Pretty solid piece by Steven Pearlstein in DougJ’s punching bag, the Washington Post:
Actually, what’s striking is that supposedly intelligent people are horrified at the thought that, during a deep recession, government might try to help the economy by buying up-to-date equipment for the people who protect us from epidemics and infectious diseases, by hiring people to repair environmental damage on federal lands and by contracting with private companies to make federal buildings more energy-efficient.
What really irks so many Republicans, of course, is that all the stimulus money isn’t being used to cut individual and business taxes, their cure-all for economic ailments, even though all the credible evidence is that tax cuts are only about half as stimulative as direct government spending.
You really should read the whole thing. By the way, Sen. Coburn is mentioned a couple of times, and of course he is apoplectic about the stimulus bill. As far as I am concerned, though, Coburn gets a pass- he is one of a handful of conservatives who actually was in a froth the past eight years while the Bush team was doubling the national debt.
As a side note, I do agree with the GOP on one thing- I don’t understand the rush. I understand the overall urgency of the situation, but I just don’t think passing it today versus next week or two weeks from now really matters in the grand scheme of things. Just get the bill right.
Wilson Heath
Never underestimate the ability of Congressional deliberation and debate to make adequate legislation worse.
Mark-NC
I think the rush has several elements.
First, once passed, it will take a while for any of it to go anywhere. Second, the longer this lingers, the longer Republicans have to lie 24/7 and continue to raise doubts about it’s merits. And third, there’s another million things that we need to address – this is just a big item early on.
dmsilev
Pearlstein talks about the need to hire an Econ 101 instructor for each member of Congress. Can we find room in the budget to add one more, for RNC chair Michael "Government has never ever created a single job" Steele?
Actually, can we find room in the budget for several hundred more instructors, for the "esteemed" members of the political media? It might be hard to find enough qualified instructors, though. In addition to a combined PhD in economics and remedial child education, we’d need people who are willing and able to stand behind the media personalities in question and slap them in the face with a nice fat wet fish (say a salmon) every time they say something stupid. That’ll get tiring after a while, so we’ll need candidates with good upper body strength, which will limit the pool.
-dms
JL
The jobs number is pretty bad. It’s close to 600,000. The stimulus package will be spent over two years and it probably is not enough.
Thirty six senators voted yesterday for their version of a stimulus bill which only includes tax cuts. They will not change their mind, in a week, in a month or even in a year. The extra time will only allow more time on MSM to spew their lies.
4tehlulz
>>I don’t understand the rush.
I do; it’s called California. Some of the state budget relief would do a lot to keep it out of default, which if it does, well, there’s no telling where the bottom is for this panic depression recession time of economic emergency.
JL
@Mark-NC: Wow, great minds think alike. Sorry, I didn’t see your post.
Conservatively Liberal
Rushublicans should be used to rushing things. How about the Patriot Act? How about the war vote before the 2002 elections? How about any of the other things that they ramrodded through when they had the reins of power?
I agree that this should be debated but the Rushublicans are not debating in good faith, they want failure and anything less is not enough. The Democrats and Obama can’t succeed where they failed or they know it’s over for them for the next few elections.
Tax cuts are bullshit, just more smoke and mirrors by the Rushublicans. The Democrats are in charge so everything is their fault now and that is the line the Rushublicans are going to parrot until the next election.
If I were to enter a bike race with Rushublicans I would be sure to bring a sack of crowbars to jam in their wheels every time they try to run me off the road to win.
Comrade javafascist
Wilson Heath is right. The longer it takes, the more it gets fucked up just by the deliberation process. Death of a thousand cuts (quite literally.)
Again, we can thank Bush for screwing something up. TARP was rushed out when it didn’t need to be and so now we are suspicious of any quite legislative action.
LA Confidential Pantload
The longer this thing drags on, the longer the "moderates" will have to turn it into something only Zombie Ronald Reagan could love.
sgwhiteinfla
John Cole
When you are losing hundreds of thousands of jobs a week you run the risk by waiting of getting into a situation where you can not stave off a depression. If unemployment gets over 10 percent most of the economists think its going to take a helluva lot more time and pain for us to come out of this thing. Thats the rush. If people weren’t losing their jobs and homes everyday then like President Obama said we could take a "laissez faire" attitude and try to over examine ever single inch of the bill but we aren’t in that situation.
But I think the one thing you are missing is, the Republicans aren’t opposing this because they haven’t had enough time to look through it. They have seen all you can see about it and so have the Democrats. They are just trying to play small ball because they DON’T WANT TO DO ANYTHING. You aren’t dealing with honest brokers here and that clouds the whole discussion. What use do they get out of passing a bill that helps the American people? Look at the conversations going on in newspapers and talking head shows right now. Almost none of the people are talking about whether the stimulus bill will work and instead are focusing on the politics of it and if President Obama will get X number of Republican votes and if he doesn’t does that mean he fails. When people don’t plan on voting for something no matter what they judging a bill on bipartisan support is very, very dangerous.
Rick Taylor
Oh. So he voted against the Bush tax cuts, and has been opposing extending them since then? I don’t see why anyone should get a pass for opposing increasing the national debt unless they were opposing the main source of additional debt.
4tehlulz
There is also another factor to consider; there is an expectation in the markets that this will pass quickly; if the Republicans filibuster or drag this out until March, then the markets will panic and take some companies on the brink (yes Bank of America, that would be you) down, making things much worse.
Lola
The longer this bill takes, the longer Congress has to mess it up. There is a reason this should be passed fairly quickly.
John Cole
@Rick Taylor: On spending issues, I think he deserves a pass on charges of hypocrisy. Maybe that was not clear in my post.
Alpwalker
What really "irks" Republicans is that the stimulus won’t be doled out in no-bid contracts to their cronies.
Gazillions for Iraqi "stimulus" (aka "reconstruction") were approved without thought because most of the money ended up in a few well connected pockets – at the expense of Iraqis and US taxpayers.
The same could happen now with some funds sticking to the well connected on Wall St. but the opportunities for Republican contracted graft are slim to none.
Maybe the Republican plan is to do for the US what they did for Iraq. Seems they are well on their way to success.
demimondian
Milestones on any project of reasonable complexity are always artificial. However, projects that don’t set them *always* fails.
The point of a deadline is to have a deadline. If the project needn’t take more than a certain amount of time to get right enough, then set that time as a deadline. People will aim to get the project done in the time allotted, and it will be completed. Open ended projects tend not to be finished, either because supporters let the perfect be the enemy of the good, or because opponents find niggling points to argue about, thus slowing the project down.
thomas
Rushublicans – I like that Con Lib – are stalling because as their leader says they want O and the D’s to fail and they think the failure is their only route back to power. The country be damned, they can only think that if O succeeds in pulling us out of the hole their boys ‘Shrub’ Bush and Dick ‘Dick’ Cheney created they are in the wilderness for at least 20 years.
It’s regional party for these bastards.
Gus
Amen. Every time I want to get pissed off I check out reader comments on my local newspapers’ web sites. Some assclown was going off on those very programs. What do you want to bet he has no problem with the billions being wasted in Iraq?
D-Chance.
Sign now, read later.
The devil is ALWAYS in the details, and Obamamerica doesn’t want you to know the details until after he puts his Mohammed Hancock (oh… that should break a gnashing tooth or two… /grins) on the dotted line.
Rick Taylor
@John Cole:
I think you were clear. I think I’m just more demanding than you.
Singularity
Idiot.
SGEW
For fixdom –
I don’t either, pal. I don’t either.
hwickline
I’m all for taking your time to make sure the t’s are crossed and the i’s dotted, but I live in California, and let me tell you: it’s getting scary out here, with our state government unable to meet it’s obligations, which gets passed on to the counties and cities, and ends up with real people getting hurt.
Also, my guess is that Republicans are mostly interested in delaying this in order to kill it. Correct me if I’m wrong, but I’m pretty sure that every inane utterance they’ve made on this bill can be attributed to their desire for more carnage in this country so they can get back in power. Asshats.
ChrisNBama
It seems to me that the longer it is put off, the more politically difficult it is to pass. Since this is not a matter of war, where lives will be lost, it’s best to rush the stimulus and do fine tuning down the road, when necessary.
However, if there is the appearance that this isn’t urgent, lawmakers will drag their feet, public support will deteriorate, and action is less likely to happen or be large enough for the task.
Kirk Spencer
"why can’t we wait to do it right?"
"The perfect is the enemy of the good." Voltaire (probably originate – may have quoted someone else.)
"A good plan, violently executed now, is better than a perfect plan next week." Patton
We have a week, or two, or three. In fact, even if we never act the US won’t self-destruct. It’s going to hurt – a lot – with massive unemployment and loss of production/GDP regardless. Or so goes that reasoning, and it’s correct. However, delay means the pain will be MORE. And while one day is not significantly less than two days, it eventually adds up. We are now over a year into a situation that is as bad as it is because of both denial and a ‘desire to tailor the fix to perfectly fit the problem.’
The rush is because people are hurting, and every day’s delay means MORE people will be hurting.
Libby
@Comrade javafascist: I had the exact same thought last night. They lied about TARP one and the White House at the 11th hour watered down the accountability measures so they became effectively meaningless. Then the Wall St wizards arrogantly passed out the dough to themselves in bonuses and threw parties, pissing the people off.
Now everyone is suspicious of any further big spending. It’s almost like they planned it that way to pre-sabotage the stimulus bill.
DougJ
Believe it or not, I love the Washington Post. I’m glad they do the chats and the newsroom is the best in the business, even if the political stuff isn’t as good as it used to be before John Harris left.
I just find their columnists to be completely absurd.
Davis X. Machina
Coburn’ll make noisy no-votes on debt ceiling increase resolutions, but won’t do anything to make them unnecessary.
Check his record on making Bush’s tax cuts permanent.
Money talks, bullshit walks.
jcricket
Yeah – what everyone else said. The longer this goes, the worse the bill gets as everyone starts cutting or adding (ha) for their own benefit.
Pass the bill as is, it’s better than 90% of the spending bills ever to cross Congress before, and it’s important to get this work started. If nothing else quick (ish) passage inspires confidence for businesses, state governments and people that the government is committed to acting. That by itself is an important factor. One of the reasons the market fell after initially recovering during FDRs tenure is that he changed policies mid-stream. Businesses can survive in almost any climate, but they have to be able to plan based on a solid foundation (i.e. what will the tax rules be?).
But mark my words – This bill will not be the last massive stimulus. It’s probably not going to deliver enough aid, for example, to the states to avoid massive cuts in social safety net programs. California’s close to bankrupt and all the Republican minority there is doing is trying to cut spending to a level not seen since the early 80s. Yeah, that’s the ticket. The banks are failing faster than we can prop them up, and the "good news" you read about is things like Nordstrom same-store-sales "only" falling 11% instead of the 14% people expected. We’re not out of the economic downward spiral, and the longer we wait, the harder it will be to stop the bleeding, let alone right the ship.
billmon
I just don’t think passing it today versus next week or two weeks from now really matters in the grand scheme of things.
The argument for doing it fast is pretty straightforward, both economically and politically: The longer you wait, the worse the economy gets. The worse the economy gets, the less likely the stimulus package (which is already on the light side) will turn things around. Momentum matters. In that sense, it may already be too late.
If the package fails to turn things around, the Republicans will have a field day pointing out that it failed, making it likely that the voters — who generally think government spending is always a bad idea — will oppose a new package.
So the recession will continue, forcing Uncle Sam to spend a few more trillion more to prop up the banks, until eventually some sort of high-unemployment equilibrium is reached, the bad debt is finally liquidated, and some sort of recovery can begin – say, maybe in five or six years or so.
Result: Republicans will ride Obama’s failure back to power in 2012, and conservatives will happily spend the next several decades arguing that Obama’s stimulus package "proved" Keynesianism doesn’t work.
I really have to wonder why Obama wanted this job.
Deborah
I think debate is good. There should be no problem with trying to make sure the spending is timely and on useful infrastructure and research, which will pay long-term dividends. Two more months would be a problem; another week shouldn’t be. And with the bizarre failure of TARP to give anyone the power to fire those who spent the bank stimulus on spa retreats and bonuses, I don’t think the "must do it right now, trust us" thing is working.
But there could stand to be a lot more mocking of the tax cut solution when it’s pretty much the EXACT SAME tax cuts they would be pushing if we were in an unprecedented economic expansion, or if there had been an eclipse. This is just their usual generic "wealthy people and businesses should pay less no matter what is happening" then pretending its a response to the current financial situation is just enabling.
Zuzu's Petals
@hwickline:
When Arnold allows the VLF to return to its original level, I’ll believe he’s willing to put the good of the state above his private ambition.
Arachnae
What’s the difference between a republican and a terrorist? You can negotiate with a terrorist.
I agree with the arguments above – further delay will allow the Mighty Wurlitzer of the Right to persuade the nation’s ignorant (who vastly outnumber the informed) that the Stimulus is Bad Government Spending.
Also, the economy is based a great deal on psychology and expectations – if it LOOKS like something useful might pass, companies considering a new round of layoffs might wait and see.
Keifus
Well, Pearlstein complains that Republicans are wrong to say that some forms of spending are more stimulative than others, and then proceeds to go on about how some forms of spending are more stimulative than others. I suppose you could get some mileage out of parsing the word, but I’m not glad I read the whole thing.
I do agree with his thrust, though. And beefing up and modernizing the CDC would be a good investment, I think (and sufficiently terror-oriented to make any Republican reluctant to complain), remembering the scare with the flu vaccine a few years ago. Hard to believe they’re still using eggs as culture media.
The Populist
John, if the Senate votes yes they still have to work with the house to even each bill up. It may be a few weeks before the President can sign it anyway.
DrDave
DougJ:
Hopefully, you don’t find Pearlstein completely absurd. (Or Tom Ricks, for that matter.)
J Royce
The rush is because Conservative Republican America is a deficit nation and we may not be able to borrow the money to boot up the economy if we wait … No one knows when the international market for US Treasuries will end, but it’s not looking good.
Obama cannot say that, of course.
liberal
@John Cole:
Huh? The big money sink in so-called discretionary spending is the Pentagon. Coburn been voting against major increases in the DOD budget, or against money for our adventure in Iraq?
liberal
@D-Chance.:
Which is why, after the issue of invading Iraq came up, it was thoroughly analyzed and vetted for months, and as a result, we’re confident that the invasion was on net a strategic plus for the US.
Not!
liberal
@DrDave:
As a reader of the dead tree edition of the WP, I can say that Pearlstein is pretty hit or miss.
On the bank bailout he’s pretty awful—he refuses to acknowledge the justice or efficiency of seizing insolvent banks like Citibank instead of giving them money for cheap.
Though by Wash Post standards, he’s awesome.
William
The reason to rush is the risk of deflation taking hold.
During the normal economic ups and downs, the central bank compensates by adjusting interest rates. By making borrowed money more or less expensive, they discourage or encourage economic activity. That pushes against the business cycle, smoothing things out.
But now the interest rate is zero. We need more economic stimulus, but the Fed can’t have a negative interest rate, so we need some other option. That’s government spending.
If we make the move quickly and vigorously, when people are generally open-minded and feel like things are in flux, we can get people back to behaving more or less normally. But right now people are spending less because of wage and job losses, which are in turn due to people spending less. If that becomes the normal expectation, then we are screwed. Screwed like our Great Depression, or Japan’s Lost Decade.
zoe kentucky from pittsburgh
Why the hurry? Based on January’s job report we’re losing 150,000 jobs PER WEEK with no end of the hemmoraging in sight. Basically the stimulus needs to be passed YESTERDAY to try and stop the bleeding– before we bleed out.