S. government message of support for the Israeli mission against Hezbollah terrorists.

    Surprised? http://www.ussliberty.org/

  4. 4.

    Tim F.

    July 19, 2006 at 6:57 pm

    they could fire all of their rockets and still they wouldn’t be likely to kill as many people as Israel has already killed.

    You are missing the point of the rockets attacks. Hezbollah’s mortars, mines and antitank rounds, not its rockets, are meant to kill people. Their rockets guarantee that Israel will invade and give Hezbollah’s mortars, mines and RPGs a chance to kill people.

    since Israel is dependent on US foreign aid, shouldn’t we just cut out the middleman and send the money ourselves?

    I would enthusiastically get behind that idea. But at least sentimentally it is crucial that Israel contribute something.

  5. 5.

    Steve

    July 19, 2006 at 6:58 pm

    Dead Lebanese children? Sounds like Tim has become a clueless dupe for Hezbollah propaganda.

  6. 6.

    82ndAbnVet

    July 19, 2006 at 7:01 pm

    These rockets they are firing are not much more powerful than a mortar shell. And they’re not all that accurate either. Its WW2 technology actually. Yeah if it happens to land 10-20 meters or less from you, you are toast (or at least a casualty), but they don’t have anywhere near the destructive power of say a 500lb bomb

  7. 7.

    Pb

    July 19, 2006 at 7:15 pm

    Tim F.,

    Hezbollah’s mortars, mines and antitank rounds, not its rockets, are meant to kill people. Their rockets guarantee that Israel will invade and give Hezbollah’s mortars, mines and RPGs a chance to kill people.

    Well, given the choice, I’d rather see the IDF and the terrorists fight it out themselves, instead of–as you mentioned in your update–watching children die on both sides. However, it’d be better to not have that choice in the first place, of course.

  8. 8.

    Pb

    July 19, 2006 at 7:19 pm

    82ndAbnVet,

    Thanks for the info, that’s the general impression I got as well–they didn’t look like they had that much destructive power when I saw them talking about the rocket attacks on TV.

  9. 9.

    Zifnab

    July 19, 2006 at 8:08 pm

    Yeah if it happens to land 10-20 meters or less from you, you are toast (or at least a casualty), but they don’t have anywhere near the destructive power of say a 500lb bomb

    Hardly comforting. But at least Hezbollah isn’t flinging any Taepodongs into the country.

  10. 10.

    Tsulagi

    July 19, 2006 at 8:31 pm

    Hardly comforting. But at least Hezbollah isn’t flinging any Taepodongs into the country.

    Ummm, I hear they’re equipped with the earlier Nodong. It can’t reach targets as deeply.

  11. 11.

    Perry Como

    July 19, 2006 at 8:53 pm

    Ummm, I hear they’re equipped with the earlier Nodong. It can’t reach targets as deeply.

    You should see what Maedong can do.

  12. 12.

    Nutcutter

    July 19, 2006 at 9:24 pm

    According Alfalfa Darrell, the World’s Biggest Cocksucker, we can’t prove that the dead children are innocent.

  13. 13.

    LITBMueller

    July 19, 2006 at 9:27 pm

    Current death rate: 10:1.

    And the Brits are have a good point:

    A senior British official said: “Our concern is that Israeli military action is not having the desired effect. We’re not seeing the level of impact [which Israel and its allies would want].” Hezbollah was “still highprofile in southern Beirut”, even if its claims to have lost only three fighters underplayed the damage done. “We’re not seeing any large-scale destruction of Hezbollah rockets,” the official added, “and we don’t know where they are.”
    …
    The Israeli action had “disrupted Hezbollah but there’s not much more they can do with an extensive campaign”, a British official said. “We are concerned that continued military operations by Israel will cause further damage to infrastructure and loss of civilian life which the damage to Hezbollah will not justify.”

    But the need for Ehud Olmert, the Israeli Prime Minister, to appear tough at home might tempt him to continue even when the military value was slight, officials suggested.

    The Bush Administration, by contrast, has given Israel a green light to continue its attempt to crush Hezbollah.

    Ahhhh….the twisted politics of death.

  14. 14.

    Nutcutter

    July 19, 2006 at 9:40 pm

    The Bush Administration, by contrast, has given Israel a green light to continue its attempt to crush Hezbollah.

    The last time Israel was in Lebanon trying to get rid of Hizbollah, they were stuck there for 18 years and finally gave up.

    If the Israelis were as good at carrying out their policy as they are at killing civilians, maybe they’d had succeeded the first time?

  15. 15.

    Sherard

    July 19, 2006 at 10:15 pm

    Fucking typical.

    “Take care to avoid civilian casualties”

    In this case, there are 2 options:

    1) They intentionally targeted these 11 children, or

    2) It was a mistake, even if the target was in the vicinity.

    So which is it smart guy ? Are you accusing them of intentionally targeting children, or are you saying they should be perfect and not have mistakes ? Perhaps you could enlighten us with the plan you implemented during YOUR last military incursion to strike only military targets, never miss the target, and not cause any collateral damage in doing so.

    I won’t hold my fucking breath waiting.

  16. 16.

    tBone

    July 19, 2006 at 10:15 pm

    You should see what Maedong can do.

    It’s not the size of the missile, it’s the motion in the atmosphere that counts.

  17. 17.

    tBone

    July 19, 2006 at 10:21 pm

    Are you accusing them of intentionally targeting children, or are you saying they should be perfect and not have mistakes ?

    False choice fallacy. You should apologize to Tim.

    I won’t hold my fucking breath waiting.

  18. 18.

    Pb

    July 19, 2006 at 10:29 pm

    Sherard,

    Fucking typical.

    “Take care to avoid civilian casualties”

    I know, right? Those pussies, always on your case. “Clean up your room”, “Take out the garbage”, “Be nice to your sister”, “Take care to avoid civilian casualties”…

    In this case, there are 2 options:
    1) They intentionally targeted these 11 children, or
    2) It was a mistake, even if the target was in the vicinity.

    Hey, maybe it was a mistake. I mean, there are all sorts of scenarios and excuses you could come up with in a hypothetical situation. “We didn’t know there were children there.” “How were we supposed to know that everyone in that house / on that bus / in that block *weren’t* Hezbollah terrorists?” “OMFG, a 500 lb. bomb does *that*?” etc., etc. Or, maybe they were a bit sloppy–sloppy, like, dropping thousands of bombs across an entire country sloppy. Or, maybe they thought they were justified in doing it anyhow. Who knows.

    However, whatever explanation you *do* come up with, it won’t help those children now.

    Perhaps you could enlighten us with the plan you implemented during YOUR last military incursion to strike only military targets, never miss the target, and not cause any collateral damage in doing so.

    Ok, I will. The last military plan I gave on a conflict went, in short, something like this: “Don’t invade Iraq”. That advice would have saved hundreds of billions of dollars, as well as the lives of thousands of US soldiers, and tens (if not hundreds) of thousands of Iraqi civilians. It would have caused no collateral damage. No one would have been imprisoned or tortured. And we’d be free to handle any actual, *serious* threats that might have come up. So, next time, when I have a military plan, listen to it, smart guy.

  19. 19.

    The Other Steve

    July 19, 2006 at 10:38 pm

    These rockets they are firing are not much more powerful than a mortar shell. And they’re not all that accurate either. Its WW2 technology actually.

    Ok, that might be true of the Kathy rockets.

    But there are also indications that they’ve gotten upgraded missiles from Iran. missiles with guidance systems of some sort.

  20. 20.

    Nutcutter

    July 19, 2006 at 11:12 pm

    “Tell them to stop right away. Not everyone is terrorist. It’s not our fault.”

    Thirteen year old Lebanese girl injured by Israeli bomb.

    Following the Alfalfa/Darrell rule, her remarks cannot be taken seriously since there is no proof that she is an “innocent” victim.

  21. 21.

    Nutcutter

    July 19, 2006 at 11:12 pm

    “Tell them to stop right away. Not everyone is terrorist. It’s not our fault.”

    Thirteen year old Lebanese girl injured by Israeli bomb.

    Following the Alfalfa/Darrell rule, her remarks cannot be taken seriously since there is no proof that she is an “innocent” victim.

  22. 22.

    Nutcutter

    July 19, 2006 at 11:20 pm

    In this case, there are 2 options:

    No, those are not the only options.

    For example, much more likely option is that there was no targeting of the civilians, and no mistake either. Instead, it’s calculated. There is a strategic goal and a certain number of civilian casualties are just a cost of the strategy … a cost that will be born by people you will never see, or whose screams you will never hear, because you are a couple hundred miles away in another country.

    It’s a calculation, by people who are fucking liars and lunatics, who say that God is on their side, when God wouldn’t touch them with a fucking ten foot pole.

  23. 23.

    Emile

    July 20, 2006 at 12:46 am

    There is a strategic goal and a certain number of civilian casualties are just a cost of the strategy … a cost that will be born by people you will never see, or whose screams you will never hear, because you are a couple hundred miles away in another country.

    Yep. I suspect a person would do some serious rethinking of the situation when you’re face to face with the eight year old you are going to kill. Bastards.

  24. 24.

    Ross

    July 20, 2006 at 12:59 am

    No, those are not the only options.

    For example, much more likely option is that there was no targeting of the civilians, and no mistake either. Instead, it’s calculated. There is a strategic goal and a certain number of civilian casualties are just a cost of the strategy … a cost that will be born by people you will never see, or whose screams you will never hear, because you are a couple hundred miles away in another country.

    It’s a calculation, by people who are fucking liars and lunatics, who say that God is on their side, when God wouldn’t touch them with a fucking ten foot pole.

    The Israelis certainly seem to be aiming for civilian buildings… small wonder they might hit civilians in the process. Israeli strikes have destroyed about a dozen factories including a dairy farm, pharmaceutical plant, several plastics factories, paper mill, tissue factory, and medical supply factory. Juan Cole reports that today Israel bombed a Lebanese hospital, but I haven’t seen this in any news outlets yet… so take it for whatever you will.

  25. 25.

    Tim F.

    July 20, 2006 at 7:15 am

    False choice fallacy. You should apologize to Tim.

    Yup, Sherard’s post was a textbook case of false dichotomy. Interesting how each partisan stakes out his/her own set of favorite fallacies.

  26. 26.

    Steve

    July 20, 2006 at 7:59 am

    I just want to note that I called this one several days ago.

    The simplistic form of the argument tends to boil down to this: either you think Israel (substitute the US in Iraq, if you like) is intentionally targetting innocent civilians, and what kind of monster would do such a thing, or else any time an innocent civilian dies it’s an unintended accident, and well, accidents happen in war. Many of us have a gut feeling that the analysis ought to go a tad deeper than that.

    Thanks for Sherard for providing a demonstration of how the simplistic argument looks.

  27. 27.

    Bob In Pacifica

    July 20, 2006 at 8:39 am

    The missile that hit the Israeli ship off the Lebanese coast sounded a lot more like a cruise missile than a katyusha. That would suggest that Hezbollah may in fact have more advanced weapons. Not enough of them to make a difference in this war, but a warning as to what can happen to shipping and U.S. warships in the Straits of Hormuz if the Bolton crowd got its way and went after Iran.

    +++

    Clearly, the purpose of this war is to destabilize Lebanon again. That’s what Israel wants: dysfunctional nations. That’s why they liked the invasion of Iraq and that’s why they’d love to see Syria fractured down to its tribal constituencies.

    +++

    Pb, did you see my mea culpa a day or two back? My erroneous claim that the two Israeli soldiers were seized at Shebaa Farms was based on a garbled BBC news story. There were also border Shebaa skirmishes there at the same time as the border incursion (the exact location of which I am still not sure). My bad.

  28. 28.

    Tim F.

    July 20, 2006 at 8:47 am

    a warning as to what can happen to shipping and U.S. warships in the Straits of Hormuz if the Bolton crowd got its way and went after Iran.

    We already know that Iran has a generous stable of Sunburn antiship missiles, which are the most dangerous weapons of their type on Earth. If we opened a war with Iran they would immediately A) close off the strait of Hormuz (they could do that with artillery and a few scuttled tankers), and B) use their Sunburns to sink everything left in the Gulf. Hezbollah used an Iranian variant of a Chinese variant of the Sunburn.

  29. 29.

    Nutcutter

    July 20, 2006 at 8:52 am

    “I saw (them) carrying the body of a child that was missing the bottom half. I saw a charred 3-year-old.”

    Account of American being evacuated from Beirut yesterday.

    Remember, according the the Alfalfa/Darrell rule, these slaughtered children cannot be assumed to have been innocent because there is no proof that they were innocent.

  30. 30.

    Pb

    July 20, 2006 at 8:58 am

    Bob In Pacifica,

    Pb, did you see my mea culpa a day or two back?

    Yep, and I replied to it then (briefly, no need for you to find it…) as well–thanks again for the update/correction!

    My erroneous claim that the two Israeli soldiers were seized at Shebaa Farms was based on a garbled BBC news story.

    It happens. Nice job using ‘seized’ instead of ‘kidnapped’ this time, btw. :)

  31. 31.

    Marty

    July 20, 2006 at 9:14 am

    Thanks Marcus Wellby.

    I really appreciate the link to the USS Liberty.

    I am going to repeat James Lileks from several days ago:

    It takes a certain kind of person to see a liberal free society attacked by Islamicists, and find himself wondering: what are those crafty Jews up to now?

  32. 32.

    Punchy

    July 20, 2006 at 9:20 am

    But..but…but….CNN has been interviewing Americans being evacuated for 3 days straight. Little to no analysis of the situation (wouldn’t want to piss off Wolf), no BBC-style investigation and reporting….just Anderson “Snowdome” Cooper in a flak jacket interviewing pretty Lebanese-Americans.

    If the BBC would be broadcast on standard cable channels, Americans would be SHOCKED at the truth and candor by which they report actual events.

  33. 33.

    Steve

    July 20, 2006 at 9:21 am

    Yes, and it takes a certain type of person to go around wantonly making accusations of anti-semitism. A rather cheap one.

  34. 34.

    Nutcutter

    July 20, 2006 at 9:31 am

    It also takes a certain kind of person to look at sixty years of war, death and destruction and conclude that the problem lies with only one side of the conflict.

    It takes two sets of sociopaths to drag people through sixty years of war. To keep repeating the same cycles of delusion, revenge, reprisal and righteous outrage over and over again. To say, in the 21st century, that they do this because “God is on our side.”

    The idea that one version of religious fanatacism and radicalism is good, and another bad, is morally reprehensible.

  35. 35.

    Zifnab

    July 20, 2006 at 10:07 am

    If the BBC would be broadcast on standard cable channels, Americans would be SHOCKED at the truth and candor by which they report actual events

    If you want honest reporting today, you have two choices. PBS or the Daily Show. One of them was almost shut down by Congress a year or so back. The other one’s anchor has been accused of being a threat to America. So next time you ask where all our responsible reporting has gone, just flip on Comedy Central. Or don’t. Because it might be too dangerous.

  36. 36.

    Steve

    July 20, 2006 at 10:11 am

    Are you trying to persuade through sheer repetition or something?

    There’s certainly no shortage of religious fanatics out there, but I suspect for the vast majority of people caught up in this conflict, their primary motivation is what they think of as self-defense.

    What do they teach the little children, to make them carry on the conflict for all these years? I’m sure “God is on our side” is in there somewhere. But the primary message is about how evil the other guys are, the terrible things they’ve done in the past, how they’d kill us all given half the chance.

    It strikes me as simplistic to believe that if no Biblical prophecies were involved, one side or the other would readily abandon what they perceive as their “home.”

  37. 37.

    The Other Steve

    July 20, 2006 at 10:16 am

    It also takes a certain kind of person to look at sixty years of war, death and destruction and conclude that the problem lies with only one side of the conflict.

    Actually I’d say it takes a special kind of nut cutter.

  38. 38.

    The Other Steve

    July 20, 2006 at 10:19 am

    It strikes me as simplistic to believe that if no Biblical prophecies were involved, one side or the other would readily abandon what they perceive as their “home.”

    Agreed. Biblical verses aren’t reason… they are excuse and justification. That is, you’ve already made up your mind now you just have to find a verse that gives you moral authority in the argument.

  39. 39.

    Nutcutter

    July 20, 2006 at 10:19 am

    Are you trying to persuade through sheer repetition or something?

    Oh no, Steve. I think that persuasion lies in saying some different bullshit every day. That way it’s fresh.

    WTF? Do you ever read anything I say? How many times have I said this? I am not out to persuade anyone about anything. And I think anyone who comes to blahworld to do that is just kidding himself.

  40. 40.

    Nutcutter

    July 20, 2006 at 10:20 am

    Actually I’d say it takes a special kind of nut cutter

    What the hell does that mean?

  41. 41.

    Steve

    July 20, 2006 at 10:25 am

    WTF? Do you ever read anything I say? How many times have I said this? I am not out to persuade anyone about anything. And I think anyone who comes to blahworld to do that is just kidding himself.

    I know. My attempt to ascribe a productive motive to you was pure charity. But I’d be interested what you have to say about the substantive point.

  42. 42.

    Nutcutter

    July 20, 2006 at 10:26 am

    It strikes me as simplistic to believe that if no Biblical prophecies were involved

    That’s just fascinating. What does that have to do with what I said?

    Considering some land your “home” is not a license from God or a stamp of approval from God.

    It’s an opinion, and nothing more. What is the relative merit of “Arizona is my home” as compared to “America is my home” or “Earth is my home?” They’re just subjective notions.

    What the hell are you doing anyway? Suggesting that feeling at “home” is justification for sixty years of sociopathic bullshit?

    What a crock.

  43. 43.

    Nutcutter

    July 20, 2006 at 10:27 am

    But I’d be interested what you have to say

    Uh sorry, but the evidence indicates that that’s just bullshit. I have no reason to think that you are interested at all.

  44. 44.

    Nutcutter

    July 20, 2006 at 10:29 am

    My attempt to ascribe a productive motive to you was pure charity.

    Again, I have to go on the evidence. Charity is not likely to be your motive.

  45. 45.

    The Other Steve

    July 20, 2006 at 10:30 am

    Hezbollah used an Iranian variant of a Chinese variant of the Sunburn.

    Thanks for the link.

    Israel also claimed they took out a Zalzal missile. Apparently it went off after they hit the launch pad, flew into the sky and then came back down. This is believed to be the source of claims that an Israeli jet was shot down.

    These missiles… the stories say they are launched from trucks, which is true. But these are large enough that it’s a special truck. Not a pickup.

    That’s what is so amazing here… the US has been completely surprised that Hezbollah had these weapons.

    I can’t help but wonder if this isn’t the information that Israel became aware of which made it decide to launch this all out attack.

  46. 46.

    The Other Steve

    July 20, 2006 at 10:32 am

    Effective tomorrow, Arizona will be returned to Mexico since we unfairly stole it form them.

  47. 47.

    Nutcutter

    July 20, 2006 at 10:33 am

    Effective tomorrow, Arizona will be returned to Mexico since we unfairly stole it form them.

    That taunt has already been made, and answered, last week.

    And or course, it’s hopelessly inapt.

  48. 48.

    Steve

    July 20, 2006 at 10:36 am

    What the hell are you doing anyway? Suggesting that feeling at “home” is justification for sixty years of sociopathic bullshit?

    Well, what the hell are you doing, suggesting that feeling “God is on our side” is justification for sixty years of sociopathic bullshit?

    Oh, wait. You weren’t saying it’s a justification. Well, guess what, neither was I.

    Uh sorry, but the evidence indicates that that’s just bullshit. I have no reason to think that you are interested at all.

    The evidence indicates that you haven’t actually looked at the evidence. I have plenty of productive discussions with people here. I much prefer the interesting discussions to the shit-slinging.

  49. 49.

    Nutcutter

    July 20, 2006 at 10:37 am

    I much prefer the interesting discussions to the shit-slinging.

    Uh huh.

    So, what exactly is your one-sentence appraisal of what Israel is doing in this situation? Try to include a reference to the “God is on our side” part. You know, so it looks like you are trying to have a conversation.

  50. 50.

    Faux News

    July 20, 2006 at 10:42 am

    Effective tomorrow, Arizona will be returned to Mexico since we unfairly stole it form them.

    Can we just give Texas back to Mexico instead of Arizona? I’m sure no one would object on either side.

  51. 51.

    Nutcutter

    July 20, 2006 at 10:43 am

    The evidence indicates that you haven’t actually looked at the evidence

    The evidence indicates that if somebody disagrees with you, you start talking like Darrell. I haven’t looked at the evidence? I HAVEN’T LOOKED AT THE EVIDENCE? Because I don’t agree with you, I haven’t looked at the evidence?

    Maybe I take the evidence to mean something different from what you take it to mean, and maybe that isn’t a reason for you to talk to me in your asshole dismissive tone or say that if I am consistent, I am guilty of trying to “persuade through sheer repetition.” Maybe the fact that what was true a week ago is still true today is just a fact, and saying it’s a fact is the appropriate thing to do?

    Or would agreeing to any of that be beyond the scope of the crap you peddle as “productive discussion?”

  52. 52.

    Steve

    July 20, 2006 at 10:45 am

    It looks to me like Israel is primarily trying to create a new buffer zone in southern Lebanon, to make it harder for them to be attacked.

    I don’t see where God enters into the military agenda, but that’s ok because you didn’t give me a second sentence anyway.

  53. 53.

    Pb

    July 20, 2006 at 10:47 am

    Zifnab,

    If you want honest reporting today, you have two choices. PBS or the Daily Show. One of them was almost shut down by Congress a year or so back. The other one’s anchor has been accused of being a threat to America. So next time you ask where all our responsible reporting has gone, just flip on Comedy Central.

    No lie. The tragically ironic bit about that piece on Scarborough Country is, they had a guy from *Newsmax* telling people how dangerously skewed *The Daily Show* is! I mean, come on, at least The Daily Show is honest about their fake news, unlike Newsmax, or apparently even Joe Scarborough’s show on MSNBC at times.

  54. 54.

    Nutcutter

    July 20, 2006 at 10:47 am

    I’m sure no one would object on either side.

    Yeah, well, if it’s BJ humor, fine. But Arizona is made up of land that has various histories. The lower third of the state falls into the Gadsden Purchase, for example.

    Texas is …. well, I don’t pretend to really understand Texas at all. Aside from its barbeque, I can’t understand the reason for its existence.

  55. 55.

    Steve

    July 20, 2006 at 10:47 am

    The evidence indicates that if somebody disagrees with you, you start talking like Darrell. I haven’t looked at the evidence? I HAVEN’T LOOKED AT THE EVIDENCE? Because I don’t agree with you, I haven’t looked at the evidence?

    Yeah, I don’t think anyone who reads my posts on this site could reasonably conclude I have no interest in having a discussion.

  56. 56.

    Nutcutter

    July 20, 2006 at 10:48 am

    I don’t see where God enters into the military agenda

    You don’t think that delusional “god is on our side” thinking has driven the sixty year history on both sides of this dispute?

  57. 57.

    Pb

    July 20, 2006 at 10:49 am

    Faux News,

    Can we just give Texas back to Mexico instead of Arizona? I’m sure no one would object on either side.

    Brilliant. Texas always wanted to be “The Lone Star State”, so give them what they want, and let them handle it. Then we’ll have a ‘buffer zone’ of our own.

  58. 58.

    Nutcutter

    July 20, 2006 at 10:52 am

    I don’t think anyone who reads my posts on this site could reasonably conclude I have no interest in having a discussion.

    I didn’t say that. I said the evidence indicates that your “I’m interested in what you have to say ….” and “I’m being charitable …” assertions are not supported by evidence.

    If you really think you are “interested” in what I have to say about anything, or that you are really trying to be charitable — as opposed to condescending — then feel free to start demonstrating that now. If those motives are clearly demonstrated, I might follow the lead. But keep in mind that I’ve been strongly persuaded otherwise up to this point, so one pretend post isn’t going to get the job done.

  59. 59.

    Steve

    July 20, 2006 at 10:58 am

    You don’t think that delusional “god is on our side” thinking has driven the sixty year history on both sides of this dispute?

    Of course there are plenty of fanatics, and there have been throughout the history of this conflict. I just think it’s a mistake to describe it as the primary driver. The Greeks and Turks manage to squabble just fine over Cyprus without anyone’s holy land being at stake, after all.

    I think most people involved in the Arab-Israeli conflict hate the other side because of all the atrocities they’ve committed or supposedly committed, not because God tells them to hate the other side. Maybe religious motivation was a stronger factor in the conflict once upon a time, but there’s been so much water under the bridge since then that I think religion is no longer the first thing on most people’s minds.

  60. 60.

    tomtom

    July 20, 2006 at 11:05 am

    The evidence indicates that there is ample evidence for us to conclude that evidence of evidence in fact exists, evidently.

    sorry.

  61. 61.

    Nutcutter

    July 20, 2006 at 11:08 am

    I just think it’s a mistake to describe it as the primary driver. The Greeks and Turks manage to squabble just fine over Cyprus without anyone’s holy land being at stake, after all.

    Then we’ll have to agree to disagree. I think it is the primary driver.

    And the fact that other territorial disputes may not have the religious component or may have it to a smaller extent is not convincing to me.

    I firmly believe that (some) Israelis and (some) Hezbollah and (some) Palestinians and (some) Lebanese are driven by delusions of not just divine permission, but divine instruction, to act out their sociopathy. Same for Al Qaeda. All the same. All religious (or religious-sounding) fanatacism is the same crap AFAIC.

    Further, I think that arguing .. or even “discussing” … the arcana of these situations, like Who Struck John, or whether missiles can be fired from trucks or not, or whether somebody captured somebody else’s soldiers … is a cover for excusing that sociopathy. It’s the same thing Republicans do when they start arguing the arcana of the Iraq situation. Or for that matter the arcana of any situation. It’s the ever present jackalope.

    You can say anything, and say it all day, and you (this is you, generic, not you personally) will not convince me that sending bombs and missiles that blow children in half is justifiable in the current ME situation, I don’t care who is firing the weapons, Arab, Jew, Syrian, Iranian, Palestinian, or Martian.

    Same thing I said last week. It was true then, and it’s still true today.

  62. 62.

    Nutcutter

    July 20, 2006 at 11:10 am

    evidence of evidence in fact exists, evidently.

    Hearsay.

  63. 63.

    Steve

    July 20, 2006 at 11:26 am

    I firmly believe that (some) Israelis and (some) Hezbollah and (some) Palestinians and (some) Lebanese are driven by delusions of not just divine permission, but divine instruction, to act out their sociopathy. Same for Al Qaeda. All the same. All religious (or religious-sounding) fanatacism is the same crap AFAIC.

    Well, I don’t disagree with much of this, but I do draw a distinction with the terrorist groups like al-Qaeda, because I think they are explicitly organized around principles of religious fundamentalism. I don’t dispute that you can find (some) regular folks in Israel or Palestine that are just as religiously nutty as al-Qaeda, but I don’t think most people fit into this category.

    Analogizing to our own country, I think there are some crazy fundamentalists who think the invasion of Iraq was step 1 on the roadmap to the Rapture, but it’s just one motivation among many. I don’t think Dick Cheney was motivated by Christian fundamentalism, although he was surely happy to have the support of those folks.

  64. 64.

    VidaLoca

    July 20, 2006 at 11:31 am

    Steve, Nutcutter —

    If you don’t mind me taking the liberty of butting in in the middle of your argument —

    there’s been so much water under the bridge

    In a desert, water would be one of the first issues you’d go to war over, and arable land would be high on the list too. Israel gave back the Negev desert because it didn’t have much of either. The Golan Heights as well, but they have strategic military value so they kept them.

    That’s not meant as Israel-bashing; the point is simply that there are material assets being fought over here, not just theologies. Which is not at all to say that zealots don’t exploit religious ideas for material ends.

  65. 65.

    Steve

    July 20, 2006 at 11:44 am

    Let us remember that the neo-con agenda is primarily about offering simple solutions to complex problems, invariably in the form of war. Once you’ve killed all the bad people on your laundry list, the world can’t help but be a better place.

    In this spirit, we have the present military action by Israel. I can’t really analyze exactly what the Israelis are up to but I can certainly parse how it’s seen around these parts. Hezbollah is bad people, something we all agree on; so just eliminate them, disarm them, and then the people of Lebanon are free to go their own way. And we see the mind-numbing simplicity of the neocon viewpoint from people like Darrell and Sherard, who insist against all evidence that Israel is merely engaging in this narrowly targeted mission of disarmament and that any civilian casualties surely must be the minimal amount necessary to achieve this goal.

    But the world isn’t that simple. On a saner note, Greg Djerejian:

    It’s all about “root causes” these days, in places like the pages of the Weekly Standard, and Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice (at least from her talk show utterances) appears to have been seducted by these simplified nostrums too. Eradicate Hezbollah! Hamas too! They are the bad guys, the “nut jobs”, as David Brooks has put it in the august pages of the New York Times. But Hezbollah garnered the second largest number of electoral seats in the Lebanese parliament, having joined up with Nabih Berri’s Amal Party. Hezbollah, in fact, has some 35 seats in a 128-strong parliament, second only to the 72 seats of “Future Tide”, Said Hariri’s anti-Syrian coalition. How do you just eradicate an entire political party, that enjoys major support from the country’s Shi’a population (keeping in mind the Shi’a are the single largest religious sect in Lebanon, representing 30-40% of the population)? And does anyone believe reducing rows of apartment complexes in southern Beirut to heaps of rubble, imposing an air and naval blockade on the entire country, and pummeling Shi’a towns in the south is the answer to this conundrum? Are the Shi’a of Lebanon going to wake up the day after and say, gosh darnit, Nasrallah is just an out and out sonafabitch, and thanks to the Israelis for getting rid of him? Well of course not.

    We had some talk the last few days about the concept of a “proportionate” response, with even good liberals chiming in to say, hey, that sounds like some kind of silly Marquis of Queensbury rule. The larger point is that, by keeping your response proportionate in the eyes of the world, you not only occupy a sort of moral high ground but you also stand a better chance of accomplishing your mission, assuming your mission is something more complex than destroying a country and salting the earth. Djerejian goes on:

    This is not to say the Israelis don’t have a right to self-defense, and that they shouldn’t have pummelled robustly Hezbollah targets firing rockets in the south, and select party leadership targets of import in Beirut–but by acting disproportionately (of which more in a future post), the Israelis are actually not advancing their interests, as anti-Syrian sentiment in Lebanon will increasingly become anti-Israeli instead–especially as the economic recovery and hope and sense of national renewal capsizes around them day by day, with over USD 2B of infrastructural damage and counting, 300 civilians dead and counting, and so on (unlike what you are hearing breathlessly reported by blushed-cheek, if well-meaning, naifs–the Lebanese government is not privately cheerleading this action by any stretch–certainly not at this stage anymore). What was needed was a more proportionate response, one that didn’t jeopardize the nascent fruits of the Cedar Revolution.

    It would be a good thing to eliminate Hezbollah’s military power, just like it was a good thing to take down Saddam. But the neocons’ problem is the willful denial of the bad consequences that accompany those good things. The civilian deaths, the economic costs, the destabilization of political balances, the creation of new enemies. They simply want to look at the positive side of the ledger and ignore the negative side, because if you looked at both sides you might discover the bad outweighs the good.

    We’ll see how the ledger ultimately tallies up at the end of the present conflict but early indications are not looking favorable.

  66. 66.

    Darrell

    July 20, 2006 at 11:53 am

    And we see the mind-numbing simplicity of the neocon viewpoint from people like Darrell and Sherard, who insist against all evidence that Israel is merely engaging in this narrowly targeted mission of disarmament and that any civilian casualties surely must be the minimal amount necessary to achieve this goal.

    Steve, since I never once elaborated on the subject of Israel’s goals and motivations, other than the obvious self defense observation made by you and others.. After pulling that characterization of my views out of your ass and lumping me with ‘Sherard’, do you have the honor to admit you fucking lied? I didn’t think so jackass.

  67. 67.

    Darrell

    July 20, 2006 at 11:56 am

    It would be a good thing to eliminate Hezbollah’s military power, just like it was a good thing to take down Saddam. But the neocons’ problem is the willful denial of the bad consequences that accompany those good things. The civilian deaths, the economic costs, the destabilization of political balances, the creation of new enemies.

    Yes, us simplistic conservatives never considered these possibilities. Bomb evil terrorists = Good.. that’s all we understand. Thank goodness for all you honest and enlightended liberals to show us the way

  68. 68.

    Darrell

    July 20, 2006 at 11:59 am

    If Steve goes unchallenged, he really shows what simpleminded cartoonish worldviews he really holds. He and his fellow liberals = nuanced. Conservatives = black and white. Re-read his posts to see this tendency. Fucking hilarious. Like something out of a cartoon really.

  69. 69.

    Steve

    July 20, 2006 at 12:00 pm

    Steve, since I never once elaborated on the subject of Israel’s goals and motivations, other than the obvious self defense observation made by you and others.. After pulling that characterization of my views out of your ass and lumping me with ‘Sherard’, do you have the honor to admit you fucking lied? I didn’t think so jackass.

    Hmm, no actually you went on and on about how Israel has this great track record and therefore you didn’t believe they had killed nearly as many innocent people as the press has reported. When Juan Cole cited evidence that Israel may have a goal of forcing the people of southern Lebanon to evacuate to Beirut, well let’s just say you disagreed with him. You’ve had quite a bit to say about what you believe Israel is and isn’t doing and I’m actually kind of surprised to hear you claim otherwise.

  70. 70.

    Steve

    July 20, 2006 at 12:03 pm

    If Steve goes unchallenged, he really shows what simpleminded cartoonish worldviews he really holds. He and his fellow liberals = nuanced. Conservatives = black and white. Re-read his posts to see this tendency. Fucking hilarious. Like something out of a cartoon really.

    If I started quoting “simpleminded cartoonish worldviews” from your own posts, I’d be here all day. Re-read everything you’ve written about “liberals” or the “left” to see exactly what I mean.

  71. 71.

    Darrell

    July 20, 2006 at 12:03 pm

    Hmm, no actually you went on and on about how Israel has this great track record and therefore you didn’t believe they had killed nearly as many innocent people as the press has reported

    What I actually said Steve, was that given Israel’s track record, and the inability to definitively know how many civilians were ‘innocent’, it would be adviseable to take the number of reported ‘innocent civilian’ casualties with a grain of salt.

    Certainly an enlightened liberal like yourself could appreciate such nuance, no?

  72. 72.

    Darrell

    July 20, 2006 at 12:06 pm

    When Juan Cole cited evidence that Israel may have a goal of forcing the people of southern Lebanon to evacuate to Beirut, well let’s just say you disagreed with him.

    Now you’re being flat dishonest. You’re lying outright. I objected to Juan Cole’s over the top characterizations such as Isreal’s “indiscriminate wholesale slaughter” of Lebanese. I even highlighted his quotes to make sure there was no misunderstanding.

    Guess you don’t enough nuance to see the difference. Disagree with Juan cole = extremist. Do you see how whacked that view of yours is? I’m glad you’re showing us how extemist you really are, because I’m tired of your phony bullshit.

  73. 73.

    Nutcutter

    July 20, 2006 at 12:09 pm

    I don’t think Dick Cheney was motivated by Christian fundamentalism, although he was surely happy to have the support of those folks.

    Well, this is the kind of lawyerly talk that just drives me up the wall. It’s the reason why I entered into a flame war with you last week on this subject, in case you were wondering. You said you were “interested,” so there’s something interesting.

    But the point is …. when I see a picture of a dead kid, or hear a parent screaming for a kid, and then see a lawyerly argument, I want to kill the lawyer. That’s my visceral reaction at work. Grab your armrests … I blame the lawyers for this. Lawyers who can spin and weave the arcana and “make a case” are the enablers who permit the crazy people, the radicals, to achieve their goals of sociopathy. The neocons, for example. The Wolfowitzes and the Perles and the Rumsfelds and the … all of them. These people give cover for the stupid people, the failed cheerleaders who got made into presidents. The giant egos who want to walk on the world stage and don’t have to give a shit about the dismembered kids because they have the goddammed lawyers to cover for them.

    There is NO moral high ground in this stupid war, other than in stopping it. That is my position. That was my position on Iraq. Not just in 2003 but twelve years before that the first time we went over there to fuck up the region. Unless you (generic you) are under direct and immediate threat to your life and limb, killing civilians and making high-sounding speeches to justify it is immoral. Period.

    Cheney? He’s all of the evil in one package. He has the madman’s gleam in his eye, and the lawyer’s tongue, at the same time.

    Let me be as blunt as possible: Fuck the polite conversation and the lawyerly arguments. Stop the stupid killing. That’s where the moral high ground is, and that is the only right thing to do. I don’t care, literally, whether you are Arab, Jew, or Southern Baptist. I don’t care if you are Republican or Democrat. I don’t care what your politics are, or what land you think is home, or how much you think God is on your side, or how evil you think your enemy is.

  74. 74.

    Nutcutter

    July 20, 2006 at 12:10 pm

    Certainly an enlightened liberal

    From the enlightened shithead who thinks civilian deaths are okay if you can’t prove that they were “innocent.”

  75. 75.

    Pb

    July 20, 2006 at 12:47 pm

    Darrell,

    Highly selective reading and gross distorting of the facts to fit your own biases != nuanced. FYI. Now get back under your bridge.

  76. 76.

    Steve

    July 20, 2006 at 12:50 pm

    Darrell Says:

    If Steve goes unchallenged, he really shows what simpleminded cartoonish worldviews he really holds. He and his fellow liberals = nuanced. Conservatives = black and white. Re-read his posts to see this tendency. Fucking hilarious. Like something out of a cartoon really.

    I seriously can’t stop thinking about this comment and giggling. It’s that funny.

  77. 77.

    Bob In Pacifica

    July 20, 2006 at 12:53 pm

    Pb, Seized, captured, arrested, kidnapped, taken into custody… Depends on what end of the handcuffs you’re on.

  78. 78.

    Nutcutter

    July 20, 2006 at 12:54 pm

    Like something out of a cartoon really.

    And Darrell? Have ya seen the name of the blog lately?

    You’re posting to a cartoon. To an audience that scoffs at everything you say.

    You’re the one out of a cartoon, Pancho. You’re a regular Steamboat Willie.

  79. 79.

    Faux News

    July 20, 2006 at 1:07 pm

    Can we give Darrell back to Mexico along with Texas?

    Pity General Santa Anna lost that war.

  80. 80.

    Steve

    July 20, 2006 at 1:09 pm

    I feel kind of proud that I have been simultaneously accused of engaging in cartoonish stereotyping and of resorting to lawyerly nuance. I guess I’m having a good day.

  81. 81.

    tBone

    July 20, 2006 at 1:27 pm

    He and his fellow liberals = nuanced.

    Yeah, somehow I doubt that Steve believes all of his fellow liberals here are nuanced, especially after this thread and a similar one a few days back.

    Conservatives = black and white.

    Actually Steve didn’t say anything about conservatives. He was talking about neocons.

    Oh. Wait. You don’t actually think neocons = conservatives, do you?

  82. 82.

    Darrell

    July 20, 2006 at 1:31 pm

    Steve Says:

    I feel kind of proud that I have been simultaneously accused of engaging in cartoonish stereotyping and of resorting to lawyerly nuance

    I suppose it’s easy to feel so ‘nuanced’ when stacked up against the cartoonish strawmen stereotypes you attribute to others. Steve is a legend in his own mind

  83. 83.

    The Other Steve

    July 20, 2006 at 1:36 pm

    Can we give Darrell back to Mexico along with Texas?

    Pity General Santa Anna lost that war.

    He wouldn’t have lost, except for that damn Liberal media which failed to report on his victories.

  84. 84.

    Steve

    July 20, 2006 at 1:41 pm

    Yeah, somehow I doubt that Steve believes all of his fellow liberals here are nuanced, especially after this thread and a similar one a few days back.

    It’s not that I don’t appreciate the point you’re making, but don’t you think it’s a little nuanced?

  85. 85.

    tBone

    July 20, 2006 at 1:49 pm

    It’s not that I don’t appreciate the point you’re making, but don’t you think it’s a little nuanced?

    Shut your piehole, you Leftist kook.

  86. 86.

    Pb

    July 20, 2006 at 2:15 pm

    Bob In Pacifica,

    Pb, Seized, captured, arrested, kidnapped, taken into custody… Depends on what end of the handcuffs you’re on.

    Yes, or whose legal authority the author recognizes. The connotational spectrum being, as I see it, arrested / taken into custody / captured / seized / kidnapped.

    Specifically, if someone arrested you, that implicitly acknowledges their legal authority to do so–criminals are arrested. Whereas, if someone kidnapped you, that implicitly acknowledges that it was illegal (and heinous)for them to do so. Children get kidnapped. Captured is neutral. In a conflict, you generally hear about soldiers getting captured or seized (same origin there) by the opposing force, not kidnapped or arrested.

  87. 87.

    ats

    July 21, 2006 at 5:48 pm

    One wonders if the administration’s evidence of Syrian and Iranian control of Hezzbollah is as “irrefutable”* as Colin Powell’s case before the UN.

    * The Washington Post’s assessment at the time–never retracted,

  88. 88.

    Laura

    July 22, 2006 at 1:54 pm

    I don’t know what more can be done to avoid civilian casualities short of Israel not responding militarily at all. The Israelis have done their utmost to avoid harming civilians, but they are held to an impossibly high standard. In fact Israel has killed far less civilians in its military actions then other countries, and those countries never get condemned. One example would be the Russians in Grazny.

Comments are closed.

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  1. Tête-à-Tête-Tête » Blog Archive » Tim F. On the Middle East says:
    July 21, 2006 at 6:31 am

    […] I sometimes have a bad habit of being optimistic, and I guess this is one of those times. Tim F., the Balloon Juice lefty is not a Middle East Expert, so it must be that his analysis leaves room for optimism, and that it is apparently consistent with the facts as they have been related in the media lately, that makes me want to point to and comment on it. […]

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