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You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / Is This How It Starts

Is This How It Starts

by John Cole|  March 27, 20079:00 am| 41 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Military, Politics

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I can’t be alone in worrying that this is how the next war is going to start:

Britain hopes that diplomacy will win the release of 15 sailors and marines detained by Iran but is prepared to move to a “different phase” if not, Prime Minister Tony Blair said Tuesday.

Britain and the United States have said the sailors and marines were intercepted Friday just after they completed a search of a civilian vessel in the Iraqi part of the Shatt al-Arab waterway, where the border with Iran has historically been disputed.

“I hope we manage to get them (the Iranian government) to realize they have to release them,” Blair said in an interview with GMTV. “If not, then this will move into a different phase.”

Asked what that meant, Blair said: “Well, we will just have to see, but what they should understand is that we cannot have a situation where our servicemen and women are seized when actually they are in Iraqi waters under a U.N. mandate, patrolling perfectly rightly and in accordance with that mandate, and then effectively captured and taken to Iran.”

Follow this one closely, as the outcome could be terrible. The show of force is already starting.

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Reader Interactions

41Comments

  1. 1.

    jenniebee

    March 27, 2007 at 9:34 am

    Is the entirety of Europe really going to allow itself to be plunged into decades of war by the assassination by a lone radical of the heir to an obsolete monarchy? Hellz yeah!

  2. 2.

    Mr Furious

    March 27, 2007 at 9:36 am

    Gulf. Of. Tonkin.

  3. 3.

    Moll Slanders

    March 27, 2007 at 9:50 am

    Wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!

  4. 4.

    jenniebee

    March 27, 2007 at 10:00 am

    How can you wonder or worry? War with Iran was inevitable from the time that Congress passed the War Resolution act back in 2002. Why is it that only the Dirty Fucking Hippies take these guys at their word and believe that they’ll do exactly what they always said they would:

    AMY GOODMAN: Do you see a replay in what happened in the lead-up to the war with Iraq — the allegations of the weapons of mass destruction, the media leaping onto the bandwagon?

    GEN. WESLEY CLARK: Well, in a way. But, you know, history doesn’t repeat itself exactly twice…

    About ten days after 9/11, I went through the Pentagon and I saw Secretary Rumsfeld and Deputy Secretary Wolfowitz. I went downstairs just to say hello to some of the people on the Joint Staff who used to work for me, and one of the generals called me in. He said, “Sir, you’ve got to come in and talk to me a second…We’ve made the decision we’re going to war with Iraq.” This was on or about the 20th of September…

    So I came back to see him a few weeks later, and by that time we were bombing in Afghanistan. I said, “Are we still going to war with Iraq?” And he said, “Oh, it’s worse than that.” He reached over on his desk. He picked up a piece of paper. And he said, “I just got this down from upstairs” — meaning the Secretary of Defense’s office — “today.” And he said, “This is a memo that describes how we’re going to take out seven countries in five years, starting with Iraq, and then Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and, finishing off, Iran.”

  5. 5.

    Moll Slanders

    March 27, 2007 at 10:06 am

    Why is it that only the Dirty Fucking Hippies take these guys at their word and believe that they’ll do exactly what they always said they would

    I was just thinking I wished I’d laid odds on it, I’d be well… more well of than I am now.

  6. 6.

    Moll Slanders

    March 27, 2007 at 10:13 am

    more well off than I am now

    Somebody stole an f, sorry.

  7. 7.

    Dreggas

    March 27, 2007 at 10:16 am

    Well let me see here, it would be the perfect incident to have the bushie’s unleash unholy hell on the Iranians in the name of “protecting our allies” vis-a-vis Britain.

    Not to mention the wag the dog effect a strike on Iran would have vis-a-vis the atty purge. Of course with this admin’s historical record of Fucking shit up this would only put them even lower (or is it higher) on the American people’s shit list.

  8. 8.

    dan

    March 27, 2007 at 10:18 am

    “Alea iacta est”
    “The die is cast”- Julius Caesar

  9. 9.

    Zifnab

    March 27, 2007 at 10:18 am

    And he said, “Oh, it’s worse than that.” He reached over on his desk. He picked up a piece of paper. And he said, “I just got this down from upstairs”—meaning the Secretary of Defense’s office—“today.” And he said, “This is a memo that describes how we’re going to take out seven countries in five years, starting with Iraq, and then Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and, finishing off, Iran.”

    Wtf! Are they insane?! Take out seven countries in five years? Do they have ANY military history to work from? Other than leveling a whole bunch of buildings and creating extraordinary numbers of refugees, what the hell did they hope to accomplish? I’m surprised someone didn’t suggest they go nuke Moscow and storm Normandy while they were at it. Ye-gods!

  10. 10.

    Jake

    March 27, 2007 at 10:21 am

    If Bush suddenly declares we’ve found the ponies and Iraq is sufficiently democratized, then I’ll start to worry about US involvement with the boy next door. Until then I think this is another case of the RNG being…what’s the word? Provacative. Or big flaming arseholes. Perhaps the British will bomb Iran until someone flings Amalongname’s head on to a rubble pile but I don’t see another ground war.

    Of course, Russia might weigh in and tell everyone to back off…

  11. 11.

    Dreggas

    March 27, 2007 at 10:25 am

    Mr Furious Says:

    Gulf. Of. Tonkin.

    actually it would be the Gulf Of Tonkin and the bombing of Cambodia all in one.

  12. 12.

    Moll Slanders

    March 27, 2007 at 10:26 am

    Wtf! Are they insane?! Take out seven countries in five years? Do they have ANY military history to work from? Other than leveling a whole bunch of buildings and creating extraordinary numbers of refugees, what the hell did they hope to accomplish? I’m surprised someone didn’t suggest they go nuke Moscow and storm Normandy while they were at it. Ye-gods!

    Uhhh, Zifnab, you have heard of PNAC, correct? You can’t tell me this is news to you.

  13. 13.

    Kiva Oraibi

    March 27, 2007 at 10:33 am

    It’s interesting to note the potential parallel between this and the Israel/Lebanon war of last year — one which, by and large, most people agree was lost by Israel. (Especially in the Muslim world.)

  14. 14.

    Perry Como

    March 27, 2007 at 10:38 am

    Take out seven countries in five years? Do they have ANY military history to work from?

    They know there will be ponies. Lots and lots of ponies.

  15. 15.

    danelectro

    March 27, 2007 at 10:39 am

    billmon, how we miss ya.

  16. 16.

    Lee

    March 27, 2007 at 11:31 am

    The Administration like to play ‘there is nothing in the Constitution about…’ game.

    Well you know the Constitution explicitly grants Congress the power to declare war. There is nothing in Author. Of Force about Iran (the Admin wanted it).

    It would be interesting if one of the outcomes of the over-reaching executive we now have is a dramatic reduction in its ability to deploy the military.

  17. 17.

    Kirk Spencer

    March 27, 2007 at 11:41 am

    Lee,

    The current administration has severely pressed (and in some people’s opinions exceeded) the boundaries of its constitutional authority. The long-term result will be a change in those boundaries. What we don’t know is which direction the change will be. In a nutshell, they’ll be moved with the push or they’ll move in reaction (and rebound) to the push.

    Oh, I know people who gladly tell you that “of course” the change will be a constriction on presidential authority. But I know others who’ll be equally happy to say that “of course”, while it’ll back off from where Bush has pushed it, it’ll be further than it was a decade ago. Since both sides tend to have equal records of being right, I find I don’t know which way it’ll move.

    All I know is that the president of 2009 is going to have slightly different rules and assumptions with which to work.

  18. 18.

    Tsulagi

    March 27, 2007 at 12:04 pm

    This is looking great. Nothing like a little extra tension with one of the original three in the Axis of Evil to go with your morning coffee.

    So we’ve got two carrier battle groups in the Gulf now buzzing Iran in the air. We have a third carrier group in the area close enough to conduct air operations over Iran plus it’s carrying a special operations capable Marine Expeditionary Unit. Good thing The Decider had the divine forethought to appoint an admiral as CENTCOM commander.

    For a little extra potential fun, there is a French carrier group in the Gulf. And no doubt the British are now moving extra floating hardware toward the Gulf just in case the Iranians have a Mohammed Gonzales who decides the Geneva Conventions are quaint, obsolete, and don’t apply while they’re seeking the truth through alternative interrogation and Gitmoization Iranian style.

    Don’t stop with that. Add a little depth with Iran having at least two military command structures. One ostensibly under elected civilian leadership and the other answering to the top turbans, sometimes at cross purposes. Each with their own military assets.

    The place is a powder keg and now some gasoline has been spilled on the floor. To top it off, we have a retard standing in the middle holding a lighter armed with PowerPoint. Just fucking great.

  19. 19.

    Pb

    March 27, 2007 at 12:12 pm

    Riddle me this:

    Britain hopes that diplomacy will win the release of 15 sailors and marines detained by Iran but is prepared to move to a “different phase” if not, Prime Minister Tony Blair said Tuesday.

    If this is the standard, then how is this really different from when other nationals are detained? To wit, why haven’t we been at war with practically everyone else already, for years?

  20. 20.

    Zifnab

    March 27, 2007 at 12:43 pm

    Well you know the Constitution explicitly grants Congress the power to declare war. There is nothing in Author. Of Force about Iran (the Admin wanted it).

    It would be interesting if one of the outcomes of the over-reaching executive we now have is a dramatic reduction in its ability to deploy the military.

    Unfortunately, that doesn’t work reactively. Bush will just do stuff, and wait for Congress to try and investigate him. Then he’ll jam the whole thing up in court until ’09 when he can skip from office to freedom.

    The only people that can stop Bush now are the people taking his orders. If he calls an attack out on Iran and there is a massive resignation or a full-scale refusal to follow orders, his invasion plan is dead. Otherwise, it’s full steam ahead.

  21. 21.

    grumpy realist

    March 27, 2007 at 12:49 pm

    You’d think enough people would have read about how Europe got into WWI so as not to want to repeat it in the Middle East.

    I’m keeping an eye on oil futures. When they shoot through the roof then you know something’s gonna happen.

    I also think the China would have something to say about our trying to do a real number on Iran, given all the stuff about oil they’ve signed and all. And China wouldn’t have to do anything–just sit back and refuse to purchase all those loverly US gummit bonds the next time the US government tries to straddle the hole between What We Take In and What We Spend.

  22. 22.

    The Other Steve

    March 27, 2007 at 1:00 pm

    If the US invades Iran, Bush will face impeachment.

    that is, unless Iran takes out an air craft carrier or something like that. Which I don’t think they are stupid enough to do, much less have the capacity.

    and to the conspiracy theorists… If Bush was capable of taking out one of our own air craft carriers, I’m pretty sure he would have planted some WMDs in Iraq.

  23. 23.

    mrmobi

    March 27, 2007 at 1:03 pm

    The only people that can stop Bush now are the people taking his orders. If he calls an attack out on Iran and there is a massive resignation or a full-scale refusal to follow orders, his invasion plan is dead. Otherwise, it’s full steam ahead.

    Exactly, Zif. God, I love Russian Roulette!

    And China wouldn’t have to do anything—just sit back and refuse to purchase all those loverly US gummit bonds the next time the US government tries to straddle the hole between What We Take In and What We Spend.

    Grumpy, we are so fucked!

  24. 24.

    jenniebee

    March 27, 2007 at 1:57 pm

    Bush will just do stuff, and wait for Congress to try and investigate him. Then he’ll jam the whole thing up in court until ‘09 when he can skip from office to freedom.

    I like the way you think that a guy whose signature move is “breathless audacity” and who is absolutely nutty about making sure that nobody finds out what his administration is up to is just going to leave office quietly in ’09. It’s cute.

  25. 25.

    Dreggas

    March 27, 2007 at 2:10 pm

    The Other Steve Says:

    If the US invades Iran, Bush will face impeachment

    me thinks it might be sooner…

    Read this

  26. 26.

    Face

    March 27, 2007 at 2:15 pm

    So what if 15 Brits just disappear? What is that…the loss of about 75 teeth? Mouthwash sales go unaffected, slighly smaller full-scale soccer riots, and it’s more Guiness for the rest of us.

  27. 27.

    Davebo

    March 27, 2007 at 2:28 pm

    Take out seven countries in five years

    I think there’s a sale going on at Pottery Barn right now.

    Take out five countries, get the next two for free.

    I hope Iran is one of the freebies.

  28. 28.

    Davebo

    March 27, 2007 at 2:29 pm

    just sit back and refuse to purchase all those loverly US gummit bonds the next time the US government tries to straddle the hole between What We Take In and What We Spend.

    Or worse, sit back and start dumping all the existing Treasury Bonds they own on the world market.

    It would cost them some equity, but it would crush our economy almost overnight.

    A lot cheaper than a conventional war to be sure.

  29. 29.

    sglover

    March 27, 2007 at 2:37 pm

    I yield to nobody in my distrust of and loathing for the Cheney regime, but I don’t believe this episode is going to be the catalyst for a new war. In fact, I’m cautiously optimistic that the likelihood of such a war is declining: If I read the White House Kremlinology correctly, the parallel government that Cheney installed may be getting slowly defanged.

  30. 30.

    Zifnab

    March 27, 2007 at 3:07 pm

    I like the way you think that a guy whose signature move is “breathless audacity” and who is absolutely nutty about making sure that nobody finds out what his administration is up to is just going to leave office quietly in ‘09. It’s cute.

    Ok, amend that to

    Then he’ll jam the whole thing up in court until ‘09 when he can skip from office to freedom in a shower of shredded documents.

    The point is that he isn’t going to be stopped by Congress, unless Waxman and Webb literally pin him to the Congressional floor.

  31. 31.

    Dreggas

    March 27, 2007 at 3:22 pm

    Zifnab:

    The point is that he isn’t going to be stopped by Congress, unless Waxman and Webb literally pin him to the Congressional floor.

    Perhaps this is why webb had a staffer getting him his gun?

  32. 32.

    Tsulagi

    March 27, 2007 at 3:50 pm

    that is, unless Iran takes out an air craft carrier or something like that. Which I don’t think they are stupid enough to do, much less have the capacity.

    Let’s hope Iran’s self appointed religious leaders are saner than our own, because they do have the capability to sink our carriers and other ships.

    If shit happens and everyone in the Gulf starts furiously pressing their buttons, our ships’ survivability will in large part come down to a couple of fairly new missile defense systems that haven’t been tested in combat. But not to worry, during the Bush admin the effectiveness of weapons systems delivered by defense contractors and determining if they meet contract specs has largely been done on the honor system. If you can’t trust the honor of campaign contributors like Raytheon, who can you trust?

    Yes, our sailors and naval airmen can relax their sphincters in the knowledge that “We will, in fact, be greeted as liberators” Cheney has PowerPoint backing him up. Our Aegis cruisers and destroyers will provide a missile defense umbrella protecting not only our own ships, but also shipping and the entire region.

    Another cake walk with more enormous successes just begging to be set free. Now where’s that retard with his lighter? Let’s light it up.

  33. 33.

    Richard 23

    March 27, 2007 at 7:09 pm

    Iran is seriously spoiling for a rumble. If we don’t respond soon or they don’t back down we’re going to look like a paper tiger. The mad mullahs and Islamofascists don’t respect weakness. We must show them strength.

    Perhaps a Good Friday attack is in the final planning stages. We can only hope.

  34. 34.

    Scruffy McSnufflepuss

    March 27, 2007 at 7:17 pm

    just sit back and refuse to purchase all those loverly US gummit bonds the next time the US government tries to straddle the hole between What We Take In and What We Spend.

    No, see, we just have to trick them into attacking Taiwan. Then, we can repudiate our debt to them. It’s a flawless plan. I know, because Darrell came up with it. And God don’t make no junk.

  35. 35.

    Bob In Pacifica

    March 27, 2007 at 8:05 pm

    I read somewhere that Iran has a whole lot of the latest generation of Russian cruise missiles, as well as high-velocity torpedoes. Those cruise missiles, flying in at six or eight feet above the water, are hard to catch on radar and one solid hit can sink a tanker, or for that matter a military ship. America’s aura of military invincibility has taken a serious hit in Iraq. Imagine everyone switching to Euros if we lose a war to Iran. And America loses that war as long as it doesn’t win.

  36. 36.

    Otto Man

    March 27, 2007 at 8:21 pm

    I was in the UK when this happened, and I was surprised at how the Brits reacted to this with a collective yawn. The murder of the Pakistani cricket coach was the front-page story, and this was relegated to pages 3 or 4 at best.

    They’ve already washed their hands of the war and already faced a hostage crisis in this one already. They’re not getting worked up at all and trying to let diplomacy work.

    If this had been us? The Decider would’ve opened up another well-reasoned round of whupass in Operation Git-R-Done.

  37. 37.

    Pb

    March 27, 2007 at 8:22 pm

    Oh WTF.

    I’m keeping an eye on oil futures. When they shoot through the roof then you know something’s gonna happen.

    Well we’re fucked, then.

    WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The U.S. Navy on Tuesday said it had no information to substantiate a market rumor that Iran had fired at a U.S. naval vessel in the Gulf.

    “Navy has nothing to substantiate that report right now,” a Navy official said. “At this juncture, there is no validity to it.”

    “We have no information at this time that indicates any incident taking place,” said White House National Security Council spokesman Gordon Johndroe.

    NYMEX crude oil futures shot up more than $5 to trade above $68 a barrel on rumors about Iran, traders said.

  38. 38.

    Otto Man

    March 27, 2007 at 8:22 pm

    The mad mullahs and Islamofascists don’t respect weakness. We must show them strength.

    Yeah, that worked so well in Iraq. Good idea.

  39. 39.

    SPIIDERWEB™

    March 27, 2007 at 8:26 pm

    Does the Gulf of Tonkin ring a bell?

    And there are huge similarities.

  40. 40.

    Tsulagi

    March 27, 2007 at 10:38 pm

    I read somewhere that Iran has a whole lot of the latest generation of Russian cruise missiles.

    Yeah, they have the Sunburn, Yakhont (more advanced), and you would think in the past year or two they might have expressed a desire to Russia to have their latest, Klub. Especially since that one can also be launched underwater using standard torpedo tubes in their three Kilo class subs. All three are supersonic and sophisticated at how they get to their target.

    In addition to those Russian bad boys, the Iranians have hundreds of frenchy Exocets. Thanks to the Chinese, they manufacture their own Silkworms and two Chinese knock-off versions of our Harpoon. These are all subsonic, but still nasty. Commercial shipping would be fat easy targets for these.

    On our side for defense, we have SM-2 (long range), ESSM (medium range), and SeaRAM for close in. All three are supersonic at roughly the same speed as the Russian ASCMs. Plus we have electronic countermeasures, decoys, chaff, etc. as last prayer defenses.

    Problem is the attacking missiles have a much, much easier job. They’re essentially looking to hit something the size of a small shopping mall that is standing still relative to their speed. Taking on the Russian ASCMs, our interceptors are trying to hit something in flight virtually the size and speed of a bullet. The Russians add in the problem of their bullet making wild evasive course changes. That’s hell for our targeting systems. Klub adds variable speed to the mix.

    The Iranians could probably be counted on to use Chinese tactics. Like…“Okay, your ship defenses can handle a single ASCM, probably even two or three, but how about 20 or more at the same time.” If a couple got through, those 20 or more ASCMs would be a very small fraction of the cost of an Aegis ship or carrier.

    But not to worry, Cheney’s PowerPoint slides say we’re covered. When has Cheney ever been wrong?

  41. 41.

    skip

    March 29, 2007 at 12:47 pm

    Why ask us? That Shulsky guy is running the operation this time too. The Office of Special Plans lives!

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