…if she wins all of the remaining contests with at least 75% of the vote and 63% of the remaining uncommitted super-delegates.
Be ye afraid!
Calculate your own infinitely small Clinton nomination possibility scenario here.
Reader Interactions
81Comments
Comments are closed.
cleek
if she’s gonna try it, Obama should just spend the next four weeks in Puerto Rico, on vacation, egging her on from his beach chair.
MattF
Umm… some combination of Vogon poetry and an improbability drive. Where’s Douglas Adams, now that we need him?
4tehlulz
Where’s the option to nullify all the black votes?
Dennis - SGMM
Anything spoken aloud by Clinton is admired by Vogon poets – as much for its delivery as for its content.
jake
Or, several parasite universes simultaneously sliding through the same leg of the trousers of time.
ThymeZone
Maybe if she commits to obliterating a few more countries, and myiq0xu and lukasiak and orogeny all start a letter-writing campaign to the Superdelegates. Sure.
Oh, and if those three also donate about $10m to her campaign, which I am sure they can do.
Dennis - SGMM
Do you have any idea of how many insane, spittle-flecked p.luk posts you’ve just unleashed? Cleek’s pie script is going to be working overtime.
wasabi gasp
Lawrence O’Donnell at HuffPost has word about her dropping out by the 15th.
Jen
A little off-topic, but does anyone know why Puerto Rico, which unless I’m very much mistaken, is not a state and cannot vote in the general election, has more delegates than any of the remaining states?
Davebo
Because of rather silly rules devised, in large part, by the candidates.
Original Lee
Rachel Maddow was right last night! She said that Clinton’s speech last night was totally not a concession speech and that her campaign was pushing hard for the new delegate total, and looky what sprang up today.
BTW, she’s calling WV the most important election in history. If she wins by 75%, I’ll have to concede that designation.
Zifnab
Ok, but just bare with me. If she can win 243% of Montana…
Andrew
You get more delegates by agreeing to go later in the process.
ThymeZone
What are the relative populations?
Soylent Green
Here’s a way for Hillary to prevail. Obama’s next TV address will be a video filmed in a cave in Afghanistan. He will have a kaffiya on his head, an AK-47 in his arms, and Zawahiri at his side. Also he will be drinking a latté while simultaneously fucking a small boy, fellating Jeremiah Wright, and shitting on the American flag.
Okay I got nothin’.
ThymeZone
Just an example, PR seems to have a population around 4m, compared to WV 1.8m
Could that explain it?
Rick Taylor
Looks like it’s time for these two youtube videos again:
How Hillary Can Still Win
Hillary Clinton’s Path To Victory!
4tehlulz
I am intrigued by your ideas and would like to subscribe to your newsletter.
Rick Taylor
And remember, what she said during the Newsweek article still holds:
So all those elected and caucus delegates pledged to Obama might change their minds.
Jake
Meanwhile, the comedy over at TalkLeft continues…
Yeah, stop lying!!! How can you forget about Dodd and Kucinich?!?!? Stop lying!!!
Good stuff.
Jen
But I’m comparing it to the other states left to go. They’re pretty late in the process, too. I guess the populations are comparable: 3.7 million in Oregon and 4.2 million in Kentucky, where they have 52 delegates. I got nothin’ against Puerto Rico, I just find it a little odd that they have more say than states that will vote in the general election. If they wanted to be a state, presumably they’d hold a vote on that. It’s been my understanding that they don’t want to be a state.
That said, I’d go with Cleek’s strategy if I were Obama.
Rick Taylor
She could demand revotes in Florida, Michigan, and all states that held their primaries before Wright became a big issue. Voters who might have wanted to vote for her after learning about Wright but were unable to because their primary was too early have been disenfranchised.
Buck
I would still take him over McCain.
TR
I heard they’re going to claim we need to ditch the DNC rules for the original letter of the Constitution, and therefore a black vote will count as three-fifths of a white vote.
Soylent Green
Better yet, she could turn back the clock to the day after Wright became a big issue while demanding revotes in every state on that same day. Also, every vote for her is counted as two votes, just to make it fair that he is outspending her two to one.
crack
something is wrong with that app. I can get both of them over 2025.
Cain
yeah, anybody who can multitask like that gets my vote.
cain
Napoleon
I think what is relevent is the number of people voting in the jurisdiction for Dems. PR likely has a lot more people voting for Dems.
By the way this is part of the reason that HRCs arguement about the popular vote was BS. Even leaving aside the fact some are caucus and some primaries the number of delegates were apportioned based on actual support that had been shown in the past in that state for the Dems. So if, for purpose of argument, a state like Utah had the same population as say RI, RI is likely to get a whole lot more delegates since they have in the past given more support to the Dems, even if by chance in the primary in question Utah happened to have just as many people show up and vote as RI did for their primary.
John S.
Puerto Rico prefers representation without taxation.
Bill Arnold
Clinton is hoping that Obama has violated or will violate the “live boy or dead girl” rule, or some equivalent.
She’s basically the backup candidate now, should the Obama candidacy suddenly collapse. Which is good in a sense. The Republicans don’t have a convincing backup candidate, and the whole Ron Paul thing may continue to play out at their convention.
John S.
Not to go all tautological, but the reason Hillary’s argument about the popular vote is BS is simply because it is BS. It holds no more water than arguing that the person winning the popular vote in the general election becomes president.
That’s just not the way these things are determined.
Wilfred
The Five Stages of ClintonGrief:
Denial: This not fucking happpppppppppening!
Anger: That motherfuckkkkkkkkkkkkker!
Bargaining: If I win every state with 99% of the vote and I don’t step on any cracks the rest of my life then….
Depression: No, I’ll never never run agaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaain.
Acceptance: This not fucking happpppppppppening!
mimi
Welcome to the 3/5ths club.!!!
The black population is growing with each primary.
All you white elitist, latte drinking, prius driving, trust fund babies are now honorary black people. New ID cards will be mailed to you soon so that you can vote in the GE in Indiana.
RH from PA
What if the Dems counted delegates like the Repubs– winner-take-all. Also just like electoral votes? Unless my math is wrong, Obama would be the one being demanded to quit.
DougJ
The “live boy or dead girl” rule is now the “live boy, dead girl, or multiple wetsuit” rule, by the way.
Soylent Green
Using the calculator, I gave Hillary 60% in all remaining primaries and 65% of the superdelegates and Obama still wins.
She is either writing her May 20 concession, or nuking the party. Wish I knew which.
OT, Taylor Marsh today is making highfalutin’ pledges to stop McCain:
Seems a might disingenuous seeing as she has assiduously stirred up her rabble to prefer McCain to Obama. That’s the real bottom line.
Rick Massimo
OK, but is that 75% of the vote in states that matter or states that don’t?
But seriously, folks:
“Suddenly collapse” in what? Angry Negro Riot Flames? I know you’re not personally saying that this will happen, but really. Besides, surely she’s already the backup.
4tehlulz
O RLY?
She’ll vote for McCain by assuring herself that they’ll be a Democratic Congress to stop him from doing too much damage or some other bullshit factor.
ThymeZone
Funny as hell. I just made on minor adjustment for you.
Desmond
Does anyone know where the fuck myiq2xu and p.lukasiak are?
They seem to have just….disappeared.
cleek
emergency 3PM conference call with the HillHive. they’re receiving the new Talking Points for the week.
jake
[Add to list: Things that should not make me laugh but crack me up anyways.]
Michael D.
Don’t those usually start at 3 “A”M? You know, when Bill’s outta the house…
SamFromUtah
Does anyone know where the fuck myiq2xu and p.lukasiak are?
Don’t look a gift horse in the mouth, as grandpappy always said.
Dreggas
No idea where they are but maybe since the mighty comet known as Indiana-blowout-0653 passed by without whisking them off to delegate lead heaven they put on the tennis shoes, sweat suits, and drank some kool-aid.
4tehlulz
Does anyone really care?
SamFromUtah
Does anyone know where the fuck myiq2xu and p.lukasiak are?
Don’t look a gift horse in the mouth, as grandpappy always said.
Soylent Green
In a pissy mood, drinking heavily, whatever. Give ’em a chance to recover from last night’s shellacking. This primary season roundly demonstrates that it ain’t over till it’s over even long after it’s over.
Darkrose
Hey, last night I discovered that I’d vote for a carrot over McCain.
SamFromUtah
This primary season roundly demonstrates that it ain’t over till it’s over even long after it’s over.
Sadly, you’re right. I look forward to a day when stupid, angry Will to Power isn’t what drives our politics, but I’m not staying up nights.
Grand Moff Texan
Does anyone know where the fuck myiq2xu and p.lukasiak are?
They’ve become infinitely small. You can’t see them any more, but they’re there.
.
Fledermaus
Give it a couple of days. They’ll be back demaning that we be nice to them of Obama has no chance of winning. So before they’ll consider voting for him – we first must agree with them that he only won the nomination because he called the clintons racist and and we’re a bunch of elist snobs. Furthermore we must agree that clinton was the only electable canidate. Then, and only then, will they possibly consider voting for Obama – because, you see, it’s all about them, they are the important ones.
demimondian
Fixed that for you.
w vincentz
I’ll be watching for her to do a 3rd party run with Joey Liebermann as her VP.
Hopefully, she’ll take time out from her busy schedule and go duck huntin’ with Deadeye Dick.
“Sorry honey, thought you were a teal.”
cleek
you need to rework your sliders, Clinton says she’s staying in until someone gets 2210 delegates
(thanks, Ugh!)
Wilfred
PLz STp MEE B4 i LeWS Ta DA kNeE=GROWWWWW hOO cANknOt wIN. cAN u Hpl mE oCCupie mY BrANe?
Grand Moff Texan
Wait, I keep hitting the RESET DELEGATES button and nothing’s happening.
.
Tax Analyst
A Sad & Tragic Story – In the course of contorting situations, people and facts their genes were accidently co-mingled, resulting in the creation of a grotesque mutation:
usuq myplik x2
Grand Moff Texan
Clinton says she’s staying in until someone gets 2210 delegates
Will anyone notice?
.
ksmiami
Clinton will stick around until she is foaming at the mouth, furiously waving her sign and shouting “Shame on You, Barack Obama” at his inauguration speech?
4tehlulz
CLINTON/PAUL 2008
Delia
The local NPR station in Eugene this morning had an interview with some old guy in some little burg in Oregon. He’d voted Republican all his life and had registered as a Democrat to vote for Obama and intended to vote for him in November. He said Obama had worked his way up and understood working people.
So suck on that, blue-collar Wellesley girl.
DougJ
Hmmm…does anyone know where my two wetsuits are?
Grumpy Code Monkey
Delegates, shmelegates, it’s all about the money. Big donors have seen the writing on the wall for a while, which is why she’s having to loan herself campaign funds and beg for donations in a victory speech.
Pretty soon the decision is going to be made for her.
wingnuts to iraq
when these numbers realize it’s Hillary’s turn, it will work out.
Dreggas
Oddly enough, Paul says he’d probably support Obama over McCain.
Nathan R
That program bugs me, because it assumes all superdelegates are uncommitted, yet still include them in the candidate totals. Ignoring currently uncommitted superdelegates, Hillary would have to win 80% of all the remaining delegates in order to tie Barack.
Davis X. Machina
Lukasiak’s a distressing sight.
If you know him only from this cycle, and not from his work on AWOL, and the 2000 coup, you missed something…
Quoth the Bard:
O, what a noble mind is here o’erthrown!
…
Now see that noble and most sovereign reason,
Like sweet bells jangled, out of tune and harsh;
That unmatch’d form and feature of blown youth
Blasted with ecstasy: O, woe is me,
To have seen what I have seen, see what I see!
Xenos
Doesn’t scan, but still an improvement over the original version by Chicago.
From the top:
As I went walking down the street one day,
(be bum bum bum bum…)
wasabi gasp
Does anyone know where the fuck myiq2xu and p.lukasiak are?
Consoling sad half-in-the-bag needy white girls who can’t stop saying “Yes we will.”
Brachiator
Your math is not wrong. It is just theoretical.
We don’t live in an alternate universe in which Hillary Clinton, or anyone else, gets to re-write the rules for the Democratic Party nomination based on her own needs and desires.
Out helping Clinton move the goalposts?
Or probably waiting to get the new metric spelling out how Hillary can win even though she really can’t.
merrinc
I heard something similar yesterday. Except it was from an older lady who was making GOTV calls at our Obama volunteer office in a little burg in NC. She wandered in off the street and asked how she could help. Three hours later, she was still making calls.
oh really
No doubt, HRC can win.
She’s just waiting for the arrival of the Swiftboat with Obama’s name on it. Then, she’ll accept the nomination as the nation’s savior.
Calouste
In which case Obama, being someone that looks at the reality and then works out a plan (unlike Hillary Clinton and George W. Bush who listen to some deranged advisors providing their own alternative version of reality and what is going to follow, and then say that “noone could have foreseen that” when reality does bite them in the arse), would have campaigned differently.
heaven
if hillary should lose the nomination, if you were in the shoes of obama, should she be looked upon as a v.p.?
that is a ridiculous question. why would i want a poisonous snake in my garden would be the better question to ask yourself if you were obama or in his shoes. if the table were turned i’d take obama.
then, why would we as americans want a dysfunctional family in the white house? 3a.m., yeah you’ll be up waiting on billy bad ass to bring it in. she stayed with bill to pursue her political interests,an ordinary womean with no such agenda would’ve stayed. she wins in states were the racism is as evident as their court systems; where the divorce rate is so high folk move there to isolate and regurgitate the hate, where else? nowhere. do i need those statistics to state this, nah listen to the debates
she said obama was attacking her in pa. after she started dropping her poorly advised slam campaign ads which depict none other than her ability to relate to this racist state.
but these guys saw fit to vote for her racism exists whether you racist newscasters chose to air the reality or not. why else is there this continued democratic bull? if obama were white (which he really should be considered, distancing himself from truth he grew accustom to witnessing everyday in his own household) this chicanery would be over bill would’ve suggested her pull out and do a monica to secure herself a vice presidency.
but we americans sure are gullible. we don’t believe in the constitution any more like we say we do or this corporate conglumeration crap would not exist. bush would be impeached and possibly jailed and the war in iraq over oil and beliefs would not be. read the constitution then extend it to what it really extends to: humanity. unalienable rights that have become incorporated into working class jargon. legislators pass laws daily that violate the constitution in favor of the working class and politicians, but the low class run to vote another ursurper of justice into office. the presidents of old were common folk whose goals were to preserve the rights of the people, where do these guys really fit in amongst them: beneath thy feet. we fought of france england britian and a host of others to get away from unjust taxation but we 20th and 21st century americans are dupped by the word most powerful country. we allow the politicians to represent us common folk because we know no better for if we did i’d be president just by allowing you to read these thoughts.
oh had obama been black he would have been offended that you would ask him to ostracise another brother behind “behind closed door” tactics. he would have said it was a horrible truth that we need to iradicate just as you newscasters should be doing instead of propagating it.
it’s wrong to believe that you or your race is more dominant than another’s because your greed produces colossal mayhemic thoughts to flow through your heads. greed invented money and every other unfruitful thing to exist or their would be no dispute over who is getting foreclosed or whatever. and i wouldn’t need you to tell me how to take care of what i bought or have
initially america was a place where the different christian disclaimers were sent as well as the criminal elements of the evicting country. people got together and said we can have or own faith and worship and no one could tell them any different. had muslims also been on those boats there would have been a problem because the way of islam is peace the way of christianity is violence so…
i’m not wrong for these statements so don’t violate my rights city militia men or you fed boys. people need to wakeup and abide by the constitution in regards to all aspects of the terms to extend to all men then we’ll stop minding other people’s businesses and keep our noses where they’re supposed to be then we’ll move on as a country because the other countries that also believe this will be obliging. and if they starving they have been starving- send them some seeds and fertilizer they have water give them some strings and hooks, there are starving folk in america that you hardly notice let alone the homeless. do they send us money when we’re hit by tornado(other countries)? not the ones you’re trying to give away this country’s food supply that can be passed out amongst the have nots.
and we give orientals tax breaks and stuff, couldn’t that be cut from them and extended to the blacks since they did actually build this country with our help and supervision? hell as deep as we’re in the pockets of china they need to start paying what they owe. couldn’t do that the whites and the chinese working elitists are 007-ing and bout to iradicate the other races or this wouldn’t be happening and blacks would be as american as the foreignors who brought them here…..!!!!
Fledermaus
The real problem is that numbers are suffering from Hillary Derangement Syndrome – that and they’re sexist too! Plus, I saw the number 42 hanging out with Rev. Wright last week. Having such anti-american numbers associated with Obama can only hurt him in the general election. Why do numbers hate America?
oh really
Yeah, and what if the Democrats were Republicans?
oh really
Yeah, and what if the Democrats were Republicans?
And what if Democrats ignored all the caucuses?
And what if Democrats ignored all the states that don’t really count because HRC didn’t win them?
And what if pigs could fly?
And what if George W. Bush had a brain?
oh really
Is Monica Lewinsky a superdelegate?
Anita Ramirez
Acutally Washington is dreadfully afraid of Hillary! This campaign has showed Washington and the media at its worst and how big of an influence the media has on the outcomes of campaigns. I am an avid Hillary Clinton supporter and I pray I get to cast my vote for the Next President Hillary Rodham Clinton!
Media, enough is enough, ya’ll have whipped her, belittled her, and to date continue crying she will never win. What does that say to us females! Only that its still a man’s world!
Land99
I am puzzled why so many Obama supporters are willing to back Hillary if she won the nomination, but Clinton supporters would not. Why are the Obama supporters more willing to live up to a loss in their chance to win, but the Clinton supporters can’t. They threaten to vote for McCain and he votes down issues like equal pay, abortion rights for women, wants to continue a war in Iraq, does not support a unversal health care of any kind, and still want to provide everyone the same tax break to include the wealthy. Does not want to increase the G.I. Bill for the American soilder, but doesn’t mind sending in more troops to die for a Bush sanctioned war. How does this make any sense to any of you people. I would have voted for Clinton in the November election, and I am an Obama supporter. I rather of had Clinton ending the war in Iraq, and ending the scale leaning to the wealthier people in the country.Equaling the pay scale for all to include women, allowing people to have freedom of choice in abortion, helping the soilders by voting to increase to G.I. bill.Giving health care to more Americans and doing more for the less fortunate people in our country than John McCain. I know that both Obama and Clinton support these issues and these are the issues we should vote for in November not who said this and who said that. Rev, J. Right, Snipper Fire it’s all news media spin that helps get people to watchnews and sell subscriptions. This is why news media cover stupid issues like B. Spears did this and P. Hilton did that because people feed on the drama and not the issues. I don’t think Obama is a messiah or Hillary is a power hungry b****. I think there both two qualified people who get spun up in the media to draw people out. Why do you think Jerry Springer show got so popular because people love drama. Vote for the issues not who is more popular, and let go of any anger people feel towards who is the winning canidate. The truth is both canidates said things against the other, and both parties have spun up critism about the other canidate. I hear as the same amount of negativity coming from the Clinton side, but her supporters say they won’t support Obama because of how they were so negative. The Obama people say the same thing. Why? It is what people do in campaigns to is try to point at the other person. I hope every democrat in the fall can look past thsi and vote democrat, and not get caught up in having upset feelings influence their vote.