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You are here: Home / Politics / Polling notes

Polling notes

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I just got off a conference call with the Greenberg-Quinlan-Rosner polling outfit and the big take away here is that the response to Obama’s speech was almost the same among Republicans as among Democrats. The phrase I heard was “I have never seen anything like this before.”

Another point is that the talk about the bank and mortgage plans went over extremely well (contra Santelli).

But mainly there an amazing uniformity between Republican and Democratic response to the speech.

Reader Interactions

96Comments

  3. 3.

    Rome Again

    WOW – what I saw on the MSNBC meter really was true?

    Republicans are cooked.

    :) Yipppeeeee!

    Jindal’s response must have only sealed that deal more.

  5. 5.

    Gemina13

    I watched Obama speak on MSNBC and could not believe what I saw on the meter. Republican and Democratic responses were damn near the same for the length of the speech.

    As for my family and I, we’re still floored. If Obama can accomplish a quarter of what he wants in this year, we will all vote for him in 2012, come what may. I’m so happy to hear an adult speak for my country again, and state the things that need to be done to lead us out of the mess we’re in. I think I kissed the TV twice.

  6. 6.

    DougJ

    Meaning, a positive response? A confused response? A negative response?

    A positive response. I don’t know if the overall response was shockingly positive but it was shocking how positive it was among Republicans.

  7. 7.

    Fwiffo

    Huh, I thought it was a nice speech and everything (par for the course for Obama), but the way people are gushing, you’d think it was the second coming of Convention 2004.

  8. 8.

    Hawes

    Fineman couldn’t stop gushing on Countdown.

    He’ll be the new FDR by Easter.

    Jindal’s the new Alf Landon.

  9. 9.

    Jon H

    "Well that means the Tea Party people have three days to counteract all that."

    Knowing Chicago floor traders, I recommend that they stage a cigar-in. That’ll win everyone over.

  10. 10.

    TR

    Knowing Chicago floor traders, I recommend that they stage a cigar-in.

    I have some suggestions on where they might cram the cigar.

  11. 11.

    Comrade Stuck

    The phrase I heard was “I have never seen anything like this before.”

    Neither have I. I was a wee lad when JFK gave some of his memorable speeches. I didn’t know what he was talking about but knew something special was going on from the adults response. A kind of sense of relief, and at that time, during the peak of the cold War, a unity at being American. I felt that way tonight watching this speech. And if the squirrelly Wall Street types don’t get some confidence from Obama’s commanding persona then they are hopeless narcissistic fools. Compared to Jindal’s "see spot run" GOP reply it was a thing of beauty.

  12. 12.

    MikeJ

    I wanted to see these polls. Google news. One of the results: "Polls: Never been a better time to legalize pot".

    Yippee!!!!!

  13. 13.

    Martin

    Huh, I thought it was a nice speech and everything (par for the course for Obama), but the way people are gushing, you’d think it was the second coming of Convention 2004.

    People are scared and if this speech was given just 6 weeks ago we would have had the Special Olympics of governance and speechifying up there in front of Congress. Compared to what we just left behind, people have every right to gush.

    Speeches are not compared in the absolute but in a given context, and in the context of recent SOTU addresses, this was a homerun. Granted, it would have been hard for it not to be given that 3 of the last 8 involved Bush promoting the ownership society that we’re now unliving at our great expense, yellowcake uranium that was knowingly a lie, and human/animal hybrids which was just fucking creepy.

  14. 14.

    Gwendy

    Fwiffo, I know what you mean. But then I just think that I’ve seen too many Obama speeches and paid too much attention. I take his speechifying for granted. I’m also fairly used to him treating me like an adult. It’s good to remember every now and then that it can be a pleasant surprise to people.

    Also, I think the speech started off fairly run-of-the-mill and got progressively better (as is usually the case with his speeches). At the end there, he was really cookin.

  15. 15.

    DougJ

    Huh, I thought it was a nice speech and everything (par for the course for Obama), but the way people are gushing, you’d think it was the second coming of Convention 2004.

    I didn’t watch the speech and I’m not gushing. I’m just repeating what Stan Greenberg and his assistant said. I am pretty sure they know what they are talking about.

  16. 16.

    Michael

    Amazing — everyone left, right and inter-planetary had about the same (generally positive) response and STILL the bobbleheads instantaneously insisted that the GOP hated every second of it.

    I believe I heard Stephy actually claim that the Republican side demonstrably stood only once. Laughable.

  17. 17.

    paul in kirkland

    Is it possible that the explanation for the high Republican numbers is that Republicans avoided watching Obama throughout the election, and even possibly during the inaugural, and today was the first time they actually watched him speak?

  18. 18.

    sgwhiteinfla

    Just fyi CNN had something like 82 percent approval of the speech but as Candy Crowly said over and over and over there were more Dems in the polling. But it would have damn near taken double the Dems to Rethugs to get a rating that high without significant Rethug approval.

  19. 19.

    kommrade reproductive vigor

    But mainly there an amazing uniformity between Republican and Democratic response to the speech.

    In other words:

    I got your bipartisanship. Right. Here.

    Cool.

    Still, I fully expect at least three bobbleheads to engage in a wankathon over whether Obama might be too popular before the end of the week.

  20. 20.

    Lola

    I thought it was pretty amazing too. I sat on the edge of my seat the whole time and was excited to hear what came next. It was so direct without being simple I applaud the speechwriters. Republicans seemed to realize they were in deep shit since they started giving more standing O’s as the speech went on. The close-ups of them didn’t help their image. All white super old men.

  21. 21.

    Fwiffo

    I didn’t accuse you of gushing. God forbid. I was speaking of people generally; you’re not a people, are you? But the squiggles and the polls and the bobble-heads all seem pretty gushy.

  22. 22.

    Conservatively Liberal

    @MikeJ:

    That’s change I can toke on!

    Positive speech by Obama and the tone-deaf Jindal response just makes it glaringly positive in contrast. Listening to Obama was like hearing a symphony in full swing.

    Listening to Jindal was like hearing a turd hit hit the ground. Repeatedly.

  24. 24.

    Gwendy

    I think Chris Matthews had the line of the night when he said that the only place in America Obama left open for anybody else is the far right. Jindal was proof. Thank you, sweet liberal Jesus.

  25. 25.

    Martin

    Just fyi CNN had something like 82 percent approval of the speech but as Candy Crowly said over and over and over there were more Dems in the polling. But it would have damn near taken double the Dems to Rethugs to get a rating that high without significant Rethug approval.

    It was 92%, actually.

    68% very positive
    24% somewhat positive
    8% negative

    I’m guessing there were 4 options and they just mashed the last two together.

    82% supported the stimulus plan, 17% opposed.

  28. 28.

    Comrade Stuck

    I didn’t watch the speech and I’m not gushing.

    It feels good to gush after 8 years throwing spit balls at my teevee.

  29. 29.

    gwangung

    In other words:

    I got your bipartisanship. Right. Here.

    Damn straight.

    That’s what he’s been saying for the last 18 months; maybe folks will pay attention…

  30. 30.

    Cat Lady

    It’s amazing how much speaking rationally, coolly, confidently and truthfully matters. It’s beyond democratic and republican. His tone resonates, like he promised it would, when he said he would change the tone in Washington. We just didn’t know what he meant. Now we’re starting to get it. We have a PRESIDENT!

    Update: Even Candy Crowley just said that Jindal was speaking from a parallel universe.

  32. 32.

    Mnemosyne

    I loved that the governor of Louisiana had the balls to stand in front of the American people and claim they had it all under control until the gubbmint stepped in.

  34. 34.

    JenJen

    ZOMG… K-Lo is clearly hitting the meth pipe again!

    Jindal [Kathryn Jean Lopez]
    does exude a practical hope, rooted in things that work. And he forces the point that politics should be about ideas — competing ideas — and that the best ones should win.

    You can tell, though, that he’s used to just speaking (because he can) and not delivering prepared speeches.

    UPDATE: The MSNBC commentators look very unhappy and Rachel Maddow was speechless.

    I seriously cannot stop laughing. I think I need a paper bag.

  35. 35.

    Jon H

    @kommrade reproductive vigor: "Still, I fully expect at least three bobbleheads to engage in a wankathon over whether Obama might be too popular before the end of the week."

    CNN.com had a blurb from Gloria Borger earlier tonight asking if Obama was already over-exposed (but answering, "no").

    Still, they’re already approaching it.

  38. 38.

    Fwiffo

    And he forces the point that politics should be about ideas — competing ideas — and that the best ones should win.

    Indeed, I agree with K-Lo. The best ideas should win. And they did. You lost, you stupid fuckers, now go away.

  41. 41.

    Mark S.

    This was a good night for Sarah Palin.

    As crappy as Jindal was tonight, could you imagine if that bimbo gave the rebuttal? Obama would have 99% approval ratings.

  42. 42.

    gbear

    Here’s my favorite response to the speech so far from Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) (via TPM):

    I hope tonight’s speech marks a turning point for the new administration, that the new kind of bipartisan leadership the President promised in his campaign materializes, rather than the take-it-or-leave-it, we-won-the-election attitude of Democratic leaders in Congress, which resulted in an economic stimulus bill that was more about special-interest spending than economic stimulus. Bipartisanship takes hard work, and it starts at the beginning of the legislative process, at the discussion and drafting tables, not at the end of the process when the camera lights are on.

    That Grassley, he’s funny.

  45. 45.

    Joe Buck

    Sorry, Candy Crowley. There were more Dems in the polling because there are more Dems. People can change their party identification, and the number of people calling themselves Republicans is declining.

  46. 46.

    TheHatOnMyCat

    The CNN panel all seem scarily rational.

    Yes, but why are they all sitting behind big monitors? They look like they are controlling a nuclear reactor.

  47. 47.

    DougJ

    As crappy as Jindal was tonight, could you imagine if that bimbo gave the rebuttal?

    I think she would have done better. Jindal gave a very, very poor performance.

  49. 49.

    JenJen

    @sgwhiteinfla: I saw that Candy Crowley bit on the flash polls, too. Shorter Candy:

    "Ignore these polls, they’re meaningless, seriously, I mean it, they’re stupid and they’re not accurate. Only Democrats watched the speech, because the President is a Democrat. Everyone in America wants bipartisanship, and everyone, I mean EVERYONE knows that America is a center-right country. This poll is really dumb. Bush also got really high poll numbers too, as everyone knows. But, since you’re still listening to me, here’s the number… 82% who heard the speech support Obama’s economic strategy. But that doesn’t matter. I mean, how silly is that? 82%. C’mon now."

    I’ve never seen anyone in my life try as hard as she did to say 82% really is 28%, only backwards. We couldn’t stop laughing at her.

  50. 50.

    sgwhiteinfla

    Lest we forget, K Lo et al were always deriding then Senator Obama for reading from a teleprompter because OBVIOUSLY it was much easier to do THAT than actually speak from memory. Now that Jindal sounded like Lurch its all the fault of those sneaky teleprompters. Do these clowns have ANY consistency?

  53. 53.

    TheHatOnMyCat

    I’ve never seen anyone in my life try as hard as she did to say 82% really is 28%, only backwards. We couldn’t stop laughing at her.

    That’s Candy. She really thinks the difference between 82 and 28 is just in the presentation.

  54. 54.

    Comrade Jake

    This is all well and good, but something tells me that Lauer will be asking Ann Coulter what she thought of Obama’s speech tomorrow morning on GMA.

  56. 56.

    TheHatOnMyCat

    This is all well and good, but something tells me that Lauer will be asking Ann Coulter what she thought of Obama’s speech tomorrow morning on GMA in the shower.

  60. 60.

    kommrade reproductive vigor

    @Jon H: I know they’ve got a 24 hour hole to fill but if any reporting agency even thinks of asking if the first African-American president who is also handling two wars and a global economic crisis is over exposed (all together on three):

    UR DOIN IT RONG.

    Christ.

    There were more Dems in the polling because there are more Dems. People can change their party identification, and the number of people calling themselves Republicans is declining.

    I can’t find a link to the actual poll. Are we talking enough Ds v. Rs to make the poll invalid? If so, why did CNN run the results? If not, what the hell is she talking about?

    Although God knows I’d hate to imply the humanoids who pass themselves off as reporters wouldn’t understand basic stats if you beat them with a sock full of pennies. Heaven fore fend. Also.

  63. 63.

    Mnemosyne

    @bayville:

    My favorite part of that post was that he got two comments into Bobby Jindal’s speech and stopped dead. No more updates after that.

  67. 67.

    YellowJournalism

    " Watch out all you kitteh lovers, Alf’s back!"

    I dunno…I’m pretty sure Gordon Schumway would have voted Democrat.

  70. 70.

    Comrade Jake

    Kristol seems determined to challenge Tom Cruise for the "biggest douchebag walking the Earth" crown.

  71. 71.

    bayville

    My favorite part of that post was that he got two comments into Bobby Jindal’s speech and stopped dead. No more updates after that.

    It was like Klein was at a bachelor party with a big cake on the stage and then 15 minutes went by before he finally realized the cake was real and nothing nude was jumping out.

    After 15 minutes, Klein just gave up on Jindal and turned over the Bobbyblog to K-Lo and the rest of the fraternity over at the Corner.

  73. 73.

    Mike in NC

    Speeches are not compared in the absolute but in a given context, and in the context of recent SOTU addresses, this was a homerun. Granted, it would have been hard for it not to be given that 3 of the last 8 involved Bush promoting the ownership society that we’re now unliving at our great expense, yellowcake uranium that was knowingly a lie, and human/animal hybrids which was just fucking creepy.

    Ownership Society. Freedom on the March. Mission Accomplished. With Us or Against Us. Coalition of the Willing. How the fuck can we flush all that down the toilet?

  74. 74.

    JenJen

    Yes, yes, I know it’s not the Oscars, but FLOTUS was stunning. By the way, seriously, Nancy Pelosi. What the hell were you wearing? A Snuggie?

  78. 78.

    sgwhiteinfla

    Klein eats his words

    9:45 pm ET: Newsy nugget: "I’m bringing together businesses and workers, doctors and health care providers, Democrats and Republicans to begin work on this issue next week."
    Next week it is…
    9:42 pm ET: "Health care reform" — a great phrase that can get lots of applause. As for legislation…

    sidenote cat fight about to break out on Hardball. And yes I know its poor form to call it a cat fight but it is what it is

  81. 81.

    Ed Marshall

    It’s not the state of the union address, but this has me thinking. Who gave the response in 2002? It can’t be memorable, and google isn’t helping. I know the democrats said something, and I’m trying to imagine something more terrible than Jindal.

  82. 82.

    Juan del Llano

    When Bush was president, I could just sit on my ass, because a) what was the use, and b) just by being less than a total dick, I was achieving at a higher level. Suddenly, that’s not enough. Probably never was, either.

    Okay, hell, set the alarm.

  84. 84.

    Delia

    Key line from the Kristol masterpiece:

    This was not the speech of a man who even contemplates the possibility of using force within the next year to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.

    You see, his little heart is broken that he didn’t get his third precious war during the Cheney Administration. Nothing else even matters to him.

  87. 87.

    burnspbesq

    It’s 1853 all over again. In this re-enactment, the part of the Whig Party will be played by the Republican Party.

  90. 90.

    DougL

    Speaking of the Jindal response, did he really say, "maglev train from Las Vegas to Disneyworld"?!

    I’ll have some of whatever he’s smoking, please.

  91. 91.

    Blue Raven

    It’s a damn good thing Slumdog Millionaire is out there, or Jindal could singlehandedly damage the image of India and its people in this country. The titular character clearly knows more than Jindal does, and he’s a fictional creation!

  92. 92.

    Gravenstone

    @Delia:

    Key line from the Kristol masterpiece:

    This was not the speech of a man who even contemplates the possibility of using force within the next year to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.

    You see, his little heart is broken that he didn’t get his third precious war during the Cheney Administration. Nothing else even matters to him.

    So, Kristol’s one-trick pony pulled up lame – again. Can we take him out back and shoot him (Kristol, not the pony)?

  93. 93.

    slightly_peeved

    I’m also fairly used to him treating me like an adult. It’s good to remember every now and then that it can be a pleasant surprise to people.

    Notice how Obama validates each concern before addressing it – "You’re angry about x. So am I." Or "You’re concerned about x. You should be." Say you’re a disgruntled McCain voter who, given the last 8 years and the Republican memes of the campaign, is expecting Obama to come out and give you the finger. It must be a pretty fucking awesome surprise, as a Republican, to have the President come out and say he respects your opinion.

    When I went on my first date with my now-wife, I booked a nice meal at a restaurant in town. She was really blown away – apparently I was the first boyfriend ever to not only go to the trouble of booking a table, but actually take her somewhere that tables could be booked. I reckon the Republican voter, after years of going through the drive-thru window with the Republicans, just went on their first date with Obama, and he booked out the fucking restaurant.

  94. 94.

    ronathan richardson

    Did Bobby say anything that wasn’t just a paraphrase (or verbatim repetition) of one of McCain’s canned responses from last September? I mean I want to like the guy, given that we need more young immigrant Rhodes Scholars running the country, but seriously, if you don’t have any new ideas, what’s the point.

  95. 95.

    robertdsc

    If I call Kristol a tool, will Stanley, Craftsman, and Makita sue for slander?

    Perfect.

    I just finished David Gergen’s book on his times advising four Presidents (Nixon, Ford, Reagan, and Clinton) and he offered insights into Presidential leadership. I couldn’t help but smile at reading some of his insights and checking them off the list of things Obama’s done so far.

    As for the speech, I think he took a wrecking ball to the GOP last night. As Joe Biden would say: God Bless him.

  96. 96.

    joe from Lowell

    I watched the speech on MSNBC, and they had the approval graph thingy at the bottom of the screen. At first, I assumed it was broken, because the Republican line was pegged at the top, but after watching it wobble a bit, I realize that the focus group’s response was actually that good.

    I choked up when they zoomed in on Orrin Hatch. Why isn’t he looking up when the President mentioned him? Oh. "Hatch-Kennedy." When he looked up, he had one of the saddest expressions I’ve ever seen. His friend is dying.

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