Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Bark louder, little dog.

Despite his magical powers, I don’t think Trump is thinking this through, to be honest.

Prediction: the GOP will rethink its strategy of boycotting future committees.

I know this must be bad for Joe Biden, I just don’t know how.

I’m sure you banged some questionable people yourself.

It may be funny to you motherfucker, but it’s not funny to me.

if you can’t see it, then you are useless in the fight to stop it.

Just because you believe it, that doesn’t make it true.

Our job is not to persuade republicans but to defeat them.

I wonder if trump will be tried as an adult.

People are complicated. Love is not.

And we’re all out of bubblegum.

Too often we confuse noise with substance. too often we confuse setbacks with defeat.

JFC, are there no editors left at that goddamn rag?

Teach a man to fish, and he’ll sit in a boat all day drinking beer.

I like you, you’re my kind of trouble.

“I never thought they’d lock HIM up,” sobbed a distraught member of the Lock Her Up Party.

“Everybody’s entitled to be an idiot.”

Peak wingnut was a lie.

Black Jesus loves a paper trail.

Putin must be throwing ketchup at the walls.

Battle won, war still ongoing.

Russian mouthpiece, go fuck yourself.

So it was an October Surprise A Day, like an Advent calendar but for crime.

You are here: Home / z-Retired Categories / Site Maintenance / How Low Can It Go?

How Low Can It Go?

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This is a stock market open thread. I hope someone’s enjoying the ride. I’m certainly not. I’ve lost $6,900 from my 401(k) since December, and I imagine those of you who have been living in and saving in the US for a lot longer than me are doing even worse. On the other hand, your next 401(k) contribution will probably buy a lot more.

So, how will the $140 billion stimulus package stimulate the economy? Beats the shit outta me. All I know is that it’ll probably have to be borrowed from China. And what about the rate cut? The Fed lowered it this morning by three-quarters of a point.

Have a fun day. Stock futures are already down over 500 points.

Reader Interactions

106Comments

  2. 2.

    cleek

    I’ve lost $6,900 from my 401(k) since December

    well, you only lost something if you actually sold the holdings in your account at a loss.

    and odds are good, in 30 years (or whenever you’re going to retire), this little bump will have little to no effect on your balance.

  4. 4.

    HeartlandLiberal

    Your loss compares with that of my wife and me over same period. Lovely prospect when one is two years out from retirement. I am hunkering down to survive the remaining two years till I retire. I am more fortunate than most Americans, at 64 I will have five years of deferred income coming, which will be enough to live on without touching my retirement funds until I am 69. That probably puts me in a 5% of the population category. I have no idea what the other 95% of Americans are expected to do when the economy is a shambles, jobs have been outsourced, the middle class destroyed, and one out of 6 or 7 Americans with no health insurance. I am sure Bush will have some sage advice, probably urging everyone to go shopping, you know, like he did after 9/11, in case you have forgotten.

  5. 5.

    PigInZen

    $31,152 since December 1st. My wife’s corporate stock has taken a bath and is off 50% from its 52-week high.

    I’m expecting it to lose between 12% and 18% today alone. Here’s the odd part – the dividend has INCREASED. Time to buy more…

  6. 6.

    PigInZen

    $31,152 since December 1st. My wife’s corporate stock has taken a bath and is off 50% from its 52-week high.

    I’m expecting it to lose between 12% and 18% today alone. Here’s the odd part – the dividend has INCREASED. Time to buy more…

  8. 8.

    TR

    The only thing I’m sure of is that C-Plus Augustus will be proposing a fat new round of tax cuts as the solution. It’s his one-size-fits-all solution.

    We’re runnin’ a surplus? Give people back their money! We’re runnin’ a deficit? We need to give people $300 checks to fix it! We’re melting down like 1929? Wash, rinse, repeat!

    Thanks, stupid selfish Republicans! You’ve finally fucked the economy like you’ve fucked everything else! Thanks for showing us how much you love this country by ruining it!

  10. 10.

    Dennis - SGMM

    This can only be good for McCain. As the economy goes further into the tank watch voters flock for comfort to the gray-haired guy who’s been around forever. That’s not rational but when things go south people tend to vote with their lizard brains.

  11. 11.

    Punchy

    Doesn’t dropping the interest rate THAT much just fuel inflation like crazy? Do I have that relationship right? Rate goes down, prices go up, or am I smoking crack?

  15. 15.

    Ryan S.

    Well, my 401k has just broke even, this last quarter. Thank you, European markets… (prolly after these last two days not so much.) And everyone laughed at me when I put 30% into that European fund.

  17. 17.

    Pb

    Punchy,

    This is Bernanke we’re talking about–this Bernanke:

    In 2002, when the word “deflation” began appearing in the business news, Bernanke gave a speech about deflation.[10] In that speech, he mentioned that the government in a fiat money system owns the physical means of creating money. Control of the means of production for money implies that the government can always avoid deflation by simply issuing more money. (He referred to a statement made by Milton Friedman about using a “helicopter drop” of money into the economy to fight deflation.) Bernanke’s critics have since referred to him as “Helicopter Ben” or to his “helicopter printing press”. In a footnote to his speech, Bernanke noted that “people know that inflation erodes the real value of the government’s debt and, therefore, that it is in the interest of the government to create some inflation.”[11]

    FYI, Wikipedia–some of his critics also called him Ben “Printing Press” Bernanke, for the same reasons.

  18. 18.

    neil

    Well, I have only debt in the U.S., and I’m earning in a foreign currency, so this is all bully for me.

  19. 19.

    4tehlulz

    Doesn’t dropping the interest rate THAT much just fuel inflation like crazy?

    More or less. It’s sort of like turning the currency presses up to 11. The dollar is going to do very badly today, especially against the yen.

  20. 20.

    Kirk Spencer

    Punchy – yes, it fuels (price) inflation. (note that economists and a few others differentiate between types of inflation. It does matter, but I’m leaving that for now other than recognizing the confusion can exist.)

    In a recession, the “bet” is that the surge in consumer spending will be faster and overwhelm the downside of inflation. The cuts aren’t quite as drastic as rebates, but… ok, carrying my analogy that rebates are a defibrillator for the economy, the cuts are shots of adrenaline. The shots can be too much or too little, and they can be too late. IMO, these are too little too late – worse, they’re treating a symptom. For what it’s worth, sometimes you have to treat a symptom so the patient lives long enough to work on the main problem. Again, I think it’s a bit too late.

    My two cents of “what to watch for” today: watch for the circuit breakers. In simple terms, the NYSE tries to slow down panic drops if the fall is too much too fast. The first “time out” is when the DJIA drops 10% – 1350 points. If we hit any of the circuit breakers today, I’m calling the opening of the Second Great Depression. If we can avoid that, it’s “just” going to be a nasty recession.

  21. 21.

    TheFountainHead

    So if the dollar keeps dropping and the election goes to the GOP, why exactly shouldn’t I move to Thailand?

  22. 22.

    Bob In Pacifica

    Things are fine here under the bridge. The only thing we’ve noticed is that when people throw their trash out of their car windows as they zip by there’s less crumbs to eat.

  25. 25.

    zzyzx

    Inflation isn’t always a bad thing… says the guy who would love to see his mortgage payment become a smaller percentage of his paycheck.

    “If we hit any of the circuit breakers today, I’m calling the opening of the Second Great Depression.”

    If I had a dollar for every time I heard someone on the Internet predict the next Great Depression, I wouldn’t need to worry about the economy at all. I guess that’s more fun (or at least more dramatic) than saying we might have a slowdown.

  27. 27.

    Dennis - SGMM

    The Yahoo! finance webpage is reporting DJIA at 3919. I assume this is a glitch.

    It’s a prophecy.

  28. 28.

    Kirk Spencer

    ZZYZY – reread what I said, this time noting the qualifiers. “IF” we hit the circuit breakers today, I’ll call it so. Otherwise “just” a nasty recession.

    If I really unleash my paranoid side I can point out how history says to avoid a recession that’s at this stage – that is, all indicators say we’re in it but suddenly a lot of indicators reverse. That’s starting a war (or massively surging in an existing war). I really don’t want to go there.

  31. 31.

    RareSanity

    Doesn’t dropping the interest rate THAT much just fuel inflation like crazy?

    Normally, yes. But, when you couple the interest rate cut with the “credit crunch”, you pretty much get zero sum. Kirk Spencer is right, too little, too late.

  32. 32.

    zzyzx

    ““IF” we hit the circuit breakers today, I’ll call it so”

    I’m just saying that we’ve hit the breakers before and people have called it before in those cases. I remember the “New Great Depression” party that the leftists at Bard threw during the 1987 stock market crash for that matter.

  33. 33.

    zzyzx

    I will agree, btw, that things don’t look peachy keen at this moment. It’s just that depressions are pretty rare things.

    …of course, no one saw one coming in the 20s either…

  34. 34.

    Caidence (fmr. Chris)

    -300 so far. Could be worse.

    If my market sense is right (which it shouldn’t be), the doubters will push back to -200 before falling to -400.

    My second miserable call following that is: tomorrow starts up 50, finishes down -100.

  36. 36.

    demimondian

    Remember, kids, that the Great Depression wasn’t just a horrific recession. It was a sequence of recessions followed by weak recoveries, all of which were triggered by massive infusions of capital by the central bank. (All I can say is “Thank God for FDR.”) That’s rather like the history of the Japanese economy in the last decade, and is likely to be the pattern we experience ere for the next few years.

    Of course, it does mean that Social Security will become popular with young people, who will begin to understand why a government funded pension is so important to fall back upon.

  37. 37.

    Walker

    Normally, yes. But, when you couple the interest rate cut with the “credit crunch”, you pretty much get zero sum.

    Exhibit A: Japan

    Actually, it is not zero sum; it is deflation. But Bernanke has promised to pass out free money on street corners before that happens.

  38. 38.

    Caidence (fmr. Chris)

    How crazy does the Ron Paul Dollar look now, eh?

    It never did. Ron Paul, on the other hand…

    But remember, here, position papers aren’t enough. You have to be able to teach barely-functional morons most aspects of your presidential agenda in a 30 minute stump. With a smile.

    Or you’re obviously not ready to get in that Chimp-sweat stained flightsuit. It’s a hard job!

  39. 39.

    Caidence (fmr. Chris)

    Where’s the best place to get up to minute stock info?

    up-to-the-minute usually involves a paid account. If you have an (online-enabled) brokerage, should be free.

    If you don’t, you end up paying out the ass.

    Tick-by-tick, don’t even ask. It’s about $1000/mo.+ and redundant servers sucking off a raw T3. Don’t even ask me about that project. Arg.

  40. 40.

    maxbaer (not the original)

    My portfolios have taken a major hit the last few months. As someone who has been investing and learning hard lessons about it for the last 16 years, I’ve seen a few rough patches. Each time, you think that it’s 1929 all over again. So far, it hasn’t been. Maybe this time will be different. Chances are that the market will come back,tho. If you refused to buy into the 9/11 fearmongering, then don’t buy into this either. At the worst, you end up working a few years longer or delaying a few purchases. Sorry to be so Pollyanna.

  42. 42.

    Ryan S.

    The floor of the Stock Exchange???

    Not very convenient when one lives out in Kansas, CNN.com is still showing last Mondays numbers( yes I tried ctrl f5).

  43. 43.

    cleek

    eTrade.com has the 20-minute-delayed #s. CNN.com is usually reallllly slow in getting the DJIA numbers going in the mornings.

  44. 44.

    Caidence (fmr. Chris)

    Maybe that’s why the FBI confiscated them?

    Whoa, what the hell? That certainly sets off conspiracy flags. It’s probably on the level, though.

    Anyone know how much all that gold, silver, platinum, etc., was worth?

    It might not be worth anything, if there’s a provision that says the tender must be backed by a not-yet-signed contract. If the minting company didn’t “activate” the currency and bind it to actual gold, then they might just have seized a bunch of paper.

    Those gold coins, however, might be something.

  46. 46.

    Caidence (fmr. Chris)

    This can only be good for McCain. As the economy goes further into the tank watch voters flock for comfort to the gray-haired guy who’s been around forever. That’s not rational but when things go south people tend to vote with their lizard brains.

    Neutered Fixed

  47. 47.

    RareSanity

    Actually, it is not zero sum; it is deflation.

    Agreed.

    Throwing money out of the helicopter won’t help this…Unless he’s throwing out enough for people to pay off bad mortgages.

    What’s the over/under on Congress making “investors” fix ARM loans? I say 3 months.

  48. 48.

    The Grand Panjandrum

    Yep, I’m aware of that. Haven’t sold anything. It’s just depressing to look at!

    Why? Do you buy deposit into your 401K monthly, quarterly or annually? Because this current market is what I call a buying opportunity. I’ve a serious investor for almost 25 years, and made substantial gains in every market down turn. Many companies are good solid businesses with plenty of upside potential but are caught in the panic psychology of the short term investor sell off. As a matter of fact I am looking at a bank with solid fundamentals with no long term debt. A little more due diligence, and I suspect I will make a purchase.

    The real pain is going to come when most consumers realize that the blue jeans (t-shirts, socks, etc) they have been paying the exact same price for since 1995 will suddenly see those prices go up. Southern China, where most of the clothing industry is now centered, is under pressure to raise prices because of the rising cost of material and labor.

    Don’t be surprised if your blue jeans are made in Africa five years from now.

  49. 49.

    Caidence (fmr. Chris)

    W

    here’s the best place to get up to minute stock info?

    Yahoo.

    Nope. Yahoo delays unless you pay for it.

    Blame the NYSE. It’s a horrible racket.

  50. 50.

    Punchy

    Not very convenient when one lives out in Kansas, CNN.com is still showing last Mondays numbers( yes I tried ctrl f5).

    Kansas here, too. Yahoo! Finance goes at it live, I believe. Cbsmarketwatch also bueno.

    Yeah, market not going to go undie -4C today. Will finny -250+, but prolly tank again tomorrow. Slow bleeding is so much less CNN-able than a crash. Republicans must have done a lot of praying, and God felt bad for ’em.

  51. 51.

    Kirk Spencer

    Demimondian:

    It [Great Depression] was a sequence of recessions followed by weak recoveries, all of which were triggered by massive infusions of capital by the central bank.

    OK, I’m going to have to research this because it doesn’t square with… First major question, since the US didn’t leave the gold standard till 1933, how did the central bank make massive infusions of capital? Like I said, I’ll research it, but appreciate any leads.

  52. 52.

    Robert Sneddon

    Yahoo! finance DJIA numbers are now 32.18. Looks like the genius! PHP! programmers! at Yoohoo! have picked up another index from somewhere and are mainlining it into the DJIA webpage.

    The BBC (bbc.co.uk) webpages seem to be correct. Their NYSE numbers are delayed 20 minutes, like all the other free news services.

  53. 53.

    RSA

    Not only did it change to all caps, I misspelled it. zzyzx, not ZZYZY.

    As someone who wasted too much time playing Adventure on a Unix box back in the ’80s, I usually misread it as “xyzzy”.

  54. 54.

    Caidence (fmr. Chris)

    OK, I’ll say it in bold, people aren’t seeing this:

    Up-to-the-minute quotes are expensive. Like, car-insurance expensive.

    The only way to get quotes is to join a brokerage and they’ll subsidize it for you so you’ll do business with them.

    Otherwise, everybody else will need some sort of compensation because the contracts to distribute data to other people are iron-clad, and demand homage be paid.

  55. 55.

    zzyzx

    Zzyzx is the name of a road on I-15 between Vegas and LA. I saw it in 1986, and thought it was cool. Here I am 22 years later still using it…

  57. 57.

    B-$

    Now, is “yuan” one syllable or two? If it’s pronounced “Juan” it’ll be a lot easier once we convert over, but we’ll have some difficulties here in South Austin. How many yuan, Juan?

  58. 58.

    Ryan S.

    Up-to-the-minute quotes are expensive. Like, car-insurance expensive.

    Really cause 700 dollars a year ain’t that bad.

  59. 59.

    Sensitive Pony Tailed Girly Man

    Ouch,ouch,ouch, ouch! I knew there was a reason I wasn’t looking. About 2 months ago when I last checked I had about 460,000 (I’m pushing 50), this morning 406,000.

  60. 60.

    Caidence (fmr. Chris)

    Really cause 700 dollars a year ain’t that bad.

    That’s true, especially when you do what I do, but Yahoo/Google/NYT et al. are not going to pay that much for you just so you can get your pain in real-time.

  61. 61.

    Dreggas

    zzyzx Says:

    Zzyzx is the name of a road on I-15 between Vegas and LA. I saw it in 1986, and thought it was cool. Here I am 22 years later still using it…

    Yep, it’s also a town here in California. Leave it to people in the middle of the desert to name a town using those letters. LOL.

  62. 62.

    Dreggas

    On the topic at hand. I fear even looking at my 401(k) so I don’t, at least not right now. However as I keep saying throwing more money on the fire ain’t going to fix this. First off one of the biggest problems is the amount of private debt in the form of credit card bills and mortgages. You send 800 to joe schmoe he will try to pay off that debt before going on a spending spree at Wal-Mart.

    Correct me if I am wrong but wasn’t one of the causes of the first Great Depression easy credit and large amounts of private debt?

  63. 63.

    kchiker

    Punchy Says:

    Kansas here, too.

    Wow. Kansas/Missouri border here. Is Balloon Juice the official blog of the KC area?

  64. 64.

    zzyzx

    “Yep, it’s also a town here in California.”

    same place. There’s actually an interesting history behind the place. The guy who made it was a bit of a freak.

  65. 65.

    Jake

    Finally those capitalist pigs will pay for their crimes, eh comrades?

    Yep, right after rainbow colored pigs fly out of my ass.

    I wrote my CongressCritters this morning to ask if there would be an investigation into the causes of this fiasco. As it is we’re looking at Distract-o-Vision Part XXVII from BushCo Productions. I could use the cash but I’d rather see the crooks responsible for this shit strung up by their balls.

  66. 66.

    Joshua

    Yeah, I’m trying not to look at my IRA statements. Even though I, like Michael, won’t be retiring for over 30 years, the thought of all that money spiraling down a drain is rather depressing.

  67. 67.

    The Other Steve

    Zzyzx is the name of a road on I-15 between Vegas and LA. I saw it in 1986, and thought it was cool. Here I am 22 years later still using it…

    Did you know there is a movie?

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zyzzyx_Road

    Katherine Heigl and Tom Sizemore… can’t be all bad. had $30 in box office receipts.

  68. 68.

    D-Chance.

    Dreggas Says:
    You send 800 to joe schmoe he will try to pay off that debt before going on a spending spree at Wal-Mart.

    We’re talking about the average American consumer. Of COURSE, they’ll go on the spending spree. Welcome to the “I want it all, and I want it now… for free (if Queen doesn’t mind that last slight lyric addition)” generation.

  69. 69.

    Caidence (fmr. Chris)

    Correct me if I am wrong but wasn’t one of the causes of the first Great Depression easy credit and large amounts of private debt?

    That’s what provided the tie-up in capital, but the malfunction was allowing banks to invest money, which was functionally a singularity in the system. It caused the money itself to be separated from its value… so while everyone was happily making a fortune in money, the all-important value was evaporating off of it. Then when they looked down and said, “Hey now, this money should be able to buy me a new house… oh, noes!”

    If I look at the Wiki article on it, I’ll remember what the exact failure was.

    There was also another trigger involving Britain and gold… it’s fuzzy.

  70. 70.

    Punchy

    Wow. Kansas/Missouri border here. Is Balloon Juice the official blog of the KC area?

    I’ll say yes. And if any of this message is lined-out, it aint by me. Apparently this crapola blog just decides what words to strike out, randomly. How’s a man supposed to spoof if s/he never knows what shizzle makes the final cut?

    I’m currently near the KC/MO border. Lenexa.

  71. 71.

    Caidence (fmr. Chris)

    If I look at the Wiki article on it, I’ll remember what the exact failure was.

    Disregard that, Wiki is vague on the subject. It just says it was a bubble.

    But it wasn’t just a bubble, it a WTF-iz-dat?! Bubble.

    I remember: It’s because the Banks were providing leverage so that the middle class could invest in the stock market, but that leverage was based on unrealized earnings from client’s money that they themselves had invested in the stock market. The middle class was investing with unrealized money, instead of thoroughly-checked-credit based loans.

    After that went down, Congress sifted through the mechanism and said “waitasec, that doesn’t make any damned sense, what were you doing that for?!”. The Banks said “We were creating as much value as we could, that’s what banks do”.

    From the bank’s standpoint, it was the correct thing to do, but from a system-omniscient standpoint it was a singularity. Congress prohibited banks from investing the stock market and that particularly nasty bug hasn’t shown up lately.

  72. 72.

    merciless

    I asked the husband if he was worried about the markets (where he has a fair bit of change). He said no, he’d lived through the last few downturns and he’ll live through this one. In fact, he said, if the markets go down enough, he might buy.

    That’s what he did in ’87, and it worked out pretty well.

    This is the trick. Buy low, sell high. And don’t look at the real-time stuff, it’ll just make you crazy.

    BTW, yea for the MO/KS border! My mom’s family is from a bit north of St. Jo, right up in the northwest corner of the state. Beautiful country.

  73. 73.

    Caidence (fmr. Chris)

    This is the trick. Buy low, sell high.

    /head palm

    It scares me how many times people repeat this, like it’s
    a.) That mysterious
    b.) That simple.
    c.) That low-risk.

    Please tell your husband to check his fundamentals before he pulls 1987 again. It’s not 1987. Not only has market personality changed fundamentally in the last 20 years, as it should, but the introduction of computing solutions has also made the market bi-polar and jittery.

    Keep repeating: This is not 1987.

  75. 75.

    Dreggas

    D-Chance. Says:

    Dreggas Says:
    You send 800 to joe schmoe he will try to pay off that debt before going on a spending spree at Wal-Mart.

    We’re talking about the average American consumer. Of COURSE, they’ll go on the spending spree. Welcome to the “I want it all, and I want it now… for free (if Queen doesn’t mind that last slight lyric addition)” generation.

    Depends, most I talk to plan to pay bills. Then again most I talk to aren’t completely ignorant tools.

  77. 77.

    Jake

    Atrios has a great quote from FDL:

    Man, there’d be some ugly riots going on right now. People setting fire to their walkers and canes and throwing them over the fence around the White House, pelting members of Congress with dentures and orthopaedic shoes.

    Thank God for the AARP.

  78. 78.

    TR

    I’m currently near the KC/MO border. Lenexa.

    Lived in Lenexa until I was 7. Do I qualify if all I remember is the Zarda ice cream store near our house?

  79. 79.

    grumpy realist

    Also should point out that it’s doubtful we’ll have the 20 years of the gloom-and-doom of the Japanese real estate market. Their problems was that nobody marked down the stuff they had on the books and it just dragged on and on.

    By contrast, right now we’re seeing a huge amount of write-downs going on. Who will lose? People holding CDOs, pension funds who decided to play in the mudpile, a buncha hedge funds. There will be a lot of houses handed back to the banks via jingle mail, when people realise that a) they’re upside down on their mortgages, b) they’ve signed up for paying mortgages for far more than the house is worth–so why not hand the keys back? Banks will go ballistic and scream about collapse of ethics etc., but considering that the banks/mortgage people/realtors/whatever were acting in some pretty non-fiduciary ways, I have little sympathy for them. So jingle mail will become common, and a lot of people will walk away from large, oversized, overpriced McMansions, willing to take the hit on their credit score for the opportunity to get rid of a large monstrosity around their necks.

  80. 80.

    merciless

    It scares me how many times people repeat this, like it’s
    a.) That mysterious
    b.) That simple.
    c.) That low-risk.

    Caidence, I don’t think it’s any of those things. It’s tough, it’s high-risk, and it’s how the rich people make money on the stock market. The husband also set himself up by having cash on hand and no debts. People who have lots of debt, or have put real assets (like their house) on the line are going to suffer terribly.

    (BTW, when I say “the husband” and not us, I mean that he’d done all this stuff before we ever got married. I’m just a poor working woman.)

    I think you’re right about it not being like 1987 either. I think it’s going to be much worse, and much more projected. For all I know, the husband may be incredibly stupid by not selling everything now and buying a farm. We both may end up working until we drop dead, if we can keep our jobs.

    I don’t know.

  81. 81.

    Caidence (fmr. Chris)

    I think you’re right about it not being like 1987 either. I think it’s going to be much worse, and much more projected. For all I know, the husband may be incredibly stupid by not selling everything now and buying a farm. We both may end up working until we drop dead, if we can keep our jobs.

    Since you have ably dismissed the carefree tone of your previous post, I am going to shut up and say nothing so i don’t alter the correct state of mind you happen to be in.

  82. 82.

    carpeicthus

    I’m glad at this point that I didn’t ditch the paycheck job (with a pension) to go all freelance, given that a lot of what I offer (wedding photography) is a luxury item.

  83. 83.

    tractor

    Buy-and-hold investors (and those who believe the trick is simply “buy low, sell high”) should consider that the all-time high in the nasdaq was in 2000 at 5132, and is today at 2293. The S&P made a new high this year, but barely over the 2000 level. We are in a global bear market right now. Many financial companies are technically insolvent, housing is not ready to recover anytime soon, and the dollar continues to lose ground. With today’s rate cut, the fed has very little ammo left. It is very possible to buy low and see your investment go lower still. Those continuing to hold stocks should ensure they preserve their capital, and should realize that the markets will almost certainly go lower in the near-term, and could take a long time to recover. Take a look at the ten-year chart of the nasdaq, or Microsoft, and consider how well a buy-and-hold philosophy has worked during this decade. To say that you haven’t lost money if you haven’t sold the stock is ridiculous. Your equity is determined by your share price times number of shares, period.

  84. 84.

    Peter Johnson

    This is what happens when you have a Democratic Congress. Knowing them, they’ll use this as an excuse to push for new taxes.

    The good news is this pretty much guarantees a Republican win in 2008. The bad news is that win may be John McCain.

  85. 85.

    Caidence (fmr. Chris)

    This is what happens when you have a Democratic Congress. Knowing them, they’ll use this as an excuse to push for new taxes.

    The good news is this pretty much guarantees a Republican win in 2008. The bad news is that win may be John McCain.

    Considering this forum is place for well-reasoned snark (hence my membership), I would wonder whether you wandered into the wrong website, or are a previously sane poster who hit his head.

    Democratic Congress. Subprime was invented, matured, and started bubbling under the Repub. Congress, and Repub. Executive oversight. Dems only lose points for inaction (their solution to everything)

    this pretty much guarantees a Republican win in 2008. Did you forget about how our current Republican executive has horribly, horribly perverted the American governing and justice system, and most voters know it?

    A downturn during this session of Congress could very well switch the Congress to the Republicans, but the Presidency will go Dem as a rebuke to Bush, if not Republican-executives in general. And that disparity is good for all of us.

    good news Umm, what? Big fan of keeping torture and indefinite detention of American citizens around, are you?

  86. 86.

    wingnuts to iraq

    LOL at Peter Johnson. Someone shoot him in the head. I don’t want to be a citizen in the same country as this moron.

  87. 87.

    wingnuts to iraq

    seriously Peter Johnson, do us all a favor and go kill yourself, your wife (if you have one) and all your children. You are a worthless piece of shit.

  90. 90.

    Caidence (fmr. Chris)

    Holy crap, Dregs, are you saying that it would be a wise idea to find credit-worthy people, instead of just lending money to anyone?

    Wow, that sounds like it just might work! I’m gonna call the banks right-quick and inform them of this novel idea!

    jackass banks…

  91. 91.

    ThymeZone

    Are we doing disclosures today?

    I have lost a small amount in equities, I have a weird portfolio that is sort of crash-resistant. I have stayed out of stocks for the most part in the last year, and all in all my nest egg is still in decent shape …. today.

    Of course, if we visit Deep Recession territory, I could be hurtin for certain like most people. Or if I lose my health insurance and my ticker goes (further) south — that’s my own personal ticker and not my stock ticker — then I am screwed.

    I think right now the most likely main effect is that I will have to keep working a few extra years to make up for the Bush Effect, if I can survive Republican Healthcare long enough to do so.

    So …. trying to stay optimistic here.

  92. 92.

    Zuzu

    Yeah, I’m trying not to look at my IRA statements. Even though I, like Michael, won’t be retiring for over 30 years, the thought of all that money spiraling down a drain is rather depressing.

    I just retired.

    My 40(k) etc. is entirely in savings/CDs or tax free bonds/bond funds. One small stock investment that has actually doubled in value, but that’s it. When it got to the point that the mutual funds were losing more than I was putting in, I got chicken.

    Yes, I know I’m a scared little bunny. But for now I can’t see beyond preservation of capital.

  93. 93.

    ThymeZone

    As the economy goes further into the tank watch voters flock for comfort to the gray-haired guy who’s been sniffing around corrupt rich people like Charles Keating forever

    Yeah, right. As the whole thing caves in, people will flock to the party that fucked it all up while their rich cronies got even richer.

    Brilliant!

  94. 94.

    Krista

    wingnuts to iraq, you should be ashamed of yourself. I’m not even going to quote what you said, as it’s too hateful and abhorrent to be repeated, but it seriously makes me wonder what on earth is WRONG with you, that you’d say that to another human being.

  95. 95.

    Caidence (fmr. Chris)

    trying to stay optimistic here.

    OK, I’ll help!

    It’s absolutely stunning that the economy managed to stay afloat with someone with the personal ethos of a 5 year old in the White House. This is likely just the economy correcting for all the damage Republican oligarchic masturbating has caused.

    … yeah… I suck at helping.

  97. 97.

    merciless

    I am going to shut up and say nothing so i don’t alter the correct state of mind you happen to be in.

    LOL! Well, I’m not sure that’ll be enough, since I’m pretty crazy, but I did want to alert you to Wolcott’s post today.

    It’s funnier and scarier than anything I’ve read so far.

  98. 98.

    Caidence (fmr. Chris)

    Wolcott’s post today.

    If you’re talking about Pressing the Panic Button, then don’t worry. It’s more florid than accurate. There will be a bounce, hastened by a democratic president that has an economic advisor with a sense of patriotism. We just don’t know when the bounce will come.

    Oh, we are putting a Dem in office, right?

  100. 100.

    Face

    Wow. Apple just announced, and the stock is getting crushed. Destroyed after hours.

    Market will tank again tomorrow. It’s sick, and getting worse.

  101. 101.

    Caidence (fmr. Chris)

    Wow. Apple just announced, and the stock is getting crushed. Destroyed after hours.

    Market will tank again tomorrow. It’s sick, and getting worse.

    Take a breath, dude. Apple makes luxury products. (I’m Comp. Sci., I know what I’m talking about.)

    Now, given the market’s condition, do you really think that an electronic jewelry manufacturer is going to survive well?

  102. 102.

    Face

    Take a breath, dude. Apple makes luxury products

    Yeah, the Ipod and Itunes are luxury products. Only the rich have ’em. What was I thinking?

    I revise my statement. Apple may tank, but the rest of the market will soar tomorrow. Not Chris says so, ya know, cuz he’s Comp. Sci., and therefore understands finance.

  103. 103.

    wasabi gasp

    Take a breath, dude. Apple makes luxury products. (I’m Comp. Sci., I know what I’m talking about.)

    Now, given the market’s condition, do you really think that an electronic jewelry manufacturer is going to survive well?

    You may know what you’re talking about, but you may wanna figure out what you’re thinking about.

  104. 104.

    Caidence (fmr. Chris)

    Yeah, the Ipod and Itunes are luxury products. Only the rich have ‘em. What was I thinking?

    oookay, maybe I wasn’t clear enough.

    First, check your definition of “luxury”. Means the products have a low utility value, and get purchased LAST on the budget. Your iPod might be your best friend, but no one is going to give you a job based on your iPod knowledge except for Apple.

    So, market go down, people stop buying glitzy crap with 8 processors. (My AMD + Windows piece o’ crap runs Photoshop just fine)

    I revise my statement. Apple may tank, but the rest of the market will soar tomorrow.

    “Take a breath” does not equal “Market is flowers and honey”. I’m saying Apple is by no means an indicator on the economy. It’s been inflated for a while; it’s just a another bubble that’s going POP.

    ya know, cuz he’s Comp. Sci., and therefore understands finance.

    Those creds were to beat out any Apple-Cult hyperventilating. Apple fans get stupid.

    BUT since you bring it up, I’ve worked in finance my entire career, and I’m currently creating my second automatic technical trading system. SO I DO HAVE CREDS IN THAT TOO HAHAHA :P

    /smacks Face, wasabi on the ass
    //you’ll catch me talking stupid next time
    ///but I’m on solid ground on this one.

  105. 105.

    Darkness

    HeartlandLiberal, and other soon-to-be retirees,

    So, correct me if I’m wrong here, but I seem to remember in retirement investing 101 that in the years leading up to retirement, you regularly take little chunks of your high risk stock and other investments and move them to bonds. You can do this for free within the funds available. Dollar cost averaging this move with some regard to keeping some investments at medium risk if you plan to live a long time. But, that may just be me, but that made a lot of sense.

    Punchy, YES, inflation is a big old hoary sasquatch breathing down all our necks already and they are throwing more bait around the homestead. Good god we are screwed. Between screwing over our food production by deciding people should drive instead of eat and sending food prices higher purely on supply and demand of farms, we also have ballooning fuel costs. Fuel is never going down again, and since it is priced in dollars, weakening the dollar does zero for cost of fuel. As the dollar goes down the cost of fuel must go up (in dollars), and since it is a component in just about everything and three times over in bio/ethanol based fuels inflation is set to go red hot. Tossing around cheap money is going to look really stupid in retrospect when inflation hits double digits. Unless we have a really deep recession that cuts fuel demand, we will have inflation.

    The thing to do to take advantage of hyperinflation is take out a large fixed-rate 30 year mortgage and let inflation pay it off for you. Hold NO adjustable rate debt at the worst case.

  106. 106.

    Chuck Butcher

    The market doing bad isn’t good for my construction business, and neither is having good credit turned down. People re-fi to pay for much of what I do, others use investment funds. A bad market makes people worry about their jobs, those don’t spend money, either. The end of 08 may see me in a bad place, a very bad place.

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