Via memeorandum, this:
by John Cole| 81 Comments
This post is in: Domestic Politics
Via memeorandum, this:
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[…] Really Different February 7, 2009 — Richard This Is Different: [Via Balloon Juice] Via memeorandum, […]
That’s a rather sickening drop, isn’t it?
Damn. That should be blown up poster size and sent to every Republican on the Hill.
That’s a plunge. I wonder what it looks like compared to pre-1990 recessions. Probably no better.
@ Trinity: They’d just ignore it. If you look at the bottom or follow the links, you will see that it came from the "Office of the Speaker". Never mind that it’s BLS statistics based on real data and not projections– that Nancy Pelosi is a big fat meany!
We went over this yesterday at swampland and I am sure the same question will be asked here as was asked there about whether or not because our population has grown if those numbers are really that bad. Karen Tumulty got someone to do the numbers and evidently, yeah its that bad.
This is good news for John McCain.
If banks didn’t give loans to black people, this would never have happened.
I have the companion chart to go with that one at my place but since I’ve already shamelessly blogwhored twice today, here’s a direct link to the graphic. I thought they went well together.
That graph indicates absolute economic horror for millions in the future…and only a fool would bet against this recession getting far worse.
Start stocking up folks. Beans, rice, weapons and a shitload of ammo.
That chart is a slap in the face to John "the fundamentals of our economy are strong" McCain and it throws the GOP under the bus.
So, somehow, I got involved in this email group of right wingers. They had themselves in a lather last night about some gun bill. A gun bill.
We are in so much trouble.
You were asking earlier what the rush was about?
Fortunately we have senators Nelson and Collins working with moderate Republicans to make sure we don’t get carried away and pass too big a stimulus package.
@WyldPirate: I have a feeling that before this is over, we’ll all be emailing Huckabee for his fried squirrel recipes.
Listening to Limbaugh the other day, he was arguing that because the GDP hadn’t dropped as much as it did back in 1982 (yet) – this wasn’t the worst recession we’ve been in recently, and we shouldn’t be overreacting. Or even acting, I think.
Or doing anything besides giving rich people more money, since that worked so damn well the last 8 years for creating a sustainable prosperity.
The Other Steve
But they have Blackberry service in Iraq!
Actually now that I think about it, it would be interesting to see this data mapped out geographically– where in the US is the bleeding worst? And whose congressional districts are feeling the most pain? Some of those reps and senators MUST be Republicans.
Paging Nate Silver, paging Nate Silver…
The job losses are large enough to start a feedback cycle: people are losing their jobs because people are losing their jobs. This will get worse because there’s no there there in an American economy based on spending instead of producing. Two-thirds of the economy was based on consumption. So when consumption goes down the air goes out of the balloon really fast.
This is all Nancy Pelosi’s fault. /wingnut
The announcements from the retail sector about pending layoffs are pretty bad. Expect Feb. jobs numbers to be worse. Yikes!
You’d all be wise to start buying stocks now. The amount of hysteria on the blogosphere is a great contrarian indicator.
lilly Von Schtupp
This is off topic but I am watching CNN, and they have a young republican guy on who is black and the caption underneath him states "GOP-hip new direction".
Does anyone besides me find that, oh, I can’t come up with a word, just so strange and lame. Do they really believe parading around a couple of black people is going change the party’s current situation?
It is so blatantly superficial.
Based on the level of time those previous dips took to recover, this is going to be a long one, I think.
Brick Oven Bill
The value of labor in the Western Hemisphere is $3/day. I believe that what we are now seeing is the beginning of next phase of the Globalization push, which consists of equalizing labor costs across national boundaries. This is accomplished by breaking the US currency, and removing personal freedoms from the population.
The men who have engineered this really are evil, if my theory is correct. It pleases me to predict that they will fail.
It is logical that a Nationalistic government will emerge from Global Katrina. This government will restore tariffs to traditional levels, pursue oil shale technology for our liquid fuel requirements, and build nuclear power for our electric requirements.
Between this, and re-building our manufacturing base, there is plenty of work to do. North America is food independent and energy independent.
@lilly Von Schtupp:
For God sake’s, why? You have some extra brain cells you’d like to kill this morning?
@lilly Von Schtupp:
Gosh, the Republicans have their very own black people? Who knew? They just now signed up recently, didn’t they?
CNN seems to enjoy employing idiots.
Well, my housing cost is about $30.00 per day, so I guess that means I should just go into debt for about $850 a month, right? And of course, that doesn’t include any nutritional sustenance or auto and insurance payments or…
I think that unemployment/underemployment will be higher after this one because of the failure of so many enterprises with nothing on the horizon to take their place. Add to that the fact that in most states education is among the first things to be cut and we’ll find ourselves facing whatever’s next poorer and less educated as a nation.
@Reverend Dennis: Last spring I sold some funds and stock because of the dip in consumer spending. I wish I had a chart but it hasn’t been 2/3rds for a while. Bush was able to pad GNP because of his large increase in Government spending.
The Cleveland Plain Dealer tomorrow is going to run a map showing unemployment claims by zip code in north east Ohio, which will be a mini version of what you would like to see.
I always take my economic cues from Nobel Prize winning economist Rush Limbaugh.
Davis X. Machina
Bush was able to pad GNP because of his large increase in Government spending.
That’s impossible. Mitch McConnell and John McCain and Joe the Plumber told me it’s impossible, Government spending never increases GDP. Only tax cuts.
@Davis X. Machina:
And they think that sending a couple of Trojan senators over to fashion a deal on the stimulus, while the rest of them continue with their totally insane "opposition" to the measure (you know, we can tax cut our way to turning that graph around, which is almost as good as just turning the actual graph around and scotch taping it upside down).
Their only prayer for a party rebound is a long, deep economic slide with no recovery before 2011, that can be blamed on Democrats. That’s it. Any other scenario fucks them for the next twenty years, and they know it. They are pretty desperate.
So sure, that new black guy — who is nothing but an empty suit talking point wind-up-doll — is the kind of thing they have going right now.
Here’s a map of unemployment by state as of December, 2008, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
@JL, changing formulas for inflation (a component of gdp) helped too.
Ritholtz had a funny post about this. Short version was "okay, so I can understand tweaking the numbers for political reasons, it makes you look good. But what the hell is up with pretending they’re real and making important decisions based on them111! That’s just nuts."
You’ve got mail, unless Yahoo is on the fritz again.
Of course Republicans never questioned any spending that was done by Bush.
I just wanted to make sure that was clear when the crazy trolls make their appearances later.
Got it, TY, SYS.
Mike in NC
Compared to the likes of MSNBC’s Tweety and Pat Buchanan, they’re geniuses. They just did some fluff report on the Top 10 Most Admired Public Figures or Whatever. Obama was #1, but not a mention of Joe the Economist, Sarah Palin, or Rush Limpballs. Where is the outrage?
RE: Black republicans
Some people like to take it up the ass.
@Mike in NC:
Oh that? That was just a distraction to make you think the media really IS liberal. ;)
After a Republican administration presided over the worst fiscal calamity to since the depression, Republicans are actively campaigning to blunt an effective response to the disaster that has occurred on their watch. And they are succeeding to some degree at least; they’ve gotten the senate to cut the bill, weighing it more towards tax cuts than ever, they are prolonging the debate at a time we are loosing over a hundred thousand jobs every week. Thirty ears in the wilderness is no longer enough.
Since no one has made the obvious joke: you know what those unemployed people need? Tax cuts! ! ! ! !
Brick: It is logical that a Nationalistic government will emerge
Yes, logical to a fascist. Hiya Con!
"Crucify them! Crucify them!"
Brick Oven Bill
I am the furthest thing from a fascist you will probably come across J Royce.
I defend the power of the individual to express opinions and stand against the State having a monopoly of force. Nationalism does not mean fascist. It means defending the idea of a nation-state, and the concept that this nation-state should work to benefit its Citizens.
This is in contrast with many of the current crop of ‘liberals’ who argue against free speech and would move against the 2nd Amendment. These individuals support state empowerment at the expense of individual rights. Which is kind of strange.
These asshats have made the decision to let this country slide into a depression in an attempt to regain political power. Its as simple as that. No rational person could look at that graph and not run away screaming with their hair on fire.
This stimulus package is not going to be enough. It was not going to be enough at 900 Billion. But it is a start. What really needs to happen at this point is nationalization of the banking system. Take them over and force them to make the loans necessary to start things moving again. Especially in the housing market. Set 30 rates at 4% for a 30 year fixed mortgage and see how fast the housing market will turn around.
Despite what I wrote earlier, I’d draw the line here. I’m willing to give them the benefit of the doubt and assume they really do believe that tax cuts are the answer to all ills, that a huge spending bill will ruin us, etc. In the end there’s no way to know and it makes no difference. But I was endlessly annoyed when conservatives pontificated that liberals wanted us to fail in Iraq, just because they thought it was a horrendous idea, and I’d prefer not to do the same.
1. What specific things do you see the nation-state doing to benefit its citizens?
2. Which liberals are arguing against free speech and how?
3. Which liberals are moving against the 2nd Amendment?
4. How are liberals supporting state empowerment at the expense of individual rights?
Be specific with examples and name names, please. Otherwise you are just spouting meaningless talking points.
Well then, suppose a liberal said the next time we invade a country, we should do exactly what we did in Iraq. And the time after that, and the time after that. Then would you suspect that maybe they WANT to fail?
Beware. It will. Do not feed.
I believe that I am represented near the bottom dip of that chart as a tiny, green dot. I was absolutely shocked when I learned that, due to the economy, my position at my old company was being eliminated.
We are in trouble here in Ohio. And I have to say, that I am not at all pleased with my Democratic representative in Congress for rolling over the moment the GOP pulled out the hissy fits. It’s unbelievable!! The spending bill just became half tax-cut bill, and you know that in the end, those pissant f**kers won’t vote for it anyway. The stupid bill will end up passing with, like, three Republicans signing on even after the Dems yielded.
Am I confused, or did we have an Epic Win in November? What the hell is going on? I feel like it’s 2002 all over again. Only I don’t have a job anymore, and I think the President is a Democrat. It’s Opposite Day? I don’t know. But man, am I getting pissed.
Yeah, but the bulk of that drop is due to the PajamasMedia empire downsizing.
Brick Oven Bill
1. Institute tariffs to insulate the Citizenry from the realities of the world labor market.
2. Senator Stabenow, Senator Bingaman, and their ‘colleagues’. Along with Hilzoy, who banned me for using the word ‘Monkey Butler’. Long story, but those were the two words. I’d even argue that SGEW’s sentiments ring of Orwell’s ‘unperson’ status.
3. Bill Clinton passed the assault weapons ban; Obama has expressed support. Bobby Rush is pushing for national registration. So did Hitler.
4. By Items 2 and 3.
@Brick Oven Bill: Does that mean that we have to go back to the real americans, fake americans scenario. I’m not going to point the finger and question anyones patriotism or love of our country.
People need to stop watching these cable channel news. It’s mostly about entertainment than news. Hit C-SPAN.They are going to keep sprouting bullshit like this. I mean this sounds so infantile "hip new direction"? HINT: adding black people doesn’t automatically make your party hip. Especially since the other party has been doing it for a number of decades.
Sorry Jen. I hope that your situations changes quickly.
@Brick Oven Bill:
You have a legitimate point, Bill. There is a reasonable debate to be had about free speech on the internet, and the limiting effects on it from banning hate speech (and trolling and asshattery or whatever, viz. the Obsidian Wings imbroligo). This is America, as you rightfully point out, where one has the inalienable right to be as much of a racist eliminationist crypto-aristocrat as one wants to be.
After all, every American has the right to join the K.K.K. or some neo-Nazi party (you went Godwin first, guy), and the A.C.L.U. and I will be there to legally protect your bronze-age ass. So, yeah. Maybe I am in the wrong to have initially, tentatively supported the idea of banning you. Internet etiquette, conversational politesse, and pure notions of expression do no go together easily, and we are all trying to find our way in this new online society.
However, so saying, don’t you fucking try and cite Eric Blair at me, motherfucker. ;)
@JL: Thank you, JL. It’s been three months. :-(
There’s only one thing that can happen at the end of a nosedive like this but no talking head seems to want to call it what it is: a Crash. (Happening in slo-mo this time)
@Brick Oven Bill:
The Great State of Washington seems willing to wrest back the constitutionally (.pdf) (H-1028.1, 1/30,2009) granted powers of actual state sovereignty:
"The State of Washington hereby claims sovereignty under the Tenth Amendment to the Constitution of the United States…"
I salute them for what seems to be a futile rage against the machine.
Yes, C-Span. Someone on this blog recommended it the other night and I spent two hours listening to Markopolis blowing the whistle (repeatedly and unabashedly) on the failure of the SEC to investigate Madoff. No commentary, good stuff.
[I find that I would go to Cspan more often if navigation was simpler. It’s so huge that it’s a Morassic Park. I often have difficulty finding a certain hearing for a certain day or even trying to catch a live stream.]
Brick Oven Bill
I challenge you to find anything I have ever said, in any forum, that is ‘hateful’, SGEW. The things that got me into trouble was an honest discussion about the texts and history of Islam, during which is was made abundantly clear the difference between Muslims (people) and Islam (totalitarian ideology).
I believe that there are differences within and between groups of humans, based on evolutionary pressures. I have argued that immigration should take these differences into account, through colorblind standardized testing, because we want to keep demand for labor in our country relatively high. This results in a high standard of living for Americans.
I have argued that there should be Citizenship performance requirements for voter eligibility, because this makes a Republic viable over the long run. Probably the most ‘hateful’ position I can remember taking is that Hilzoy should be stripped of her voting rights based on her gender. This was in response to an aggresive act on her part.
This position has nothing to do with hate, it has to do with my observations regarding biology and the body politic. I am, in fact, quite fond of women. My policy positions, as far as I can tell, are fairly similar to those of the people who established this country.
Combine that chart with this one and you can see why we are in the trouble we are. Now read the latest diary at Kos (that I lifted the graphic from) about executive compensation and living on a paltry $500,000.00 a year and puke.
Yes we are in trouble.
[Oh man, I don’t know why I do this . . . .]
Ah. "Hateful" is in the eye of the beholder, some would say. I presume you refer to "hate speech," as I called it – perhaps an inaccurate (loaded? judgemental? presumptuous?) phrase, with roots in a somewhat contentious legal term of art. How about "bigoted" instead?
You know, we amended some of those policy positions and fought an extraordinarily bloody civil war over others. I highly recommend that you acquaint yourself with the 14th Amendment (not to mention the 21st!) and its implications.
And for future reference, citing the policies of early American politicians that were not encoded into the Constitution (or were explicitly prohibited by, no less) holds very little weight with me. Next, you’ll be advocating slavery.
(ho ho! will citin’ slavery become the new Godwin?)
Phoenician in a time of Romans
Institute tariffs to insulate the Citizenry from the realities of the world labor market.
Gee. A major depression, and your answer is to start a trade war.
Are you really truly positive you’re not trying to make America fascist, because you seem to be following the classic historical prescription for it…
Brick Oven Bill
1. Slavery is bad.
2. The 14th Amendment was well intentioned, but flawed.
3. The 21st Amendment was the result of tractors and the surpluses they created. I suggest reading Lincoln’s thoughts on the subject. He was around before tractors.
I am leaving to go to the mall.
Seriously, I am sorry to hear that you are in a situation like that Jen. Far too many people are in the same situation which is going to make it harder for you to get out of yours because they are trying to do the same thing. I wish you the best and hope you can work it out.
On a lighter note at least you can get health care for your kids (if you have any) if you run out of money, all thanks to SCHIP. Poorer people like me who luxuriate in the pure wasteful luxury of smoking have to shoulder that burden but I guess thats only fair. Or so I am told.
But hey, at least we all get to drown together. Please excuse my smoking while treading water but I figure if people can take my money for annoying them with my smoking then I guess that gives me the right to blow smoke in their faces. After all, I firmly believe in getting the most for my money.
If you think this chart is bad I’d like to point out that the current unemployment metric (U3) discounts people who stop looking or end up under-employed (part time and/or much lower paying positions than previously held). Previous metrics included those people.
So the real unemployment rate is basically double what we’re reading about (has been for 10 years or so).
That’s what scares the bejeesus out of me. Not just the real rate, but the idea that what jobs people do end up with pay fractions of their old job. Not the direction we need in this country.
I am 100% on-board with making taxes more progressive, and making it so that the massive wealth corporate America is generating somehow actually trickles down to the people. It’s simply obscene that middle class wages have been stagnant for 30 years while the top 1% of the wage earners are up 1000% over the same time (in terms of the % of income they earn). Who’s going to buy all the widgets that these companies sell if no one makes any money? And if no one buys the widgets, the corporations don’t make profits, and the stock doesn’t go up and the CEOs won’t make money.
Republican economics only works if people take on ever-increasing amounts of debt (hey, wait a second) and ignore the long-term consequences.
There’s only one problem with the graph: unadjusted numbers. The employed labour force is significantly greater today than it was in the 80s and the 90s, and unemployment rates haven’t reached 80s levels yet. I’m not suggesting the situation isn’t bad, but the graph lacks some needed perspective. It assumes – or at least gives the impression – that the labour forces for the periods depicted are proportionally the same.
Sorry to hear that. Construction isn’t doing so well, either, and that’s my game. My company is down to me for employees and I’ve probably permanently lost a couple that I put a real investment of money and time (money again) into, not to mention friendship. I have reached that point where I’m about 1 month from the cliff, again.
Oregon is not too far from going over the edge, we have an unstable mix of resources extraction and high tech and those get whacked real hard in a turn down. Those of you who’ve ever looked at a map might find it odd that a State that is so heavily federally owned is a net donor to the Fed, I believe the number is $0.93/$1.00 return to the state. My 3500 sq mi county is over 50% federal land and isn’t one of the most heavily owned. They pay $0 property tax and the Rethugs blocked every attempt to get PILT addressed as welfare. (Payment In Lieu of Taxes) This was a contract the Fed entered into at the time of federalization of the land.
@Phoenician in a time of Romans: Ah, it’s fascism to care about the American worker.
You keep on trying to compete with Chinese and Mexican labor and we will all see how that works out for you. But I suspect you live in one of those public works bubbles where you do not have to compete like your fascist peers.
@Brick Oven Bill:
[Sorry everyone. Honestly! It’s a sickness I have, I know, but I can’t stop pickin’ at it.]
1. Hooray. Bipartisan agreement.
2. Deal with it. The 14th is the way things are now, "flaws" and all.
3. And this is a bad thing? Most illuminating. However, I’m afraid that your appeal to authority by citing President Lincoln’s personal thoughts falls on somewhat deaf ears, as the man was not exactly trustworthy on questions of equal relations. Keep on trucking with the tractors, though.
Otherwise, have fun at the mall. Don’t forget to buy American.
@Chuck Butcher: Thanks, Chuck. And yes, construction is feeling the pain, probably more so than my field (hospitality).
I was kinda hopin’ this stimulus package might help both of us out a little. Like, you could be the contractor on a beautiful new hotel, and I could come and work there.
If there’s one thing that I find most maddening about the current "debate," it’s all this bluster about how tax cuts will help small businesses create jobs. See, small businesses are not created equal. As someone who managed many taverns and restaurants through the years, I can tell you why they’re hurting right now: they don’t have enough customers. Even with a nominal tax cut, hiring more staff is the last thing in the world they need right now. They might very well get that money, but it will not translate into job creation; if anything, it will go toward offsetting the cost of their bankruptcy attorneys. Furthermore, the downturn in the hospitality industry affects other small businesses… namely, their suppliers. The domino effect is something I feel is very much missing from the debate. What businesses like these need is for the credit crunch to ease, and for confidence to build. And tax cuts aren’t gonna get it.
Good luck to you. You could always look at the bright side… you live in an uncommonly beautiful state. I’ve always loved Oregon.
Phoenician in a time of Romans
@Phoenician in a time of Romans: Ah, it’s fascism to care about the American worker.
No, historically fascism arose as a result of a depression followed by trade wars. You’d know that if you weren’t Republican, and therefore ignorant.
Have you considered precisely what will happen if America, dependent on oil and overseas manufacture, is hit with retalitory tariffs?
Come back in a couple of months and that "problem" with the graph will be solved. We’re not at the trough yet, by a long shot.
BTW – there‘s a graph of the stock market falls over bad recessions including this one – basically only one was worse (guess which recession that was). I really hope we don’t break that record.
Everyone notice something else about the 1990 recession and the 2000 recession? Taxes were raised in 1990 and 1993 and you had much smaller job losses for much less time than the 2000 recession, when huge tax cuts were passed in 2001 and 2003. Of course, that means this recession must be cured with more huge tax cuts for the rich.
Oh Jim, there you go with the facts again. Don’t you know that all economic problems can be solved by 1) cutting taxes, 2) raising military spending, and 3) paying for shills to go on TV and talk about how good the Republican plans are.
Ah, apparently someone held a gun to your head and made you get addicted to a toxic chemical and that’s why it’s unfair to charge you extra for the health problems you’re going to cause for yourself and everyone within breathing distance of you. Glad you cleared that up.
Hey, how come the chart doesn’t list the recessions we had when Bill Clinton was president?
But but but…. i just saw dumbarse Newt Gingrinch on the picture radio tell me that the Carter-era recession was worser. And the libwul media person sat there and nodded their pointy libwul merca hating heads as it Newt’s bloviating gassbaggery had a scintilla of accuracy contained therein.
Looks like someone proved me right already: