Rube Goldberg*, eat your heart out, but I think this commenter is right on the new Clinton strategery:
Bill Clinton revealed their plan today:
(1) build up massive popular vote margins in WV, KY, and PR offset by only marginal popular vote losses in OR, MT, and SD
(2) get the DNC to seat MI and FL delegations based on the January primaries with Obama getting 0 popular votes for Michigan
(3) convince superdelegates that giving the nomination to the leader in pledged delegates rather than the leader in the popular votes (using their calculations) would be a repeat of the 2000 Bush-Gore from which the Democratic Party would never recover.
That’s their plan. They’ve got their netroots minions talking it up.
That would explain why the Clinton campaign spent months talking about seating the Michigan delegates and then immediately rejected the plan crafted and offered by Clinton supporters in Michigan, and it would also explain the popular vote rhetoric as of late. I am not sure how they are going to pretend that an election where half the candidates were not on the ballot constitutes the “will of the people,” but I am sure the Clintons and their supporters are up to the challenge.
Rather than take the time to ramp down her supporters and exit gracefully after certain big wins in WV and KY, the Clintons are instead whipping them into a lather. Expect healthy continued doses of the Southern Strategy throughout WV and KY, repeated casual “the black guy can’t win” remarks, and by now it is clear that her “hard-working white voter” comment of the other day was no accident.
Yay, team. President McCain has such a nice ring to it.
And one last thing- every last damned one of you who chastised Andrew Sullivan over the past 6 months for Clinton Derangement Syndrome, myself included, owe him an apology. As Tim noted last night via IM, he was as right about Clinton as Andrew and I were wrong about Iraq.
*** Update ***
And the other thing I think is amusing is Hillary’s belief that if this bizarre scheme works, she is just going to be able to magically sew the party back together and the African-American vote will be hers in the fall by a solid margin. It will not.
* By the way, I should probably credit whoever I saw use the Rube Goldberg reference the other day in regards to the Clinton camp, but I don’t remember who it was.
I see the Clintons got their Acme Election Kit. I can hardly wait for the bit where they go rocketing off the cliff and hold up the sign that reads “Yikes!”
Or perhaps “MUP! MUP!”
This story from the L A Times suggests that Mr. Cole’s home state of West Virginia may prove to be Obama’s Achilles’ heel.
This is a plan so cunning it was thought up by a fox who is professor of cunning at Oxford University.
Even were the Clintons able to pull it off, it would mean a convention fight. I don’t care if she’s more electable than FDR and Reagan combined. Any nominee coming out of that, resulting in a bitter divided party, with John McCain having a free ride until then, would lose.
This breakdown is completely right. And the pivot on Michigan is going to be something like this: Don’t disenfranchise voters! Don’t disenfranchise voters!
And if the results are accepted, the argument becomes: (Shrug) Hey, I’m just following what the Secretary of Michigan said are the results. Sorry, not my fault Obama wasn’t on the ballot. Now anoint me empress of the party, peasants!
She’s a disgusting joke.
If it weren’t for Obama, all those white men in West Virginia were totally going to vote for the Democratic candidate in November!
Dug Jay- Neither Hillary nor Obama is going to win WV in the fall.
That’s what Rush kept saying all week.
Dennis - SGMM
The strategy seems to be; ignore the rules, forget the formal agreements we signed vis-a-vis Michigan and Florida, and now everything that we’ve said in the past is no longer operative.
Does anyone think that she wouldn’t act the same way in office if she was to be elected? There’s a pattern here. She’d come up with reasons why UHC couldn’t be enacted, how the situation in Iraq precludes our withdrawal, why the Bush tax cuts can’t be repealed and how it’s necessary to bomb Iran. Clinton is the alternative path to a third Bush term.
I am just completely disgusted with her now.
And no, AAs will not fall in line. They will stay home and somebody needs to explain that to the nations first black president.
This is exactly why all the talk of making Clinton the VP candidate, Senate Majority Leader, etc. makes me want to scream. She should be ostracized and marginalized along with her soulmate Traitor Joe Lieberman.
Hillary: “We must not disenfranchise Michigan! Michigan must be heard! Don’t ignore Michigan!”
Michigan Democratic Party: “Thanks, Hillary. We came up with a plan to seat our delegates the way we want to.”
Hillary: “I don’t like your plan. It has to go.”
By the way, for non-Michiganians, the Joel Ferguson mentioned in that article: ass. hole.
I knew she couldn’t give up. That fat lady about to sing was merely an Eddie Murphy fat suit with Hillary inside laughing her head off evilly.
that woman cannot quit, cannot understand losing to Obama, cannot conceive of the concept and will fight until she is dragged off the stage by the S-D’s or WV somehow actually understand her game and tell her to Frak off ( But WV wont )
The whole thing is disgusting, and we Brits were really hoping to see the ‘old’ america start to emerge from this mess, the respected, powerful, Leading nation. Not this horrible mess you are leading the West with now.
Why is this? I remember in 2004, there was a serious discussion about whether Kerry could get this state. It was called a longshot, but certainly not pure red. Why, with all the mining bullshit Bush has overseen, and all the economic crap he’s brought, has this state gotten redder?
J. Michael Neal
I sent the following e-mail to both Harry Reid and my own Senator:
I am writing you to ask that you do what you can to bring the Democratic primary process to an end. It has reached the point that, if Sen. Clinton either can not, or will not, stop trying to destroy the obvious nominee of the party, it is time to tell her that she will lose her seniority at committee assignments within the caucus. If she is unwilling to respect the party, then the party should withhold its respect for her.
You left out steps 4(?) and 5(Profit!). I think step 4 has something to do with paying off about $12 million in debt.
I sent this email to my senator:
Sometimes you have to euthanize the horse.
I disagree the process needs to end. I think people should be allowed to vote in every state. What I think needs to stop is that the Clinton campaign needs to be forcibly and definitively told they are simply not allowed to change the metrics that determine how this nomination is won. It is not popular vote. It will not be determined by Michigan and Florida. Period.
If they can tell her to stop the dogwhistle bullshit, that would be a positive plus. But no steps need to be taken to end the process, as there is a definitive end point- when the voting is done. What needs to be done is that the integrity of the process can not be perverted.
They don’t have to. They’re deluded; all they have to do is convince themselves. Look in the Talk Left echo chamber to see how it works; it makes complete sense to them, anyone who argues otherwise is treated aggressively and condescendingly, and somehow it convinces them they think it will convince the super-delegates. Look at myiq for an example. When the time comes, the super-delegates will see that Obama is Dukakis-Mondale all rolled into one and come out for Hillary; because it’s obvious to him it must be obvious to everyone. That’s the way delusion works. They’re not going to succeed, but they could create a lot of damage on the way out.
Suddenly bring in race after North Carolina and before West Virginia? And other Clinton surrogates bringing it up too? Nope, that’s not a coincidence.
Starting from a position of supporting and admiring her, this whole campaign has been a series of gradually escalating terrifying revelations. Oh my God, that’s what she’s up to. Oh my God, that’s what she’s up to! Oh my God, that’s what she’s up to!!! It keeps turning out to be even worse than I thought.
I’ve finally come to a point I never thought I’d come to. She’s not going to succeed; she’s not going to be the nominee. But if in some alternate universe the super-delegates did put her over the top, I couldn’t pull the lever for her in November. It turns out I do have a limit; if the party was craven enough to reward race baiting to pump her popular vote and lying to overturn the result of the nominating process, that would be more than I would be willing to stomach.
Again, she’s deluded. Hang around Talk Left, and one can see how it works.
People should be pushing back much, much harder on the fact that the Clinton ‘popular vote’ math doesn’t include caucus states. Take my home state of Washington, which caucused. They don’t try to do any projections or guesses on the popular vote, they just ignore it. Any claim that any popular vote math represents the ‘will of the voters’ is complete bullshit without taking into account the (often very large) caucus states. Nobody is mentioning this and it’s driving me insane.
i’d write my senators, too, except one of them is Menendez, who’s a big Clinton guy, and kind of a clown on top of that.
although i guess if i threaten not to vote for him next time if he goes along with Hillary’s crazy scheme, that might make him pay attention.
i can dream, can’t i?
Much to my continuing amazement this entire train wreck is happening very slowly before my eyes. The depth of stupidity in the american electorate is stunning. Yes I’m sipping my latte as I write that from Portland, Oregon and you know what, this is a goddammed good latte and the biscotti kicks ass and your shit coffee down at the diner sucks ass, SUCKAS! But Clinton and the republicans do it because well you know it works. My father a 68 old who has voted dem his whole life, was a union lineman and is pretty sharp, sends me all the e-mail BS calling Obama a muslim, an america hater, etc and wonders why this doesn’t “cause me concern”. Hey I try all the time with him. Thing is it doesn’t work very well. Obama is black, in case you didn’t know. Now my dad isn’t “prejudiced” per se, he just holds the old time quiet racism.
Yeah, she has all the old-school party machine votes, particularly the ones with troubling and often problematic pasts. See also, Murtha, John.
This really is the death throes of the status quo party brokers and machinery, and it is ugly.
Dennis - SGMM
Clinton to supers; “Nice little party ya’ got there. It’d be a shame if anything happened to it.”
I just went over to TalkLeft for the first time. There’s some interesting information being handed out there. For instance, Nancy Pelosi is backing a plan to give some Michigan delegates to Obama because she doesn’t want to have a woman president. Also, anyone who thinks racism is playing a part in the W Virginia primary is delusional.
I’ll try posting a comment there. My god, those people are oversensitive. I’ve never seen so many warnings about trolling, threats of banning and deletion, etc.
Punchy, because coal prices have stayed up keeping the economy out of it for WV. We really don’t feel hard economic hardship as much as other states because we have a monopolistic economy – coal’s either boom or bust and nothing else here really matters.
Add to that the successful campaign by Republicans, led by Charleton “His Fingerd Are Cold And Dead Now” Heston, convincing gun owners that Democrats were going to confiscate their firearms and use them to force them to marry a queer.
Of course xenophobia is alive and well and the Mooooslims need to be taken care of no matter what and ain’t no Democrat going to do it.
See how that works?
They can’t tell her to stop. There’s a process, the rules committee is meeting May 31, and that’s when it will be decided. Even as the Clinton campaign is doing their best to flout the rules and the process, and DNC is adhering to them, which is the right thing to do, even though it’ frustrating.
Yup. And they’re not going down without a fight.
What’s your handle there? I’m always interested to see how Obama supporters fare there. I’m RickTaylor, but I haven’t posted in a while.
I remember someone stating in one of my classes a decade and a half ago that the West Virginia economy is odd- when the rest of the nation is in a recession, we have not caught up to it yet. As the rest of the nation is edging into good times, WV nose dives into recession.
I have no idea if that is true, but I do remember someone saying it. I think part of it may be true in the sense that it does not matter how good things are going in the rest of the country, a shitload of people are poor in WV. Add to the number of elderly in the state, and we always seem to have a depressed economy.
After the storms trashed Australian and Chinese coal mines in February, coal prices went through the roof. Over $200 a ton for met coal on the spot market…over $100 a ton for steam coal.
That’s HUGE!! Makes voting Republican that much easier.
Good riddance, although given how resourceful they have had to have been to even get into such a position, it surprises me that they don’t think do ditch their horse for the new one and hope they can survive that way. Even Hulk Hogan had the good sense to form the nWo when his Hulkamania schtick was getting boo’ed.
This is not a new strategy. It has been the strategy since shortly after Wisconsin.
heck, i don’t think Andrew Sullivan hates Hillary ENOUGH, considering her behavior during this campaign.
i f**king HATE the “____________ Derangement Syndrome” short hand used by anyone to defend someone indefensible and attack the messenger. gee, you jews, you really have Hitler Derangement Syndrome! you blacks really have Klan Derangement Syndrome!
oh, btw, this is on Sullivan today:
Check this and this out.
Times are definitely booming for the coal industry making it easier for people to be xenophobic racists. Not all of them are, of course, but there’s enough.
Aw, shucks, John. Thanks.
Where are you from sideareal? I’m in Skagit County.
I think the Michigan Democratic Party may have finally realized that it has (with Florida) created a monster that it cannot control and that has no concern for its (MDP’s) well-being.
It would be nice if a blogger or journalist (unlikely) would do a comprehensive chronology of the Clinton campaign’s positions on the MI/FL issue. More than the sweeping reversal from last fall to now, there were incremental changes that I recall vaguely. Something along the lines that early after those primaries were held, Clinton adamantly opposed any proposal that would have resulted in a revote. As the deadlines for setting possible revotes approached, the Clinton campaign changed tack and put out proposals that were so biased and/or expensive that Obama (and even the state parties) couldn’t reasonably agree. Then, once the deadlines past and revotes were no longer possible in any form, the Clinton campaign began to hit the disenfranchisement issue straight on, suggesting (I believe) that she would have been happy with a revote but Obama wouldn’t agree.
So that’s one wish. Another is that registered Democrats in MI and FL (and maybe now even the party in MI) would be more vocal in the press about disenfranchisement of Obama voters under the Clinton plan. I don’t see that this has gotten any coverage.
Why do you keep saying that? I don’t for one minute think West Virginianns are all xenophobic racists, but I sure do think that West Vriginians like to vote for people who are known quantities and who we are familiar with.
The Clinton brand alone is enough to give her a huge edge in the primary. Hell, the Bush name helped out George Bush in 2000. People looked at his dad, said to himself “He is from good people,” and it made it easier for the state to go Republican. If I remember correctly, didn’t his mother campaign here pretty extensively in 2000?
Not to mention the Gore position on coal and the gun issue.
Why don’t you do it? Write it in word, and then I can give you a user name for you to post it.
The Grand Panjandrum
OT: John, I know you thought you might use Balloon Juice to raise funds for various charitable causes each month. Well I have a suggestion for the GE period. What if Balloon Juice committed to raising funds to sponsor an Obama Organizing Fellowship. These are unpaid positions (without stipends for food and housing) that require a minimum commitment of 30 hours a week.
If you are interested in this idea I am more than willing to put together a budget and contact the campaign to get more information.
Worse, the Clintonites try to make hay of the Washington beauty contest primary — which many voters (like me, for instance) actively boycott, precisely because it means nothing at all. Yes, Hillary, your cadidate did do better in the vote that didn’t count than she did in the vote which did. Um…so what?
Bob In Pacifica
Notorious P.A.T. & Rick Taylor. Be careful. I was banned there for bad thoughts. Just scroll through the titles for the articles. All bad Obama all the time.
I’ve worked on strip mines in the last few years and I know these people, John. No offense. Most of them would do anyhing in the world for Barack Obama if he was their neighbor or stranded with vehicle problems, etc… But they are just not ready to vote for a black man with that name when we’re “At War With Terror”.
The crap in the LA Times article linked above is pretty prevalent here.
Here’s that link I boogered. It explains why coal prices are so high.
Bob In Pacifica:
Oh yes, I know what it’s like. I was lectured and banned from a thread by BTD for suggesting that in removing his name from the Michigan ballot Obama was making at least a reasonable interpretation of what it meant not to “participate” in the primary (just that one thread; I’ve posted since then). What was your handle there?
they’re very protective of the stable resonance they’ve created there – all of them reciting the Catechisms Of Clinton in perfect harmony, day after day. they’re justly afraid that any little bit of dissonance will set up a catastrophic positive feedback loop, and send the whole thing crashing into the sea – like the Tacoma Narrows Bridge, but dumber.
I agree 100% with that.
I hope you are wrong about that.
I think we should all thank Rush L. for inspiring this implosion, but affirmative action buffoons like Herbert at the NYT get honorable mention. After hearing Obambi’s latest exhalation on the situation in Beirut, we’d better let the grown-up win in November.
Hail to Chief Johnny Mac!
Bob In Pacifica
I don’t believe Clinton is out of her mind. However, since Obama put her on the ropes with those eleven straight wins the Clinton campaign has behaved like a fifth column within the Democratic Party.
Her opposition research (Robert Parry has an article about how the Wright, Ayers stories et al were all ready to go back in December) has pretty much been of the divisive, racist kind instead of sticking with attacking Obama as a person and/or politician.
Her continued praise of McCain as qualified for “Commander-in-Chief” was downright bizarre. I can’t recall this kind fawning over an opposition candidate ever. That wouldn’t be good for Dems even if Clinton was the presumptive candidate. She even aligned with him on the gas tax thing and gave cover for Bush and McCain with the “let’s bomb Iran” thingie. She’s running like a Republican with a magical destiny vagina.
In other words, Clinton has for months been running as a Republican, trying to destroy Obama’s candidacy, not to win. I understand the theory behind the 2012 stategy, but she’ll be 64 by then and her unfavorables in the Democratic Party will be approaching Bush-like proportions. I think she’s just doing the corporatists’ dirty work, just like Bill did.
I guess we could always obliterate them. That seems to be popular.
I wish I was, man…I wish I was.
No offense, but that’s a pretty transparent way saying “white people without Muslim-sounding names”
No one is saying they’re all racists, but there’s a ton of people in KY, WV, TN, etc. that simply wont support A Colored Boy(TM)
I’m Notorious P A T there. I tried to make a comment, but so far it hasn’t moved out of “moderation”, and I don’t expect it to any time soon )
I just find it funny that the TalkLeft crowd (from what I can tell) absolutely HATE for people to suggest that Hillary’s humungous advantage with WV’s white voters has anything to do with race. Apparently there are NO racists in West Virginia whatsoever. Now, I’m not saying that all WVirginians are racists, or that racists only live in the South. But come on!
These hardcore pro-Hillary websites are fascinating. They really believe that many, many people who would never vote for a black man can’t wait to vote for Hillary Clinton instead of John McCain. It’s almost like the 90s never happened.
Also, Barack Obama is a racist. And not really black. He should run for office in Nigeria, not America. And he DID flip Hillary the bird!!! And Markos at DailyKos is worse than Rush Limbaugh.
Barack Obama, you racist!
No, it really isn’t. You have no idea how many people are in the state house and Senate who are, in effect, legacies. Hell, Alan Mollohan is the son of Robert Mollohan. There are a number of “familiar” names in the state every where you go- Raese, Manchin, Oliverio’s up where I live, and so on. Local races are family affairs for decades.
Ask Bobzim. He knows what I am saying. I think people truly do not understand how small WV is. Hell, my city, Morgantown, is the biggest city in the state on WVU game day.
It’s as though the Clintons took the worst accusations, slurs, and talking points against them from the 1990s and decided to build a presidential campaign on them.
Iran’s population is approximately 70 million. I’m going to go out on a limb and suggest that roughly half that number are women. And yet the “women’s candidate” would turn those 35 million women and girls to ash for crimes committed by their government.
But don’t call her out on that! That makes you a misogynist.
Just a correction: Clinton dropping out doesn’t stop the process or disallow people from voting.
It simply changes the nature of their choices.
Yeah, like John Kerry, Ted Kennedy, Tom Daschle, Donna Brazile-Wax, Nancy Pelosi, George McGovern . . . oh, wait!
If Obama’s win is assured, why are Obama supporters calling up WV Democrats and telling them they don’t need to bother voting?:
Not only was the WA primary a beauty contest, 1000s of ballots in my county alone were discarded because people didn’t check the party loyalty box. But people weren’t warned that their ballot would be invalidated. So we don’t even know what the real results were in the beauty contest.
I was afraid you might say that. I’ll see what I can come up with.
I don’t know where they think that PR is strongly pro-Clinton, and Obama is very likely to win big in OR.
Like that’s ever going to work. Not only were half the candidates not listed in MI’s voting, but they’re already pissed off at Hillary. Polls from MI show that in a race between her and McCain, they’re more likely to vote McCain… and this is a state that has the most pro-Democratic city (Detroit) in the US.
Nice pretzel-logic and canyon-jumping leaps of logic.
Oh, bullshit. I have called all over the state, and we have not said anything of the sort. We have done nothing but get out the vote, and even when someone says they are voting solidly for Clinton, I have asked to see if there was anything we could do to help get them to the polls when they are elderly.
I am so fucking sick and tired of you Clintonistas. Just go away already.
Just Some Fuckhead
The topography isn’t generally conducive to the sort of people-intensive colonization you see in the big metropolitan areas.
Now, on the other hand, if you were to get a giant hammer and beat the state flat, well.. that would fix our little problem with the primary at least.
Not to mention that McCain is the guy who said that (then teen-aged) Chelsea Clinton is so ugly because Janet Reno is her father. Now, I know politics isn’t beanbag; and I’m a non-parent who often finds kids more annoying than adorable. But I find it hard to fathom a person could fawn over anybody who took a shot like that at their kid.
And for the record, here is how a call goes-
You introduce yourself, tell them you ar calling from Obama, make sure you are talking to the right person, and then talk about how we are excited about the last win in NC and the close finish in Indiana. Then you ask them if you could inquire how they intend to vote on Tuesday.
If they are definitively not voting in the Democratic primary, a McCain supporter, or dead, you move on to the next call. There are a lot of Democrats who are only Democrats to vote in a primary that matters and are going to vote McCain.
If they say solidly Clinton, you ask if there is anyway we could earn their support, and go from there.
If they are undecided, you ask how we can earn their support and if there are any issues they care to discuss.
If they are Obama supporters, you thank them for their support and ask if they need any help getting to the polls.
For all people you remind them they can vote early and where. For elderly, regardless who they support, I ask if they need help getting to the polls.
No one anywhere asks for money. That is just bullshit. There is no effort to suppress the vote.
I have a large number of links you might find helpful. I’m trying to figure out how to get them to you without swarming this board.
In regard to size, W VA pop 1.8M, 75/sq mi; OR 3.7M, 35.6/sq mi. Even more striking in OR is that 4/5 of pop is E of the Cascade mountains. The Congressional District I live in (OR-2) is larger than any state E of the Mississippi River.(5 CDs) OR2 is so spread out that family political dynasties are pretty much prohibited.
Chuck Butcher, don’t you mean W of the Cascades?
Rick Taylor, you could send me links to mvhs87[at]gmail[dot]com. That’s my junk mail address, but I’ll check it if I know something might be coming.
I put a bunch of links here. I’m afraid they’re uncategorized, but hope you’ll find some helpful.
People were speculating whether Hillary supporters would come around to Obama after the right wing attacks on Michelle started. So far it doesn’t look good. From a rare sane Hillary-supporting poster there, posting on a thread concerning Michelle’s opposition to a unity ticket:
BTD suspended her for this comment.
I’m an idjit, yes W of the Cascades.
Sent! I hope you find some of it helpful.
this is why I won’t stand down one inch until she drops out. Only then will it truly be over.
Meanwhile… some good news.
Obama picks up even more superdelegates
A disturbing scenario: Hillary continues Sherman’s March to the convention, loses the final battle as expected, leaves a lot of blood on the floor. Her followers declare the whole thing illegitimate and stay home from the general in droves. McCain takes office. In 2012, Hill runs again (motto: “I told you so”), drawing on the same base. Obama says no thanks, as well as not having any traction, having lost. But 2008’s Obama supporters vow, on their mother’s graves, anyone but Hillary, and settle in behind another candidate. Hillary dukes it out with the other candidate, goes negative, plays the same games, keeps her deluded fans in thrall, and hangs in no matter what the delegate count. June comes, superdels give the other candidate the nomination, Hillary’s army marches on to the convention. McCain or his veep wins the general, rinse, repeat.
Speaking as someone who originally supported Hillary but has since flipped completely to Obama (BTW just read his book “Dreams from My Father” this past week and would highly recommend it), I have a slightly different take:
Yes, the “logic” coming out of the Clinton camp is just twisted right now, but in order to get people to continue to donate even enough to get her through the final primaries on June 3 she has to have some explanation as to how she can win the nomination no matter how stupid or illogical it may seem. The way I see it (I hope I’m right), this is just the last desperate gasp to maintain the funding – she’s driven to this because as anyone with 1/2 a brain can see, there’s no way she can get the nomination but she just has to have some sort of “rationale” when asked. If she responds to the “how do you get the nomination” question with an “I don’t know” or a blank stare, her funding dries up in about 15 minutes and she knows it.
That’s what I’ve been saying for some time now, that it’s all about the money and rest is smoke and mirrors. But there’s something very scary brewing in her campaign’s newfound strategy of getting her people to think she has been cheated, which could seriously depress turnout in November.
The first election I was old enough to be aware of was Kennedy/Nixon. I’ve never seen a cliffhanger like this one. Will Hillary drop out on schedule and join forces, or has she lost her mind and on a path to destroy the party’s chances? Is she a shrewd politician or as batty as her base? There are solid arguments being made on behalf of both interpretations. I wouldn’t bet on either.
There has been a slow but steady trickle of super delegates toward Obama after Indiana and North Carolina. Some even that have supported Hillary have switched. If the count at Daily Kos is accurate, the gap is now 164.5 delegates. One of the reasons there has not been a deluge, despite people like Rahm all but saying it is over, is for there not to be a perception that she is being forced out of the race. What to watch for this week, to see if there are crazy machinations going on, is if the trickle of superdelegates continues.
Aww, aren’t you sweet?
Hillary Clinton’s political career is effectively over unless she can become some kind of senatorial powerhouse. Her run for the White House was built on two fantasies, the first, that a “strong, powerful woman” can do any job, and the second, that as the wife of a former president, she had magically absorbed his accomplishments and political acumen.
Her dreary, divisive campaign has demonstrated that on her own, Hillary Clinton does not have much to offer. If the Democrats lose in 2008, she will become first a pariah and then “Hillary Who?” She is clearly deluded if she thinks that she will be able to ride to the rescue in 2012 after almost single-handedly fracturing the party in 2008.
That her followers stay home in droves is not the prospect that should most frighten the Democrats. Senator Clinton appears to have as much contempt for Obama’s young voters as she does for black voters. The conventional wisdom is that young and younger people are fickle and may not show up for the general election. Added to this are some of Bill Clinton’s nuttier declarations that younger voters are kinda stupid.
And consider this: there are millions of young women, Obama supporters, who want to see a woman president, but who have never seen Senator Clinton as the answer to their prayers or the repository of all their dreams. They are far more likely to look to the upcoming generation of women political leaders for leadership than to a 2012 Hillary Clinton, who will be seen as a re-tread.
If Obama’s supporters stay away in droves, the ones who have come out to vote, and who have donated millions to his campaign, the Democratic Party has no future.
I called this shit months ago.
Actually, I recall demimondian and myiq (while he was still pretending to be reasonable) jumping on my ass for predicting Clinton’s behavior, but in all fairness I think many are frankly gobsmacked by the behavior they are exhibiting.
Politics is a nasty business.
Then we can say; “Piss off, tossers”, and stay home in droves – fair play being a jewel you want to eat cold.
Ah, the Great Gizoogle!
Don’t worry Hillary, myiq could never stop loving you.
Actually, at that point I think I would just hang up. Waste of time. Someone undecided at this point would probably also be undecided on election day whether they should vote or not regardless of any candidate. Can’t stand those people. You could probably ask the question “Nuclear annihilation of the planet, a good thing or a bad thing?” and likely get a 6% undecided figure.
Yeah, you called that shit, John S.
Just Some Fuckhead
HRC:Can’t stop me now, hear what I say
I guess it would be a sign o’ the times to say Sullivan was right for all the wrong reasons therefore those of us that were wrong were actually right despite all of the wrongness … or something. Instead I’ll just say – sorry Sullivan, you were right. Oh boy were you ever right.
Davis X. Machina
Hillary Clinton’s political career is effectively over unless she can become some kind of senatorial powerhouse
Not necessarily. Lieberman’s example shows you can create an independent barony in the Senate if you’ve got the fundraising base.
Way to bring the party together, John. Whatever happened to unity? IMO Clinton is fully justified in fighting right up to the convention for this nomination – Obama’s ‘movement,’ of which you are a part, is neither Democratic nor progressive. Why should we allow a hostile takeover of our party by a quasi-3rd party movement that only knows one thing with 100% conviction: that they hate the Clintons? You should all be ashamed of yourselves & the way you have acted.
This is why Obama will lose if he is the nominee – because his surrogates & supporters will alienate the rest of the party in their desperate attempt at self-validation.
Please tell me if this is spoof. I can’t tell anymore.
Awesome spoofing, Justin.
Andrew Sullivan is not getting an apology from me any time soon. He has admitted bad judgment, but no apology yet for his ‘decadent coastal elites forming a fifth column’ nonsense back in 2002.
He was virulantly anti-Hillary back in the fall, but was unable to articulate anything seriously wrong about her. Maybe it was one of those subconcious ‘blink’ assessments that a Democratic partisan just will not pick up on due to our own biases.
It is pretty jarring to come to the realization that someone you have defended for fifteen years is an utter shit. It completely sucks to think that William Safire, for one, has been right about her. I hope my grudging respect for Obama is not a similarly serious lapse of judgment.
Just Some Fuckhead
I don’t think it matters anymore. At this point, it makes me all giggly either way.
By the majority of Democratic voters. This time, just to be fair, the minority should win.
John, it’s important to remember that the Democratic beef with the 2000 election was not the popular vote.
The complaint was that they didn’t count all the votes. Officially, Gore lost Florida by a few hundred votes, and thus just missed out on the electoral college votes he needed. The Supreme Court ruling meant that Florida didn’t need to recount votes. Later studies by newspapers showed that even in the strictest vote re-counting rules the Republicans had proposed, Gore would have snuck ahead by a few hundred votes, and should have netted Florida’s electoral college votes. Thus the election was awarded unjustly to Bush.
That Gore won the popular vote by a few million was uncontested by anyone – and it was always a consolation prize. Although that result did prompt people to question the wisdom of the electoral college system, it was never proposed as a reason Gore should be pronounced the winner of the election.
So the Clinton campaign’s reasoning here is completely unfounded, even if the popular vote was her way. It’s nothing like what went wrong in Florida.
I agreed with Sully, and my opinion was that he did not suffer from CDS. He was stating the facts, as he saw them. I saw the same damn thing, and I was repeatedly derided for saying that I would never vote for her because she would stoop to the lowest point possible to ‘win’ and drag this out forever.
I was right when I said that I would never vote for her, and my opinion has only been reinforced by her shenanigans over the last few months. Hillary has been running for president since at least 1993, and coming in to this she had convinced herself that everyone was just going to coronate her and send her on her way. Her campaign never even considered the possibility that some relatively unknown ‘black guy’ from nowhere would, playing by the rules, kick her ass to the curb. They are paying for their arrogance now, but they are quickly trying to make us pay for it instead.
I had more than enough reasons not to like her based on her Senate record alone. I knew how the Clinton Machine worked having watched it in action in the 90’s. With the ‘new’ political playbook by K. Rove in hand, I knew she was going to be a nearly non-stop disaster if things did not go her way in the primary. If things would have gone the way her and her cadre thought it would, none of this would have happened. No Wright, no plagiarism, nothing. The clouds would part, the sun would shine, angels would blow their trumpets, and Hillary would descend from the Heavens to accept what was rightfully hers.
It did not happen, and the only thing they had left was to go negative. Little to no serious thought was given to boosting herself to make her more appealing to the voters. Instead it has been all about tearing down Obama from the get-go. I guess that if you don’t have much to tout about yourself in the first place, the only option is to go negative on your opponent. Old school politics at its worst.
I agree with John Cole though. This can’t be stopped until the process reaches its conclusion, or Hillary concedes on her own. Any other conclusion may be more problematic than it would be worth to the party, which sucks as I would like to see this end yesterday.
When this process ends, and if Obama is rightfully declared the winner, the Democratic party will be a changed party. New school politics will have overturned the old school style, but the game would be far from over for the new school gang. The old school gang will be knocked off the throne, but they will be trying to regain their control in any way that they can. They have become used to a system that they can control and manipulate to their benefit, and losing control of that is going to piss them off to no end.
Obama and his people will have to watch their backs, and in turn they are going to need us to watch their backs. Barack has taken his campaign to the people and won their hearts, hope and votes. He needs us, and he came to us and asked for our help. Once he is declared the winner, we need to stand behind him all the way in to the White House and beyond.
Expect plenty of sabotage, manipulation and deceit from Barack’s detractors. Sadly, this applies to both parties. If they succeed and Obama isn’t the Democratic primary winner, I will write him in in the fall.
I am voting for Obama, and that is that.
THat used to be my biggest fear. But every chance he gets, BO exceeds my expectations. I was an Edwards/Dodd guy, was very skeptical of MUP, but at every turn, he’s turned out to be better than I thought.
John – he’s quoting Riverdaughter as a serious source of information. He’s obviously long past the point of rationality.
Just Some Fuckhead
Yeah, me too, except I figured out Edwards was a poseur and phony long before he quit the race.
Obama’s recent comment about McCain “losing his bearings” was so subtly brilliant and effective that it gives me hope he might actually be able to win the GE.
That and they didn’t follow the rules. Gore followed them, challenging the votes in courts. The Republicans had a “bourgeois riot” and eventually won through a supreme court ruling, that was so arbitrary the justices writing it said it shouldn’t set a precedent.
I couldn’t have put it better myself.
Bob In Pacifica
Rick, I posted under the same name, “Bob In Pacifica.” My mistake was mention the “participate” thing to Jeralyn and suggested that Clinton had been disingenuous to the DNC. Seems to me that demanding delegates from a primary is participating. Jeralyn is still posting polls for West Virginia.
Moderation? Are you sure? Last time I was there, my comments went straight though. If a moderator didn’t like my post, they’d reply telling me I was wrong and please don’t post again, but I don’t think they have an automated moderation system. Did you put in a large number of linkes?
Huh. The one time I got banned from a thread was for suggesting that when Obama removed his name from the Michigan ballot, it was at the least a reasonable interpretation of what it meant not to participate in the Michigan primary. Of course the common opinion there is he removed his name for political advantage, and it’s his own fault if he gets no delegates as a result.
Bob In Pacifica
Soylent, I think that Brachiator is right. This is the end for Hillary. She hasn’t performed for her real constituency (the corporatocracy). The other thing is that most of Clinton’s support is not the rabid kind you see on the the nets. You can’t sustain the cult-like hysteria forever. Reality will return to most of them. Jeralyn can follow her to the ends of the earth, but she’s lost a lot of credibility with the insanity at TL.
Many of the people who voted for Clinton early have a bad taste their mouths now. If Obama wins, and carries a lot of Dems into Washington with him, there aren’t going to be a lot of Clinton supporters wanting an alternate history. If Obama doesn’t win, and the Dems perceive her as the reason why (and people already feel that’s her intention) they lost in 2008, she’ll be despised.
Earlier today I came across this post title at Memeorandum from My DD and thought wow, they finally are throwing in the towel. Then I read the post.
Funny and sad all at once.
Bob In Pacifica
Had to share this, from Salon, as an answer to “What Should Hillary Do.” Reading this I can only believe that ProudTexasGirl is a Republican plant. This was posted at Salon:
Dennis - SGMM
Fixed for brevity and accuracy.
ProudTexasGirl, sad-eyed stray puppies do not obliterate Iran.
Your analogy is a little weak methinks…
Mass suicides coming? Sounds like this Clintonjugend took a blood oath.
The Other Steve
Testing my new crackberry
That is one of the main reasons I will not join progressive blogs like TalkLeft and quit Daily Kos; the ‘disappearing’ of comments and commentators, and one of the main reasons I post here. John lets commentary stand, and takes action only in the most egregious cases. Which rarely happens. Why? It seems that the commentators here are more than intelligent enough to call bullshit when they see it, and he lets us hash it out between us like adults.
What I find fascinating is that John, a former Republican, runs this site in what I consider a more progressive fashion than DK, TL or most any other popular progressive blog out there. I originally quit the Democratic party after ’92 due to what I referred to as the ‘PC Police’. Only certain ‘Democratic thoughts’ were to be voiced, and anything objectionable was quickly relegated as ‘not PC’, and therefore not to be voiced (or heard).
When I joined Kos a few years ago, I thought that I could work within their ‘system’. Nope. While I was rarely troll rated, and never had anything I said ‘disappeared’, I saw enough of it that I quickly disagreed with their reasoning for doing so. I see nothing wrong with a commentary rating system, but to make commentary you disagree with just disappear without addressing it and dealing with it is just wrong IMO.
If anything, it seems like something that the right would embrace (e.g. RedState), which makes this place and the way John runs it an interesting contrast, at least for me.
I rest my case.
This seems patently obvious. The wonder is why she can’t see it. Some quiet inner voice must be telling her that she may be committing political suicide by driving wedges into the party, yet she soldiers on.
Of all the decent bloggers who have tipped their heads back and drank deep the Clinton kool-aide, this one is the most peculiar. Watching Armstrong descend from election wonk to full-on delusional and intellectually dishonest hack has been both fascinating and depressing.
This points to why we like Obama. He talks to us as though we are adults, not children being lulled to sleep with fairy tales.
Um, are there awards given out for most overwritten blog post of the year? That one would certainly be in the running.
As for me, I’m another one who didn’t buy into the evilness of Hillary at first. I had some arguments with my son about the matter. That was back when Edwards was in the race, and I was supporting him. Then when he dropped out, I decided to go with Obama because she was so weaselly about her war authorization vote. Then every time I turned around, she or Bill was doing something more despicable than the day before. So my son was right. Sully’s right. Bill’s a jerk, too. And maybe ProudTexasGirl should go retire with the Clintons and take care of their puppies for them. But I hear they’re not all that nice to the hired help.
Oh and I should add, great place here JC. Keep up the good work.
Andrew Sullivan is never owed an apology. He is still wrong. Read more Digby, less Sulivan. I repeat, Sullivan is always wrong. If you can name one thing he has been correct on, I’d like to know.
Say it again: Andrew is never correct, lather, rinse repeat.
First time poster, can I just say that I love John Cole and this blog?
You guys rock.
But then again, I’m overly impressed with those living in reality. meh.
That is a good question. The only answer I’ve come up with is when you’re deluded, you think other people see the world the way you do. Consider the comment she made about hard working white Americans, along with others in the campaign suddenly bringing up the issue of race. This may have some advantage, giving an argument why she’s more electable, or even pushing up her popular vote wins in West Virginia and Kentucky, but it’s incredibly short sighted. The super delegates are going to determine the winner, and one of their fears must be that if Hillary becomes the nominee after Obama won the delegate count, African Americans will abandon the party. Hillary Clinton’s comments could only have brought those fears to the fore. So why did she do that? It’s hard to fathom, but I think she’s so invested in her vision of how things are that justifies what she’s doing, she’s not able to see how what she says will be seen by other people in the party.
Let’s not get too worked up here. Nothing has changed since last Tuesday. The race is over. Obama knows it. Hillary knows it.
What Hillary is trying to do is create a narrative. But it isn’t going to work. Hillary has been trying to change the discussion to popular votes, electability, competency, experience, Jenga skills. Anything to move it from the unavoidable reality that it is impossible for her to retake the lead in pledged delegates.
Hawaii has 20 delegates. Barack Obama won Hawaii by over 50 points. Absolutely crushed her. Do you know what his delegate win was? 8 delegates.
West Virginia has 28 delegates. So even if we assume that Hillary crushes Obama in West Virginia it means she will get about 10 delegates.
So she is going to get this big percentage win and then the Obama campaign is going to say “Congratulations. You are now only down 156 delegates”.
The race baiting sucks but it is unavoidable. And honestly I think it helps Obama because it normalizes the discussion. 5 months of race based arguments will temper this issue in the general, at least some.
Nothing has changed. Hillary will still concede no later than June 10th. Don’t listen to this crap about how she is going to fight to the convention. She won’t. If she doesn’t concede gracefully she will force the superdelegates to turn on her and completely humiliate her.
ta d00d! :)
‘Hey, I calls ’em like I sees ’em! I’m a whale biologist!’ ;)
Didn’t you read the post? It’s not about delegates, it’s about the popular vote. Hillary is trying to win the popular vote and convince the supers to hand her the nomination because of that, even though it’s not a legitimate metric.
WV is critical to her strategy for that. She could beat Obama by 200,000 votes there.
Sullivan was right about the Clintons Ken. Digby is right about everything else.
Next she’ll be claiming the hanging chad votes Gore got jipped out of in election 2000 Florida.
Wow. Soliciting apologies for Andrew Sullivan…just, wow.
A.M. projects his own failings and self loathing onto those by whom he is most threatened. He obsesses on the motes in Billary’s eye so that he won’t have to take a look at the rotting, maggot filled beams in his own.
The motherfucker supported GWB through a stolen election and a disastrous, lying-ass war and every other abomination along the way, calling those of us with open eyes traitors, fifth columnists, and other insults too numerous to catalogue. He preached gay monogamy while seeking anonymous bareback sex online. In the early halcyon days of the Glorious Invasion he publicly ruminated over which was sexier and more daddy-like, Rumsfeld or Cheney; seemingly pretending to be a WWII WAC fantasizing about Douglas McArthur.
The man has zero self awareness, no perspective, no filters, no credibility, and no shame. So naturally, he has a prominent perch in the MSM, especially online.
NO ONE owes Andrew fucking Sullivan anything, least of all any kind of apology. Quite the opposite. He should be made, along with many others, to spend the remainder of his days tending to the traumatized citizens of Iraq and the families of our war dead, all the while repeating “I am so sorry” over and over with out end.
Oof. Skagit county. Fucking Tulips. I moved out of there for a reason, and moved almost ten people down here to Seattle for a reason.It’s a complete microcosm of government dysfunction. You have the moneyed elite up on waugh hill taking the people for all they are worth, like with little revenge bit they did with la venture, where they imposed retarded school schedules because their new bond measure didn’t pass.This almost being mothers day makes me feel sad for my parents who still buy into this crap. I try, but it’s hard to rehabilitate someone who has bought into the big daddy theory of republican politics.
I just popped over to TalkLeft and found them crucifying Obama for not campaigning in Kentucky. The nerve! It’s almost like he only thinks certain states are important! I decided to point out that if Clinton can decide which states “matter”, it should be alright for Obama to target his campaign resources in some states and not others.
BTD told me that Clinton had never said any such thing and I should “go away”. So I used the Google and found a Mark Penn quote about certain states not being “significant”. Well, that was Mark Penn talking, not Hillary! So I used Google to find a Hillary quote minimizing Obama’s victories because–get this–many of them were in “red states”. I went to share this quote. . . hey, where’d the post button go?
Oh, and they told me “go back to Daily Kos”. Before the banning I told them I came from Balloon Juice. “Same thing” they said. But BJ is listed in the “blogs we like” at TL!
The Other Steve
DK goes through phases. I’ve been a trusted user there off and on for years. Not right now, as I hardly visit lately. The worst period was actually when BTD/Armando was there. There was a handful of users along with him who trolled some pretty pathetic stuff. i.e. thought police, as you note. Now last fall when I was last a trusted user, it was different. It was pretty much just the really blatant insults towards the candidates, along with some obvious GOP trolls. I don’t know what it is like now, although from what I’ve seen while it’s obviously leaning Obama now, there’s little tolerance for calling Hillary a bitch and things like that.
It’s not really fair to compare balloon-juice to DK. I don’t know about talkleft or mydd as I never visit there. DK has so many more users, you need to have some user controled mechanism to clean shit up. It’s one of the reasons why I like BJ better, the smaller community, but that doesn’t mean DK is necessarily bad. It is, for what it is, a great platform.
I did get into some HUGE fights with him over it. BTD even called me the worst thing to ever happen to dailyKos because of it. Yet I think in the end I won that battle, as like I said last year it was a lot better. It was my suggestion that they impose limits to the number of troll ratings a single user could hand out. I’m sure others offered the suggestion as well, but I was one of the louder proponents in the comments.
That being said, I learned a lot from the dailykos comment ratings. I learned how to disagree without being disrespectful. So the ratings do serve a purpose.
The Other Steve
Oh yeah, I agree with many of the others. Andrew Sullivan is a hack.
limbaugh's pilonidal cyst
Y’know, I’m starting to think that she’s really Joe in pantsuit drag. I mean, do you ever see them together? I rest my case.
This is another reason why Hillary’s campaign needs to be crushed. She looked this person in the eye (literally or electronically) and gave her the old “wasn’t that a beautiful day?” and made her think she cares about her concerns. She doesn’t.
Texas Girl probably thinks Hillary wants to give those abused children she works with universal health care. Hillary has no more intention of doing that than she does of repudiating her AUMF vote. She would not have received more donations from health insurance companies than any other Democrat this cycle–and possibly any other candidate, period–unless that were the case.
Just today in the paper I saw a story about a US solier in Iraq trying to get prosthetic legs for an Iraqi girl whose legs were blown off. How the hell does someone who helped make that happen pass herself off as the candidate of wounded children?
Texas Girl deserves better.
MyDD is one of the sanest Hillary blogs out there. Jerome has been a bit hacktackular lately, but most of the other front pagers aren’t too bad.
The diaries are a whole ‘nother ball game, though.
For the DLCers, and Hillary foremost among them, universal healthcare is like abortion for the culture warriors — alwasy promised, and never delivered. For once it is delivered, then the electoral issue is gone and the next elections in jeopardy.
In my new Hillary cynicism mode, I begin to understand why she may have made such an outrageous hash of health care policy back in the day. Maybe she meant to do so all along.
TOS, I can see that Kos believes that the site needs to have some control over crap posters there. I just think that having the TU system is stupid due to the continual abuse of it. Having site ‘leaders’ police the comments would be fine as Kos would be able to implement some kind of fair standard.
But as it is, the system sucks. I was there during the BTD/Armando pie fights, and I agree that there were a group of a-holes who acted as the Kos Thought Police. Problem is, they are still there. I read the site daily, and I see the same crap as usual. Admittedly, it is not as bad as it was in the past, but it is still too much for me to participate in. Which is sad as I am a 50 stater, and I agree with much of what Kos has written about the party.
Open discourse is best, even at its worst. Warts and beauty, we are all that and more. Hiding the ugly (or what you disagree with) is only sticking your head in the sand.
There is a better way to do what Kos wants, and it would get rid of the controlling atmosphere that some of the TU’s bring to the site. Give the ‘power’ to real ‘Trusted Users’, not arbitrarily give it out based on the collected ‘mojo’ a user has accumulated. That leaves the system ripe for abuse by outsiders who sneak in, build up a phony rep and then wreak havoc.
I am a firm believer in letting people say whatever they want and then mocking them. Myself included.
Easy now. The tulips are only one month of the year. I avoid MV/Burlington as much as possible year-round. Unincorporated SV is awfully nice, tulips and all.
“get the DNC to seat MI and FL delegations based on the January primaries with Obama getting 0 popular votes for Michigan”
As Blackadder would say to Baldrick: “I think I’ve spotted a little flaw in your cunning plan.”
There’s no way this will fly, given Clinton’s supposed rationale for fighting for MI and FL.
But Blackadder always dies. Not a reassuring analogy.
You got it. Hillary is more interested in her own vision over anything else because she is not a natural politician who is attuned more to her constituents than her own desires. She spent years watching her husband, a natural born politician, and foolishly said to herself, “Yeah, I can do that.”
But she couldn’t. And there is some stubbornness within her that makes it impossible for her to admit a mistake, to honestly retract a lie, or to retreat when she has clearly been defeated.
Worse yet, Bill apparently thinks that he can tutor Hillary on the fly on how to play the game. The result has been a disaster for both of them in which they have alienated everyone except die hard loyalists and “Friends of Bill” who are desperate to get back into power or the political and social limelight.
Yep. Look for Hillary surrogates to make a lot of noise about “electability” and “popular votes” on the Sunday talking head shows.
Also, as has been reported by CNN and others, Hillary is continuing the fight because some of her well-heeled supporters are fighting a delaying action by putting pressure on the Party and their local representatives, and threatening to cease funding their campaigns.
Or we could make them the 58th state in Obama’s USofA… ;)
the politic golfer
What is Hillary thinking? She believes racism is her path to the nomination? Is there nothing she won’t do or say? She is playing the race card in the name of electability? This from the person who began this campaign with polls finding that 48% of the electorate despised her so much they’d never vote for her. Since then, in her attempt to win the nomination, she’s lied and she’s proved she has no principles. I’d bet that there are fewer racist voters in this Country than there are voters who despise her.
She claims that she is more electable. Should we assume she can run a general election campaign? Why? Quite clearly she could not figure out how to run a Democratic Presidential nomination campaign. Caucuses – they don’t matter; primaries scheduled after Super Tuesday – they don’t matter. Quite simply, we should appoint her the nominee because! That certainly would have cost less.
Apprently SNL agrees.
LOL. Yeah, I saw that and thought it was a pretty funny gaffe.
Someone had an Obama flag lapel pin spoof the next day celebrating all 57 states which also had me laugh.
And it was obvious that he meant that he had visited 47 states (he explicitly excluded Alaska and Hawaii) and that Oregon was going to be the 48th… but I saw where every right-wing hack on Memeorandum joined in on the swarm within a couple of hours of the clip hitting the ‘net. If that’s the best they get on him, they’re in for a long summer/fall.