Over the past few weeks, the media has flogged the living hell out of a series of Rasmussen polls which purport to show that the support for stimulus pacakge has gone from +11 (meaning 11 percent more Americans support the package than oppose it) to minus 6 (meaning 6 percent more oppose it than support it). On the other hand, Gallup polls show that support hasn’t changed much at all, and that the public still supports the stimulus package:
The differences in the polls can probably be attributed to different wordings in the questions (I won’t bore you with this but you can see it by following the links I provided).
Now, Rasmussen has an excellent track record with polling political races, certainly stronger than Gallup’s. But Scott Rasmussen also has a history of conservative activism, having consulted with the RNC In 2003-2004, self-published a book about privatizing Social Security, and been involved in a law suit opposing same sex unions (you can see all of this here).
There are other examples where Rasmussen public opinion polls are out of whack with other polls — for example, his polls on global warming have 44% of Americans saying they believe it’s caused by “planetary trends” while the percentage who say they believe this (with slightly different wording) in other polls is typically closer to 20% (here; here). Moreover, his article on the global warming polls begins:
Al Gore’s side may be coming to power in Washington, but they appear to be losing the battle on the idea that humans are to blame for global warming.
An analysis of the debate over the stimulus package at times has a similarly partisan bent:
It remains a mystery why the president was not more involved in selling the rescue package from the beginning. Letting House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid take the lead early on gave the Republican opposition time to emphasize the large amount of new government spending Democrats have packed into the legislation.
[….]The big unknown is how congressional Democrats will play out their hand. It is possible that their positioning on the topic of more government spending could cancel out any benefits from Obama’s sales effort.
This is not meant to sound all OMG RASMUSSEN IS TEH BIASED. And I still believe that Rasmussen election polls are excellent. But it’s pretty clear to me that Scott Rasmussen opposes the stimulus package and the notion that human activities cause global warming, and that he’s rigged polls to make it look like most Americans have the same position. Reporters ought to take his findings on these topics with a big grain of salt.
lutton
paging Nate Silver…
John S.
Scott Rasmussen:
A) Is a conservative ideologue
B) Conducts reliable election polls
C) Conducts unreliable policy polls
D) Is guilty of pollster bias at times
E) All of the above
If you answered E, then I think you agree with both Doug and myself. Just as none of these statements are mutually exclusive, neither should item B be mutually inclusive of any notion that Rasmussen is always right.
Conservatively Liberal
I think any ‘media organ’, be it pollsters, bloggers, TV & cable news, newspapers, magazines or whatever, are invariably slanted in whatever direction they lean. My rule of thumb is the more ‘mainstream’ or in the public eye something is, the more likely that it is possible that whatever I consume (read, listen) is going to be biased (or an outright lie/shading of the truth).
We have taught our daughter to question everything;why is this outlet reporting it, what is their track record on accuracy, who are the sources, what are the questions and so on. My rule of thumb with both politicians and media is to not trust them for anything that I can’t independently verify in some way.
Polls are open to influence in their construction, deployment and interpretation, thus polls are only as good as the questions asked and who they are asked of. Same with the intentions of the pollster and it is pretty clear that Rasmussen leans one way here.
media browski
Brick Oven Bill is gonna blow another circuit. Although this may be his big chyance to pass a turing test.
sgwhiteinfla
In all reality it SHOULD be OMG Rasmussen is teh biased. Don’t forget that the Rasmussen guy was all over Faux Nooz during the campaign season AND they changed their polling categories to make it seem like McCain was a lot closer to President Obama than he actually was. Every poll Rasmussen has done this year has pretty much been the opposite of other polls on the same subject. From the stimulus bill to prosecuting Bush to global warming. I would bet that Rasmussen had more siren’s next to his poll on Drudge than any other pollster and I bet in the next few days he will come out with a poll that is opposite of the one Gallup just came out with about support for President Obama on the bill. Notice Rasmussen’s polls also have President Obama’s approval numbers going down like one point a day. Nothing wrong with calling a spade a spade and the Rasmussen polls are teh suspect!
Napoleon
But, but, but, just yesterday Brick Oven Bob said that Rasmussen has no discernible political agenda, or some such.
DougJ
True.
MattF
Is "no discernible political agenda" anything like "no visible leather underwear?"
Peter J
The Rasmussen election polls will in the end be judged and compared to the results on election night.
Polls on the stimulus or global warming will only be compared to other polls, so they can get away with rigging them and then using the reputation they got for the election polls to shield themselves from any attacks on the other polls.
bootlegger
The wording doesn’t seem that much different. Gallop’s question has a lead in that describes what is taking place, but doesn’t appear to lead the respondent.
The big differences are in the "not sure" 20% Rasmussen, and "no opinion" 10% of Gallup, and 3% missing from Rasmussen (it only totals 97%). Gallup appears to pushing harder for a choice one way or the other, or admit to having no opinion at all, while Rasmussen let’s fence sitters avoid answering the question or counts them as missing data.
The sample sizes are similar as are the 95% confidence intervals or "margin of error". I also don’t see Rasmussen’s sampling technique, Gallop called both land lines and wireless phones.
Interestingly, Rasmussen claims "These latest survey results are very similar to a recent Gallup survey which found that only 38% now support the recovery plan." However this refers to a completely different question from the one Rasmussen asks.
Personally, I think Ramussen’s stacking the deck.
HyperIon
media HAVE
bootlegger
Some interesting polls cited at Pollster.com:
Pew Research (n=1303)
[If ‘A lot’ or ‘A little’] From what you’ve read and heard, do you think this plan is a good idea or a bad idea?
51% Good idea
34% Bad idea
What do you think will do more right now to stimulate the economy and create jobs
48% Tax cuts to individual businesses
39% Spending on programs and infrastructure projects
CNN (n=806)
As you may know, the U.S. Senate is expected to vote on a bill that would attempt to stimulate the economy by increasing federal government spending and cutting taxes at a total cost to the government of about eight hundred billion dollars. Based on what you have read or heard about this, do you favor or oppose the bill that the Senate is expected to vote on?
54% Favor
45% Oppose
Thinking about both the tax cuts and new government programs in the Senate bill, do you think that bill will result in the government spending too much money, not enough money, or about the right amount of money?
55% Too much money
13% Not enough money
30% About the right money
4% Both equally
thomas
what PeterJ said @ 9.
Rasmussen has to play the elections straight. Doing opinion polls on social, environmental etc issues allows a free hand for manipulation. Obviously he has an agenda and can’t be trusted.
Jay
I don’t think it takes a rocket surgeon to know that if you shill the conservative agenda most of the time in your polls you will be rightfully seen as the pollster version of Hannity/Limbaugh and therefore summarily dismissed by the majority of the population. (Which would make you Frank Luntz).
But if you were to only take one or two more controversial issues and skew them only, your efforts would seem more legit and mainstream, and be more effective.
JGabriel
DougJ:
Only in the final couple of days before elections. Prior to closing in on elections, Rasmussen’s results are typically slanted, sometimes heavily, towards Republican biases. They do this through a combination of wording, and sample bias.
So. During the final week, maybe 10 days, before an election, it’s good to keep an eye on Ras’s polling. Scott Rasmussen knows it’s the only metric most people are going to judge him by, and he makes sure to do his best on it.
Other than than, Scottie is a Republican shill, and his polls reflect his biases.
Update: Which you go on to explain. Shoulda read the whole post before commenting. O’course, if I did that, I might not have anything left to say…
.
JGabriel
MattF:
VLU (Visible Leather Underwear) is obviously not a problem for today’s conservatives.
For example, witness the conservative excessive man-love for "300", despite its off-the-charts VLU rating.
.
ricky
I am not sure how one measures whether man-love for "300"
is "somewhat" "just right" or "excessive." However, outside a blogger or two I haven’t found anything but pre teen boys who thought much of it.
dmac
I’ve heard a lot about how Rasmussen wasn’t accurated 10 days out from the election, and only became accurate during the last poll or so before the election. Considering Rasmussen was one of the most consistantly stable polls from September to November, on what basis do you that believe this form your opinion? And Rasmussen is consistant on presidential approval polls with other likely voter surveys, like Democracy Corps. (of Jame’s Carville affiliation), amoung others… so unless Mary has converted Jame’s, I would say that gives Scott some pretty good credibility. On the other hand Gallup is highly questionable, so why would anyone use them as a standard? What gives?