If this report proves true then Floyd Landis should pretty much pack it in. The Tour’s epitestosterone-to-testosterone threshold is 4-1. Ordinary people never pass 2-1.
Unlike many this won’t sour me on bicycle racing at all. See, I pretty much assumed that races in the past were fairly thick with substance abuse. Before anybody gets me wrong I don’t mean to cast aspersions on Lance, who put up with constant accusations and contant testing without a single shred of evidence. He hardly needed the boost to when his godlike lactic acid threshold, lung capacity and basal metabolism gave him a similar benefit for free.
But Lance aside, I don’t think it is unreasonable to assume that a decent number of riders are juicing in any given race. If the Tour shows the balls to dethrone a champion then a good number will probably think better of it in the future. Good for the tour, it seems to me.
Jon H
What’s the problem, wasn’t Landis on Team Girls Gone Wild?
Caleb
I’ll wait a bit more.
It was reported that everyone who had “flinked” this type of test in the past has won on appeal.
What were the ratios in those tests?
Were there 11-1 test(s) overruled in the past, or proven to be bad tests upone retesting or testing another sample?
Were there “flunks” in the past with a higher ratio than 11-1?
He still has my benefit…..
Punchy
What does this go to those who wagered on it? Online sites obviously paid out Landis by now, but what if someone else is declared the winner? What’s this do to those who bet on Mr. Second Place Who’s Now #1?
Landis, in his interviews, has denied everything. He’s extremely unconvincing (no anger, no rage, no readly explanation), but I’ll wait for sample B.
CaseyL
Are there any natural processes that might cause an increase in testosterone production? For example, having sex the night before the race? Or a big jolt of endorphins from racing the day before?
Landis had such a miraculous day when he made up all that time I really want him to not have cheated.
And, if he did cheat, while of course he needs to pay the penalty, I actually feel kind of bad for him. Such a dumb thing to do, because it was bound to be found out, and turn that marvelous achievement to dross.
Mary
I followed the link and found several commenters at TMV arguing that the reported ratio is deceptive. They say that Landis’ ratio was so skewed because his epitestosterone levels were (allegedly) very low, and that the gross amount of testosterone is his system was pretty low. The cortisone injection he received during the race may have lowered his epi levels dramatically.
I don’t know if they’re pulling these claims out of thin air or not. Can anyone here confirm or deny if these claims are plausible?
Andrew
Good discussion
CaseyL
Wow, Andrew; that’s a very good discussion.
Since I’m not following the story all that closely, I didn’t realize that the initial test results had been leaked to the press in violation of both press protocol and testing protocol. That alone would be enough to make me think the “Landis was doping!” story is a smear job.
Add to it the discussion of how hormone levels fluctuate, are interdependent, and all the other LEGAL drugs Landis was taking (mostly for his bad hip) can also confound the results, and it looks even worse for the rush-to-judgment crowd.
Poor guy. Now I really feel sorry for him. He might become the Richard Jewell of competitive bike racing: a wrongly-accused man who might never get his reputation back.
John M
Armstrong not on drugs? Who are you kidding? All top riders have amazing biophysical stats. But that’s not enough.
OJ was acquitted too, you know.
Paddy O'Shea
Testosterone really can get people in trouble. Just consider the tragic fate of the unfortunate Mr. Tombe.
Sudan Man Forced To Marry Goat
A Sudanese man has been forced to tke a goat as his wife after he was caught having sex with the animal.
The goat’s ownwe, Mr, Alifi, said he surprised the man with his goat and took him to a council of elders.
They ordered the man, Mr. Tombe, to pay a dowry of 15,000 Sudanese dinars ($50) to Mr. Alifi.
“We have given him the goat, and as far as we know they are still together,” said Mr. Alifi.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/4748292.stm
space
A few thoughts:
1. I like Landis. I was a fan of LeMond, but I never much cared for Armstrong. He always came off as a — talented and hard-working — jerk. Landis seems pretty cool.
2. Reasons why I am inclined to believe that Landis wasn’t cheating:
A. What Landis is being essentially accused of — applying a testosterone patch following stage 16 since he didn’t fail earlier tests — doesn’t seem like a big advantage. Using testosterone during training? Yes. After you’ve tossed away your chance to win? Not so much.
B. Landis’ desrciption of his behavior following his stage 16 loss (i.e. going back to the hotel and knocking back a beer with a Jack chaser) does not comport with a man driven to cheating in order to gain an edge. If the guy was so concerned about having the perfect chemical balance in his body for the next day, he probably wouldn’t be hitting the booze.
3. Reasons why I am inclined to believe that Landis was cheating:
A. Doping is rampant in the sport.
B. During Landis’ conference call with reporters Landis was asked if he had ever cheated. He denied ever having done so, but FWIW I did not believe him. My gut feeling is that he is a guy who has doped in the past but not this time.
4. Landis’ greatly benefited by having other top competitors, including Jan Ullrich and Ivan Basso, ousted from this years race. If Landis was cheating then the question in my mind isn’t “Could Landis have won without the testosterone?” But rather, “Could Landis have won against a full field?”
5. Like Major League Baseball, pro cycling’s biggest problem is the attitude of the competitors. Unlike golfers, who would never cover for another’s cheating and would ostracize anyone who cheated, baseball players and cyclists don’t seem to have enough peer pressure to discourage cheating.
John D.
Armstrong has never failed a drug test of any kind, while simultaneously being the most-tested athlete in cycling, a sport that tests far more than any other.
I’m going to need a bit more than your word on this. Got a link with some kind of evidence?
Andrew
Why the testosterone test doesn’t make sense
Pooh
Tim, I’m surprised that as a scientist you are so quikc to hop on the blame-wagon considering the manifest problems with this test (without knowing anything else about it, if you told me that the ‘test’ was simply A/B AND that B was unusually low in this instance, absent telling me that the ratio itself is what matters performance-wise, I’m not sure how you’ve demonstrated anything about anything other than the guy had a beer the night before.)
Richard 23
Why not have separate events where there is no drug testing of any kind? We have the Special Olympics, why not the Super Olympics? Or “juiced” sports? Where everyone can compete and no drugs are barred? I think this might be more entertaining than the regular goodie goodie drug free sports.
Would you rather celebrate with boring snakes or fun filled roman candles and bottle rockets? Go to a sober nightspot or drug and drink fueled nightclub?
I for one would welcome the new enhanced sports!
db
Are these tests done in comparison to what Landis’ normal levels would be?
I mean, I’ve heard that Hillary has got some pretty big gonads, so I would think to be fair to her, we would want to conduct any assessments on her based on what her normal levels would be, no?
Anyone know what Lance’s levels were? Did his post-cancer operation affect those levels in anyway?
CaseyL
Richard 23, allow me to recommend Larry Niven’s novel Achilles’ Choice, which posits exactly what you’re talking about.
The title, BTW, refers to Achilles’ declaration, in the Iliad, that he “chose glory over length of days.”
Sojourner
The testerone was synthetic.
Whoops.
CaseyL
Oh, dear. Oh, damn.
Andrew
Reports of short term gains from testosterone in cyclists.
Richard 23
Synthetic testosterone? Oh, that means it occurs naturally right? ;-)
Uh oh. Oops!
Actually the top of the hour radio newsreader helpfully explained what synthetic meant. My first thought was Bush explaining what dissassembling means (to not tell the truth).
And thanks for the recommendation, CaseyL.
Vlad
“Unlike golfers, who would never cover for another’s cheating and would ostracize anyone who cheated…”
Of course, golf isn’t really a sport.
Jef Poskanzer
My understanding is that Floyd’s testosterone was not high in the anomolous tests. Rather, his testosterone was the same level as usual for him, but his epitestosterone was lower in those tests.
As for the carbon isotope ratio tests, I don’t put nearly as much faith in those as all the supposed experts. There are all sorts of things that can go wrong.
Furthermore, it is very poor scientific practice to have both the A and B samples analyzed by the same lab.
Legally, a single bad isotope ratio result is enough to disqualify him. Science demands more. The way I would approach this mystery scientifically is to do the isotope ratio test on all of Floyd’s samples, and a bunch of samples from his teammates and other riders. Even that wouldn’t be definitive, since poor handling and storage of the samples may have already happened and cannot be reversed. But it would give us more data.