Only 77% of Americans say that Obama did a fair or excellent job with his speech the other day:
Eighty-four percent (84%) of America’s Likely Voters say they have seen or heard at least some portion of Barack Obama’s Tuesday morning speech on race and national unity (see Speech). The speech has become one of the most watched YouTube videos and 82% say they are following news about it somewhat or very closely.
Among those who have seen or heard some of the speech, 51% said it was good or excellent, 26% said fair, and 21% gave the Senator’s remarks a grade of poor.
I predict that this is bad for Democrats. I mean, Obama clearly did not persuade the Corner, Charles Krauthammer, and Red State. Epic fail on his part.
Consider this an open thread.
Some guy
Yeah, but he said “typical white” in a follow up question, so actually, he is a black militant charismatic would-be cult leader. So Krauthammer and the rest of “Our Dumb Gang” are just protecting us from our own judgment. They know the crazy behind any African American who says “typical white” regradless of the words precede of follow it. It is like lithmus paper for angry black revolutionary aspirations.
El Cid
If Obama fails to successfully and fully target his campaign towards right wing nutbags who hate liberals and the Democratic Party, he has failed as a transcendent, multipartisan figure.
p.lukasiak
When you actually look at the breakdown, the numbers are not quite as impressive.
only 30% said the speech was excellent — basically, that probably is equal to the percentage of hard core Obama supporters.
Another 21% said it was good — probably equal to the number of people inclined to vote for a Democratic candidate regardless of who it is — and equal to the percentage of voters who aren’t convinced about Obama, but willing to give him another shot.
Another 26% said it was fair — this would be the people who were unconvinced by the speech, but haven’t yet written off Obama entirely.
Then there are the 21% who said it was poor — they’ve written off Obama, but they were probably voting Republican anyway.
Only 21% said, after the speech, that they were “not at all concerned” about Obama’s relationship with Wright, while 42% said they remained “very concerned”. Another 33% said they were “somewhat” or “not very” concerned.
Its the “very concerned” numbers that are the most scary — and there is a significant risk that the 33% of people who are concerned to some extent demonstrates that Obama remains very vulnerable on this kind of issue.
ThymeZone
It’s an awesome performance. Obama took a huge potential negative and turned it into a positive, without triangulation, spin, weaseling, being maudlin, cynical calculation, lies, demagoguery, or fear mongering.
I don’t know about anyone else, but it seems like Change, to me, from politics as usual.
Which is what I voted for when I voted for him in the primary.
p.lukasiak
Oh, one other thing about the breakdown…
21% said the speech was “divisive” — the same percentage that said it was poor.
30% said it was “unifying” — the same percentage that said it was “excellent”
and 50% said it was ‘Neither” or “not sure” — basically, the combined “somewhat” and “not very” concerned crown.
dslak
Does p.luk spend time thinking to himself how he can spin basic facts, or is simply a hack reflexively?
dslak
If you look carefuly, you’ll notice that the percentage of voters who have voted for Obama in the primaries is same as the percentage of voters who don’t count.
John Cole
Hillary Clinton couldn’t get a 77% approval rating if she was passing out free money and hookers. Please take this spin back to Hillaryis44.
Dennis - SGMM
Obama obviously failed to cross the Commander in Chief Threshold. Maybe he should have laid some praise on John McCain.
The only thing that’s broken down is Clinton’s campaign. If she and Bill had a shred of decency between they’d end the charade now. At the rate that she is burning her bridges she’ll be lucky if the people of New York state don’t replace her with a Democratic Senator.
Dennis - SGMM
If she and Bill had a shred of decency between them they’d end the charade now.
Need coffee.
tBone
Actually, I agree. When you actually look at the breakdown, p.luk’s numbers are not quite as impressive.
ThymeZone
While Bill Richardson did not say that he had spoken directly with Paul Lukasiak, he did say …
This, from at least one person whose vote, uh, counts, as they say. In a Superdelegate sort of way.
Richardson is a strong guy. He watches the Super Bowl with Bill Clinton, and then endorses Obama. Imagine, people in government who put principle ahead of loyalty?
p.lukasiak
Cole, you really are an idiot. “Fair” is not approval in this poll. You VERY conveniently left out the fact that the 77% includes three categories, “excellent, good or fair”
let me break it down for you…
excellent = very impressed
good = impressed, but not “very” impressed
fair = unimpressed, but not “completely” unimpressed
poor = completely unimpressed.
You’re bizarre spinning of poll data is becoming pathological. “Fair” is not considered “approval” in any poll .
Look at how Bush approval ratings are broken down — if there are four categories, “excellent, good, fair, poor” that are broken down to two categories “approve, disapprove”, only “excellent” and “good” are included as “approve” while “fair” and “poor” are described as “disapprove”.
there is no way that you cannot know this, given that you cite so many polls. So, when you lump “fair” in with “approve”, knowing full well that there are four categories, its obvious that you are either deliberately lying, or so completely under the influence of MUP fairy dust that you’ve completely lost touch with any vestige of an ability to look at information impartially.
Quackers
I’m pleased with numbers this good while still so close to the incident. It could be FAR worse. The wankers screaming loudest were never going to vote for him anyway, they’re just trying to inflict maximum damage. I am so looking forward to the debates when Obama will tie McCain in knots.
Texpope
Look – there has been a massive, concerted effort from the right to say “don’t listen to what Obama is saying – just look at his racist minister”!!! over and over and over. Obama’s job from here on is to just marginalize them, by continuing a dialogue with Americans as if we’re adults.
If we’re not, he’s not getting elected anyway.
rob!
the Hillary people are sputtering, and they’re in disbelief that this Wright thing isn’t handing the election over to them. they didn’t expect Obama to take the bull by the horns and wrestle this problem to the ground, and do as well as he did. again, people underestimate him. or misunderestimate him, to continue the thread of using made-up words.
anyone who believes Obama is some sort of crazy-eyed, wild black national was NEVER going to vote for him anyway, so i believe the loss of potential votes because of Wright is probably relatively small.
ThymeZone
shorter plunatic:
Clinton is actually winning, and Obama’s speech proves it!
Now, everybody in for pie!
slag
Am I the only one who’s skeptical of the notion that 30% of America are already hard core Obama supporters? Seriously? Cuz if that were true, that would be awesome!
p.lukasiak
tell that to people in Ohio, where Obama went from +10 against McCain on Feb 26-28 to -7 against McCain on March 14-16.
(note — while both were SUSA polls, there was a significant shift in the Dem/GOP breakdown, that probably accounts for about 4% of the overall shift away from Obama.)
Perhaps most interesting is where Obama lost his support — among “independents” Obama went from 60% to 45% among independents, while McCain jumped from 28% to 49%.
And where did this shift actually occur? Among white voters who SUSA said made up 86-87% of the electorate. In late February, Obama lead McCain among whites by 42% to 47%… in mid March, he’d fallen 19 points behind McCain in that demographic — 37% Obama, 56% McCain. That’s a 24 point swing. (again, with the “party demographic change” caveat — the real swing was probably more like 18 points, because republicans tend to be white.)
Unfortunately, SUSA hasn’t released a post-speech poll from Ohio, so there is no way to tell to what extent the damage has been repaired/mitigated (at least not without relying upon different polls, and I prefer to compare apples to apples).
But if you think that the only people who had a hard time with the Wright affair were people who were gonna vote against Obama anyway — I think this data should at least make you reconsider your assumptions.
p.lukasiak
damn… why does the minus sign lead to crossouts?
here the first line of the previous post, without the erroneous crossout…
oh, and here are the links to the Febrary and March polls…
Splitting Image
Never mind the polls. Obama reached Mike Huckabee. That is a significant victory.
I think it’s interesting that many Clinton supporters deny that her campaign strategy is to make Obama so toxic he can’t win the election, then turn around and present statistics trying to prove that strategy has worked.
p.lukasiak
oh, and not to be a dead horse or anything…but check out these two polls from Missouri. In this case, the “party shift” was much less pronounced…but what happened to Obama’s support is just as pronounced.
Feb 26-28
March 13-14
p.lukasiak
are you actually blaming the Wright fiasco on the Clinton campaign?
ThymeZone
Here’s a reaction even lukasiak can’t top.
According to Buchanan, slavery was a gift to negroes.
Hard to believe, but the Silent Majority is baaaaack.
These really are fascinating times.
Who wants pie?
ThymeZone
What a fucking wanker.
joe
*awakes to an elbow in the ribs*
Huh? Who?
Uh…this is bad for the Democrats. It’s something that could really hurt them in November.
Wait, what? Chemistry class? Oh, uh…one mole?
joe
Obama AND CLINTON have been lost ground against McCain in the past three weeks. This trend began long before the Wright speech, as McCain shifted into general election mode while the Democrats were still whacking at each other.
But, in Kamp Klinton, this obvious and widely-reported fact has gone right down the memory whole.
Scary black church! Scary black folks! Gonna getcha!
p.lukasiak
not sure where you get your information, but the national trendlines from pollster.com show Clinton gaining and Obama losing support when matched against McCain.
As I noted upthread, the SUSA poll showed clinton losing a little ground to McCain — but that can be explained by the fact that the Party Demographics were considerably different.
NR
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/03/21/poll-obama-receives-high-marks-for-race-speech/
The 70% figure is confirmed in this CBS poll.
Those are VERY good numbers for the speech. Quite a bit better than I was even hoping for.
Pb
Heh. TZ, you beat me to it. Yes, Buchanan’s speech is really the one that the very concerned people who thought Obama’s speech was poor have been waiting for.
joe
A Democrat getting 40% approval from Republicans, for a speech on race relations, as their activists are working to demonize him over race relations.
Think about that. 40% approvel from Republicans. That’s why Chris Wallace went off on his fellow Fox-ites; a big chunk of them like the guy, and appreciate his message.
ThymeZone
Recent polls show that Paul Lukasiak has lost ground in the last three weeks.
A spokesman for Lukasiak told BJ that he loved pie, and that pie was very delicious.
Soylent Green
The only thing these people are independent of is the use of their brains. How does anyone switch their loyalty overnight from Obama to McCain unless they are wholly untethered to any reality-based reality?
OTOH, many of them won’t decide whom to vote for in November until they’re standing in the booth.
Jess
I liked the Onion’s take on it.
Jess
Here’s the headline: “Black Guy Asks Nation for Change.”
Jrod
Hey pluk, your breakdown still shows that a majority thought the speech was good. What the hell are you trying to prove?
This is the same thinking that says Obama will lose the nomination unless he really wins big in the last few states, even though it’s Clinton who needs to win by damn near 40 points in order to catch up to Obama’s delegate count.
Admit it, despite your hopes, Wright hasn’t finished Obama.
Walker
Is pluk even a democrat? Or is he just a red stater trying to have fun? His posts read like a classical concern troll.
joe
p.luk, thanks, I guess I was working off old info.
demimondian
Yes, pluk is a democrat — and he’s promised to pull the lever for MUP if he wins the nom. Right now, he’s fighting a rear-guard action to save Clinton’s candidacy, and needs to be granted the respect that goes with that — and no more.
M. Simon
I read that the Wright controversy made 53% of whites and 56% of blacks less likely to vote for Obama.
That will help.
In addition 20% of Obama supporters said they would vote for McCain in the GE if Clinton gets the nod.
And 20% of Clinton supporters said they would vote for McCain in the GE if Obama gets the nod.
And that is only the beginning. Wait until Black Liberation Theology gets covered.
Honestly. I thought it would be very hard for Democrats to top Kerry. I was wrong. Heh.
dslak
I read that Obama is a big poopyhead, and that John McCain is gonna give him a wet willy.
p.lukasiak
well, these are the people that Obama claims he can attract to ensure his victory…. so I really can’t disagree with you.
**********
NR.. re the CBS poll…
considering how most (not all, but most) of the “mainstream” media has been wetting their undies over the speech, its unsurprising that “most who heard or read about it” would reflect the conventional wisdom.
here’s another quote from the story, which show that the speech wasn’t the masterstroke that the Obots claim it is…
now correct me if I’m wrong, but this means that 25% of the people who though Obama could unite the country a month ago no longer think that.
TenguPhule
She could if she ripped off Carl Rove’s head on live television and spit down the hole and then beheading Dick Cheney with a rusty butcher knife. Hell, she’d be able to solve her money woes at the same time if she sold tickets to the event.
TenguPhule
You’re wrong. PLease report to Algebra II for a refresher course on percentages.
M. Simon
Let me add. I’m Jewish and have my ear to the ground in that community. Obama is tanking there. In ’04 if you were going to defect to Bush you had to keep silent. This year the revolt is open.
The man was never properly vetted. There are rumors about that Rove & Co. propped up Obama at critical junctures to keep his candidacy alive. He is a Republican Trojan Horse.
http://www.thecityedition.com/Pages/Archive/Winter08/2008Election.html
My estimation? Clinton can’t win, but she can destroy the party. So knock yourselves out guys.
Oh yeah. Obama has curtailed press access. You know how the press gets access in that situation? They run negative stories and make him respond. The bleeding has just started. The man is an amateur.
M. Simon
For the math challenged 1/2 divided by 2/3s = 3/4. Which would make it a 25% drop.
If your politics is as good as your math (excluding PL of course) your candidate is in trouble.
Kilkee
My favorite part of the Pat Buchanan quote is how those lucky 600,000 Africans were enslaved BUT “introduced to Christian salvation.” As you know, before that, they had some phony animist bullshit going on back in their villages. Once they were fully settled in their slave cabins they could be happy knowing that once they’d been worked and/or beaten to death by good white Christians they’d be happy again, forever. You can’t say that wasn’t a great deal for them, really.
Pb
Is that like the Go-Bots? And you wonder why no one here takes you seriously–the Transformers were way cooler!
Splitting Image
” I’m Jewish and have my ear to the ground in that community.”
Wow. Street cred. I’m convinced.
Last time I knew someone with his ear to the ground it was because he’d been run over.
Soylent Green
M. Simon —
Thanks for depositing your load here.
Let’s see if I have this straight. Obama is a Rovian trojan horse; Rove is getting Republicans to vote for him.
While Rush is getting Republicans to vote for Clinton.
So it’s a wash then.
Tara the anti-social social worker
This is all very good news for Rudy Giuliani!
PaulB
ROFL…. Dear heart, you really should work on your conspiracy theories, since this one is exceptionally silly. That article you pointed us to was one of the most hilarious I’ve read in recent times, with not one shred of evidence to support its many webs of fantasy. Good stuff.
Dear heart, McCain is toast, as is the Republican Party this year, regardless of whether Clinton or Obama wins. See you in November.
LOL… No, dear, he hasn’t, which is why he sat down with both Chicago papers recently for a couple of hours and told them to ask him anything they wanted, including any and all questions about Rezko. You really should keep up.
Right… This “amateur” has taken on the Clinton machine and is beating it. Tell us again how “amateurish” that is, won’t you?
PaulB
You read wrong, dear.
Yes, dear, just like the many Huckabee, Paul, and Romney supporters have vowed to not vote for McCain. A funny thing’s going to happen between now and the election, though. The overwhelming majority of all of these voters are going to change their minds. Funny, that.
ROFL…. And here we thought it would be hard for Republicans to top Bush, but hey, you picked McCain. See you in November, dear. Try not to cry too much.
jones
yeah, and 47% say its fair or poor asshole
fair means they weren’t convinced.
You’ll be convinced come November when mr. GOD DAMN AMERICA gets beat in a landslide.
you lefties really do believe this didn’t a bit of difference to Americans, don’t you? You’ll keep citing polls that show you are soooo correct, then wake up one morning when the poll that matters, the election, does the same thing it did to you when you believed John Kerry’s exit polls.
And I’ll just laaaaaaaaaugh.
Soylent Green
Wright didn’t ask God to damn all of America, just the part that contains you clowns.
So let’s just see how your senile candidate, who enjoys the enthusiastic backing of every Republican voter, does between now and November.
demimondian
Like you did in November 2006, right? You just laughed and laughed and laughed, didn’t you?
PaulB
Reverend Wright is running for elected office? Who knew?
Birdzilla
Barack Obama people should quit listening to his mindless blather and find out the truth that not even READERS DIGEST wont tell you
binzinerator
M. Simon:
Even if that man stood on one foot and asked you to do to others as you would have others do to yourself I am inclined to think you would still consider him not properly vetted.
Because, dude, that’s basically what he’s been doing.
I’m inclined to think you are the Republican Trojan horse here.
jones
read and weep, peckerheads:
Barack Obama’s speech about race on Tuesday impressed many who witnessed it or read it. But most of America did neither, and many of them — white and black — were less persuaded of the speech’s capacity to heal racial wounds, or to put the issue of race behind Obama as he continues his quest for the White House.
That’s according to a new poll by InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion. […]
Of those who knew about the controversy and the speech, we asked, “Taking all this into account, are you more or less likely to support Obama for president?”
Less likely (52%)
More likely (19%)
About the same (27%)
No opinion (2%) […]
[T]he poll displays no numbers flattering to Obama. Most startling is that blacks by 56% to 31% said the speech made them less likely to vote for him. […]
Democrats disapproved 48% to 28%, which looks sobering for Obama on first glance, but might portend otherwise. […]
The disturbing numbers for Obama are the independent voters. By 56% to 13%, they said they’re less likely to vote for him because of the speech.
This finding might explain media’s errancy:
And Democratic whites were more sympathetic with the speech’s message than black ones.
As most press members are “Democratic whites,” this explains a lot, doesn’t it?
http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_320_294.aspx