I’m feeling unusually generous today, so for the sake of argument let’s deny reality and say that the “surge” has settled the bitter civil war between Iraq’s Shiite and Sunni community. We’re on the glide path to success, right? Well, no. The powder keg that we lit by freeing Iraqi Kurdistan is still burning on a slow match. Sooner or later Kirkuk residents will choose whether or not to join semi-autonomous Kurdistan; in a sense the outcome doesn’t matter since both sides have basically promised a bloody fight if they lose.
Then you have Turkey. As helpful as it might seem to free Iraq’s Kurds to pester Iran*, it really doesn’t help our case to have the same Kurdish groups stirring violent insurgency in Turkey. It has been clear for a while that the Turks would eventually run out of patience and deal with Kurdish insurgent bases just over the Iraq border if we failed to deal with the problem ourselves.
Long story short, we failed and the Turks ran out of patience.
[T]he current incursion is both a warning and a preamble. Turkey is sending a very unsubtle message. “Get off the fence and reign in these Kurdish groups before the Spring thaw in late-March or April or we’ll be over the border in real force and you can kiss goodbye to peace in Northern Iraq. We’ve proven we can and we’ve proven you can’t do anything about it short of breaking up NATO and starting up an actual war with the most moderate Islamic-majority nation in the region.” The unrest which will come from the US and Iraq cracking down on the PKK and PJK will be nothing compared to what would hit the fan then.
Cernig also notes that the Turks have claimed the Bush Doctrine privilege to chase terrorists into countries where they find safe harbor. Even better, a full-scale Turkish invasion would no doubt drive the Kurdish region into bloody chaos, an idea which ought to make neoconservatives like Michael “creative destruction is our middle name” Ledeen clap their infant hands together with glee.
Fans of bloody intractable war will no doubt be thrilled to know that the Kurds have decided not to roll over for Turkey.
The United States is being skillfully handled by the Turks, who are dragging the U.S. into a policy disaster in Kurdistan. The Kurds have moved a lot of fighters and equipment quietly into the area, and are prepared to strike the Turks. Massoud [Barzani, the Iraqi Kurdish leader] has issued all the press comments he can to publicly warn that Kurdish patience is gone. The United States is either ignoring the signals or missing them…The Kurds can and will bloody the Turks badly in a fight.
Ugh. At least the Sunnis and Shiites have finally settled their differences.
***
(*) Maybe not so helpful when you think about the incentive that it gives for Iran to encourage insurgents to cross the border and pester us.
4tehlulz
Bob Gates:
Turkey: lol no.
pharniel
i’m surprised that turkey hasn’t stated ‘nothing is off the table’ when asked about nuclear strikes into iraq.
welcome to the breakup.
TheFountainHead
This is something I’ve been saying since 2003. Friends of mine, who would agree with me that the War the administration was pushing would be a disaster, would say, “The only way to fix Iraq is to split it into two nations, one for the Shiites, and one for the Sunnis.” Put aside the fact that this is an absurdly simplistic answer to the problem in the region for all kinds of reasons (though vastly more subtle and intelligent than bombing the fuck out of the place and then occupying it with troops) it just misses a huge chunk of the problem: The Kurds, Iran, and Turkey. Turkey cannot tolerate a free Kurdish state and we don’t have the resources to stabilize that region when it blows up. Ironically, our only recourse here is to go to Iran and ask for their help in bartering some kind agreement between the two, even a tenuous one. This is, of course, not something this administration could accomplish, if any even could.
Shorter: We ran like a bull through a China shop, went through the back wall, and discover there’s a fireworks factory next door.
Shorter to 2003: I fucking told you so.
horatius
Well. All you America-haters are traitors for not supporting the bestest every President that ever presidented.
Dennis - SGMM
“No one could have anticipated that the Turks, fed up with having their citizens killed by Kurdish terrorists, would use our own words to justify invading Kurdistan.”
Punchy
Strangely delayed until January 21, 2009, natch.
ThymeZone
And to 2002: A lot of us told you so.
Nobody wanted to hear it.
I guess we need to call Bill Kristol and ask him what to do now.
Svensker
Jonathan Schwarz has the link to Nir Rosen’s story on what’s happening with the Glorious Surge. As Schwarz points out, Rosen is fluent in Arabic, so may have a better view of facts on the ground than our own propagandists, like Cordesman.
And how’s that dollar doing?
Reverend Spooner
We have to let them fight it out over there so they don’t fight it out over here. Or something like that.
Reverend Spooner
You go into recession with the currency you have, not the currency you wish you had.
Gus
If McCain is elected he will sit the warring parties in a room and tell them to cut the bullshit. This is why we need a McCain presidency.
Jake
My country ’tis of thee, sweet land of irony …
No, stop. Please, you’re killing me. The US rolled over and spread ’em like a pop starlet when Turkey went to DEFCON 5 OutRage(TM) over a fucking House resolution on genocide that occured a century ago.
O RLY? More dire than setting of another war in a country where we have troops Madame Schmuckretary?
I didn’t start this shit, I protested this shit, I told people who were for this shit that they were full of shit and it still embarrasses the shit out of me to watch Bush’s 100′ Radioactive Chickens come home to roost.
Dan
I think this is very helpful to the Turks. All they have to say is they’ll be there “Five days or five weeks,” like Rumsfeld did, and they can stay as long as they want. If we object, they can say they’re just following the advice of the commander on the ground and ask why we hate the troops. Bushist diplomacy at its best.
PC
You sell nuclear secrets to the countries that you have, not to the countries you want.
Sinister eyebrow
Er, if the Turks were mindful of Iraq’s sovereignty they wouldn’t have invaded in the first place.
Armed and bribed (and more organized) Sunni insurgents; armed and now politically powerful Shiite insurgents; armed and organized Kurdish separatists; incursions into Northern Iraq by the (in those parts) hated Turks…
There are no shortage of stormclouds. It would appear that the unwinnable disaster remains an unwinnable disaster immune to the happy-talk bucket brigade of surge supporters. No one could have anticipated!
Thepanzer
Strategic disaster.
If i was a Chinese or Russian intel officer I’d be laughing my ass off.
In the long run I wonder what the last 8 years decisions will be compared to in scale by future historians. The German or French invasions of Russia? Defeat of the Spanish armada? Any thoughts?
josephdietrich
“They have to be mindful of Iraqi sovereignty.”
Ha ha! Good one!
Reverend Spooner
The Athenian invasion of Sicily. There are plenty of parallels to that one. The only thing that would make an even better analogy to it would be if Reagan had invaded Iran in 1983 or something, costing us the Cold War.
Look at it on the bright side, though: 15 years from now we’ll get to sit on the sidelines and bitch about China/India in solidarity with the rest of the planet. Then it’ll be THEIR bunglings, not ours.
AnneLaurie
Another one of the many occasions when I find myself thinking, “Damn, I miss Steve Gilliard.”
spaniel
I know how to resolve this problem!
Give Michael Ledeen’s daughter a special GS-15 position to do civil-military affairs from Kirkuk. She can use all of that valuable experience she gained with CPA (2003-2004) to apply it to the new problem at hand. May be they can send all of the other brainaics from the Green Zone’s CPA office with her (obviously she cannot do it all on her own).
AnneLaurie
Yeah, maybe she can
steal“misplace” another NINE BILLION DOLLARS of OUR money. All those shrink-wrapped bulk pallets; I still want to know how Simone, Michael, our good buddies at AIPAC and the RNC divvied those billions up. Given good Rethug accounting practices, even the Hague probably won’t be able to tweeze out all the thieves involved in that heist.ThatLeftTurnInABQ
Napolean III and the French Invasion of Mexico.
All the elements are there: vulgar authoritarianism + demagoguery + imperial delusions of grandeur + religious stupidity + crass ignorance + no planning + massive incompetence + abject humiliation.
Oh, and also that it was all made possible by the ascent to supreme power of a massively under-talented offspring of a political dynasty. Too bad we haven’t at least gotten the consolation prize of world-class urban planning and architecture that the French got out of the 2nd Empire. It is truly Le Suque.
Happy Cinqo de Mayo everybody!