Reihan Salam is supposed to be one of those sane Republicans that we always hear about. This shows he is not:
With Specter running in Pennsylvania’s Democratic primary in 2010, Republicans have a perfect test case. There’s an excellent chance that a primary candidate from the Democratic left will give Specter a serious fight, opening him up to a vigorous challenge from a Republican reformer. That challenge will probably come from Pat Toomey, who, as head of the Club for Growth, has emphasized tax cuts above all else. But as a Senate candidate, Toomey will have to connect with voters in a state hard hit by industrial decline. To have even the remotest chance of winning the seat, he’ll need to offer effective solutions on health care, energy and transportation. This might not come naturally to Toomey. But if he can pull it off, and if he can claim Specter’s scalp, he’ll become the face of a revitalized GOP.
I predict that Pat Toomey will be elected Senator from Pennsylvania right after Noam Chomsky becomes the governor of Idaho.
Hard-right Republicans don’t elections win in states that Obama won by double digits. It just doesn’t happen. Look at that goddamn registration figures for Christ’s sake.
Stranger things have happened, all I’m saying.
Reihan Salam is just a polite nutjob
True, but that was before realignment. Pennsylvania really did realign.
As a Pennsylvania resident and Democrat, my vote is going to a third party candidate if Specter takes the Democrat nomination.
Shorter Salam: Toomey has a remote chance of winning if he abandons his crazy political views.
I don’t think Salam said this because he really thinks it’s a possibility, I think he’s just trying to do what any reality-based Republican is supposed to do these days — explain what the wingnuts have to do to become relevant again. And what he’s saying here is that Toomey basically has to become the opposite of what he is now to win. Sure, it’ll never happen, but if it did, Salam is right that Toomey’s reformation and success would be the “face of a revitalized GOP”.
If there are enough people like MTiffany, then maybe Toomey has a chance of winning after all. Not that that makes Salam’s idea that Toomey might offer “effective solutions” any less delusional.
But, but, but, tax cuts are effective solutions on health care, energy and transportation.
Rick Santorum lost by 18 points in his last election.
DougJ is right.
Just because he doesn’t froth at the mouth like most of the GOP leaning pundits doesn’t make him sane, other examples of seemingly sane conservative pundits, Brooks and the newest conservative voice at NYT, Douthat.
But Hillary’s primary win in Pennsylvania showed that Obama could not win in PA.
@Shygetz: And you go back and look at the end of that 2006 campaign, Santorum was running ads touting his work with Hillary.
To win PA you have to take the four ‘burbs around Philly, Toomey is too crazy for us.
Before the election:
America’s passionate embrace of conservative ideas is this close to sweeping Toomey to victory.
After the election:
Pennsylvania is a Democrat(ic) stronghold where any Republican would have no chance for victory. A massive defeat says nothing about the popularity of conservative ideas.
Ahem. As a Pennsylvanian I think Toomey can make a go of it if he lets the hardcore GOP agenda slide (ha, ha) and runs on race, race, race. Granted health care reform would put him in Larouche territory and his mission is almost certainly hopeless, but that is what his advisors will tell him. The rural T is racist like almost nowhere else.
I have seen the future of the GOP and that future has a name: Ruprecht.
Spector will split the vote to his left if anything close to a viable third party candidate emerges. Actually, it may be a great chance for the Greens to break through in Pennsylvania (yes, I realize this is borderline crazy, but as far as “chances” go….)
No no. Apparently you missed the memo — all the racists live in the South.
Pat Toomey actually will help expose the Republican Party for the hypocrites they truly are. After Specter jumped ship every wingnut in Congress said he was just running from an asswhupping because he was out of touch on the stimulus vote. But now that he is a Democrat all of a sudden they no longer want Toomey to wing the Republican primary. Orlin Hatch said something to the effect of NOBODY thinks Toomey can beat Specter in a general. Yet and still they were all set to let Specter go down in flames in a Republican primary knowing that Toomey wouldn’t have a shot in hell in the general. Now that they are calling for Ridge to run against Specter it just shows that they know running Toomey was a bad move but they wanted retribution on the stimulus vote more than they wanted Specter’s seat evidently. How batshit crazy do you have to be to just give up a seat because of one frikking vote? A vote that was undeniably sensible seeing as how Specter helped to water down the stimulus bill before he voted for it. I don’t think there is any coming back for these folks. There aren’t enough people in high places in the party who are even remotely moderate to have someone tell them to pull back from the edge with any measure of credibility in their eyes. I mean just close your eyes for a moment and try to come up with a name of a Republican who their base likes, who isn’t bat shit crazy……..And after you open your eyes just realize that probably by 2014 if not sooner the Republican Party will have splintered to form either a third party or to have the Republican party dissappear all together.
Yes, Santorum lost his re-election bid. So, does that mean that the people of Pennsylvania suddenly have collectively changed their minds that they don’t like wingnut rhetoric? Or does that demonstrate that they still like the rhetoric but don’t like the results? And, if the latter, do Pennsylvanians have long enough collective memories to think that Toomey would be the same as Santorum, or would they be persuaded that THIS wingnut might turn out okay?
Don’t get me wrong–I think Toomey will lose. But, I wouldn’t put money on it. Not enough crazy people have died or moved since Santorum was elected for me to think that the base demographics of Pennsylvania have changed enough to make not-Toomey a lock. I think the registration numbers are ephemeral–an artifact of a anti-Bush backlash from the last Presidential election. Whether or not they sustain depends on how disillusioned people get with a Democratic administration. If there is a mid-term Obama backlash, I think Toomey could pull it off, especially if a Spector-progressive primary leaves the left wing feeling like MTiffany.
@Dennis-SGMM: For a minute there I thought you said Rupert
@demkat620: PA elected Rick Santorum. No amount of handwaving or “explanation” will make that fact disappear. He wasn’t a stealth-conservative or anything like that, he was nuts and you guys elected him. So quit telling me that PA is an unassailable Democratic stronghold.
So long as right-wing lunacy remains out of fashion, PA will remain safe. But, if anti-Obama fever sweeps your state, Toomey’s got a shot.
@Shygetz: Yeah, Obama won PA by 10. Not 2. 10. Toomey is a loon. He couldn’t beat Specter in a GOP primary even before Obama cleaned the sane people out of the PA GOP.
Noam’s kind of old to be Governor, I think. Plus he seems kind of settled in the Lexington area, right? So I think everyone ought to slow down with their “Noam for the Potato State” stickers.
Or, as Elvis reputedly used to say, “and if my aunt had nuts, she’d be my uncle”.
Eh, MTiff’s “Democrat nomination” instead of “Democratic nomination” has my troll detector blinking.
Just Some Fuckhead
@Bootlegger: The Green party in PA is a Republican funded operation.
Ella in NM
Isn’t there a saying about how wishful thinking is not a plan?
Who wrote this treacle?
Oh for crissakes, he’s pimping a book he wrote with Ross Douthat. Which says, if I understand the reviews correctly, that politics is a big confusing muddle, but “the family” is the key to the GOP’s appeal, and with …..
Anyway, there is one way that Toomey becomes the “face of a revitalized GOP.” That is if Obama fails completely on the economic front. In other words, the revitalized GOP rests on the failure of Obama.
I think we have seen this movie already.
Well it looks like Toomlin will have at least 12 votes in Shenandoah, PA.
It is your insistence that plans be examined in the light of “reality” which shows your true naivety. In right win land, this is very good news for… whomever.
@gbear: Gah! Toomey. Not focusing well this morning…
I forget the two letters ‘ic’ at the end of ‘Democrat’ when referring to the party nomination for the Senate and your ‘troll detector’ starts blinking, Ben? Does your ‘troll detector’ also double, by any chance, as a divining rod?
Hey, against generic Democrat I’m sure Toomey would at least have a chance. I mean Bush beat Dukakis. Political swings happen.
But against Specter? In a general? Good luck. Nah gonna ha pan.
When are these jerkwads going to wake up and actually join the conversation? Salam is utterly clueless.
Let me guess: tax cuts, tax cuts, tax cuts. And minority bashing. With a dash of the s-word. Maybe Toomey will refer to Obama as some sort of thug. He’ll probably take a shot at his wife and kids for good measure. What Republicans don’t realize is that thier ‘base’ – hateful whites – is dying off.
But hey, I read that membership in white supremacist groups is on the rise. Perhaps thier new slogan can be “Aryan Brotherhood Now and Forever”
Just Some Fuckhead
@MTiffany: I like your employment advice to Specter:
If I lost a ton of weight, was twenty years younger, had a race-change, and had a lobotomy, I could be Miss America. Seriously, this is the best they can do. GOP, freshen up your game. I’m bored with you now.
@Just Some Fuckhead: I second JSF’s endorsement. I think we should really send this advice to Specter.
@asiangrrlMN: Don’t forget the required, paid-for-by-the-pageant boob job.
But at least with a “generic Democrat” on the ballot Democratic voters can actually get to vote for a real Democrat rather than this Arlen Specter “Republican-lite masquerading as a Democrat for the sake of self-preservation” bullshit.
Seriously, isn’t anyone else mightily pissed off that if Specter gets the Democratic nomination then the Republicans are effectively fielding two candidates in the election?
Just Some Fuckhead
Oh yes. Especially since Specter SAID he wasn’t going to vote with Democrats or be an automatic 60th vote for cloture. And because he’s always been a douchebag. Also.
To have even the remotest chance of winning the seat, he’ll need to offer effective solutions on health care, energy and transportation.
So… Toomey is going to offer Medicare-for-all, a carbon tax, and massive investment in SUPERTRAINS? Sure he will – right after Marisa Miller fetches me another beer from the fridge.
@MTiffany: Specter’s comments on the talk shows this morning pretty much guarantees that he’s going to get primaried. He essentially said he opposed 90% of the Democratic platform. Patrick Murphy, your table is ready. At the very least he’ll get pushed to the left a bit.
@Hunter Gathers: Don’t need help in that department. Though, I could use some propping up.
@MTiffany: Yes, that. I can see how losing Specter might be a detriment to the GOP, but I still can’t see how it benefits the Dems any.
Is that because Harry Reid can reliably produce the other 59 votes? The twelve Democrats who voted against the cram down bill the other day might have something to say about that.
Brick Oven Bill
The reason Republican numbers are so much lower than Democratic numbers is that the former Republican base consists of private working class, and middle class people, who have to interact with society on a regular basis. They sense that they are being sold down the river and refuse to support the 2-Party system. Kemp was a nice guy, but I really doubt his children attended public schools in DC.
The Democratic Party consists of victims. It also consists of many of the upper class ~3% of society, who are largely isolated from the realities of human interaction, are thus naïve, and remain Believers. It also consists of the education/health care/political class, who are in it for a buck.
The victims will always want more, and naïve people will need to get burned in order to wake up. Cole, I sense is making a paper buck off of the Democratic Party mechanism. I am not sure that DougJ is making a paper buck off of the Democratic Party mechanism. But nonetheless, he does appear to be a Believer.
This is why the situational awareness among former Republicans is so much higher than among Democrats.
This article is good, and describes our economic situation very well. In an associated note, Franklin argued against a gold standard, and instead wanted to back paper money with land. This was actually not a bad idea.
We borrowed $13 billion this quarter last year. This quarter, the borrowing, er, sales to the Fed, is $361 billion. This is a 27-fold increase. Hopey changey. O Ba Ma.
Sorry, but isn’t the real question here who the Dems should run in the primary to challenge Specter? It seems to me the Dems ought to be able to put forward a viable contender and simply crush whomever the GOP puts up, no?
So, who’s likely to run against Specter in the Democratic primary? Do we have anyone? Anyone?
@Common Sense: They all moved south, remember? John Cornyn said so.
Just Some Fuckhead
@Dennis-SGMM: I’m not analyzing Harry Reid’s effectiveness. I’m simply tellin ya what Specter said.
Joe Sestak seems more than willing:
@demkat620: Yeah, PA elected Obama by 10, not 2, as part of a nationwide landslide victory by one of the stronger politicians the Democrats have fielded, against a critically wounded Republican Party limping after it’s worst administration in living history.
It also elected Rick Santorum, not Olympia Snowe. This is proof that, at least not too long ago, PA is/was perfectly comfortable with the craziest of the crazy. You are asking me to either believe that a huge part of the PA residents comfortable with crazy are dead or gone, or that PA residents have truly internalized the fact that they, well, endorsed and elected a crazy guy. I don’t believe the first option, and we’ll just say that I have yet to be convinced of the second. Show me PA voting down a nutter in another statewide election, and maybe you’ll start to convince me.
@Brick Oven Bill:
Really? Is that the best you can come up with? What kind of victims? Specify please.
You have to come up with better ways of picking fights.
Your shit is weak.
Just Some Fuckhead
@Comrade Jake: Jake, I think the issue is that Specter is such a political fixture in PA (last poll I saw showed 65% of Democrats in PA viewed him favorably) that we’re gonna have a hard time knocking him off. Our best bet was to allow the nutjobs left in the Republican party to knock him off and then beat their wingnut.
You are aware that a black guy just won the state by double digits, right?
Bob: So, according to your logic, Conservative policies have made many more people victims. These victims will vote in their self interest for liberal policies which will help them to not be victims. Democracy in action.
Heck of a job, bobby!
Victims of our own provocative beauty.
Just Some Fuckhead
Don’t let BOB derail another thread. Just appreciate his troll-fu quietly and let’s get back to bashing Specter. ;)
An “excellent chance” of a “vigorous challenge” AND only a REMOTE chance IF he throws his GOP creds out the window and becomes an intelligent policy maker overnight?
@Just Some Fuckhead: But I like kicking the B.O.B. It’s fine sport. Not really challenging, but I like to try to push his buttons. It’s only a matter of time before he spits out some sort of misogynistic B.S.
@Just Some Fuckhead:
My point is that unless Zombie Lyndon Johnson takes over as Majority Leader no one is going to get an automatic vote from Senate Democrats. Some cloture votes will fail even after Franken is seated this summer. I’m no fan of Snarlin’ Arlen but at least he came right out and said it.
Because a race between a Democratic Specter and any Republican is win for the Republicans no matter what. There is no upside to Democrats even if Specter wins as a Democrat. He’s only carrying the Democrat label to avoid a Republican primary contest he can’t win. His politics haven’t changed. So, IMO, we’re better off fielding a real Democrat in the election, and that way, win or lose, at least us Democrats have the opportunity to vote for a real Democrat, not Specter.
Specter ostensibly left the Democratic party in the mid 60’s because of their ill treatment of gays. I can’t help but notice that when the Democrats started being nicer to gays, it wasn’t sufficient to bring him back, even in the face of the fact that the Republicans started treating gays just as badly as the Democrats used to. Whatever ethics the man used to have, they are now long dead. He’s now nothing more than an opportunistic parasite and he needs to go.
@Shygetz: Joe Sestak defeats Curt Weldon for PA -07, 2006. Chris Carney defeats Don Sherwood PA-10 in 2006. PA’s Senators are not usually nutbags. Santorum came in 1994 with the repub revolution replacing Harris Wofford who was appointed to replace John Heinz -Republican Moderate.
Just Some Fuckhead
@Hunter Gathers: Yer kicking at shadows. BOB is an artist, not an idealogue. You gotta treat him like an artist so he’ll be inspired to paint more beautiful word art.
If we kick out all of the opportunistic parasites from both parties Congress will be able to convene in the hospitality suite at Motel 6.
@Just Some Fuckhead: That was beautiful, Fuckhead. Yer like some sort of mosaic masterpiece.
Edit: Dennis: Your comment was a thing of beauty too.
@Dennis-SGMM: I heard that remark by Specter. I took it to mean that he wouldn’t be an automatic vote for the Dems. I think you are giving him too much credit. I wouldn’t care about his parasitic habits if it actually benefited the Dems. I don’t think it will.
@MTiffany: I haven’t seen Specter benefit the Dems at all since he came back into the fold. I think it’s all about the primaries and none about actual loyalty to either party. I agree with Specter in principle (the GOP is the incredible shrinking tent), but to me, his defection is more one of pouting and flailing his arms in the air than one of taking a principled stand.
@Just Some Fuckhead:
Ahhh, well said, zen-master-fuckhead.
Remember friends, “Friends don’t let friends
fuckfeed the trolls. Unless they’re really, really drunk.”
@Just Some Fuckhead: Oh so he’s like a less talented Colbert. I was mistaken. I’ll just ignore him for the most part, unless he really makes it easy for me.
Just Some Fuckhead
@Dennis-SGMM: What’s yer point Dennis? Because some Democrats don’t vote in lockstep, we should allow Republicans to queer our primaries and party?
I agree with your assessment completely.
I disagree, reading the whole thing he comes off as sane to me. He’s not addressing you and me; he’s addressing conservative Republicans. He’s arguing you may not like these moderates, but they’re good for conservatism, and definitely better than having a Democrat in their place. Specter was great at questioning judicial nominees; it sure is too bad we don’t have him with Souter being replaced, and so on.
He’s facing what he knows is a hostile audience, so he has to put things delicately. But he’s spot on when he writes
That sums it up. The last few sentences are funny, but I agree with mechanical jacobin; it doesn’t sound like he believes this will happen, but he needs to outline what ought to happen if Republicans want to be relevant again.
Third Eye Open
Shorter BOB: Real ‘Mercuns don’t whine about the dumb shit that goes on in their government, or the repercussions on their fellow citizens by said gov’t. You see, egghead libruls who don’t know any better vote on emotion alone, betraying all that expensive book-lernin’ they got, while I on the other hand educated myself through judicious use of cereal-box lids, comic books and furry zines.
Which works great everyone in favor of “smaller government.” Congress is, after all, the beast from which all government is embiggened. Pare the
fuckersbastards down to size and they’ll be easier to keep an eye on and correct when they spend too much of our money. But seeing as how this is the Motel 6 we’re talking about, I am willing to make certain fiscal allowances for hookers and blow.
@demkat620: I don’t know why I got a strikethrough but PA-07 and PA-10 were both nutters. Weldon in particular and I never though he could lose.
But man was it sweet when he did.
Embiggened is a perfectly cromulent word. So are kwyjibo, duketastic and duketastrophe.
Now that is something I had not considered.
Hmm. I wish I knew how I unbolded the blockquote.
Coleman? Smart, and with a strong grasp of policy issues? TF, W?!?
@Just Some Fuckhead:
Sure the Dems should field a primary candidate against Specter though the last poll I saw had Specter’s approval rating among Pennsylvania Democrats at something like 65%. It may be that Pennsylvanians would elect a Democrat like Specter just as Nebraskans would elect a Democrat like Ben Nelson.
For the record, I don’t think that the coup of getting Specter to defect was by itself worth Reid letting him keep all of his seniority for committee appointments. That may have vaulted Specter over some reasonably reliable Dems.
Just Some Fuckhead
Maybe when Brownback inquires about membership with benefits in the Democratic party we’ll be inspired to draw a bright line in the sand. But don’t count on it. We’re Democrats after all, there’s no serious punch in the gut we can’t blame on our own clumsiness.
It’s the shit that doesn’t matter, like saying “Democrat” instead of “Democratic” that really matters.
Alright, the last few sentences are nutty. But I’m still struck by that one observation:
Visiting another conservative site, this is how they think. They believe they represent a silent majority, that Repubican’s lost because Bush is liberal, and if only Republicans return to conservative principals they will win.
I admit, it’s tough to let in that most other people don’t see things the way they do. For example, in 2004, I was convinced Bush would lose the election, because of course a majority of people wouldn’t stand for a war that was started with what was revealed to be an utterly false causus belli. Of course they wouldn’t re-elect an administration that had overseen Abu Ghraib. I believed that most Americans were enough like myself that Bush couldn’t win.
Now in my defense, when Bush one the election, it opened my eyes. Oh, most Americans really don’t care all that much if we invade another country for loudly declared reasons that turned out to be utterly without foundation. They don’t care all that much if we torture foreign detainees. It was a kick to the gut, no doubt, but I did learn. And now I’m wondering if and when it will dawn on the “silent majority” that they are neither.
Basic GOP strategy: purge moderate elements from party in order to run progressively harder-right candidates. Assuming at some indeterminite point in the future, voters are bound to give one or more of these candidates a chance, so party elites can say that their viewpoint is validated by voters.
Bob In Pacifica
I am hoping for a stroke or something equally debilitating for Specter. Maybe if He’s really on our side God will reach out of the sky and grab his traitorous ass and redirect him to Hell.Then the gov appoints a real Dem, who trounces Tom Ridge or Toomey or whatever chump the Reps put up.
Specter is worthless for the Dems and stands in the way of getting a real Dem in office.
So long as the TV ‘news’ buys the PR spin that the political parties pay for— lock, stock, and soundbite — who’s going to argue for reality and how are they going to be heard?
Here is why Specter switching sides shouldn’t piss anybody off. What does he actually get out of it? I said this on a thread here the day it happened but its worth repeating. There is nothing in life the Specter wants more than being reelected next year. If he thinks he would have caught hell in a a Republican primary with Toomey imagine whats gonna happen in a Democratic primary next year if he votes against cloture for EFCA, education funding, and cap and trade.
I don’t care what endorsements he was given by Pres Obama and Gov Rendell, if the unions back another Democrat and other prominent Dems endorse another candidate, say a Sestak for example, Specter is toast. He doesn’t have anything in writing as far as an endorsement yet and I have a strong suspicion that if he tries to fuck over President Obama you won’t see anybody campaigning for him. Now self preservation is his biggest motivation. I don’t give a damn what he SAYS right now either one of two things is going to happen. Either he gets with the program or he is gets his ass handed to him in a primary. He HAS to say he isn’t an automatic vote right now because otherwise it looks like pay to play. But the proof will be in the pudding when the key votes come up.
What do the Democrats give up in the meantime? Absolutely nothing. He doesn’t get any chairmanships and he doesn’t get his seniority until at the earliest after the elections next year. In the end even after Franken gets seated we would have been begging Specter for his vote for cloture on major issues anyway. It should be much easier to get that vote now that he is under our tent. That doesn’t mean anybody has to like it but you should at least understand it. Lets be real here, by the time whomever wins that seat in PA is seated in early 2011 most of the major votes will have already come up. What in hell good does it do to get a Dem two years from now if most of the agenda is voted on this year and next year? Specter is definitely a weasel, but for now he is OUR weasel.
Besides if nothing else his defection can be exploited in the elections next year by candidates in other states and other districts. “If the GOP isn’t even big enough for Arlen Specter….”
I think you get my drift.
Of course Specter’s approval among Democrats is 65%. There is no alternative in PA to his political left. And he’s still a Republican – stealth party affiliation be damned.
It would be nice if the Democratic Party would grow a fucking set and run real Democrats. You know: people who are proud to be liberal and aren’t scared of being called liberal, or communist, or socialist, or “soft on crime,” or anything else. If the Democrats would at least run real Democrats I think more Democrats would get out and vote and we’d probably capture some independents too, because the party would at least be standing up and fighting for its values, instead of just hiding in a corner asking the Republicans not to beat us up too much.
I don’t care if you lose the fight, just throw a fucking punch.
@Just Some Fuckhead:
Bob is a guy who once accidentally painted a couple of interesting pieces, and now hangs around the gallery trying to pick up rich women.
Just Some Fuckhead
@sgwhiteinfla: Specter switched because he has no chance to win the Republican nomination and a pretty good chance at capturing the Democratic nomination. He’s gotten the approval of 65% of Democrats in PA by spending a lifetime in national politics actively working against the Democratic agenda. This tells me he doesn’t actually have to do things too differently here on out to win the nom and he’s got a huge statewide name recognition advantage (and reportedly a money advantage too) over anyone we throw against him.
We had a pretty easy method to get a real Democrat elected to the other Senate seat in PA. Let Specter get primaried by his own party then run against that nutjob. Now, as others have pointed out, we’ll prolly get to choose between a wingnut Republican and a douchebag Republican.
Just Some Fuckhead
@SnarkIntern: Haha. Funny, but I disagree.
The polling numbers will come out tomorrow for Specter as a Dem from since he switched last week. I think its gonna surprise him and a lot of other people. Its true he has name recognition but that can work against him if this move blows up in his face. If every time there is a big vote Sestak points out that Specter is voting against the party, and I suspect he will, whereever Specter is at right now his numbers WILL come down. Also Republicans are calling for him to refund their contributions. Who exactly in the Democratic party is going to fill his coffers if he still votes Republican?
This is one of the most reasonable takes I’ve seen on the Specter defection.
I’ll go our Sgt one better, I don’t see how Specter avoids a Demcratic Primary challenge. The national pieces don’t run PA, they don’t make a sale to voters because they back Specter. They can throw money at Specter but that won’t make a sale to Democrats if someone they like runs against him. I’m no PA guru, it’s a long ways from my home turf, but primaries are strange things, especially in an off-year election.
Even in a vote by mail state like OR the turnout is depressed in off-years and the reliable voters are farther toward the edge than the center. Specter is hopeless for that cadre, they flatly won’t like him and probably didn’t vote for him in the last General. Those folks are also the grassroots contributors and the organizers.
Minus big votes by Specter I think he’s toast in 2010.
It’s a shame that Tweety isn’t running for the seat anymore. Watching Specter and Matthews try to out pander each other would have made for great theater.
Just Some Fuckhead
@sgwhiteinfla: Didn’t he tell Rendell he wouldn’t need monetary help in the primary? I suspect after 30 years in national politics he’s done enough favors to pull down the bucks. For instance, it isn’t likely he’ll lose the support of AIPAC.
Specter was taking a lot of heat on his right and was losing a lot of his primary voters to the Dem Party. It is hoped that the Dems squeeze Specter from the left and press him further left again.
Sestak can play the reverse Toomey and force Specter to vote right or hemorrage political capital. And with Sestak on the left and Toomey on the right, you’ve got a great litmus test for how much Specter’s party affiliation is worth.
He said that before everybody started asking for their money back. I think AIPAC will still support him but I don’t think that everyone that has supported him in the past will continue to do so. Especially if Ridge ends up being the Republican nominee. But even AIPAC might be suspect, especially if Pres Obama puts pressure on Israel to support a two state solution as it looks like he will.
The Very Reverend Battleaxe of Knowledge
Weird shit can happen. I don’t think it’s impossible that Specter could lose the Democratic primary next year, if his votes don’t reflect his new allegiance, if he says something really, really stupid between now and then, or if the voters just decide he’s too damn old to serve in the senate for another six years.
That’s what happened here in Washington in…1982, I think. Our almost universally beloved senator Warren Magnuson lost the election because people just thought he was too old. That’s how the egregious Slade Gorton wound up in the senate. Like I said, weird shit can happen.
I have to count my blessings. I have to say: my congressman, Jim McDermott, and my two senators, Patty Murray and Maria Cantwell, are truly fine public servants. I only wish it made a fucking difference!
Just Some Fuckhead
@sgwhiteinfla: We can quibble over the details but in the end yer presenting a best case scenario based on how you hope things will go. I’m sticking with what he said he’d do and his track record as a douchebag. Obviously, I hope you’re right.
Yes, the political porn equivalent of “Two Girls, One Cup.”
Ha ha. You used ‘Specter’ and ‘principle’ in the same sentence.
Maybe, maybe not. (remember Obama and Hillary and all the rest of them campaigning for Lieberdouche against the democratic nominee in CT?) But Rendell’s statewide machine sure can make the sale to PA voters.
Ugh. I didn’t think it was possible for me to hate Specter more than I already did. I can only hope that by 2010, age has done him in and he decides not to run. Pretty slim hope, I admit. The guy would wheel his casket into the senate if he had to.
@MTiffany: Thanks, I just threw up in my mouth a little bit. I need a mint.
Your making a mistake of confusing a Primary which Lieberman lost with a General which he won. No second goes in PA like there was in CT, he loses the Primary and he’s done.
Party machines can put up money, but they can’t manufacture votes. Party machines can try to dissuade candidates, but they can’t stop it. Once you get out of the very top of State Parties the entire make up is the activist base – pushing them around doesn’t work, it just pisses them off.
One other thing, Obama sucked the Party machinery dry at the State levels. A huge chunk of what ordinarily goes to State Parties went directly to Obama, that hurts and has consequences, ones that an uprising could easily exploit.
I have been and still am to an extent a guerrilla in Democratic politics, I’ve won some battles and I know it can be done. All that said, it’s up to Pennsylvanians to make it happen and activists to push it.
Actually I did not lay out a best case scenario. I laid out EVERY scenario. Either he gets on board or he’s toast. There really are no other scenarios. I know it pisses a lot of Dems off to think he might get reelected next year as a Dem but if he does he will have damn well earned it. If he steps out of line he will get his ass handed to him. Thats the facts devoid of any emotion. Lets not forget that LIEberman got his ass primaried by a guy who wasn’t a favorite of the national Democratic party apparatus in Ned Lamont and LIEberman had way more name recognition in that primary too. I mean hell he was only the VP candidate for the Dems six years prior. This time Specter can’t go to Independent status because of PA’s sore loser laws unlike LIEberman. And as I pointed out, in the meantime we lose nothing. It is what it is.
My point being, after all the bullshit that Lieberman pulled (his head was way far up Bush’s butt) , Obama and Hillary still supported him over a real democrat in the primary. What makes anyone think they won’t do the same for Specter, no matter what horseshit he pulls to sink the democratic agenda between now and 2010? I take them all at their word- Specter will do everything he can to thwart the democrats between now and 2010, and Obama will throw his support behind him anyway.
Mike in NC
Are they offering senior discounts and early bird specials?And wasn’t it Carville who described Pennsylvania as Philadelphia and Pittsburgh with Alabama in between?
I didn’t see the irrational in this piece either. Pragmatic would be my adjective of choice. The only thing it had was bizarre optimism, but I can’t fault a guy for that.
@Mike in NC:
True, and Obama still wiped the floor with the old man and the snowbilly.
Just Some Fuckhead
@sgwhiteinfla: I don’t think he has to get on board and so far, neither does he, if his cramdown vote was any indication. I definitely do not think he will have earned anything if he’s reelected as a Democrat, regardless of how he actually votes. He’s just capitalizing on his incumbency; name-recognition, favorability numbers he ran up with Democrats as a Republican douchebag, support not keyed to the letter after his name and the ostensible support of Rendell and Biden and others.
In regards to your conclusion “we lose nothing”, I maintain we already lost when Democratic party leaders allowed this travesty to occur.
On this morning’s edition of C-SPAN’S Washington Journal, host Steve Scully said 2 news outlets were reporting that Tom Ridge is considering an entry into the Pennsylvania senate race.
If I were a betting person, I’d say the Republican money machine throws all its weight behind Ridge and he easily defeats Pat Toomey.
I know Ridge is pro-choice, but he still somehow managed to get himself elected governor of Pennsylvania.
It also stands to reason that Cornyn and McConnell are probably applying great pressure to Ridge to get into this race.
My prediction – Specter vs Ridge in a nailbiter.
Chris Matthews is enough of an abomination and an insult to journalism already.
The idea of that smarmy, sleazy Matthews running for the Senate makes me more sick to my stomach than seeing him spout his usual nonsense on his 2 stupid tv programs.
Just Some Fuckhead
My prediction: the Republican wins.
@JK: I whole heartedly agree with you about Tweety. It just would have been hilarious watching him try to get people to vote for him. He still thinks Palin is the real deal.
joe from Lowell
If Republicans could “offer effective solutions on health care, energy and transportation,” they wouldn’t be in this mess.
I think Salam is right: if Pat Toomey could “offer effective solutions on health care, energy and transportation,” he’d have an excellent chance of winning the Senate seat.
But, you see, he can’t do that. None of them can; that’s why they’re a little teeny tiny itty bitty little minority.
Reihan has a lively and playful intelligence, which sometimes leads him down evolutionary deadends.
What he does have in spades is courage……imagine being a conservative muslim intellectual.
Both Reihan and Ross Douthat were spoofed by Sarah Palin….they believed she was Elle Woods…..but she turned out to be Veruka Salt.
@Just Some Fuckhead:
No offense, but I sure as hell hope your prediction is wrong.
I think that Matthews, like millions of other men in America, still wants to get inside Sarah Palin’s panties.
Both Reihan and Douthat were thinking with their crotches instead of with their brains.
Salam: “Meanwhile, Texas Gov. Rick Perry is joking about taking his state out of the Union.”
I don’t actually dislike Salam — he seems like a really nice guy — but this unbelievable level of intellectual dishonesty conjures, for me, pity for him more than anything else.
It’s sad for me that smart people have to dissemble like this for the lowest of the low, gene-pool wise (Texas Republicans).
I’m so post-partisan!
@JK: Yeah, ok, listen. I don’t know about you, but last I checked Sarah Palin was a fifty year old with five kids. That’s not to say you can’t be attractive at that age with that many kids. But… I mean… come on. She’s a fifty year old with five kids. A GRANDmother. GMILF. That’s kinda gross. If you’re really going to vote with your penis, at least give your vote to any actual hottie like Miss California.
Does anyone outside the geriatric ward REALLY think Sarah Palin is hot? I mean, really?
@ethan salto: Rick Perry is a tool and a ‘tard. I’m just crossing my fingers and hoping he secessions himself out of his primary with Hutchenson. If this were a general election fight, she’d mop the floor with him.
OH COME ON! Your moderation filter makes no sense.
Oh come on yourself and spare me the “My God, how dare you suggest such a thing”.
Palin does nothing for me personally, but if you seriously believe that the driving force behind her popularity among a certain demographic had no connection with her sex appeal, you are in a deep state of denial.
What about those pins that read “The hottest governor from the coolest state” which were being sold at the Republican convention?
Do you think National Review editor Rich Lowry was aroused when he wrote the following after watching Palin’s performance in the VP debate?
@JK: Listen, there was a large contingent of wingers that insisted Man Coulter and Stalkin Malkin were hot. And while there’s no accounting for taste, I honestly think that the gushing over Palin’s physical charms ranked right up there with the praising of George Bush’s amazing intellect.
Wingers wanted something to cheer lead over, and they decided moose-hunting mega babe made a nice bumper sticker slogan. So they pimped the hell out of the message.
I mean, from the crowd that gave us “torture works!”, “the fundamentals of the economy are strong!”, “Iraq is a success!”, and “America First!” how much authenticity and honesty do you really expect? This is just another round of four legs good, two legs better. Line up the sheep.
Palin a hottie? Yuck. There’s nothing partisan about it. As for who thinks she’s hot, she does. The appeal completely misses me. There is something incredibly plastic about that woman, blow up dollish. ***shudder***
If there are 150 million men in this country the lust of some millions isn’t real meaningful. Tina Fey’s contrived Palin was pretty hot…
If men want to indulge in sexual fantasies about Sarah Palin, they can do so to their hearts’ content as far as I’m concerned.
I agree with another Balloon Juice reader who previously wrote that the MSM’s continuing obsession with Palin is fueled by their belief that she is a sex goddess in the eyes of many conservatives. As long as the MSM operates on this assumption, Palin is guaranteed to receive a disproportionate share of media coverage.
I’m just keeping my fingers crossed that Palin’s sex appeal does not translate into her winning the Republican nomination in 2012.
@Zifnab: Guess yer not a Harold and Maude fan.
I’d think it was a better thing than some of the more “reasonable” sounding less “nutter” appearing offerings.
After another 3 years “sex goddess” may be too much of reach even for the sycophants.
@iluvsummr: hehe. Not so much, no.
@JK: Hey, no doubt. I just think the whole “Palin is hot” line is completely contrived. The media runs with it because that’s the line they were feed. And they’ll keep running with it because they are dumb.
Given the trouncing Palin got in November, however, I’d absolutely love to see her tit-flash her way into the Republican Presidential Nomination in 2012. Nothing else would be a bolder sign for 4 more years of Obama.