I don’t know if you have been paying attention, but the flow of delegates to Obama appears to have tapered off the past two days. The last I saw go to him was this fellow, and I have not heard anything since, which means that the Obama campaign has this choreographed perfectly.
CNN has Obama at 1904 total delegates, 121 shy of the 2025 needed, so rather than have it appear that the supers put him over the top, they are going to let his delegate pickups from Oregon and Kentucky launch him past the point where there is no way Hillary can overcome his pledged delegate majority, and the supers will push him over the finish line next week.
r€nato
I too have noticed that his superdelegate annoucements have been exquisitely timed. Obama may turn out to be a far better general election candidate than we ever could have hoped for.
flyerhawk
I don’t know about that John. He seems to be getting about 2 SDs a day for the past 2 weeks. RCP has him with a 20 SD lead which is about a 25 SD swing in the past 2 weeks.
Helena Montana
Sadly, he may have lost one of his super delegates today. Sen. Ted Kennedy appears to have had a stroke–he’s been, or is being airlifted from Cape Cod to Mass General.
Mike P.
He picked up a super from MD this morning – a DNCer. DemConWatch is the go-to site to keep up with the latest, and probably most accurate, delegate count.
PeterJ
2008 Democratic Convention Watch has been adding about four or five super delegates a day for Obama for a couple of days now.
Ian Thorpe
I have never before known a political party get so ecstatic about having chosen a candidate who cannot possibly win.
Dump them both and draft in Al Gore :-)
KRK
This week’s endorsements (from DCW):
5-17-08
DNC Greg Pecoraro (MD) for Obama
5-16-08
Rep. Pete Stark (CA) for Obama
DNC Keith Umemoto (CA) for Clinton.
Rep. Brad Ellsworth (IN) for Clinton.
DNC Eric Coleman (MI) for Obama.
DNC Virgie Rollins (MI) for Obama.
5-15-08
Rep. Jim McDermott (WA) for Obama
Rep. Howard Berman (CA) for Obama
Rep. Henry Waxman (CA) for Obama
DNC Larry Cohen (DC) for Obama
5-14-08
DNC Christine Marques (DA)* for Obama
Rep. Peter Visclosky (IN) for Obama
TN Add-on Vicky Harwell (TN)# for Clinton
DNC Mike Morgan (OK) for Obama
DNC Lena Taylor (WI) for Obama
DNC Robert Ficano (MI) for Obama
5-13-08
Rep. Joe Donnelly (IN) for Obama
LA add-on Ray Nagin (LA)# for Obama
DPL Roy Romer (CO) for Obama.
DNC Anita Bonds (DC) for Obama
DNC Awais Khaleel (WI) for Obama
DNC Lauren Wolfe (MI) for Obama
5-12-08
Rep. Tom Allen (ME) for Obama
DNC Dolly Strazar (HI) for Obama
Sen. Daniel Akaka (HI) for Obama
Idaho Democratic Party Chair R. Keith Roark for Obama
5-11-08
DNC Crystal Strait (CA) for Obama
It does seem that they’re trying to pace it so that the pledged delegates from OR & KY will put him over the line.
Jake
I’m sure the folks over at TalkLeft, MyDD, and HillaryIs44 are convinced that the flow has slowed because Hillary is finally getting to them.
They are finally LISTENING to HER!!!
Ben
Huh, I was all ready to castigate Mr. Thorpe for his baffling opinions (no chance in a year when enormous numbers of citizens say the country is on the wrong track, the economy has gone to hell, and the Republican party is already losing battles for house seats in places like Mississippi?), but the smiley face gives me pause. Is this serious? Is it a joke? I don’t know, but I’m sure as hell not following that link to find out.
Hannah
At the beginning of this primary campaign, who would have ever guessed that my state of Oregon, with its late primary, would have made any difference. Months ago I figured that Hillary would have wrapped it up by now, and I would write in Chris Dodd, as he was my first choice. But now my vote for Barack Obama (my new first choice) will help put him over the top. How fun is that? (Well, not for Hillary & her supporters.)
I think the strategy that Obama is using is brilliant. Jed at jedreport.com (who has been putting out some amazing videos) has been proposing this strategy for weeks.
PeterJ
Obama is also soon going to overtake Clinton in the subcategory DNC super delegates. If I’m not wrong, Clinton had a huge lead among these at the start of the campaign.
Jake
Let’s assume for the moment that Clinton really does believe that there’s a chance the superdels will break for her en masse at the end of the primaries. I’m not talking about people switching sides, I’m just talking about the folks who are left out there.
So there are what, order 230 superdelegates left out there? How many of those are truly undecided?
We may never find this out, but I wonder if at present, there simply aren’t enough to carry her. She basically keeps arguing that she’s alive because the remaining supers could break her way. The small modicum of plausibility exists because we simply don’t know how many are truly undecided. One wonders what the narrative in the MSM would be if there were any insight into how the remaining uncommitteds were leaning.
Ted
Why take the chance of looking completely stupid if he does? Don’t you understand the concept of hedging your bets?
cindiloohoo
Ian Thorpe:
“I have never before known a political party get so ecstatic about having chosen a candidate who cannot possibly win.”
If that was a joke, it didn’t come off that way. If it wasn’t a joke:
When Obama wins I will be more than happy to bake a great big tasty crow pie for you to eat – Jim Crow, that is.
Just Some Fuckhead
Jim Crow pie. Mmmhmm.
Just Some Fuckhead
I’m pretty sure HRC said the total delegates needed was 2210 when she did her interview with Tool Blitzer the other day.
Dennis - SGMM
I’m going to miss some of the far-fetched arguments that the Clintonistas have been generating as one metric after another turns against her. They still have time before the end of the primaries to drag out her horoscope and the prophecies of Nostradamus.
nightjar
Mr. Thorpe is British, where they can throw candidates (and elected Prime Ministers) under the bus just about any old time.
ThymeZone
The CNN story leads me to believe that Kennedy may be okay.
Of course, it’s the Comedy News Network, so who knows for sure?
And “Obama can’t possibly win?”
Sorry, we eat second-rate spoof for breakfast here.
Back to your cheetos.
cleek
yeah, and i’m sure some of Obama’s current superdels are the wrong kind* of superdel.
* – wrong kind T.B.D.
dr. bloor
I was going to write a snarky post saying as much, forgetting that those people are beyond satire at this point.
Conservatively Liberal
I was for Gore to get in early on, and I would have gladly voted for him. But I would be upset if he stepped in now, as I am sure many others would be. Obama has earned his win and there is no need to ‘save’ the party, I think Barack is doing just fine.
I noticed the taper too, and if it is planned as John opines then Barack knows that he has this in hand and is playing it out to the end exquisitely. Hillary will get her chance, and she will fall short. From that point on, if her supporters do not want to vote for him, it is sour grapes on their part. Fair minded Hillary supporters (read REAL democrats) will support the party candidate, or at worst sit it out. I doubt those supporters would move on to McCain because he is about the farthest thing from a Democrat that there is.
I hope Senator Kennedy is ok, and that he can get back on his feet again soon. He is getting up there in age, so anything like this can turn bad real fast but I will hope for the best for him.
DM
“I’m pretty sure HRC said the total delegates needed was 2210 when she did her interview with Tool Blitzer the other day.”
Too bad the total required count isn’t up to her…
Conservatively Liberal
Fixed.
Pb
Yeah, but they’re stuck with McCain anyhow…
ThymeZone
Win.
TR
Agreed.
Dennis - SGMM
That’s something she’s been touting for a while. It was part of the run up to her recently voiced concern that the Dems choose a “legitimate” nominee. The definition of “legitimate” will, of course, be determined by Clinton in a fair and impartial manner.
TR
Of course.
I predict she not only pronounces herself the legitimate nominee, but then asserts that she is too legit — too legit to quit.
ThymeZone
“I’m too sexy for my pantsuit ….”
cleek
here’s an awesome comment from ‘riverdaughter’ (on her own site):
i’m speechless
cleek
and, b.t.w. “re-registration” in riverdaughter’s post refers to the idea that ClintonCult members will drop their Democratic party registration and re-register under another party.
poor little dears.
Dennis - SGMM
I’m sure that they and their sense have been estranged for years.
Liberal Masochist
I sort of miss myiq=negativeinfinity-1 and pluk. They really spiced things up around here… Is it wrong to admit that I used to look forward to the unintentional comedy they routinely provided?
Doug H. (Fausto no more)
No, we’re concerned that you’re too caught up in your pity party to realize what a McCain presidency leads to. Hint: More flag-draped coffins, more grief-stricken Middle Easterners.
Dennis - SGMM
OT: Holy fry-an-egg-on-the-sidewalk: it’s 102.0 °F here (East San Gabriel Valley, Southern California) as I type. G*d help a firefighter on a day like this. Wildfires have already started. It’s going to be a long Summer.
Garrigus Carraig
@Liberal Masochist
Apt handle. But please. I’m so sick of those d00dz. DONOTWANT.
ThymeZone
Yes.
SA2SQ
Ninerdave
John, you’ve got it all wrong. Jeez.
Dennis - SGMM
Any woman who, in a fit of pique, would turn over her vote to the party that wants to control her womb, the same party that denies health care to her and her children, isn’t going to consider anything as trivial as people dying. Some of these people are truly lost to us. On the bright side, the collective IQ of the Democratic party will go up slightly if they leave it.
cleek
really. well, that changes everything. since she’s already been elected President, what are we arguing about ?
Xenos
She needs to register her mechanized, self-moving goalposts with the RMV.
Davis X. Machina
Every baseball fan knows what it’s like at TalkLeft, et al.
Fourteen games out with ten games to play.
Bench the stars and start the rookies.
Incertus
By the time the convention actually starts, that will be the number, or at least something north of 2025, where it stands today, because FL and MI will be seated in some fashion. But you can bet your genitals that whatever that number winds up being, FL and MI aren’t going to put Clinton over the top.
Keith
At this point, I think it’s perfectly reasonable to let all 50 states (plus territories) get their full say in the primary. How often does Kentucky get this much coverage in their primary?
As long as both candidates conduct themselves in a respectful manner and not trash the other, then it’s a healthy process. My problem has always been the unnecessary mudslinging. I mean, when you’re getting outclassed by Mitt Romney, it’s time to take a step back and have a talk with your strategists and inner voices.
PeterJ
And a super delegate switched today from Clinton to Obama.
Rick Taylor
(I thought I posted this before, but I don’t see it)
In her call with bloggers she stressed May 31st, when the rules committee meets and decides how the delegates from Michigan and Florida will be apportioned. The big question on my mind is how she’s going to respond when (as seems almost certain) they fail to rule in her favor. She’s come close to saying that any solution that doesn’t award her all of the delegates from the unsanctioned primaries (one of which Obama wasn’t even on the ballot) will mean the nominee chosen will be illegitimate. So May 31 will be either when she walks back from this position and attempts to bring the party together, or when she digs even deeper in.
Dennis - SGMM
It could just be the blur of soundbites but, I believe that she’s used the word “illegitimate” more than once in her recent statements. It seems like a strategy to influence the supers because she has no chance of overtaking Obama in pledged delegates. As for helping to bring the party together, I doubt that she will. The Clintons seem to have a short memory for help and a long memory for a slight. Once Obama is the nominee she’ll probably make a few perfunctory statements about party unity and then go back to having lunch with Joe Lieberman.
KRK
It appears that the switcher, Jack Evans, is a pledged delegate, not a superdelegate. Still the same vote, though.
Obama also got an add-on superdelegate today from Kansas, Lt. Gov. Mark Parkinson.
And at the state caucus in Nevada today, Obama gained one delegate and Clinton lost one. From 13-12 at the county level to 14-11 at the state level. Buzz is that Clinton delegates may be losing steam and are less willing to make the effort to show up and participate at state conventions. This might have an effect on the final numbers for Texas as well, where county delegates have to travel long distances at their own expense (I think) to participate in the state convention in Austin.
A.Political
Whilst discussing the complete obliteration of Iran of course.
Chuck Butcher
Sunday evening my wife and I have VIP seats in Pendleton, OR for Obama. It’s a 100 mile drive, but out here, that’s practically around the block. Just don’t mention gas prices to me. Today major station $3.84 unleaded regular.
PeterJ
If so, then he should vote for Clinton. Pledged delegates should vote for whoever they got appointed to vote for, unless that candidate has dropped out of the race.
Soylent Green
Superdelegates are not low-information voters. All but very few would have decided months ago. They are waiting for political cover to announce. Then most will get on Obama’s bandwagon, probably this week.
Jess
Good for you! I assume you’ll post a full report on your site? I’m having serious regrets that I wasn’t able to attend any of Obama’s events, but I switched my support to him at the last minute up here in Mass.
Dulcie
That’s great news! My mother and oldest nephew are convention delegates from Clark County (where Las Vegas is located). My nephew is hoping to become a state delegate to the national convention in Denver. Keep your fingers crossed for him.
Bey
Just got back from the state convention in CO. All the CO Dem players spoke: Gov Ritter and Lt Gov O’Brien, both Salazaars, Udall (of course). 10,000 delegates and alternates were there – a 5-fold increase from the 2004 convention. Day-am. It was electrifying. The CO republican chair dismissed it as a “far-left lovefest”. That man had better open his eyes before November. Typical that they are unable to wrap their atrophied brains around the idea of an extremely enegergized and highly focused Co Dem party. They’re gonna get a rude awakening come Nov.
McAuliffe spoke on behalf of Clinton and opened with the popular vote count – including MI and FL ‘natch. He was shouted down not once but twice by the Obama delegates. After that he segued into a unity theme and was quite concilliatory.
Not so Obama’s rep, Gov Janet Napolitano. She was definitely representing the presumptive Dem nominee.
It was great and I got a couple of great fridge magnets. The one for my Dad has Bush on it and it says “Won’t someone please give Bush a blow job so we can impeach him?”
Mine has a picture of the shrub, concentrating deeply with a furrowed brow, and says Like a Rock. Only dumber.
Ciao from beautiful blue Colorado!
Hannah
Hey Chuck (Butcher)! I’m in Bend and remember your running for our 2nd District Congressional seat two years ago. We had some great Democratic candidates (including yourself), didn’t we? Too bad the Rs dominate our district, though I think it’s changing. For the first time in the city of Bend, there are more registered Dems than Rs… barely. Hopefully it will continue to go bluer.
I saw Obama last week here in Bend. A packed gym of 2,000+ people. Good time, good speech, good questions and answers.
Have fun in Pendleton!
Just Some Fuckhead
Hey, Obama update from beautiful Virginia Beach! I had a cookout yesterday evening and I told my guests they’d better vote for Obama in the general or I’d break their fucking legs. They didn’t stay long afterwards.
Today I worked out in the backyard, putting out twelve bags of cedar mulch in all the garden beds and reworking the brick patio in the shape of a giant O. Go Obama!
Notorious P.A.T.
It’s true. Obama will be going against John McCain, a candidate with a huge advantage in name recognition, money, establishment backing, and experience in campaigning. No way he could defeat someone like that! ! ! ! ! ! !
funfunfun
he obviously doesn’t have The Experience or Leadership- why, he’s barely even spent much time in Washington DC! There’s no reason to think that the candidate who was able to organizationally knock out the most powerful figures in the Democratic party would stand a chance in November. Haven’t you seen that he doesn’t beat McCain in a recent poll of a single state????
Cain
I canvassed today for Obama and now I’m working the Obama event in Portland tomorrow. It’ll be a good time. The day starts at 8:00am all the way through 6:00pm most likely. It’s going to be a full day I suspect.
At the volunteer training the guys from the Obama national campaign was telling us how we (Oregon) can end this nomination race and how important Oregon was. So we’re going to do our hardest to give the MUP his win by large margins and as they Vader said in Empire Strikes Back, “end this destructive conflict”.
I suspect I better drink a lot of water between now and tomorrow.
cain
Chuck Butcher
It will be fairly late Sunday before I can put something up, Obama is scheduled for 6:30 PM Pacific and it is around 1.5 hour drive back home.
OR 2CD ’06 Dem Primary was a good event, cordiality and enthusiasm from all candidates. Somebody won and no one got beat up and, no, the candidates were not interchangable.
Bend was my least favorite venue, the crowd was great but the stage lights blinded me, I had a tooth ache (wisdom tooth-removed the next week), and I was stuck using a microphone which I hate. I can talk to a television camera (I use the cameraman) but I am totally distracted by having no audience I can see at all. Deschutes Co Party is a great one.
croatoan
Senator Clinton’s strategy of perduading the superdelegates has already failed: they’re declaring for Obama at a rate of 4:1 this month. Look, these people aren’t heroes, they’re politicians looking out for themselves. If there was a chance they’d be supporting Clinton later, why on earth would they declare for Obama now and risk pissing her off if she won? Why wait until this late in the process? If they were open to being convinced to support her, they’d wait a couple of weeks until the primaries are over.
Chuck Butcher
Some super delegates are constrained until their Primary has been held, Democratic Party of Oregon is officially neutral during any contested Democratic Primary, that means those 5 DPO delegates are supposed to keep quiet until votes are counted May 20th.