Something that should get your attention:
Stocks dropped sharply as soon as trading opened today after a French bank, BNP Paribas, suspended operations of three of its funds in the wake of turmoil in the American market for home loans and the European Central Bank injected cash into the financial system because of tightening credit markets.
The Dow Jones industrial average fell more than 200 points, or 1.5 percent, while the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index and the Nasdaq composite index were down just as much. Shortly after 10 a.m., the Nasdaq had recovered much of its losses but the Dow remained down about 170 points.
The plunge came after a sell-off in Europe, which was prompted after BNP, the largest publicly traded bank in France, became the latest European lender to announce problems linked to the worsening credit market in the United States, where several large companies have already announced losses.
A German central bank meeting was under way to discuss details of a rescue package for the lender IKB, another victim of exposure to the crisis in subprime lending.
Jonathan Mullen, a spokesman for BNP, said that the credit squeeze in the United States had made it impossible to calculate the value of the underlying assets of the funds and that the bank was obliged by market conditions to halt holders of the funds from cashing out or new investors from buying shares in the funds.
Keep your eye on this.
Quick! Cut taxes!
Third Eye Open
I saw a head-shaking story last week about Canada reporting a 30-year high of American Immigrating to Canada…sounds like some folks were just ahead of the curve
You’ve been rooting for a downturn for years now, eventually the cycle will go around, as it always does, and you’ll claim you were right, kind of like a broken watch is right if it keeps saying the same time for 24 hours, it eventually hits it.
Its kind of sad the liberals are reduced to rooting for A. the U.S. to fail in Iraq and 2. the U.S. economy to crash.
Partisanship above country, that should be a Dem bumpersticker.
Third eye- what they DON’T say is
But ABC buries the lead, waiting until the fifth paragraph to reveal that more Canadians are coming here, and trying to downplay that to boot:
Of course, those numbers are still outweighed by the number of Canadians going the other way. Yet, that imbalance is shrinking. Last year, 23,913 Canadians moved to the United States, a significant decrease from 29,930 in 2005.
These numbers actually understate the disparity by an order of magnitude. Canada is a sparsely populated country; there are more than nine times as many Americans as Canadians. That means that when adjusted for population, 20 times as many Canadians moved south in 2006 as Americans moved north. If we liberate Iran too, we may not be able to keep up with influx of Canucks.
More of that great economy we’ve enjoyed during Bush’s terms in office.
Does the surge of politesse apply to this thread as well?
Because I really want to call jones a fucking idiot.
I started to write a long post about all the things(Outing CIA agents, sitting by a lying AG, bringing politics into every department in the government, etc etc etc) the curent administration has done for partisanship over the last 6 years or so and then I realized why am I bothering. I mean Jones is so void of reality that nothing I say will help him. Only thing I can suggest is to seek help..professional help.
Heh. From what I am hearing it sounds like the same shit we had happening here was happening across the pond. Both in Europe and England, shady lending with the same types of programs, some even crazier.
This is a slow motion train wreck, it will take it’s sweet ass time and things will get worse long before they are better. Granted this could be termed cyclical, the differential here is that there is a lot of money tied up in these schemes that has no relation to the actual housing/credit crunch so this will hit beyond them.
Actions have consequences? Who would have thunk it?
Meanwhile, China is threatening to stuff truck loads of cash up our asses.
Financial terraism! Guess we’d better declare war on … The Philipines.
You don’t think there’s enough leftover resentment from the 1980s against Japan to make them a good alternative target?
Slow motion train wreck? One at a time; we’ve still got 17 months left of the Bush Administration. Besides, stop being so negative. You can bet your bottom Beauchamp that supporting the stock market is the same as supporting the troops, not like supporting it, but the same thing.
oddly enough, they don’t think things will straighten out in the mortgage/housing biz until 2009…
J. Michael Neal
It isn’t just another hedge fund blowing up. The European Central Bank conducted a massive open market operation to inject liquidity, the first time they’ve intervened since Sept 13, 2001. The Fed followed suit. Between the two of them, they just pumped about $150 billion in cash into the banks.
Yeah, but Pretzelnet Chimp said to day that the economy was in fine shape, and that this will all shake out in a few months.
He has a plan, see — it involves shipping the excess ponies from Iraq to the United States. Given the current pony shortage in Iraq, though, the administration is going to do a heckuva job shipping us jackalopes instead.
(Look, over there — dead kids in school! Possibly killed by a Scary Brown Person!)
Fannie Mae does not even know what their portfolio of loans is worth.
No-one has known what the mortgage-backed securities are worth ever since underwriting standards went out the window some five years ago. Still, immense profits were to be made underwriting, securitizing, tranching, hedging, and arbitraging all this questionably secured debt. Wall Street has made enormous bonuses from this business – the rest of us are going to get plowed under with a severely farked economy, and the boys on Wall Street are going to look for a new racket for the next generation of MBA-wielding sociopaths.
This is the new world order: profits for the top 3%, externalize all the costs on the remaining 97%. We need a new Teddy Roosevelt or Franklin Roosevelt, or else we will need a new revolution. Been reading up on Shays rebellion, and it sounds awfully familiar!
Only for air attacks. For those thrilling shots of soldiers and tanks rolling into a city you need a country with a weak army.
Proof positive that within a few months we will be competing with radioactive sewer rats in the burned out cities for survival.
Remember Pearl Harbor!
I was talking with my father last night and he kept trying to put the “cyclical spin” on this whole thing but he couldn’t keep it going, after all I have worked in the industry and know just what a clusterfuck we’re heading for.
Tulkinghorn is almost spot on. Remember the bankruptcy bill. It wasn’t a case of forcing personal responsibility, it was a case of the credit industry and mortgage industry knowing what was coming and protecting their sorry asses from having to deal with any of the consequences while basically telling the people that gave them their business to FOAD.
This is what government by plutocrats gets you, every fucking time. Proof once again that left to their own devices corporations will NOT self-regulate. If they can make a killing off of the backs of everyone then so be it and they will cut corners while fucking everyone else over.
As much as I like the idea of a free market and like capitalism this is its dark underbelly.
OK, Tim, John. Time to pony up.
A posting that ends “partisanship above country should be the dems motto” is a direct personal attack upon every dem here. Why hasn’t it been taken down?
eh, leave it up. It made me chuckle. If it is spoof, let it be, if not spoof, then it practically refutes itself.
You know something, I remember the whole “buy American” campaign and how we were completely pissed off by “being owned by Japan” and all the so-called conservative blowhards going on about it. Then what happens? Now we’re owned by China and they aren’t saying a fucking word.
Personally, I’m rooting for schools that teach kids the difference between letters and numbers. “Let’s all sing along: A 2 C D, E F 7. . .”
And every Dem candidate is calling for massive new government spending by increasing the Nanny-State…
Yeah…that’ll fix things.
Won’t fix a damn thing. Of course I have only heard Hillary talking about bailing out borrowers. This is a situation where the government fucked up too but it’s also the responsibility of an industry that wouldn’t regulate itself, relaxed underwriting standards and preyed upon people without showing them the fine print.
An industry that owns the GOP (and may have partial ownership of the Democratic party too) and has engineered itself a borrower-unfriendly, predatory business model protected by laws that were bought and paid for.
Yep, truer words couldn’t be spoken. I remember vividly being at an anniversary lunch with the president of the company I used to work for and him bragging about having lunch with shrub (as well as other mortgage big whigs). This is also the result of non-enforcement of the laws meant to prevent predatory policies.
This is as old as when the “bankers” ran the show, now they’re bankers with different titles.
That’s a potential shoe-dropping I’ve been a little worried about for quite a while. Our economy has been allowed to bubble and foam in no small part to vast sums lent it by the Chinese. I posted a couple months ago that at some point they might decide to put their money elsewhere and pull or at least cut back on lending to the U.S. The only reason for them NOT to do this is that we have generally turned around and spend a good deal of it on Chinese products, but by itself that isn’t likely sufficient rationale for them to keep propping us up if they think we’re tanking, or if they feel investing elsewhere is more to their benefit. We’re not dealing with folks prone to sentimental decision-making here. At a certain point it might be considered to their benefit if we DID tank.
This might have sounded somewhat far-fetched a while back, but not so much now.
Only my opinion, of course
Third Eye Open
Thanks for missing the forest while you were following your nose looking for a pic-a-nic basket.
You make a bad spoof, and an even worse population analyst.
Smarter than the average bear, my ass!
You are an optimist. Housing corrections take 6-7 years on average, and this has been the greatest run-up in history. This is going to take a long time to correct.
Don’t buy until you start seeing “Why you should rent instead of buy” stories in Time magazine. That will be the turnaround.
Actually I am predicting a full blown meltdown which will spill over into other sectors of the market. As for buying, I told everyone back in the middle of 05 that it wasn’t right to buy yet, they should wait, as is housing prices are starting to drop but not even near the bottom yet which is why I am still happily renting.
Don’t try to catch a falling knife!
Agreed. That seems to be a mantra with regard to the stocks in these companies. Hell AHM just melted down, Luminent is going. It’s only a matter of time before others do.
Partisanship above country, that should be a Dem bumpersticker.
Sane humans: “Hey, you’re killing my family and burning my house down.”
Republicans: “Why are you cheering for your family to be killed and your house burned down? You hate the house and you hate your family.”
Sane humans: “…”
The Other Steve
Rooting? Hmm, I work for a mortgage company, and frankly we’re a bit afraid of our jobs right now.
I’d say it’s more of a case of observing reality. I started here in ’98, which was the start of the mortgage boom. But, there’s a real key here and that is the reality that from 2001-2006 our economy was primarily running on mortgage credit. Now, I think it’s expanded beyond that recently, but I don’t know just how much and the real fear here is it’s not enough to offset the looming crisis caused by all that borrowing.
The Other Steve
And I agree with Demi. Are John and Tim going to take down the Jones posts or not? Otherwise the commenting policy is crap.
This is the key, this is where the boom got into full swing. I had started with a company in 00 and they were still talking about potential “layoffs” as a scare tactic. Then the boom came and they couldn’t fill jobs fast enough. Now, of course, the boom is over and they are melting right down to cutting work hours to 32 hours a week etc.
Oh another lovely facet of all of this that people haven’t been talking about, but should be. The effects on insurance markets and sales in areas affected by the flooding and wild fires and such that have been occurring across the country. Hell Brooklyn had a fucking TORNADO!
This will affect people trying to insure their homes in areas located within flood zones or in danger from fires/hurricanes in the form of higher rates which also puts a crunch on them when it comes to having cash.
“The Other Steve Says:
And I agree with Demi. Are John and Tim going to take down the Jones posts or not? Otherwise the commenting policy is crap.”
Then you’ll be wanting them to take Gilmore’s post down as well right?
We’re also in the midst of dotcom bubble 2.0. We live in interesting times.
Finally! Finally we manage to get back at those French Appeasers!
Personal attacks of any kind from any quarter are not supposed to be tolerated. I realize that IOKIYAR is a mantra these days in conservative blogistan, but that shit doesn’t fly around here.
“I realize that IOKIYAR is a mantra these days in conservative blogistan, but that shit doesn’t fly around here.”
True, you’ll never find that kind of attitude on say Kos, Huffington or Democratic Underground, they’re always tolerate of the other side. Just go try it sometime, I’m sure it’ll work out just fine for you.
yet another jeff
The other part that makes this fun, other than the Bankruptcy Bill which made me wonder when this would happen and what they were trying to cover their asses against…I love how it’s supposed to be reassuring when the analysts say this won’t be a Jode Family thing…again with the soft bigotry of low expectations. “We’re not as bad about torture as the terrorists!” “Our ‘market correction’ won’t be as bad as The Grapes of Wrath! Probably.”
This was another of my gut feelings when the bankruptcy bill passed they were playing CYA for this shit..
The Lefties tend to condemn Righties for what they do: to wit: promote policies that Lefties consider foolish, selfish, and antisocial. Righties condemn Lefties for being treasonous, fascistic, and generally subhuman and worthy of persecution and murder.
One set of accusations is a critique, the other is ad hominem slurs. Try to figure out the difference.
The Other Steve
Is Gilmore’s post an insult? He is pretty much just echoing Jones point using slightly different wording.
Wouldn’t Jones be proud of Gilmore’s post, because he accurately portrayed the argument he was making?
Holy. Fucking. Crap. From $8 to $0.80 in 3 days. I bet there’s a lot of rope and books on knots being sold in San Fran right now.
Yep. And like I said these are only a few dominoes just look here of course this is just OC but OC was a boom area for the subprime lending industry and for lenders in general with the god awful prices around here. Almost like the S&L’s all over again, weren’t a lot of them in OC too?
Clearly, if we intend to keep “liberating” countries, we need to build a fence along the Canadian border!
“The Lefties tend to condemn Righties for what they do: to wit: promote policies that Lefties consider foolish, selfish, and antisocial. Righties condemn Lefties for being treasonous, fascistic, and generally subhuman and worthy of persecution and murder.”
True, except Righties also condemn Lefties for promoting policies that they consider foolish, selfish and anti-social as well.
Please, SGT, you have to try harder than that! You will never make it to full-fledged Scape-Goat if you can’t step up the trolling a bit with a few ‘proven facts’ and an ‘everybody knows’.
This administration has crafted the next crash so that it will be on the backs of the public, allowing business to run rampant and give out credit without having to worry about the consequences of it. When the chickens come home to roost, it will not be in the homes of the rich. That is all that matters to them. The poor and middle classes are just a ‘Welcome’ mat for the rich.
Much as the so-called free trade capitalists may not want to hear it, unregulated capitalism is a disaster for the public. Regulations exist as we have found that when business is unregulated, it pretty much does what it wants to and damn the cost to anyone else.
If WalMart could get away with it, they would have kids working for free like they do in Mexico (unpaid volunteers, as they call them). Same with safety at work, if business could save money but it would make the workers less safe, as long as the regulations do not exist then the capitalists would do it in a heartbeat.
I am no socialist, commie or whatever. I just don’t look at capitalism through the rose tinted glass as the kool-aid drinkers. The name of the game now is to pump all of the $$$ out of the middle and lower classes in any way possible. When everything blows up, just call the government in to save the day.
If the middle and lower classes are pumped dry, I can hear the wingnuts hollering about how it is their own fault, for whatever reason(s) they invent. The rich and business can never do wrong. Never.
This describes me. I like capitalism, I like a free market but I am grounded in the reality that human nature, unchecked, for the most part is based on greed and getting “more” of whatever consequences be damned. As a result regulation and law is required. There’s no such thing as a free lunch and there’s no such thing as a free market, everyone has to pay sometime.
I’m just also going to add an amen to sentiments like the above. The amazing thing about “bankruptcy reform” was how transparent the arguments were. I mean people were getting 3 or 4 credit crad junk mail a day. It’s not like there was a shortage of consumer credit.
This is on top of the previous cc profit protection act which nullified all state usury laws, in favor of rules that apply where the cc company is located rather than where the debtor is located.
For me, a classic expression of this view is the libertarian argument that minimum wage laws are bad because take away the freedom not of employers but of employees, who should be “free” to work for as little money as they wish.
Lefties, anti-social? Come again.
They may have a problem with the policy but they attack the lefty not the policy. Attacking the policy invites a discussion about the policy and while the right has lots of points of distraction to use in these cases they don’t want to take the chance of a discussion happening. They know they’d lose if the facts were laid out and actually talked about. Ignorance is strength baby.
In Phoenix there is a check cashing ‘store’ on almost every block in the middle to poor sections of the city. When I first moved here in 95 they weren’t so plentiful. Now everywhere and they loan at ridiculous rates.
Is there a polite way to explain the situation to my friends who vote republican and rail about how the regular Joe sixpack just gets screwed over and over.
I have a similar situation to resolve involving a staunch republican friend who was cheerleading the republican president and his friendly congress for six years but now screams about Ted Kennedy when the topic of illegal immigration comes up. He actually uses terms like ‘northeast liberal values’ while telling me he doesn’t listen to Rush Limbaugh. You really have to be staggeringly ignorant to stay supportive of right wing politics if you’re not super rich.
The Other Steve
It’s all about keeping the poor, poor. If you let them accumulate wealth, then they’d start competing with you for prime real estate.
…kind of like a broken watch is right if it keeps saying the same time for 24 hours, it eventually hits it.
Fool me once shame on you. Don’t get fooled again.
See I can repeat hackneyed cliches, too. Don’t always get them right, same as you, but I try.
The conservatives (at least since the Reagan years) always think the economy is doing great when the stock market’s doing great. Regardless of wages, or employment, or bank solvency, or any other economic indicator. The economy never really was, and now with both the housing/construction and mortgage industries about to nosedive from the empire state building, here’s letting them know just exactly how screwed up it all is. This is gonna make the IT/Tech bubble of the 1990s look tame…
Well, I, for one, am proud to say that I don’t exercise a penny’s worth of credit, so the only way this will bite me in the ass personally is when everyone else feels the pinch first and starts demanding higher prices for everything. I figure early on, I’ll be ahead of the game. Afterwards, if chaos prevails, then we’re all screwed anyway, i might as well go down with the rest of them.
One thing I’m lucky for, I’ve managed to eat one meal a day, and I fast sometimes too, so I probably won’t starve as fast as everyone else. ;)
Like Dreggas, I’m renting and waiting for cheap housing; yet I’m also keeping an eye on the price of a loaf of bread.
My sister lives in Oregon; she’s told me that the local Safeway has lots of gaps on its shelves that didn’t use to be there.
My problem isn’t so much that as that Capitalism incorrectly defines human nature as having a strong greed motivator, and most people don’t (don’t believe me? sit on the WoW trade channel for a few hours and watch. it. go.) Actually, most people are motivated by strong cooperative urges; quite a few have strong achievement drives and use money as a metric; and a small group – maybe 2% of the population as a whole – are natural super-capitalists who are ruthless acquisitors.
As an illustration: most people reacted to the Gordon Gekko “Greed is Good” speech as an astonishing admission even though it’s basic Adam Smith. What interests me is not the speech itself or that he made it – it’s frankly unsurprising that Ivan Boesky, whose real life speech inspired the Gekko speech, or the fictional Gekko should have completely internalized the “ethics” of capitalism, that’s what you’d expect from someone who behaves the way they do. What I thought was interesting was that his statements were controversial, that in a capitalist society, so many people objected to an expression of capitalist theory.
Take a look sometime too, if you can stomach it, at the economic writing in politically active Christian publications. The writers there, and presumably the readers, advocate stringent adherence to pro-corporate, free market, sometimes even laissez-faire principles, while simultaneously calling for a rejection of rampant consumerism in favor of self-sacrifice and attention to other moral principles. It’s astounding because the second you say that people ought to have morals and ethics that motivate them to behave against their economic self-interest, then you’re punching Adam Smith’s whole theory smack in the nose.
so you have no money in the stock market? and you have no retirement accounts?
just because you “owe” nothing does not mean you will not be negatively impacted by this event.
and the fact that you will suffer AFTER someone else will hardly decrease the pain you experience then. right?
Ben Stein wrote an article last year in the NYT saying how it really is true that the economy is doing great…..for people in his bracket. He was honest enough to admit that anyone who isn’t rich (and acknowledges reality) can not be enjoying these last few years. His honesty allowed me to forgive him for the unhinged rant he wrote about the guy who admitting to being deepthroat. ‘Nixon was a peacemaker!!! Cambodia fell because he was forced to resign’ OK Ben.
The Other Steve
The same is true of our local Cub Foods, Target stores, etc. It’s starting to make me feel like I’m living in the Soviet Union.
But I have come to the conclusion, that this has less to do with real shortages, as it has to do with the failures of Just-in-Time delivery of product, as well as shelves that don’t hold much.
I don’t know if it’s because I’m getting old or what, but the thing I’m starting to find really disturbing is that products which I used to rely upon being able to find in the store… you can’t find any more.
Things like Pledge dusting spray, or carpet cleaners, or toothpaste. Products that had been around for decades are just vanishing.
Too bad Cole, you’re dreams of financial ruin of the U.S. economy, hopefully benefiting the Dems is crushed again, after :
“stocks post a net loss of 31 points today with a net gain for the week!”
The Bush economy rolls on, as it has for years, and it just galls you to no end. But keep rooting, eventually there will be a cyclical downturn and you can claim victory, and the misery of millions of Americans, as long as it furthers your political ends, will be a good thing.
You can’t admit President Bush has done anything worthwhile and competent. It would kill you and defuse your entire premise for living. You are an unserious and ignorant blogger and unworthy of even contempt.
It must suck to be you, or any of your family or friends. You are bitter and hateful in your outlook, and find it impossible to say you were wrong, EVER (see Scott Thomas/Beauchamp).
Get psychological help, really.
The conservatives (at least since the Reagan years) always think the economy is doing great when the stock market’s doing great.
Yeah, and as evinced by this post, Cole tries to have it the other way, if the market goes down (to levels of last MARCH for god’s sake) then its evidence the economy is tanking. Way to have it both ways, libs!
The stockmarket rebounded to -31 and is up for the week.
Suck it, libs.
Like that time he um … uh. What was it?
Damn, I was just thinking about his latest masterpiece…
I’ll get back to you.
Well, you got me with that one. I have to admit that there first has to be some accomplishment by King George that is worthwhile and competent to admit to.
Nope, that is a dry well. Now if you had said ‘You can’t admit President Bush has done anything worthless and incompetent.’, it would take me at least a week to detail everything.
Nope, not a one.
And I stated as much, didn’t I?
I never said it would, I just won’t go through the initial phase.
Then I’ll give you 3, since you are so ignorant of facts:
A great economy, for one.
Winning 2 wars quickly, when all the lefty pundits said we’d get wiped out in Afghanistan just like the Brits and Rooshkies did, and we _didn’t_ take massive casualties defeating Saddam’s vaunted army in about a week and a half.
Stabilizing the country has taken longer, but India/Pakistan are still going through the pains of establishing a democracy after the Brits cut and ran, American troops still patrol hot-spots around the world for longer than they have been in Iraq. I think President Bush has handled things as well as ANYONE could have, and better than most. Its a hard job, but libs have no stomach for hard jobs, no matter how worthy.
If we succeed, and indications are up that we will, there will be a great, stable, functioning democracy where once there was a belligerent, evil tyranny. And George W. Bush will be largely responsible.
On the other hand, if by some evil stroke of fate the 2008 election gives us Billary again, there will be a North American evil tyranny where a great stable functioning democracy once stood! :D
The stock market hit record highs September 3, 1929. Many years of peace and properity followed, of course.