This was unexpected.
NAJAF, Iraq, March 30 (Reuters) – Iraqi Shi’ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr called on his armed followers on Sunday to leave the streets and stop battling government forces in Basra and other southern towns.
[…] In his statement Sadr denied that his followers possessed heavy weapons. He said the government should stop large-scale arrests of his followers and implement an amnesty to free prisoners held in detention.
I should probably dispel any misunderstanding about what this is and what it’s not. Sadr is saying that his militia will stop fighting as long as Maliki and the US don’t attack him, plus some demands for prisoner amnesty. The Mehdi army will hand its weapons over, Sadr, says, but only to a government ready to kick the Americans out of Iraq. If Sadr meant to surrender he would have asked people to hand over their weapons and pleaded for terms. This is Sadr asking Maliki to accept that his mission to cripple the Mehdi army has failed. It says that Sadr and not Maliki has the power to control this fight, and early reports seem to be bearing that out.
The decision for Maliki must be painful. Honoring Sadr’s terms would make him look weak, but as things stood the Iraqi government was on a short path to losing Basra and most of the Shiite south. The choice between losing now or losing later isn’t much of a choice.
Sadr, meanwhile, looks a lot like a guy who would rather win democratically in November than knock the government over and take power as a warlord. For Iraqis it must make an interesting contrast.
mikesdak
I agree.I’d read somewhere that he’s a better politician than anything, and I think this shows it. Now he can claim that no one loyal to him is involved in any further fighting, and lay the blame for any deaths and damage on the Iraqi government while preserving his persecuted-by-the-Americans-and-their-puppet image for the elections. He can also let Maliki clean out the rebel elements in his organization, since they’ll pesumably be the ones still fighting.
This also calls out Maliki in another way; it removes what everyone believes, despite his statements, was his prime target. It also could make Maliki look really ineffective if the fighting continues and he can’t get things under control.
scrutinizer
On the other hand, you might call this the kitchen sink strategy.
DR
Sadr also needs to make clear to everyone that he is in complete charge of the Mahdi Army, that it is not a rogue force which could go out of control at any moment. It’s only that way that he can win the November elections.
And yes, Maliki looks like the chump he really is. Maliki is a figurehead, and this episode was nothing but him thinking he was bigger than his britches…
jon
You don’t mean to imply that there may soon be a new leader in Iraq and that this new leader is not exactly what the United States government wanted as we sought to implement democracy in the region? Luckily, if Senator McCain is elected, we can have another test for this whole friendly-nation-building theory in a neighboring country. I’m certain we can get this right eventually. Our problem is a lack of good candidates, so maybe there are some in Middle Eastern hotspots like Geneva and Paris and Stockholm who are just waiting to show their electoral expertise in places like Gaza, Basra, Bagdad, Bam, and Teheran. And if Clinton is elected, I’m sure we’ll be able to dismiss the anti-American candidate victories because they aren’t located in secure locations like the Green Zone and wouldn’t have voted for pro-American candidates in the general election anyhow. Or they were caucuses, not primaries. Or the super-imamegates will do as they’re told or we wouldn’t have this mess.
Damnit, just get the hell out already and admit that this is fucked.
dbrown
American soldiers get out? Let the terrorist win? It’s far more important that we give the surage time, that is, until the democrats take power and they can be fully blamed for the ‘lost’ of Iraq to Iran and the terrorist. re-pubics will use any amount of American blood to further the re-pubic cause: these blood thirsty murdering dumb fucks will kill as many american soldiers needed to just further thier control of power and get the stupid followers to vote for the cause.
w vincentz
In this Shia vs Shia power struggle, Sadr is clearly the winner. Need anyone be reminded that Maliki and the Badrs are more alligned with Iran than the nationalist, Sadr?
At this point, US forces should be contemplating “exit strategies”. Sadr just proved how widespread his support is and that the US backed Maliki is just a little dog that takes directions from Cheney.
On a note of caution, if any connection with Iran military participation can be trumped up, watch out. The shit will hit the fan in a blink.
jon
What’s the Arabic for ARVN?
w vincentz
“What’s the Arabic for ARVN?”
Maliki’s forces.
Tsulagi
Sadr is the Magical Unity Cleric. The MUC and his supporters are simply calling on Maliki to realize he can’t win, so he should stop campaigning and go home.
p.a.
Wow. Pretty effective maneuvering by Sadr. Looks like Maliki’s
best chance in an election is if the Bushites send Gonzalez over to run it; use the ‘Mississippi 1920’ strategy.
Will be interesting to see Bush’s reaction if he’s still in when an Iraqi gvt. asks us to GTFU. Interesting to see the US media reaction also; previous post made a good point about the coming ‘Dems lost Iraq’ meme. Hope the Dems get out in front on that one. Think the American people are stupid enough to fall for it? I would normally say yes, but I get the impression after 8 years of Bushshit and 25 of RNC propaganda buffonery, a desensitization has set in.
Big losers, of course, are Iraqi women. There will be some sort of religious code hanging over their heads. But that horse left the barn a while ago.
Oops. Even bigger losers, of course; the dead and maimed.
p.a.
Uh, duh. GTFO. gotta ease up on the am bourbon…
DR
w vincentz: Problem is, Iran WAS involved… On both sides.
They have financed and armed every side of this intra-Shi’a battle (Al-Sadr himself confirmed this). So you KNOW the right will ONLY mention Sadr receiving Iranian aide, and not the fact that the Badr Brigades were actually created by Iran, and that Maliki is himself a strong Iranian ally.
And that Sadr is probably the most likely to keep his distances from Iran as soon as the fighting ends…
ploeg
The ARVN was heads and shoulders more effective and reliable than these guys in Iraq will ever be.
w vincentz
DR,
You are correct. Iran backed them both, just like the US backed both Maliki’s Shias and the Anbar Sunnis. Sadr went for the “cease fire” on Iranian orders. Remember, Sadr has called for the exit of the “occupiers”. He holds much greater Iraqi support.
Like you state, “he’ll keep his distance from Iran as soon as the fighting ends”, unless the “occupiers” can tie him more closely to Iran than Maliki.
Sadr just consolidated his power, and it appeared that both Maliki and the US could do very little about it.
I wonder how McSame is going to try to spin this.
Dennis - SGMM
Here’s a nice picture (From al-Hayat), that you won’t see in the MSM, of Basra policemen symbolically surrendering their weapons to the Sadrists in Basra. The men were given in exchange an olive branch and a copy of the Koran. The weapons were returned after the policemen swore not to use them against the followers of al-Sadr.
Al-Sadr is able to dictate terms now. His demands are, considering the situation, fairly modest. Rather than plunging all of Iraq into chaos he asks that the attacks on him and his followers be stopped. At the same time, the Sadrist bloc in parliament are pressing for a vote of no confidence in al-Maliki. This is being scotched for the moment by the Kurdish factions and the ISCI whose delegations are staying away from parliament so that there is no quorum.
At the moment, al-Sadr seems to be in favor of settling the leadership of Iraq with the October elections. My guess is that al-Maliki and Bushco will do their best to keep that from happening.
scarshapedstar
I betcha Sadr’s hiding all those WMDs, you know, the leftovers that Saddam didn’t hand over free of charge to Syria.
Dennis - SGMM
That is so idiotic on the face of it, such a complete and obvious fabrication that I expect Bush to reveal that al-Sadr has the WMD’s in a prime time speech by Wednesday at the latest.
Dork
If you really think the US will allow Maliki to lose an election, I want whatever you’re smoking. There’s absolutely no chance Sadr “wins” an election in October, one month before the US elections. They will be the most rigged elections in history, IMO.
zzyzx
As someone who hasn’t been following Sadr as closely as he should, how bad would he be as leader? Are we looking at Taliban II Electric Boogaloo or is he more sane?
DR
Dork: If that happens, the illusion that the “Surge” is working will be forever dispelled. What we saw this week is nothing but a taste of what would happen if the U.S. so obviously tried to push Al-Sadr aside.
So, I certainly hope the guys in Washington have learned a lesson here (*cough* *cough*). But I’m afraid you’re right, and that the close to 1000 Soldiers and uncounted Iraqis who died as a direct result of the so-called “Surge” will have died for absolutely nothing.
nabalzbbfr
I can’t understand this liberal obsession with cheerleading for our enemies in Iraq. It is now clear with today’s news that the events of this week are an unambiguous vindication of our recent strategy in Iraq. The success of the surge paved the way for Maliki to take on Sadr. After a lot of initial blustering and ineffectual resistance by his ragtag Mahdi Army, Mookie realized that Maliki and General Petraeus really meant business and he melted under pressure. You liberals should have also learned this lesson: don’t mess with General Petraeus!
w vincentz
ZZYZX,
Take this with a “grain of salt” due to the source, but you might find this to be helpful in understanding Sadr’s support.
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/361C19D2-2910-45E8-BD3D-8660E6E14465.htm
Note Sadr’s position concernin the Sunnis.
And yes, his government will be a “theocracy”. So much for the chimp’s attempt to institute a democracy based on the American model. Oh well…
Dennis - SGMM
Nguyen Cao Ky
Nguyen Van Loc
Tran Van Huong
Tran Thien Khiem
Nguyen Ba Can
Vu Van Mau
Prime Ministers of the Republic of Vietnam, 1965-1975.
Dennis - SGMM
Al-Maliki issued an ultimatum to the Mehdi army to lay down their arms, then he extended the ultimatum and offered money to them to lay down those arms. So far, they are still in position and they still have their weapons.
How is this a victory? Looks more to me like the flies have captured the flypaper.
lutton
Remember that is was just last week that two former Bush admin foreign service ‘experts’ basically called out al Sadr, in a move that the blog perrspectives (yes, spelled that way) refered to as Premature Iraq Elation
So last week’s skirmish responded to the WSJ column in two ways: It showed that al-Sadr still has the power to fight the government in armed combat. And the authority to order such fighting to commence and terminate.
As I said in another post somewhere, it’s sad that so many people in and from the Bush administration think that skillful diplomacy – waiting patiently on the sidelines for the right time or situation – is akin to losing. They say that not fighting a daily battle of attrition, that not getting his people – both his foot soldiers and civilian followers – killed on a continuing basis led to his ‘fall’ and ‘marginalization.’
I can just picture them with that proverbial big ‘L’ on their foreheads, yelling “LOSER!”
w vincentz
Thanks Nabal. That was the “spin” I was looking for.
“The success of the surge paved the way for Maliki to take on Sadr.”
Do you have any interest in the purchase of a nice bridge in Brooklyn?
jon
Where’s the cheerleading? Dude, I’m not cheerleading anything. I’m sitting in the bleachers bitching about my team being coached by an asshole, cheating, spending all its money on free agents with short contracts, wasting its draft choices, and noticing that the opponent isn’t even playing the same kind of football. The only cheerleader is… well, I don’t want to link to that scary video since we’ve all seen it enough.
Dennis - SGMM
Damned liberal: Bush has provided the best football bats that money can buy.
w vincentz
“premature Iraq elation”…LOL!
Sounds like “premature ejaculation”.
Can we pull out now or should we wait until it gets limp and does it on its own?
Punchy
Comedy gold. He’s now the MUC (pronounced “mook”).
nabalzbbfr
Sadr is the Magical Unity Cleric
You’re confusing him with Jeremiah Wright, which is understandable.
Dennis - SGMM
Nice try. What you want to do is keep your shoulders loose and start your swing so that the bat intersects the ball where it actually is.
4tehlulz
2/10
josephdietrich
This looks like a double win for al-Sadr. Not only has he shown that without American backing Maliki isn’t a military match for JAM, he has also made himself out to be the peacemaker. And while this looks like a bad thing since al-Sadr is the enemy of the moment for the US, this could actually be good. If Maliki accepts the terms, he loses in November and al-Sadr gets into power. The new government of Iraq officially asks US forces to leave, and gives the new Administration a clear out (since we’ve already said we’d leave when asked by the government). We will have left a country on friendly-but-not-too-friendly terms with Iran (which is the best we are going to get from a Shi’ite regime anyway), have installed a new strongman in power that has popular support, and have been able to dodge the bullet of a nasty Shi’ite-on-Shi’ite Iraqi civil war with our guys dragged into it.
But that’s just my own wishful thinking, based on the fact that personally, while it pains me to see the suffering, I just don’t care if the Iraqis all kill each other as long as we aren’t helping them do it. We’ve screwed things up enough, and it’s time for us to stand down and let the Iraqis stand up and screw the rest up themselves.
dbrown
Sadr wants the US out ASAP? Can be replace hillary and run here?
ThatLeftTurnInABQ
Mark my words, the Iranians will regret it if Sadr comes to power and unifies Iraq. Sadr will challenge their credentials as leaders of the Shi’ites, and will compete with them for influence and power over other Shia dominated groups in the region. He is going to play Mao to their Khrushchev, only his oil reserves will be many times larger than theirs.
From the article that w vincentz linked to in the other Basra thread:
To Americans this just sounds like gobbledygook, or a BS excuse for lying low and evading capture. I don’t think so – I think Sadr is playing a long term game and knows that he needs to polish his credentials as a religous leader. He is also laying the groundwork for not having to put up with Sistani if the latter proves inconvenient and tries to get in his way.
Dennis - SGMM
[doffs hat] Well put.
Eural Joiner
And the most messed up thing about all this is that some of my conservative friends have turned against this mess (finally!) – they are spitting mad about Iraq and very angry at US troops remaining there to be killed for no good reason.
And that’s why they are going to vote for McCain in November.
This stupidity will never end.
ThatLeftTurnInABQ
zzyzx,
This piece by Nir Rosen Anatomy of a Civil War is almost 2 years old, but is longer and goes into more detail than most of the other stories I’ve found. For a western journalist Rosen had extremely good access to Al Sadr over an extended period of time. Draw your own conclusions from the story.
nabalzbbfr
This looks like a double win for al-Sadr. Not only has he shown that without American backing Maliki isn’t a military match for JAM, he has also made himself out to be the peacemaker.
This is an excellent example of the treacherous cheerleading I complained about upthread. For some perspective, here is an expert analysis of last week’s fighting:
http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2008/03/mahdi_army_taking_si.php
by someone who knows what he is talking about.
We will have left a country on friendly-but-not-too-friendly terms with Iran
I expect that President Bush, Vice President Cheney and General Petraeus have something else in mind for Sadr’s minders in Teheran this coming October.
capelza
Can someone explain to me, if Sadr is so anti-Iranian, why he has been in Iran for months now? Studying at Qom..(his clerical cred ain’t that high…he mostly inherited it as his father and brothers are dead).
w vincentz
Correct That Left Turn.
Factor in the port of Basra that he now controls, his credibility as a Shia leader with wide support (note, the recent conflict was not just in Basra but six other major cities) and it’s easy to see that the “new” Iraq will be lead by a populist theocrat with huge influence in the global oil market. Do you think Thswi plays to Cheney’s wettest dreams? Me neither.
Tim F.
Treason talk is the surest sign of a desperate wingnut.
So you not only find the idea of an October Surprise credible but you’re rooting for it. I don’t think you have any idea how fringe and absolutely contrary to American values that idea really is. Somewhere DougJ is crying.
ThatLeftTurnInABQ
The Iranians know the roulette wheel is unpredictable, so they have their bets down on both black and red.
Also, remember that the Iranian leadership is hardly a monolith. There is sure to be considerable variance within Iran as to which Iraqi faction is the best bet to back.
Cernig
According to Iraqis, the other parts of the nine -point (count ’em) statement Sadr issued are:
An amnesty for all Sadrists detained, Sadrists keep their weapons, “the withdrawal of the Iraqi and American forces from Basra, stop the raids against the Sadrists, Maliki to return to Baghdad in 48 hour followed by the ministers”
Apparently, the Maliki government has agreed to all this. From a group they’ve described as worse than Al Qaeda and promised not to retreat from defeating utterly.
NOW who does it look like is surrendering?
But so far no mention of most of this in the Western Press.
Regards, C
Tim F.
Thanks, Cernig. I found it strange that every story mentions a nine point list of demands but nobody has list itself.
Rick Moran
This is Sadr asking Maliki to accept that his mission to cripple the Mehdi army has failed. It says that Sadr and not Maliki has the power to control this fight, and early reports seem to be bearing that out.
Jesus lord you’re spinning so fast you’re a blur.
Are you seriously saying that Sadr is letting Maliki off the hook by being so magnanimous? Is this a side of Mookie we haven’t seen before?
I have nothing but contempt for Maliki but your “analysis” is ludicrous. Victors do not offer to retreat.
josephdietrich
nabalzbbfr, when you claim that a simple observation is treacherous cheerleading, you prove that you have both an agenda and no sense. I will only waste one more sentence on you, and that is to call you a fool.
Partisan
———Can someone explain to me, if Sadr is so anti-Iranian, why he has been in Iran for months now? Studying at Qom..(his clerical cred ain’t that high…he mostly inherited it as his father and and brothers are dead).——-
Qom is where you have to study, and where you have to make your “rep” if you want to be a Shia Cleric.
Just like Mecca and Medina for Sunni’s, Rome for Catholic,s, etc.
Dennis - SGMM
Go and read the CIA Factbook for Iran. Take a good close look at the map there.
You don’t know what you’re talking about. The Iranians are not a bunch of stupid WOGs who will bow down before US shock and awe tactics. You’re smoking the same kind of crack that led the neocons to proclaim that we would be greeted as liberators in Iraq.
demimondian
Are you so stupid that you have trouble with wimple English? Yes, that is exactly what he’s saying.
Sadr won — he granted Maliki 48 hours to get out of Basra with (what remains of) his forces. That’s called “withdrawing in defeat”, Rick. And, in Maliki’s case, since he doesn’t have any place safe to withdraw to, it’s called “losing”.
Tim F.
As long as we’re arguing by slogan, losers can’t afford magnanimity.
nabalzbbfr
Cernig once again promulgates the leftist party line. Meanwhile the <sarcasm>Bush Administration party organ</sarcasm> al-Jazeera reports:
Despite the order Iraqi troops will continue military operations against “criminals” in Basra, al-Dabbagh later told the Reuters news agency.
“The operation in Basra will continue and will not stop until it achieves its goals. It is not targeting the Sadrists but criminals,” he said. [i.e. but rather those who fail to heed Sadr’s order to lay down their guns]
Cernig
Rick,
“Victors do not offer to retreat”.
They do if they expect to win big at the ballot box in a couple of months thereby.
Let’s try this – “victors don’t agree to the losers demand that they get out of town within 48 hours”.
Regards, Cernig
capelza
Partisan, thanks for the response, however, he could have studied at Najaf in Iran…it is, along with Qom, considered a center of fiqh. Najaf is also the holy place of the tomb of the Imam Ali (a VERY BIG DEAL in Shia) and the largest cemetery in the world…the Wādī as-Salām. A girl I knew from omline died in London and she was buried there, because it was so holy.
So Qom isn’t the only center of learning for Shia clerics. This is what confuses me. Id Sadr is such a nationalist why not study at Najaf instead of Qom?
demimondian
Al-Sistani is in charge in Najaf, capelza. Al-Sadr’s not entirely enamored of al-Sistani, nor is al-Sistani entirely thrilled with al-Sadr.
capelza
demi…that’s fair enough.
I think that we in the west know so little about what’s really going on in the internal Shia religious and/or political politics…that I personally hesitate to hazard a guess.
Though it is true that while Sistani (a G.A.) is “in charge” of Najaf, he doesn’t have an army behind him to call any bluff that Sadr might have chosen to make. If Sadr had chosen to “study” in Najaf, what could Sistani have done about it really?
b. hussein canuckistani
I can’t tell who should be more humiliated… Maliki or the Surge Supporters.
demimondian
Refused to take him as a student, and accepted the inevitable martyrdom which followed. Think of it — if I wandered into the Vatican City with an army at my back, and told the current head of the College of Cardinals that he was going to teach me theology, what would he do? I would hope that he’d stand in the door, and challenge me to martyr him, and, were our roles reversed, I’d hope that I’d do the same thing.
Worse, from a political standpoint, if al-Sadr had chosen to study in Najaf, it would have locked both of them in a vulnerable spot, which might have allowed someone to kill both of them, leaving a vacuum among Iraq’s Shia. I doubt either of them wanted that — better for Sadr to be elsewhere.
Partisan
As a Sunni Cleric, you have to study and make a rep in three places, Mecca, Medina, and your local seat of Sunni knowledge.
Sayed Al Sadr has studied and continues to study under some Cleric’s in Najaf, he also studies under some Cleric’s in Qom.
Complicating Sayed Al Sadr’s studies are the War in Iraq, his security situation, adversarial relations with the Iranians, Dawa, SCRI, the $1,000,000 contract out in his life by the US Military, the Awakening Movements, his roles as the leader of a political party and movement, his role as leader of a social and economic party and movement.
He wears a lot of different hats and he seems to wear them quite well, resolving many conflicting goals, such as the cleansing of mixed Shia-Sunni Areas, with maintaining a position as an Iraqi Nationalist and building bridges to the Sunni political groups and militias.
capelza
The thing about the Shia clerics…it isn’t an organization like the Vatican. Even the Grand Ayatollahs don’t agree with each other on many things. And yet they still manage to coexist in Qom. It isn’t a monolith like the Vatican. Though a G.A. that pushes too many buttons risks much from the Iranian government and it’s Ayatollah (note, Khamenei is NOT a G.A…and even his Ayatollah status is questioned by some of the G.A.s..but he holds the power in Iran).
Sistani has pretty much withdrawn from the political sphere…and has said as much.
But I agree about Sadr’s security situation. And that he went to Iran because it was safer for him. I think the whole situation is more Byzantine/Persian/ Ottomanesque than the thing seems to our eyes.
Kelvin Phillips
This is what worries me, that the MSM doesn’t get all of the different elements of this story and the public is led to believe one thing while another is happening. Now I know that has been going on since before the war started, but IMHO, I think we’ve (the U.S. forces in Iraq) have been really lucky to avoid a true catastrophe so far. It’s been pointed out that any retreat of U.S. forces will have to go through Southern Iraq, and just who now has at least nominal control of that area?
TenguPhule
Why is that lame unproven meme “Sadr went to Iran” floated by the US mulitary last year being thrown out as ‘Known fact’?
Better trolls please.
Partisan
—-Why is that lame unproven meme “Sadr went to Iran” floated by the US mulitary last year being thrown out as ‘Known fact’?—–
No, the US Military said Sadr fled to Iran and inferred that he would not be coming back.
In reality, he has been back and forth several times for political reasons and to continue his studies.
According to Sadr spokemen, he is in Iran right now, in Qom, but it is unclear if his current visit is political or educational.