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You are here: Home / Elections / Election 2008 / Is There a “Bradley Effect” For Corrupt Politicians?

Is There a “Bradley Effect” For Corrupt Politicians?

by Michael D.|  November 5, 20089:59 am| 45 Comments

This post is in: Election 2008

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Despite this, showing Begich leading Stevens by 6 points:

This:

Showing Stevens winning by a hair. So, when it comes to polling, it appears there are a lot of Alaskans who are too embarrassed to admit that they’ll vote for a criminal – but will anyway.

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45Comments

  1. 1.

    Jay Severin Has A Small Pen1s

    November 5, 2008 at 10:05 am

    I read that they switched their votes because a democrat won the Presidency.

  2. 2.

    The Other Steve

    November 5, 2008 at 10:07 am

    Look at those results… 7000 fewer people voted in the senate race than in the Presidential race. around 2,000 fewer voted in the senate race than in the house race.

    Anyway, Republicans were saying Stevens won’t be seated back in Congress. So he’s going to have to resign, and then Alaska will have a special election to replace him.

    I would have to say, a top priority for the new Congress is to strip Alaska of a lot of federal funding. Time for Alaska to carry it’s own weight, instead of being propped up on pork.

  3. 3.

    ronathan richardson

    November 5, 2008 at 10:08 am

    ha! what can we call it…the "OJ effect"?

  4. 4.

    The Other Steve

    November 5, 2008 at 10:11 am

    By the way.

    In 2004, Alaska cast 190,000 votes for Bush, and 111,000 for Kerry.

    Those numbers for 2008 show turnout depressed by a third. I just looked and that is not the case for Minnesota.

  5. 5.

    kth

    November 5, 2008 at 10:20 am

    Since Stevens will be expelled, and at least some Alaska Republicans are literate enough to have made themselves aware of this, you have to view at least some of the votes as for a generic Republican–or for Sarah Palin, who is certain to run in the special election.

    That’s a silver lining, since anything that keeps Sarah Palin viable nationally is bad for Republicans and good for the rest of the country.

  6. 6.

    jrg

    November 5, 2008 at 10:20 am

    I would have to say, a top priority for the new Congress is to strip Alaska of a lot of federal funding. Time for Alaska to carry it’s own weight, instead of being propped up on pork.

    You mean you don’t like a know-nothing from a felon-electing, secessionist welfare state hundreds of miles outside of the continental U.S. calling you a fake American?

    What a surprise. It seemed like such a winning strategy.

  7. 7.

    The Grand Panjandrum

    November 5, 2008 at 10:27 am

    Well we now have a Louisiana of the North. Congratulations, Alaska. Laissez Les Bon Temps Roulers!

  8. 8.

    Punchy

    November 5, 2008 at 10:28 am

    or for Sarah Palin, who is certain to run in the special election.

    You’re fucking joking, right? Palin running for Senator?

    /jaw hits ground

  9. 9.

    Brian J

    November 5, 2008 at 10:34 am

    When we will know the final results of Oregon, Georgia, Alaska, and Minnesota’s Senate races? What about those House seats in Virginia? And what about North Carolina in the presidential race?

  10. 10.

    jonas

    November 5, 2008 at 10:34 am

    When I saw this, I immediately thought: they’re simply expecting that Stevens will be summarily expelled from the Senate and replaced with another, slightly less crooked, Republican. I guess it’ll be through a special election, rather than appointment, though.

  11. 11.

    Boycott Alaska

    November 5, 2008 at 10:40 am

    More than 1.5 million folks visited AK last summer. Next to oil extraction and fed handout driven construction, it’s the best thing that AK has going for it. A 3K handout from Palin is nice, but it won’t get the B&B owners, fishing guides, bush pilots, and restaurant owners through the winter.

    It’s time to start talking about a boycott against tourism in AK for 2008. The NAACP has engineered campaigns like this against SC, and it works. When the population of a state decides to go against the grain of the rest of the nation, it’s entirely fair to punish their pocket book. Electing convicted felons and using their vote to actively promote a culture of corruption that degrades the broader union is just as insidious as SC promoting racism via flying the rebel flag over the statehouse. Fuck these folks. It’s a beautiful place (I’ve been there 3 times in the past 6 years) but folks from Japan and the lower 48 need to stop visiting. The effectiveness of a boycott will be amplified by the recession; tourism numbers will be down as it is for summer 09. People typically book trips 6-8 mos out, so now is the time to start talking about this.

  12. 12.

    Brian J

    November 5, 2008 at 10:40 am

    When I saw this, I immediately thought: they’re simply expecting that Stevens will be summarily expelled from the Senate and replaced with another, slightly less crooked, Republican. I guess it’ll be through a special election, rather than appointment, though.

    Perhaps. But who will run in the special election? Could Begich run again as the Democratic candidate, or would it not make sense since he just lost?

  13. 13.

    PeakVT

    November 5, 2008 at 10:46 am

    I would have to say, a top priority for the new Congress is to strip Alaska of a lot of federal funding. Time for Alaska to carry it’s own weight, instead of being propped up on pork.

    I’m down with this. In fact, I’m going to add it to the to-do letter I’m sending my congresscritters soon. Anyone else have a to-do list for this new socialist era?

  14. 14.

    Zifnab

    November 5, 2008 at 10:51 am

    Perhaps. But who will run in the special election? Could Begich run again as the Democratic candidate, or would it not make sense since he just lost?

    He’s the most logical candidate. He lost by a hair and to a fairly popular incumbent. How well will he do against anyone not affectionately known as "Grandpa Ted"?

    I’d like to see Begich run again for Governor or Senator the next chance he gets. Turning Alaska blue would be a real coup. But it wouldn’t mean much if Alaska got its funding slashed. That’s the only reason the state has any real pull. It’s a massive tax shelter and a major source of oil revenue. If the lower forty-eight choose to cut Alaska off, I imagine it’ll just go full blown Quebec and start demanding to secede every four years.

  15. 15.

    Tsulagi

    November 5, 2008 at 10:55 am

    You’re fucking joking, right? Palin running for Senator?

    You betcha.

    May take her a couple of days to do the Palin math, but she’ll arrive at her answer. Two senators ran, one became president. In her mind that will mean if she’s a senator she has a 50/50 shot being the next president. If President Obama fails which is virtually a certainty, the odds go up. Wingnuts will confirm and certify her calculations.

  16. 16.

    Brian J

    November 5, 2008 at 10:59 am

    Well we now have a Louisiana of the North. Congratulations, Alaska. Laissez Les Bon Temps Roulers!

    How about that Senate race in Louisiana? Wasn’t that a helluva lot closer than most expected?

  17. 17.

    bedlam UK

    November 5, 2008 at 11:04 am

    I wonder if Sarah’s realised that now they’ve lost she doesn’t have to follow through with her "Oh dear John had an accident" plan.
    She’s not overly bright, so if I were McCain I’d still watch my back till she’d returned up north.

    Crazy Alaskans. Though a crook winning shows how she got her position anyway. One more mystery sorted.

  18. 18.

    Poopyman

    November 5, 2008 at 11:05 am

    Absolutely. I didn’t know whether there would be a special election or a gubernatorial appointment, where I’m sure palin would appoint herself. But if there’s a special election I feel certain that she would see that as a clearer path to the White House than the one that was just denied her.
    _
    I’ve seen nothing to indicate that this woman has any shame or any inclination to hide naked ambition.

  19. 19.

    Brian J

    November 5, 2008 at 11:10 am

    He’s the most logical candidate. He lost by a hair and to a fairly popular incumbent. How well will he do against anyone not affectionately known as "Grandpa Ted"?

    I’d like to see Begich run again for Governor or Senator the next chance he gets. Turning Alaska blue would be a real coup. But it wouldn’t mean much if Alaska got its funding slashed. That’s the only reason the state has any real pull. It’s a massive tax shelter and a major source of oil revenue. If the lower forty-eight choose to cut Alaska off, I imagine it’ll just go full blown Quebec and start demanding to secede every four years.

    I guess my question really is, why would Begich win the second time around? Alaska isn’t a traditional swing state, like Ohio or Missouri, so it’s not as if it has a natural base of Democratic support. I don’t know how many more people would vote in this election than the one that happened yesterday, but assuming it’s roughly the same–the lack of the Democratic base means it doesn’t seem likely that large numbers of Democrats will rush to the polls–why would he get elected? I don’t mean to sound bitter, but it doesn’t make any sense. They already had a chance to vote for him.

    I’m not sure if Palin really wants to run, but if she does, and if she hasn’t burned too many bridges in her home state party, I think probably will, and I imagine she’d be a favorite to win. This is unfortunate, because I was hoping to never hear from her again.

  20. 20.

    b. hussein canuckistani

    November 5, 2008 at 11:23 am

    Why are we not just looking at the simplest explanation – good old-fashioned voter fraud?

  21. 21.

    Fred

    November 5, 2008 at 11:24 am

    it appears there are a lot of Alaskans who are too embarrassed to admit that they’ll vote for a criminal – but will anyway.

    Well look who they voted for as Governor.

  22. 22.

    The Other Steve

    November 5, 2008 at 11:26 am

    hen we will know the final results of Oregon, Georgia, Alaska, and Minnesota’s Senate races?

    December for Minnesota. The SoS said they’re going to do a hand recount. They have 2.8 million ballots to examine, but he said it would take some time because the lawyers will want to be involved in each and every one of them.

  23. 23.

    The Other Steve

    November 5, 2008 at 11:27 am

    Why are we not just looking at the simplest explanation – good old-fashioned voter fraud?

    I’m expecting there to be another 100,000 voters. I want to see the full final numbers. I think they might have misplaced a couple of boxes of ballots in somebody’s garage.

  24. 24.

    binzinerator

    November 5, 2008 at 11:27 am

    Michael I do believe you’re right.

    I did some canvassing a couple of weeks ago for Obama, and of the 60 or so people I met and spoke with, only 1 person told me she supported McCain. One. People either said they supported Obama, or were undecided or told me how they were going to vote was none of my damn business.

    Obama obviously did not win anywhere at 60 to 1. What happened instead, I believe, is that by mid-October there were very few truly undecided voters, and most of the people who told me they were ‘undecided’ or to MYOB were in fact McCain supporters. The fucking cowards were too embarrassed to admit it.

    It tells me these people know exactly what they’re voting for — whether it’s a convicted felon like Stevens or a shitheel like McCain. They do understand McCain and Palin are lying, are sowing hatred, are campaigning dirtier than dogshit in the gutter. They know it’s not right, and they know why it’s not right. So they just hide it or lie about it and then do it anyway. They only feel shame — which is an acceptance of accountability — if they’re found out.

    But that’s the Republican way.

  25. 25.

    kid bitzer

    November 5, 2008 at 11:32 am

    let’s see: their senator is a convicted felon.

    their governor was found to have violated the law and behaved unethically.

    it is known as the ‘louisiana of the north’ for its rampant corruption and cronyism.

    but their vote-counting bureaucracy must be above suspicion.

    got it.

  26. 26.

    gbear

    November 5, 2008 at 11:32 am

    When we will know the final results of Oregon, Georgia, Alaska, and Minnesota’s Senate races?

    It may be a month before the recount for MN Senate is settled. Last I saw, Coleman had 42.00% and Franken had 41.96% with an independent candidate picking up most of the difference. Even if Coleman goes back to DC, he’ll know that 6 our of 10 Minnesotans didn’t want him there, so he’d better think twice about joining any fillibuster attempts. He and Lieberman are going to have to start a ‘toast’ caucus.

  27. 27.

    dr. bloor

    November 5, 2008 at 11:33 am

    I’d be amazed if Palin didn’t run for the senate seat. Her sorry narcissistic-borderline ass really enjoyed the national stage, and she’ll see it as a stepping stone for The Big Run in 2012.

    This is probably the right juncture to grant AIP its wish and cut Alaska loose. They can happily become denizens of the Greater Republic of Gazprom in an era of dwindling dependence on hydrocarbons, while the Saner 48 rids itself of a bunch of faux-self reliant whackos on the Federal teat.

  28. 28.

    sstarr

    November 5, 2008 at 11:45 am

    As someone living in Seattle – a city that has a historic link with Alaska going back to the gold rush – I was stunned that the national GOP decided to pick an Alaskan politician for a national office. Alaska politics are and have always been very strange. It wouldn’t surprise me if Alaskans saw the result of the Presidential election and decided to vote for Stevens "just to show em."

  29. 29.

    sstarr

    November 5, 2008 at 11:46 am

    As someone living in Seattle – a city that has a historic link with Alaska going back to the gold rush – I was stunned that the national GOP decided to pick an Alaskan politician for a national office. Alaska politics are and have always been very strange. It wouldn’t surprise me if Alaskans saw the result of the Presidential election and decided to vote for Stevens "just to show em."

  30. 30.

    South of I-10

    November 5, 2008 at 12:07 pm

    @The Grand Panjandrum: I can’t believe that William Jefferson was re-elected. Isn’t this the second time he has been re-elected while under indictment? I guess at least he hasn’t been found guilty?!

  31. 31.

    hmd

    November 5, 2008 at 12:16 pm

    Palin can run for Senate. If she wins then she goes toe-to-toe with Inhofe for the title of World’s Stupidest Senator.

    Actually, check that. She wouldn’t stand a chance. Getting elected is the easy part.

  32. 32.

    Jamey

    November 5, 2008 at 12:21 pm

    Bradley Effect for corrupt politicians? I believe it’s called "electoral fraud."

  33. 33.

    jim

    November 5, 2008 at 12:38 pm

    Why are we not just looking at the simplest explanation – good old-fashioned voter fraud?

    Why, are you suggesting that a convicted felon – guilty on all of seven counts – might actually win an election by CHEATING?

    How DARE you!

  34. 34.

    Frank Sobotka

    November 5, 2008 at 12:52 pm

    Last I read, Sarah the Barracuda blew most of her Alaskan goodwill by being busted in an ethics investigation while making herself and her state look stupid on a national stage. She’s simply not as popular up there as she was before she became a national figure of ridicule. Even if she does decide to go up against Mark Begich in a special election, it’s no guarantee she rallies her "base" either.

  35. 35.

    bellatrys

    November 5, 2008 at 12:52 pm

    Whitey Bulger Effect: He’s a crook, but he’s OUR crook, and he looks after us too!

    Bulger’s support and community protection dropped sharply after people in his domain realized that he wasn’t actually, you know, taking good care of them, he was taking good care of Whitey Bulger.

  36. 36.

    Brian J

    November 5, 2008 at 12:54 pm

    Let’s just focus on Georgia, Minnesota, and Oregon right now. I thought Oregon was in the bag, but apparently, it’s not there yet. MNSBC.com is telling me that we still have about one quarter of the precincts that have yet to come in, so perhaps it’s really just up in the air. Or is it? What about in Minnesota? How do absentee ballots affect this? And what about Georgia? If Chambliss gets under 50 percent, are the chances for victory any better in a runoff election?

    The results we got yesterday were, by any description, great. I would have liked to take Georgia, Missouri, North Dakota, and Montana, but we came very, very close to relatively close in all four. And the increase in Senate seats from a few years ago is remarkable, I think, but I’d still like more, if for no other reason to show this is a repudiation of the last eight years. Of course, the help of three additional Democrats in passing legislation would be nice.

    This assumes, of course, that the seat in Alaska stays in Republican hands, but that is far from clear.

  37. 37.

    Brian J

    November 5, 2008 at 12:57 pm

    Why, are you suggesting that a convicted felon – guilty on all of seven counts – might actually win an election by CHEATING?

    How DARE you!

    It wouldn’t surprise me, but how can it be proved?

  38. 38.

    jibeaux

    November 5, 2008 at 1:00 pm

    I’m just going to go with Exhibit 394,973 in "Alaskans: The Cold Has Completely Frozen Their Cerebral Cortexes", an ongoing interactive exhibit.

  39. 39.

    Nylund

    November 5, 2008 at 1:00 pm

    Despite Palin’s professed love for "small town" Alaska, there is no way that lady is willing to give up her $150,000 wardrobe and national spotlight. She wants to go to DC and stay in DC.

    The thought of her being a Senator highly depresses me. At least there was a limit to how long she could be in the white house.

    And imagine her giving a filibuster? How long could you listen to her painful gibberish before caving? I doubt I could make it through more than a couple hours.

  40. 40.

    Incertus

    November 5, 2008 at 1:04 pm

    @dr. bloor: It seems like a bit of a tradeoff, and I’m not sure it automatically works in her favor to go to DC. It gives her the chance for more national press to be a Senator, but it also lowers her profile, because she becomes one among a hundred, all jockeying for position, and she’d be a junior Senator in a minority party filled with ambitious Senators–they’re not going to be eager to help her fill out her resume if they’re looking at her as a competitor.

  41. 41.

    Katie

    November 5, 2008 at 1:31 pm

    He’s the most logical candidate. He lost by a hair and to a fairly popular incumbent. How well will he do against anyone not affectionately known as "Grandpa Ted"?

    Umm, it’s not "Grandpa Ted", it’s "Uncle Ted". And I voted for him. I also voted for Obama, Berkowitz, and the local dems. I like Ted, and I don’t like Begich one little bit. Even if Ted gets booted out of the Senate I’d rather have an appointee take his place than Begich. Of course if Governor Sarah has her way, we’d probably have some other bible thumping, dinosaur riding, women should only wear skirts sort of person appointed.

    I am having a hard time with Steven’s conviction. He’s made a career out of keeping his nose clean and never had a whiff of scandal until that worthless kid of his came on the scene.

    I’m really shocked that Don Young did so well.

  42. 42.

    gbear

    November 5, 2008 at 1:31 pm

    What about in Minnesota? How do absentee ballots affect this?

    In MN, the absentee and mail-in ballots are counted along with the in-person ballots. They’re not held aside in a special pool.

    The election board will be meeting to certify the numbers they have (it might be a week or so until that happens), and then a recount can proceed from there. We won’t know who won until December, but elections in MN are incredibly well run. Only about 750 votes separate the candidates out of 3 million votes cast. The recount is automatic unless Franken waives it. No way.

    Norm Coleman has already started sliming Franken for wasting taxpayer money on the recount. That’s our Norm.

  43. 43.

    binzinerator

    November 5, 2008 at 4:27 pm

    @Katie

    I am having a hard time with Steven’s conviction. He’s made a career out of keeping his nose clean and never had a whiff of scandal until that worthless kid of his came on the scene.

    He made a career out of not getting caught. I see you are even going to the lengths of blaming the son for the fathers’ sins to absolve him of his own wrong-doing.

    It is obvious he was a corrupt little bastard for so long he came to assume it was his due, acting like no one would care — or even notice — even if he got a quarter mil in undisclosed gifts.

    Damned if a jury didn’t find a crooked weasel impersonating incorruptible Uncle Ted.

    Of course you are having a hard time with Stevens’ conviction. Denial is a river that now runs through Alaska.

    Of course if Governor Sarah has her way, we’d probably have some other bible thumping, dinosaur riding, women should only wear skirts sort of person appointed.

    If you and enough other Alaskans had voted for Begich, you wouldn’t have to worry about this, now would you? Since you are aware of what will happen to Stevens when the Senate ejects him, voting for Stevens means you have decided to let someone else make the choice for you.

  44. 44.

    Davis X. Machina

    November 5, 2008 at 4:27 pm

    If Susan Collins can be a three-term Senator, then Palin is a shoe-in.

    Collins’ campaign consisted of ads that trumpeted her never missing a vote, and there are enough people impressed by that — never mind how she voted to deliver an election.

  45. 45.

    Katie

    November 5, 2008 at 6:40 pm

    If you and enough other Alaskans had voted for Begich, you wouldn’t have to worry about this, now would you? Since you are aware of what will happen to Stevens when the Senate ejects him, voting for Stevens means you have decided to let someone else make the choice for you.

    Ahh, but you’re assuming that Begich isn’t a weasel also. If you’d read what I wrote, you’d realize that Begich is the ONLY dem I did not vote for. I’d rather have the devil I know thank you. And I’d rather have whatever weasel Sarah appoints than Begich. I really don’t like him, (and neither do a lot of other people apparently).

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