The Time Lede blog has a round-up of stories about an Italian seismologist named Giampaolo Giuliani, who predicted yesterday’s tragic earthquake using radon gas measurements:
According to Reuters, Mr. Giuliani “was reported to authorities for spreading panic among the population” because “vans with loudspeakers had driven around the town a month ago telling locals to evacuate their houses” after he first warned that a major earthquake would strike L’Aquila soon. Reuters explains that the Italian authorities dismissed the warning:
The blog notes that:
In 1995, The Times reported that changes in radon gas levels “do not precede all earthquakes and cannot be used as a basis for issuing warnings to the public.” We just added more information to the post below based on an interview with Ross Stein of the United States Geological Survey, who called radon gas measurement one in a series of “great white hopes” for earthquake prediction that has been cast aside by most scientists.
I don’t believe in mixing jokes with tragedy, so I am serious when I say that I expect some Republican Congressmen to propose using radon gas measurement as a cheaper way of monitoring seismic events and possibly volcanoes. I hope that I am proved wrong about.
Update. A seismologist friend of mine writes that the radon gas measurement isn’t all that crazy, just not a great predictor overall.
I don’t think it’s totally bogus. If the cracks and fractures in the crust begin to form and propagate prior to the true failure of the fault zone, then some associated side effects could likely be observed. Increased rate of radon gas flow is one of them, as well as changes in electrical resistivity, uplift of the crust by several centimeters, changes in Poisson’s ratio… I think the idea is that the fracturing increases the surface area of the rocks and allows greater flow of water through the rocks, both of which could help radon gas (very short half life) be transported to the surface.
However, since there have been earthquakes that were not preceded by a radon-gas anomaly and radon-gas anomalies that were not followed by earthquakes, it’s not a very useful predictor. You would definitely want an earthquake predictor that did not give false alarms!
Keith
If Bobby Jindal doesn’t know what "volcano monitoring" is, there’s no way in the world he’ll know what "radon monitoring" is (hint: it has nothing to do with a North Korean missile or Tommy Chong’s daughter)
Zifnab
It wouldn’t be a bad idea to add radon gas measurements to the arsenal of seismic detection techniques. But this is a little too nuanced. Governor Jindal was just taking pot shots at the Stimulus Bill with his volcano remark. Odds are ‘Pubs will just steer clear of the entire volcano issue. It’s a little too sciency for their tastes anyway.
srv
Obviously, scientific method doesn’t work, there doesn’t seem to be any progress in seismology.
Why isn’t there an intelligent design program somewhere?
gnomedad
As the joke goes, they use {you name it} as a drunk uses lampposts — for support rather than illumination.
jenniebee
Just checking on this one, are we talking about the same people who went on a jihad against teaching reading using whole-word methods shortly after Hooked on Phonics started sponsoring the Rush Limbaugh show? If we are then yes, yes I do expect a call for Radon-only monitoring, just as soon as the appropriate contributor/sponsor may be found.
flounder
I predict that Republicans will use it to minimize efforts to protect people from Radon exposure:
"What do you mean you want lower exposure standards for Radon??? Who cares if you get lung cancer when we are all going to die thanks to to EARTHQUAKES!!!"
someguy
Look, with Republicans shooting cops, do you really need to make some shit up about how they could get more stupid, so you could ridicule them more?
For one thing, "if Republicans got more stupid, they would do _____" has a flawed premise; it’s unlikely that Republicans could get more stupid.
For another thing, it’s wasteful and inefficient to make shit up. You shouldn’t waste time or energy. 10 seconds spent perusing The Hill or Politico or Red State should give you ample material.
Though admittedly, it would be fun to see the Republicans touting the social value of a known cancer-causing agent. Y’know, besides tobacco.
schrodinger's cat
I have a better idea. Republican Congresspersons should propose tax credits so that individuals can monitor earth quakes at home by any method they choose, just like health insurance. Do your own earth quake monitoring and don’t depend on the government bureaucrats.
Napoleon
OT, but this goes under "only in Texas". I am listening to the Cleveland Indian’s season opener on the radio. They play the Texas Rangers and Dubya threw out the first pitch. The announcers say he got a huge standing ovation.
Roger Moore
@someguy:
After John’s failed "Peak Wingnut" prediction, I would hope that nobody would go out and predict something like the nadir of Republican stupidity. If there’s one thing we should have learned by now, it’s that no matter how dumb and crazy the nuts get, there’s always room for them to get dumber and crazier.
The Other Steve
That reminds me. I need to get a Radon test.
TenguPhule
File this under "Words to be eaten later".
gbear
They have two rules:
1. Natural disasters are triggered because of an inverse relationship to the amount of righteousness in a given area. No righteousness = major natural disaster.
2. When natural disasters occur in righteous areas, it is because god is testing us.
TenguPhule
Corrected.
jamie
Jor-El, if you seek to spread fear in the populace with false rumors of an impending destruction of Krypton, the council will be forced to consign you to the Phantom Zone…
Original Lee
@schrodinger’s cat: Beautiful. Just beautiful. *Sniff.*
Maybe once we get do-it-yourself earthquake monitoring through Congress, we can piggyback a self-reporting food safety regime on it. Surely now that Bachmann Truther Overdrive has been explained, we can device more ways to slip Home Improvement-esque government past the eeevil Big O.
geg6
@Keith:
Well, in Governor Jindal’s defense, he does live in a state where there are no basements and, thus, little reason to monitor radon.
We, however, in PA and WV are well aware of the benefits of radon monitoring.
‘Course, Governor Jindal doesn’t much like NOAA and other "sciency" agencies who do hurricane monitoring, either. So self-defense really doesn’t enter into his reasoning on these things, I guess.
canuckistani
They can predict earthquakes using dowsing rods and prayer.
Original Lee
@TenguPhule: Only if she weighs the same as a duck.
Roger Moore
This highlights one of the big problems with disaster prediction: you need to get it very good before it’s worth anything. Hurricane monitoring works because we have a sufficiently precise prediction of a hurricane’s likely path and destructiveness that we can give sensible warnings. We can tailor the warnings and responses to the anticipated risk.
But earthquake prediction aren’t there yet. People can’t be expected to evacuate their homes for months at a time on the off chance that a controversial prediction technique will work in this case. Unless you can predict the next quake with some precision, you really are just spreading panic by telling everyone to leave their homes. It would be much more productive to talk to the local authorities about stepping up disaster preparedness.
gbear
@TenguPhule:
Well, that too. (rule 2a.)
NonyNony
@someguy:
So are you proposing we’ve hit "Peak Wingnut" someguy? Cole took a lot of shit for proposing it a while back, and I think the last few months have gone on to prove that no matter how stupid you think they could get, they can surprise you. For example, who could have predicted Michelle Bachman? I’m not even going to say Bachman is as stupid as they come either – as soon as I decide that someone even crazy-stupider than she is will come along and prove me wrong.
Meh – it’s more fun to see if you can predict what kind of crazy shit they’ll do next. There really should be a pool for this – like an Intrade for wingnut ideas or something. Someone could make an awful lot of money on the current Republican delegation to Congress.
geg6
@NonyNony:
I’m in.
ThresherK
Shouldn’t that be Giampaolo (no relation) Giuliani, if only to protect his reputation?
(I’m operating under the belief that if he were a relative that America’s Assignment Editor would have pushed it and Time would have bit.)
HitlerWorshippingPuppyKicker
I propose that we measure outgassing events from Republicans themselves. A sudden increase in hydrogen sulfide near the Republican might indicate that an oral outburst is imminent.
canuckistani
Wasted effort. No matter how stupid the idea, some nutbag would claim the idea as his own five minutes after reading your posting.
Roger Moore
@NonyNony:
It’s not that somebody crazier and dumber than Bachman will come along. Those people already exist out there, as you can see by looking at some of the scarier wingnut blogs. What happens is that after Bachman gets more media time, people get desensitized to Bachman-level wingnut. That makes it easier for them to listen to and repeat wingnuts who are even further out there than she is.
ibid
So this guy sees himself as a heroic figure during a national tragedy, but his approach to the larger issue is misguided and overly simplistic, and his actions regarding the specific event may have actually made things worse. And his name is Giuliani? That can’t be a coincidence.
I suspect that Republicans aren’t that interested in protecting against the type of natural disaster that is closely associated with the potential destruction of San Francisco, no matter how cheaply it can be done.
Woody
If is there’s a way to use volcanos to attack evolution or to propagate intelligent design, then they’d be interested…
Otherwise, ummmmm, not so much…
Punchy
It’s Opening Day, and instead of a thread on how resurgent the Pirates will be (winning the NL Central, taking boats in Somalia, spending copious time in the Carribbean), we get radon gas?
Come on, y’all. Throw up a baseball thread, fer chrissakes.
HitlerWorshippingPuppyKicker
@Punchy:
Dbacks open with Brandon Webb today.
One of the best sinkerballers in history. Maybe the best, time will tell.
Zifnab
Please do not be alarmed. This is a test of the Holy Natural Disaster System. I repeat, this is only a test. Do not be alarmed. Do not change your beliefs. Remain calm and pray. That is all.
HitlerWorshippingPuppyKicker
Take me out to the ballgame.
Punchy
@HitlerWorshippingPuppyKicker: I’m well aware. Even though I exist as a Cubs fan, I have money on Webb (and Halladay) overs in sesason wins (15.5). Not to mention, Webb’s my fantasy stud.
Let’s hope he makes windmills of Tulowitski and his ilk.
HitlerWorshippingPuppyKicker
@Zifnab:
Has God’s Threat Level been at Yellow for most of the last 7 and a half years?
That color coded signal is what keeps me on my toes, I’ll tell you what.
Calouste
@Roger Moore:
That’s the main problem with geology based disasters (earthquakes and volcanos), they move on a geological timescale. With a hurricane you can predict three days in advance it is going to hit somewhere within a specific 24 hour period, with earthquakes you might just be able to predict in advance that it could hit somewhere in a multi-year timeframe. With volcanos you get a better resolution, but you are still talking weeks or months there.
canuckistani
Cito Gaston is back with the Blue Jays – he’s the manager who led us to World Series wins in ’92 and ’93. We have high hopes, if our players stay healthy.
gbear
OT but wingnutty:
Michelle Bachman’s district has the highest mortgage forclosure rate in MN. She’s voted against any and all bills that provide relief to those who are losing their homes.
This will most likely not register with most of her constituents.
HitlerWorshippingPuppyKicker
@gbear:
I’m sure her loser consituents really hate themselves and will vote to f*ck themselves over.
gbear
HWPC, She didn’t win by a landslide. I feel so sorry for the folks who tried to get rid of her but couldn’t quite get it done.
celticdragon
Oh dear. I have no doubt that some of our home schooled, full quiver, Palin knock offs are already there.
Pretty much. I will be finishing a geology major at Guilford College (full disclosure) starting next fall, so I am fairly familiar with the science. Radon gas is ONE potential telltail sign of trouble, and can’t really be just ignored IMHO.
However, it isn’t even nearly accurate enough to tell you what is going on and when something might happen. A mechanism where data of this sort can trigger an alert posture for disaster preparedness is what is really needed, rather then potentially needlessly panicking locals.
gwangung
@celticdragon:
Which is kinda the point for funding volcano monitoring, aint it?
Roger Moore
@HitlerWorshippingPuppyKicker:
He has quite a way to go before he can be talked about in the same breath as this guy. It’s not even obvious to me that he comes off very well in comparison to this guy.