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You are here: Home / Open Threads / Hurricane Dean

Reader Interactions

31Comments

  2. 2.

    Pb

    For the skinny on such things, I heartily recommend going to Dr. Jeff Masters’ WunderBlog:

    We’re fairly confident of the 1-2 day forecast, which has Dean headed west to west-northwest over the Central Caribbean, very close to Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, then into the Western Caribbean. After that, things become murkier. The latest 12Z runs of the NOGAPS, UKMET, GFS, and HWRF computer models all show Dean hitting the Yucatan Peninsula, and continuing on into the Gulf of Mexico towards a second landfall near or south of the Texas border. The HWRF run is slower, and does not take Dean to the coast at the end of its forecast period. The big outlier is the GFDL model, which now takes Dean northwest into central Louisiana. Which model is correct? The problem is that each model has a different solution for the behavior of an upper-level low pressure system expected to be over the Gulf of Mexico early next week. Which model should we trust?
    […]
    In conclusion, the official NHC forecast outperforms all the individual models, particularly at long ranges. Looking at the individual model plots can be helpful to determine the uncertainty in the forecast, but it’s tough to beat the NHC. In the case of Dean, where one model is an outlier from the rest, it is usually better to believe the consensus of the other models.

  3. 3.

    incontrolados

    All of the warnings and heads up have started here in Houston. Get your shit together this weekend! Only take the designated evacuation routes. Only leave when it’s your turn. If only people won’t panic like last time — we’ve got a good plan in place. I trust Mayor White.

    If it takes a turn after going over the Yucatan (if that’s where it goes) bad news for me and mine. My sis hopes it goes into a relatively unihabited part of Mexico. I hope it peters out in the Gulf and turns into some inconvenient rain.

  4. 4.

    incontrolados

    Don’t I feel like an idiot — I didn’t get it. And I somehow missed that comment by dan, too.

    Same thing happened to me the other day on Althouse. Must be my problem.

  5. 5.

    Keith

    “I trust Mayor White.”

    The same Bill White who told everyone to get out of Houston NOW when Rita was coming days in advance, which led to one of the worst traffic jams in history (I know several folks who spent 18+ hours going 150 miles to evacuate for what hit Houston relatively mildly)? I can say “BOO!” and the guy will shit his pants, pack up is family, and haul ass to San Antonio. He panicked over Katrina and as a leader, he freaked everyone else out. Tropical Storm Allison was the real bane of Houston.
    I hope, hope, hope that this one doesn’t get stronger and/or head north Houston-way (although given that the east side is the worst side of a hurricane, maybe it’s not a good though), but we have to play the cards dealt us. As for me, I’m filling up tomorrow to avoid the lines, and if doom comes, I’m hunkering down & hoping being 15 miles NW of downtown Houston & not in a flood plain, I’ll be relatively dry.

  6. 6.

    Slide

    shit, and I’m supposed to fly to Houston on Monday. I imagine I will be watching the news quite closely this weekend. The thought of being stuck in Texas for an extended period of time sends shivers up this New Yawker’s spine.

  7. 7.

    demkat620

    Hey John,

    Hope the hangovers’ not too bad this morning. Just wanted to say thanks for the quality snark lately. It’s been great. BTW, we are sending Swoop over this weekend to kick Steely McBeams ass. This should improve your mood somewhat.

    No. 5 looked pretty good last night.

  11. 11.

    Punchy

    Wow. The ‘cane is scheduled to hit Southern TX or Mexico, and the chick governor from LA just declared a state of emergency. For Louisiana. WTF?

    Under what precedent can one declare this 4-5 days ahead of something that has 0.01% chance of happening? Wow.

  13. 13.

    ThymeZone

    Time to get our Onion on:

    President Establishes Defense of Climate Act (DOCA)

    Announced today, DOCA (Defense of Climate Act) declares climate and weather, such as hurricanes, as Acts of God, and not subject to human intervention, prediction, judgement or criticism.

    The act will make it unlawful for citizens to directly criticize weather events or the government’s response to them. The act makes it unlawful to anticipate an Act of God under its Unreasonable Impersonation of a Deity provision.

  14. 14.

    demimondian

    In addition, the use of the term “heckuva” is hereby reserved for Presidentially authorized personnel only. In order to reduce the possibility of confusion, the Roman -goddess- demon Hecuba shall henceforth only be referred to by her alternate name “Hecate”.

  15. 15.

    Pb

    Punchy,

    See above–(only) one of the computer models actually did show Dean hitting Louisiana, but it isn’t showing that at the moment:

    Things are looking much brighter for Louisiana, as the GFDL model has come in line with all of the other models in predicting a landfall in Southern Texas or Northern Mexico. It now appears likely that Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula will knock Dean down a category or two before it can approach the Texas coast. The upper level low that was forecast by the GFDL to potentially steer Dean northwards appears to be weakening and moving westwards, out of the way of Dean. You can watch this upper level low on water vapor satellite loops. It is the counter-clockwise spinning region that has moved west off the Florida coast into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. If this low continues to weaken and move westwards, it will not be able to swing Dean northwestwards towards northeast Texas and Louisiana. If Dean does manage to catch up to the upper level low, the counter-clockwise circulation around the upper low will bring some south-to-north winds over Dean that would steer it on a more northerly track into the Gulf of Mexico.

  16. 16.

    Pb

    An eyewall replacement cycle has started—that’s good news.

    Why do you think that’s good news, necessarily?

  17. 17.

    demimondian

    Why do you think that’s good news, necessarily?

    Tropical cyclones basically run on conservation of angular momentum, and, as a consequence, the closer to the center of the storm the eyewall is, the faster the winds near it are. When a replacement cycle takes place, the maximum sustained winds of the storm drop precipitously.

    That may not help Cancun — the Gulf has a lot of heat stored in it, and the storm is likely to strengthen again — but it will, at the very least, protect the Caribbean islands in Dean’s path.

  18. 18.

    Tsulagi

    My wife and our two kids flew into San Juan, PR yesterday afternoon. Hooked up with her mom and sister who arrived near the same time then Sunday evening they’re going to start a week cruise.

    Almost called off the trip as we watched Dean’s progress, but since mom and the sis who live in other countries haven’t seen the kids in almost two years, plus Dean looked like it was going to stay south of PR, went ahead. Was still pretty worried.

    But talked to her last night and she said they all had dinner at an outdoor café. No rain, and only a brisk breeze that helped with the 80+ temp. Lot of people out in the streets partying. Sounded pretty nice. And nice to know that unless it does a U turn, the kids are in more danger from an estrogen fest than Dean.

    Looks like Cancun and Cozumel could get tagged hard, though.

  19. 19.

    Pb

    demimondian,

    Well I don’t know about ‘precipitously’; in this case, it is expected to drop a bit, temporarily, but eyewall replacement cycles can increase the size of the storm, and is also associated with the rapid intensification cycle:

    One of the most difficult intensity change types to forecast is the rapid intensification cycle, which is responsible for producing most of the major hurricanes. Occasionally associated with rapid intensification is the eyewall replacement cycle, which occurs when the principal rainbands that generally spiral radially outward from the eye propagate inward to form a secondary concentric eyewall around the original eyewall. This secondary eyewall eventually dominates the moist static energy and chokes off the moist radial inflow to the inner eyewall. The inner eyewall then collapses, and the outer eyewall replaces the old inner eyewall during which storm intensity changes rapidly.

    More on that here as well; but you’re right in that this could be good news for wherever Dean passes over during the eyewall replacement cycle, or at least less bad news than it potentially otherwise could have been. In the long run, though? Who knows–it could end up being very bad news for somewhere else.

  20. 20.

    demimondian

    Pb —

    In fact, the cycle is complete, as of the most recent hurricane hunter flight, and the top winds have fallen to 141 from 150+.

  21. 21.

    Punchy

    top winds have fallen to 141 from 150+.

    That’s like saying she was only 250 lbs, not 270.

  22. 22.

    ThymeZone

    Please send for my informative booklet, “Moist Adiabatic Lapse Rates — and Other Life of the Party Stories”

    Just $19.95 plus S&H.

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  23. 23.

    demimondian

    TZ — I am interested in your theories, and would like to subscribe to your newsletter.

    demi “isothermal” mondian

  24. 24.

    Tsulagi

    That’s like saying she was only 250 lbs, not 270.

    That’s funny. But hey, if you were about to become a bottom like Cancun might, every little pound lighter would be appreciated.

  26. 26.

    Pb

    In fact, the cycle is complete, as of the most recent hurricane hunter flight, and the top winds have fallen to 141 from 150+.

    Where’d you see that, the last I heard, max sustained winds were at 150mph…

  27. 27.

    Punchy

    Can we PLEEEEEEEEEEEASE get a ‘cane to take out Arkansas?

    Seriously, it’s a third-world country. Let’s raze it and start over.

  28. 28.

    demimondian

    Sorry, it’s aged off wunderground, but the 17Z fly-through hit all four quadrants of the eyewall.

  29. 29.

    Lit3Bolt

    I feel like a ghoul tracking these hurricanes. I remember I did it during Andrew when it hit Miami and later the Gulf States, and years later during Katrina, I remember thinking, “Oh crap. New Orleans is gonna get messed up, hard. This is crazy. A lot of people are going to die.”

    I was in Cancun 5 months after Wilma. They were still rebuilding. I wonder if there’s going to be a Spring Break destination left after this?

  30. 30.

    incontrolados

    Lit3Bolt — don’t feel that way. Even if you don’t live anywhere near where a hurricane could hit — it’s fairly normal for those of us who do, so I wouldn’t hold it against ya ;)

    While most of the local weathercaster types here in Houston are fairly sane, there is one that gets practically giddy at the idea of hurricanes in the Gulf. He’s a real nutter (IMHO).

  31. 31.

    BIRDZILLA

    Like with HURRICANE KATRINA AL GORE and the wackos for GREENPEACE will blame this on GLOBAL WARMING knowing how idiotic they can get

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