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You are here: Home / Politics / Live Blogging the Caucuses

Live Blogging the Caucuses

by Michael D.|  January 3, 20088:28 pm| 119 Comments

This post is in: Politics

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For those of you who don’t have access to a television, I’ll keep you up to date on results till about 11pm EST.

Update XV: (10:00pm): I said I would go till 11, but it seems to have been called – Huckabee and Obama. Just want to say that I hope Mitt Romney goes completely broke during the primary season, and I hope he loses miserably.

Oh, and Edwards is slightly ahead of Clinton. w00T!

Update XIV: (9:52pm): Quote of the day from Donna Brazile (paraphrase):

African Americans have always lifted up Democrats. Now it’s time for Democrats to lift up an African American.

Fine by me!

Update XIII: (9:343pm): A commenter:

Clinton’s going to get ugggggly against Obama now.

I think that’s probably true, and it would be Clinton’s downfall. She needs to reach out to Obama supporters. Anything else would seem like “I’m the candidate that’s supposed to win!” It would turn off a lot of people. Obama is now completely viable. Hillary can no longer consider him anything less than a solid challenger. In fact, she now has to look at him as someone with whom she has to catch up.

Update XII: (9:37pm)
Just wondering. Can Edwards continue in the campaign with a second place finish here tonight?I am an Edwards supporter. Also, CNN is talking about the black guy who won in a white state. Pretty impressive if you think racism is still a huge issue. What does this say about race relations in America? For me? It seems pretty good.

Update XI: (9:28pm)
CNN projects Obama wins.

Update X: (9:21pm)
Please don’t let Howard Dean speak.

Update IX: (9:19pm)
Obama: 35%
Edwards: 31%
Clinton: 31%

Update IX: (9:15pm)
Okra and Tomato Stew:

3/4 pound of okra. Cut off the stem and the tip
1/2 large onion
14oz tomatoes
4 Tbsp Olive oil

Heat the olive oil and add the onions. Brown them. Add the okra and tomatoes. Simmer for 30-40 minutes and serve.

Update VIII: (9:13pm)
Anderson Cooper has it right on Romney. “The more money he spends. The more people get to know him. The less people like him.”

Update VII: (9:07pm)
Mike Duncan, RNC Chairperson: Doesn’t want to comment on anything. You know he’s seething. Beyond reality. He’s predicting a presidential victory and taking bac congress. Or am I on acid?

Update VI: (9:03pm)
Kucinich: 42%
Gravel: 20%
Richardson: 18%

Just kidding!

Update VI:
CNN is projecting that Huckabee is going to win in Iowa. Watch the GOP go batchit crazy(er than they already are)

Update V: 23% reporting (8:5pm)
Edwards: 33%
Clinton: 32%
Obama: 32%
richardson: 2% Ouch

Update IV: Publicans (8:45pm)
Huckabee: 33%
Romney: 17%
Thompson: 24%

Update III:I bought Zorbies as advertised on TV. Awesome. Just sayin’.

Update II: 10% reporting
Edwards: 34%
Clinton: 32%
Obama: 31%

Update: Bill Bennett is on CNN. I wonder who his money is on?

First results, via CNN:

Edwards: 42%
Clinton: 33%
Obama: 20 something.

Very early results. Nothing to draw any conclusions from. Updates will appear at the top. Not sure if John & Tim can update this post, but feel free to, obviously. I will be posting results only.

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Reader Interactions

119Comments

  1. 1.

    Cain

    January 3, 2008 at 8:38 pm

    I’ve been checking out:

    talking points memo

    Edwards with quite the lead, with 300 whatevers reporting.

    cain

  2. 2.

    4tehlulz

    January 3, 2008 at 8:38 pm

    Who gives a shit what Bill Bennett thinks?

  3. 3.

    myiq2xu

    January 3, 2008 at 8:39 pm

    Watching the caucuses live is like watching a basketball game on TV – tune in to the final 2 minutes, if that isn’t close, neither was the game, and if it is, you saw all the important action.

  4. 4.

    dbomp

    January 3, 2008 at 8:47 pm

    This appears to be the most up-to-date, and it refreshes automatically. It’s the Iowa Democratic Party site.

  5. 5.

    mclaren

    January 3, 2008 at 8:48 pm

    Ww. Edwards rocks. Of course, since he’s refused to take corproate PAC money, if he becomes the nominee, he faces a real money crunch. That’d be a case where the netroots would have to come to rescue. The Repubs have only one thing going for them: mountains of cash…

  6. 6.

    LiberalTarian

    January 3, 2008 at 8:49 pm

    Arg. I can’t stand it.

    Edwards will get the money if he needs it. No worries.

    Unlike Mitt, who apparently has sunk $14 million in Iowa?? Anyone have better figures??

  7. 7.

    p-rex

    January 3, 2008 at 8:50 pm

    somewhat “official” results for the dem caucus are at the iowa democratic party website

  8. 8.

    4tehlulz

    January 3, 2008 at 8:51 pm

    2% reporting (GOP): Huck >>>>>>> Romney > Thompson > McCain > Paul >>>>>>>> Giuliani.

    I laugh my ass off it Rudy gets less than 5%.

  9. 9.

    LiberalTarian

    January 3, 2008 at 8:54 pm

    Close close close.

    WaPo numbers

    Iowa Democratic Caucuses (17% reporting)
    Candidate %
    John Edwards 34
    Hillary Clinton 32
    Barack Obama 31
    Other 3

    Iowa Republican Caucuses (2% reporting)
    Candidate %
    Mike Huckabee 33
    Mitt Romney 24
    Fred Thompson 18
    Other 25

    Who’d a thunk Thompson would do this well.

  10. 10.

    Ninerdave

    January 3, 2008 at 8:59 pm

    I laugh my ass off it Rudy gets less than 5%.

    Well Rudy hasn’t been campaigning in Iowa, so I wouldn’t be surpised to see him in low single digits. From what I understand Iowans want their asses kissed to get their vote.

    Wait in 5 days, if Rudy gets his ass kicked in NH. THEN we’ll have something to laugh about.

  11. 11.

    TheFountainHead

    January 3, 2008 at 9:02 pm

    ZOMG! Huckabee!! Bwuahahahahaha!! I just did a little dance because the next three days are going to be FUN!!

  12. 12.

    Zifnab

    January 3, 2008 at 9:02 pm

    Who’d a thunk Thompson would do this well.

    It’s a shock to me. I guess all that talk about being “Reagen-esque” and “the only conservative in the race” actually got sold.

    Those Dems Caucuses are insane, though. You could cut the margins with a knife. I’m on the edge of my seat. Literally.

  13. 13.

    nrglaw

    January 3, 2008 at 9:04 pm

    CNN calls for Huckabee at 36%. Romney 23%.

  14. 14.

    Tim F.

    January 3, 2008 at 9:04 pm

    If Fred Thompson beats John war hero media darling McCain then we can stick a fork in the GOP this cycle. McCain will have a hard time shaking loseritis and none of the others have the faintest wisp of a chance in the general, least of all Fred Thompzzzzzzz.

  15. 15.

    Krista

    January 3, 2008 at 9:05 pm

    Absurdly close (586/1781 reporting)

    Clinton 31.88%
    Edwards 32.29%
    Obama 32.98%

    Huckabee’s still got the lead for the Repubs, with Mittens 10 points behind. Paul’s got 11%. Giuliani? 4%

  16. 16.

    Cain

    January 3, 2008 at 9:06 pm

    haha.. Kucinich has 0! I hope someone will vote for the poor bastard. I guess they all went to vote for Obama!

    Holy shit, it’s like neck and neck the whole way! I can’t believe they called Huckabee when it’s only like 20% counted. Fucking dicks.

    cain

  17. 17.

    TheFountainHead

    January 3, 2008 at 9:06 pm

    It’s a shock to me. I guess all that talk about being “Reagen-esque” and “the only conservative in the race” actually got sold.

    Those Dems Caucuses are insane, though. You could cut the margins with a knife. I’m on the edge of my seat. Literally.

    Ditto. And look at McCain’s numbers!!! I really thought he would have at least beat out Thompson!

  18. 18.

    gypsy howell

    January 3, 2008 at 9:07 pm

    Looks like poor ole Fred is going to have to keep on campaigning (if that’s what you call it) for another state or two.

  19. 19.

    Davebo

    January 3, 2008 at 9:07 pm

    According to CNN Obama leading

    Obama33%0Clinton32%0Edwards32%0

  20. 20.

    Krista

    January 3, 2008 at 9:08 pm

    And just as I wrote that, Obama pulled into the lead, followed by Edwards and then Clinton. I think this one’s going to be a photo finish, lads and ladettes.

  21. 21.

    nrglaw

    January 3, 2008 at 9:09 pm

    CNN reports Hillary losing ground to Obama 34 to 31. She is third to Edwards 32.

  22. 22.

    nrglaw

    January 3, 2008 at 9:10 pm

    Stick a fork in Romney. He’s done.

  23. 23.

    LiberalTarian

    January 3, 2008 at 9:11 pm

    Obama is pulling ahead at about halftime. Obama, 34, Clinton/Edwards, 31. Huckabee 35, Romney 24 (25% reporting).

  24. 24.

    gypsy howell

    January 3, 2008 at 9:12 pm

    SENATOR BARACK OBAMA : 34.31%
    SENATOR JOHN EDWARDS : 31.62%
    SENATOR HILLARY CLINTON : 31.24%

  25. 25.

    LiberalTarian

    January 3, 2008 at 9:12 pm

    What counts for a statistical dead heat? +/- 3 percentage points??

  26. 26.

    4tehlulz

    January 3, 2008 at 9:13 pm

    If Ron Paul beats McCain, then the GOP should just save itself the money and sit out this election.

    In any case, the Village must be BAWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWing its ass off right now with the Huck win.

  27. 27.

    Ninerdave

    January 3, 2008 at 9:15 pm

    What counts for a statistical dead heat? +/- 3 percentage points??

    That only applies to polls, not the actual vote.

  28. 28.

    p-rex

    January 3, 2008 at 9:15 pm

    wonder if cnn got the memo to kill huckabee’s campaign in any way possible?

    seriously. go to cnn.com and look at the picture they have up of huckabee. you couldn’t ask for a more unflattering look at your new republican frontrunner.

  29. 29.

    JWW

    January 3, 2008 at 9:18 pm

    So when your happy little circle jerk is over, your smiling faces will regret your decisions. You seem so happy to piss yourselves over (WHAT) Iowa. If Iowa were in the news or cared about by the nation as a whole, it would be popular all year long. You use them as bitches, they mean nothing to you. Go find a hole to hide in(mask your shame).

  30. 30.

    Ninerdave

    January 3, 2008 at 9:18 pm

    Called for the Huckster.

    I can see Huck pulling out the nomination. The evangelical vote has always been the heart and soul of the GOP vote, at least I hope to god (or is that G-d?) he wins.

  31. 31.

    LiberalTarian

    January 3, 2008 at 9:19 pm

    via Atrios:

    I spoke with a Republican strategist who is unaffiliated but is contact with every campaign and he’s very upset about Huckabee’s win. He said look, this is the right kind of state, the right kind of structure, large evangelical community. But this is a quote. He said, “This is the equivalent of Pat Robertson winning. The idea that Huckabee could mount a credible general election campaign is laughable.”

    This is the establishment Republican party speaking right now.

    Heh. Suck it up GOP. You wanted the Xian Right, and you got ’em.

    And Ron Paul in with 11%. Methinks some heads are exploding in the offices of numerous ostensibly pro-war/name your other batshit crazy policies of Republican congressmen. Unless you thin there’s some other constituency RP is tapping?

  32. 32.

    Ninerdave

    January 3, 2008 at 9:19 pm

    So when your happy little circle jerk is over, your smiling faces will regret your decisions. You seem so happy to piss yourselves over (WHAT) Iowa. If Iowa were in the news or cared about by the nation as a whole, it would be popular all year long. You use them as bitches, they mean nothing to you. Go find a hole to hide in(mask your shame).

    Fuck ya! You tell ’em brother!

  33. 33.

    4tehlulz

    January 3, 2008 at 9:20 pm

    It’s looking like the only interesting thing to look at is:

    A) Will Ron Paul get double digits?
    b) How fucked is McCain?
    c) Will Obama hit 40%?

  34. 34.

    LiberalTarian

    January 3, 2008 at 9:21 pm

    Ah. Well, winning without money would probably be OK for Edwards. Coming in second, even if it isn’t too far behind, not good for a broke campaign. :(

  35. 35.

    gypsy howell

    January 3, 2008 at 9:22 pm

    Heh. Suck it up GOP. You wanted the Xian Right, and you got ‘em.

    Don’t gloat so fast. In a race between good ole preacher boy Hucksterbee and Obama Bin Laden, we just might end up with President Huck.

    {{{{{shudder}}}}}}}

  36. 36.

    TheFountainHead

    January 3, 2008 at 9:27 pm

    Don’t gloat so fast. In a race between good ole preacher boy Hucksterbee and Obama Bin Laden, we just might end up with President Huck.

    {{{{{shudder}}}}}}}

    LSD is the only drug you could be abusing to get you anywhere near that planet-sized fallacy.

  37. 37.

    lee

    January 3, 2008 at 9:27 pm

    The hilarious thing about tonight is that performace of the 2 Iowa party’s websites.

    I think it pretty much sums our current party situation.

    The Dems website Here

    It’s simple. It works. Nothing flashy.

    The Republican one Here

    Fails to load (at least most of the time).

  38. 38.

    LiberalTarian

    January 3, 2008 at 9:29 pm

    Oy. I might have to expat.

  39. 39.

    p-rex

    January 3, 2008 at 9:30 pm

    right now the dem race is for 2nd place, with edwards holding a razor thin margin…

  40. 40.

    4tehlulz

    January 3, 2008 at 9:31 pm

    NBC calls it for Obama. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22484066/

  41. 41.

    lee

    January 3, 2008 at 9:31 pm

    The Great Orange Satan just hiccuped.

    Their web servers started serving up the front page from 11:03am today.

  42. 42.

    TheFountainHead

    January 3, 2008 at 9:33 pm

    CNNs punditry about Obama as the black candidate is surprisingly candid.

  43. 43.

    lee

    January 3, 2008 at 9:36 pm

    HOLT A*&(!*&@(*&@(!*@&

    CNN just updated their webpage

    PAUL is beating Giuliani!!!

  44. 44.

    Krista

    January 3, 2008 at 9:39 pm

    Poor Kucinich. Ouch.

  45. 45.

    4tehlulz

    January 3, 2008 at 9:41 pm

    Can Edwards continue in the campaign with a second place finish here tonight?I am an Edwards supporter.

    IMO, if he’s third to Hillary, he’s finished. If second, he needs to show in NH and win by 10+ in SC to remain viable. I don’t see that happening.

  46. 46.

    Jon H

    January 3, 2008 at 9:41 pm

    Clinton’s going to get ugggggly against Obama now. I wouldn’t put it past her to bring Rove and Scaife in as consultants.

  47. 47.

    LiberalTarian

    January 3, 2008 at 9:42 pm

    Stolen wholesale from Oliver:

    Scene from the GOP Mike Huckabee’s HQ…:

    In an unusual expression of faith at a political party headquarters, supporters are standing in circles, holding hands and offering prayers in the middle of the Huckabee ballroom. They appear to be families with adults and children standing together. This is happening amid the piped in rock music, media standups and giant screen coverage.

    Church as State. It’s going to be a very bad year.

    And, Oliver is buying wholesale into the idea that Obama is the Great Hope. I wish I thought so. I’d be a lot happier right now.

  48. 48.

    Jen

    January 3, 2008 at 9:42 pm

    CNN just showed a Dem chart of 17 to 24 year olds. “Others” got 19%. Hillary was included in the “others”. Ouch.

    Did I call the Huckster or did I call the Huckster? Can I get a drink on the house please?
    /channeling Stacey Earle
    I believe in dancin’ with them that brung me, oh the hearts that won me….

  49. 49.

    Cain

    January 3, 2008 at 9:45 pm

    Huckabee is probably line dancing right now with Chuck Norris.

    cain

  50. 50.

    Jen

    January 3, 2008 at 9:45 pm

    Dodd got a delegate! True, “uncommitted” got two delegates…

    Hell, I have no idea what the hell the caucus numbers mean. What they’re doing up there might as well be called “occlumency” or something else out of Harry Potter.

  51. 51.

    Cain

    January 3, 2008 at 9:47 pm

    Did people see Richardson climbing slowly? 2% isn’t too bad considering we never really heard from the guy. I hope he’ll do better in NH.

    cain

  52. 52.

    4tehlulz

    January 3, 2008 at 9:51 pm

    TPM has Clinton under 30%. Tomorrow’s polling in NH is going to be interesting.

  53. 53.

    TheFountainHead

    January 3, 2008 at 9:51 pm

    Hillary can no longer consider [Obama] anything less than a solid challenger. In fact, she now has to look at him as someone with whom she has to catch up.

    Well. Duuuuuhhhhhh!

  54. 54.

    The Other Steve

    January 3, 2008 at 9:54 pm

    Well, I was totally wrong on the other Republicans besides Huckabee supporters rallying around one man just to beat him. Stupid dumbos they are.

    But I called Obama, and I am happy as a clam.

    W00T!

  55. 55.

    p-rex

    January 3, 2008 at 9:55 pm

    gah! even more media weirdness. the top two ap headlines on my yahoo email:

    * Obama wins Democratic contest in Iowa (AP)
    * Giuliani skips Iowa caucuses for Florida (AP)

    heh. not ‘huckabee wins repub caucus’. soften the poor giuliani showing by making sure everyone knew he “skipped” it. well, it basically skipped him, too.

  56. 56.

    The Grand Panjandrum

    January 3, 2008 at 9:58 pm

    Will Fox let Ron Paul debate? Looks like he’s going to finish with about 10% of the vote. Heh.

  57. 57.

    Chris

    January 3, 2008 at 9:59 pm

    a’la Michael:

    She needs to reach out to Obama supporters.

    She needs to explain, demonstrate how exactly she’s experienced. “I had sex with a President while he was in office” isn’t cutting it, and is especially questionable.

  58. 58.

    Jen

    January 3, 2008 at 9:59 pm

    Mr. Jen says Jack Cafferty (sp? I don’t know who he is) says Barack just won in the whitest place outside the North Pole, and that’s he’s articulate and pleasant.

    Also, he is clean.

    Damn, this is going to be fun.
    If it comes down to Huckabee v. Obama, I don’t know about you guys, but I kinda see that as a sign of rejection of business as usual in politics. Would be a most interesting campaign. I stick to my view that Huckabee comes across as folksy and likeable and that should not be underestimated, but Obama, to me anyway, is just as smooth as silk and sharp as a tack. And I love the shirt and jacket with no tie look.

  59. 59.

    TheFountainHead

    January 3, 2008 at 10:03 pm

    Chris Matthews is warning us all about the Clintons: “Watch for the machine!”

  60. 60.

    crayz

    January 3, 2008 at 10:04 pm

    CNN’s 3D pie-chart, wtf?

    Please Hillary, please fucking lose. Third place!

  61. 61.

    Chris

    January 3, 2008 at 10:04 pm

    Will Fox let Ron Paul debate?

    Sure, once Fox can find questions appropriate for him

    “How many babies did you kill after they were given birth to?”

    “Enumerate how America causes terrorism”

    “How should America give reparations to terrorists?”

  62. 62.

    Jon H

    January 3, 2008 at 10:05 pm

    According to CNN, Obama got the most votes in the 17-29 and 30-44 age groups.

    Edwards got the 45-64 group.

    Clinton? 65+

  63. 63.

    Chris

    January 3, 2008 at 10:05 pm

    (oops, I fail. Can’t HTML today)

  64. 64.

    Jen

    January 3, 2008 at 10:07 pm

    For added fun, poke around RedState. Im. Plo. Sion.

    She needs to explain, demonstrate how exactly she’s experienced. “I had sex with a President while he was in office” isn’t cutting it, and is especially questionable.

    Plus, it doesn’t really distinguish her from dozens of other women…

  65. 65.

    Jon H

    January 3, 2008 at 10:08 pm

    “a commenter”?

    I ain’t no “commenter”, I’m motherfuckin’ Jon H!

    I will not be ignored, Michael D.!

    :)

  66. 66.

    LiberalTarian

    January 3, 2008 at 10:11 pm

    Well, we’ll see. Obama has stood up to them before, you know, with the whole lapel and hand over the heart salute thing. I just don’t want to see him letting the crooks go home with their ill-gotten gains while he asks us all to forgive them. Forget that crap. Get our budget surplus back, and I’ll be all kinds of forgiving. Get us out of that sucking hole in the Middle East and prepare our country for climate change. That’s what it is going to take. Does he have the nerve and backbone for it??

    And no, there’s no way in hell I think any of the GOP would do any of those things. They have too much invested in denying there is a problem to actually do anything about it. I just need to believe the folks on my side of the aisle are going to set things right.

    I wish I was happier about everything. Goodnight.

  67. 67.

    The Grand Panjandrum

    January 3, 2008 at 10:12 pm

    Sure, once Fox can find questions appropriate for him

    “How many babies did you kill after they were given birth to?”

    “Enumerate how America causes terrorism”

    “How should America give reparations to terrorists?”

    I just want him their to make the Republican pro-war establishment candidates explain why suspension of habeas corpus, torture and abrogation of the 4th amendment are acceptable. I have no desire for Ron Paul to be my President. I do have an intense desire to watch these Republican swine stumble through the right wing talking points.

  68. 68.

    Jon H

    January 3, 2008 at 10:12 pm

    I’m waiting for Bill Clinton to float the idea that he was getting head from Monica because he was bored what with Hilary doing all the real work. “She was my Dick Cheney, no lie. Of course my attention wandered. Those NSA geniuses whipped up a voice changer box for her so she could sound like me on the phone. I never got head from Monica while I was the phone, it was always Hil on there. The phone, that is, on the phone not my dick.”

  69. 69.

    CDB

    January 3, 2008 at 10:12 pm

    CNN seems too embarrassed to show Paul beating Giuliani. They show Richardson at 2%, why not Paul at 10%?

  70. 70.

    JWW

    January 3, 2008 at 10:13 pm

    on a map, where is Iowa come 2009-2010?

    Did they just open a mens club or a toyota factory, Im not quite sure but I hear a lot about them lately.

    Oh, I must be late in reading my news, they were just appointed the award for electing a new(SPCA Minister). Sorry I should learn to stay up with the times.

  71. 71.

    TheFountainHead

    January 3, 2008 at 10:14 pm

    Why does an Irish band ALWAYS get played at these things….

  72. 72.

    TheFountainHead

    January 3, 2008 at 10:17 pm

    …and why is Edwards talking about a guy with a cleft pallette?

  73. 73.

    lee

    January 3, 2008 at 10:20 pm

    McCain is now over Thompson (according to CNN)

  74. 74.

    Splitting Image

    January 3, 2008 at 10:23 pm

    I picked Huckabee and Edwards (with Obama second). I was also guessing that there would be a slightly wider spread between each person. Something along the lines of 40-33-27 after the second choices came in.

    Huck gets five days to enjoy his win before reality sets in.

    Obama could end up running the table, depending on how New Hampshire goes. Edwards is in a bit of a pickle. He’s going to be a much longer shot to win now, since he had banked so heavily on winning in Iowa.

    He still could pull it out though. His best chance is to pull some votes away from Clinton in New Hampshire and hope that a bunch more go to Obama as well. If mighty Hillary finishes in third in her “firewall” state, her campaign will start bleeding supporters. Edwards will try to cash in on that. If he hasn’t landed some delegates before February, though, he’s toast.

    McCain seems to have done better than expected (and therefore “won big”, as per the pundits) and should win New Hampshire. I think the Republicans will try to pull as quickly as possible into two camps: Huckabee and the Compromise. Whichever of McCain or Romney takes New Hampshire will become the nominee.

    I’d be surprised if anybody quits the race before New Hampshire. Every candidate except Fred Thompson will want to make as many speeches as possible before bowing to the inevitable

  75. 75.

    LiberalTarian

    January 3, 2008 at 10:25 pm

    OK, I know I was supposed to be going to bed all depressed and everything cuz my man Edwards only got the 45-65 year olds to vote for him, but I did get this stunning burst of happy:

    If all those young folks that turned out for Obama tonight turn out nationwide in November, 2008, they are likely to vote a straight ticket and WE ARE GOLDEN.

    Sigh. Now I can go home. :):):):):)

  76. 76.

    crayz

    January 3, 2008 at 10:28 pm

    Man, 20 seconds in and Hillary’s speech is already a trainwreck

    Hillary, the candidate for change! For idiots

  77. 77.

    Johnny Pez

    January 3, 2008 at 10:29 pm

    on a map, where is Iowa come 2009-2010?

    Did they just open a mens club or a toyota factory, Im not quite sure but I hear a lot about them lately.

    (scornful Sam Kinnison laugh)

  78. 78.

    TheFountainHead

    January 3, 2008 at 10:29 pm

    If all those young folks that turned out for Obama tonight turn out nationwide in November, 2008, they are likely to vote a straight ticket and WE ARE GOLDEN.

    Then we better hope Obama gets the nomination.

  79. 79.

    CDB

    January 3, 2008 at 10:30 pm

    Are they chanting “Billary”?

  80. 80.

    Jen

    January 3, 2008 at 10:32 pm

    Hillary: Ready to Lead (I add “Balloon”, Mr. Jen adds “Poisoning”)

  81. 81.

    Mary

    January 3, 2008 at 10:49 pm

    Huckabee scares the shit out of me. I first saw him on The Daily Show where he seemed to be a earnest and charming conservative who actually seemed to give a toss about poor people.

    Then I learned more about him and — uh, no thanks. (Not that I could ever vote for him anyway, being Canuck and all.)

    But given that many voters go for folksy and plain-spoken without looking into things more deeply, he could be one dangerous Republican candidate. And I wonder how much his appearance on The Tonight Show last night helped him in Iowa, given that the show had its highest ratings in two years.

  82. 82.

    The Other Steve

    January 3, 2008 at 10:51 pm

    Oh, I must be late in reading my news, they were just appointed the award for electing a new(SPCA Minister). Sorry I should learn to stay up with the times.

    Poor JWW. Voting for Bush wasn’t such a great idea after all.

  83. 83.

    ThymeZone

    January 3, 2008 at 10:55 pm

    he could be one dangerous Republican candidate.

    Well, just for grins, I’m going into the prediction business.

    First, I predict that he won’t win the GOP nomination, but that if he does, he’ll suffer a Goldwater-like defeat, a crushing defeat if Obama is the opponent.

    Meanwhile the Dems gain many seats in congress, and …. the world is right, at least for a while.

    Bring on the Huck.

  84. 84.

    Krista

    January 3, 2008 at 10:56 pm

    Huckabee scares the shit out of me. I first saw him on The Daily Show where he seemed to be a earnest and charming conservative who actually seemed to give a toss about poor people.

    Then I learned more about him and—uh, no thanks. (Not that I could ever vote for him anyway, being Canuck and all.)

    Seconded. I think he’s actually more dangerous than Bush, because a) he won’t just pay lip service to the theocrats, he’ll do everything he can to fully make the US a Christian nation, and b) despite the obtuseness that comes with his religious beliefs, I still think he’s smarter than Bush. Combine that with the charm, and it’s very, very bad indeed.

  85. 85.

    TheFountainHead

    January 3, 2008 at 11:05 pm

    Could Chris Matthews be any more in love with Obama? I think not. Not that I could blame him….

  86. 86.

    Ninerdave

    January 3, 2008 at 11:07 pm

    Seconded. I think he’s actually more dangerous than Bush, because a) he won’t just pay lip service to the theocrats, he’ll do everything he can to fully make the US a Christian nation, and b) despite the obtuseness that comes with his religious beliefs, I still think he’s smarter than Bush. Combine that with the charm, and it’s very, very bad indeed.

    Wholly disagree, his campaign was a mess these last few weeks, one flub after another. He’s got no chance in the general. While the folksy thing played with W, I don’t think Americans are fooled again.

  87. 87.

    Ninerdave

    January 3, 2008 at 11:09 pm

    Could Chris Matthews be any more in love with Obama? I think not. Not that I could blame him….

    I love Chris Matthews, his stream of consciousness analysis always amuses me. I think he’s perfect with Keith.

  88. 88.

    Dreggas

    January 3, 2008 at 11:11 pm

    OBAMANIA BABY!

  89. 89.

    Ninerdave

    January 3, 2008 at 11:13 pm

    Russert brought this up earlier and Josh picked up on it:

    “Beyond who won on each side, there’s a very big partisan message out of tonight. Just under 220,000 Democrats caucused tonight. About 115,000 Republicans did. That is a very big vote in itself.”

    …and I’ll add, this is about twice the number of Dems that caucused in 2004.

    This is a huge story. If indeed the passion runs this high through November, the GOP is going to get stomped, in a major, major way.

  90. 90.

    Jake

    January 3, 2008 at 11:15 pm

    Update VI: (9:03pm)
    Kucinich: 42%
    Gravel: 20%
    Richardson: 18%

    Just kidding!

    You dork.

    I’m surprised Obama did so well in IA. It will be interesting to see how he does in NH.

    And I think I hear my Talevangical neighbors wetting their pants. Wheee!

  91. 91.

    The Other Steve

    January 3, 2008 at 11:15 pm

    Wholly disagree, his campaign was a mess these last few weeks, one flub after another. He’s got no chance in the general. While the folksy thing played with W, I don’t think Americans are fooled again.

    Shhh. I want Huckabee was the GOP nominee.

  92. 92.

    Splitting Image

    January 3, 2008 at 11:16 pm

    “I’d be surprised if anybody quits the race before New Hampshire. ”

    Well, aren’t I the prognosticator. I just saw that Chris Dodd finished behind some fellow named “Uncommitted” and is considering dropping out.

    That’s sad.

  93. 93.

    Tim F.

    January 3, 2008 at 11:17 pm

    A lot of you have been wondering what exactly Tim F was drinking when Barack Obama took the Iowa caucuses by storm. The answer: Omaka Springs Sauvignon Blanc fron New Zealand. It’s not very patriotic but damn does it go well with salmon.

    BTW, Obama has the pipes to win. Mark my words.

  94. 94.

    Ninerdave

    January 3, 2008 at 11:20 pm

    Shhh. I want Huckabee was the GOP nominee.

    Me too! you kidding? If he’s still viable heading into the CA primary, I’m switching to GOP just to vote for him.

  95. 95.

    YellowJournalism

    January 3, 2008 at 11:21 pm

    Seconded. I think he’s actually more dangerous than Bush, because a) he won’t just pay lip service to the theocrats, he’ll do everything he can to fully make the US a Christian nation, and b) despite the obtuseness that comes with his religious beliefs, I still think he’s smarter than Bush. Combine that with the charm, and it’s very, very bad indeed.

    I just want to know how many Canadian TV stations will play clips of Huckabee from “Talking to Americans” if he gets the nomination.

  96. 96.

    TheFountainHead

    January 3, 2008 at 11:23 pm

    Biden and Dodd have dropped. Look for Obama endorsement down the road.

  97. 97.

    crayz

    January 3, 2008 at 11:25 pm

    68% for Obama + Edwards. Almost gives me hope for this damn country. One of the best days American politics has had in years. After 7 years of Bush, looking at Romney and Clinton as the choices was about enough to make me leave the country

    President Obama, I like the sound of that. “Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things”

  98. 98.

    demimondian

    January 3, 2008 at 11:26 pm

    Krista, Mary…take this from a long-time US resident.

    The Iowa Republican caucuses have had done this to the party before, specifically in 1988, when Pat Robertson won. In the end, Patrick’s Charge was the high-water mark of the Christian Coalition, and the party coalesced behind the anointed thereafter.

    Now, don’t get me wrong: I’d love to see Huckabee win the nom. TZ’s right; his real beliefs write the script for a massive Republican Repudiation. However, I expect that the party elders are about to show Huckabee what they’re capable of doing. He’s a dead candidate walking — and he’s about to discover that.

    Tim, I think the theocrats get the chump seat.

  99. 99.

    TheFountainHead

    January 3, 2008 at 11:27 pm

    Obama’s speech was sooo well written, orchestrated, and read. Alone on stage, in a large space, not in some hotel ballroom with your campaign cronies crowded around you…excellent choices being made by that campaign.

  100. 100.

    Dreggas

    January 3, 2008 at 11:37 pm

    TheFountainHead Says:

    Obama’s speech was sooo well written, orchestrated, and read. Alone on stage, in a large space, not in some hotel ballroom with your campaign cronies crowded around you…excellent choices being made by that campaign.

    Is it online anywhere?

  101. 101.

    Jake

    January 3, 2008 at 11:38 pm

    However, I expect that the party elders are about to show Huckabee what they’re capable of doing. He’s a dead candidate walking—and he’s about to discover that.

    It’s all good. If Aw-sHucks goes all the way to November the theo-cons will watch their chosen one get squashed. If the big brains of the GOP try to push him out via “Black love child” type smears (I can’t imagine they’d use facts), it will make the theo-cons angrier.

    Too much fun.

  102. 102.

    Jon H

    January 3, 2008 at 11:41 pm

    If it’s Obama vs Huck in November, the GOP won’t know which one to assassinate.

  103. 103.

    Jon H

    January 3, 2008 at 11:47 pm

    “The Iowa Republican caucuses have had done this to the party before, specifically in 1988, when Pat Robertson won. In the end, Patrick’s Charge was the high-water mark of the Christian Coalition, and the party coalesced behind the anointed thereafter.”

    I think Huck might have broader appeal than Robertson, since Pat wasn’t a retail politician and Huck is.

    It’ll be interesting to see what happens in a primary where the disgruntled Repubs can’t easily vote for, say, Obama. Will they stay home? Or will they vote for the GOP leper to spite the party?

  104. 104.

    Jon H

    January 3, 2008 at 11:51 pm

    Tim F. wrote: “BTW, Obama has the pipes to win. Mark my words.”

    And listening to them isn’t an act of self-flagellation, unlike the current sped.

  105. 105.

    incontrolados

    January 3, 2008 at 11:51 pm

    I haven’t read all of the comments, but I hope the last one is not indicative of what I think it might be. Michelle Obama has already said it. It’s a thing I have feared. Down here in Texas, people seem to believe that it’s ok to shoot a black man just because he comes on one’s property.

    Crap, I just wanted to say thank you to Micheal D. for the updates. I don’t have cable or nothin’ so I refreshed often.

    I’m a baseball fan, and I don’t think my knock-knock-knock, twew-twew-twew will cover Obama. I want to believe. I just can’t.

  106. 106.

    incontrolados

    January 3, 2008 at 11:55 pm

    Maybe I was seeing things. Sorry.

  107. 107.

    tBone

    January 3, 2008 at 11:58 pm

    If the big brains of the GOP try to push him out via “Black love child” type smears (I can’t imagine they’d use facts)

    If they’re smart they’ll kill two birds with one stone. You heard it here first: Huckabee is the real father of Obama’s children.

  108. 108.

    douglasfactors

    January 4, 2008 at 12:06 am

    Pat Robertson came in second behind Dole in 1988.

  109. 109.

    Ninerdave

    January 4, 2008 at 12:10 am

    Man, every time I see Obama speak, I get chills. That speech was amazing. Regardless of what you think of him, his charisma and oratory skills are inspiring.

  110. 110.

    Ninerdave

    January 4, 2008 at 12:23 am

    Now, don’t get me wrong: I’d love to see Huckabee win the nom. TZ’s right; his real beliefs write the script for a massive Republican Repudiation. However, I expect that the party elders are about to show Huckabee what they’re capable of doing. He’s a dead candidate walking—and he’s about to discover that.

    Yeah, but I think the evangelicals do the heavy lifting for the GOP. They are the GOTV and the vote itself. They now have a real live Southern Baptist preacher to get behind. What you end up with is the party insiders vs. the party voters. Unless Huck flames out in a major way, like having a wide stance or some such, I think it’s his to loose. He’s already survived smearing for the last two weeks from the party insiders, and trounced their man. Who steps up? McCain? If Rommey looses in NH too, he’s toast.

    Huck will probably loose NH, but he’s got a ton of evangelicals to prop him up in SC and beyond.

    Of course, he has no chance in the general (as I said above).

    My prediction, and admittedly I’m not stepping to far from reality here; if Huck gets the nod, and right now I’d say he’s got at least a 50/50 chance, he will be the wedge that splits the evangelicals from the neo-cons and supply siders. I don’t see the evangelicals playing chumps anymore.

  111. 111.

    The Other Steve

    January 4, 2008 at 12:32 am

    Is it online anywhere?

    Kos just posted it

    It is incredible. You cannot say this guy has no charisma like Kerry or Dukakis.

  112. 112.

    The Other Steve

    January 4, 2008 at 12:36 am

    I think Huckabee’s support is capped at say 40% in any given state. As long as the remainder of the Republican field stays divided, he wins. But if Romney and Thompson drop out endorsing Mccain… or some other similar combo, then Huckabee is in trouble.

  113. 113.

    Jon H

    January 4, 2008 at 1:33 am

    “I haven’t read all of the comments, but I hope the last one is not indicative of what I think it might be”

    I posted the comment you read. I’m an Obama supporter, and I am concerned about it too. Especially with the GOP and the Clintons pushing the scurrilous closet muslim bullshit.

    That’s especially dangerous, because it could inflame disturbed terra-panicked Islamophobes, in addition to the just-plain-racists who were plenty to worry about on their own.

    And if something horrible happened, I wouldn’t put it past Cheney to cancel the election ‘for security reasons’. Especially if that would also keep Huck from being elected.

    But I have a very dark sense of humor and couldn’t help picturing the GOP leadership behind it all, rather than crazy losers, and being faced with an unexpected quandary.

  114. 114.

    Jon H

    January 4, 2008 at 1:52 am

    “Poor Kucinich. Ouch.”

    Cue Pee-Wee voice
    I meant to do that.
    End Pee-Wee voice

  115. 115.

    Rick Taylor

    January 4, 2008 at 2:01 am

    I think that’s probably true, and it would be Clinton’s downfall. She needs to reach out to Obama supporters.

    According to talk left, she’s already started:

    Hillary was gracious and like she always does, touted her experience and specifics about her aqenda if she’s elected. But, her speech tonight was different — in recognition of Obama’s win of the youth vote, she stressed global warming and bringing the troops home. No mention of social security, caregivers, voting for a female, etc, which she was stressing just yesterday when I heard her in Cedar Rapids.

    Bottom line: As I wrote last night, I think the Democratic nomination will turn on the youth vote. and it’s too late for Hillary to pick it up — Obama owns them. Rock the Vote may not have brought it home for Gore or Kerry, but it seems like it can do the trick for Obama.

  116. 116.

    conumbdrum

    January 4, 2008 at 3:26 am

    At this point, it seems to me that the smartest thing the GOP could do would be to let Huckabee win the nomination. That way they butter up the theocons enough to ensure the religious right’s support for at least another decade or so… and when Huck goes down like a wet fart in November, the Repub machine can:

    A) blame the Jesus-hatin’ “secular progressives” for using every dirty trick in their Necronomicon to keep a good Christian man outen the White House…

    and B) use Huck’s wipeout as a valid excuse to never, ever, ever allow a fundamentalist Xian to carry the standard for the GOP in a presidential election again.

    They won’t do any such thing, of course… only hastening the inevitable supply-sider/fundamentalist split that will do the Republican party in… at least until they figure out some way to capture the Hispanic vote. Good luck with that, schmucks.

    Huckabee is to the Republican power structure what George McGovern was to the Democratic machine in 1972… a threat to everything they hold dear (namely, tax cuts, tax cuts and – can’t forget this one – tax cuts). The only question left is whether Romney or McCain gets to be the GOP’s Hubert Humphrey surrogate this time around.

  117. 117.

    Anne Laurie

    January 4, 2008 at 3:34 am

    I think [Huckabee]’s actually more dangerous than Bush, because a) he won’t just pay lip service to the theocrats, he’ll do everything he can to fully make the US a Christian nation, and b) despite the obtuseness that comes with his religious beliefs, I still think he’s smarter than Bush. Combine that with the charm, and it’s very, very bad indeed.

    True, that, although you might want to use the term Christianist nation to capture the full fundie flavor of Huckabee’s Young-Earth, Queers-to-the-Camps, Wives-Submit-to-Yer-Husbands Southern Baptist-ery. And being “smarter than Bush” is not exactly the highest hurdle in the political sweeps, is it? But the Arkansas Elmer Gantry does scare me, and I can only hope that he continues to scare the Permanent Republican Party even worse.

    Charming as he may be during a talk-show segment, there seems to be enough Public Ugly in Huckabee’s past to give his opponents plenty of ammunition. My guess at this point is that Romney, unless he does extremely well in New Hampshire, will be visited by RNC elders with a lead pipe in one hand and an offer of 2012 support in the other. Since Romney’s natural voting base is himself, plus his five sons, plus his personal millions — and he’s losing the support of his spawn as they balance a new line on their feeble resumes against the speed at which Daddy Willard is burning through their inheritance — he should be open to negotiation before the “Super Primary”. Once Romney exits and Fred Thompson runs out of (Jeri’s) steam, the GOP gets to unite behind John “Always A Team Player, So Now It’s His Turn” McCain, and Huckabee goes back to Hope, trailed by some percentage of the Talivangelicals, and bad cess to the lot of them.

    After which, I sincerely hope, McCain gets his ass beaten by the Edwards/Clinton or Obama/Anybody-not-Lieberman ticket like he was back in the Hanoi Hilton. But then, in 2005 I was confidently predicting that Hillary, after extracting the maximum of funding & media attention, would fail to announce for the Presidency, because there are just too many lost souls wandering around with guns and without medical supervision. Presumably she’s decided that the lure of Assassinating the First Neeegro President would be even more irresistable than Ending the Threat of The Dread Pirate Hillary, but I sure wouldn’t want to work the Secret Service detail for either of them…

  118. 118.

    Cyrus

    January 4, 2008 at 9:03 am

    Um, I like the outcome as much as anyone, but I feel obliged to point out that this is just one caucus.

  119. 119.

    Jake

    January 4, 2008 at 10:21 am

    …at least until they figure out some way to capture the Hispanic vote. Good luck with that, schmucks.

    Yep. They still can’t figure out why African-Americans predominantly vote Democratic. Gee, could it have anything to do with the fact the GOP can’t seem to function without an easily identifiable bogeyman?

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