This seems like a big gamble:
Will people watch for two minutes? How much will it cost? Where will it play? How long will it play.
One thing is for sure, because it deals with substance and not lipstick or other bullshit, it will not get played for free repeatedly on the cable channels.
well, obama’s got the money for it. besides, this isn’t some sort of pivot where from now on all his ads or speeches are going to be positive and wonkish. he’s still going to be bringing the pain to mccain on the stump and elsewhere.
shit, the more obama’s in the spotlight saying smart things about this issue the better he looks. if he can help wrestle this election away from stupid garbage (which the GOP would much like to focus on) he wins both ways.
I saw this on Morning Joe a bit today. They played about 20 seconds of it with the Scar starting to “blah blah blah” over it so you couldn’t even hear it, then cutting it off.
That should tell you how well it will play with the ADHD cable media. To be honest I like watching Morning Joe and feel Scarborough has been mostly fair in his criticisms of Bush and the GOP in recent years. As the election draws nearer though, he seems to be more stridently pro-Republican (not too surprising I guess) and pounds the notion that the Surge is a referendum of sorts on the entirety of our Iraq adventure.
Mika’s cool though.
Obama’s strategist, David Axelrod, did this before with another candidate (Deval Patrick for MA governor) and it was very successful.
The ad plays to actual voters instead of the media echo chamber.
It’s certainly getting a lot of attention in the blogosphere. I see it as a chance for Obama to speak to Americans in a very personal, direct way, and to recapture a bit of the majesty and seriousness of his DNC speech that was washed away by a lipstick covered moose.
He’s a serious guy, this is a serious commercial, these are serious times. Can’t hurt.
It’s a gamble, all right, and I’d be surprised if it’s a huge ad buy, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see it end up in emails.
I think alot of people will watch. The current financial meltdown on Wall Street has people interested and this might be the opportunity to discuss some real issues. I also think parts of it will be get some national play on the news shows. People not inclined to vote for Obama will turn it off, but people who are on the fence (I still can’t believe some of those people exist, except for Colin Powell) or have some holdings that are tanking right now, just might pause and listen. It’s worth the gamble I think.
I’m thinking helping it go viral is what the Obama team is hoping. I’m gonna do my part.
Damn! That was the fastest two minutes I ever experienced. The thing is, he grabs your attention, and holds you. I bet it does get a lot of attention on the grass roots level, as well as on the internet. Personally, I think the TV route is long gone over to older, conservative voters who simply will not vote for Obama.
Also, it does the one thing that everyone said had to be done, address the issues with actual policy solutions. Can you imagine McCain trying to outline anything beyond “Drill, Baby, Drill!”?
Yeah, I know. It hurt when I attempted to imagine that scenario. Now I think I have a migraine.
But it will get played for free on the blogs. I put it up on mine too.
Obama did this in all of the early primary/caucus states with reasonable rates for media buys, and I’d say that worked well.
However, I think he should hire whoever advises Al Gore on his Powerpoint (ack, Keynote) presentations and do a combo personal/informational presentation that graphically contrasts his plan with McCain’s as far as tax cuts go. It’d be a tough job to do it without coming off professorial, but I think he could.
Well, a lot of people have been saying that he needed to seize the opportunity to come out with a solid plan to sell to the American people… I think it was Judis who said he should hold a press conference, but a press conference gets covered for a day at most… an ad buy is out there as long as you want it to be. It could go a long way towards establishing the narrative that Obama has got a plan to get us out of this mess, while McCain’s got… Committees?
The Moar You Know
I like it, but let’s face it – the average American (who I would argue is not this advertisment’s audience) can’t hang in there for more than fifteen seconds.
Good for the base. Not so good for the mushy, stupid (and they are) middle.
The mushy middle might not watch it, but the narrative they walk away with is that Obama is smart and has a plan to fix the economy. If McCain fires back with another attack ad, the image contrast will be stark.
I would argue in a manner of speaking that does not matter. Say the average person gets up after 15 sec., grabs a pop and comes back and catchs the end. That may be all they need to get the impression “this guy sounds like he has thought about this and isn’t some lightweight shucker and jiver” with the hope that people come election day are going to want to vote in someone who will be a knowlegable hand on the steering wheel. Additionally, face it, Obama can not win on “being one of us” with some people, and there is some segment that he will have to prove that he is not some fast talker too (and I mean that in the racial stereotype way) and this ad is designed to do that.
The ad is aimed at online viewers who are willing to watch a 40 minute speech on YouTube. It will get a lot of play.
Remember, in 1992 people were willing to watch half hour infomercials by Ross Perot.
i’m gonna defend the undecideds here for a bit. i’ve spoken with many voters phonebanking and canvassing for obama. and there are many undecideds who are well-informed about the issues, but like to make a reasoned, deliberate decision. there are also many who are legitimately conflicted about the issues. calling undecided voters “stupid” isn’t helping anyone.
People are clamoring for substance, and when you provide it they recoil. But Clinton won with a substantive ecconomic message. there is no down side to doing this. it just needs to be twinned with a simple message. “we are not better off then we were 8 years ago.” i also wonder if obama needs to do something intriguing like announce that he wants to form an “economic joint chiefs of staff” …
I like it. I hope they buy up ad time on Dancing with Stars, Deal or No Deal and MNF… will take up an entire break (aside from the local station spot). It’s not loud, shrill or overly accusatory. It offers real solutions.
It’s good. I think it will work this time. People are ready for the truth, and this is a start.
I love it that Barack is doing this. I watched it and got the warm fuzzy I always get when I watch him and am struck by how insanely intelligent and thoughtful he is. It is such a breath of fresh air after the nightmare of the Bush years (and 80% of the country thinks that they were a nightmare at this point). I just can’t help but think that people who see this will be struck by that, too, and then when they see McShameless and his “committees” and the vapidness that is Palin…well, the choice really could not be more obvious. Honestly, if Barack does not win it’s a sign that thought no longer belongs in our politics and it’s time to head for the hills. And if I hear one more person call him an “empty suit” with “no concrete plans”…..
and on top of what i said above, many voters are just skeptical that any of the campaign rhetoric from either side will amount in anything substantive (and they have lots of evidence to back them up). hopefully a politician speaking to them directly about their problems and how he intends to fix them will resonate.
my guess is that the remaining undecided voters will remain that way until the debates anyhow. hopefully that is where obama can shine.
its interesting how monday and yesterday the talking heads were all about how obama needed to get into specifics about his economic plan and really lay things out, and then after he makes this ad they’re all ‘its too boring and wonkish’.
McCain has owned the airwaves in the KC metro area. So much so, that MO is lost for him. He better start spending his $$ somewhere, fast, otherwise it’ll be way too late to make the diff….
Sure, if you like Alan Colmes.
I never thought I’d see a “Fireside Chat” in my lifetime.
I’m shocked, I tell you, shocked.
Good ad. Tries to show him as a safe, reasonable choice for president. Think part of the uptick in McCain’s poll numbers is that when it comes nearer the time to pull the lever most like to default to what they perceive as the safe choice. Old, tough (Did you know he was a POW?), wrinkly white dude with the spunky hockey mom running mate sidekick fits that image.
Also good this ad cuts through the bullshit. Identifies problems most are aware of and tells voters his direction in tackling them. Compare that with McCain’s latest ad on the mess in the financial sector. In addition to attacking Obama/Biden, McMaverick promises to end the greed permeating Wall Street, reform them he will, and also “fix Washington.” That ad should set off everyone’s mooseshit detector.
Yeah, a two-minute ad would be expensive to run, but he should. Maybe get some play in the Sunday morning talk shows. Also use it just before the debates to set the tone.
DISGUSTING AND SEXIST!
Did anyone notice the new McCain economy ad? At the end, McCain has a cell phone up to his ear! So much for Jonah and his theories…
Lets see if Tweety covers it, he spent most of last week and earlier this week complaining about Obama not providing specifics. Now that Obama has provided them in a 2 minute segment easy for Tweety to digest (apparently he doesn’t have the time to read the actual policy statements on the Obama website) I expect to see a full segment devoted to Obama’s economic plans. Not.
Tsulagi, I should have been watching the campaign ads, because if you’d asked me five minutes ago, I would have bet you that McCain wouldn’t actually put “THE ORIGINAL MAVERICK” on his ads. The mind boggles.
This ad is too long. It plays to Obama’s base, the intellectuals.
He’s trying to get undecideds. People who are undecided at this point want to hear summaries.
He needs a 10-word telegram for his campaign, and a 10-word telegram for every issue. (Think “If the glove doesn’t fit, you must acquit.)
Doesn’t Obama have any communications professional working for the campaign? They need to boil down the message.
I have no idea whether it’s good or bad for his campaign, but watching it I sooooo much want him to be President.
I thought the exact same thing.
Net plus for Obama. It makes him look serious and presidential. Sure, it’ll play well with supporters, but don’t underestimate the impact of “well, I guess I could live with him as president.” That’s what fence-sitters need to feel at this point. No way would McCain be able to pull this off.
Jeff said, way above, that Perot attracted big audiences for 1/2-hour infomercials in 1992, and no one’s responded. I say, absolutely — and people were just as derided for their attention spans back then, so I see no reason why two minutes is too long to expect them to watch now. Especially considering the level of fear in ’92 didn’t approach what’s out there today.
I agree that it makes him look presidential. The contrast isn’t just with McCain; it’s with Bush. The undecideds will hopefully look at this and say, “Okay, he sounds like he knows what he’s talking about, and he’s making good points.” He’s giving enough specifics to put the “He’s too inexperienced” meme to bed once and for all.
It is an interesting piece of propaganda work because Obama both throws wonkish meat to the Democratic base (all the facts and figures) and does the emotive stroking needed to get the proles. Whether it will actually work… (shrug). We’ll see. I’ll just point out that H. Ross Perot’s ads were much longer and much more wonkish and got far more votes for Perot than anybody expected…
I think he needs to be wearing a ‘V for Vendetta’ mask, and broadcast this thing in Times Square. That would get some attention.
(On a more serious note, I emailed this around to a bunch of people earlier this morning, so maybe that’s the point.)
I think the debates will work well for him for this reason.
Not to mention Palin saying – I mean sayin’ – the nation’s financial system “needs some shakin’ up and some fixin’.”
I’ve been in advertising my entire career and it’s a really strong message. The tone and caliber is right on, particularly after the lipstick nonsense. Good for him, it maybe a gamble, but he needs to prove to independents that he is serious and responsible and wants to move things in a different direction.
I think he should do a series of them and put them on the web once a week, saying here are my thoughts, what are yours?
The media certainly has ADHD, and normally the Americans would too, but right now they are scared shitless and want a grownup to tell them the truth. They’ll listen for two minutes.
Obama used to do a podcast when he had just started in the Senate, where he explained different issues that he had voted on and why he had chosen that way. Those were very good. I think a weekly series of these like Roger Harrison says is a great idea.
I will be linking to this on my LJ as well. If Americans really want substance, and aren’t just paying lip service to this idea, I think this will help.