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You are here: Home / Science & Technology / Global Warming Proceeding As Expected

Global Warming Proceeding As Expected

by Tim F|  June 18, 20075:01 pm| 52 Comments

This post is in: Science & Technology

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Like every model since, the crude early models of greenhouse-driven climate change, with pixels the size of Kansas, predicted that warming would begin at the poles. This is because greenhouse warming only contributes a fraction of the total heat budget of temperate regions, which absorb a significant amount of heat by absorbing and re-emitting the sun’s light directly. Ice and snow at the polar regions reflect most incoming sunlight while absorbing almost none, leaving only greenhouse gases to catch solar heat before it reflects back into space. If the greenhouse contribution goes up, the polar heat budget (greenhouse alone) will go up significantly more than everywhere else (greenhouse + direct sunlight).

Similarly, climate models predict that greenhouse warming will make the nighttime less cold faster than it makes the daytime warmer. During the day heat comes both from the sun and from heat absorbed by the atmosphere, at night only the atmosphere contributes. This explains why humidity keeps the air warmer at night (water vapor has a high heat capacity and is a very effective greenhouse gas), and why cloudy nights are warmer (clouds act as an effective greenhouse layer).

These predictions make a convenient way to compare greenhouse-based models against less well supported theories based on the sun getting warmer. If solar input mattered more than CO2 heat retention then regions which absorb the most solar heat, for example the tropics, should warm up much the fastest. High-albedo polar regions, which send most solar illumation back into space, should warm up much more slowly.

Sadly, each week brings another story casting doubt on the sun-based climate “skeptics.”

Ice in north-east Greenland is melting an average of 14.6 days earlier than in the mid-1990s, bringing forward the date plants flower and birds lay eggs.

The team warned that the observed changes could disrupt the region’s ecosystems and food chain, affecting the long-term survival of some species.

[…] “We were particularly surprised to see the trends were so strong when considering that the entire summer is very short in the High Arctic – just three or four months from snowmelt to freeze-up,” said co-author Toke Hoye, from the University of Aarhus.

Needless to say these effects in the High Arctic dwarf the climate changes that we have seen anywhere else on Earth. But don’t worry too much about sunspot climate doubters. Like the creationists who inspire them, they’re a conclusion in search of evidence. As far as the money which supports such denial is concerned, one argument which puts off the inevitable reckoning is as good as any other.

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Reader Interactions

52Comments

  1. 1.

    John Cole

    June 18, 2007 at 5:03 pm

    But. But. It snowed when Al Gore screened his movie.

  2. 2.

    ThymeZone

    June 18, 2007 at 5:06 pm

    It snowed when Al Gore screened his movie.

    Meh. The government controls the weather, everybody knows that.

    Of course they’d make it snow to discredit Al “I invented the internet” Gore.

  3. 3.

    Jake

    June 18, 2007 at 5:19 pm

    But don’t worry too much about sunspot climate doubters. Like the creationists who inspire them, they’re a conclusion in search of evidence.

    Or

    They hate the idea of a slow breakdown of systems that gradually screws everyone nine ways from Sunday because that conflicts with the Revelations/Rapture/Apocalypse scenario they’re awaiting.

    The end of the world won’t be any fun if they aren’t up on a cloud munching Cheetos while the sinners fry and the GCC models don’t make any mention of Cheetos.

  4. 4.

    mark

    June 18, 2007 at 5:21 pm

    I like the attitude of that guy Bush appointed to run NASA, Michael Griffin. He accepts that the planet is warming due to human activities, but thinks it arrogant to assume that change is bad. The same thing can be said about arson. Sure, it’s bad for some people, but think of the job creation! And why should government be in the business of picking winners and losers?

  5. 5.

    chopper

    June 18, 2007 at 5:24 pm

    i’m currently re-reading The Weather Makers, and every page makes me more sad than the last.

    we’re truly screwed. not because of some inexorable process we can’t do anything about, but because of our own lack of giving a shit about the outcome.

  6. 6.

    George B.

    June 18, 2007 at 5:30 pm

    We have to stay the course. The lesson of 9/11 is, it changed everything, and you have to stay the course to victory.

  7. 7.

    Zifnab

    June 18, 2007 at 5:33 pm

    we’re truly screwed. not because of some inexorable process we can’t do anything about, but because of our own lack of giving a shit about the outcome.

    I think you are confusing one inexorable process we can’t do anything about (see: carbon emissions) with another inexorable process we can’t do anything about (see: mankind’s blissful stupidity).

    My solution to this? It is and always has been to make old people live forever. Let’s face it. Old people run our country. And old people are on their way out. Ten, twenty years tops and it’s “Hello Mr. Reaper”. So the last few years of their lives are spent in carefree abandon, just trying to rack in enough money/power/fame/infamy to get a footnote in the history books or a really tall statue with their names on it. Global Warming ain’t no thang when you’re on death’s door.

    But if we make old people live forever, they’ll have to see the consequences of their actions. It’s like rubbing a dog’s nose in its own poo. Old people need to learn that actions have consequences.

  8. 8.

    Chad N. Freude

    June 18, 2007 at 5:40 pm

    They hate the idea of a slow breakdown of systems that gradually screws everyone nine ways from Sunday because that conflicts with the Revelations/Rapture/Apocalypse scenario they’re awaiting.

    I’m not so sure about that. The surprisingly fast warming of the polar regions is kind of like those ominous rapidly gathering clouds in religio-disaster movies and could be the beginning of the Applepoppaclips. Here’s a conspiracy theory for you: the warming doubters are doing everything they can to discourage and impede doing anything to fix global warming because they know it’s part of the apocalyptiprocess.

  9. 9.

    Bubblegum Tate

    June 18, 2007 at 5:56 pm

    But. But. It snowed when Al Gore screened his movie.

    Exactly. This is just a craven attempt by Tim to put a scientific sheen on his rabid anti-Greenland agenda.

    Also, I had to wear a sweatshirt last night. A sweatshirt! In the middle of June! If that doesn’t disprove this silly scientific consensus about global warming, then nothing will.

  10. 10.

    Dreggas

    June 18, 2007 at 6:17 pm

    I have to, at this point, try and find some happiness in my cynicism and try to look on the bright side…that being said, if the sea level rises in my area as it is projected to do, All the bastards that voted for this administration will drown (in my area specifically) and I’ll have beach front property.

  11. 11.

    John Cole

    June 18, 2007 at 6:53 pm

    Don’t worry- global warming is not happening, just some thermometers too close to ac exhaust.

    Seriously, Newsbusters is on the case.

  12. 12.

    conumbdrum

    June 18, 2007 at 6:59 pm

    “We were particularly surprised to see the trends were so strong when considering that the entire summer is very short in the High Arctic – just three or four months from snowmelt to freeze-up,” said co-author Toke Hoye, from the University of Aarhus.

    Oh, riiiight… like I’m gonna trust some so-called climate “expert” (i.e. smelly hippie) named “Toke Hoye.” Y’know, the timing of the seasons always seems off when you’re gobbling LSD tabs like they were Skittles.

  13. 13.

    Chad N. Freude

    June 18, 2007 at 7:10 pm

    Don’t worry- global warming is not happening, just some thermometers too close to ac exhaust.

    Thanks, John. That Newsbusters item is certainly a much more plausible explanation for the melting of the polar ice than constantly increasing trapped heat.

  14. 14.

    conumbdrum

    June 18, 2007 at 7:20 pm

    Don’t worry- global warming is not happening, just some thermometers too close to ac exhaust.

    Seriously, Newsbusters is on the case.

    Jebus Fornicating Christ… this has to be the most pathetic write-off of global warming ever. Wonder how fat a paycheck this dork got from Big Oil for his big brain flash.

  15. 15.

    srv

    June 18, 2007 at 7:25 pm

    Anyone got the red/blue map sorted by altitude? I know the Republicans lose Florida, but what will the Dems lose?

  16. 16.

    Rome Again

    June 18, 2007 at 7:42 pm

    Oh stop it. All you have to do is pray to Jesus to fly down out of the sky and swoop you up into space and everything will be okay. You gotta keep faith though, because the longer you wait and the more you doubt, the longer he’ll take to come and get you and you might have to wait right up until the moment the heat from sun gets so intense it starts to put boils on your skin. That’s why I started early, me and my children are first in line ;)

    /looney religious whacko!

  17. 17.

    Rome Again

    June 18, 2007 at 7:43 pm

    Anyone got the red/blue map sorted by altitude? I know the Republicans lose Florida, but what will the Dems lose?

    California?

  18. 18.

    jake

    June 18, 2007 at 8:13 pm

    I know the Republicans lose Florida, but what will the Dems lose?

    Lots of Maryland, Massachusetts, NYC. On the upside for the Neo-cons, they’ll finally succeed in drowning the government.

  19. 19.

    Pb

    June 18, 2007 at 8:20 pm

    Don’t worry- global warming is not happening, just some thermometers too close to ac exhaust.

    Seriously, Newsbusters is on the case.

    It must feel so exciting and groundbreaking to be a regular at Newsbusters these days–it’s like they’re always discovering something new for the very first time. I’ll write myself a note right now to sign up there immediately if I ever have a lobotomy.

  20. 20.

    jake

    June 18, 2007 at 9:10 pm

    It must feel so exciting and groundbreaking to be a regular at Newsbusters these days—it’s like they’re always discovering something new for the very first time.

    Hey now, it isn’t easy discrediting the smellymoonbathippyfascists. These things take time and research. But, I guess you want the Newsbusters gang to just make things up as they go along, just like the librul media.

    Anyway, that article you link can be easily explained by groups of tree huggers smoking their bongs too close to thermometers located in remote areas.

  21. 21.

    Punchy

    June 19, 2007 at 8:20 am

    Ice is so friggin’ overrated, Tim. So what if it melts? That just means more ocean for me to swim in…in Indiana.

  22. 22.

    scott

    June 19, 2007 at 9:25 am

    I think this was on the front page on the UK’s Independent newspaper. http://environment.independent.co.uk/climate_change/article2675747.ece

    Not surprisingly, the American media won’t even touch this stuff. They are too busy complaining about bloggers, and working on their tans.

  23. 23.

    Li

    June 19, 2007 at 10:46 am

    Actually, as far as evidence for non-C02 based warming goes, the warming that the outer planets in the solar system are experiencing is pretty solid. Further, given that Pluto has warmed a good bit, it seems unlikely that solar radiation is the culprit; indeed, any upward trend in this regard would be easy to measure. More likely, it is some form of electromagnetic induction, which would neatly explain the as-yet mysterious increase in sea temperatures, far above the increases in air temperatures; the oceans are being heated from below. However, if their is some celestial contribution to warming, this isn’t a get-out-of-jail-free card, in any way; this is actually far worse, and could result in the Greenland shelf melting at a very fast pace (also being observed, and not explained). In other words, it could be ten years to Drowning-day, rather than a hundred years.

    This is my basic message on the issue; we don’t know what is going on, and even if it is 100% CO2, our leaders lack the will to change. In other words, we need to prepare for this, and stop arguing about causes, because if we don’t billions will die of exposure and starvation. We need to build inland cities, greenhouses, and food stores, and we need to do it -NOW-. Wasting time pointing fingers much longer will only lead to unimaginable misery.

  24. 24.

    ThymeZone

    June 19, 2007 at 11:29 am

    Can’t you guys see that this whole Global Warming “crisis” is the liberals’ version of “Defense of Marriage?”

    It’s a manipulative scam, designed to scare you away from voting your real interests. Just like DOM is. Just like Right to Life/Pro Choice is.

    The weather guy is saying 115f this Friday in my town. Am I panicking? NO! It’s always that temperature in late June here. And July. And August. AND WE FUCKING LOVE IT AND THE REST OF YOU CANLEARN TO LOVE IT TOO GODDAM IT.

  25. 25.

    Punchy

    June 19, 2007 at 11:53 am

    From the biochemist here, an interesting equation y’all should know:

    CO2 + H20 –> H+ + HCO3-

    Yes, CO2 will acidify the oceans. Kiss those coral reefs goodbye. And osmolarity is a bitch. Not sure how many species will be able to survive the hypertonicity of The New Ocean.

    But at least fags cant marry. Cuz that’s what’s important.

  26. 26.

    Andrew

    June 19, 2007 at 12:03 pm

    But if we make old people live forever, they’ll have to see the consequences of their actions. It’s like rubbing a dog’s nose in its own poo. Old people need to learn that actions have consequences.

    Solution:
    Soylent Green at age 55.

  27. 27.

    Rome Again

    June 19, 2007 at 12:11 pm

    But at least fags cant marry. Cuz that’s what’s important.

    Stop the world, I want to get off!

  28. 28.

    Rome Again

    June 19, 2007 at 12:13 pm

    Solution:
    Soylent Green at age 55.

    NO!

  29. 29.

    Third Eye Open

    June 19, 2007 at 12:32 pm

    Personally, I am looking foward to our new underground habitat. I will finally get to use my mole-man claws for something other than scratching my ass.

  30. 30.

    Tim F.

    June 19, 2007 at 12:34 pm

    Yes, CO2 will acidify the oceans. Kiss those coral reefs goodbye. And osmolarity is a bitch. Not sure how many species will be able to survive the hypertonicity of The New Ocean.

    Corals bring in tourist dollars but they don’t transport carbon to the deep sea like coccolithophores. For a fun little positive feedback loop, watch what happens when calcite-mineralizing microalgae don’t reach the seafloor anymore anymore.

    – from the oceanographer, biochemist, field ecologist and cell biologist here. Yup, it’s been an odd career.

  31. 31.

    Tim F.

    June 19, 2007 at 12:38 pm

    More likely, it is some form of electromagnetic induction

    Did you just make that up? For everybody else’s entertainment please sketch out how “electromagnetic induction” can heat up both Earth and Pluto while skipping most of the planets in between. A physically sound definition of “electromagnetic induction” would be a good place to start.

  32. 32.

    Andrew

    June 19, 2007 at 12:39 pm

    NO!

    Okay, then 50.

  33. 33.

    Rome Again

    June 19, 2007 at 12:49 pm

    Okay, then 50.

    What is this, Logan’s Run?

  34. 34.

    Chad N. Freude

    June 19, 2007 at 1:11 pm

    Soylent Green at age 55

    What is this, Logan’s Run?

    Run Soylent, Run Deep.

  35. 35.

    ThymeZone

    June 19, 2007 at 1:14 pm

    Run Soylent, Run Deep.

    Groan.

  36. 36.

    Rome Again

    June 19, 2007 at 1:22 pm

    Groan.

    A silent groan for soylent green? How fitting.

  37. 37.

    ThymeZone

    June 19, 2007 at 1:32 pm

    A silent groan for soylent green?

    Well, you know. It’s people.

    Which, you know, never seemed to me to be all that horrible an idea. Who’s to say a nice “Thirty Minute Soylent Meals with Rachel Ray” wouldn’t be a good show?

    See what I’m sayin’?

  38. 38.

    Rome Again

    June 19, 2007 at 1:34 pm

    Well, you know. It’s people.

    Which, you know, never seemed to me to be all that horrible an idea. Who’s to say a nice “Thirty Minute Soylent Meals with Rachel Ray” wouldn’t be a good show?

    See what I’m sayin’?

    Eat me! ;)

  39. 39.

    ThymeZone

    June 19, 2007 at 1:34 pm

    Let me say, I have never been totally opposed to eating people. I was against it before I was for it, though.

    Now I am all for it.

  40. 40.

    Chad N. Freude

    June 19, 2007 at 1:50 pm

    Groan.

    The nicest compliment I’ve ever been paid on this site. Thanks, TZ.

    Let me say, I have never been totally opposed to eating people.

    From the Wikipedia entry for “Flanders and Swann” (60’s musical review team):

    “The Reluctant Cannibal” — an argument between father and son, disputing the topic of cannibalism (Son: “Eating people is wrong”, Father: “Must have been someone he ate” — “he used to be a regular anthropophaguy”).

  41. 41.

    Rome Again

    June 19, 2007 at 2:19 pm

    Let me say, I have never been totally opposed to eating people. I was against it before I was for it, though.

    Now I am all for it.

    Oh? Then, dinner is at 6, don’t be late! LMAO – (j/k)

  42. 42.

    Chad N. Freude

    June 19, 2007 at 2:22 pm

    “Donner, party of 20. Your table’s ready.”

    — Attributed to Robin Williams.

  43. 43.

    Andrew

    June 19, 2007 at 2:57 pm

    Which, you know, never seemed to me to be all that horrible an idea. Who’s to say a nice “Thirty Minute Soylent Meals with Rachel Ray” wouldn’t be a good show?

    I would think that you’d have to cook Rachel Ray for at least 45 minutes to an hour to get the right kind of succulent fat drippings.

  44. 44.

    ThymeZone

    June 19, 2007 at 3:02 pm

    Eat me!

    Same thing this guy in the next car over said to me this morning when I accidentally cut in front of him at the Soylent-In-The-Box Drive Thru.

  45. 45.

    Rome Again

    June 19, 2007 at 3:23 pm

    Same thing this guy in the next car over said to me this morning when I accidentally purposefully cut in front of him at the Soylent-In-The-Box Drive Thru.

    You just couldn’t wait for that yummy stuff, could you TZ?

  46. 46.

    Li

    June 19, 2007 at 4:16 pm

    Tim F,
    Actually, contrary to your brash assumption, the warming is affecting the rocky planets most, including Mars and a number of the moons of Jupiter. Given that they (at least in theory) have spinning balls of charged metal at their cores, the mechanics of how the massive clouds of charged ions that billow around planets on a daily basis might transfer energy to these enormous dynamos shouldn’t be so mysterious. Indeed, there are a number of moons of Jupiter that, due to their small size, should be cold and dead, but are not; the theory is that there is induction occurring from Jupiter, though the source of the energy is difficult to pin down without a large number of ion sensors in the area, equipment which we unfortunately don’t have up there. As for the source of the net gain in energy? Well, it could be the Sun, or it could be the unusual cosmic rays and particle clouds from the galactic core we have been experiencing for the last few years, or it could be the Flying Spaghetti Monster; without data, I can’t say. But I can say that other planets besides ours are warming up, and that data is difficult to explain with a simplistic ‘CO2 only’ theory. If you still don’t believe me, the data on the climate chaos that Mars has been experiencing the last decade is easy enough to look up: Google: Themis.

  47. 47.

    Li

    June 19, 2007 at 4:52 pm

    affect=effect I hate words that sound the same, are virtually spelled the same, and mean different things. They are the lingual equivalent of laying land mines in the playground; senseless, messy, and discouraging to children.

  48. 48.

    Dennis

    June 20, 2007 at 9:51 am

    Great site! I get more good information on climate than at the ‘Hard core Climate Science Sites’. The bit on why the artic heats faster was great – simple and clear(and many of the commets are rather fun, too.)
    As for why the moons of Jupter are warm is not due electro-magnetic induction but simple tidal (i.e. gravity) heating of the interiors (Jupter is very massive and the moons are very close which cause the moons to flex -ie heat by friction) and it is perfectly understood and modeled – sorry, Li, keep trying.

  49. 49.

    Tim F.

    June 20, 2007 at 9:57 am

    Li, Mars does not have a spinnic ferric core. FYI.

  50. 50.

    Li

    June 21, 2007 at 10:17 am

    Tim, if that is so, then why does Mars have a magnetic field around it (weaker than Earth, yes, but still there)? Why does it have active volcanism? If it were a solid chunk of granite it would have neither of these phenomena present. I’ve read extensively of the gravitational heating hypothesis, and it is a prevalent theory, but I am not yet convinced that the friction caused by gravitational attraction can account for the large amounts of energy that are observed in Jupiter’s moons, particularly since any gravitational friction would be concentrated on the surface, where there is less compaction and thus more chance for movement. Some here on this board seem to have a problem with one of the basic principles of science; that being, that alternate hypothesis should be embraced until such a time as one or the other is conclusively proven. The gravitational hypothesis, in particular, has virtually no evidence for it, and the energy input to output doesn’t add up. The electric universe hypothesis, though considered fringe ten years ago, happens to explain a lot of weird stuff (such as the apparent highly charged state of that comet we shot with a copper mass driver a few years back) that is not explained by any other model, much like other models that have proved themselves before. It’s called science; sometimes, theories compete, and sometimes, the authorities are wrong.

  51. 51.

    Li

    June 21, 2007 at 10:20 am

    http://www.windows.ucar.edu/tour/link=/kids_space/marscore.html&edu=high

    By the way, Tim, how do you know it doesn’t have a spinning core? Even the kids sites realize that hypothesizing without evidence is the act of an idiot.

  52. 52.

    Shai

    September 13, 2007 at 7:17 am

    May I please comment on the Global Warming?

    I am absolutely, 100% convinced that Li is on the right track by relating our current “global warming crisis” to the process of electric induction as caused by solar activity.

    While the sun’s “core” temperature [never as hot as it’s atmospheric temperature!] remains constant, it’s electro-magnetic activiy over the last two decades has been, erratic, and at times super-charged.
    Not only that but the “climates” of Mars, Jupiter and even Pluto have been affected recently..we are seeing significant polar melts on Mars, rivaling, even exceeding in scale and melt rate, anything we’re seeing on earth.

    How to explain that? “Cosmic Coincidence”? Greenhouse gasses escaping into the heavens and through the ether to Mars and Saturn? Even the most pessimistic computer modelling as done by the big studies cannot account for or explain the rate of polar melt we’re seeing..particularly in Greenland and Alaska..where a giant sea-ice lake has just appeared in the middle of the once hard-packed tundra.
    This speaks of erosion of the ice from the bottom up, not heating from the top down as a result of higher surface temperature. Indeed, if that w ere the case we’d see more erosion at the edges of the ice shelf, not in the middle.

    Now you may not want to consider the facts or the implications but that won’t exempt you from living with the consequences..among which will be the mass migration and extinction of species, as well as the violence that will ensue as survivors fight for resources…like food and arable land to grow it.

    You think paying a “carbon tax” will help? That is just big gov’t wanting to raise revenue by taxing you into submission…a penalty for participating in a ‘globalized [consumer-based] economy’…a feel good measure that enables folks to believe that any of what is about to happen can be prevented or at least delayed if only we [middle-class and poor citizens behave and pay more taxes, use less energy..buy fewer things…yada yada.
    My guess is that once everyone wakes up to the real threat and how severe it is, we’d all stop going to work at Mikkie D’s and start making plans to eat the rich…but I digress…

    Anyway… no amount of taxation will affect the plasma sheath or the electromagnetics generated within it by our Sun as it goes through this cycle of inversion..[pole switching and electro-polar shift] which is at the same time creating a huge temperature rise in our own Iron-Nickel core. Global Warming is Not a Theory it is a Fact. And Electrical induction is not a theory..induction stoves and ovens are to be found in fancy restuarant kitchens all over Europe and in the good old USA. So think of the Sun as a powerful electro-magnet acting upon the the molten cores of every planet in the solar system through induction.
    And as Li rightly suggests..the melt is being caused by super-heated columns of water rising from below.

    Need I mention that the overhwelming majority of volcanoes are found under the sea? Need I mention that there has been an increase in the rate and severity of earthquakes all along the Pacific Rim, aka the Ring of Fire..that each volcanic eruption produces about as much Co2/Greenhouse gas in one day as China does in 3 to 6 months? Or that earthquakes are not caused by Co2?

    Blaming global warming/climate change on greenhouse gas accumulation in the atmosphere is a lot like blaming smoke for the fire…

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