Reid Wilson, via Larison:
Four-term moderate Republican Rep. Mike Ferguson will announce he will not seek re-election, PolitickerNJ reports, opening another seat for Democrats to target and Republicans to lose sleep over. Ferguson, who is just 37 years old, will say he prefers to spend more time with his young children.
[…] A [Tom] Kean bid would be the GOP’s best hope in keeping a district that gave President Bush just a 3,000-vote margin over Al Gore in 2000, and a wider 6-point edge in 2004. Still, the loss of a seasoned campaigner like Ferguson is another blow to the NRCC, which can’t take much more punishment these days.
The NRCC, which coordinates fundraising for GOP Congressional races, faces a retirement deficit of historic proportions and currently has a negative account balance to work with. Then there’s the weird way that America’s public restrooms seem designed to drag good Republicans into all manner of embarrassing sex acts. Contra Wilson, even barring another Foley scandal I bet that these guys can take plenty more punishment before the ’08 election winds to a close. However tempting it must seem right now, they can’t exactly give up and go home.
Naturally it couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch of guys.
Zifnab
Watching a major political party implode right before my eyes is both fun and educational.
r€nato
I predict a bull market in schadenfreude for 2008.
OxyCon
It’s the 4 day work week Pelosi imposed on the House.
The Repubs are a bunch of slackers and they can’t handle working more than 3 days a week.
The idiot Congressman from Georgia, Jack Kingston, even said so.
wasabi gasp
Cut and run, mofo! Cut and run!
r€nato
C’mon, cut them some slack. They needed Monday off to take bribes so they could know what legislation to vote for Tuesday through Thursday, and Friday off in order to have long enough layovers to have hot mansex in airport restroom stalls.
RSA
Who will be the first wingnut to claim that this presents a historic opportunity, a clearing out of RINOs, so that true (movement) conservatives can take over Congress in a landslide? Or is that just too divorced from reality?
ThymeZone
It’s a well established fact that throwing in a towel is a signal for homosexual sex.
S.W. Anderson
Kudos to r€nato for outstanding achievement in the political snark category. Best chuckle of the day.
Even so, it’s dangerous to assume that those who so completely deserve to be whipped like they’ve never been whipped before will actually get what’s coming to them. They managed to defy political gravity in 2004, thanks in large part to fat cats stoking them with $200 million.
IMO, the most encouraging sign of ’07 looking toward ’08 is that Republicans aren’t bringing in the big bucks in the manner to which they’ve become accustomed. But don’t kid yourselves; that can change overnight.
Psycheout
I assuming you’re whining about this:
Oh no, a man who has served the public for four terms wants to spend time with his family? Oh noes!
I know liberals can’t understand the value of the family, but I frankly don’t know why you get so worked up over people who do.
D-Chance.
Isn’t it amazing, how spending time with the family SUDDENLY becomes important when one is in imminent danger of being voted out or otherwise removed from office?
Ol’ Fergie didn’t give two shits about the family after that first, second, or third term, did he, Psyche?
Jen
Yeah, I’m pretty convinced Karl Rove left to spend more time with his family too….his only son….who was leaving for college…
It’s the most transparent cover ever for wanting to avoid a thumpin’.
Dreggas
If I ever meet you I owe you a beer. You said you were in Phoenix right?
jcricket
“Leaving to spend time with his family” is Republican whistle-speak for “get on the lobbyist teat before the voters throw me out and I’m not attractive to K street anymore”
jcricket
And BTW Tim – This is obviously good for Republicans.
Republicans resigning in swing districts? Good for Republicans
Bush ratings in the toilet? Nowhere to go but up! Good for Republicans
Iraq fucked? Good for Republicans
Economy bad? Good for Republicans
Economy good? Good for Republicans
Democrats nominate Hillary? Good for Republicans
Democrats nominate Obama? Good for Republicans
My head hurtz.
The Other Steve
Damnit! The Sex-traffickers in Minnesota have won!
Paulose resigns
Damn you Scott Beauchamp!
jake
Am I the only one who thinks “What did this one do?” upon hearing about a Republican who plans to retire?
I’m still expecting some hot n’ heavy shit to come out about Denny’s Hastert.
It’s the fumes from the urinal cakes. It has a strange effect, but only on 110% heterosexual, man-tastic, Christian, stud types. In fact, guys who can use a public toilet without being overcome with the urge to grab the nearest restroom patron and have at it are a threat to our nation’s moral fiber.
jcricket
Allen (interracial bathroom gay prostitute blowjob requestor) in Florida resigned recently (after being found guilty of solicitation).
Do you like that it takes $75 million to investigate one Democratic politician’s blowjob (heterosexual, no-less), but the Republicans pretty much get found guilty for free :-)
jcricket
Really, TOS, that’s not a complete version of the events. It’s the racist, McCarthyist, misogynistic, Christian-hating sex-trafficers that have won here (at least according to Palouse).
The plain old sex-traffickers don’t hang out with that crowd. Too rough.
jake
Someone needs to make up a chart so we can keep all of the Republican sex scandals straight.
As it were.
See? Democrats always make a huge fuss and waste the tax-payers’ money like there’s no tomorrow! Maybe that can be a new motto for the Republicans:
GOP: We’re cheap and we go down quietly.
yet another jeff
Melts in your mouth, not in your hands?
r€nato
dreggas may owe me a beer but you nearly owed me a new monitor.
Incertus (Brian)
I’m guessing Malkin. And I don’t know if you can get more divorced from reality than movement conservatives–they’re like Rudy Giuliani divorced–multiple times and ugly every time.
scarshapedstar
I really hope this guy isn’t driving around in a windowless van as we speak…
Anne Laurie
it takes $75 million to investigate one Democratic politician’s blowjob (heterosexual, no-less), but the Republicans pretty much get found guilty for free
“Free”? Bob Allen worked hard for the twenty he offered that cop for a bj, ya librul!
Enlightened Layperson
I advise against counting your chickens till their hatched. Don’t forget that in 1991, after winning the first Gulf War, Bush Sr. was considered unbeatable. And we all know how that ended up. I still maintain that if Bush Jr. has any sense at all he will proclaim victory in Iraq, bring home the troops to highly publicized ticker tape parades, and see Republican fortures go up again.
Geoduck
The problem with that, EL, is that Bush Jr. doesn’t give a squat about anyone but himself, and that definitely includes his fellow Republicans.
I personally suspect that so many GOPers are bailing because they know how bad things are going to get, and don’t want to be the ones in office when it all comes crashing home.
superdestroyer
The real question is what will the U.S. be like as a one party state. How will politics function when the Democratic primary is the only relevant election. Will the former Republicans moderate the Democratic Primary when they start voting in it? How will redistricting occur when there is only one relevant political party? What will presidential election be like when the apparent winner is selected 11 months before the inaugural.
Will the Democratic Party try to go things like closed primaries or eliminating initiatives in order to limit the power of non-core Democratic groups?
What will mid-terms elections be like if 300 or more members of Congress do not have an opponent?
Tim F.
Sure, and if George Bush was Ginger Rogers I’d dance with him.
4tehlulz
Has the NJ Dept of Children and Families been notified?
yet another jeff
Because the Dems are sooo out of the mainstream?
And “spend time with his family” is definitely code for “I don’t want to here when whatever happens next, happens” or “I’m just leaving, ok? I don’t want to talk about it.”
It could be that he’s been shoplifting or something else…or he’s just another rat jumping off the sinking ship.
Cyrus
I agree with Enlightened Layperson. Sure, Bush is dumber and more selfish than his father, and unfortunately the country is in worse shape now than it was in 1991. But Democrats are consistently spineless or at least disorganized, and Republicans still have a lot of money even if it’s not as much as they want or need, and they have incumbency and gerrymandering on their side in a lot of places, and there are still some Republican officeholders who haven’t charged with corruption or solicitation yet, and the media is still full of Broders and Russerts.
Watergate began in June 1972. Nixon resigned in August 1974. Reagan was elected in an unprecedented landslide just six years later. Never underestimate the electorates’ ability to forgive, if by “forgive,” you mean “ignore the fact that these are the same guys who screwed the country just eight years ago.”
Hopefully, not as badly as it functioned from 2002 to 2005, when people were saying the same thing in the other direction.
bago
Well, considering the lowest of the rats (Snow, Gonzales, Rumsfeld, Miers, and Ashcroft) have already jumped ship…
jcricket
The cop was posing as a gay prostitute though, so I was just filling in the blanks.
Actually, that makes my point even better. While liberal scandals are fake and cost $75 million to investigate, because they’re so fake, conservative scandals actually pay for themselves. See, tax cuts do work! They invigorate the prostitution economy! Maybe the “Laffer curve” describes something different ;-)
jcricket
I think there’s a lot to this. When things are going poorly and people feel the need for protection and help inside the US, they turn to Democrats. Democrats work their way to solving at least some of the countries problems, things get better, at which point everyone says “thank you Democrats, I feel good enough that I deserve tax cuts, so I’m gonna vote Republican”.
It’s the circle of life, really. Falujjah Maccaca, or something like that.
Dems do a piss-poor job of explaining two things to the American public:
1) You already believe what the Dem party stands for (poll after poll, issue after issue, this is true)
2) It’s our policies that help you out. Republicans care about a narrow sliver of people at your expense.
If Dems could do better PR, Republicans would lose elections far and wide (outside the deep south) until they change their party platform.
fester
Tim — not wanting to be too much of a downer, but a quick point of fact on retirements. Historically there tends to be 30 to 40 retirements/cycle, 2006 was a little unusual in the few retirements that occurred. Right now the GOP is at 17 retirements, which is at or slightly above their party’s share of the historical norm. Nothing too unusual here.
The unusual thing is the dearth of Democratic ‘spend more time with my family/K-Street’ retirements. Right now there are 3 Dem retirements, and 2 are for Senate runs.
The GOP retirement probably will get to a ‘retirement deficit of historic proportions’ by this February/March as more info comes in and old or very vulnerable incumbents decide it is time to go fishing, but we are not there yet.
Tax Analyst
My sympathies to all those Republican families that will now have to spend more time with these guys. Isn’t that against some sort of Geneva Convention?
jcricket
Oh noes, my point is kapoot.
LarryB
This diary on TBOS may explain why so many repubs are rushing for the exits. It turns out that the “Permanent Republican Majority” was just another confidence game.
mrmobi
Well, S.W., it sure looks like the money is drying up. But you are correct, they may yet find a way to make this less of a disaster than it should be. There is always the possibility that a candidate may have a “Dean” moment also.
The media, of course, will help, from putting actual devil horns on an image of Hillary Clinton (not making this up, Tweety did just that!) to, well, whatever it takes.
I just can’t wait for more of those “gotcha” debate questions from Russert, et al! With questions like those, who needs questions about the, you know, issues?
Any bets we’ll see Rudy or St. McCain with horns? I think not.
jcricket
It doesn’t matter who the Dems nominate.
Obama will be painted as a terrorist-sympathizing white-person-hater.
* Clinton is a lesbian bitch
* Edwards? His hair’s too nice and he’s a lawyer
* Dodd? Old, white, near death (oh wait, that might backfire)
* Kucinich? UFO-lover, plus a cradle-robber.
Why don’t Dems get this? There is no candidate that can inoculate the Democrats against Republican negative ads, smears, and the medias acceptance of said smears.
Dems just need to get over the whole “it’s so unfair” thing, nominate someone who can be aggressive right back and play hardball.
If that’s Obama, Clinton, Edwards – fine. Doesn’t matter to me for this election. They each have advantages and disadvantages. My vote goes to whomever can hit back the hardest against Republicans.
TenguPhule
But only in the men’s bathroom.
yet another jeff
How quaint….