Me, July 2007:
It is kind of sad, really. I would never have voted for McCain, and I have found him to be a profile in cowardice these past few years- publicly sort of/kind of raising a scene about torture, then toeing the Bush line, etc., and like many others, I still have never recovered from McCain-Feingold, but at the same time it is kind of unsettling and painful too watch someone fall so far so fast.
But it is over. I can say with relative certainty that John McCain will never be President. At least not of the United States.
Couple more predictions like this, and I am ready to take over Friedman’s job!
BFR
No, that is as correct now as it was then. John McCain will never be the President of the United States. He polls well on general name recognition but the second he opens his mouth about Iraq/Iran and his economic lunacy in a general election debate, he’s toast.
Grand Moff Texan
Not till you learn to say “suck on this” while gymbaling your head around like a strung-out drag queen.
.
Jen
Could you please predict that Hillary will get the nomination?
Wilfred
Better wait 6 months.
Kilkee
Friedman’s job, maybe, but you’ve got a long way to go before you can even dream of Bill Kristol’s job.
LiberalTarian
Dude. It isn’t all your fault. ;)
scott
Is John saying this kinda stuff akin to the “Frank Gifford Effect”? Yunno, back on Monday Night Football, ole Frank would say something like:
“John Riggins hasn’t fumbled the ball in 478 carries.”
Then on the next running play that Riggins would get the ball, he’d fumble it.
If McCain gets elected, John, expect the peasants with the pitchforks and torches on your doorstep. Either that or we’ll send down a large contingent of drunk Pitt frat boys.
Zifnab
Oh John, if you want to look back at stupid quotes…
I found this one funny cause you assumed John Roberts wasn’t going to veer right enough.
This one was funny too. For so many reasons.
*snickers* Sorry, sorry, John. But you can’t go back into the archives and pick up silly stuff you said without someone coming back and picking up way dumber stuff you said before that.
To be totally fair, no one was honestly going to predict the McCain / 9ui11ani popularity swap. By all rights – in my head at least – this should have been a Huckabee(Brownback) / Ron Paul race. At least Huckabee and Brownback are legitimate religious wackos and Ron Paul is a genuine die-hard conservative. The fact that the Republicans got snookered again into voting for two giant hypocritical phonies does not bode well for the party in the immediate future.
John S.
He has already given the Democratic nominee many gifts for their advertising.
My favorite is still him lying through his teeth about acknowledging that he said he didn’t know much about economic policy.
I could see it now…
(Roll clip of Bush saying he wasn’t concerned about bin Laden, followed by clip of him lying about it in 2004 debate)
Voiceover: We’ve already experienced a president who couldn’t keep his facts straight.
(Roll clip of McCain saying he has more to learn about economic policy, followed by clip of him lying about it in 2008 debate)
Voiceover: Can we really afford to elect another?
ThymeZone
McCain can’t win, but the Dem candidate can lose.
I am not predicting that this will happen, but it could.
But barring that, your Nov 5 final tally is going to be Dem 55%, Republican 45%, plus or minus fringe crazyvotes.
McCain is a real honest to god jerk. I’m willing to stand up for his war hero status (see last night) but I am not willing to like him, or vote for him.
BFR
I don’t know – the only scenario I can think of is if Clinton wins the D nomination, prompting a name-brand 3rd party challenge on the left (oriented around an anti-war theme) along with a strong Bloomberg candidacy that somehow appeals more to center-left independents than center-right.
It just doesn’t seem that likely.
Grumpy Code Monkey
Hell, I predicted Grandpa Fred would get the nomination, so John shouldn’t feel too bad. And, as others have pointed out, McCain hasn’t lost the election yet. He probably will, but it’s best not to count your McNuggets before they’ve been deep-fried.
ThymeZone
I pretty much agree, but I was thinking more in terms of a gaffe, or a skeleton in a closet that we don’t know about.
Or the Kerry Effect, where a GOP attack just blindsides our candidate and paralyzes him/her.
Weird things can happen. But barring that, or the 3rd party thing, we are in a position to win big.
BFR
I’m skeptical this nets you enough marginal votes on the GOP side in 2008 – W is just going to be a boat anchor around the neck of whoever wins the nomination.
ThymeZone
Yes, the phrase “money in the bank” comes to mind.
BFR
I’d also add that Kerry ran a really lousy, schizophrenic campaign that basically teed up the attacks for the GOP. He ran a somewhat anti-war campaign, despite a senatorial record that included a number of pro-Bush/war votes. He then topped it off by running on his own Vietnam-era war record while trying to skate around his anti-war activism.
I just don’t see either Clinton or Obama running such a sloppy campaign.
TheFountainHead
I’ve actually been saying that McCain will be the Republican nominee since 2005, so I feel slightly vindicated, and also a little nauseous.
4tehlulz
Depends. Is Bob Shrum working for either of them?
Barry
John Cole: “Couple more predictions like this, and I am ready to take over Friedman’s job!”
Ih, H*ll no! A couple more *thousand* predictions like that, and you’ll qualify to be his apprentice.
The dark side is not easily mastered.
grandpa john
Dems already have the perfect weapon. Every dem add should contain thisphoto
grandpa john
Well lets try that again
this photo
NonyNony
What a scary thought. I went and looked to see if I could find anyone he was working for this cycle. At the very least no one will admit to having him on the staff. I imagine Kerry has warned Obama not to hire him, considering the response he had to Shrum’s book about the Kerry campaign last year.
gypsy howell
If it makes you feel any better, I thought the same thing at the time. I was totally convinced the guy was toast, and I was pretty giddy about it.
Now — ugh. If he lives till the election (talk about a guy who doesn’t look or sound too good), he might be our next president.
He can’t be worse than Bush, can he? I mean, can he?
alkali
Acknowledging one’s own errors(*) immediately disqualifies aspirants to Friedman-style punditry. Sorry.
(* With the exception of acknowledgements of the form “I failed to realize just how right I was.”)
HyperIon
that’s one thing that i worry about with Obama. haven’t we already heard some form of ALL the dirt that will get thrown at HRC if she is the nominee? personally i don’t think re-hashing Vince Foster, etc can hurt her anymore. can the raging wingers have overlooked anything negative about her? i think not.
but i wonder if Obama might have something tucked away that could bring him crashing down. it’s so hard these days for candidates to truly be “clean”. thus far none of the gotchas about Obama have seemed very serious to me. but it’s a long time to november and i know the repubs will try to smear him with something….let’s hope the pony magic is STRONG.
Krista
I suppose that’s one bright side to the fact that Clinton and Obama took the gloves off with each other: whoever gets the nomination will already be fired up and not willing to take any shit.
Chuck Butcher
Oh hell John,
I’ve been as wrong recently, regarding Democrats. I honestly thought when Edwards announced that it would be a wash, Democrats with a viable progressive populist candidate would be an easy choice. I may have the excuse that Obama tossed a wrench in the works, but obviously I didn’t understand the HRC appeal. I still don’t.
Talk about lense color…
skip
Not until you learn to count in Friedman Units. Just imagine the Gettysburg Address!