John McHugh (R, NY-23) was just named Army Secretary. The district is a little less Republican than NY-20 (it has a +1 PVI for Republicans). Democrats won a big special election State Senate race in part of the district a couple years ago. Republicans should have an edge with the PVI plus (I’m assuming) a solid registration advantage and more local elected officials to choose from. My parents live in this district.
The Albany Project should have great coverage of the race. (In fact, they’ve got two great posts up about it already — here and here).
MikeJ
May have a PVI of R1, but Obama took the district with %50.33.
gopher2b
I’m from that area too. I have a few ideas about who could run. It’s very conservative but it also has an strong environmental streak. Its not overly religious. Interesting. Not terribly surprised McHugh bailed; I think he basically lives in DC now anyway.
r€nato
off-topic comment:
I (am forced to) Watch Fox News Channel So You Don’t Have To:
not a single mention of the ‘pro-life’ terrorist who assassinated Dr. George Tiller.
regular mentions of the Muslim gunman who shot a military recruiter in Arkansas.
MikeJ
Hmmm. Booman says Obama won it with %50.33. Swing state project says Obama won 52/47, over a point and a half higher. NY board of elections doesn’t have presidential returns broken down by CD.
McHugh beat the Dem challenger 120k/70k in 2008.
sgwhiteinfla
What will be most interesting about the race will be how the GOP handles the campaign. Will they try a new approach or will they stick ot their guns and go with attacks and fearmongering? To be honest with you moreso than the outcome of the race I think the approach will say a lot. If they just continue what they have always done then I think you can rest assured that the playbook will stay the same during the midterms even if they lose but especially if they win. However if they come with a new approach with a more moderate tone then we might see more of that next year. Don’t forget that one of the reasons people rejected Tedisco was because the establishment was bound and determined to keep using negative campaigning even though he publicly denounced it.
DougJ
I agree.
Cyan
@MikeJ:
I’m just guessing, but the first thing I’d check is whether the discrepancy is that one set of numbers is the actual vote percentage and the other is the two-party vote percentage.
added: Never mind. Booman links the Swing State project as the source of the number.
jcricket
I read on another site that this district will likely disappear after the 2010 census (with NY losing a seat or two). So the McHugh guy was looking for (and found) his graceful exit.
But still, I like this idea that any time a Republican wins (even in a Republican district) it’s suddenly a sign of the GOP’s resurgence.
Sort of like how anything that can be spun as positive indicators for the economy or housing are signs of “green shoots”.
I do not think those words mean what you think they mean.
Fulcanelli
As I mentioned before, Obama has his own Underground Railroad going for moderate Republicans to help preserve the species. Transportation Secretary, Ambassador to China, now Army Secretary and did I forget one?
Man who says something cannot be done should not interfere with man who is doing it, GOP grasshopper.
torrentprime
@sgwhiteinfla:
Well, this comment on Free Republic discussing the nomination is my favorite, and may give a hint on the only GOP line able to be played right now:
Free Republic just makes my day sometimes.
low-tech cyclist
Remember that PVI of 0 represents not a tossup district, but one that is no more Republican nor more Democratic than the nation as a whole. And right now, the nation leans a few points Democratic, so the Dems should be favored in a low-PVI district like this one.
Looking at the Cook PVI page on Wikipedia, it’s clear that the Dems are quite competitive up to about R+6. So barring a lack of viable candidates, we should have game in NY-23, which is R+1.
John Cole
Does anyone know anything about Mchugh- he must be sane because he has flown underneath my radar. Was this a good pick? Is he a decent guy? What is his story?
Brendan
McHugh is an interesting character. I remember that he once got in a pretty nasty shouting match with another member of Congress, though I can’t find the source.
Other than the one hotheaded incident, he’s pretty low key. He has done a lot of legwork on ensuring that Ft. Drum remains open, and he has been pretty aggressive on some environmental issues in the St. Lawrence area. Mainly, he’s tended to the local concerns. I know a good many people on the Lake Ontario south shore who revile the man for his stance on some lake issues, but generally he isn’t a big lightening rod in NY.
I do remember him throwing a fit when Gates first announced the new Pentagon budget, so hopefully he gets in line.
I’m excited to see the candidates selected by the parties for this race. No viable progressive Democrat comes to mind for this region, but this particular CD is pretty expansive.
I’d keep my eye on State Sen. Daniel Aubertine (D), who represents the western portion of the district, including Jefferson, St. Lawrence and Oswego counties. Aubertine won a contentious special in Feb. 2008, and has been a fairly conservative voice. Though Aubertine would make it more likely that we’d take the seat, he’s probably more to the right than we need to settle for with this seat. Plus, it would complicate efforts to hold the NYS Senate.
Jeezum Crow
He most likely flew under your radar because almost no one cares about what happens in NY north of Albany, but I guess he’s not a complete loony either.
McHugh’s an old-fashioned* social conservative and a fiscal moderate. He generally votes the party line, but will work with the Dems (or at least with Chuck Schumer) if it’s for a cause he supports. He does an okay job of representing his constituency, although he’s never had to really work at it since he hasn’t had any serious opposition for at least a decade.
*He’s a pro-life, pro-gun hawk who probably wouldn’t mind repealing DADT, but doesn’t want the gays to marry. He’s not waiting for the rapture or building walls or creationism museums. He voted for the Bailout, and I have no idea what his opinions on Gitmo are.