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You are here: Home / Science & Technology / No, The Ocean Did Not Cool Between 2003 And 2005

No, The Ocean Did Not Cool Between 2003 And 2005

by Tim F|  June 27, 20079:24 am| 20 Comments

This post is in: Science & Technology

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Trouble for greenhouse skeptics in the latest Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences:

Observations show both a pronounced increase in ocean heat content (OHC) over the second half of the 20th century and substantial OHC variability on interannual-to-decadal time scales. Although climate models are able to simulate overall changes in OHC, they are generally thought to underestimate the amplitude of OHC variability. Using simulations of 20th century climate performed with 13 numerical models, we demonstrate that the apparent discrepancy between modeled and observed variability is largely explained by accounting for changes in observational coverage and instrumentation and by including the effects of volcanic eruptions. Our work does not support the recent claim that the 0- to 700-m layer of the global ocean experienced a substantial OHC decrease over the 2003 to 2005 time period. We show that the 2003–2005 cooling is largely an artifact of a systematic change in the observing system, with the deployment of Argo floats reducing a warm bias in the original observing system.

Forecasters predict heavy drinking at TCSDaily and the American Spectator.

The froofaraw stems from a 2006 paper by John Lyman and colleagues in Geophysical Research Letters claiming that sea surface waters grew cooler between 2003 and 2006. Gavin Schmidt noted in April that the authors corrected their paper to account for the probability that a large-scale change in the sampling method could entirely explain the anomalous cooling, and this week’s paper confirms that. In a commentary on the Lyman work linked enthusiastically by rightwing bloggers the skeptic/contrarian researcher Roger Pielke wrote:

If the ocean absorbs most of the heat (which Climate Science agrees with), than that is the climate metric that should be reported on with respect to global warming, rather than the global average surface temperature trend data.

Indeed. Like creationists, greenhouse doubters really need to stay away from testable predictions.

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Reader Interactions

20Comments

  1. 1.

    Andrew

    June 27, 2007 at 9:57 am

    But ExxonMobile says CO2 is… life.

  2. 2.

    BIRDZILLA

    June 27, 2007 at 10:09 am

    I see that ENVORMENTAL DEFENSE is putting on some fruadelent tv ads calling global warming a real threat and their lying and are now using kids to push their lies have those eco-freaks no shame? SCREW ENVIROMENTAL DEFENSE they should stick with THE LITTLE MERMAID

  3. 3.

    DougJ

    June 27, 2007 at 11:03 am

    Tim, I don’t normally flog stories here, but you really should write about the fact that the Washington Post had someone who admittedly does math at a first grade level write a opinion piece claiming there may be no such thing as global warming.

    Here’s a link to the comment I did on this yesterday.

  4. 4.

    The Other Steve

    June 27, 2007 at 11:21 am

    Obviouslly the ocean is warming due to the air conditioners on submarines.

    you mitwit!

  5. 5.

    The Other Steve

    June 27, 2007 at 11:25 am

    mitwit(tm) should have been trademarked.

  6. 6.

    Tsulagi

    June 27, 2007 at 12:13 pm

    mitwit™ should have been trademarked.

    You should trademark it before smart Romney supporters grab it as their own.

  7. 7.

    Bubblegum Tate

    June 27, 2007 at 12:24 pm

    Obviouslly the ocean is warming due to the air conditioners on submarines.

    Well, that and Jesus.

  8. 8.

    Pb

    June 27, 2007 at 1:06 pm

    MittWitt? MitTwit?

  9. 9.

    chopper

    June 27, 2007 at 1:18 pm

    If the ocean absorbs most of the heat (which Climate Science agrees with), than that is the climate metric that should be reported on with respect to global warming, rather than the global average surface temperature trend data.

    man, where’s nelson muntz when you need him? HA-HA!

  10. 10.

    The Other Steve

    June 27, 2007 at 1:55 pm

    You should trademark it before smart Romney supporters grab it as their own.

    They’re easily bamboozled. After all, they think the reason we declared war on Japan in WWII is because they refused to sell us wasabi for our sushi.

  11. 11.

    Punchy

    June 27, 2007 at 2:38 pm

    SCREW ENVIROMENTAL DEFENSE they should stick with THE LITTLE MERMAID

    I’d rather stick with environmental defense and screw The Little Mermaid.

    /rimshot

  12. 12.

    HyperIon

    June 27, 2007 at 3:31 pm

    I’d rather stick with environmental defense and screw The Little Mermaid.

    FOR ONCE the always salacious Punchy makes a funny.

  13. 13.

    PAULQX

    June 27, 2007 at 6:31 pm

    Where is Michael Crichton when you need him. This latter day hero of the right has been fairly quiet of late as evidence of global warming heats up. I expect a neo-con type non apology out of him some time in the next few years. Something like “I never said global warming was not happening, just not to the degree, for the reasons and in the way that the liberal media proponents let on. In light of recent events nothing I see changes my mind, it just brings into sharper focus how the extremists were wrong because they were basing their arguments on facts that we did not yet posses. To the extent that they were correct it is no credit to them.”.

    Iraq WMD’s all over again.

  14. 14.

    The Other Steve

    June 27, 2007 at 7:53 pm

    Where is Michael Crichton when you need him.

    He’s been silenced by the Global Warming Illuminati.

  15. 15.

    Eric

    June 28, 2007 at 10:37 am

    Remind me again why Michael Crichton is considered an expert by the right. Is it due to the great science in “Jurassic Park” or the number of Emmys and hot doctors in ER? I seem to remember learning in grad school that box office take always trumps peer-reviewed science.

  16. 16.

    Ted

    June 28, 2007 at 10:52 am

    But CO2 is good! It’s got electrolytes!

  17. 17.

    SciGeek

    June 28, 2007 at 11:42 am

    “If the ocean absorbs most of the heat (which Climate Science agrees with), than that is the climate metric that should be reported on with respect to global warming, rather than the global average surface temperature trend data.”

    Not even wrong! Thermal equilibration between the sea and air will take longer than we may have left. We need to use ALL the data, along with the thermodynamic models to make sense of it. This kind of “scientific” nitpicking chaps my ass.

  18. 18.

    coltergeist

    June 28, 2007 at 1:20 pm

    Conservagreeds and Rethuglicans operate on the principal that they only need to fool enough people to get through the next election cycle.

  19. 19.

    BIRDZILLA

    July 1, 2007 at 9:16 pm

    SAVE A PENGUIN EAT A LEOPARD SEAL.Hey they have a new cook book its called THE INVASIVE SPECIES COOKBOOK

Comments are closed.

Trackbacks

  1. Minefeed.com says:
    June 28, 2007 at 11:17 am

    Mike’s Blog Round Up

    You’d be amazed how often there’s a 9/11 in Iraq and Afghanistan.
    Like creationists, greenhouse […]

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