Here is the proof:
The Iraqi defense minister said Monday that his nation would not be able to take full responsibility for its internal security until 2012, nor be able on its own to defend Iraq’s borders from external threat until at least 2018.
Those comments from the minister, Abdul Qadir, were among the most specific public projections of a timeline for the American commitment in Iraq by officials in either Washington or Baghdad. And they suggested a longer commitment than either government had previously indicated.
Pentagon officials expressed no surprise at Mr. Qadir’s projections, which were even less optimistic than those he made last year.
As we contemplate the annual costs of permanent war in Iraq for the next dozen or so years, let’s stroll down memory lane and pick out our favorite quotes from early on in the war. I will start:
Paul Wolfowitz, 2003- “The oil revenues of that country could bring between $50 and $100 billion over the course of the next two or three years. Now, there are a lot of claims on that money, but… We are dealing with a country that can really finance its own reconstruction and relatively soon.”
I can’t believe I fell for this shit.
*** Update ***
BTW, it has been noted that the powers that be have labeled the ability for the Iraqi government to provide for their own security is a “medium term” goal. Permanent occupation, folks.
Poopyman
Yeah, I can’t believe you did either.
But what I’m really here to point out is, what’s the likelihood of that 2012/2018 date moving out in the next couple of years? 100%? I thought so.
I don’t like the idea of leaving Iraq a defenseless shithole, but the options are very limited, given our declining military capability.
Bob In Pacifica
Aren’t you glad Wolfowitz went from the Administration to the World Bank? How soon is the Depression?
croatoan
The National Strategy for Victory in Iraq lists “providing its own security” as a medium term goal. The long term goal is an Iraq that’s “peaceful, united, stable, and secure.”
Punchy
If we burn enuff fossil fuels, we can melt Antartica and simply flood Iraq. It’s much easier patrolling a lake than a country. Our Navy could take over for the Army, natch.
So the answer to the Iraq problem really is more SUVs. Problem solved.
Fwiffo
See, the problem here is that we’re creating a culture of dependence. Those welfare sheiks will get their act together as soon as we get them off the handouts.
akaoni
How is this new? Iraq was always a viewed as a replacement for the bases that were lost in Saudi Arabia. Iraq has always been about the extension of US military power into the Mid East. The plans for Iraq have always been permanent. I guess it just takes some people a bit longer to catch on.
taodon
Yeah, I can’t believe you fell for it either. From the moment the first tower fell, I turned to my friend and asked him, “So, how soon before we attack Iraq?” This bullshit was clear as day for anyone who wasn’t caught up in the hyper-patriotism, never question teh leaders, crap. If I seem snarky and superior, it’s because I am. A few of us knew this was going to be shit from the get go – and were told we were horrible, unpatriotic traitors who should be shot.
It disgusts me that I was even remotely correct about this. May God protect the troops. May God protect the law-abiding citizens of Iraq. And most of all, may God forgive the enablers that created and fostered this situation in the first place.
I would also like to say that considering your track record of picking leaders, I’m not too sure I’m comfortable with you defending Hillary all the time. But maybe that’s just me.
(I don’t mean this to be as harsh as it may appear – it’s just frustrating.)
Elvis Elvisberg
Interesting, croatoan. I thought the medium-term goal was “hastening the rapture,” and the long-term goal was “Jesus returns!” That would at least make arming everyone in Iraq make a little more sense.
Cheney: “We will be greeted as liberators.” “I frankly think Mr. ElBaradei was wrong.” Rumsfeld: we have “bulletproof” intelligence linking Iraq and al Qaeda.
I bought it all. After all, hadn’t we learned, in the 1960s and 1970s, that lying/failing to do your homework about important stuff comes back to bite you in the end? So how could these Serious people all be lying/wishfully thinking?
My faith in government, the media, Republicans, and Democrats will never recover. Nor, of course, should it.
Jon H
“I can’t believe I fell for this shit.”
I bet there’s a psychology PhD dissertation in the textual analysis of blog posts of people who went from Bush supporter to ‘BDS’.
It’d be pretty interesting, I bet. You don’t rarely get a day-by-day textual record of someone’s progression on something like that.
Jen
Good grief, I wouldn’t even classify the US as “peaceful, united, stable, and secure”. I’ve said this before and I apologize for harping, but what ARE these guys ingesting that allows them to come up with this as a goal for Iraq while simultaneously maintaining that every American being able to see a doctor when they’re sick is some sort of impossible pipe dream?
KCinDC
If you’re talking about costs in Iraq, don’t forget about Andrew Natsios, who’s still respected as someone who knows what he’s talking about despite saying with a straight face that the entire cost of Iraq to the US would be $1.7 billion. Right now he’s only off by a factor of several hundred, but I’m confident he can eventually reach a full three orders of magnitude in wrongness.
Bombadil
But don’t forget those Iraqi Boston Whalers that strike such terror into our navy. They’ll be able to transfer all the resources from their army into purchasing more small craft with which to attack our warships, and buy dozens more CB radios for people on shore to make threats.
taodon
Um, don’t you mean trillion?
4tehlulz
Rumsfeld quotes here.
Jon H
“Um, don’t you mean trillion?”
Not according to Natsios of the Bush admin. Trillions would be realistic. The Bush admin doesn’t do realistic.
taodon
According to estimates, we’re already at 456 billion as the cost of the Iraq war so far, is why I’m asking.
Jen
And that’s why KC wrote:
Some Guy Named Matt
Hey I fell for it too. But then again I’m an IdiotTM. So you probably don’t want to be lumped in with me.
taodon
Thanks Jen – I missed that.
Justin
Here’s why I don’t think we’ll be there until 2012.
The economy is about to get real bad. Inflation is going to get out of hand, and China is going to stop funding our wars. Why would they want to buy our dollars, when our dollars continue to lose significant value every month. America simply isn’t going to be able to afford it.
Jon H
“America simply isn’t going to be able to afford it.”
Or it’ll be used as an excuse to strip everything else in the budget to feed the useless war. Cue Grover Norquist o-face.
Jim
“THE SURGE WORKED” ….brought to you by the same folks who brought you “MISSION ACCOMPLISHED!’
What I find very disturbing are Bush’s and McCain’s analogy to Korea – we have had troops in Korea for almost 60 years. Yeah, to serve as human triggers and protect a country that is vastly richer than the country threatening it. Why are we spending a penny to protect South Kore?. Why hasn’t South Korea developed an army that can defend itself? Simply put, they don’t have to, which is why Iraq never will either as long as we agree to stay there.
Bush – Worst.President.Ever.
Caidence (fmr. Chris)
Hey, as long as you admit you did, and that it was a mistake, I bear no ill will to the victims of a well-planned hoodwinking. No mocking.
Teasing, maybe. Yes, teasing. But no mocking.
I’d love to believe that “everyone should have been wiser like me” and give myself a pat on the back, but I can’t prove that was ever possible. So we’ll move on.
Moving on…
How much you wanna bet that after someone hinged on reality gets into office and decides we’re fucking outta there that the “2012” figure will decrease by a couple notches?
They’ve been sucking on the oil teat for too long, those lazy bastards. Make them work for it.
Bill H
I can’t believe I fell for this shit.
Long before the invasion I predicted that a) we would find no wmd’s and b) that we were walking into a occupation that would become a quagmire. It’s not that I was so smart, it was just that I knew Bush to be a pathological liar before he even morphed out of Texas.
John's Minions
There’s an interesting parallel to Jim’s comment regarding the two Koreas. If the U.S. were to pull out of S.K. The two countries would inevitably reunify, either from some sort of negotiated process, or by the north simply absorbing the south. The crux is, a lot of South Koreans I know would be okay with either way.
It’s hard for us to understand, but they look at themselves as one people, and the politics of their nation, especially for the young people who haven’t experienced a totalitarian regime, are simply not as important as A: being the one country they see themselves as, and B: getting the foreign troops out of that country. That’s a powerful impulse.
Iraq would undoubtedly go through a similar but reverse process, as the various ethnic groups that make up the country were absorbed by their neighbors, Shiites to Iran, Kurds to the Kurdish lands of Turkey, and Sunnis to.. uh.. well good luck to them..
In both cases, the U.S. soldiers serve as the krazy glue that holds together a politically convienient boundary. The powers that be aren’t going to let go.
Grand Moff Texan
But you libbyruls just don’t grasp facts and logic! The surge worked! Bush was right! You know, just like the song?
.
srv
Did you folks all miss This?
Tsulagi
Oh, let’s even go a little later. You know, when the big picture was clearly on screen…
Thank God The Surge worked there too bringing that to reality.
But all snark aside, not to worry, the Democrats are coming to power. They really can’t lose. President Barak Obama will transcend Iraq. In support, Dems in Congress will issue a stern resolution of levitation.
Davebo
The goal posts have now been moved into the parking lot.
Of the baseball stadium.
bob
I can’t believe ANYONE ever bought anything George Bush had to say about ANYTHING. If you watched the first Gore-Bush debate it was OBVIOUS TO YOUR FREAKIN’ GRANDMA TEN YEARS IN HER GRAVE that George W. Bush was absofuckinglutely not qualified to be president. PERIOD FUCKING PERIOD. I have a hard time accepting people who took 7 years to come to their senses (present company excepted,of course). I’m sorry but a vote for Bush in 2000 was the vote of an idiot. All Bush voters have my contempt. YOU (the Bush voter in general)are responsible for the horrendous mess we are in. You are the people who screamed “rule of law” for years because Clinton got a fucking blowjob. Where’s the “rule of law” now, you fucks?
Zifnab
I trusted Colin Powell. Many people did. Powell got up in front of the UN and stated that Iraq had mobile chemical weapons labs. I recognized that this was a Bad Thing(tm) and was definitely in violation of the UN prohibition on Iraqi weapons.
There was still a monster red flag about invading Iraq when it clearly had no ties to 9/11 (I’m proud to say I wasn’t quite that dumb), and the idea that Saddam had ballistic missile technology or the ability to smuggle VX gas from Bagdad to Boston, completely undetected, was somewhat laughable. But when everyone else in the country was shouting about evil Middle Eastern dictators threatening our security… hey, I’m not the President, and he wouldn’t be able to bully this shit by the Senate unless it had some merit, right?
So, that was five years ago. I’ve seen the Bush White House lie about the War in Iraq for roughly 20% of my life. Whatever may be said about one’s gullibility then, I cannot justify ANYONE believing a word out of this administration’s mouth right now. Literally everything they say is by default a lie until confirmed otherwise. And even then, its in doubt.
How any fraction of the American public could look at the “results” in Iraq and claim progress, much less success, makes me question the basic tenants of human evolution. At some point, it seems like we should have developed some rational, intelligent way to process this much lying.
Rick Taylor
From that dirty smelly hippy, Atrios:
He’s been right sor far.
Rick Taylor
And I was seeing clearly back in 2002. The administration was obviously hyping Iraq’s nuclear capabilities, no wonks of any stature said Iraq was a nuclear threat. The attempts to tie a secular regime like Saddam to a radical fundamentalist group like Al Qaeda that would happily see his regime overthrown given the chance were laughable. It was plausible he had some old chemical weapons left over (probably past their sell-by date), but as the administration was clearly doing everything they could to start a war, and as they could come up with no concrete evidence (they kept sending the inspectors in Iraq on wild goose chases), it was obvious they had none.
It was like a nightmare for me, one of those bad dreams where you know there’s a horrible monster in the closet, but your family’s smiling and oblivious, and you’re shouting at them, don’t open that door! Saddam was a tyrant, but he had a constituency, people he kept in power, and after we overthrew him, the Sunni’s wouldn’t shrug there shoulders and say, oh well. So it was likely than any government we put into power wouldn’t be able to stand on its own, and we’d be there for years, and the people who got us into this mess would tell us, well maybe it was a bad idea to invade, but stop harping on the past, we can’t leave now or it will really be bad. And, as in Vietnam, I expected there would be atrocities on our side; you can’t keep an army for years with no clear goal while being shot at by counter-insurgents hiding among the population without expecting that. And Bush’s administration had been in power long enough to prove they were incompetent, so they could be expected to fuck up an already bad situation (for a few bloggers, this was the deciding factor for opposing the war).
What was intensely discouraging was there’s a simple rule you’d think any civilized country would have figured out by now. War is chaotic and unpredictable, and you use it as an absolutely last resort. It ‘s damn painful that after all the history to look back upon, we elected to invade a country unilaterally that was no threat to us; it was a war of aggression, something the US or any civilized country should never be a party too. It makes me wonder how we’re going to face the challenges of the next century if we can’t even get something as simple as that right.
ImJohnGalt
Is that like when Giuliani turned to his aide when he saw the first tower fall and said “Thank God George W. Bush is our president”?
Delia
The Surge has worked extremely well. Not many Americans were ever paying attention to those permanent bases our regime started building in Iraq from Day One. Most people were naive enough to think we were actually coming home someday soon. The Surge has served to inure the American public to the brutality and neverending nature of the war simply by bringing the level of violence down to where it was the year before. Now if jolts back up again, most people over here probably won’t notice so much. The whole thing was never more than a propaganda ploy aimed at us, the American public.
tom.a
…by bringing the level of violence down to where it was the year before. Now if jolts back up again
Oh it will jolt back up, but Bush will do everything he can to push that inevitable jolt until the elections next year, at which time he can start blaming the increase in violence on the Democrats and the media will furrow their unified brow and wonder aloud if indeed Bush was right all along.
All I know is if one of the richest nations in the world attacked me and then they started handing me billions of dollars every week I’d be putting things off as long as possible too. The Iraqi government (or someone) is getting mighty rich over there.
Tim (the other one)
What bob said at 12:48. I watched those debates with a mouth-breathing look of amazement and it’s been downhill ever since. He makes St. Ronnie look good. I could never grasp the fact that Bush was the Country Club Machine’s choice.
JF
I fell for it too. I was just a young dumbass in the middle of college straight out of an arch-conservative household. Supporting Bush and this war is the embarrassment of my life to date.
Remember, of course, last January. Bush had no problems saying Iraqis would take over 100% of their own security by December 2007 as long as the “surge” was implemented.
Remember the way they made September 07 out to be the “reckoning” day, the time when our future support will end if Iraqis didn’t show they cared? It was all bullshit theater.
STEVEinSC
I totally agree with this. What was so jarring was the obvious WTF’s coming from the administration, the obvious thin narratives and orchestration. That said, I believed Iraq had hold-over chemical and maybe biological weapons, because they had used chemical before. I just didn’t think any of these were for anything but local use by a pint-sized Stalin. Anyway we gave that shit to him and knew what he wanted it for. As for the cost of the war, I think there are two numbers. One that’s only a few billion a year for the actual “war.” The other is for the military industrial complex (e.g. the calls for expanding the Navy for god’s sake.) That is in the hundreds of billions and is just republican Keynesian/Reagan/Stockman trickle-down. Note that the Iraq war is off the books as far a this deficit spending is concerned. Speaking of embedding comments, Bush is embedding the US in the mid east. Forever. A poisonious legacy that transcends his presidency.