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You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / Pakistan Open Thread

Pakistan Open Thread

by John Cole|  November 4, 200711:52 am| 33 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs

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I also have been very derelict in my reading regarding the apparent Pakistani meltdown. I am really not sure what is going on, reports are coming fast and furious, and I really have not found a resource which I think adequately covers the issue. What actually is going on? Does anyone have a good, reputable source to provide information and analysis?

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33Comments

  1. 1.

    demimondian

    November 4, 2007 at 12:04 pm

    Well, it certainly isn’t the Cato Institute, which is currently sponsoring your site.

    The answer is really quite simple: Gen. Musharrif, threatened by a possible election of a real government, has chosen to retain power through authoritarian means. The Bush administration, which allowed him to develop nuclear weapons, is now confronted with the very real possibility that Pakistan will be taken over by Islamists, which will realize Musharrif’s original threat of developing an “Islamic Bomb”, and will finally create the truly apocalyptic enemy that they’re been fantasizing about since 9/11.

    Whether that will serve as the final pretext for an authoritarian take-over in this country is a question best left to scholars.

  2. 2.

    Dennis-SGMM

    November 4, 2007 at 12:04 pm

    Juan Cole has a good run down on the situation in Pakistan as well as some good links, one to Barnett Rubin, who has been live-blogging from Pakistan.

  3. 3.

    sevenleagueboots

    November 4, 2007 at 12:05 pm

    What actually is going on?

    1. Informed Comment by Juan Cole (daily>6am)
    http://www.juancole.com/
    2. Barnett Rubin’s live blogging from Pakistan
    Informed Comment: Global Affairs
    http://icga.blogspot.com/

    s

  4. 4.

    crayz

    November 4, 2007 at 12:10 pm

    geo.tv is (I believe) a pakistani news source, posting online news bulletins fairly frequently

  5. 5.

    Wilfred

    November 4, 2007 at 12:13 pm

    Go here: http://www.turcopolier.typepad.com/

    Scroll down till you see “Pakistan on the Brink” FB Ali. The author is a retired Brigadier in the Pakistani Army. Comments are worthwhile also.

  6. 6.

    Andrew

    November 4, 2007 at 12:19 pm

    I think that the solution to the crisis in Pakistan is obvious: Tom Brady to Randy Moss.

  7. 7.

    capelza

    November 4, 2007 at 12:31 pm

    Demi..as much as I despise Bush…Pakistan was going for nuclear weapons in the early 70’s under Bhutto the father.

    They has acquired enough material to make a bomd in the late 80’s and actually set one off in the late 90’s.

    As for what’s going on right now…I am very confused. That’s the honest truth.

  8. 8.

    demimondian

    November 4, 2007 at 12:40 pm

    Hush, Capelza — I know all that. I’m just trying to anticipate the “Clintoon did it firsters”…because, for once, they’re going to be right.

    To be fair, Bush the Father oversaw – and overlooked – the emergence of Pakistan as a nuclear power. I think he viewed it as a useful counterbalance to a nuclear-armed India. AK Khan is all Clinton’s, all the time, and is probably most responsible for the rise of DPRK as a nuclear power.

  9. 9.

    Dennis-SGMM

    November 4, 2007 at 12:40 pm

    Here’s a Direct Link to FB Ali’s “Pakistan on the Brink,” mentioned above by Wilfred. It requires Microsoft Word. If you don’t have Word then you can Google “Pakistan on the Brink” and select “View as HTML.”

    It’s well worth reading. Thanks, Wilfred, for pointing out “Pakistan on the Brink.”

  10. 10.

    capelza

    November 4, 2007 at 12:50 pm

    Whoops sorry Demi..didn’t mean to blow your cunning plan.

    Actually Pakistan has been moving right along on the nuclear thing under Nixon, Ford, Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, and Bush…

    It’s the craziness of freaking out about Iran probably getting the bomb (we must bomb them!!!!) when a much less stable nation like Pakistan already has the capability to hand the damn things out like candy (see Khan..I agree).

    I really do feel like I am living in a crazy country right now..and that’s not just “liberal paranoia”.

  11. 11.

    demimondian

    November 4, 2007 at 12:52 pm

    Yes, but…it was only in the late eighties that Pakistan started acquiring the minds to actually run a Manhattan project, and then a subsequent Teller/Ulam project. The raw materials are only half the story — building a working device is HARD.

  12. 12.

    The Other Steve

    November 4, 2007 at 12:56 pm

    The answer is really quite simple: Gen. Musharrif, threatened by a possible election of a real government, has chosen to retain power through authoritarian means.

    It seems to me that it’s the classic… old-school religious types against new-school business types. Musharaff is afraid to allow the old-school types control, because he wants to see the country modernize. But that’s not working, so he’s intent on forcing it.

  13. 13.

    capelza

    November 4, 2007 at 12:59 pm

    I am sure it is…Demi.

    But like arming the Mujahadeen in Afghanistan, we didn’t see the future ramifications.

    Yet, we pussy foot around them…and Bush wants to go to war with Iran because they might be getting one years from now, because like you say, it is HARD work.

  14. 14.

    jcricket

    November 4, 2007 at 1:11 pm

    Musharraf is attempting to to modernize Pakistan by turning it into a nuclear-armed Myanmar. Some great allies we have there.

    Look, the reality is that in “free and democratic” societies sometimes the populace votes to elect religious radicals (ahem). The answer to that isn’t stopping elections, suspending the constitution, rounding up the opposition, shutting down the judiciary and independent media.

    Musharraf’s religious opponents are bad, bad people, and I don’t support them one bit. But Pakistan also has a lot of fairly liberal business and academic types. I’m confident that if the country were actually a democracy, and we went back to applying diplomatic/economic pressure or incentives (takes a long time, but it works), it would work out ok in the end.

  15. 15.

    Wilfred

    November 4, 2007 at 1:23 pm

    I happen to know quite a lot about this because I once spent a lot of time in the NWFP, back when a man could travel all the way from Madyan in Swat Valley to the very end of the Malakand Agency and into the tribal territories and never have one problem, as long as he showed respect for people and their way of life.

    No one can ever consider the possibility, let alone attempt it, but it might not be a bad idea to listen to what everybody has to say, including Pashtun tribesmen. There weren’t many extremists up there 15 years ago, but how many people do you think have been radicalized by whatever Musharraf’s henchmen and our own people have been doing? Who do you think gets waterboarded and rendered to secret prisons? Lots of chickens coming home to roost.

  16. 16.

    jake

    November 4, 2007 at 1:43 pm

    Does anyone have a good, reputable source to provide information and analysis?

    Look up Cluster Fuck in any dictionary of slang.

  17. 17.

    MNPundit

    November 4, 2007 at 1:54 pm

    Musharraf’s religious opponents are bad, bad people, and I don’t support them one bit. But Pakistan also has a lot of fairly liberal business and academic types. I’m confident that if the country were actually a democracy, and we went back to applying diplomatic/economic pressure or incentives (takes a long time, but it works), it would work out ok in the end.

    Ah, but who would they sell bombs to in the meantime?

  18. 18.

    Dennis-SGMM

    November 4, 2007 at 2:18 pm

    No one can ever consider the possibility, let alone attempt it, but it might not be a bad idea to listen to what everybody has to say, including Pashtun tribesmen.

    America, listen to the locals? Perish forbid! We might just find out that they want to create their own history – and where would that leave us?

    Next you’ll be saying that overthrowing democratically elected governments, propping up dictatorships, and arming really bad people for use as proxies might have negative consequences.

    A quick review:
    Hamas elected to power in the Gaza Strip.
    Hizbollah ascendant in Southern Lebanon.
    Failed state in Iraq.
    Failed state in Afghanistan.
    Pakistan one bullet from chaos.
    Incipient Turkish invasion of Iraqi Kurdistan.

    Things are going just fine without all that listening.

  19. 19.

    t. jasper parnel

    November 4, 2007 at 2:21 pm

    http://icga.blogspot.com/search/label/Barnett%20Rubin
    Apparently in Pakistan.

  20. 20.

    Ron

    November 4, 2007 at 6:36 pm

    Abu Aardvark, otherwise known as Marc Lynch, can be very good for inside baseball in the Mideast.

  21. 21.

    The Other Steve

    November 4, 2007 at 7:06 pm

    Look, the reality is that in “free and democratic” societies sometimes the populace votes to elect religious radicals (ahem). The answer to that isn’t stopping elections, suspending the constitution, rounding up the opposition, shutting down the judiciary and independent media.

    Which just proves that you cannot have democracy without free market capitalism first.

    That seems to be the real problem with many of these countries.

  22. 22.

    kirkaracha

    November 4, 2007 at 7:38 pm

    Where the Jihad Lives Now: “Islamic militants have spread beyond their tribal bases, and have the run of an unstable, nuclear-armed nation.”

  23. 23.

    kirkaracha

    November 4, 2007 at 7:38 pm

    After Musharraf: “What the future holds for Pakistan–and for America.” Interview with the author.

  24. 24.

    Heywood Jablomy

    November 4, 2007 at 9:16 pm

    How come none of this came up during Islamofascist Awareness Weekend?

    Oh that’s right — Musharraf is our Islamofascist.

  25. 25.

    Heywood Jablomy

    November 4, 2007 at 9:31 pm

    I’m keen on some links to wingnut commentary on how the situation in Pakistan:

    a) cements george bush’s reputation as a genius in middle east democracy building.

    b) in no way parallels the way in which cheney-addington-bush have usurped the Constitution and created hocus-pocus emergency powers to get around warrants, habeus corpus, prohibitions on torture, etc. etc. …

    little help … ?

  26. 26.

    Mr. Sifter

    November 4, 2007 at 9:38 pm

    The US is so unpopular in Pakistan right now that us actively helping the opposition would strengthen Musharraf. Further, as we have learned in Iraq, those opposing dictators are not necessarily angels. More often then not, those whose seize power are also seized by the power in nations with weak democratic institutions. And, as we learned in Iraq, were not so good at helping to build these institutions in the Islamic world.

  27. 27.

    nightjar

    November 4, 2007 at 10:09 pm

    As expected wingnuts praise Musharraf in his brave battle against Islamofacsim where the rule of law gets in the way of a well meaning dictator just trying save his country by destroying it’s democratic institutions.

    From Flopping Asses

    Musharraf believes that the judiciary is overrun with militant Islamists who have gotten in the way of his war against them, and really, with all the fighting going on who can blame him? Now the question is was this threat by the judiciary real, or something made up so he could stay in power?

    I believe the threat is real and he took the only action available to him.

    There’s more. From Powerlie

    I am inclined to believe that Musharraf does intend to bring modernity, including a viable democracy, to Pakistan. If the current measures enable the government to fight the extremists more effectively–a big “if”–the sacrifices they entail will be worthwhile. We can be sure that if the Taliban and similar groups succeed in seizing power in Pakistan, the consequences will be infinitely worse and far more prolonged.

    One mans dictator, another mans Islamofascist slayer, I guess.

    And from Malkin, seemingly in a rare spasm of sanity. Her posting of Musharraf’s speech. Ok. Maybe not quite sanity.

    In a reference which will anger his American allies, he compared himself to Abraham Lincoln, citing the latter’s suspension of habeas corpus and other fundamental rights during the American civil war to save his nation.

    Musharraf as Uncle Abe.

    Stranger than fiction

  28. 28.

    Heywood Jablomy

    November 4, 2007 at 10:57 pm

    Thanks Jar. It’s comedy gold I tell you. Gold!

    If I could just write that stuff and get linked to Malkin … *sigh* … I’d never have to mooch a Cheeto again.

    All seriosity aside, just when I thought we had World War IV under control, Musharraf goes and launches WW V.

    Given that Pakistan has nukes and other WMD, under the Grand Unified Theory of Wingbattian Globalism, aren’t we supposed to invade them, or bomb them, or waterboard them, or something?

    Sign me,

    Flummoxed in Flabtown.

  29. 29.

    nightjar

    November 5, 2007 at 12:15 am

    Update from The Corner

    The State Department response — calling for immediate free elections — is idiotic. Break down Pakistan’s instability into just some of its component parts — Islamist militancy, tribal unrest, deep-seated ethnic separatism, feudal oppression, sectarian hatred, an incompetent and corrupt ruling elite, an ill-educated population, a paranoid and conspiratorial culture — and it’s far from clear that dictatorship is the disease or elections the cure.

    Elections for Iraq but not Pakistan = wingnut logic on Acid.
    [or we heart our friendly dictator Musharraf

  30. 30.

    chopper

    November 5, 2007 at 5:41 am

    As expected wingnuts praise Musharraf in his brave battle against Islamofacsim where the rule of law gets in the way of a well meaning dictator just trying save his country by destroying it’s democratic institutions.

    yet hussein the secular dictator keeping ‘islamofascism’ in check was worse than hitler.

  31. 31.

    Randolph Fritz

    November 5, 2007 at 11:59 am

    Juan Cole’s already been mentioned. The Guardian is not bad. And of course Al-Jazeera and Al-Arabiya are regional, though rather the way the NY Times is regional for Canada.

  32. 32.

    Tony J

    November 5, 2007 at 2:46 pm

    It’s funny that the Wingnuts have gone with the “Musharaf must be doing this to stop Islamist nutjobs taking over the country, so it’s ok” meme because, if you look at who he’s actually going after, it’s the Supreme Court and the non-Islamist Opposition.

    In short, Musharaf has staged a second military coup because he thought he’d either be prevented by the Supreme Court from running for Election while still in charge of the army, or he thought he would lose out to an Opposition candidate if he did get to run.

    I guess someone was interested in winning the Islamofascist Week Award for outstanding Denial of Democracy after all. But he’ll have to be happy with a Medal of Freedom like everyone else.

  33. 33.

    Renko

    November 5, 2007 at 2:54 pm

    Asia Times (Atimes.com) out of Hong Kong is fairly reliable, particularly for regional analysis only a day or two behind the news.

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