Something tells me that the Beijing Olympics won’t see any world records in the marathon.
As a biomedical researcher I will make this small prediction: several years from now statisticians will measure a real and significant ‘Beijing effect’ in endurance athletes who competed outdoors in the 2008 Olympics. Some of the smog damage to competitors’ lungs will heal, and some of it will still be detectable ten years from now.
Libby
On a totally unrelated note, I’m pushing this way undernoticed Crooks & Liars post today. I hope everybody takes the 15 minutes to watch the three videos and passes them on.
Crusty Dem
If this were actually true, the Chinese wouldn’t have any world-class athletes, which is obviously not the case. I think the effects of pollution on lung function are pretty short-term.
Damien
“If this were actually true, the Chinese wouldn’t have any world-class athletes, which is obviously not the case. I think the effects of pollution on lung function are pretty short-term.”
Yes, because everyone in China lives, works, and trains in Beijing. And never mind the predictions of a biomed researcher, it must be true because you say it’s just short-term.
PeterJ
My guess, Chinese world-class athletes stay away from Beijing…
4tehlulz
That’s true. Training in the polluted cities kills the weak athletes off, leaving the strong to represent China.
PeterJ
BTW, is he on spring break or something?
Davis X. Machina
Could also be the results of decent drug-testing.
If performances rebound in London, then it’s the smog.
Mr. Real Chinese Patriot
You are just envious of Chinese economic miracle! Also, it’s totally hypocritical of the West to criticize China’s human-rights record when America invaded Iraq and killed all the Indians. Not the ones in Iraq, the ones in Indiana. You know what I mean. Anyway, I bet all you Americans just wish you had any lung-destroying factories left to pollute with.
lane
morbidity vs. mortality.
There is the relevant comparison.
Crusty Dem
Come on, is Beijing (with improved air quality due to factory shutdowns and limited transportation for residents) that much worse than say, Los Angeles in 1984? The winner of the men’s marathon in that Olympics was only 1 minute off world record pace (at the time). The heat may be more of a factor than the air quality, but I seriously doubt there will be lasting effects.
Jesus, from Tim’s attitude you’d think they were running the marathon in a functioning chimney or a coal mine. I don’t anticipate Michael Phelps needing an iron lung next year…
Crusty Dem
Come on, is Beijing (with improved air quality due to factory shutdowns and limited transportation for residents) that much worse than say, Los Angeles in 1984? The winner of the men’s marathon in that Olympics was only 1 minute off world record pace (at the time). The heat may be more of a factor than the air quality, but I seriously doubt there will be lasting effects.
Jesus, from Tim’s attitude you’d think they were running the marathon in a functioning chimney or a coal mine. I don’t anticipate Michael Phelps needing an iron lung next year…
Martin
I thought so too, but I don’t agree based on what I’ve seen so far.
We’ve seen a number of world records already in 400m swimming. That’s longer than you can manage anaerobically and its not like the air going into the swimming complex is drastically different than what is outside. In addition, the athletes have been out and about for several days now so some of the pollution should already be in their lungs.
True, the marathon (like the cycling we’ve seen) are considerably longer but I understand the body is pretty good at coping with short-term pollution effects. Beijing’s pollution is heavy relative to other cities, but honestly, it’s not bad compared to working conditions for many workers around the world. Men were handling 8-12 hours of heavy work in coal mines for decades on end and yeah, they all got black lung and died, but they were able to perform their job just fine for most of that period.
Unless the pollution actually reduced the oxygen level in the air, or seriously blocked the body’s ability to capture it, or reduced the body’s ability to fill lungs (by coughing, etc.) then I don’t think it’ll be a problem. My guess is that 1000m altitude would have more of an effect.
Tim F.
Martin,
You can’t compare outdoor with indoor sports. The air in a pool is HEPA filtered. If Beijing has a slightly worse than average day the marathoners will almost be competing while smoking unfiltered cigarettes.
Crusty Dem,
Chinese superstars don’t train outdoors in Beijing, and I doubt that they compete there. The answer to your other question is yes, Beijing is fucking heinous. It’s worse than Denver on a brown cloud day. Pittsburgh in the sixties might work better as a comparison.
Steve
Not exactly. Beijing has photochemical smog, which contains (among other things) fine particulate matter, ozone and organic nitrates. Increased levels of fine particulate matter have been linked to increased mortality from all causes and especially from cardiovascular causes. Ozone also really screws with the respiratory system and may also be associated with increased short-term mortality.
I don’t know what the age breakdown is for these mortality studies, but I suspect it’s the old and the infirm – no athletes are likely to die from the air quality. Still, it’s clear that the body can be screwed up by even short-term exposure to high levels of pollution. Gulping air during a marathon can’t help.
Steve
Not exactly. Beijing has photochemical smog, which contains (among other things) fine particulate matter, ozone and organic nitrates. Increased levels of fine particulate matter have been linked to increased mortality from all causes and especially from cardiovascular causes. Ozone also really screws with the respiratory system and may also be associated with increased short-term mortality.
I don’t know what the age breakdown is for these mortality studies, but I suspect it’s the old and the infirm – no athletes are likely to die from the air quality. Still, it’s clear that the body can be screwed up by even short-term exposure to high levels of pollution. Gulping air during a marathon can’t help.
jake
Now, now. IOC Spokesdrone Arne Ljungvist said that grey haze is just heavy mist and the press is just creating hype.
Bill Arnold
Come on, is Beijing (with improved air quality due to factory shutdowns and limited transportation for residents) that much worse than say, Los Angeles in 1984?
Visibility in Beijing is often around 2 blocks. Due to the unsustainable measures taken that you mention, the air is better now but still pretty bad by normal non-Chinese standards.
My wife wants to visit China, but I refuse until they enact and enforce real air pollution control laws. (Due to lungs prone to bronchitis).
China appears to be a capitalist paradise. No (enforced) regulations, relative to the western developed countries. No unions. Inexpensive labor. Easy eminent-domain land grabs (inexpensive bribes perhaps required). Adequate infrastructure. 1330 million people. The Chinese are the competitive threat that we feared the Japanese were in the 80s and 90s; they will probably out-hustle the U.S. over the next 20 years.
Josh
Shit, Isaac Hayes just died.
/threadjack
Phoebe
I was in Beijing in 1991 and it did not look like that. Right about then they were tearing down these little neigborhoods and installing massive highways. Still, people were walking around with Michael Jackson-like masks on, and it was supposed to be bad even then.
Also, I used to live in St. Louis, which is no L.A., but we did have “bad air days” and the news people would tell us to not exercise outdoors. Excercising makes it worse, is what this tells me.
J.A.F. Rusty Shackleford
This is excellent news for Hillary.
mark
How is this August any different? Being Pres’nit is hard work.
Phoebe
Isaac Hayes?!!?? I love him. Loved. Dang!
ploeg
At least the 2008 Olympians will be better off than these guys.
LanceThruster
I live in LA and it is my understanding that autopsies on children who’ve died by accident show decreased lung capacity and long term damage from air pollution.
Phoebe
Lance – you mean the L.A. children who die by accident compared with non L.A. children who die by accident?
LanceThruster
I would think so but the article I looked up does not specifically make this clear (maybe the study it cites does).
Most at Risk; Infants, Elderly, Ill, Machine Operators, and Outdoor Exercisers
A 1987 autopsy study of 15-to-25 year olds showed slight lung airspace inflammation in 75%, and severe damage in 27%. 54% had severe illness in either the bronchial glands or bronchial linings. (97.11.1) And, a 1989 study estimated that “school age children, who represent only 20% of the [South Coast Air] basin’s population, experience more than 40% of the symptoms associated with exposure to ozone.” (97.8.1) (Also noted in another Source for both studies).
“For their body size, children inhale several times more air than adults, and they breathe faster. . . “ taking in more pollutants.
Adrienne
Um, yes. Wasn’t there a guy training there that literally dropped dead? All the outdoor athletes are complaining that Beijing’s air is so dirty and “full” of substance that you can taste the air and feel the matter on your skin and in your mouth when you breath.
That’s fucking disgusting.
From what I’m hearing and reading on these here internets….close enough.
At least this time he has a somewhat legitimate “excuse” to be yucking it up and chillin on vacay. What was his excuse in August 2001?
In his first August in office he was in Crawford clearing brush and brushing off intelligence reports that warned us about 9/11.
In his last August in office he’s in Beijing acting like a frat boy while our boys and girls in uniform are fighting two wars, the economy is in shambles, the housing market is tanking, the credit marking is tightening, inflation is increasing, the national debt and the budget deficit are skyrocketing, Russia is invading Georgia, the Constitution is being shredded and Bin Laden is STILL at large.
Way to go champ. It’s fucking treasonous.
But hey. He DID give up golfing. Wait, no he didn’t. Oh, well.
The Moar You Know
Longtime SoCal resident (I was most assuredly here in 1984). Last trip to China was in 1998. The two are not comparable.
SoCal smog was at its worst, IMO, in the mid-1970s. China…I had never even dreamed in my worst nightmares that smog could get as bad as I have seen it in China (I have not been to Mexico City, which supposedly may be even worse). I am seriously willing to bet that you might be better off smoking a filtered cigarette than breathing without a particulate mask in any given large Chinese city.
Porlock Hussein Junior
Well, of course it’s fun to pontificate on all sides, and no doubt we’ll all gather periodically to compare notes and see whose predictions came out best. Meanwhile from the Washington Post (seen in this week’s Guardian Weekly) here’s John Pomfret, who ran the WaPo’s Beijing bureau up to 2004:
“In 2004, when my family and I moved to Los Angeles … my son’s frequent asthma attacks stopped. When people asked why we’d moved to LA, I started joking: ‘For the air.'”
LanceThruster
Imagine what an autopsy study on the Chinese in Beijing would show considering what was found in the LA studies encompased some of the bad air periods here (as well as through a period of improvement).
Very funny. I feel better about breathing here now (seriously).
Librarian
I sure hope the pollution doesn’t affect any of the women beach volleyball players.
protected static
Weren’t similar concerns raised about Mexico City in 1968? If so, did anyone do any longitudinal follow-up of those athletes?