I can’t be alone in worrying that this is how the next war is going to start:
Britain hopes that diplomacy will win the release of 15 sailors and marines detained by Iran but is prepared to move to a “different phase” if not, Prime Minister Tony Blair said Tuesday.
Britain and the United States have said the sailors and marines were intercepted Friday just after they completed a search of a civilian vessel in the Iraqi part of the Shatt al-Arab waterway, where the border with Iran has historically been disputed.
“I hope we manage to get them (the Iranian government) to realize they have to release them,” Blair said in an interview with GMTV. “If not, then this will move into a different phase.”
Asked what that meant, Blair said: “Well, we will just have to see, but what they should understand is that we cannot have a situation where our servicemen and women are seized when actually they are in Iraqi waters under a U.N. mandate, patrolling perfectly rightly and in accordance with that mandate, and then effectively captured and taken to Iran.”
Follow this one closely, as the outcome could be terrible. The show of force is already starting.
jenniebee
Is the entirety of Europe really going to allow itself to be plunged into decades of war by the assassination by a lone radical of the heir to an obsolete monarchy? Hellz yeah!
Mr Furious
Gulf. Of. Tonkin.
Moll Slanders
Wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!
jenniebee
How can you wonder or worry? War with Iran was inevitable from the time that Congress passed the War Resolution act back in 2002. Why is it that only the Dirty Fucking Hippies take these guys at their word and believe that they’ll do exactly what they always said they would:
Moll Slanders
I was just thinking I wished I’d laid odds on it, I’d be well… more well of than I am now.
Moll Slanders
Somebody stole an f, sorry.
Dreggas
Well let me see here, it would be the perfect incident to have the bushie’s unleash unholy hell on the Iranians in the name of “protecting our allies” vis-a-vis Britain.
Not to mention the wag the dog effect a strike on Iran would have vis-a-vis the atty purge. Of course with this admin’s historical record of Fucking shit up this would only put them even lower (or is it higher) on the American people’s shit list.
dan
“Alea iacta est”
“The die is cast”- Julius Caesar
Zifnab
Wtf! Are they insane?! Take out seven countries in five years? Do they have ANY military history to work from? Other than leveling a whole bunch of buildings and creating extraordinary numbers of refugees, what the hell did they hope to accomplish? I’m surprised someone didn’t suggest they go nuke Moscow and storm Normandy while they were at it. Ye-gods!
Jake
If Bush suddenly declares we’ve found the ponies and Iraq is sufficiently democratized, then I’ll start to worry about US involvement with the boy next door. Until then I think this is another case of the RNG being…what’s the word? Provacative. Or big flaming arseholes. Perhaps the British will bomb Iran until someone flings Amalongname’s head on to a rubble pile but I don’t see another ground war.
Of course, Russia might weigh in and tell everyone to back off…
Dreggas
actually it would be the Gulf Of Tonkin and the bombing of Cambodia all in one.
Moll Slanders
Uhhh, Zifnab, you have heard of PNAC, correct? You can’t tell me this is news to you.
Kiva Oraibi
It’s interesting to note the potential parallel between this and the Israel/Lebanon war of last year — one which, by and large, most people agree was lost by Israel. (Especially in the Muslim world.)
Perry Como
They know there will be ponies. Lots and lots of ponies.
danelectro
billmon, how we miss ya.
Lee
The Administration like to play ‘there is nothing in the Constitution about…’ game.
Well you know the Constitution explicitly grants Congress the power to declare war. There is nothing in Author. Of Force about Iran (the Admin wanted it).
It would be interesting if one of the outcomes of the over-reaching executive we now have is a dramatic reduction in its ability to deploy the military.
Kirk Spencer
Lee,
The current administration has severely pressed (and in some people’s opinions exceeded) the boundaries of its constitutional authority. The long-term result will be a change in those boundaries. What we don’t know is which direction the change will be. In a nutshell, they’ll be moved with the push or they’ll move in reaction (and rebound) to the push.
Oh, I know people who gladly tell you that “of course” the change will be a constriction on presidential authority. But I know others who’ll be equally happy to say that “of course”, while it’ll back off from where Bush has pushed it, it’ll be further than it was a decade ago. Since both sides tend to have equal records of being right, I find I don’t know which way it’ll move.
All I know is that the president of 2009 is going to have slightly different rules and assumptions with which to work.
Tsulagi
This is looking great. Nothing like a little extra tension with one of the original three in the Axis of Evil to go with your morning coffee.
So we’ve got two carrier battle groups in the Gulf now buzzing Iran in the air. We have a third carrier group in the area close enough to conduct air operations over Iran plus it’s carrying a special operations capable Marine Expeditionary Unit. Good thing The Decider had the divine forethought to appoint an admiral as CENTCOM commander.
For a little extra potential fun, there is a French carrier group in the Gulf. And no doubt the British are now moving extra floating hardware toward the Gulf just in case the Iranians have a Mohammed Gonzales who decides the Geneva Conventions are quaint, obsolete, and don’t apply while they’re seeking the truth through alternative interrogation and Gitmoization Iranian style.
Don’t stop with that. Add a little depth with Iran having at least two military command structures. One ostensibly under elected civilian leadership and the other answering to the top turbans, sometimes at cross purposes. Each with their own military assets.
The place is a powder keg and now some gasoline has been spilled on the floor. To top it off, we have a retard standing in the middle holding a lighter armed with PowerPoint. Just fucking great.
Pb
Riddle me this:
If this is the standard, then how is this really different from when other nationals are detained? To wit, why haven’t we been at war with practically everyone else already, for years?
Zifnab
Unfortunately, that doesn’t work reactively. Bush will just do stuff, and wait for Congress to try and investigate him. Then he’ll jam the whole thing up in court until ’09 when he can skip from office to freedom.
The only people that can stop Bush now are the people taking his orders. If he calls an attack out on Iran and there is a massive resignation or a full-scale refusal to follow orders, his invasion plan is dead. Otherwise, it’s full steam ahead.
grumpy realist
You’d think enough people would have read about how Europe got into WWI so as not to want to repeat it in the Middle East.
I’m keeping an eye on oil futures. When they shoot through the roof then you know something’s gonna happen.
I also think the China would have something to say about our trying to do a real number on Iran, given all the stuff about oil they’ve signed and all. And China wouldn’t have to do anything–just sit back and refuse to purchase all those loverly US gummit bonds the next time the US government tries to straddle the hole between What We Take In and What We Spend.
The Other Steve
If the US invades Iran, Bush will face impeachment.
that is, unless Iran takes out an air craft carrier or something like that. Which I don’t think they are stupid enough to do, much less have the capacity.
and to the conspiracy theorists… If Bush was capable of taking out one of our own air craft carriers, I’m pretty sure he would have planted some WMDs in Iraq.
mrmobi
Exactly, Zif. God, I love Russian Roulette!
Grumpy, we are so fucked!
jenniebee
I like the way you think that a guy whose signature move is “breathless audacity” and who is absolutely nutty about making sure that nobody finds out what his administration is up to is just going to leave office quietly in ’09. It’s cute.
Dreggas
me thinks it might be sooner…
Read this
Face
So what if 15 Brits just disappear? What is that…the loss of about 75 teeth? Mouthwash sales go unaffected, slighly smaller full-scale soccer riots, and it’s more Guiness for the rest of us.
Davebo
I think there’s a sale going on at Pottery Barn right now.
Take out five countries, get the next two for free.
I hope Iran is one of the freebies.
Davebo
Or worse, sit back and start dumping all the existing Treasury Bonds they own on the world market.
It would cost them some equity, but it would crush our economy almost overnight.
A lot cheaper than a conventional war to be sure.
sglover
I yield to nobody in my distrust of and loathing for the Cheney regime, but I don’t believe this episode is going to be the catalyst for a new war. In fact, I’m cautiously optimistic that the likelihood of such a war is declining: If I read the White House Kremlinology correctly, the parallel government that Cheney installed may be getting slowly defanged.
Zifnab
Ok, amend that to
The point is that he isn’t going to be stopped by Congress, unless Waxman and Webb literally pin him to the Congressional floor.
Dreggas
Perhaps this is why webb had a staffer getting him his gun?
Tsulagi
Let’s hope Iran’s self appointed religious leaders are saner than our own, because they do have the capability to sink our carriers and other ships.
If shit happens and everyone in the Gulf starts furiously pressing their buttons, our ships’ survivability will in large part come down to a couple of fairly new missile defense systems that haven’t been tested in combat. But not to worry, during the Bush admin the effectiveness of weapons systems delivered by defense contractors and determining if they meet contract specs has largely been done on the honor system. If you can’t trust the honor of campaign contributors like Raytheon, who can you trust?
Yes, our sailors and naval airmen can relax their sphincters in the knowledge that “We will, in fact, be greeted as liberators” Cheney has PowerPoint backing him up. Our Aegis cruisers and destroyers will provide a missile defense umbrella protecting not only our own ships, but also shipping and the entire region.
Another cake walk with more enormous successes just begging to be set free. Now where’s that retard with his lighter? Let’s light it up.
Richard 23
Iran is seriously spoiling for a rumble. If we don’t respond soon or they don’t back down we’re going to look like a paper tiger. The mad mullahs and Islamofascists don’t respect weakness. We must show them strength.
Perhaps a Good Friday attack is in the final planning stages. We can only hope.
Scruffy McSnufflepuss
No, see, we just have to trick them into attacking Taiwan. Then, we can repudiate our debt to them. It’s a flawless plan. I know, because Darrell came up with it. And God don’t make no junk.
Bob In Pacifica
I read somewhere that Iran has a whole lot of the latest generation of Russian cruise missiles, as well as high-velocity torpedoes. Those cruise missiles, flying in at six or eight feet above the water, are hard to catch on radar and one solid hit can sink a tanker, or for that matter a military ship. America’s aura of military invincibility has taken a serious hit in Iraq. Imagine everyone switching to Euros if we lose a war to Iran. And America loses that war as long as it doesn’t win.
Otto Man
I was in the UK when this happened, and I was surprised at how the Brits reacted to this with a collective yawn. The murder of the Pakistani cricket coach was the front-page story, and this was relegated to pages 3 or 4 at best.
They’ve already washed their hands of the war and already faced a hostage crisis in this one already. They’re not getting worked up at all and trying to let diplomacy work.
If this had been us? The Decider would’ve opened up another well-reasoned round of whupass in Operation Git-R-Done.
Pb
Oh WTF.
Well we’re fucked, then.
Otto Man
Yeah, that worked so well in Iraq. Good idea.
SPIIDERWEB™
Does the Gulf of Tonkin ring a bell?
And there are huge similarities.
Tsulagi
Yeah, they have the Sunburn, Yakhont (more advanced), and you would think in the past year or two they might have expressed a desire to Russia to have their latest, Klub. Especially since that one can also be launched underwater using standard torpedo tubes in their three Kilo class subs. All three are supersonic and sophisticated at how they get to their target.
In addition to those Russian bad boys, the Iranians have hundreds of frenchy Exocets. Thanks to the Chinese, they manufacture their own Silkworms and two Chinese knock-off versions of our Harpoon. These are all subsonic, but still nasty. Commercial shipping would be fat easy targets for these.
On our side for defense, we have SM-2 (long range), ESSM (medium range), and SeaRAM for close in. All three are supersonic at roughly the same speed as the Russian ASCMs. Plus we have electronic countermeasures, decoys, chaff, etc. as last prayer defenses.
Problem is the attacking missiles have a much, much easier job. They’re essentially looking to hit something the size of a small shopping mall that is standing still relative to their speed. Taking on the Russian ASCMs, our interceptors are trying to hit something in flight virtually the size and speed of a bullet. The Russians add in the problem of their bullet making wild evasive course changes. That’s hell for our targeting systems. Klub adds variable speed to the mix.
The Iranians could probably be counted on to use Chinese tactics. Like…“Okay, your ship defenses can handle a single ASCM, probably even two or three, but how about 20 or more at the same time.” If a couple got through, those 20 or more ASCMs would be a very small fraction of the cost of an Aegis ship or carrier.
But not to worry, Cheney’s PowerPoint slides say we’re covered. When has Cheney ever been wrong?
skip
Why ask us? That Shulsky guy is running the operation this time too. The Office of Special Plans lives!