Large attacks are down in Iraq:
The number of truck bombs and other large al-Qaeda-style attacks in Iraq have declined nearly 50% since the United States started increasing troop levels in Iraq about six months ago, according to the U.S. military command in Iraq.
The high-profile attacks — generally large bombs hitting markets, mosques or other “soft” targets that produce mass casualties — have dropped to about 70 in July from a high during the past year of about 130 in March, according to the Multi-National Force — Iraq.
Military officers say the decline reflects progress in damaging al-Qaeda’s networks in Iraq. The military has launched offensives around Baghdad aimed at al-Qaeda sanctuaries and bases.
“The enemy had the initiative and the momentum in ’06,” said Jack Keane, a retired general who is a chief architect of the increase in troop levels and mentor to Gen. David Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Iraq. “We’ve got it now.”
Troop casualties appear to be tapering off from their highpoint in May (your really can not draw too many inferences from that data yet), but daily attacks remain constant.
I don’t think there is any evidence that the surge is really working, but considering the majority party is weak, feckless, and refuses to do anything about the situation, and most agree that withdrawal wil be a long, long process regardless, I can sure hope the surge is working. After watching this administration bumble through everything, hope is really the only thing I have left.
Elvis Elvisberg
Well, of course, we’re hoping that everyone who’s been wrong about everything the past 6 years somehow finds the nut this time around.
And if the Surge goes as well as Petraeus hopes it will, we’ll wind down our occupation in ten years with Iraq looking sort of like today’s Yugoslavia. A mere few trillion dollars, few thousand Americans, and million or so dead Iraqis later.
norbizness
As long as things aren’t at the worst level ever, we have success!
Of course, the government falling apart, which even Petraeus and every other military commander say is a death-knell for the success of any military option, can’t be good.
Banzai Bunny
Except that July is always low, historically speaking. I feel the need to point out that there are now five years of statistics to work with.
Optimism is not impossible to come by in my household, but I am reserving judgement for a month or two.
Wilfred
No, there isn’t. The sheer density of American forces is the same as putting a cop on every street corner – you stop street crime but don’t get rid of its causes. The increased troop numbers are supposed to result in a climate favorable to a political solution that reflects long-standing Bush co propaganda about the new Middle East.
Every single commentator that I respect, that is to say people who actually read, write and speak Arabic and have more than passing experience with Iraq and the Muslim world, think the hoped for political solution is fantasy. Now if American voters were asked whether they would support a surge in search of a political solution that can’t be guaranteed, a surge that will cost, say, 60, American lives a month in attrition for, say, the next 60 months then that would be a fair question.
Dennis-SGMM
Imagine how few attacks would be if, as General Shinseki suggested, they’d sent in 300,000 troops in the first place.
Troop casualties are down from May because it’s just too damned hot to fight. When I was in Vietnam, attacks decreased during the monsoon season because it was too damned wet to fight. The generals and politicians back then never failed to attribute the decrease in attacks to whatever cockamamie strategy they were pushing at the time.
The lower number of truck bomb attacks is heartening news if only because it means that fewer innocent bystanders are dying. But I’d attribute that to behind the scenes negotiations between the various Shiite militias and the ghettoizing of the Sunnis.
ThymeZone
If Baghdad is anything like Phoenix, it is hotter than hell and the frequency of every human activity is down.
July casualties for the years 2003-2006 tend to be on the low side.
Trying to hang numbers on the phony “surge” is Rovesque. Why are we even paying attention to this bullshit?
cain
Plus points for using that in a sentence. I’m reminded of a Clint Eastwood movie where he mentions that people never say stuff like “Cockamamie” anymore.
As for your comment. Spot on. That’s probably the peak in heatness and they’d probably lose men either through foolishness to the heat or they might die just from heat stroke. Having been in a middle eastern country (Qatar) before and have experienced the heat I can well imagine what it’s like. I don’t envy anyone sitting around in the desert at this time of year.
cain
Tsulagi
Umm, I thought the primary purpose of The Surge was to give the Maliki government maneuvering room to work out lasting political solutions in Iraq since everyone agrees there isn’t a solely military solution. So how’s that working out?
Well, slightly before the Iraqi parliament members who actually still live in Iraq and attend sessions went on vacation after accomplishing nothing on major proposals, Maliki got his Shia side all worked up over our arming and training Sunni tribesmen…
No worries. Evidently Maliki decided to take The Decider’s advice to calm down by taking a soothing trip. To Iran. Maybe to visit Hakim, Bush and Cheney’s new buddy to replace Chalabi who was fawned over at the WH. You know, the head of SCIRI, Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq that was founded in Iran. Hakim is there getting cancer treatment after deciding to blow off Cheney and treatment in Texas.
But now our Decider Man is a little testy with Maliki. Seems maybe in addition to giving Hakim Tard and Tarder’s warmest regards, he also strolled some with Imadiningjihadi…
Ahh, our Commander Guy building relationships. You thought he only shined at G8 conferences. Maybe Maliki will return the advice to calm down to our guy. Possibly before Maliki takes his upcoming next trip while his cabinet unravels to another warm friend of Iraq, Syria.
Situation Normal. Stay the Course.
linda
i’ve read speculation that it’s because it’s 130 degrees in baghdad in july and the insurgents aren’t particularly inclined to handle explosives in extreme heat.
Tsulagi
Oops, missed putting in a link for my second blockquote above. More toughy talk from Commander Guy can be found here.
Zifnab
Butshit. It was my little magic rock that kept the
tigerinsurgents away. If you don’t believe in my little magic yellow rock, just look at the numbers. Bad shit is down everywhere that we claim we’ve placed our little magic yellow rocks. If we continue rock distribution at this rate, Iraq will be full of ponies and candy by 2093. That’s not much worse than how long it took for the English to beat back the IRA, or for Reagen to defeat Communism.Billy K
How might things have been different if we’d started this occupation with a “surge?”
ThymeZone
We’d have found the WMDs sooner.
Jake
I wondered if the weather/time of year might have something to do with the numbers and found this chart.
The Other Steve
Until we’ve given it six months, we won’t really know what was happened.
Besides, history will be the judge of whether or not we are successful.
Wilfred
Slightly off-topic but consistent with the hearts and minds political intentions behind the surge here
ThymeZone
Yes, but the devil is in the details. The generals in the field tell us what is needed, and the ultimate solution rests with future presidents.
Then and only then, history will be judge, and we’ll all be dead.
It’s a perfect management model, really. No possibility of any accountability whatsoever.
The Other Steve
That’s nonsense.
We all know this is the Democrats fault.
Jimmmmm
What, exactly, is an “al Qaeda style” attack?
Sounds like some more empty phrase-mongering that slipped through JC’s filter…
Jimmmmm
Jake: Hell, their government won’t work in that weather. Maybe the terr’ists won’t, either…
ThymeZone
Characterized by a flagrant abuse of box cutters, and featuring sand fleas with tiny explosives strapped around their thoraxes.
Badtux
Nonsense, The Other Steve. Everybody knows it’s Clinton’s fault. Or, more specifically, Clinton’s penis’s fault, silly free willy! C’mon, didn’t you get the memo from Wing Nut Daily?!
– Badtux the Snarky Penguin
PS – I go with the “it’s 130F in the shade and I ain’t handlin’ explosives in that kinda temperature” bit, myself.
g-rant
I looked at the month-by-month stats from icasualties and made two graphs.
Long story short, there does seem to be a bit of a summer lull, but the data’s pretty messy.
LITBMueller
Tsulagi nails it above. Here in Philadelphia, we could virtually eliminate the homicide rate if we put tanks and heavily armored cops and troops on every corner in North and West Philly.
Problem is, we can’t (a) sustain that indefinitely, and (b) once the lockdown ends, the shooting will just start again.
And, even if in Iraq the Parliament didn’t go on vacation, and Sunnis and Shiites got together and made nicey nice in order to build a unified government, it wouldn’t be much better than Mayor Street announcing at a press conference, “I met with the DA, police, and City Council, and we all agree what needs to be done,” since the shooting will continue, anyway.
Just like on the streets of Philly, people aren’t shooting at each other simply because the government isn’t doing a good job. The surge is a band aid on cancer.
TenguPhule
To quote: Hope is not a plan.
And the worst part is, the Iraqi fighters can relax when the heat is up. American forces can’t.
Redhand
Shinseki’s prophetic assessment of what was required is worth a full quote:
I continue to be astounded and depressed by the magnitude of the incompetence that got us mired in this debacle. The worst thing is that the principal idiots behind it — Cheney and Bush, and yes name order here is intentional — are both unrepentant about the lives they have squandered on both sides. Hell, on Larry King Cheney said that despite all the fuck-ups he’d do it again!
Where does that kind of arrogance come from? I guess it’s easy when you can use power and privilege to avoid getting shot at yourselves, as these bastards did when they were of military age.
canuckistani
If the point of the surge is to buy time for the political pieces in Iraq to fall into place, and the government is being boycotted by the Sunnis and the secularists, then it doesn’t really matter if the surge is working or not, does it?
scarshapedstar
175 dead, 200 wounded.
glasnost
What, exactly, is an “al Qaeda style” attack?
John, you’ve been suckered. When someone says “Al-Quieda style attacks in Iraq have fallen”, they’re saying it because they can’t say “attacks in Iraq have fallen” – because attacks in Iraq have not fallen. So they make up a category called “Al-Quieda” style attacks” and manipulate the categorization of all the attacks to make it true.
Notice how they don’t absolutely specify “truck bombs are down”. Even that is misleading, if for example, truck bombs are down but mortar attacks are up, it’s not neccesarily indicative of “we’re winning”.
The game is being played against hair-splitters. It’s not even lying. But it’s manipulative.