Contrary to my post below, maybe Republicans won’t sign on to Democratic proposals because they know that whether they do or don’t the troops are coming out of Iraq. This (via Sullivan) from Joe Klein, who I trust about as far as I can punt him, both explains a lot and jibes with what military-connected readers have been telling me.
There is another clock, not often mentioned, that sits in the Pentagon. It is the Broken Army clock, the service timeline for an exhausted force. Petraeus and his staff were deeply concerned when rumors of another tour extension, from the current 15 months for soldiers, spread in mid-June. “It would be a last resort,” Secretary of Defense Robert Gates told reporters — but troop morale is so iffy that Petraeus quietly urged his commanders to “get the word out” to their soldiers that the extension rumors were false.
According to the Broken Army clock, troop levels will begin to wane in March 2008, no matter what Congress decides in September; the current 20 brigade combat teams will be reduced to 15 by August 2008. There is growing speculation in the military that Bush will try to pre-empt the Petraeus testimony by announcing a gradual drawdown from 20 to 15 combat brigades later this summer. “As if that isn’t going to happen anyway,” a senior officer told me. “But it may give us some political breathing space” — that is, it may subvert the Democrats’ calls for a more rapid withdrawal — “if the President makes a big deal of announcing we’re drawing down.”
Digesting this information is almost unspeakably painful. Essentially, the narrative argues that Bush broke the army and killed god knows how many American kids because his ego couldn’t handle the blow of capitulating to the Democrats’ position. All things considered I would prefer to think that the president really believed that his “surge” might work, meaning that he was either unwilling or unable to listen to the commanders telling him that he doesn’t have the force to ride it out. The alternative is just awful.
scarshapedstar
I’m of the opposite mind. We’ve seen, and survived, governments of evil men – Nixon, Reagan, Bush 1 – but a government of dickless cretins is what keeps me up at night. Foreign intelligence agencies must be having a field day.
Mr Furious
Get your head around it, Tim. It’s the truth. Wedge these in there as well…winning elections and benifitting the oil and military-industrial complex…
srv
It isn’t ego if God told him to do it.
His only alternative is that God lied to him.
Zifnab
The ultimate stab-in-the-back betrayal to his own party. I like it. For the past year, Republicans and Liebermans have been pounding that war drum like it was going out of style. Now, to have the President do a 180 right in their faces and start charging in the other direction? Yeah, if he actually pulls this crap without giving the talking pointers a mile’s worth of rhetoric reorientation space, I guarantee we’ll see his poll number scrapping the teens by the end of ’08.
srv
Yeah, and all we have to look forward to is Hillary or Rudy. Two replacements who are just as craven, but alot more intelligent.
Woo-hoo, two candidates who are praying GW bombs Iran so they don’t have to.
It’s going to get alot worse before it gets any better. Particularly if you’re an Iraqi.
Steve
Aren’t you just running at the football yet again, Tim?
For how many years now, we’ve been assured that troop drawdowns will just HAVE to occur before such-and-such date. Yet it never happens. In the words of Bullwinkle, “This time for sure!”
croatoan
At least 60 Americans have been killed in Iraq every month since August 2006. (Every month since April 2006 except for July 2006, when 43 Americans were killed.)
At least 70 Americans have been killed in Iraq every month since September 2006.
At least 80 Americans have been killed in Iraq every month since December 2006.
At least 100 Americans have been killed in Iraq every month since April 2007.
Ned Raggett
Well that’s progress, isn’t it.
Punchy
Tim, you were so close to running this full-circle. All you needed to add was: “And now he chooses a policy that is only about politics; in effect, as a grunt, you’ll die for him when it helps the Republicans, and come home, shut yer trap, and smile to the cameras when it helps the Republicans. Because–and only because–I say so.”
Really, this “preemption” makes me want to puke. It’s now 100% about saving his rep, and 0% about either winning or saving our Army.
Sigh.
srv
The insurgents obviously have their own strategy.
Punchy
OT–
Is this official #3…4?…5? who’s said these exact words
I can count Gonzo, Wolfie, Bolton…who am I missing?
Your MAMA
I think that we should bring our troops home…they have been over there for to long already…Yousuck
luv always your MAMA
Andrew
Remember, the MOST SIMPLE explanation for exvery single thing that the Bush administration has done is that Dick Cheney is an Iranian sleeper agent.
ThymeZone
Good grief …. anybody actually doubted this? In what stretch of the imagination could we suppose that in the face of the Iraq Study Group report, we could be here, now, and the reason would be anything other than Bush’s fucking intransigence? Seriously, WTF? Did anyone here … anyone … think that?
I read your blurb several times to make sure it wasn’t tongue in cheek. All I can say is, give us a fucking break. Bush is a goddammed stupid sociopath, and we have been saying it, and meaning it, for YEARS here.
Good god. Wasn’t Mission Accomplished, and Bring It On and all the rest of this guy’s fucked behavior enough to convince you?
jrg
By Bush’s own admission, Iraq is to be an issue for the next president to deal with. There may be political calculus here, veiled by plausible deniability, or this may be the result of a very rigid and limited mind.
The bottom line is that there is no difference. There is no way he can continue the surge without introducing a draft and getting congressional support for it.
So far incompetence and malice have been indistinguishable within this crowd. I don’t want to ride in a bus driven by Barney Fife or Charlie Manson. Barney Fife would probably be upset after getting me killed, but what difference does it make if I’m dead?
Rome Again
Perhaps I just don’t go to the movies enough, but I went to see Sicko on Tuesday night, and I sat through about a seven minute trailer on the virtues of joining the National Guard. Are they so desperate they’re creating informercials to show in public theaters now?
BFR
Are they so desperate they’re creating informercials to show in public theaters now?
Yes. Have you watched any sports lately? Around here, seems like half of the adverts on during sporting events are for the marines.
srv
I hear it’s hotter in Thymezoneland than in Greenzoneland. And think of all the educational benefits.
Zifnab
Clearly you haven’t been in a movie theater in a while. They’ve been doing this for the past three or four years.
mrmobi
You are correct, Mr. Tim. Republicans are playing politics with the lives of our troops with the full complicity of the mainstream media. What a surprise.
Here is some of what Bill Odom said about the troops yesterday on AntiWar.com:
Go read the whole thing. Odom should get a medal, he’s the only ex-General willing to tell the whole truth.
Zifnab
Fifty years from now, when people look back and ask “What the hell was America thinking?”, I’m confident Odom will be suggested reading from any military history professor worth his salt. In many ways, that’s better than any medal this President could give.
Tim F.
Bill Odom is writing on AntiWar? Apparently he hasn’t read that much of Raimondo’s stuff.
Rome Again
Clearly I haven’t. Back in Florida, when I was there, they didn’t show National Guard infomercials, they showed car dealership infomercials. Of course, I lived in an area where kids weren’t supposed to grow up and die for their country, they grow up to take over Daddy’s company instead.
ThymeZone
antiwar.com links to wherever the material is. Odom is not listed as a columnist. But they’ll link to his articles.
I strongly recommend that everyone read the site regularly, and get the antiwar perspective. I also urge all readers to contribute money to the site whenever possible.
carol h
My son was caught up in this last month. He had heard the rumor that his current 15 month long deployment extension might be extended again to 18 months. He told us that he had heard of several units that had beene extended to 18 months and his wife told us she knew a woman whose husband had been extended. My son was very distressed, mostly because of the effect on his young wife. His commanding officer gathered them together about 2 weeks ago and said that they would not be extended again and would be home in lat Oct. or early Nov. as scheduled. Of course we were all very relieved but the fact that he and his fellow soldiers believed this was possible says a lot. He is in Ramadi, thankfully much calmer than it was when he first arrived there but still dangerous, his base is about 1/2 mile from the bridge that was bombed July 2, and he travels over that bridge almost daily. He takes his turn as a turret gunner on his Humvee and last week it was 135 degress in his turret and he wears 75 pounds of body armor. It’s going to be a very long summer for him, especially as he passes Aug. 1, his original return date.
Bubblegum Tate
Just remember:
Bush bringing the troops home = glorious, glorious victory
Democrats/Congress bringing the troops home = shameful defeat + teh terrists are following them home!
Bush is going to try to cover his ass, the wingnuts will gloat about how we achieved our victory–God’s victory, really–even though damn dirty libs tried to engineer American defeat every step of the way, we’ll roll our eyes at their stupidity and be glad that at least we’re finally getting our troops home.
mrmobi
Carol, here’s a wish that you and your son have a happy reunification, and thank you both, very much.
Fed up!
Wait a sec. If they reduce the brigades from 20 to 15 won’t they just be pulling the “surge” forces out? That will still leave 130,000 troops. This isn’t a meaningful reduction but rather another cute way to say “progress has been made.” Lies. All lies.
jh
I went to the movies a few weeks ago and the ads were offering a FREE IPOD if you enlist.
WTF?!?!?
Gold Star for Robot Boy
And when they finally found his head after the IED blew the PFC’s body to bits, his iPod was still playing “Stairway to Heaven,” man!
RSA
Best wishes for your son, Carol. I hope he comes back safely, and soon.
sglover
I think it’s been clear for the better part of a year now that, at least as far as Bush is concerned, the real reason for hanging on in Iraq is so that he can shirk the obvious signs of failure — withdrawal, and whatever painful aftermath follows. The regime’s hangers-on, the Kagans and Cheneys and so forth, all have their own theological or financial reasons for supporting the ongoing disaster. But Bush’s reasons are purely self-serving, in the deepest sense: He doesn’t want to add yet another failure to an already immense list. Like everything else he’s fucked up in his sorry excuse for a life, his only goal is to shove the problem off on his successor.
For this, and nothing more, the “Decider”, the “Commander in Chief”, is perfectly willing to loot his country’s treasury, and squander the lives of hundreds of thousands.
Zifnab
Holy crap! Where’s that recruiting station?!
The Other Steve
I’m so glad y’all voted for Bush and saved the military from that dirty bastard Clinton!
Dreggas
Guess they’re too broke to offer those signing bonuses now…
Rome Again
I think I saw that too, and it didn’t cross my mind until now. I was just amazed that they had to fall to this type of commercial level at all, just to get people to sign up.
I have led a fairly sheltered life in recent years though, I’ll admit.
sglover
He takes his turn as a turret gunner on his Humvee and last week it was 135 degress in his turret and he wears 75 pounds of body armor.
Carol H: I hope your son gets through his ordeal. But your remark about temperatures brings up something that I’ve been wondering for a while now: Would you happen to know how much water those troops are drinking over there? I got to wear a flak jacket and helmet for one week during a North Carolina summer, and it nearly wiped me out. How is it that in Iraq they aren’t losing a guy per platoon per week from heat stroke?
MBunge
“For how many years now, we’ve been assured that troop drawdowns will just HAVE to occur before such-and-such date.”
Yeah, these “the broken army” stories always miss an essential point. It’s virtually impossible for any institution like the U.S. Army to break. It can become more and more broken and function more and more poorly, but it will always function well enough for somebody to make excuses to continue the current status quo. The army would only break if, while in a state of degraded capability, some additional and immediate stress is placed on it…like, say, a war with Iran?
Mike
Richard Bottoms
>Good grief …. anybody actually doubted this? I
Good thing I didn’t vote for the stupid bastards responsible. Twice.
BTW, I’ve been focusing my attention on Rod Dreher these days. He’s just about where John was about four years ago when he was still rah-rah’ing this clusterfuck. Back when he was still shocked at what Republicans would say or do to get elected, and I was relentlessly needling him about it.
The dejection at Beliefnet is wonderfully refreshing.
Anyway it’s nice to drop in where I can say we’re going to kick fucking ass in 2008.
HyperIon
Me neither. I just DVD now. But….what is the audience reaction? I would have a strong inclination to yell “Fuck Bush”.
there are no good republicans, no?
i was wondering where you had been.
Rome Again
Shaking of heads, because you’re also told to keep quiet so the other guy next to you can enjoy the movie. ;)
Rome Again
Well, if Grover Norquist wanted to drown the government in a bathtub, what better way to do it than assure that we have no military with which to defend ourselves? We’ll be a province of China or Russia in no time flat.
Carol H
I asked my son how he stayed hydrated and he said it wasn’t really a problem for him but he didn’t get specific. I know he wears a camelback and I think he drinks pretty much constantly. They also carry Gatorade in the Humvee with them. He does say that at the end of the day his clothes stand up by themselves.
Cain
Carol,
I had the opportunity to visit Qatar. A nice place, but it was pretty hot. Even the natives would skip along the ground (like a cat on a hot tin roof) from the car to an air conditioned building.
I don’t envy trucking around in that environment. It takes some serious constitution points to do that with that kind of load.
cain
Zifnab
Or Endure Elements cast once a day by a 3rd level wizard.
Cain
I would use ‘Create Hola Fruit’ spellas well. You need comfort food there for sure.
cain
Beej
The next administration is going to have to end this Iraq debacle alright, but never discount the Republicans’ ability to make political hay out of the drawdown that’s going to have to happen by next summer. You can bet the farm that whoever the Repub candidate for Pres may be, they’re going to take credit for the drawdown and, when the Dems win and call an end to the fiasco in Iraq, the Repubs will bitch, moan, and lament “losing” the war, which will be, of course, all the fault of the Democrats.
ConservativelyLiberal
I have a feeling that Bush is only trying to run the clock out, maybe in hopes of a miracle. IMO, the ‘surge’ is the equivalent of a Hail Mary pass that he is making after putting on a blindfold and being spun around a few dozen times. He is hoping beyond hope that he will hit something. Anything.
I am pissed that Osama has been given a free pass by this administration. I believe that Bush backed off of Osama as he needs a boogey man out there that he can point to and say ‘He is going to get you…’. If they had nailed him at Tora Bora, that essentially would have meant the end of major combat operations. Everything after that would just be a footnote. I feel that is why they let Osama escape. Once he was bagged, people would have demanded that our troops be sent home soon afterward. That would have meant reduced profits for the military-industrial complex.
By leaving Osama is business, maybe (in Bush’s mind, if he even has one) he will make another strike against us and whip up the frenzy again. If Osama is smart, he will leave Bush to dangle in the wind as an abject failure. Having failed to stop 9-11, failed to clean up Afghanistan, made another Vietnam out of Iraq and failed to catch Osama, Bush will go down as the most miseable failure in the history of United States presidents.
Our stature in the world is shot to pieces, our economy has been plundered for the ‘war effort’ (read profiteering and outright theft), thousands upon thousands of people have been killed, maimed and disfigured, and we now have more enemies than we had prior to 9-11.
But as long as Bush and his rich cronies get their piece of the pie, they view it as a success. Some of these damn wingnuts are too stupid to realize that they have been had by one of their own. The smarter people in his party have come to this conclusion and have bailed on him, leaving only the xenophobic and paranoid nutjobs are carrying the water for this abject failure of an administration.
Eisenhower knew what he was warning us about when he said what he did about the developing military-industrial complex. War is profit, and for some people, the only way to make money is to make war. Eisenhower knew the horrors of war firsthand, and he knew that there were people in our military and the industries that supply the military that were advocating war whenever the chance presented itself.
Right now, our troops and their targets are only cannon fodder for the rich and privileged. Why is there no draft? Because that would mean sending people who had not volunteered, and that would have caused more dissent at home as it did in Vietnam. That is why they have resisted calls for a draft as strongly as they have.
Boy did Cheney learn from Nixon. No draft means longer wars before the people start calling for an end to it, stonewalling any oversight allows all kinds of abuses by the executive branch, and exercising power and challenging anyone to do something about it only made Bush more powerful.
Bush has never been our president, he is only a meat puppet that Cheney has used to run roughshod over the Constitution and the people of America and the rest of the world.
I am so sick of this, and I blame both parties for allowing it to happen. When Bush pushed for war authorization right before the elections back in 2002, I knew exactly what he was up to. And the spineless Democrats let him pull it off.
This is one sick country we live in. Sick…
Wilfred
For anyone interested, there’s a long interview with the Iraqi novelist Sinan Antoon at:
http://www.democracynow.org/article.pl?sid=07/07/06/1359238
The phrases winning and losing the war matter little when you think of what the Iraqis have endured since Bush liberated them.
jake
Awful it is. The man couldn’t give less of a flying fuck if he tried.