Two points stand out to me about the brewing situation in Iraq’s once-peaceful northern frontier.
* Regarding Kurdish guerillas, Turkey’s army is like a genie that is easier let out of a bottle than stuffed back in. Once they have political authorization to deal with the guerillas, and as long as the PKK provokes them, the Turkish army will go on violating Iraq’s border more or less at will.
* The PKK will not stop provoking the Turks. They are doctrinaire communist revolutionaries, which means that they think a lot like our neocons. Remember the hysterical freakout when their man Khalilzad accidentally breathed the same oxygen as a hated Iranian enemy? I imagine the PKK throws the same poop-flinging hatefest whenever a functionary suggests interacting with Turks in a way that doesn’t involve someone wearing his blood on the outside.
Actually, there is a third point.
* America cannot do a thing about the situation. We can’t get in Turkey’s way because we both belong to NATO. We can’t threaten the Kurds because their region is the linchpin for any longterm plan for US forces in Iraq. Even if we could intervene, effectively ending the tension would mean reassigning a substantial force from somewhere else in Iraq. Air power might do some good if we had solid intelligence on PKK hideouts, which we don’t, and if we could act without pissing off Iraqi Kurds, which we can’t. In other words whatever grumpy noises American envoys make to Ankara don’t mean much when everyone knows that we are watching the scrap from the sidelines.
So after sounding a dour note the other day it didn’t surprise me that much to hear that Turkey pulled out again soon after. Now that the genie’s out of the bottle it’s only a matter of time before Turkish forces invite themselves back. And by ‘a matter of time’ I mean five days.
Up next: Kurds will increasingly resist Turkish incursions, the PKK will aggravate the situation with more violence. Turkish reprisals will bolster support for PKK, which will increase their ability to pester the Turks. Israel-Palestine forecast with a small chance of Chechnya.
srv
What War Nerd said.
TenguPhule
You forgot the part where third parties try to meddle on the sly and wind up dragging US forces square into the middle of it until some pilot drops the wrong bomb on the wrong place at the wrong time and the last remaining faction in Iraq that doesn’t completely hate our guts and substantially outguns and outclasses the other two declares Blood Feud on America and the whole fucking keg of gunpowder proceeds to do a good impression of nuclear fusion.
Cain
God, if that happens (and I hope it doesn’t..!) Bush should still be president otherwise you know who our friends in Red State is going to blame.
cain
TenguPhule
There is no call to insult the Kurds like that.
They at least have a strategy that’s not completely bugfuck insane. And they’re competent enough to run a lemonade stand.
jake
No one could have possibly foreseen that blowing all of our credibility on PonyQuest would lead to nations thumbing their noses at us. Hence the White House’s reaction to the brewing Rumble in the South American Jungle: “Er … um … we don’t like Chavez.”
Cute. Comparing human beings to beasts of the field always warms my cockles.
Lavocat
Perhaps if a rogue nuke hit Istanbul, things might be a bit different. Just sayin’.
Reverend Spooner
Mission accomplished!
Huntly
The Iraqi border guards are run by Omar Sharif! No wonder they can’t stop those pesky Turks and Terrists from entering the country.
Dennis - SGMM
The day after the Turks withdrew, Turkish aircraft struck three villages in Iraqi Kurdistan. The border has become transparent to the Turks.
The warm welcome given to Iran’s President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, further underscores the US’ inability to significantly affect the course of events on Iraq. Here’s the kicker: as reported by Christian Science Monitor Ahmadinejad was able to convoy from Baghdad International Airport to the residence of Iraqi President Jalal Talabani. That short drive is one that no US official has been able to make. Now to see how all of this is spun into proof that the surge is working.
Bob In Pacifica
The depressing thing is that I could have predicted this. Well, I did predict this. And I had absolutely no special knowledge of the region.
Sometimes the common people expect some drastic consequences of some official action and are surprised that their leaders somehow pulled it off. But with the Bush Administration you see the initial blunder, you know what’s coming next, and then it does. Depressingly.
empty
The Kurds may very well have some decent strategy. The PKK, however, are bugfuck insane. Truly.
SGEW
Well, the U.S. could use diplomatic pressure through N.A.T.O., parlaying through good will, and could offer up a good-faith compromise due to our exalted status as a neutral arbiter.
Oh wait. I almost forgot that we have no international legitimacy as a neutral arbiter anymore. Never mind.
Back in 2002, during the whole Iraq invasion “debate,” I often pondered aloud about the ramifications of the Kurdish border with Turkey, and what would happen to the PKK if they gained a stronghold in a newly “liberated” Kurdistan, and how Turkey would react. People looked at me and said “Whatchoo talkin’ bout, fool?” (or, rather, words to that effect).
I am tired of saying “I told you so! I told you so!” when what I told them about was regional chaos and an unending disaster. I really wish I was wrong.
Dennis - SGMM
“No one could have anticipated that providing a safe haven for a pack of terrorists with a decades-long grudge would lead to more cross border trouble.”
See also: Pakistan tribal regions.
dlw32
The Turks are following the Bush doctrine of preemptive strikes and the Bush philosophy that we’ll go where ever we need to to attack the terrorists. How does the US complain about that without looking like complete morons?
canuckistani
Save your breath. They don’t and won’t remember what you told them all those years ago. It’s all “everyone thought this” and “no one could have anticipated that”. Next time the US does something stupid, I’m going to have all my predictions timestamped and notarized for the wingnuts pleasure.
skyler
The only solution is to arm the PKK with billions of dollars worth of America’s best weaponry.