As bad as it is here, it is looking just as bad or worse elsewhere:
Japan’s manufacturers cut production by a record 10 percent in January and household spending plunged, adding to evidence that the economy in its worst recession in 60 years.
The month-on-month decline in factory output exceeded December’s record decline of 9.8 percent, the Trade Ministry said today in Tokyo. Household spending fell 5.9 percent from a year earlier, the biggest drop in more than two years.
Meanwhile, worst-case scenarios abound:
The global economic meltdown has already caused bank failures, bankruptcies, plant closings and foreclosures and will, in the coming year, leave many tens of millions unemployed across the planet. But another perilous consequence of the crash of 2008 has only recently made its appearance: increased civil unrest and ethnic strife. Someday, perhaps, war may follow.
As people lose confidence in the ability of markets and governments to solve the global crisis, they are likely to erupt into violent protests or to assault others they deem responsible for their plight, including government officials, plant managers, landlords, immigrants and ethnic minorities. (The list could, in the future, prove long and unnerving.) If the present economic disaster turns into what President Obama has referred to as a “lost decade,” the result could be a global landscape filled with economically fueled upheavals.
And it is worth noting that the Republican response so far has been to basically say “no” to every single effort to help remedy this situation. This is the same Republican party who had the following to say about the recession:
– “We don’t believe we’re going to have a recession though.” [Vice President Dick Cheney, 1/30/08]
– “I think the experts will tell you we’re not in a recession.” [President Bush, 2/10/08]
– “The answer is, I don’t think we are in a recession right now.” [Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Edward Lazear, 2/11/08]
– “First of all, we’re not in a recession.” [President Bush, 4/22/08]
– “The data are pretty clear that we are not in a recession.” [Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Edward Lazear, 5/7/08]
– “I don’t think we are” in a recession. [Director of the National Economic Council Keith Hennesy, 6/3/08]
– “I think we have avoided a recession.” [White House Budget Director Jim Nussle, 7/31/08]
– “I don’t think anybody could tell you right now if we’re in a recession or not” [Dana Perino, 10/7/08]
One of the chief economic advisers to their then Presidential candidate repeatedly referred to those feeling the pain of the recession as a nation of whiners while suggesting it was all in their heads, and now, as it is blindingly obvious that we are in serious, serious trouble, the leading lights of the opposition party are spending their days getting economic advice from a handyman who could not figure out that because he made significantly less than 250 grand a year he would not be having his taxes increased, taking their political advice from a radio loudmouth, holding panels at their annual conference discussing how Al Franken and ACORN are ruining Democracy, and spending their days questioning whether or not our President is actually an American. Meanwhile, as the DOW looks like it will dip below 7000 on more horrible economic news, the grass roots movement of the party is throwing “tea parties” to protest attempts by the opposition party to address this crisis.
When you hear the wingnuts talk triumphantly about their little tea party today, that is the appropriate context (from the comments: “Remind me, was the original tea party a demonstration against 95% of the colonies getting a tax cut?”). I honestly don’t know how anyone with half a brain still identifies as a Republican or conservative. These guys seem intent on doing to the conservative brand what they did to the name liberal brand, only much more effectively. This is a bankrupt movement.
zzyzx
There are days where I think that I should just stop following economic news and just listen to music and hope that I somehow magically avoid the crash. There’s only so much you can do in a situation like this.
neil
When you hear the wingnuts talk triumphantly about their little tea party today
Such as on the three big ugly banner ads directly to the left of this comment?
Why don’t you just get rid of them, John? What are they going to do, fire you?
John Cole
@neil: Unlike Republicans, I honor my contracts.
wilfred
Come on, Cole. You don’t have to spend the rest of your life beating your breast and repenting your political associations. Stop wasting your time with these morons and pay some attention to conservatives who do make sense. Here’s one who actually knows what he’s talking about:
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/
kid bitzer
"Japan…its worst recession in 60 years."
hey! good news! they’re doing better than they were in 1948!
Paul Weimer
@zzyzx its days like this that I stop listening to the news, and put on 2112 and rock out at work to that.
cleek
on the other hand, if you do want to buy something or hire someone to do something to your house, there are plenty of people eager to help!
i remember just two years ago it was nearly impossible for me to get plumbers or HVAC people to even return my phone calls.
T Paine
"I honestly don’t know how anyone with half a brain still identifies as a Republican or conservative."
I disagree — having only half a brain seems like the prerequisite for being Republican/conservative
amorphous
You know, a couple of months ago I was lamenting the fact that ,as a starving graduate student supporting my wife and expecting a baby, that I didn’t have any money to start throwing at Dow 8000 to start a little nugget of investments. Now I am pretty much convinced that my smartest financial movement right now would be to buy 400 head of reindeer and move to the Sakha Republic in Siberia and lead a subsistence life.
You might consider it a problem that my wife and I don’t speak Sakha nor Russian, but remember that we’d probably only see about three other people per year.
If you need me, I’ll be on the first bush plane out of town.
TR
I think it’s great that John still runs those ads. Pajammy-Jams media is wasting their money by running them here, because no one on this site is going to click through them except to mock the trainwreck on the other side.
Dave
John, they don’t deserve your honor. But that just speaks well of you.
I think the globe is in for big trouble ahead. But I think the US will weather it better than other countries. The reason being that our economy alone is both large enough, diverse enough and mature enough that we could, to a large degree, go self-sufficient.
We pay farmers not to grow food. We import steel because it is cheaper, not because we can’t make it. And the things we don’t have we import from friendly nations (oil being the big exception).
I’m not saying we should do this. Just that I think this capacity will allow us to weather the storm better than other nations.
chrome agnomen
providing accurate road maps to right wing locations would seem to be a valuable service when the angry mobs start to roam the streets.
Robin G.
amorphous: Goats. Goats are more useful than reindeer. Then expand to chickens.
I don’t mind admitting that I’ve been rereading Foxfire recently.
Dave
Japan’s problems are systemic and have been for almost two decades. They still cannot bring themselves to have a truly transparent banking system, to really break up the zaibatsus and engage in real reform. Until they do that, they’ll always get hit harder by these downturns.
Dave
@Robin G.:
I already have part of my yard reserved for a food garden and I’m buying fruit trees.
Mike in NC
Mental. Fucking. Illness.
CPAC: U-S-A! We’re Number One!
gnomedad
@neil:
It’s painful, but I console myself with the thought of wingnut heads exploding when they find their way here through PJM.
neil
I bet when you signed that contract you weren’t thinking that you’d wind up running three identical ads for Pajamas Media, advocating a revolution against the United States of America. But I guess the money is the same.
Michael
Evil little brown people who wanted to buy homes broke Capitalism. I know that because Conservatives told me so.
Zach
Wikipedia tells me that the United States didn’t technically enter recession until Q4 2008.
So Cheney had poor foresight (hardly a surprise), Hennesy simply forgot to append "now" to the quote, and Perino was being artful since everyone assumed we were in a recession but no one knew until 2009.
On another note, someone more inventive and knowledgeable than myself could make a mint penning an alternative history for the New Yorker or whatever presupposing a McCain victory. My realistic guess is that the recovery package would’ve been essentially the same size with less progressive tax measures but roughly the same tax cut/spending ratio. More spending would go to the military and nothing would go directly to cities.
Montysano (All Hail Marx & Lennon)
@chrome agnomen:
I doubt that will happen. I see us heading for the future described in Vonnegut’s "Player Piano" (the greatest of all dystopian novels IMHO): a populace that, as long as the teevee works and there is some sort of crap to eat, will meekly accept their diminished existence.
Zifnab
I seem to remember from the history books that the chant went "No taxation without representation". But the current band of freedom fighters only seem to be chanting "Boo-hoo, we lost!"
Fructose
Yeah, that.
I love PJ Media’s ads; they’re so goddamn hilarious.
ThymeZoneThePlumber
Not to worry, the Cargo Cult of CPAC is on this. With a little nuke of a bad American city here and there, some tax cuts, and a war with Iran, everything will be fixed.
Stop yer bellyachin’.
The Conservative Comeback is on target.
Dennis-SGMM
Who among them is able or willing to say something like:
"Well, that’s sure a good one on me. I spent my adult life supporting a party that has played me for a chump every step of the way."
neil
The ads are funny, I’ll give them that. Like the one with Joe the Plumber’s throbbing head, that one gave me joy.
Zifnab
@Montysano (All Hail Marx & Lennon): I don’t know if it’ll get that bad. I think the last two electoral cycles demonstrate that – given an available non-violent process – the people will actively work to change their circumstances without literally picking up pitchforks and torches.
People will affect change once they find an outlet for their efforts. And unemployment offers up a great deal of free time. I can tell you from personal experience that you can only submerge yourself in TV and Cheetos for so long before you get disgusted with yourself and get off your fat ass to take action. If everyone was just naturally inclined to slip into a motivationless coma the moment things got hard, no one would ever graduate college.
Mike
"Remind me, was the original tea party a demonstration against 95% of the colonies getting a tax cut?”
Actually, the original Boston Tea Party was about ALL of the colonies getting a tax cut.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boston_Tea_Party
"In response to this, the British government passed the Tea Act, which allowed the East India Company to sell tea to the colonies directly and without "payment of any customs or duties whatsoever" in Britain, instead paying the much lower American duty. This tax break allowed the East India Company to sell tea for half the old price and cheaper than the price of tea in England, enabling them to undercut the prices offered by the colonial merchants and smugglers granting them a virtual monopoly."
A little more nuanced but I remember my Con. History professor telling me about this…
TR
Contessa Brewer just pointed out to an American Tea Party moron that the original tea party was about taxation without representation, and this is a plan that our representatives voted for.
And the moron just admitted he lives in an apartment and isn’t affected by this.
And now this babbling idiot just said he was personally going to challenge Specter in the Pennsylvania primary.
And how many people does he expect to show up to this massive grassroots protest? 75, maybe 100.
Please, please, please, conservatives, keep on doing these little stunts and little protests. You’ll be able to hold the 2012 Republican National Convention in the back room at a Denny’s.
amorphous
This seems like an appropriate thread for Brick Oven Bill or Phil or Atajnawhatshisname to come in and make some gobsmackingly incredible comment.
Let’s see if I can make magic happen… 3… 2… 1…
The Grand Panjandrum
One of the more obvious signs of how little most the the R’s Congressional caucus gets the dire nature of their own circumstances was when McCain stood up and sandbagged Obama on the new helicopter ordered for the President by the DOD. I actually laughed out loud over that and missed part of Obama’s response. Just how out of touch with reality do you have to point out something so utterly trivial?
John Mccain: As Clueless As He Ever Was.
TR
MSNBC has featured these tea party idiots twice in an hour, for protests that might gather 100 people in each city.
Flash back to Feb. 2003, when 300,000 people marched in New York alone to protest the coming Iraq War, and that was barely in the news at all.
Thanks, liberal media!
neil
29: but they’ll have to clear out by 6:45 for little Billy’s birthday party.
TR
I think you misread my meaning.
The original tea party was against a tax HIKE. This "tea party" is against a plan that gives 95% of Americans a tax CUT.
wilfred
Ok, but what about this:
It’s all of them.
Comrade Darkness
Wikipedia tells me that the United States didn’t technically enter recession until Q4 2008.
The people who get to decide (for whatever reason) the NBER put it at dec 2007. CR was mentioning it oct, nov 2007 so the signs were there.
TR
That’s truer than you might think. The RNC meeting that elected Michael Steele as chair — and, once again, great job! — had to clear out so they could have a wedding reception in the same room.
Jennifer
I love the little "tea party" idea – it conjures up images of girly-girls in fancy frocks and pinafores playing with their dollies. Can’t wait to see the Sadly, No! photoshops on this.
I suggested over at S,N! yesterday that someone should covertly troll the tea party sites and suggest that "New American Tea Party" is way too girly and they should go with "Teabaggers for FREEDOM!!!" instead.
Comrade Darkness
If you need me, I’ll be on the first bush plane out of town.
You better warn the pilot about the reindeer.
The Grand Panjandrum
@TR:
And I’m going to try out for the NY Knicks.
libarbarian
Colbert is right: Let’s go aviking!!!!!
John PM
John Cole, may I say you are on a role.
Four posts on severe economic troubles before 10:00 a.m. Did you have trouble sleeping last night?
I think this post starts to touch on the really deep underlying fear that many people have, which ends with thoughts such as "I wonder if my asshole neighbor down the street tastes like chicken." In a post earlier this week a few people mentioned the book "Dies the Fire" by S.M. Stirling, which imagines a modern America where all technology suddenly ceases to exist. Needless to say, 95% of America does not do so well.
Frankly, my mind keeps turning to Steven King’s "The Stand," which I think is the best book in the genre of "post-apocolyptic clustef-ck." The reason I think "The Stand" is a more appropriate analogy is that should America society go to hell, the guns, biological agents and the bombs (oh, the lovely bombs) will all be waiting patiently for some seriously unhinged true believer to find them. I can foresee the diehards of the Republican Party following a Randall Flagg/Walking Dude type character to South Carolina where there is no crime or dark people and cruxifictions are plentiful, just as Jesus would have wanted.
I have also started wondering at what point the Secret Service would say "to hell with protecting the president" should the shit really hit the fan. If the country is truly disintegrating and the president and congress can do nothing to stop it, then why should the Secret Service continue doing its job?
No reason why John should have all the fun.
P.S. – Just in case America experiences a "Dies the Fire" type situation, I am going to befriend me some Wiccans, some former Marines, and quite a few members of the Society for Creative Anachronisms, since those folks seem to make out the best in the book.
Dave
@John PM:
Yes, but that is because gunpowder doesn’t work in the book.
I’ll trust my .45 against an SCA adherent with a halbred any day of the week. : )
John Cole
@wilfred: Yes Wilfred, the budget does plan on the economy not being in the current freefall. We have all seen it.
Am I the only one getting tired of Wilfred’s a pox on both their houses equivalency schtick? I mean Jeebus, you read like me in 2005 when I was coming to terms with what I had done voting for Bush twice. Yes, the Democrats are not perfect, and they not only do not have all the answers and should accept much of the blame for where we currently are.
But christ on a crutch, one side is trying to stave off armageddon, the other side is fomenting civil unrest, saying no to everything, and seems to honestly think the path to the future requires little more than a judicious use of twitter and some hip-hop appeal. We have to make a fucking choice here as our system is a binary construct, and it isn’t even close, so knock it off with the bullshit.
Additionally, where were you during the Chas Freeman debate? Had the shoe been on the other foot, you would have been in here freaking out.
Your shit gets tiresome.
Mike
Read the Wikipedia article, it shows that the original tea party was against a tax CUT, admittedly one that applied only to the British East India company, but still lowered the price of tea throughout the colonies. The people agitating against the tax cut passed in 1773 were smugglers and the colonial merchants who now found themselves unable to sell their tea when faced against competition from the now much cheaper tea from the British East India company whom could sell directly to the colonies after the passage of the act.
phil
There’s a reason it’s called "long pork".
Just sayin’…
norbizness
So long as the global economic downturn puts the kibosh on those grotesque high-rise condominiums in the People’s Republic of Austin, I’ll take that trade-off.
Montysano (All Hail Marx & Lennon)
@John PM:
Let me also highly recommend J.H. Kunstler’s "World Made By Hand", which manages to be both dark and hopeful.
John PM
@Dave: #44
I know; I have read all of Stirling’s books. That why I prefaced my P.S. with a "just in case…" Obviously, barring some type of supernatural occurrence that takes out all technology, gun >> lance.
phil
That works right up to the point where you run out of ammo.
Ann B. Nonymous
John PM, Stirling is beyond Peak Wingnut. Dude was calling for Muslims to be fired out of cannons in 1997.
Also, he’s a PUMA sympathizer. He switched from supporting Hillary to McCain, in New Mexico where it might have mattered.
I’d say he was a blowhard, except it seems to be coming out the other end.
Dave
@phil:
True. But if I can’t drop a guy in armor carrying a large pole-based weapon within 7-8 rounds, then I’m screwed anyways, right? : )
@John PM:
I know. I will say that if the shit does well and truly hit the fan, I would want those CSA guys around for farming and weaving and the rest.
Brian J
I keep saying that after we’ve seen what we think can be the worst, it can only get better. I mean, can it really get worse than a 6.2 percent GDP decline in the fourth quarter, at least in this country? (I know it can; the question is rhetorical.) As eye-popping as the deficit numbers are right now, I’m starting to think people like Brad DeLong and Paul Krugman are right when they say we might need another stimulus package. What else can be done to prevent mass unemployment before the economy picks up again, hopefully in the fourth quarter of this year?
John PM
@Ann B. Nonymous: #52
Really? I had no idea, although after trying to wade my way through the Draka books, it does not come as a surprise. The only things I really know about Stirling are that (1) he was born in Canada; (2) his books are not as good as Harry Turtledove’s; and (3) his second series of books taking place after the "Dies the Fire" trilogy are a weak-assed attempt to recreate "The Lord of the Ring" in America.
phil
@dave sez:
You’re taking the short view. What happens when you run out of ammo permanently? Crossbows and halberds start looking pretty attractive.
libarbarian
Thats why I have guns AND swords.
My favorite is my Roman Gladius by Windlass steel. Ive taken that to a few tree-trunks without damaging the blade.
Then again, I’ve been preparing for the coming Zombie Attack, where head-chopping might come in handy. Not so sure about the other forms of Apocalypse though.
bayville
Watching the Pre-Tea Party coverage over at PJTV. The crazies are setting the bar rather low. Malkin says if a hundred people show up in Seattle, "it’s like a mob" – because, ya know, it’s Seattle.
BTW, Doug who is chatting away at WaPo today?
BB
And the Onion is as timely as ever:
Brian J
You know, I’d just like to mention that while I have very little that’s positive to say about the current Republicans in congress or those in the previous administration, I’m willing to give them a pass for comments about the country not being in a recession that were made during the first part of last year. It’s easy to think that we are, and while the official definition from NBER isn’t perfect from what I gather, it’s the official definition used in the profession. I don’t see the benefit from deviating from that too much, at least until it’s settled that the country is in one, because people know how insecure they feel, and there’s little use in an administration causing more alarm.
Brick Oven Bill
Submitted for the record.
El Cid
Y’all gon’ be sorry soon enough like.
We got us in Atlanta one a them Tea-Bagging protests on the floors of a’ capitol and iss’ gon’ be a damn wave of uprisin’s and protestin’ to show you all that Americans ain’t for givin’ all our hard-workin’ money to the Negroes what stole our houses and all the immigrants what got free houses from Barney Frank!
patrick
This isn’t current, but on the general theme of economic hubris it still offends me.
Governor Schwarzenegger to the Republican convention in 2004
"There is another way you can tell you’re a Republican. You have faith in free enterprise, faith in the resourcefulness of the American people …and faith in the U.S. economy. To those critics who are so pessimistic about our economy, I say: Don’t be economic girlie men!"
They ought to make this guy come to Washington in a dress with a bow to get California’s share of the stimulus package.
Rome Again
@John PM:
I’ve been considering joining SCA for a while now. I knew a few people who were in it back east. It didn’t occur to me that their survivalist skills would be helpful to learn. Thanks for the idea. ;)
Martin
Don’t forget the tax cuts!
Obama and the Democrats message needs to be that his tax rate will be lower than Reagans on all income levels. This ‘tax increase for the rich’ is really starting to piss me off. It’s not a tax increase, is an expiration of a temporary tax cut. If I buy bread for $1.50 because I had a $1 off coupon, I can’t bitch to the manager the next day about the outrageous price increase to $2.50. Now there are some actual increases in there beyond the expiration of the tax cuts, but not much so far.
gypsy howell
In other news, I think we’re finding out why Judd Gregg suddenly had a "change of heart" about the Commerce post. Did he really re-discover his republican roots, or were his republican roots discovered?
Rome Again
@John Cole:
It doesn’t matter to them. They don’t care if we end up in Mad Max territory, so long as they feel they can blame it on Dems and Obama.
Rome Again
@ThymeZoneThePlumber:
I wrote you an email over an hour ago, do you think you could answer it, please?
Xanthippas
When I picture people who would fare well in an apocalypse, members of the SCA do not immediately come to mind. Perhaps I have a mistaken impression you can clear up.
Bulworth
Remind me again–what is it these 2009 tea-bag protesters are protesting?
amorphous
@norbizness: Addendum: With no parking.
Brian J
If you are reasonably certain that you’ll be employed in the coming months/years and can meet your other obligations, it’s not a bad idea to invest some money. It’s not good that the economy is in the pits, but as Dean Baker says, the upside to all of this is that housing is cheap and that the stock market being down is a huge gift to younger workers.
I’m trying to do a little outside of my 401K, such as it is, each month. I’m mostly buying ETFs. I’m trying to dollar cost average, even as I’ve increased the amount I intend to invest each month. If I were you (and take this with a grain of salt, as I am really a novice and have yet to buy that investing book I intend to), I’d focus on ones that pay decent dividends. The service I use, Sharebuilder, automatically reinvests them. I have nowhere near a big enough portfolio to make significant gains each month, but even the tiniest increases add up to something bigger each time. That way, you’ll keep growing, even if you have to stop investing after a certain time.
But yes, like you, I think that I should just screw this and buy a shotgun for when the revolution comes. That, and bottled water.
amorphous
@amorphous: @Brick Oven Bill: A little too early. Damn.
Rome Again
@Xanthippas:
They recreate life in medieval times, doing things by hand, no power tools of course, they look at many different aspects of life and try to mirror them.
BDeevDad
The success of the Tea Parties will mirror the success of the Joe the Plumber’s book signing in DC. Eleven people. Heard it on the radio this morning in San Diego.
wilfred
@John Cole:
Fuck off. The only remaining honest position is to recognize that both parties contributed to this fiasco, not blather on and on and on about how fucked up Bush is and how now, more than ever, we need to destroy the Republican Party.
It is the absolute linearity of this type of drivel that convokes the contrarian in me. And believe me, asshole, I am far removed from the polimedia force field that produces the one-stop package store politics that you’re pushing so it is a lot easier for me to see that both parties, and their respective mouthpieces, are peddling the same line of shit.
Country first, eh?
Rome Again
@Bulworth:
They are protesting the fact that in Obama’s administration the subjects are more important than the rich barons.
I’m drinking tea in honor of their stupidity.
bayville
@Bulworth
In the end, I think they are protesting that Obama won the election.
Robin G.
Oh, God, SCA. (It may just be the area, but I’ve never met an SCA member that wasn’t a total snot. No offense meant – it’s just been my, well, entire experience.)
Sinister eyebrow
Not to get off topic on the thread now focused on teabaggery and other wingnut looniness, but back to the original post …
The economic conditions are not as severe, but growing more and more similar to those prior to WWII. Not that there would be another world war (although the Red Dawn fetishists would just swoon over that until it turned out that ring dings would be rationed) if things keep declining. I don’t think the same structural preconditions exist now as they did in the 1930s. However, the tougher the times the more people start looking to Iron Men to take control and lead them out of it. That’s the real danger of widespread civil unrest.
Ned R.
@Sinister eyebrow: That too has been my concern about it all — interesting times, to beat that cliche into the ground again. But it’s not one where I sense immediate or inevitable worry, so I wait and watch and consider. Really, it’s all I can do — perhaps all most of us can do.
flounder
Another WaPo chat, more unintentional truths being told:
Josh Hueco
OT, but Sully’s pounding his high chair because Obama’s proposed budget doesn’t kick granddad in the dentures one bit.
kay
@wilfred:
Orzag defended this "rosy scenario" charge well, yesterday, if a little impatiently.
He used Bernanke’s projections for 2009 and 2010 (unsurprisingly) and those projections are considered "optimistic" but not a fairy tale.
He used historical data after deep recessions for 2010 and on. He admits he only has two periods to work with that are at all useful or comparable to the current mess: 1930’s and early 80’s. That’s where he got the 4% growth in GDP.
kid bitzer
okay, but let’s talk about important things.
did michelle bachmann really tell michael steele "you be da man"?
oh, god–too funny if true. i gotta see the tape.
Xel
I wonder if Obama will be to the right-left power dynamic what Reagan was. In a way, I hope not – I think the right has fucked up somewhat worse than the left did from, say, 1964-80 and I don’t want Obama (who is more truthful and politically sane than Reagan) to herald in a slow decline into the same hubris and excesses we’ve seen in the right since 1980 (partially because it would just mean that the pendulum would just swing right again by the same magnitude, partially because it would not be very good for America and the world to not have a sceptical and careful party in reign of the US).
El Cid
Back then (1920s and 1930s) we were a much, much, much poorer and less developed society.
Fully 1/3 of the nation as a geographically coherent region, the American South, was an underdeveloped bastion of export-oriented industrialization and agricultural primary products, along with an absolutely primitive infrastructure, when even the full-time workers were literally starving each day they worked, and simple diseases of faulty public health origin were rampant.
We’re not the society we were then. We’re experience relative deprivation, relative suffering — as do all developed industrial societies when they suffer economic setbacks, yet still can’t directly be compared to some other third world nation in completely different circumstances.
But it just doesn’t help a whole lot of people a lot right now to remember that at least they’re not just staring blankly at a dust-blown patch of empty land and no road, that they lost a job but are still living somewhere with plumbing, etc.
John S.
Cole-
Have you read or heard about the ransom letter from Deutsche Bank? If not, this report from NPR will blow your fucking mind:
Just when I think these fucking assholes couldn’t possibly have any more chutzpah…
El Cid
@Josh Hueco: What the hell is wrong with him?
wilfred
@kay:
You know, after Vietnam, Y2K, Iraq and now this, just to name a few, I feel that civics demands skepticism, however offensive it may be to Cole’s bedwetting need for what the Germans used to call the feel of cloth.
On another thread I posted several links to people with better qualfications and more skepticism. There’s plenty of stuff out there
I don’t do lemming.
Comrade Dread
I’m thinking of joining the Amish myself.
BDeevDad
@Josh Hueco: Someone should point Sully to this.
OMG he is actually doing what he said he would.
Brian J
As I was flipping by Fox to get to MSNBC last night as I went to bed, I saw Michael Steele on the show of the Leader of the Insurrection, Sean Hannity, talking about all of the "bling, bling" in the stimulus bill. I really, really hope he keeps this up, because he will continue to look like an idiot to anybody who is a position of power and look like a fool to anybody who is even remotely in tune with popular culture.
Martin
Any real man should have a solid assortment of effective weapons at their disposal anyway – axes, sledges, chainsaws, and the like. And when you aren’t fighting off the tea party secessionists you can plant a nice tree for your wife and make a treehouse for your kids.
Dave
@phil:
That’s why you have to have a press. You figure in population decrease and I think it’d be a while before ammo ran out.
By that time, hopefully civilization is back on its feet.
libarbarian
ZOMBIE ATTACK!!!
Its coming.
Dave
@Martin:
I have that as well. I just figure you use the expendable stuff first.
John S.
Except when the pied piper of anti-semitism plays a tune…
kay
@flounder:
Poor Orzag. I felt for him. Three reporters repeated the Republican line that he’s raising taxes on the rich during a recession. Three separate times he reminded them to look at the elaborate plan he had slaved over, and that they had "read". The tax cuts expire, and his projection has us in recovery by then. I was washing my dining room floor while listening, and I got it. They’re paid to listen to him.
The third time he said "that’s just not true". I was laughing.
Mike in NC
The cable news networks are really pushing the Tea Party Protests. I understand that tens of thousands of people have already taken to the streets of many cities and are setting fire to buses and smashing storefront windows.Or something…
Mike in NC
Eric Cantor, please pick up the white courtesy phone.
John Cole
Me:
Wilfred:
Then, after being explained why the budget projection is the way it is, Wilfred Godwins himself:
Blow it out your ass with your contrarian bullshit.
Martin
The SCAs I know pretty much limit themselves to wearing armor and playing D&D. Good people, but when the shit hits the fan, they’re hosed. First tree they tried to cut down would land on them. They’re in SCA mainly to justify their desire to buy a sword.
I think that would be a better move. When it comes time to kill a chicken, they wouldn’t stand around for 2 hours waiting for someone else to volunteer.
Josh Hueco
It took two years for Sully to sour on the Bush administration, but he’s pulling his spurned lover act over Obama in less than six weeks. Go figure.
Martin
You know, only an asshole tells someone to fuck off on their blog. You got a problem with what he says, either do it with what passes for civil discourse here (and talk about a low bar) or piss off and go fuck a tree.
gnomedad
Another Canadian?
libarbarian
Exactly.
I’ve never known an SCA member who knew much about "survival". They were live-action-roleplayers and nothing else.
JohnR
Things were bad enough when I left the GOP over that asinine and revolting, sanctimonious Clinton circle-jerk; it has been obvious to the most half-witted voter (by which I mean 70% of the American electorate) for well over 5 years now that the GOP is in fact a completely bankrupt party. The platform presently espoused by the national GOP makes the Khmer Rouge or the NSDAP look like deep thinkers. Sure, there are conservatives who think and reason, but I doubt very much that there’s anyone like that in the Republican Party any more (and damn few in the Democratic Party, for that matter). I came to the conclusion a year or so ago that there is no practical way to rebuild the GOP, and it should be allowed to go the way of the Whigs and the Know-Nothings. It’s not re-branding to go back to the roots and try to build a new political party based on principles that go beyond hate and greed. Perhaps a good place to start would be to read this book I’ve heard so much about – it’s an interesting teaching manual called the Bible that covers a lot of ground in how to lead a good and righteous life. From what I can see, it appears to be almost forgotten, especially among most of the loudly self-proclaimed "Christians".
J. Michael Neal
As someone who suffers from mental illness, I take offense at this.
gwangung
Yeah, really.
What REALLY takes stones is to tell Cole to fuck off in polite terms AND MAKE HIM AGREE WITH YOU.
John Cole
@Martin: At this point, considering my track record of horrible political decisions, I think being told to fuck off periodically and then told why is precisely what I need. So no need to get defensive.
Chris Andersen
@kid bitzer:
In 1948 their manufacturing base and inventories had no where to go but up. Ideal conditions for a recovery.
Shinobi
The Chicago Tea Party thing is right around the corner from my office. I may go catch the end of it and take photos with my cell phone camera. There were about 250 people on their facebook group. I’m pretty sure that the palestinians protesting the jewish federation regularly draw twice that many people.
Dave
As much as the Teabaggers are getting play on television, I don’t see a word of them online at any major news site.
No Malkin, PJTV is not a major news site, seeing as it is not major nor does it contain what we would consider news.
Martin
And that’s a reasonable expectation as 4% would only bring us back to baseline over that time period. Assuming something about our population hasn’t fundamentally changed over that time, just getting productivity back to historic levels should generate that GDP growth. Just getting people back to work will do most of it. The only thing that seems particularly rosy about it is how soon employment will pick up. I think the stimulus plan will work, but I’m still worried about the banks and some of the core industries that seem perpetually fucked (automakers, etc).
Chris Andersen
@Zach:
Link please. My understanding is that this recession "officially" started in either Q1 or Q2 or 2008. It wasn’t until Q4, however, that it was recognized "officially" as a recession (i.e., two consecutive quarters of negative GDP).
Shinobi
I thought the recession started in Q4 2007. It did, here is the NBER Statement from the WSJ.
kay
@wilfred:
Right. Okay. I listened to his analysis of his numbers, though, wilfred, and it didn’t read like you did. I apologize if you did.
You’re reading the state side numbers and then the opposition analysis, using those numbers. The state side analysis is what Orzag offered yesterday. I think you need both.
John Cole
@Martin: I don’t think the stimulus plan will work as a stimulus, I look at it as more a disaster relief program than a stimulus plan. I just don’t think there is much we can do in the way of stimulus until the bank and financial BS is sorted out and there is some basic confidence in Wall Street. I understand why it is called the stimulus plan, though- because calling it the “Oh shit brace yourself this is going to hurt here are some food stamps in the interim” plan would have been very easy to sell.
I still think we have not seen the worst. The CDO shit that many of you were talking about years ago in the comments is bigger than anyone is mentioning, and if memory serves correctly, don’t we still have a lot of bad loans that will be coming up in the next year or so?
I just don’t think we are anywhere near the bottom.
kay
@Martin:
It was 10%, post-Great Depression, for a period. I had no idea.
Chris Andersen
@Mike:
What’s fascinating about this is that that "tax cut" was, in essence, a subsidy by the British Government for the East India Corporation. In other words, it was the 18th century equivalent of corporate welfare.
So, the original Tea Party was a protest against government giving to many favors to corporations.
Montysano
@wilfred:
First of all, I’m not seeing anyone on this blog that doesn’t recognize the complicity on both sides. That being said: for 14 of the last 16 years, the GOP ruled Congress with an iron fist. During 8 years of owning the White House, the swaps market was allowed to grow like a cancer, and Paulson succeeded in allowing the investment banks to leverage at 30:1. No oversight, no governance, no one steering the ship.
So I feel very comfortable in saying that "Bush did it". They ran the show, allowed no dissent within their ranks, crushed the Dems at every opportunity, and took us to where we find ourselves today.
Wile E. Quixote
@JohnR
Republicans! Fuck me. I mean, say what you like about the tenets of National Socialism, Dude, at least it’s an ethos.
Chris Andersen
@Rome Again:
I considered it several years back, but gave up on the idea after a few encounters with period snobs. These are the people who not only put on the clothes and speak the speak, but also actively look down with disdain on anyone else who doesn’t go "all in" like they do.
Martin
It’s rude – even for this blog. Mind you, I reserve the right to tell anyone but the top pagers to fuck off. I appreciate more than most people the value of being told that I’m wrong – and I actually value that openness to a very large degree but a little courtesy to the host is always appropriate, and ‘fuck off’ is the same attempt to end dialogue that calling something ‘evil’ is. If he doesn’t want to hear your opinion any more, his only option is to leave.
Dave
@Wile E. Quixote:
What’s a Republican, Wile?
CalD
Shorter Michael Klare: You’re all doomed!
Isn’t it amazing how an entire society (or at least a large percentage of it’s most vocal members) can go from bovine obliviousness straight to diving-under-furniture-freaking-the-f**k-out about a thing without so much as waving at appropriately concerned as they speed by?
Not to say I’m not among the 54% who doubt we’ve seen the bottom of this, or even that the bottom might not end up looking a lot worse than anything we’ve seen yet. I just tend to think that there probably is one, down there somewhere. In fact, my own hopes of finally seeing the spontaneous wave of seeing CEO/CFO lynchings that I have been confidently been predicting for the last 10 years or so are actually starting to fade a little at this point. But perhaps I’m just giving up too soon.
In any case, with any luck we should at least finally manage to knock the cult of MBA infallibility back a few steps out of all this. That would be both refreshing and good for business.
Dennis-SGMM
@wilfred:
Your inclusion of Y2K in false panics is egregious bullshit. I was working for a large ISP back in those days and, when our software engineers became aware that some of our core programs were not able to handle the transition to the new date, we began a two-year review, re-write and patch down to the level of employee workstations. We weren’t the only company that did it. That’s why nothing happened.
You might take the time and trouble to know what you’re talking about before you indulge your thumbsucking need for smugly superior contrarianism.
Chris Andersen
@John Cole:
I concur. The way I visualize it is that we are in a boat that has gotten old and rickety and then had a massive hole blown in its side. We need to build a new boat, but, in the meantime, we need a patch to block the whole and someone to man the pump to keep the water from flowing in to fast.
The "stimulus" plan is the patch. The bank plan is the pump. Obama’s budget is the first stab at building the new boat.
Wile E. Quixote
@Rome Again:
I was going to join until I found out that they weren’t interested in re-enacting the Battle of Kursk, just a bunch of boring medieval horseshit that didn’t involve tanks. Every time someone mentions the SCA I’m reminded of this classic article from The Onion.
Comrade Mary, Would-Be Minion Of Bad Horse
I’ve found that a subset of SCAdians, mostly ex-military and some of those authenticity mavens ("period snobs"), could probably fend well enough under survivalist conditions. And a hell of a lot would be left weeping in their t-tunics.
I just reread The Doomsday Book by Connie Willis last week. Much of my reading was done shivering at bus stops while in transit to various parts of Toronto, so the constant descriptions of cold and chillblained hands hit home. The sheer misery of day to day life for even the upper class of those times still boggles the mind.
Rome Again
@Martin:
Depends on which kingdom you reside in.
I’ve researched both the kingdom for the territory I used to reside in (in FL) and the one I reside in now, and they are both very active in the medieval workings.
Montysano
Via Krugman’s blog, Mitch McConnell accidentally tells the truth:
kay
@Montysano:
I’m not accepting Wilfred’s lecture. I blamed Bill Clinton at the time, loud and long, and I still blame him, for his part in this long, slow, Greenspan-led lurch Right. I was sick to death of Clinton by the time his term ended, and it had nothing to do with his personal life. I felt he abandoned the same working class Democrats who got him elected. I got up early election day 2000 and had to make a list of reasons before I could pull the lever for Gore and Leiberman, because I knew Leiberman was a self-serving, sanctimonious fraud, and I knew only the campaign sales rhetoric about Bush. Gore pulled it out, but I wasn’t happy about my choices. If it weren’t for the Supreme Court appointments issue, I would have stayed home.
Comrade Mary, Would-Be Minion Of Bad Horse
Rome Again — Trinovantia? Did you ever go to Pennsic? Did you bring an inflatable dragon?
#cough# Carry on, people. Nothing to see here.
wilfred
@Martin:
Fuck off.
@Dennis-SGMM:
Oh, that explains the pervasive END OF LIFE AS WE KNOW IT hysteria that ended up costing taxpayers – how much was it? It was the informatic equivalent of yellowcake.
It’s the hysteria that kills, not the problem itself. The brainless panic that stifles healthy skepticism and creates funnel thinking that excretes the type of nonsense that passes for informed opinion.
Again, the solution offered to the American people is the following: give their money to banks, who can then lend that same money back to them at interest and use the points to stay in a business they’ve already proved they don’t belong in.
If you don’t question that, you’re an idiot. If you do question it and accept it because you can’t think of anything better, you’re an idiot and a slave.
Now fuck off.
amorphous
@Shinobi:
Don’t do it, that’s the IRL-equivalent of feeding the trolls. I would suggest, however, finding a nice roll of foil and crafting about a dozen hats to distribute as a sign of goodwill.
Wile E. Quixote
@Dave
The more I look at it the more I feel that the Republican party is like the nihilists in The Big Lebowski in the scene where they’ve torched the Dude’s car and then whine about how unfair it is that they’re not getting any ransom money, even though they don’t have a hostage.
Dennis-SGMM
Willis is a gem. I’ve never been able to understand how she could be the author of both Doomsday Book and To Say Nothing of the Dog.
Her newest book went to the publisher in November so I’m hoping to see it on the shelves soon.
Martin
I wonder if 200 years from now there will be groups of people re-enacting WWII battles in their recreated fossil-fuel powered tanks and heat-managed flamethrowers and noodling over how difficult life must have been back in the 20th century.
Assuming the tea-bag revolution doesn’t succeed and send us back to a country looking like 16th century Spain.
John S.
Says the guy hyperventilating and screeching "Fuck off!" at everyone.
Ash Can
OT, but in the wake of all this economic gloom and doom, you all might appreciate a chuckle right about now:
Bobby Jindal is backpedaling on his Katrina/Democratic sherriff story.
Whoopsie.
(For those of you unfamiliar with all the details, TPM did a little digging shortly after Jindal’s speech and determined that the Katrina story smelled, uh, peculiar.)
(h/t GOS)
Josh Hueco
I’m reminded of George Carlin’s remark that Civil War re-enactors should use live ammunition.
jenniebee
@Wile E. Quixote: I see your Civil War Enthusiasts Burn Atlanta to the Ground and I raise you Society for Creative Anachronism Seizes Control of Russia
Comrade Darkness
it’s not a bad idea to invest some money.
Fearful when others are bold.
Bold when others are fearful.
–Warren Buffet
Rome Again
@Comrade Mary, Would-Be Minion Of Bad Horse:
No, Mary. I said I knew people who were involved, I’ve never attended any events myself. I’ve considered attending. I originally wanted to study heraldry with SCA, but, I might need to adjust that to something more life sustaining instead, like making my own clothing, or food storage.
TenguPhule
Says the Hamas mouthpiece.
Wile E. Quixote
@Wilfred
Sounds to me like you’re one of the dingbats who bought into all of James Howard Kunstler’s Y2K bullshit and ended up with a bunch of drums of rice and beans and distilled water that lost all of their value at 12:01 am on 1 JAN 2000.
I work in IT and nobody in the industry who knew anything was in the kind of panic that dolts like Kunstler were. Unlike Iraq and Vietnam the fear-mongering that accompanied Y2K was largely a private sector phenomenon conducted by apocalyptarian dipshits who were looking to either stroke their egos or cash in.
TenguPhule
"Sometimes your only purpose in life is to serve as warning to others."
Comrade Darkness
I felt he abandoned the same working class Democrats who got him elected.
Thank you, yes. Clinton was dead center when we badly needed a counterbalancing to the previous 12 years of Reaganomics. The right screaming left wing nutcase at him all the time could very well have been a beautiful cover for keeping the left happy that he was pissing off the right and therefore must be doing something useful.
Sadly. Not.
Sam Simple
Mike, upthread at post 28, beat me to it, but to put a finer point on his post: The Boston Tea Party was not about the American colonists being taxed too heavily by the British crown. It was a protest against the East India Company, a precursor of today’s multinational corporations, getting an unfair tax break from the government.
In other words, it was a populist revolt against corporate tax breaks, not a protest against high taxes on individuals. Our retarded conservative friends don’t even get that. Click here for more information:
http://www.boston-tea-party.org/economic-causes.html
Better yet, read Howard Zinn’s "A People’s History of the United States".
Jay in Oregon
@Rome Again:
I actually went to SCA events for 2 or 3 years, and you’re painting with a broad brush. It’s a nationwide coalition of smaller affiliated organizations, and each one has its own style.
The SCA describes itself as "re-creation, not re-enactment". I’ve seen people drive up in a truck, unload their stuff for their campsite, and drive away (or cover it up with a tarp to blend in). While people walk around with steins or mugs clipped to their belts, it’s a safe bet that their kids are drinking a Diet Coke or Hi-C back at the camp. I had a friend who was picked for an honor guard for a fancy event who kept his pager on his belt. The crafting nerds — and I use that term with much affection — will debate whether you have to hand-sew a recreation of a 15th-century dress in order to be "period", or if it’s OK to use a sewing machine.
There are definitely people who really get into the spirit of it, and there are people who just want to hang out, drink mead, and try to score with women who are falling out of their bodices or guys going "regimental" in their kilts. (Not that I know anything about that. *ahem*) The people I hung out with used to say there were two SCAs; the "Society for Compulsory Accuracy", and the "Society for Consenting Adults".
Robin G.
@Martin: Hey, now, don’t drag the LARPing D&Ders into this. We understand fully that our skills are pretty much limited to beating at each other with foam swords — and the SCAers I know wouldn’t touch the LARPers with a ten foot pole. (After all, the LARPers frequently use sewing machines for their costumes. For shame, I tell you. For shame.)
On the plus side, we can build really kickass fires from only one match. So at least our supplies will last awhile. And we can always throw 20-sided dice at people. That really stings.
Dennis-SGMM
@Wile E. Quixote:
Exactly: there was a problem to be solved, and that was all. There was a date-certain, months in advance of 2K, that had to be met but no one ran screaming through the company with his or her hair on fire.
Dennis-SGMM
@Jay in Oregon:
I heard that all of the hard-core SCA’s perished in an authentic re-creation of the Black Plague.
Napoleon
@Wile E. Quixote:
I had a board game named that back in the 70s.
John PM
@libarbarian: #107
Are you telling me that something I read in a work of fiction may not be true? Oh, the horror!
John PM
BTW, I apologize for turning part of this thread into an in-depth discussion about the SCA. Really, my mention was just a throw-away line.
Ned R.
@Napoleon: I had a board game named that back in the 70s.
That was one long title for a board game.
Rome Again
@Jay in Oregon:
I know this Jay. I have studied the websites for the kingdoms I lived/live in and both were considered to be seats of the king (not baronys) and very serious. Both websites were very elaborate, with a lot of skill-sets offered for learning.
I also stated above that they "recreate". I never called it re-enactment at all.
While I haven’t been a part of it, I know others who have. I have been told quite a lot about the experience, and, as I said, I’ve studied the websites. I do realize that the pepsi can, denim, sneakers and various bits of modern life will make appearances.
plus C
edit- maybe I should have read the original post.
Steeplejack
@Napoleon:
"Boring Medieval Horseshit"? I had that game!
After Risk and the Avalon Hill games I was in danger of going full-on nerd, but BMH was so bad it got me out of the basement and involved with sports and girls. Allah be praised.
Napoleon
@Steeplejack:
Avalon Hill, that is who made the game I was talking about.
Wile E. Quixote
@JennieBee
Oh yeah! Well I see your Society for Creative Anachonism Seizes Control of Russia and I raise you Re-enactors Fight Battle of the Bulge. Hah!
After reading the first paragraph of this article does anyone else think that this guy’s son is kind of a dick?
"Ha, ha, ha! Dad, you should have seen your face! Man, I thought you were going to shit yourself before I told you that they were Americans."
HyperIon
@John S.: i heard that, too. But ya know, in some ways I understand what the guy is saying.
I recall when Paulson was claiming "Taxpayers might even make money on the bailout". Right. Another case of "Tell them what they want to hear." That aspect of BS is missing from this analysis. And guess what, it pisses a lot of people to hear someone say "Taxpayers lose in every scenario." But it could be true.
binzinerator
@wilfred:
Can you remind me which nation we invaded as a result of the Y2K hysteria?
Can you remind me also of how many hundreds of thousands of people were killed as an end result of the Y2K hysteria?
Surely the numbers must be comparable to, say, the hundreds of thousands of people who were killed as a result of the hysteria over Iraqi WMDs.
John S.
@Hyperlon:
Like the gobsmacked British economist, I appreciate the guy’s refreshing honesty. The part I don’t agree with is where the bank gets everything THEY want and the taxpayers get fucked. If there is going to be pain – no matter what – then let the taxpayers get everything WE want, and let the banks get fucked. Live by the ‘free market’, die by the ‘free market’.
The invisible hand of the market is coming to bitch slap a lot of banks, and I’m not inclined to be their human shield.
Glocksman
@Brian J:
Invest in boxes of .22LR ammunition.
A 100 round box of CCI Mini-Mags will be worth more than gold during the Revolution.
Reloading components (primers, brass, bullets, powder, and cases) are also something to consider purchasing for future use.
raholco
Santelli’s Tea Party appears to be a GOP astroturf campaign:
http://www.playboy.com/blog/2009/02/backstabber.html
Last week, CNBC correspondent Rick Santelli rocketed from being a little-known second-string correspondent to a populist hero of the disenfranchised, a 21st-century Samuel Adams, the leader and symbol of the downtrodden American masses suffering under the onslaught of 21st century socialism and big government. Santelli’s “rant” last-week calling for a “Chicago Tea Party” to protest President Obama’s plans to help distressed American homeowners rapidly spread across the blogosphere and shot right up into White House spokesman Robert Gibbs’ craw, whose smackdown during a press conference was later characterized by Santelli as “a threat” from the White House. A nationwide “tea party” grassroots Internet protest movement has sprung up seemingly spontaneously, all inspired by Santelli, with rallies planned today in cities from coast to coast to protest against Obama’s economic policies.
But was Santelli’s rant really so spontaneous? How did a minor-league TV figure, whose contract with CNBC is due this summer, get so quickly launched into a nationwide rightwing blog sensation? Why were there so many sites and organizations online and live within minutes or hours after his rant, leading to a nationwide protest just a week after his rant?
What hasn’t been reported until now is evidence linking Santelli’s “tea party” rant with some very familiar names in the Republican rightwing machine, from PR operatives who specialize in imitation-grassroots PR campaigns (called “astroturfing”) to bigwig politicians and notorious billionaire funders. As veteran Russia reporters, both of us spent years watching the Kremlin use fake grassroots movements to influence and control the political landscape. To us, the uncanny speed and direction the movement took and the players involved in promoting it had a strangely forced quality to it. If it seemed scripted, that’s because it was.
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Read the whole thing