About Iraq, Fester asks what I’ve been thinking about all day.
During the Second Battle of Fallujah, the US attacking forces were composed of a composite division as six battalions led the main attack, another battalion as a diversion force, and two battalions as local reserves. Additionally an Iraqi Army brigade was present as a mop-up/press release force. The defending forces would have been the equivlant of two or three battalions of light infantry and local insurgents/neighborhood militias. Fallujah was a city of roughly 300,00 residents before the assault. And this assualt was supported by theatre level artillery and air support. And despite this large armored and heavy infantry force with excellent air support, plenty of helicopter mobility and firepower, superior logistics, the defending force was able to inflict heavy absolute and proportional casualties — roughly 10% of the US force was wounded or killed, and many infantry companies saw 30% to 50% casualty levels.
The Iraqi Army force in Basra is a single division of lightly supported infantry with some US/UK locally controlled air support, minimal artillery, minimal aviation support. Basra is a city of 2.6 million people (2003) and it is overwhelmingly Shi’ite. If one assumes that one half of one percent of the male population are available to be called up for Mahdi Army fighting units, the defenders have numerical parity with the attacking force. That is never a good thing, especially when the defenders are on their own grounds, fighting from prepared positions in dense urban networks and have higher morale and more firepower than the attackers.
So again — why was this attacked launched with what looks to be massively insuffucient force levels on the part of the Iraqi Army? Was it pure staff stupidity/buying into your own propaganda that the JAM is a bunch of thugs with no popular support? Was it that the 14th Division was the only reliable division? Was it a hope that the introduction of a large force would destablize the local equilibriums of power and thus prompt local Badr and Fadillah militia attacks?
Indeed, the organized Iraqi army has proved absolutely terrible at acting on its own. Meanwhile insurgents have adapted to inflicting casualties on our much, much better-prepared forces without losing an unacceptable number of their own people. The idea that the Iraqi army can roll in and crush Sadrist militias American-style, without the omnipotent intelligence that served Saddam’s forces, is laugh out loud silly.
Taking on the Sadrists is a brave move for Maliki’s government, and maybe a necessary one, but the field isn’t tilted in their favor. Sadr has more motivated fighters, home-field advantage, more men and better weapons. If the Maliki government utterly fails to decisively pacify Sadrist territory then it’s hard to see how they can hang onto the credibility to go on governing. The glaring question, of course, is what happens after that.
Believe it or not, the after-Maliki scenario may not be as painful as some think. Tbree reasons that come to mind:
* Before stepping away from government in protest Sadr built a halfway-credible coalition of nationalist legislators from both Shiite and Sunni constituencies. That’s good for reconciliation but bad for neocons; one point on which all of the parties agreed was that America needs to leave Iraq.
* Despite what some believe, Sadr is not an Iranian puppet, in fact the reverse appears to be true. Since early in the invasion Sadrists worked harder than any other Shiite party to fight Iranian intervention (and there was plenty). The Sadrists’ red team, the guys who basically danced to a tune played in Tehran, wais the same SCIRI/ISCI who we prop up as Iraq’s current government. I think that war with Iran is a miserable idea for any number of reasons but that doesn’t mean that I hope for Iraq to be an Iranian client either. Swapping Maliki for anyone would be a step in the right direction as far as that is concerned, even if the alternative is Sadr. Hating us hardly excludes him from hating meddling foreigners in general.
* Sunni-Shiite ethnic cleansing in Iraq is largely done, and the neighborhoods won’t be re-mixed any time soon. The next major schism once the Shiite parties have worked out their differences will be Kurdish autonomy in general and Kirkuk in particular. There will be blood regardless of who controls the government in Baghdad, but the argument could be made that Maliki, holed up and isolated in the Green Zone, discredited by US patronage, without popular support or the loyalty of forces who mostly serve their sectarian roots, is the worst possible choice.
Then again, maybe I’m wrong and the Sadrists will give up, like they did when it was the much more impressive American army coming after them.
Notorious P.A.T.
John, sorry about West Virginia. They played a heck of a game.
LiberalTarian
Yeah, all those women, children and old folks–who needs ’em?
I know, I’m taking it out of context, but there is a disassociation I can’t seem to make when we talk about acceptable losses–how many tens of thousands of Iraqis have died in this immoral war? These guys aren’t out there fighting in the desert. They are fighting in streets where people live (well, they used to live, before they died or ran for their lives).
Unacceptable losses. Unacceptable.
jnfr
No, they’re not going to give up. A quote from Froomkin’s column today, that’s stuck with me:
“‘[T]here has never been a real political settlement,’ [Tufts University scholar Vali Nasr] said. ‘No, the big battle for Iraq hasn’t been fought yet. The future of Iraq has not been determined.’
GSD
So?
-GSD
Delia
I’m sort of wondering whose bright idea this was in the first place. Maliki’s an American puppet and it could well be this whole enterprise was another stunning idea by his American masters to make him prove his worth. The Bushies don’t want to tarnish their nice shiny Surge now that the election is getting close and Honest John is running on the Hundred Years’ War ticket, and I’m sure they’d be real pleased if their trusty puppets would pull Basra back into line. You know, stand up so we can stand down and all.
And another thing: this business of what lousy soldiers the Iraqis make, there’s something that’s always rung false about that to me. I mean, if some clueless bloody invader had conquered your country and was setting up a sort of occupation army composed of you and your countrymen — a quisling army, in other words — do you think you’d be all gung-ho and enthusiastic to work for them? OF COURSE they’re lousy soldiers. They have no reason not to be. OF COURSE the Sadrists are winning. It’s not only the military strategy. It’s the whole psychology of the situation.
demimondian
It’s not a brave idea — it’s an utterly boneheaded idea. The residents of Basra are completely aware of the real motivation behind al-Maliki’s move, because he and his nepots have jumped over all the neighborhoods controlled by the non-Sadrists and moved directly to attack Sadr. Sadr’s had months to resupply, and there’s every reason to assume he’s done so aggressively.
Jackmormon
I can’t help thinking that Cheney promised Maliki that the US military would back him, no matter how unpopular or unsuccessful the offensive against Sadr proved to be.
Delia
Cheney promised him, huh? That probably means Maliki’s time is up. The Dark Lord’s planning to get drunk and spray him in the face with birdshot.
jt
The only really combat-ready Iraqi army forces are in fact hand-picked Pershmerga militiamen from Kurdistan. They’re Sunnis and they hate Arabs, so they make good fighters down in the south. Other than that, there is no real Iraqi army to speak of.
jnfr
US armored troops are moving against Sadr City, according to the Wash Post, and there have been two deaths in the fucking Green Zone, says BBC. This was definitely planned, and it won’t end well.
Pelikan
Completely OT:
I passed by Limbaugh on the dial today and heard him claim that he has several of his minions who not only registered to to vote democratic, but got made delegates as well.
While it’s unlikely that he could possibly get enough of his mouthbreathers into Denver to make a difference, it is funny, because
A:) By attempting to phreak democracy he’s actually crossed the line into cartoonish supervillainy and
B:) It’s sad really, but the far right is so interested in the democrat’s primary because there’s nothing for them to be happy about in their own, they literally are left with nothing, since they see all three canidates as “the enemy.”
flavortext
Better Sadr than Badr!
On the bright side, the only people dying for Iraq are the Iraqis. On the dim side, we’re the reason they’re dying in the first place.
flavortext
I meant to say the only people dying for Iraq in this battle are the Iraqis.
flavortext
And by in this battle, I meant Basra. I definitely need some sleep. I was only being facetious anyway.
TenguPhule
Same shit, different year.
Take the lowest possible view of Iraq.
Assume it will get worse.
Watch as it does.
Lather, rinse and repeat.
Joshua
Aren’t a lot of Iraqi soldiers being trained by Blackwater?
Outsourcing government FTW.
Delia
There is no bright side in this pile of shit. There are only dark sides and darker sides.
Mike D.
The thing is, we’re fucked in Iraq. We’ve been fucked in Iraq. If we’re very lucky, our ground forces won’t be destroyed in detail while attempting a full retreat, and if we’re very very lucky, the propeller-heads will manage to confirm destruction of our crypto, our more surprising and dismaying toys, and our rooms and rooms full of highly revealing photographs, communiques and transcripts, unlike Vietnam where we left the Commies at least one of everything and several of quite a few things. This is family-member-with-cancer territory. Acceptance is crucial or you’ll eat yourself alive and be no good to anyone else.
Chaos in Basra: we didn’t lose 25,000 people today. Relentless artillery landing all over the Green Zone: we weren’t overrun today. Britain catching hell over “abandoning their position”: hey, they weren’t bent over and fucked like farm animals today, and the numbers were never good enough to hold back a rain of shit like this anyway, so even at their peak strength it could very well have happened. Today sucked, but it wasn’t The End yet.
No offense to anyone who thinks we’re leaving Iraq of our own accord, or that we even have time left to miracle up a sliver of peace with honor. I just stopped believing a few years ago. If nothing else, it was good training for watching Hillary go all Ike Turner on the Democratic Party.
stickler
Now, now, Mike D.
Things aren’t as bad as all that. For one thing, we still have massive superiority in firepower, if we choose to use it. (Presumably, Gröfaz Cheney thought it would be unnecessary when he had his little chat with Maliki last week.)
Yes, things are much worse than they should be. No, nobody’s over-running the Green Zone anytime soon. And, no, there’ll be no cutting off of our supply lines north from Basra.*
So just don’t worry so much. Things will probably work out fine. Remember: Mr. Sadr is scary-looking but just a big clueless bumpkin. Right?
(* = presuming our leadership is smart enough to NOT BOMB IRAN, which may indeed be a big presumption.)
TenguPhule
And in a battle of wits with General Betrayus, he’s the smart one.
Doomed is a fucking understatement.
If our troops are very lucky, they’ll be killed quickly.
Robert Sneddon
Fallujah was easy. Basra is hard.
Fallujah was a punishment beating, carried out after the bad publicity of the TV pictures of four dead security contractors being dragged through the city streets and their corpses burnt and hung on display for the world to see. It’s worth noting that on that same day seven US military personnel died in violence elsewhere but apparently that wasn’t sufficient reason to get mad and put an Iraqi city to the sword.
Basra is where Iraq earns most of its exports, and the Iraqi army can’t break Basra the way the US military broke Fallujah with air strikes and artillery and white phosphorous. After this is over Maliki and co. want the city working and the technicians who know how to repair oil pumping equipment back on the job ASAP. That limits their options and what they can do.
The Sadr militias don’t have that limitation. They can lose, pull out of Basra and burn the city and the port behind them leaving the Iraqi government forces in charge of Fallujah Mk II, for what it’s worth to them. If they really want to be nasty the Sadrists could just round up the technicians and shoot them before they leave.
By the way, don’t get focussed too much on bin-Sadr as an important person. He’s a figurehead, a bit like G. W. Bush. He was the senior survivor of his clan after Saddam’s depredations and he was put “in charge” of the Shi’a militias by that fact and little else. From what I’ve seen of the reports in the press, his ambition is to become a senior Muslim cleric (ayatollah) rather than a militia warlord, a job he has no real experience in. The militias are in his name but he has little day-to-day control over them and, it appears more and more, little strategic input too.
cbear
In watching the latest U.S. debacle in Iraq, it occurred to me that now might be a good time to reacquaint ourselves with a couple of technical military terms:
FUBAR (Fucked up Beyond all Recognition)
SNAFU (Situation Normal, all Fucked Up)
The simple use of these two terms should suffice in describing our military situation over the next days, weeks, and months, in any rational discussion.
Mike D.
I know we have firepower, or more precisely Naval Air and the Air Force still have firepower (we’re a little low on things that run on solid rocket fuel, but we’ve just about licked the problem of blowing up an entire facility once per production run, so we’ll be okay with that by late summer). So what? The wisest Sergeant Major in the whole Coalition still can’t explain who we’re trying to kill and/or whose shit we’re trying to wreck in the service of politics by other means, so what good are bombs and cruise missiles and rockets? There are no friendlies except for us and the UK. Saturation bombing is so two hours ago. We whitewashed Fallujah with “marker rounds” more than once and they’re tanned, rested and ready to throw some hands again. Fail! Massive fail!
Even if we could build a bomb the size of Baghdad, cut out a hole the shape of the Green Zone, and drop it, would that make any kind of useful contribution towards bending the sociopolitical clusterfuck on the ground through n-dimensional space so that the Iraqis stop squabbling among themselves, give us have their oil revenue in perpetuity, and establish diplomatic relations with Israel?
The Army and Marines are being converted into a long ugly smear, like a BASE jumper who misjudged the wind, and much of our heavy equipment is more or less literally scrap metal. A couple thousand tons of Chobham armor to be salvaged and sold to the highest bidder (China, with Russia getting sloppy seconds) for weapons testing: just another gift from Bushco to the Iraqi people. It’s sick and wrong and there will be no justice.
t jasper parnel
Go, read, learn
joe
than the government.
And they always will, as long as we are there.
I mean, if some clueless bloody invader had conquered your country and was setting up a sort of occupation army composed of you and your countrymen—a quisling army, in other words—do you think you’d be all gung-ho and enthusiastic to work for them? OF COURSE they’re lousy soldiers.
QFT. Bush spent four years talking about “training” and “standing up” the Iraqi government army – as if the problem was the Iraq has a shortage of men with military training and access to firearms!
Idiots.
Dennis - SGMM
Excellent insight there. Thank you for the link.
One of the points that jumped out at me was the idea that al-Maliki may be attempting to cement his control over Iraqi security forces as an attempt to redress his Dawa party’s lack of its own militia. I think that he may be miscalculating because the Iraqi security forces are larded with members of other parties’ militias. While all of the others have reasons of their own to oppose the Sadrists, I doubt that they would be so compliant in an attack against, say, the Badr Corps.
Grand Moff Texan
Yes, but the difference is that the US is going back to area bombing and hoping it doesn’t make the press … too much.
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