Remember the new law passed by the Iraqi Parliament that dimwitted people like me were linking, hoping it meant that the necessary political reconciliation was starting to take place (and thus the surge was not a total waste of time)?
Guess what. It was bullshit:
“This new law is very confusing,” Awadi said. “I don’t really know what it means for me.”
He is not alone. More than a dozen Iraqi lawmakers, U.S. officials and former Baathists here and in exile expressed concern in interviews that the law could set off a new purge of ex-Baathists, the opposite of U.S. hopes for the legislation.
Approved by parliament this month under pressure from U.S. officials, the law was heralded by President Bush and Iraqi leaders as a way to soothe the deep anger of many ex-Baathists — primarily Sunnis but also many Shiites such as Awadi — toward the Shiite-led government.
Yet U.S. officials and even legislators who voted for the measure, which still requires approval by Iraq’s presidency council, acknowledge that its impact is hard to assess from its text and will depend on how it is implemented. Some say the law’s primary aim is not to return ex-Baathists to work, but to recognize and compensate those harmed by the party. Of the law’s eight stated justifications, none mentions reinstating ex-Baathists to their jobs.
“The law is about as clear as mud,” said one U.S. senior diplomat.
Good times.
We need to just pull out of that shithole, and Petraeus’s plan to slow down the violence has worked, but giving him another Friedman Unit is not going to fix the real problems over there. Especially when he is saying stuff like this:
We think we won’t know that we’ve reached a turning point until we’re six months past it. We have repeatedly said that there is no lights at the end of the tunnel that we’re seeing. We’re certainly not dancing in the end zone or anything like that.
In other words, permanent war, at least until peace breaks out. But we won’t know that it is peaceful until 6 months after it has already happened. Or something.
Operation Dump This Mess on the Next President continues in earnest.
Zifnab
If I understand the law correctly – from other blogs and NPR – you basically have to stand up and declare yourself a former Baathist in front of a bunch of Shiite political officials, many of whom have connections to the Al-Sadr militias.
Then you have to stand around and wait while they do a bunch of background checks to make sure you aren’t still sporting a twenty inch Saddam-booner in your pants. Then they’ll get back to you about that job opening.
Don’t mind the army of angry Shiite gunmen with axes to grind standing outside waiting for you when you leave.
Davebo
What a coincidence! We won’t know we’re into a recession until six months after it starts either!
Ya gotta admit, there’s a certain symmetry to it all!
just sayin'
Operation Dump This Mess on the Next President is particularly important because Petraeus plans to run against the next President in 2012. It’s hard to see how a lot of “led the Irag occupation” on the resume is going to be helpful by then, but he seems to think so.
J.A.F. Rusty Shackleford
BushCo has always planned on pushing this quagmire onto the next President and blame the entire mess on them.
“The surge was working until those damn dirty America-hating hippies from the DemocRat Party took over.”
Pure misery.
Punchy
Shorter Patraeus — we wont know we’ve turned a corner until six months after we turned it, by which time we’ll have turned 3 more corners, leaving us exactly where we started, until, of course, we turn another corner and wait six months to assess how the corner-turning played out.
rachel
Gee, this isn’t looking so great; maybe we need another short, victorious war to distract the populace from how much it all sucks. (For the sci-fi geeks out there: yes, this is an allusion to the Republic of Haven.)
mark
Via the Carpetbagger, Think Progress has an interactive timeline of Friedman Units and general goalpost movement.
cleek
thanks again, wingnuts.
mark
Oops, the ultimate source is the Center for American Progress.
bob
The return of the eternal Friedman unit.
Scotty
Gotta love no accountability. And if McCain wins the GOP nomination there are certainly a number of damning statements from him. And based on his projection of us being in Iraq for the next 100 years, that means we only have 200 Friedman Units to go. Who wants to start a countdown ticker?
Face
Not surprised.
Jen
Make sure you go to the very beginning of the timeline.
And ponder, the Straight Talk Express.
Rick Taylor
That’s why if you should regularly read John Cole‘s site, or atleast some source where the author knows arabic; John cole was pointing out this was bogus well over a week ago.
Rick Taylor
Sorry, I missed the important part of the quote; I’m using an outdated browser that isn’t showing preview properly.
Cyrus
Meh, your post a couple weeks ago was pretty cautious and equivocal, and you didn’t use it as an excuse to rub who-knows-what in the faces of us eeevil liberals. Optimism, in and of itself, isn’t a crime.
The Grand Panjandrum
Juan Cole had this examination of the legislation ten days ago.
Once again defeat is snatched from the jaws of victory. Jesus! Any wonder Americans are sick and tired of the former Cheerleader and his gang of War Criminals. If so many people weren’t dying I’d make a snarky comment about The Gang That Couldn’t Shoot Straight.
Jen
We need to just trust that this will all work out very soon.
The Grand Panjandrum
Sorry Rick! Didn’t see your post. But good on ya. Juan Cole usually has a petty sober take on most of the breathless commentary about all the “success” or the Surge.
The Grand Panjandrum
And I’m sure they’ll respect us in the morning, too.
apishapa
Well, I kind of thought he started saying about 6 months ago that we had turned the corner, so we ought to be ready to move out.
RSA
Me: So, who do you think will win the Super Bowl this year?
Petraeus: We won’t even know who’s playing in it until next summer.
TenguPhule
There is one born every minute, John.
Why must you always repeat the experience?
It would be a lot easier and more accurate if you start off with the view that anything Republicans, the Government or the US Military says now is a lie until proven otherwise.
Jake
Bets: How long until he’s shit canned for talking like a defeatocrat?
Incertus (Brian)
SOP by now ought to be to expect the opposite of whatever the administration, and wait for a couple of weeks for it to happen, assuming it takes that long.
Zifnab
Pessimism, however, is a hanging offense in some quarters of the wingnut-o-sphere. After all, pessimism has a notorious liberal jihado-fascist bias.
John Cole
Cut me some slack. I am trying to be more skeptical and cynical, but you have to admit that claiming a bill that continues de-baathification and will inflame the rivalries is actually the reconciliation we have all been waiting for is brazen even for these folks.
Rick Taylor
That’s why it’s important to read some experts who are able to read (in this case) arabic and follow the foreign press. The mass media in this country by and large does no such investigation, so you have to to not be fooled.
Pb
John Cole,
Nothing “is brazen even for these folks”. Weren’t you just posting about Jose Padilla the other day? They’re fine with locking up a US citizen on trumped-up charges, holding him without trial, breaking his mind, making an end-run around the courts so they can continue this practice, and ultimately get him convicted and sentenced on totally different charges, and resulted in precisely zero American citizens being harmed — in this case, one less than the government harmed!
Lying about a bill doesn’t even come close.
Jake
No. It. Isn’t.
Stop clutching those pearls and pay attention.
If people make shit up so they can invade a country, you are not allowed to be shocked, surprised or otherwise nonplussed by anything else they do, ever.
If we thought you were too stupid to understand this we’d cut you some slack or go somewhere else.
srv
John and Juan aren’t talking right now, Juan liked Steely McBeam.
Zifnab
It’s about on par with all the rest of the “We’re winning in Iraq” bullshit they spout. Come on, John. You remember McCain and Lieberman walking down the streets of Baghdad with an entire battalion hedging them in as they claimed the streets were perfectly safe. Is this really anything less than par for the course?
STEVEinSC
When this de-de-baathification thing came out with shrub in the m.e. what part of (parapharse from AP) “145 of the 295 person iraqi parliament voted unanimous show of hands in favor after the Sunnis walked out” didn’t arouse any suspicions?
Caidence (fmr. Chris)
Am I the only person that thinks this is the downside of the 22nd?
Anyone else?
Rick Taylor
Take heart, John, there are still even more gullible bloggers about. From Captain Ed:
Yup. It’s not that our invasion of Iraq has been a monumental disaster that’s the problem, a five year quagmire pinning down a hundred thousand Amercian troops, costing hundreds of billions of dollars, killings hundreds of thousands of people, creating a few million refugees, and with no end in sight that was sold as a cheap quick solution (Iraqi oil would pay for the reconstruction) to a (what turned out to be) nonexistent threat. No, it’s liberals like us who are so determined to portray whatever happens as failure when things are just beginning to turn around. Ugh. You’d think after the last five years, some conservatives would develop a little bit of skepticism when the light at the end of the tunnel approaches yet again? Or at least show a little hesitation in gleefully bashing liberals who were, you know, right about there being no weapons of mass destruction, and who thought the results of the invasion might be a horrific mess. Ugh.
Tsulagi
Translation: The Iraqi executive branch is still studying the finer nuances of democracy before fully signing off on this legislation. They’re looking for examples in our “honor and integrity” administration on how to take their baby steps.
Especially looking at those democracy enhancers like executive findings. You know, those findings that go something along the lines of “Yeah, I signed this sucker, but as war-time decider I and my administration get to do whatever the fuck we want so it don’t mean shit.” Takes a while to translate into Arabic and Islamic fatwas/executive findings.
Rick Taylor
Actually, in retrospect, it seems almost inevitable. It’s been clear for a long while that the Iraqi government has zero interest in reconciliation; Maliki has said as much, and the Sadrists in the government would never stand for it. Second, we’ve been putting pressure on them to pass a debaathification law, it’s one of the benchmarks. So it’s not at all surprising in retrospect that the Iraqi government would pass a law and call it debaathification to appease us. And it’s not surprising the current administration would take them at their word, as it’s been an embarrassment that this hasn’t been passed up until now. And of course finding out what really happened at the time requires reading the foreign press which, you know, isn’t necessarily in English, so no one figures it out until a week or so later.
Sinister eyebrow
When John posted the original cautious optimism commentary on this development (I’ll give John credit here–it was more cautious than even cautious optimism suggests … more like “it sounds like it might possibly be progress but I’m not sure of anything coming from these jokers”) I called it lipstick on a pig.
Now that it is shown to in fact be lipstick on said pig, what do I win?
STEVEinSC
Hand raised with obvious misplaced optomism from student who knows answer: “I know, I know, you get a pig with lipstick on it. “
Tsulagi
Someone should tell the good general the “tunnel” he’s in is actually a mine shaft. There ain’t no light at the bottom. But he already knows that…
Bullshit
Jake
OT, but elsewhere in the Mid-East, the Egyptian economy is getting a boost.
Well I don’t want to [mumble] but um [hums softly], this certainly … Look! A seagull!
Absolutely fuckulous.
Rick Taylor
Why you get to be derided as a treasonous liberal who wants us to lose, and to be taunted again when the next light at the end of the tunnel comes along.
HyperIon
It would be a lot easier and more accurate if you start off with the view that anything Republicans, the Government or the US Military says now is a lie until proven otherwise.
the best spin: this has been a 7 year teach-in on why everyone needs to QUESTION AUTHORITY.
Rick Taylor
A big part of the problem is that the press in this country is largely useless. What would be the natural thing to do in the wake of a breakthrough as this was supposed to be? Look at the arabic press, talk to people in Iraq, especially the Sunni’s who’ve been complaining, see what they say. It wouldn’t have taken long to discover that those supposedly benefiting from the law didn’t like it, while those Sadrists who’d opposed any sort of reconciliation until now supported it.
Dennis - SGMM
As a lifelong Democrat and an unrepentant liberal I would add the Democrats to the above.
Anyone else remember “The end of the Rubber Stamp Congress” in ’06?
srv
It’s worked great for me for about 27 years.
Tony J
Just Bush-Democracy in action folks.
Al-Maliki’s rump regime royally pisses off the Shia majority in Parliament by helping the US get the Occupation re-legitimised by the UN in violation of Iraqi law – since the Parliament had already voted to make it illegal for the PM to do any such thing without their approval (Yay for sovereignty!) – and thus continue the Surge policy of arming and funding the Sunni militias formerly known as The Insurgency in the expectation of a US or Israeli attack on Shia Iran.
Al-Maliki’s rump regime pleases the Shia majority in Parliament no end by giving them an opportunity to effectively cut the Sunni minority out of official Iraqi society with full US backing. Which basically guarantees that Iraq’s civil-war is going to be a fight to the death regardless of how many US troops are in the region.
Everyone in the wingnutosphere points to how Teh Surge has led to ‘political reconciliation’, while sniggering to each other at the prospect of a Democratic White House having to deal with the shitstorm their Leader is going to leave behind.
Bush-Democracy – It’s all about doing whatever the fuck you want and leaving someone else to clean up the mess.
r€nato
and on Jan 21, 2009, wingnuts will be screaming, “Why hasn’t President (Clinton or Obama) fixed Iraq yet? Democrats lost Iraq!”
Jake
Tony J
As long as there’s no peace in Iraq, there’s always a ‘need’ for US troops to be stationed there. Ergo, the worse you make it in 2008, the more likely it is you can pick up where you left off in 2012, while also being nicely positioned to co-opt the Mayan Apocalypse and ride your pony to Raptureland.
Or, more seriously, though no less accurately, yes, you’re right.
Delia
There’s no light at the end of the tunnel because the tunnel is a black hole. And it just keeps getting bigger the more stuff you shovel down it.
Zifnab
Ugh. Why did you have to remind me? I remember whole campaign on that. What lameness.
Peter Johnson
Damned if you do, damned if you don’t. If Bush doesn’t do this, he’s stubborn. If he does, he gets this kind of ill-informed snark. De-baatification was a mistake, as this administration has admitted many times. Now that’s being rectified.
That’s what strong leadership is: not crying on David Gregory’s shoulder about all the mistakes you’ve made, but setting them right when have occurred.
Smart, strong.
bob
Setting things right since 2001, the Dub-Ya administration.
TenguPhule
These people break the law openly without fear of prosecution or condemnation.
Stop letting Lucy sucker you with that Football.
TenguPhule
Wrong. This administration was for it before it was against it. And look how well it has turned out.
If by rectified you mean “We fucking lied to you stupid bitches”, then yes.
And just as obviously there is no strong leadership to see here.
Because not one thing has been set right, but far too many set wrong by the Idiot who appoints himself king.