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You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War / The De-De-Ba’athification

The De-De-Ba’athification

by John Cole|  January 23, 200810:34 am| 56 Comments

This post is in: War

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Remember the new law passed by the Iraqi Parliament that dimwitted people like me were linking, hoping it meant that the necessary political reconciliation was starting to take place (and thus the surge was not a total waste of time)?

Guess what. It was bullshit:

“This new law is very confusing,” Awadi said. “I don’t really know what it means for me.”

He is not alone. More than a dozen Iraqi lawmakers, U.S. officials and former Baathists here and in exile expressed concern in interviews that the law could set off a new purge of ex-Baathists, the opposite of U.S. hopes for the legislation.

Approved by parliament this month under pressure from U.S. officials, the law was heralded by President Bush and Iraqi leaders as a way to soothe the deep anger of many ex-Baathists — primarily Sunnis but also many Shiites such as Awadi — toward the Shiite-led government.

Yet U.S. officials and even legislators who voted for the measure, which still requires approval by Iraq’s presidency council, acknowledge that its impact is hard to assess from its text and will depend on how it is implemented. Some say the law’s primary aim is not to return ex-Baathists to work, but to recognize and compensate those harmed by the party. Of the law’s eight stated justifications, none mentions reinstating ex-Baathists to their jobs.

“The law is about as clear as mud,” said one U.S. senior diplomat.

Good times.

We need to just pull out of that shithole, and Petraeus’s plan to slow down the violence has worked, but giving him another Friedman Unit is not going to fix the real problems over there. Especially when he is saying stuff like this:

We think we won’t know that we’ve reached a turning point until we’re six months past it. We have repeatedly said that there is no lights at the end of the tunnel that we’re seeing. We’re certainly not dancing in the end zone or anything like that.

In other words, permanent war, at least until peace breaks out. But we won’t know that it is peaceful until 6 months after it has already happened. Or something.

Operation Dump This Mess on the Next President continues in earnest.

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56Comments

  1. 1.

    Zifnab

    January 23, 2008 at 10:43 am

    If I understand the law correctly – from other blogs and NPR – you basically have to stand up and declare yourself a former Baathist in front of a bunch of Shiite political officials, many of whom have connections to the Al-Sadr militias.

    Then you have to stand around and wait while they do a bunch of background checks to make sure you aren’t still sporting a twenty inch Saddam-booner in your pants. Then they’ll get back to you about that job opening.

    Don’t mind the army of angry Shiite gunmen with axes to grind standing outside waiting for you when you leave.

  2. 2.

    Davebo

    January 23, 2008 at 10:45 am

    We think we won’t know that we’ve reached a turning point until we’re six months past it.

    What a coincidence! We won’t know we’re into a recession until six months after it starts either!

    Ya gotta admit, there’s a certain symmetry to it all!

  3. 3.

    just sayin'

    January 23, 2008 at 10:46 am

    Operation Dump This Mess on the Next President is particularly important because Petraeus plans to run against the next President in 2012. It’s hard to see how a lot of “led the Irag occupation” on the resume is going to be helpful by then, but he seems to think so.

  4. 4.

    J.A.F. Rusty Shackleford

    January 23, 2008 at 10:49 am

    BushCo has always planned on pushing this quagmire onto the next President and blame the entire mess on them.

    “The surge was working until those damn dirty America-hating hippies from the DemocRat Party took over.”

    Pure misery.

  5. 5.

    Punchy

    January 23, 2008 at 10:56 am

    Shorter Patraeus — we wont know we’ve turned a corner until six months after we turned it, by which time we’ll have turned 3 more corners, leaving us exactly where we started, until, of course, we turn another corner and wait six months to assess how the corner-turning played out.

  6. 6.

    rachel

    January 23, 2008 at 10:57 am

    Gee, this isn’t looking so great; maybe we need another short, victorious war to distract the populace from how much it all sucks. (For the sci-fi geeks out there: yes, this is an allusion to the Republic of Haven.)

  7. 7.

    mark

    January 23, 2008 at 11:00 am

    Via the Carpetbagger, Think Progress has an interactive timeline of Friedman Units and general goalpost movement.

  8. 8.

    cleek

    January 23, 2008 at 11:04 am

    thanks again, wingnuts.

  9. 9.

    mark

    January 23, 2008 at 11:06 am

    Via the Carpetbagger, Think Progress has an interactive timeline of Friedman Units and general goalpost movement.

    Oops, the ultimate source is the Center for American Progress.

  10. 10.

    bob

    January 23, 2008 at 11:07 am

    The return of the eternal Friedman unit.

  11. 11.

    Scotty

    January 23, 2008 at 11:13 am

    Think Progress has an interactive timeline of Friedman Units and general goalpost movement.

    Gotta love no accountability. And if McCain wins the GOP nomination there are certainly a number of damning statements from him. And based on his projection of us being in Iraq for the next 100 years, that means we only have 200 Friedman Units to go. Who wants to start a countdown ticker?

  12. 12.

    Face

    January 23, 2008 at 11:20 am

    Remember the new law passed by the Iraqi Parliament that dimwitted people like me were linking,

    Not surprised.

  13. 13.

    Jen

    January 23, 2008 at 11:32 am

    And based on his projection of us being in Iraq for the next 100 years,

    Make sure you go to the very beginning of the timeline.
    And ponder, the Straight Talk Express.

  14. 14.

    Rick Taylor

    January 23, 2008 at 11:32 am

    That’s why if you should regularly read John Cole‘s site, or atleast some source where the author knows arabic; John cole was pointing out this was bogus well over a week ago.

    The passage of the new law will be hailed by the War party as a major achievement. But as usual they will misread what really happened.

    If the new law was good for ex-Baathists, then the ex-Baathists in parliament will have voted for it and praised it, right? And likely the Sadrists (hard line anti-Baath Shiites) and Kurds would be a little upset.

    …

    The Sadrists had demanded that the De-Baathification Commission not be dissolved, but would accept a change in name for it. They had demanded that the Baath Party remain dissolved, and that the high-ranking members of the party be forbidden to enter the new political life or serve as bureaucrats. The Sadrists had also insisted that any high-ranking Baathists presently employed by the new Iraqi government must be fired!

    The headlines are all saying that the law permits Baathists back into public life. It seems actually to demand that they be fired or retired on a pension, and any who are employed are excluded from sensitive ministries

  15. 15.

    Rick Taylor

    January 23, 2008 at 11:34 am

    Sorry, I missed the important part of the quote; I’m using an outdated browser that isn’t showing preview properly.

    If the new law was good for ex-Baathists, then the ex-Baathists in parliament will have voted for it and praised it, right? And likely the Sadrists (hard line anti-Baath Shiites) and Kurds would be a little upset.

    Instead, parliament’s version of this law was spearheaded by Sadrists, and the ex-Baathists in parliament criticized it.

  16. 16.

    Cyrus

    January 23, 2008 at 11:35 am

    Remember the new law passed by the Iraqi Parliament that dimwitted people like me were linking, hoping it meant that the necessary political reconciliation was starting to take place (and thus the surge was not a total waste of time)?

    Meh, your post a couple weeks ago was pretty cautious and equivocal, and you didn’t use it as an excuse to rub who-knows-what in the faces of us eeevil liberals. Optimism, in and of itself, isn’t a crime.

  17. 17.

    The Grand Panjandrum

    January 23, 2008 at 11:38 am

    Juan Cole had this examination of the legislation ten days ago.

    The Sadrists had demanded that the De-Baathification Commission not be dissolved, but would accept a change in name for it. They had demanded that the Baath Party remain dissolved, and that the high-ranking members of the party be forbidden to enter the new political life or serve as bureaucrats. The Sadrists had also insisted that any high-ranking Baathists presently employed by the new Iraqi government must be fired!

    The headlines are all saying that the law permits Baathists back into public life. It seems actually to demand that they be fired or retired on a pension, and any who are employed are excluded from sensitive ministries.

    Once again defeat is snatched from the jaws of victory. Jesus! Any wonder Americans are sick and tired of the former Cheerleader and his gang of War Criminals. If so many people weren’t dying I’d make a snarky comment about The Gang That Couldn’t Shoot Straight.

  18. 18.

    Jen

    January 23, 2008 at 11:39 am

    We need to just trust that this will all work out very soon.

  19. 19.

    The Grand Panjandrum

    January 23, 2008 at 11:47 am

    Sorry Rick! Didn’t see your post. But good on ya. Juan Cole usually has a petty sober take on most of the breathless commentary about all the “success” or the Surge.

  20. 20.

    The Grand Panjandrum

    January 23, 2008 at 11:48 am

    We need to just trust that this will all work out very soon.

    And I’m sure they’ll respect us in the morning, too.

  21. 21.

    apishapa

    January 23, 2008 at 11:53 am

    Well, I kind of thought he started saying about 6 months ago that we had turned the corner, so we ought to be ready to move out.

  22. 22.

    RSA

    January 23, 2008 at 11:56 am

    We think we won’t know that we’ve reached a turning point until we’re six months past it. We have repeatedly said that there is no lights at the end of the tunnel that we’re seeing. We’re certainly not dancing in the end zone or anything like that.

    Me: So, who do you think will win the Super Bowl this year?

    Petraeus: We won’t even know who’s playing in it until next summer.

  23. 23.

    TenguPhule

    January 23, 2008 at 11:58 am

    There is one born every minute, John.

    Why must you always repeat the experience?

    It would be a lot easier and more accurate if you start off with the view that anything Republicans, the Government or the US Military says now is a lie until proven otherwise.

  24. 24.

    Jake

    January 23, 2008 at 11:59 am

    We think we won’t know that we’ve reached a turning point until we’re six months past it. We have repeatedly said that there is no lights at the end of the tunnel that we’re seeing. We’re certainly not dancing in the end zone or anything like that.

    Bets: How long until he’s shit canned for talking like a defeatocrat?

  25. 25.

    Incertus (Brian)

    January 23, 2008 at 12:00 pm

    SOP by now ought to be to expect the opposite of whatever the administration, and wait for a couple of weeks for it to happen, assuming it takes that long.

  26. 26.

    Zifnab

    January 23, 2008 at 12:03 pm

    Meh, your post a couple weeks ago was pretty cautious and equivocal, and you didn’t use it as an excuse to rub who-knows-what in the faces of us eeevil liberals. Optimism, in and of itself, isn’t a crime.

    Pessimism, however, is a hanging offense in some quarters of the wingnut-o-sphere. After all, pessimism has a notorious liberal jihado-fascist bias.

  27. 27.

    John Cole

    January 23, 2008 at 12:06 pm

    There is one born every minute, John.

    Why must you always repeat the experience?

    Cut me some slack. I am trying to be more skeptical and cynical, but you have to admit that claiming a bill that continues de-baathification and will inflame the rivalries is actually the reconciliation we have all been waiting for is brazen even for these folks.

  28. 28.

    Rick Taylor

    January 23, 2008 at 12:15 pm

    Cut me some slack. I am trying to be more skeptical and cynical, but you have to admit that claiming a bill that continues de-baathification and will inflame the rivalries is actually the reconciliation we have all been waiting for is brazen even for these folks.

    That’s why it’s important to read some experts who are able to read (in this case) arabic and follow the foreign press. The mass media in this country by and large does no such investigation, so you have to to not be fooled.

  29. 29.

    Pb

    January 23, 2008 at 12:16 pm

    John Cole,

    Nothing “is brazen even for these folks”. Weren’t you just posting about Jose Padilla the other day? They’re fine with locking up a US citizen on trumped-up charges, holding him without trial, breaking his mind, making an end-run around the courts so they can continue this practice, and ultimately get him convicted and sentenced on totally different charges, and resulted in precisely zero American citizens being harmed — in this case, one less than the government harmed!

    Lying about a bill doesn’t even come close.

  30. 30.

    Jake

    January 23, 2008 at 12:35 pm

    but you have to admit that claiming a bill that continues de-baathification and will inflame the rivalries is actually the reconciliation we have all been waiting for is brazen even for these folks.

    No. It. Isn’t.

    Stop clutching those pearls and pay attention.

    If people make shit up so they can invade a country, you are not allowed to be shocked, surprised or otherwise nonplussed by anything else they do, ever.

    If we thought you were too stupid to understand this we’d cut you some slack or go somewhere else.

  31. 31.

    srv

    January 23, 2008 at 12:39 pm

    Juan Cole had this examination of the legislation ten days ago.

    John and Juan aren’t talking right now, Juan liked Steely McBeam.

  32. 32.

    Zifnab

    January 23, 2008 at 12:47 pm

    Cut me some slack. I am trying to be more skeptical and cynical, but you have to admit that claiming a bill that continues de-baathification and will inflame the rivalries is actually the reconciliation we have all been waiting for is brazen even for these folks.

    It’s about on par with all the rest of the “We’re winning in Iraq” bullshit they spout. Come on, John. You remember McCain and Lieberman walking down the streets of Baghdad with an entire battalion hedging them in as they claimed the streets were perfectly safe. Is this really anything less than par for the course?

  33. 33.

    STEVEinSC

    January 23, 2008 at 12:49 pm

    When this de-de-baathification thing came out with shrub in the m.e. what part of (parapharse from AP) “145 of the 295 person iraqi parliament voted unanimous show of hands in favor after the Sunnis walked out” didn’t arouse any suspicions?

  34. 34.

    Caidence (fmr. Chris)

    January 23, 2008 at 12:51 pm

    Operation Dump This Mess on the Next President continues in earnest.

    Am I the only person that thinks this is the downside of the 22nd?

    Anyone else?

  35. 35.

    Rick Taylor

    January 23, 2008 at 12:56 pm

    Take heart, John, there are still even more gullible bloggers about. From Captain Ed:

    Those who claim that the surge strategy in Iraq has paid no dividends because it hasn’t met Congressional benchmarks may wish to skip to the next post. The Iraqi National Assembly has passed one of the two most critical benchmarks that the American government had pressed for Baghdad to adopt, the de-Baathification reform that will allow Sunnis to once again enter government jobs:
    …
    This allows Sunnis to retake their jobs and join the Shi’ites and Kurds in administering government functions, especially in Sunni areas. It gives them a stake in the new, representative government instead of being shut out of it. Sunnis will now have every reason to support the central government in Baghdad rather than attempting to undermine it to get back what they lost in the fall of Saddam, and they won’t need to again adopt the fascist Ba’ath principles to do so.

    This looks like progress to me. It’s progress that wouldn’t have come without lowering the violence and removing the provocations and depredations of al-Qaeda in Iraq. That wouldn’t have happened at all had we not ramped up our efforts and taken a much more aggressive posture against the terrorists — and the Sunnis would not have cooperated if we hadn’t signaled so strongly that we intended to beat AQI and stick it out.

    I wonder how the anti-war crowd will spin this. My guesses:

    1. It’s too late — the sky is already falling!
    2. Too many people have died to make freedom worth it.
    3. (crickets chirping)

    Yup. It’s not that our invasion of Iraq has been a monumental disaster that’s the problem, a five year quagmire pinning down a hundred thousand Amercian troops, costing hundreds of billions of dollars, killings hundreds of thousands of people, creating a few million refugees, and with no end in sight that was sold as a cheap quick solution (Iraqi oil would pay for the reconstruction) to a (what turned out to be) nonexistent threat. No, it’s liberals like us who are so determined to portray whatever happens as failure when things are just beginning to turn around. Ugh. You’d think after the last five years, some conservatives would develop a little bit of skepticism when the light at the end of the tunnel approaches yet again? Or at least show a little hesitation in gleefully bashing liberals who were, you know, right about there being no weapons of mass destruction, and who thought the results of the invasion might be a horrific mess. Ugh.

  36. 36.

    Tsulagi

    January 23, 2008 at 1:00 pm

    Yet U.S. officials and even legislators who voted for the measure, which still requires approval by Iraq’s presidency council, acknowledge that its impact is hard to assess from its text and will depend on how it is implemented.

    Translation: The Iraqi executive branch is still studying the finer nuances of democracy before fully signing off on this legislation. They’re looking for examples in our “honor and integrity” administration on how to take their baby steps.

    Especially looking at those democracy enhancers like executive findings. You know, those findings that go something along the lines of “Yeah, I signed this sucker, but as war-time decider I and my administration get to do whatever the fuck we want so it don’t mean shit.” Takes a while to translate into Arabic and Islamic fatwas/executive findings.

  37. 37.

    Rick Taylor

    January 23, 2008 at 1:04 pm

    I am trying to be more skeptical and cynical, but you have to admit that claiming a bill that continues de-baathification and will inflame the rivalries is actually the reconciliation we have all been waiting for is brazen even for these folks.

    Actually, in retrospect, it seems almost inevitable. It’s been clear for a long while that the Iraqi government has zero interest in reconciliation; Maliki has said as much, and the Sadrists in the government would never stand for it. Second, we’ve been putting pressure on them to pass a debaathification law, it’s one of the benchmarks. So it’s not at all surprising in retrospect that the Iraqi government would pass a law and call it debaathification to appease us. And it’s not surprising the current administration would take them at their word, as it’s been an embarrassment that this hasn’t been passed up until now. And of course finding out what really happened at the time requires reading the foreign press which, you know, isn’t necessarily in English, so no one figures it out until a week or so later.

  38. 38.

    Sinister eyebrow

    January 23, 2008 at 1:07 pm

    When John posted the original cautious optimism commentary on this development (I’ll give John credit here–it was more cautious than even cautious optimism suggests … more like “it sounds like it might possibly be progress but I’m not sure of anything coming from these jokers”) I called it lipstick on a pig.

    Now that it is shown to in fact be lipstick on said pig, what do I win?

  39. 39.

    STEVEinSC

    January 23, 2008 at 1:14 pm

    Hand raised with obvious misplaced optomism from student who knows answer: “I know, I know, you get a pig with lipstick on it. “

  40. 40.

    Tsulagi

    January 23, 2008 at 1:16 pm

    We have repeatedly said that there is no lights at the end of the tunnel that we’re seeing.

    Someone should tell the good general the “tunnel” he’s in is actually a mine shaft. There ain’t no light at the bottom. But he already knows that…

    Warner: General, will winning in Iraq make America safer?

    Petraeus: Um…..er….well…Gee, I really hadn’t thought about that.

    Bullshit

  41. 41.

    Jake

    January 23, 2008 at 1:17 pm

    OT, but elsewhere in the Mid-East, the Egyptian economy is getting a boost.

    Earlier Wednesday, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice offered a muted response, saying in Switzerland that the U.S. wants to see stability in the region, but that “most importantly both the security concerns of Israel and the humanitarian concerns of Gazans be met.”

    Well I don’t want to [mumble] but um [hums softly], this certainly … Look! A seagull!

    Absolutely fuckulous.

  42. 42.

    Rick Taylor

    January 23, 2008 at 1:18 pm

    Now that it is shown to in fact be lipstick on said pig, what do I win?

    Why you get to be derided as a treasonous liberal who wants us to lose, and to be taunted again when the next light at the end of the tunnel comes along.

  43. 43.

    HyperIon

    January 23, 2008 at 1:49 pm

    It would be a lot easier and more accurate if you start off with the view that anything Republicans, the Government or the US Military says now is a lie until proven otherwise.

    the best spin: this has been a 7 year teach-in on why everyone needs to QUESTION AUTHORITY.

  44. 44.

    Rick Taylor

    January 23, 2008 at 2:24 pm

    A big part of the problem is that the press in this country is largely useless. What would be the natural thing to do in the wake of a breakthrough as this was supposed to be? Look at the arabic press, talk to people in Iraq, especially the Sunni’s who’ve been complaining, see what they say. It wouldn’t have taken long to discover that those supposedly benefiting from the law didn’t like it, while those Sadrists who’d opposed any sort of reconciliation until now supported it.

  45. 45.

    Dennis - SGMM

    January 23, 2008 at 2:25 pm

    It would be a lot easier and more accurate if you start off with the view that anything Republicans, the Government or the US Military says now is a lie until proven otherwise.

    As a lifelong Democrat and an unrepentant liberal I would add the Democrats to the above.

    Anyone else remember “The end of the Rubber Stamp Congress” in ’06?

  46. 46.

    srv

    January 23, 2008 at 2:27 pm

    is a lie until proven otherwise.

    It’s worked great for me for about 27 years.

  47. 47.

    Tony J

    January 23, 2008 at 2:31 pm

    Just Bush-Democracy in action folks.

    Al-Maliki’s rump regime royally pisses off the Shia majority in Parliament by helping the US get the Occupation re-legitimised by the UN in violation of Iraqi law – since the Parliament had already voted to make it illegal for the PM to do any such thing without their approval (Yay for sovereignty!) – and thus continue the Surge policy of arming and funding the Sunni militias formerly known as The Insurgency in the expectation of a US or Israeli attack on Shia Iran.

    Al-Maliki’s rump regime pleases the Shia majority in Parliament no end by giving them an opportunity to effectively cut the Sunni minority out of official Iraqi society with full US backing. Which basically guarantees that Iraq’s civil-war is going to be a fight to the death regardless of how many US troops are in the region.

    Everyone in the wingnutosphere points to how Teh Surge has led to ‘political reconciliation’, while sniggering to each other at the prospect of a Democratic White House having to deal with the shitstorm their Leader is going to leave behind.

    Bush-Democracy – It’s all about doing whatever the fuck you want and leaving someone else to clean up the mess.

  48. 48.

    r€nato

    January 23, 2008 at 2:44 pm

    Bush-Democracy – It’s all about doing whatever the fuck you want and leaving someone else to clean up the mess.

    and on Jan 21, 2009, wingnuts will be screaming, “Why hasn’t President (Clinton or Obama) fixed Iraq yet? Democrats lost Iraq!”

  49. 49.

    Jake

    January 23, 2008 at 2:50 pm

    Someone should tell the good general the “tunnel” he’s in is actually a mine The President’s lower bowel.

  50. 50.

    Tony J

    January 23, 2008 at 2:57 pm

    and on Jan 21, 2009, wingnuts will be screaming, “Why hasn’t President (Clinton or Obama) fixed Iraq yet? Democrats lost Iraq!”

    As long as there’s no peace in Iraq, there’s always a ‘need’ for US troops to be stationed there. Ergo, the worse you make it in 2008, the more likely it is you can pick up where you left off in 2012, while also being nicely positioned to co-opt the Mayan Apocalypse and ride your pony to Raptureland.

    Or, more seriously, though no less accurately, yes, you’re right.

  51. 51.

    Delia

    January 23, 2008 at 2:59 pm

    We have repeatedly said that there is no lights at the end of the tunnel that we’re seeing.

    Someone should tell the good general the “tunnel” he’s in is actually a mine shaft. There ain’t no light at the bottom. But he already knows that…

    Warner: General, will winning in Iraq make America safer?

    Petraeus: Um…..er….well…Gee, I really hadn’t thought about that.

    Bullshit

    There’s no light at the end of the tunnel because the tunnel is a black hole. And it just keeps getting bigger the more stuff you shovel down it.

  52. 52.

    Zifnab

    January 23, 2008 at 3:52 pm

    Anyone else remember “The end of the Rubber Stamp Congress” in ‘06?

    Ugh. Why did you have to remind me? I remember whole campaign on that. What lameness.

  53. 53.

    Peter Johnson

    January 23, 2008 at 6:40 pm

    Damned if you do, damned if you don’t. If Bush doesn’t do this, he’s stubborn. If he does, he gets this kind of ill-informed snark. De-baatification was a mistake, as this administration has admitted many times. Now that’s being rectified.

    That’s what strong leadership is: not crying on David Gregory’s shoulder about all the mistakes you’ve made, but setting them right when have occurred.

    Smart, strong.

  54. 54.

    bob

    January 23, 2008 at 10:35 pm

    Setting things right since 2001, the Dub-Ya administration.

  55. 55.

    TenguPhule

    January 23, 2008 at 11:17 pm

    I am trying to be more skeptical and cynical, but you have to admit that claiming a bill that continues de-baathification and will inflame the rivalries is actually the reconciliation we have all been waiting for is brazen even for these folks.

    These people break the law openly without fear of prosecution or condemnation.

    Stop letting Lucy sucker you with that Football.

  56. 56.

    TenguPhule

    January 23, 2008 at 11:21 pm

    De-baatification was a mistake, as this administration has admitted many times.

    Wrong. This administration was for it before it was against it. And look how well it has turned out.

    Now that’s being rectified.

    If by rectified you mean “We fucking lied to you stupid bitches”, then yes.

    That’s what strong leadership is: not crying on David Gregory’s shoulder about all the mistakes you’ve made, but setting them right when have occurred.

    And just as obviously there is no strong leadership to see here.

    Because not one thing has been set right, but far too many set wrong by the Idiot who appoints himself king.

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