I really do not know how this will play out:
Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey plans to endorse Sen. Barack Obama for president today in Pittsburgh, sending a message both to the state’s primary voters and to undecided superdelegates who might decide the close race for the Democratic presidential nomination.
Dan Pfeiffer, deputy communications director for the Obama campaign, confirmed that Casey would announce his support during a rally at the Soldiers and Sailors Military Museum and Memorial and that he would then set out with the Illinois senator on part of a six-day bus trip across the state.
The endorsement comes as something of a surprise. Casey, a deliberative and cautious politician, had been adamant about remaining neutral until after the April 22 primary. He had said he wanted to help unify the party after the intensifying fight between Obama and Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton.
The name Casey in PA is like the name Kennedy in Massachusetts, and I suspect the outcome will be the same. Obama is going to lose PA, most likely, and this is more of a signal to super-delegates than anything else.
See also the Dodd.
myiq2xu
Who did war-opponent John Murtha endorse?
joe
I’m from Massachusetts, and I suspect you’re right. I was stunned by Hillary’s victory her on Super Tuesday. Didn’t see it coming at all.
I shouldn’t have been so surprised. Massachusetts is very Democratic, but that’s not the same thing as being very liberal. There’s a reason the conservative wing of the party always controls the House leadership.
That, and all my aunties voted for Hillary, because it’s their turn, dammit!
joe
Who did war-opponent John Murtha endorse?
The candidate who didn’t introduce earmark reform.
Oink oink!
myiq2xu
Real ponies don’t oink.
Zifnab
I’m going to have to play the “who cares?” card. This isn’t a question of whether Hillary can still win, it’s a question of whether Obama will wrap up the nomination before the convention.
Casey’s endorsement just seems to indicate that the party apparatus has developed increasing disapproval of Clinton-style tactics. When a guy who’s sitting on the fence because he wants to preserve party unity suddenly jumps in, you can only assume he’s giving his endorsement to preserve party unity.
The Other Steve
Do not be concerned, the good little citizens of PA will vote for Hillary because it’s her turn.
myiq2xu
LOL! How about assuming he got a better offer?
TR
Casey’s endorsement will help chip away at Hillary’s support in the white working class, especially in his home town of Scranton.
Given the forces aligned against him, Obama’s not going to win this state, but as long as he avoids a 15+ margin, he’s going to be fine. His current 21 point lead in NC and a strong showing in IN will counteract whatever happens in PA.
In other news, Leahy just told Hillary it’s time to go. I’m starting to suspect he likes being told to go fuck himself on the Senate floor.
John Cole
Myiq- It is clear by now you are just here trolling to troll. Knock it off.
myiq2xu
Keep insulting people, that’s how to win them over.
Because it’s just not possible that anyone would vote for Hillary because they think she’s the best candidate, right?
myiq2xu
Hillary supporter = troll
ntr Fausto Carmona
I’d say its more a matter of ‘when’ than ‘will’ at this point.
The Moar You Know
I love a good e-suicide in the morning.
Paul L.
Loved by the City elites and hated by everyone else?
You do know that Casey describes himself as Pro-gun and Pro-life.
Why would Obama want to be associated with that?
myiq2xu
Only if they change the rules or fix the election. Neither candidate will have enough pledged delegates to lock-up the nomination, so it will be settled by the unpledged delegates. They aren’t supposed to vote until the convention in August.
Anything else will require a rule change or some deal made in a smoke-filled backroom.
That would be cheating.
TheFountainHead
Hillary supporter = Those who can’t put two and two together to make four let alone enough states to equal 270 electoral votes.
I’m dead serious. Everything about her candidacy says the she is the wrong woman at the wrong time for this country, and that’s simply without even factoring in how well Obama’s candidacy fits into this moment in history. You can make the argument that Obama’s campaign has, by the positions it has taken up, forced her into being the wrong candidate at the wrong time, and I might agree with you, but it doesn’t make it any less true. Like I’ve said a thousand times before, if the American people can’t see how excellent a candidate Obama is and how much he could do for our faith in our own government, well then we deserve another painful, embarrassing, and disillusioned four years.
joe
The Hillary Troll wants to make sure the nomination is settled by superdelegates at the convention, and wants them to vote against both the popular vote outcome and the pledged delegate outcome, because…
you’re going to love this part…
he doesn’t want a “deal made in a smoke-filled backroom.”
John Cole
Is it just me, or has there been a steady decline in the quality of our trolls? What happened to all the good ones? Do they all have lucrative writing jobs for the Weekly Standard? Have they all become Red State front-pagers?
PeterJ
The better offer was winning the general election.
Jen
Thanks for the Dodd link. Thought that was good.
If he still has any sway, this thing should be wrapped up by about May 7. Ours and Indiana’s primaries are May 6. That seems more than reasonable, so ten bucks says Hillary stays in.
Sasha
Oh I can easily believe that, but Obama is showing himself to be at least as good a candidate as Clinton and the better candidate to actually win the general against McCain. And I believe more and more people are actually coming around to this conclusion.
Of course, your mileage may vary.
over_educated
Uh… I don’t think anyone is disagreeing that is Hillary wanted to she could drag this out to the convention.
Nah, I’m banking on Hillary figuring it out before hand and backing out graciously. I had vacilated between whether she would really fight til the end (and she may) or throw in the towel before or after the PA vote, but I am guessing that her and her campaign are starting to see the writing on the wall. She has had a particularily bad week, and more and more supers are openly endorsing Obama. I think even Hillary will realize that the best course of action will be to graciously bow out.
Of course, that’s just my opion, I could be totally wrong. Hillary might decide to go Nuclear andhead to the convention guns a blazing.
In either scenario she will lose, the quesiton is really: does she want to lose with dignity?
4tehlulz
No, Paul L always has sucked.
gypsy howell
It’s going to require a tremendous amount of time, brainpower and effort for the Keyboard Kommandos to spin the news out of Iraq into a triumphant strategic victory for Our Dear Leader, leaving not much in the way of resources to defeat reality here.
Jake
You do know that Casey describes himself as Pro-gun and Pro-life.
Why would Obama want to be associated with that?
Well, let’s be clear here: Casey is buying what Obama is selling, not the other way around.
Still, this strikes me as a question that illuminates a fundamental misunderstanding of Obama. He’s interested in finding common ground with people. Ostensibly, there’s plenty he’s found with Casey beyond views on abortion and guns. You know, disagree without being disagreeable? You think there’s any chance that’s not “just words” for Obama? I certainly do.
ACK
As long as that towel isn’t the one that landed on the kitchen sink on that patch of scorched earth.
Jen
Interesting poll data, turns out ig’nant crackers don’t like Obama!
Zifnab
Unfortunately, in a Democracy, we’re not looking for “anyone”, we’re looking for a “plurality”. Unless the supers want to piss on their constituents, they’ll – as likely as not – vote along district lines. Since Obama has the majority of the popular vote and the majority of pledged delegates, we’d have to see an upset among the supers.
Given Obama’s pledged delegate lead, we’d have to see a rather large upset among the supers.
Given that Casey – a fence sitter – is throwing his support to Obama early, we can conclude that Obama has a foot in with the “swing” super delegates. It’s only a matter of time before Obama locks up the 2000+ delegates he needs.
Myiq, you’re like a kitten before a tidal wave, meowing on about how it’ll break before it hits you. I suspect that by convention time you’ll be a sobbing wreck, and I truly pity you.
Jen
Interesting poll data, turns out ig’nant crackers don’t like Obama!
Why don’t we ever get one of those trolls? An anti-miscegenation troll would be a refreshing change of pace, really.
joe
Realistically, Hillary couldn’t drop out during the Wright fiasco.
There really was an honest-to-goodness chance that it was going to sink Obama’s candidacy. I can’t really blame her for sticking it out this long. Mondale went into the 1984 convention with fewer elected delegates than the dropped-out Hart, and got the nomination, because even though Hart won the majority of delegates, he had to leave the race.
Jen
Fair enough, but d’ya ever get the feeling that they’re continuing to pin their hopes on the next, as-yet-unknown, public relations nightmare implosion that has a .005% chance of happening, and that’s good enough for the Clintons?
The Grand Panjandrum
1. The candidate who lied about Bosnia, wouldn’t admit it, stabbed Wright in the back, won’t go back on her obviously stupid war vote, and appears completely overwhelmed by the criticisms she’s getting from the non-advocacy group liberal audience on the internet.
2. The candidate who thinks the electorate has no memory, short-term image is everything, liberal politics get you destroyed, and the audience can’t talk back.
I would go on but I know it won’t do much good.
Now to the actual topic at hand:
Casey Dems may take another look at Obama based on the endorsenment, but I can’t say it will sway many votes. The additional SD vote is what will matter the most in the end, because Clinton has no reasonable expectation to make any significant change in the pledged delegate gap. They are now seperated by 6% with 17% of the pledged delegates remaining to be decided.
joe
Look at Huckabee; when his time came, he took advantage of the next available primary defeat to announce his withdrawal. He didn’t go on TV one day announcing he was going to fight on forever, and then the next day reverse himself.
Unfortunately for Hillary and the party, Pennsylvania is a month away, and she’s probably going to win it.
jake
The main thing I get out of these endorsements is another flood of words from the bobbleheads. A democrat endorsing a democrat = Not News, and no amount of gazing at bird guts, cloud formations and tea leaves will make it news.
OT – Since he’s here I’ll ask again
Has anyone ever seen Paul L. and p. luckshake in the same room?
zmulls
The Casey name is beloved in Western PA. The only reason that guy is a Senator is that a lot of Pennsylvanians loved his Dad. I was furious that they went with a name rather than a solid Senator to unseat Santorum (anyone could have beat Santorum that year).
But fact of the matter is that there are lots of PA residents who will pull a level with “Casey” next to it out of habit.
I think it helps a lot in western PA. I think it shifts a couple of points over to Obama.
myiq2xu
You’re really delusional. I have said over and over that I will support Obama if he is the nominee, but I think Hillary is the better candidate.
Let’s finish the primaries, have a convention and pick a nominee. Quit trying to short-circuit the process and let democracy do its thing. There are a whole lot of voters that haven’t had a chance to vote yet. Obama is in the lead, but he hasn’t won yet.
myiq2xu
WTF?
Hart had to drop out in 1988, not 1984. Mondale had the delegate lead.
neil
Loved by the City elites and hated by everyone else?
You do know that Casey describes himself as Pro-gun and Pro-life.
In Soviet Pennsylvania, city elites are pro-life and the salt of the earth is pro-choice!
Jen
shorter Myiq: It’s the battle, not the war.
ntr Fausto Carmona
We’ll have a nominee well before the convention. When Obama hits the 50% mark in pledged delegates, it’ll be over.
Svensker
Is that a “his opinion doesn’t count because he’s writing a book” thing like the dittoheads are always spouting?
joe
No, dear, Walter Mondale and Gary Hart did not run for president in 1988. That was the year Dukakis won.
Pug
Jen Says:
Interesting poll data, turns out ig’nant crackers don’t like Obama!
Why don’t we ever get one of those trolls? An anti-miscegenation troll would be a refreshing change of pace, really.
Yes, these are the so-called Reagan Democrats that we are all supposed to love so much. They’re supposed to be the heart and sould of the Democratic Party.
Of course, they’re called Reagan Democrats for a reason. They tend to vote Republican because they’re easily manipulated by jingoism, resentment and fear.
Jen
McCain can have the Reagan Democrats in exchange for some sweet, sweet, Obamacans.
fester
John — speaking as a Western PA-er, I think this is actually a pretty valuable endorsement as a validator — snipping some from what I wroter at the ‘Hog:
Casey’s endorsement is a surprise and is very valuable to Obama because he can serve as a validator for conservative Democrats in the central part of the state that Obama is okay. If Casey appears at Obama’s side and says he is a going to be a good president willing to listen to conservative Democrats, this is a very credible and valuable validation. It will not allow Obama to win central state congressional districts as Casey does not have much of an organization still on the ground, but it will help Obama keep the margins and thus the delegate counts close
All Obama needs to do is avoid being blown out, and having Casey actively campaigning in the Northeast, Central and Southwest in the rural districts will help keep the Clinton margins of victory low enough that Obama should stay close based on his strength in Southeast PA and Pittsburgh. He won’t win it, but he does not need to. Just stay close.
sparky
i think you should have a best of trolling thread. more seriously, for trolling to work there has to be at least the appearance of a counter-argument. there isn’t one any longer for Iraq, unless you count “the not-working of the surge is proof that it’s working”. In other words it’s impossible to get anyone to take the bait, so why try?
The same is true with Obama-Clinton, I think. Clinton has ginned up an impressive amount of smoke, but now that it’s beginning to clear there are even suggestions in the NYT that she should quit. There really isn’t much debate any longer about Clinton’s chances of winning so there’s no new strawmen to build, and consequently less trolling material to work with.
myiq2xu
Mondale and Hart ran against each other in 1984, but Hart didn’t drop out, Mondale won.
Hart was the presumed frontrunner for 1988 but had to drop out when he got caught doing some monkey business with Donna Rice. Dukakis won the nomination that year.
BTW – Don’t call me “dear.” I’m not your boyfriend.
joe
I stand corrected.
In my defense, I was 14.
Duros Hussein 62
Because it’s just not possible that anyone would vote for Hillary because they think she’s the best candidate, right?
Right.
Brachiator
I suspect you might be right here. On Wednesday, someone on the TeeVee suggested that after Hillary won big in PA, they should just “give it to her” because she would have shown that she would win all the big, important states.
At this point in the campaign, no.
Senator Clinton is not the best candidate. She is not the better candidate. She is not even a good candidate.
It’s not just a matter of Clinton supporters vs Obama supporters. It is that Senator Clinton has not given anyone who doesn’t already love her an affirmative reason to support her.
Napoleon
Hillary Death Watch
http://www.slate.com/id/2187558/
Napoleon
Is this the fat lady warming up? Obama extends his lead over HRC in Gallup poll to 8 points.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/election2008.aspx
zzyzx
I actually am starting to lean towards letting things last through NC. I don’t trust polls 100%. While I’m feeling pretty confident that they’re showing no Wright effect, it doesn’t hurt to let the voters prove it.
If Obama can cut PA to under 10 and then wins big in NC, there’s no way that Clinton stays in. I just bet a coworker a shiny new penny that she drops out within a week of NC.
…of course, she might also be very low on money so we’ll see…
joe
There is all this angst right now, but it was only a few weeks ago that Ann Coulter was saying she would support Hillary Clinton over McCain if dreamy, dreamy Mitt Romney didn’t win the nomination.
April, May, June – two weeks after she drops out, nobody remembers this “crisis,” and everyone starts getting excited about backing the Democratic nominee.
Brachiator, I used to feel like you do – I thought Hillary’s support was an inch deep and a mile wide – but it’s not. There are many, many millions of passionate Hillary Clinton supporters out there. Just not as many as Barack Obama suppoters, but still enough to make this a close race.
zzyzx
That’s why I want this over after NC. Labor Day is pretty late to get excited.
NR
At this point, it’s going to take a lot longer than two weeks. If Hillary drops out after North Carolina, we might be okay. But if she drags this out all the way to a floor fight at the convention, there won’t be enough time to unify the party for the general.
And I’m convinced that this is what she wants. Now that she has no chance of winning the nomination, she wants McCain to win so that she can run again in four years. She’s been playing a 2012 strategy for weeks now.
Some Guy Named Matt
Probably…..
for the 1st time in my life, I got off my ass and decided to do something for once. Last night I found myself at an Obama organizing meeting for an area outside of philly, (not going to say where but it’s rick santurum country). About 50 people showed up, and 10-12 of them like my self recently changed that R to a D. And another couple of people joined us from the independent camp. My sister in another area of PA is seeing alot of the same thing. With that in mind, i think the PA race is going to be a lot closer then what the poles show.
Notorious P.A.T.
Hillary Clinton is a good candidate. . . for anyone who favored invading Iraq and wants to stay as long as we possibly can.
NR
By the way, Dean has said he wants this thing decided no later than July 1st.
http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSN2842426420080328
I think that’s cutting it too close, personally. As soon as Obama is declared the winner of the pledged delegate race, the supers should get behind him and end this thing.
JWeidner
I haven’t seen this reported anywhere else, but the LA Times is reporting that Sen. Leahy has called on Clinton to drop out of the race.
here
Kilkee
If Hillary is really running a 2012 strategy she’s dumber than I think. If she stays in this too long (and she’s pushing it now) and Obama loses to McCain, her argument that she should have been the nominee will fall on the deaf ears of millions of Obama supporters who will believe (correctly or not) that she cost him teh GE by savaging him in the primary. HRC will never be President, because she won’t win this year, and won’t win in the future. That may be unfortunate, since she’s a credible candidate, but life is unfair. She had the misfortune to run into a phenomenon when she might have otehrwise skated to the win.
JWeidner
I take that bit about not seeing it anywhere else back…just found it on MSNBC’s First Read as well.
The Other Steve
I get the distinct impression that Hillary is pushing a lot of this nonsense now, to try to hide the fact that she’s done. She’s afraid that if voters in PA realize that she’s done, they may just take a good look at Obama and vote for him instead.
She has to win PA by more than 20 points and there’s a possibility now that she may just lose.
myiq2xu
Obama was on The View, and the ladies asked him tougher questions than any journalists I’ve seen.
brendancalling
this is good news for obama.
To the trolls: yes, Casey is pro-guns and pro-life, much like the rural counties of Western and Northern PA.
However, being a 2nd Amendment supporter isn’t the solely the province of right-wingers and conservatives. I’m VERY left wing, and I am an ardent gun rights supporter, as are many of my friends.
Casey’s pro-life stance, while annoying, is tempered by his staunch support for contraception, which he believes insurers and the state should cover.
Casey’s support should help Obama in the western and northern counties. There are a couple of weeks to go: Clinton’s having a bad week, more super-delegates are speaking out about the threats from her financial backers, and I have a gut feeling Obama may actually win our state.
it’ll be tight, but I think he might be able to pull it off.
Jen
Are you *still* pretending to be a guy?
myiq2xu
I have a crush on Baba Wawa
myiq2xu
Older women, are beautiful lovers
Older women, they understand
I’ve been around some, and I have discovered
That older women know just how to please a man.
joe
It’s certainly going to be strange to have an election where the press has a crush on both candidates.
Think about it: Bush/Kerry, Bush/Gore, Clinton/Dole, Clinton/Bush, Reagan/Mondale, Reagan/Carter, Carter/Ford – the press hated one and loved the other.
Bush/Dukakis, the press hated them both.
NR
The press may not hate Obama – they may even like him a little. They are, however, absolutely, ga-ga, head over heels in love with McCain. It’s affected their coverage, and will continue to do so throughout the campaign. Digby talks about it here:
http://digbysblog.blogspot.com/2008/03/cosmological-flyboy-by-digby-neal.html
This is going to be a real problem in the GE.
joe
Naw, Chris Matthews totally has the Tweety man-crush going on for Obama.
I expect him to start speculating on his manly scent any day now.
“D’ya…d’ya think he’s got that Old Spice and linen smell? That masculine, urbane-but-tough scent?”
Chris Matthews has some weird gender issues.
D-Chance.
As we all know, as goes Scranton, so goes the nation.
“… and there were thirty-thousand pounds… of bananas!”
Asti
by now? Only by now? I thought it was clear ages ago.
Asti
What I want to know is why those who already did love her don’t see how much of an embarrassment she has become and are willing to accept her loving comments about McCain, meetings with Scaife, et al and her using Drudge and other right-wing noise to get her message out. What is WRONG with those people?
joe
He’s not trolling, he’s just a minority.
He makes reasonable points, and is no more disrespectful than the other commenters are to him.
I have sympathy, since I’ve become the token liberal on the Hit & Run web site.
The Other Steve
I don’t think the McCain crush will last long. After a bit you’re going to see them turn their guns on him.
Jess
And even if he is trolling, he’s amusing enough for me to welcome his comments. C’mon, kids–isn’t this what we come to BJuice for? What fun would it be if we all agreed? Or even just respectfully disagreed? We’re all here for the pie fights, aren’t we?
Scrutinizer
When did he ever do that? All I’ve seen him do is duck serious questions about why he thinks Clinton is the better/more experienced candidate. All I’ve seen from him are bad one-liners and talking points. Maybe if he ever makes a reasonable point, I’ll stop thinking of him as a troll.
Pb
Eh. If myiq wanted to do something positive for Hillary here, he’d stop posting. Or, failing that, cut out the stupid Darrellbot schtick. But he’s no more doing either of those than Hillary is dropping out of the race or cutting out the negative campaigning, and in perhaps only that sense of things, is he a true supporter, right up there with Mark Penn and Howard Wolfson. A true believer on the front lines of the fight for Hillary to lose the nomination.
Tax Analyst
Sez the expert at it. I know you’ve certainly won me over with your thoughtful and reasoned comments. You’ve given us all SO MANY good reasons to vote for her.
Boy, I jest can’t hardly wait to vote for that there Hillary.
snark/
Brachiator
Thanks for this.
I forgot to record it, but I think I know a couple of people who may have it. I was curious to see Obama in one of his first TV show appearances (as opposed to official campaign stops) since the Wright media blast.
Anticorium
Then it should be no trouble to quote three of them from previous threads.
I’m not going to hold my breath waiting.
TenguPhule
Dear Hillary,
Go the fuck away.
Please.
-America