Rudy Giuliani loves to give the impression that he is tough on crime and that he is responsible for the decrease in crime in New York City while he was mayor. Well, it’s possible that some of the cosmetic changes he made to the city reduced crime a little bit! But I think this is the best explanation, and I only bring it up because I’m not sure if you all have heard it before**
The theoretical justification for our argument rests on two simple assumptions: 1) Legalized abortion leads to fewer “unwanted” babies being born, and 2) unwanted babies are more likely to suffer abuse and neglect and are therefore at an increased risk for criminal involvement later in life. The first assumption, that abortion reduces the number of unwanted children, is true virtually by definition. The second assumption, that unwanted children are at increased risk for criminal involvement, is supported by three decades of academic research. If one accepts these two assumptions, then a direct mechanism by which the legalization of abortion can reduce crime has been established. At that point, the question merely becomes: Is the magnitude of the impact large or small?
Our preliminary research suggests that the effect of abortion legalization is large.
Read it all if you haven’t before. For those of you who have read Freakonomics, this is old news, of course. But I wish someone would bring this up. It’s be political suicide, but it would be funny and it’d be a lot of fun to watch the Righties squirm- and maybe the Dems, too!! After all, abortion has caused a glut of lettuce pickers, dontcha know.
**So far, I have to say that I don’t think there is anything that the collective hive here hasn’t heard before, but you never know! I filed this under “Politics” because there was no “John Cole Loves Abortion” category.
demimondian
Actually, the abortion reduces crime thesis has been pretty well debunked, for two reasons. First, abortion rates appear to be largely independent of the legality of the procedure worldwide, so there’s no evidence that the actual aboriton rate fell after Roe v. Wade. Second, there are a number of places where abortion remained illegal, yet where crime rates fell markedly.
I personally find the complementary explanation of the elimination of lead in paint as a far more compelling one. It explains the reduction pattern more precisely, and it make sense neurologically.
ImJohnGalt
Just waiting for Paul L. to come on and say, “That’s all Bill Bennett really said. Doesn’t seem like such a big deal now, does it?”
Michael D.
demimondian
Hey thanks for that. It never occurred to me. Very interesting! But damn! Now I have more reading to do! :-)
SpotWeld
Did the elimination of lead in paint also happen around the same time and the reduction in the use leaded gas?
Dug Jay
As one who maintained a home in New York City in the periods before and during Giuliani’s terms as mayor, I can attest to the very substantial reductions in crime and general improvements in the cleanliness of the city, streets, etc. If however, as you suggest, abortions among those parts of society that feed crime was the major factor, rather than other factors reflecting the consensus views of experts, then let’s really get serious about reducing crime. Maybe society should just start sterilizing any and all individuals whose genetic and other dispositive indicators suggest the liklihood of producing progeny predisposed to “lives of crime.”
capelza
Oh that Huckabee…we killed off our own underclass, so we have to import them…does he realise that is what he was basially saying?
Kevin Mc
It wasn’t lead paint as the new theory, but the banning of leaded gasoline. I too thought it was interesting.
http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2007/07/get-the-lead-ou.html
Zifnab
You are going to have to link on that. As far as I’ve seen, your first point is actually countered in the Freakonomics book, detailing Romania in the 40s and 50s when abortion was made illegal and the revolution that criminalizing abortion (and virtually mandating pregnancy) sparked. Your second point assumes a single-cause environment. Certainly, crime rates may be reduced by any number of means. For instance, areas of the Middle East have remarkably low petty theft rates and it is largely attributed to the “we cut off your hands” punishment model. Introducing youth centers and increased police presence to neighborhoods have been shown to decrease crime rates as well.
But it is worth noting that state-by-state, after 1976, abortion-friendly states watched their crime rates drop precipitously some 16-18 years later while abortion-hostile states did not.
demimondian
Zifnab — one word: Ireland.
Sirkowski
In before shit storm and accusations of eugenics. Reality scares feeble minds. The wingnut’s version of life is only scared before birth.
Giuliani’s job was to pick up the garbage and fill pot holes. He’s in no position to brag about.
Zifnab
That’s not a link. It’s a country. Unless you’re alluding to a modest proposal, in which case, no I don’t really see anything wrong with eating the babies after you abort them.
p mac
So which is it: Clintonomics, Abortion, or Leaded Gasoline?
The trouble with this explanation is that essentially the same statistical analysis holds for the effects of leaded gasoline on crime. And people make the same arguments about correlation with the unemployment rate. It’s all good!
The Other Steve
This is remarkably similar to the arguments for concealed carry laws. They kept claiming statistics shows more guns reduce crime.
But when you look at the facts, crime also reduced where there were no changes in gun laws.
The lead factor is still interesting to me, and I think should be further studied and understood.
Salty Party Snax
Obviously Rudy is not the kind of woman who would throw her life away on raising childeren..
http://www.perrspectives.com/images/rudy_drag.jpg
Pooh
I’m not sure “debunked” is accurate with regards to the Freakonomics argument. However Leavitt himself is not nearly so expansive in his claims as to the magnitude of the effect of legalization as this post makes it sound.
Personally, the most compelling hypothesis re: NYC crime rates is the generally awesome economy during Rudy’s mayoral tenure.
Pete Abel
I’m not in position to dispute the points re: legalized abortion, but I do know a former, long-time NYC cop who claims that it was something else all together. Namely, either the commissioner or chief (can’t remember which position) who transferred to take over NYC police forces from Boston, who was responsible for the real clean-up. Worse, Rudy’s ego was so big, he grew tired of that guy getting all the credit and pushed him out. Wish I could remember all the names involved here, but I think the basics are accurate. My source is remarkably non-biased on apolitical.
Zifnab
But does an awesome economy correlate with decreasing crime? Certainly a decrease in unemployment rates in turn decreases crime. Idle hands and all of that. But a booming economy doesn’t always need to indicate booming employment.
clone12
I don’t know why anyone should find this link surprising- any woman who voluntarily want to have an abortion aren’t exactly the doting mom types at that point in time.
Notorious P.A.T.
But does an awesome economy correlate with decreasing crime? Certainly a decrease in unemployment rates in turn decreases crime. Idle hands and all of that. But a booming economy doesn’t always need to indicate booming employment.
Well, the Clinton years *did* create 22 million jobs. Compared to Bush’s first term which saw a net creation of. . . 136,000 jobs.
Let’s all keep the main point in mind: crime went down everywhere during the 90s, not just in Giuliani town. Rudy is full of it.
Incertus (Brian)
Freakonomics didn’t attribute the drop in the crime rate just to legalized abortion, though it’s often spun that way. The author says it’s one of several factors, one of which was additional cops on the streets (which were put there as part of Clinton’s crime bill). The economy had a little something to do with it as well, but the abortion section gets all the press, and it’s all that anyone remembers.
Nylund
Crime is also particular to certain age groups. Most crime isn’t committed by 70 year olds or 70 year olds. Its usually done in your teens, 20’s and 30’s. Also, after World War II, there was the baby boom which created a hump in our age demographics.
For a few decades a larger part of the US population was of the “criminal” age. This led to higher crime rates. Then, they got old and there were less “criminal” aged people to replace them so crime rates went down.
I also remember him running around on the street on 9/11 because he was stupid enough to put his emergency command center in one of the top targets in the city.
lets just say, I don’t think Rudy has ever had his priorities straight.
The baby boomers aren’t just going to affect things when they retire, they’ve been affecting things at all ages.
I too lived under guiliani in NYC. I remember the raids into bars where the bar would lose its liquor license if they didn’t have a Caberet (ie dancing) license and more than two people were “moving in a rhythmic fashion”. I remember the panicked shutting off of music and bar owner screams to “stop moving to the music!” as cops pushed their way in. It was ridiculous.
I also remember how Kokie’s Place in Brooklyn (which blatantly sold cocaine at the bar) stayed open with impunity. Rumor has it that the owner’s brother was a friend of Rudy. It closed down when Bloomberg took over.
srv
Did the Irish have lead paint? If not, and their crime rate dropped, WTF?
Elvis Elvisberg
See, this is why it would be fun to be a billionaire.
In 2004, I wanted to start a group called “Republicans for al Qaeda” who would run pro-Bush ads on the grounds that he had greatly strengthened al Qaeda. Wouldn’t it be great to run ads in Iowa from the “Abortionists for Rudy” group, explaining how he owed his career to his support of abortion rights, and the positive benefits of abortion?
demimondian
Zif, you’re being a jerk, you know. :)
Here’s a link in PDF form; here’s the same link translated into HTML by our helpful friends at a large search engine and advertisement provision company.
demimondian
Oh, and here is Levitt himself talking about the issue.
rilkefan
The Other Andrew
I personally think that crime has gone down because of video games–they’re the perfect socially-acceptable outlet for all sorts of questionable urges! If I feel like driving around like a maniac and pimp-slapping those who oppose me, I can just turn on Grand Theft Auto.
I’m convinced that if we could’ve gotten Bush into a good long-term war sim in the late ’90s, we wouldn’t be in Iraq, right now. Consequence-less trial and error. “Okay, invading didn’t work, nuking didn’t work…I’m gonna just build a lot of parks and stadiums and hope for the best.”
dbrown
Lead in paint!? No, the study was about lead removal from gasoline (and how children breathed it and it got into their system). As for the abortion point, that is correlated and the most likely the main cause in crime – the lead removal was too late to cause the bulk of the improvement during the time frame of that study – note time of Roe vs. wade (1973) and removal of lead from gas was about/around 1983 – 85; thn add a generation (18 – 22 years). A Regan appointee at EPA was horrified by the Pb levels in inner city children and did something about it! Go figure?
Dreggas
Gotta be honest, I agree here snark aside. Simply put I de-stress by beating the hell out of pixels on a screen, there are far worse ways I could do so.
JWW
Michael,
I’m slow, what is you “exact” point? Is Rudy feeding us a bucket of shit?
Dreggas
Of course he is. Just like how he says he had to use “enhanced interrogation” methods on mobsters (ie waterboarding) and he has mor foreign policy experience than Dodd who is on the foreign policy committee’s.
He’s a fucking cockroach, always has been always will be and NYers know it.
Tim F.
Anybody who thinks Giuliani doesn’t lie like he breathes needs to read more. Love him or hate him but at least don’t deny reality.
JWW
Hey Dreggas,
What did change change the streets of NYC? Are you a New York resident?
Xanthippas
Ha.
SpotWeld
Knowing that reality is never as simple as it seems. It’s always possible they’re both right, or both wrong?
Perhaps a bunch of various conditions “primed” the population for a reduction in crime, and the initiatives that Giuliani just took advantage of those conditions (intentionally or accidentally.) Luck favors the prepared mind and so forth.
teh
It feels silly to pile on that book again after all these years…
But doesn’t their hypothesis rely on just ignoring a huge rise in crime at the end of the 1980’s by attributing it to the “crack epidemic”?
ImJohnGalt
“A strange game. The only winning move is not to play. How about a nice game of chess?.”
jake
You might also want to check out The Tipping Point (M. Gladwell).
From Chapter Four – The Power of Context (Part One) Bernie Goetz and the rise and fall of New York City crime
Gladwell goes on to write about the use of the Broken Windows theory to drastically reduce crime in the NYC subway system. The TA took steps to eradicate graffiti on the trains and fare beating. Arresting people who jumped the turnstiles allowed the cops to nab a lot of people who had warrants, etc. When the head of TA police became head of NYCPD he did the same thing: He focused on the minor crimes – “window cleaners”, public urination and intoxication and the major crimes dropped off.
Was it William Bratton?
Leisureguy
I did a post (with a link) on the lead abatement theory of why crime dropped. The study seems quite convincing, looking at many instances and countries.
grumpy realist
For coverage of Giuliani and how a certain percentage of NYC people view him, head over to the Group News Blog and read LM’s posts. It gives very good background to some of the present stuff coming out against Giuliani.
Basically the guy is an authoritarian whackjob who has an ego the size of the solar system and is damn incompetent, to boot.